« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Commentary Podcast June 29

2016-06-29 | 🔗
In this week's podcast, Noah Rothman and Abe Greenwald and I discuss the hysterical response to the British vote to leave the EU, how Hillary and Obama laid a trap for themselves by responding so oddly to the massacre in Benghazi, and how you really can't win an election if you're, you know, losing.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
So it's just another week you know Britain votes to leave the European Union. There is a major terror attack at a highly secure airport in Istanbul, the Supreme Court Effectively put paid to any more state legislative advances by pro life groups: three now Poles have Hillary Clinton, twelve or a five or up to then go the committee. Let us know the president, then secretary of Defence ordered rescue mission during the attack on the consulate and nothing happened, but Marie. Changing in and out of their outfits for a uniform swore times and out compared free trade agreements to rape. Oh and
walk to build. The fund work to combat this equal virus to protect funding for plan parenthood, so happy, fourth of July everybody and welcome the commentary podcast, I'm John ports with me, as always a green walled, our senior editor, high Abe Hygiene and no arrangement or a system online editor high. Now I can. So gentlemen. According to the collective opinion of the entire planet, Great Britain, did something deranged insane: evil horrible short sighted, pointless, idiotic, dangerous threatening monstrous by voting fifty two to forty eight to exit the European Union on last Thursday night Friday morning, never seen a more sustained explosion of
rage against an electric of the sort that we ve The aim here both in Britain and and in the United States and the presumption somehow that something so awful might have happened here. I am struck by the fact A lot of the cases that are being made against breaks it. Have a Burke intends to them. That is that this is an institution of great importance, Interwoven, the European Union into civilization, and that it is foolhardy to imagine that one can survive outside such an interim of an institution except, of course, for the fact. The European Union has been in existence for twenty three years. Twenty three years and the
high handedness and on them behaviour of the central european government in Brussels, which is really the even cause of the the british hunger to depart from breaks. It certainly not anything Burke in as we would understand it. It speaks to know constituency except the governance of the governments, from birth or of the one world government idea that's that centres in the European Union so on I myself had- I lived in Britain, probably would have voted against exiting. The European Union on the grounds that it was a risky thing to do, unforeseen and unforeseeable consequences and that the status quo
well well problematic. Might Nonetheless, a the thing to protect I'm really quite astonished and discussed by the way people are talking as though Britain's who have every reason to believe themselves, a singular nation of both present and historical importance, apart from the continent which it its task to save twice in the twentieth century boat, with with the with an alliance with the United States and other countries separated from the continent by a by water, not a great the more water them in England separated from the continent, that is a standing country on its own, with a very powerful military nuclear weapons and a gigantic economy,
that the notion that it is it should simply be one of twenty eight. Countries being Lord it over by Germany certainly understand Me why the argument against it. Was so passionately believe them and why there was such a silent majority in support of it. A what's your take. Yeah might might take. I was stunned by the reaction I mean I I I wanted to see someone who didn't have strong feelings about breaks. It because I was, I was ambivalent. I didn't I didn't quite know. I would fall. Given your scenario, if I were, if I were there, I don't know what I'd do, what would have done, but what but and and clearly there are great risks involved, but blew my mind was that the the Anti camp after the fact
They weren't open to the discussion that this could be bad. It could be good could be somewhere in between this was Certain sky is falling disaster and I think that really speaks to me could in fact be good about it, which is that it might be Beginning of the end of the sort of Toby in drift nets, hell West, for I dont know two decades or so and certainly came to, full fruition during the Obama years, when it struck me that when one Obama became president and was asked about american exceptionalism and questions exception was more nationalism or suddenly now being revisited. Dead, famously he believes American is the United States is exceptional and, in the same way that he supposes Greeks believed Greek is.
Optional. One end and great Britain believes Britain is, he is exceptional and so on. In other words, there is now much of the case in his mind for for objective exceptionalism and now at the end of his at the end of his cell, term it soon like there's a there's, a push back on this notion on this. Let's all, let's all go go along with that with this subjective excel journalism and answered pooled effort to tune to level things the other danger of in a backlash internationalism, which I think everybody in this room is for of isn't necessarily a productive form of nationalism could certainly be in more in we're, looking isolationism and that's the over correction that I think we were kind of witnessing
What was there a case to be made for for the European Union? Not really the European Union has been a failure on its own terms. Was it with a design, It was designed to create a sort of set of economic standards that it has never unable to implement successfully. Although those states on its periphery, the south, the pigs as it were quote unquote, have always been sort of eating at the large ass of the central part of the continent, which is continually baling them out, it cannot keep. The peace has been. The most fatuous argument has been. The united. The European Union has kept the peace on the continent as we have a war raging on the periphery, which it's just just nipping at the heels of Eastern Europe. Well, wait. There was a war on the continent at the time of the European Union.
Founding that the European Union did absolutely nothing to solve, it was the United States entry into the former yugoslavian conflict that brought that conflict to an end. I think it's fair to say that there is no argument for the European Union, but the argument is technocratic and nature. It's the notion that a unified european super state, let's call it can create trade opportunities and travel opportunities and free flow of goods and services and people opportunities, but the United States enjoys because the United States is a unified country that that's the model on which the European Union was base. The problem, I think, is that if you think about
What's going on in Europe for the last three years, the bail out of Greece, the treatment of Angela Merkel, the Germans. Counselor in Greece, after the Germans basically agreed to use their national bank to bail Greece out, calling her a few are because she, since that on some payment schedule or which Greece who have to make good on on them on the money that was being given it and then, of course, the main thing, which is the refugee scandal, which was which I think everybody understands was grievously mishandled that it was the foolish foolish effort on the part of Merkel and others to over correct. Let's say for indifference to the human rights
of people during World war. Two to assert that it would take em, but will now be millions of migrants with almost no ability to check who they are and what their purposes are. And that, of course, is the was the hidden emotional issue, not so hidden in
Britain that is leading people to describe this brexit vote as racist and send a phobic. But you know the simple fact of the matter is one doesn't view you know the v in migration of a couple million people from the world's most war torn and breeding grounded area for four slash: four terror and chaos. It would be foolish to look at that and think that was just something that humanitarian tears and a great willingness to be open, hearted that that wouldn't answer to dealing with the very specific problem of who are these people? How do you track them? How do you track where they came from
and high and end with free movement around more than twenty countries, the kind of power that can be perpetrated by by just a very few of them, and it is also another example of how some sort of utopian thinking- paradoxically serve pretty Mr Liese, desired outcome, because there was something creation of the European Union in General that wasn't did the sort of de fang nationalism to some extent on a continent where we're nationalism had had been obviously world historic problem on several occasions, but as well as we see over the past few years, there been arctic? Nationalism have have arisen on the continent now worse than worse than prior to the formation of the union
for on the on the right and left and in countries like France and Hungary, in Greece and so on, and certainly and in terms of that goal. Its failed and failed enlargement because of the immigration question because being immigration question, because that's that sort of when people can? I have a second, How does a rethink on this on this? On this question of who we are, and but it's all sort of like were arguing over what brand of cough drop? Who is really going to save this? This really gonna. Stop this call No one is talking and that's really the heart of the problem with the European Union in Europe in General and its own, that United States problem as well we're all arguing over the symptoms of a disease that is as it. Roots in the syrian civil crisis that nobody has been interested in containing militarily and it will take military intervention in order to contain it.
And its engulf the the arab world, and now it's sort of leaching its way into Europe proper- we have very little evidence that a lot of these refugees are not causing violence. It's actually homegrown self radicalized members of these ghettos that dog have any interest in or experience with integration into the european societies in which they were born needs. Host of problems. Here they have very little to do with with the refugees themselves in a lot to do with european culture of just broke, estimation in an obvious station from what these real difficult issues are with with, thrill integration, what mean I have to say that in a sense it there reminds me of something that I sort of like about breaks it, which is that it too, to sound funny is that it is a bit of a risk. I mean,
isn't there something sort of noble that it's not just yet another article about how Europe has lost its heavy. You has lost its moral standing. How it's become this overgrown beer I foresee you know it's not just another speech. You know, I mean many p, I respect and like great deal, who have written said these things over the past ten years are now Sir Skull in Britain. For for wanting to actually get out onto on top of these criticisms- and I think there's you know that an understandable birchen reluctance to to sort of act, boldly in defiance of institutions. But, as you say, I'm in Britain is a much older, greater institution in this than this than the EU and. And it's also assertion by the british people. Let's say in this case really primarily the english people, that they are not done being a great civilization. I mean that is you could call
sentimental. That's why there's all this talk about? How was only the old people who voted for the young people were firm were for staying in the EU, and this is all some kind of retrogressive fantasy, but the other we could look at it- is, as I say that Britain looks of itself- and it says: we are the progenitors of all Many, if not most, of the great modern ideas about freedom, economic liberty, bringing western culture and western values to the world and had who maintain the had to be the gown term order in Europe from The early nineteenth century onwards, as Europe was constantly falling apart and falling the flames and then the twentieth century,
were the salvation of Europe in me now, in part or in large measure, and we're not done get we're not over we're. Not we're not a subset of something called Europe? We are England we have our own currency. We have our own language. We have our own literature We have our own view things and we are not done yet. This is to build on combating something, as I said earlier, is that this is one of my biggest pet thieves with american commentary on this issue has been, in my opinion, something very lazy and kind of chauvinist stick which has been to super. Imposed trump over this thing and there's one way to look at it as though it sort of retrospective. But I don't think it is the scene very much a forward thinking moving because if you listened anybody who is an advocate for this thing over the course of the last year, they been making the case like Emmy P, Daniel Hannan,
is that they ve been saying that this is a stultifying organisation that is trying to enshrine these old, very protectionist trade policies and regulatory schemes. Labour regulations on Britain that don't fit. Britain EU is very good at protecting the brand of cheap. That is native to Greece, but it's it's really quite terrible at adapting to the model global economy and their counter vision is sort of a real, the with the anglo sphere. And that is revolutionary and forward thinking and is not protectionist and backward land by the way. The the general line has been that the supporters of leaving the European Union are all a bunch of re, just revamp just idiots moron, from the veto from the basque country. Whereas in fact the reason this issue has remained at the forefront of british culture for forty years is an intellectual movement against
closer integration with Europe, not relations with your not not play. Bending timing, Europe not having friendly relations with the other countries of Europe, but not in being integrate with Europe. That is the lead the two leading voices on breaks it in England are Johnson and Michael Goave, who began their political, began, their careers as writers and journalists. Him Borscht Johnson was eventually was the editor of the spectator, but he was. He was a correspondent for the daily telegraph. Go with editorial writer for the times of London and wrote, columns and little bee lie like if I you know, in Congress of then led some giant political I mean that's. Who Michael is, is you know he's he's he's me John pejorative english terms, except that he has
They went into politics and that's what's interesting about it he's. This is not a pop. This job thing it is actually comes from, very high system at a belief in the greatness of the country. In which these people live and the notion that it is therefore an active, vengeance against their own future. Even if it's a bad idea. That is, that is an argument that is being made in bad faith So too is the argument. I think, because what you just described as also criticized along the line, Well, then, it's just so it's breaks it sort of stop abstractions as support To the d, the reality of of EU and end the relative peace that that has accompanied it and that's no judge just because there their ideas that
calling something you can always denigrate. Principles is abstractions, but there, but their principles and that's ok, just because there there, I d is that that doesn't make them ignoble that doesn't make them unrealistic and mean that makes them. That makes them a start, and I think that during I mean, I also think or something slightly ignoble. In what David Cameron it didn't resigning? Six. Five hours after after leave one, even though It was his decision to argue call for the referendum, it was his decision to schedule the referendum when it was scheduled. It was his decision to make the argument. He is the elected leader effectively and his party won, but he's the elected leader. Breton policy didn't go his way and its understandable why he would want to wash his hands of it, but this wouldn't have happened without him,
he could administer it and then resign instead and he's like heading for the hills, because he doesn't like what happened in he's, embarrassed and humiliated, and all of british politics is being overthrown right now, eventually, Jeremy Corbett labour leader will will be run out, so he'll be gone care. And will be gone. The whole country, It will pause for three months to figure who's. Gonna leave these two parties as they to figure out how they're going to extract themselves, but kind of irresponsible to leave. This move to say taking my ball in and then I'm going home, sometimes This is where maybe they're system isn't as Why isn't, as was ill hinders hours or something? You know the president, It states doesn't just make the laws he doesn't make the laws. He is supposed to administer the laws and he has a veto over the passage of certain laws. But when
lot, but if there is a law that he doesn't like he's supposed to administer it anyway. If there is a policy that place he is supposed to administer it anyway if it is not overturned and it might have been a more noble fish for Cameron to have done in this case, but an go. This vote and the future of the Tory Party, is belongs with the Pro Breck Centre, which is why pretty stabilizing two days to switch I am not, I think, the the fear is that he had lost legitimacy. He might have lost confidence vote and the future of the Tory Party is belongs with the pro breaks at her, which is why Boris Johnson or even Teresa may will emerges. The lake leave future of that party is opposed somebody who is against breaks at ascribing Omagh parliamentary. You could have done it, you could have, they could have been done in a different. It could have been done in a different way but but but but there it is. I mean it's a weird I m, looking like Jeremy Carbon, whose whose just a recalcitrant
Now I don't think so. I think he would say, respect the views of the people and we are gonna. We're gonna down enter into negotiations to fulfil the mandate of the referendum that I called you know Which will I called the referendum, you voted. I will now administer the results as the person who called the referendum. You know I mean that's the Mai parliament will have to vote on it, but you know nobody ordered him to call it. The could have ye could have never called it. Actually, people make politicians make promises all the time. You know presidents promised to move the embassy from TEL Aviv to Jerusalem and they never do it. He could not have called the breaks it vote. So that's all let's. Let's move on to who terrorism a very present and then terrorism recent past, so we have the horrible bomb suicide bombing coordinated at at
The airport, in Istanbul with a couple hundred casualties and what appears to be a very complex, systematic plot, where two bombers blew them cells up and in the confusion to more people than entered the airport, to shoot the place up horrible and, of course, almost certain even though Turkey's great enemies is Syria, which is also the great enemy of of ISIS. It's almost certainly ISIS. It looks like ice as everybody era, one. The prime minister said that it was ISIS that happened, at night on the same day as the release of the very thoughtful and income. Plex House report on on the Benghazi, nightmare of September, eleventh twenty twelve.
Horribly, miss, characterize and unfairly, was characterized as a pointless exercise. As when, in fact it appears to be a very descriptive sis descriptive. Portrait of a systematic failure that it is very important, the, U S, government, take notice of a note of and future scholars, so that so that some mistakes that were made, all of which were many which were inadvertent or simply the result of bad organization, bad systems and add procedure that those that those can be corrected. Its a good report, not a bad report, politics of it. There were very interesting, I think, because they really do involve Hillary Clinton in the and the issue was not Hillary Clinton. The issue is Barack Obama and to some extent, the White House and what went on two in the White House and the Pentagon,
and what went on in the Pentagon. When we are told that the President and the secretary then Secretary defense, we I'm fanatic, authorized some kind of rescue attempt at the mission in Benghazi, and nothing happened. There's there were some idea back in the eighties that Ronald Reagan had ordered a strike against targets in Lebanon after the bombing of the Marine barracks there, and that the Defence Department had somehow neglected to fulfil the order, but no one's ever actually systematically prove that to be the case like there's no piece of paper that says: Reagan Reagan dead this, but is pretty clear from the report that this did happen, that something was was authorized, but that no one moved the work. The movement just simply didn't happen. That's pray
frightening ape, and you know, even on the deception end of things, the admitted creation. The White House is implicated, What more wholly than Clinton, because there is there's the record of of Ben Roads, saying focus on the film, as the private progress on the offensive, The anti muslim internet film, as a vacation for Ngos Not yet something on paraphrasing. You know not not any so keep keep a focus off of any failed policies where what's So a lot happened in the course of four five very confusing days, leading up to the infamous appearance on the Sunday talk shows of Susan Rice, whose bad, whose whose bad performance they are effectively made it impossible for her to become Hillary Clinton, successor,
secretary of state, but even that these events are very complex and very confusing we do know is that there were some systematic decision made. Muddy the question of whether this was an outcome Attack to commemorate the September eleventh bombings in the territory of of two thousand and one and that the administration did not wish that to be the understanding it wished to muddy the waters. Hillary Clinton send an email to Chelsea Clinton, saying it was an Al Qaeda strike at one thousand. One hundred and twenty three p dot m before strike as even over and at seven thirty in the morning, her admit the mist, in her name or a bad at some time that night issues a statement that does not mention this but mentions the famous infamous dude video innocence of Muslims that had caused a right
earlier in the day in Cairo, as though it. Had been the ass, though it had been the general cause of the Benghazi attacks What about you referring to is in his also part in his Testimony to the Benghazi Commission, Ben Roads the White House, Deputy national Security advisor. Said that he had wished That to be in there, but not because it was about Benghazi to win whoever was who was questioning him. If you look at the report, it section. Two of the report its thirty nine. I think so so a statement that says statement on the terror attacks in Benghazi. Is not about Benghazi, and he says yes, that's right. This was not a bad thing. It was wet troubles in the region so
maybe that's that's why Hillary Clinton is an entirely off the hook in this report, although it does implicate the administration that she was a part of more than than her by everybody was complicit in this act of two plus. Of of, obfuscation for- and it was obvious case you I think, is a better wormy look. It is fair to say there are two things would be fair to say, one is that everyone- everyone is implicated The other is that there was a lot of fog. Nobody knew what was going on the reporting, in other brow record with scant, but it was the case of what was wanted. That's what's so interesting Clinton while Avonlea want. Why would you want this to be about a video and about Al Qaeda? Because you can't attack movement? You can't you can't take we're bond to a public out age over an internet video, but you can respond.
To a terrorist attack by finding where the people are, who did it and then going after them with bombs and soldiers. It's it's it's simple. Never it's a really simple thing to understand something. I rode earlier this this week as well as that outcomes There is on the side of people who say that this administration didn't want it central real narrative GM is I've been ok, is most is then Al Qaeda on the run. Didn't want that scuttled in little six weeks before an election. See, I have thought this from the time. The moment the Benghazi happened until Now- and I I mystified by it The President United States comes out he's a brok. Obama comes out the morning of the after the attack, and he says you does the word terror, but he doesn't say he doesn't. In context turns out to be very useful when he must seriously
demands. The candy Crawley in the second debate, with Mitt Romney weed out portions of a transcript he had a reason to know candy Crowley had sitting there on the table for her to read out from pointing that he used the word terror in some context but he comes out of it. It said. On the anniversary of September eleventh. Our continent. Benghazi was attacked Our ambassador was killed and three other brave Americans were murdered. We knock and arrest rest until we find the killers and bring them to justice and serve justice on them for this attack? Thank you very much, and why back into the White House, he wouldn't even have had to do anything, Mitt Romney would have had to commend his statement everywhere in the country would have said. Will that seems very reasonable it has nothing to do with whether Bin Laden is dead. End quote,
because it wasn't Al Qaeda, was it was onto our last summer. Was this girl should bob? You know offshore. Groups here still stuck with the merit of that they have that they destroyed Central Al Qaeda. I am I find mystifying, it is almost as though they were two stupidly connected to this narrative to an ad when AB campaign line not to the political damage they could have taken in silencing the republic. Party six weeks before the election on a foreign policy issue. While it wouldn't, they have had to authorize some sort of retaliatory strike and point. We don't know you could have said a lot. It took fair first it took the United States a month after nine eleven six weeks after nine slash eleven to hit Afghanistan. We didn't go the week after didn't go two weeks after and it was You know it wasn't. Did this wasn't
anything is made. He could have said we were doing it, we're going underground. Whatever I'm just saying Most cynical way could have done nothing and it would have been better and they're paying for it now, because Hilary would be walking into this election. If none of this happened, no one would have found out about the emails but the whole issue of her trustworthiness that has arisen, because her behaviour in relation to the emails for the last. Sixteen seventeen eighteen months would never have arisen. Because it would have been no reason to investigate the administrations response to Benghazi, which was baffling and mysterious, what I'm saying is the rule cause of the reason Congress went to investing in the first place, no yea, and you are right when you think about it. It's an astounding thing because it wasn't the the reaction of the administration wasn't to cover up,
for their own actions. It was fifty to cover up for the perpetrator. Not not in sympathy with them, but to sort of, but to draw detention or away from them? I mean that That's a sort of that's an insect. Yet somehow I still say it's bad right. I still say it's baffling: no, because they wanted something out of IRAN. I mean The thing like you know, Obama at once want the grand bargain with IRAN is one of great and want to grant bargain with Al Qaeda. You just had they just had come up with an ad line that they were defending. And you know, circumstances change in elections. A new can change the way you sell yourself, and it was an opportunity, not a cost. That's what So and then you know it took the administration you people forget like for me, after They were lost in a constant barrage of questions about. Why did they say it? Who did it? What happened?
and you know having to concede two weeks later, as Hilary the two weeks after the attack that it was a terrorist attack and then Obama claiming in that second debate that he had said that it was a terror attack the morning after when clearly he had not because he had used the word terror. No act of terror is going to stop America from finding its purposes. Right. Now I was there. I thought I'd forgotten. We do exactly how he had sorted this passive. Yet her so, as I say, I think there is some kind of karmic justice in The fact that we You have come to this pass, I do how I think that the report makes the more stream rage at Clinton and Obama about Benghazi, very problematic on certain sectors of the room. Because the notion that you know.
Something there happened. That was very bad. It was a very competent and it's a terrible thing, but it was not an act of you know: malfeasance, they did not get Chris Stevens and the four people killed. That's not what happened, and something else happened that was pretty bad. Now moving on to our favourite subject back in policies and just in the last six days. We have three different national poles. One from the wash imposed ABC that has And has Hillary Clinton up by twelve one from NBC that has no real by five one today from Canopy ACT that has Hilary up by the one common now, the boy common standard and olive and every pull that we have now seen for the latter? six weeks is the Donald Trump is
Oh, is that forty or under gets fair to say that you can't win with forty percent of the vote in November, and that's where we are now. You have some thought, this year, while the latter, of conversation among pole waters. This week seems to be there's a big broad divergence between national poles and state poles, and that's it Will your conversation? We all had it and twenty twelve twenty twelve. There was a big discrepancy between the National Poles, which show them a very favourable environment for Mitt Romney, even a little bit ahead We had a competitive rates and state level poles, which showed pretty much the opposite situation very much of the path toward the income and being reelected, which is obviously what happened so here we are
many years later and the same sort of dynamic is is it is appearing in which national polls show Hillary Clinton doing very well on path to a twin, easy election electoral victory and then something a bit different happening on the state level and over an hour, Cp David Viler, real, clear, Paul, real, clear politics has a very good. Peace on this? Basically conceding, I don't know you don't know nobody knows, but there is also the there's the path, two options here. One is that state level poles are lagging indicator and they'll catch up to national pulls. The other is that We really are seeing sort of a shift. Demographic in the map, so that you have done Trump appealing to demographic that traditionally dont vote Republican and yet there not really affecting the national poles so because he Donald Trump appeals more to why
people than he does spanish voters he's sort of soft in Texas, but does really well in New England more so than he would normally now it's not gonna flippers eight New England, but it's gonna shift. The nuts nationally a little bit. So that's that's interesting, but still not sufficient to result in any sort of great change in the map. I think we're still looking at what is a pretty predictable election year, which looks like just about every other election year. That's pretty predictable. The polls show up, but not a competitive race and everybody's, expecting something to happen in November, or something happened rather in autumn, which doesn't happen, and we kind of feel like the the outcome is in doubt when the outcome has been predicted and is predictable over the core last year. Well, the one problem that The people who want to look at the polls and say the staples are more favourable to Trump, as they are more favourable to trumpet still losing an awkward
still behind and all of them, that is behind. Ok, fine, he's behind within the margin of error, so that makes it a jump all. But at some. You know at some point the guy is gonna have to lead in Ohio and lead in you know, the way that he wins, the selection of Amr one three hundred and thirty, two electoral votes is yes to take three states away from a bomb and not lose any two Hilary. So we have to win Ohio and Virginia and Florida or a high o in Pennsylvania Florida Virginia Florid intends let it may who I came. Remember, which ones at up to what and then she can't take any from him, break as Obama by the way lost. You know, lost a couple of states that he had won in two thousand in the North Carolina and if we just give those two trump that you know that was an anomaly and trump gets those, but
oh Hilary is competitive in Utah, it looks like she's competitive in Arizona, and you know could take Ohio, which would be a huge pull for him and then lose. Utah Arizona, and then nothing really change that much. He's gotta start women somewhere, and I don't think I'm going to say it. Ten thousand times, everybody seems to think that everyone in this country is now against free trade and fine. Maybe the environment has totally shifted trade has now become a voting issue at Anti free trade law has become a voting issue for people in the United States. It has not been for forty years people who have been betting on it for decades of it hasn't happened, so maybe it'll happen now the amount of steel and that's the heart,
was in Pennsylvania, yeah a lot of steel businesses, a lot of steel mills closed beginning in the early ninetys, not because of NAFTA and not because of trade agreements, they closed because steel produce. Steel got firstly more efficient and you could do with a lot fewer people and if you didn't end You needed fewer people and fewer males to produce the same amount of steel, and that's the hall. That's not globalization, that's the horror of increasing products, productivity, for a century manufacturing and while all those jobs were lost, new jobs particularly in health care, came along to net the state, more jobs than it had before the big decline and in the in the early nineties. So This notion that you know every these jobs were lost and everybody you ever worked in them never worked again is a myth
it's a total have and if he goes around saying that trade agreements are like rape, I I think that rhetoric, like that, is going to help him very much that take something. That is arguable proposition turns it into a cartoon, makes it easy to make. It says that this is not a serious argument, he's making he's just blowing his traditional, vulgar smoke and when it comes again to the main question, which is: how are you gonna trust with the next the story of the country for the next four years, Hilary should be an easy target, except for Guy, who goes around saying that agreements are like rape, which some seem like not that safe a choice, finally- because in this case on the substance, She's not really.
Attached she's she's she's taken her least you know pro free trade position ever so it's really all about the tone so what are they gonna? Do they go into debate and then is she going to defend too promotion. Is she going to defend the trade deal with the tp? Now know she's she's, just on how she's gonna write so so we now have two presidential candidates who are you know who have now decided that this deal is dead. So I guess you'll be dead. So what benefit is he gonna? Get that he's he's he hey worse than she does he's gonna attack at work she's been disingenuous, I'm sure she likes it. Fine and she is you know, again, maybe we're seeing a big shift here: and there's a lot of wine and going on about how terrible traders and people have been set. Into believing it and want, therefore, to have their bills at Walmart. Go up by twenty percent, so good You know that's really great, no one
explains the other side of what happens in globalization like the fact of consumer goods and the United States have remain the cost of consumer goods and has remained flat for twenty years. That has never happened in the history of economies anywhere on earth. That clothing gets less expensive. That electronics and compete who's got less expensive that you know the that that the goods that people want to buy that they can buy. You know a pair pants arguably thirty percent cheaper than they could thirty years ago. That's what's that that's the benefit of trade and no one is making that argument, but that's the truth of it. This is kind of my problem with that the pole watching argument that just kind of shrugged his shoulders and says can't possibly know. What's gonna happen, we don't have enough data were in the midst. Where evades in the woods. Things are really weird this year, the really not the poles, not bad in the primary is like they were in
when he fourteen other old couple of states Michigan for the Democrats, what the disaster, but you know that was one Poland. I love her and I work for the GNP so that the two poles out of a hundred. Primaries and Caucasus, and the poles have been very consistent for over a year now, when it comes to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and it shows a five point race and we don't have a political and by where the map shifts that radically go back to two thousand and seven before you go back to two thousand. We had a day even race, where that the candidate who lost one the popular vote, which is itself, is wild and bizarre, but Al Gore, one about and he lost Ohio in Florida and Nevada in New Hampshire and then began in Missouri and North Carolina. You can't even imagine anything like that happening this time round is just that kind of shift is generational. It doesnt have overnight, we're not going to see that kind of, a wild demographic change, occur this year because this just to
all right we're right, although as a country right, although it still the case that Donald Trump is gonna, have to get that number up. Ten points from forty to fifty. If gonna win the election, if he's in the thirties right Now- and that's ok, so this is the other thing that's making every too crazy is there's a ballot. Pdf pull the came out today, which is driving everybody nuts, because it shows Hillary Clinton up to the tune of over fifty and in Florida in Miss again and in the high forties verging on fifty percent in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia North Carolina and then, and also in Ireland, then Donald Trump, where he's at in the linen oh thirties, and just at forty percent in Iowa and that's about it, and so he might actually be in the thirties If he's in the thirties, I think it's fair to say that absent an earthquake or some gigantic.
Cultural, generational and indeed, civilization will shift that is not showing up in the polls and that will shock will will knock everybody on their heels. Election day. That he's done now that call be the case, but you bet on those things, and I want to point out that everybody who wants to say well, you know Briggs, it was losing, it wasn't, losing bread lost the last couple of days of the polling, but this for the three weeks before it was hide or winning by a couple of points and one by a couple of points. So you know we we will never have seen if trump we're covers if what we are seeing here is an accurate depiction of what the position situation is now, which is what pulling is supposed to be a snapshot of the present mood, if true, recovers turns things around and wins, we're gonna be seeing something that is world historical and nature either, because he,
rally like no these business like Gerald Ford, did at night in seventy six coming back from being twenty seven to nearly winning route, winning reelection come back thirty points losses got forty eight percent of the vote in eighteen, seventy six or We will be seeing something where voting trouble so socially unacceptable. That he's already one he's all right he won and it's not showing up and nothing that happens between now and election day is gonna shake that that is actually the belief. The convict The people who think that Trump is gonna win is that is that some big is happening, it's that died Bob Dylan Light. What is it you something's going on here and you don't know what it is? Do you Mister Jones right that way? dont know and the Trump has captured public mood and it's not showing up in the polls and it's all sides, all Sub Rosa m- he's one
and she could do whenever she could do and shall spend that he won't spending money and it's all gonna happen and that's magical thinking. I mean you know, there's a mild chance. It's true, but I you know we ve never seen anything like that before the believe in then those shied tory voter. That's it does actually evidence for that. I guess, but not like a ten point. Anything no. Like a two point thing, I mean the famous Bradley effect where people voted voted again. Tom Bradley, the mayor of LOS Angeles, but didn't, wanna say so, because he was blackmailing one again. Racism was about two and a half points That was a real effect to enact points is a real effect, of course, the democratic much better the vote machine. Then, will you could have years? If there's a shy, Tory Effect, Democrats get it. Basically, two percent advantage just get up, oh, if something doesnt turn around here, because
there's so much better at it, and the Republicans have no money and Trump is raising. No money. I'm so they're, not gonna, have enough machine to go it to go at pillory. The problem is, this is gonna, be really boring to say the election is over for the next. However, many weeks ten can we look, we didn't look. I remembered ninety. Ninety six was the first we first year that the weekly standard had no soon to cover when we started the weekly standards in September, by God, you know we blew Bob Doll was zero. Twenty that twenty points down at some point it was like Bob Dull, what's the Senate as this is what its work you know them come and go Bob Dole, and his speech at the convention could really turn things around me: You know a new people,
rally themselves to these are to keep an interesting as well as a really interesting. Vice presidential picky made that's out. You can really see. Oh Hilary did not make a good speech that was speech. That's really gonna hurt You know like that, and then they'll be a couple of debates and then you know and then Clinton one by nine. Now, let me set which which was there Appalling, you know from echo it. You could excellent was gonna eat. All I'm saying is quarter of ninety six seven, Two percent economic growth built was gonna win the presidency, but people manage somehow. I can tell you, there was a kind of weird you call it like you know there was a kind of a weird refusal to be taken these data points and just give up you know. Well, you know, I think what was genuine this past week. The american media is fear there
breaks. Right means Trump. Yes, it is, is gonna get a second and that's a lot of what fuelled. Probably this really distasteful, anti populist, the latest reaction to popular, I think you're absolutely right. I think apps Trump, the coverage of bread, It would have been very daddy. It's been a year of people, a cry. The world of elites across the world. Looking at the rise of trump with horror, and then seeing something that might be a harbinger civilization, harbinger and being verified by the way you know the it is True, that these things do sometimes harmonise, I mean the conservative shift in the early eighties, would trance land. Italy was real. You had better than Reagan, then Germany, and a blocking Helmut Kohl? I mean you had this kind of a wave of concern. The leadership that
was clearly related. Although and clearly related in part, because each of these victories was based in a failure domestically too. Plastic, failure and sense of malaise in the country in which the revolution the place, but it was still still show up in the polls still. You still really see it in the polls, there were still in the middle of a real of of for further decorum quote. You know it I wish the people who are in charge right now who, if everybody supposedly hates doesn't want to see. You know continue in their in their governments to do. Brok. Obama has a fifty six percent approval raining according to wash imposed ABC, it's better than he is then in his second term. Yet we are in a very weird. Always a lot of contradictory and problematic information.
In all of this, and that's one of the reasons why you can't assume that anything is a harbinger of anything, because there are too many conflicting, There will be a bowling month, though I predict for the Republican. National variety. Our the convention, Slash foe, Waidelich talent show is about is going to be there. I don't know, I don't know you know, I'm listening to what they're saying here so lucid, something a bunker trump said today about how you gonna have a lot of athletes, and and coaches and ass leads a business leaders and all of that and man does that? That's boring! That's not this notion. That's gonna be more interesting. It's the GNP has got talent No, but that's not! The gnp has got talent. You know you gotta, listen to some coaches yelling at a better in into the microphone, and you know it. Why really business leaders there really exciting and how we ever be ever seen. It later on,
We see like that's what you really want, who got even those who who that'll be our so called like on car like on and you know how many times in Karl, I can't speak me. I guess he could speak every night. I mean again like he'll get bump, and then she shall get above a bigger above the next week. He'll have you know, I don't know who he'll have he'll have ten new no he's not gonna have to do that at an inch and orderly greenland. Ok, now legally, would know TAT Nugent by the guy. I don't know who will have but the next week. You know they'll, be production. Member from how you know whatever he has dealt with, no Hilary will have beyond stay and production number and production number from Hamilton and it'll be a lot more impressive cultural p than the GEO P display. So
That's where we are. I wish you all a very happy fourth of July in the graves country on earth. This has been the commentary amazing, podcast commentary. Monthly magazine of of ideas, policy from a conservative perspective, please When our conversation commentary magazine dot com, it's free reeds, and we then ask you to subscribe for nineteen, ninety nine a year you get are told Digital Access, an Ipad happen, all kinds and wonderful things, and for twenty men and women you get our magazine as well. So. We'll be back to you next week.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-27.