The last COMMENTARY podcast of 2017 not only takes up the tax bill and the hysterical response to it but, in a stunning new development, features Abe Greenwald, Noah Rothman, Sohrab Ahmari, and me listing the best and worst things that happened in 2017, the thing we thought would happen that didn't, and some predictions for 2018. Give an end-of-year listen!
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some regions. Oh. Welcome to the last commentary, pod guest of Twenty- seventeen. I am John onwards, the editor of commentary magazines, seventy three year old, monthly of political probity. Collection, analysis and cultural criticism. From a conservative perspective, you should can and will join us a commentary magazine dot com where we give you a few free reason. Ask you to subscribe, one thousand nine hundred and ninety five for eight subscription twenty men. Ninety five ran all access of social, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year with me.
In the holiday spirit, the shortest day of the year. Green, while their senior rather high by John, I'm always in the holiday spare you hear around you are mister- do are theirs mistletoe hanging above your head right now, nor raw when our associated or high, now John many modern, elevated, very, were you know, I'm happy but I dont have Europe. Even I don't have Christmas trees where you have a Christmas tree near and I'm I'm like full brimming with you now If I were a wig Christmas fairly, Eric rimming die, I think we'd be off Brandon and we gotta have their morality somewhere. That's right at the end of the newly printed Christian does or of Mari down. In your writer s finishing his memoir in the coming weeks and months on on his conversion to Catholicism is incorrect.
So another of another, a glorious event of twenty seventeen, no Rossman has finished a book. Will be coming out next year, so that this is a very productive we're in a very productive frame of mind here. Cheerful, we're happy were excited we got. Vacation coming up next week, so we won't have shows next week. The family, the Paris, so I'm excited about that Don't leave one home I don't have enough to forget. You know I only have three, so it's not like, I can do not forget women and John candies not around, The drive you home. That's right. That's very sad, very sad indeed, so you brought up death. Article had refrained from the untimely death of a bit of a young comic talent, just to be me down from my from my Pappy mood. Peggy mood in part- and I wouldn't say, is inspired by or even all that much affected by, but certainly it
comes around the same time as what no Rossman is calling the single best day of the Trump presidency. Right yesterday, the House and the Senate passage of the tax bill of twenty seventeen and the corresponding psychic meltdown of those who oppose the bill on social media and and elsewhere. So I don't know that we are in a position to serve debate, thee, the or discuss all that much the specific provision, The bill all I'll say about it is that in the end, as it came out, it is a fairly conventional republican tax. Cunning bill
while Reagan cut taxes in eighteen. Eighty one George W Bush cut taxes in two thousand and one George H. W Bush did not cut taxes, but rather raise them in exchange for control, for spending controls and, unlike the younger Bush, and the only Reagan only got one term and was voted out of office, thus indicating, I think, as a matter of general principle, that Republicans, as Robert Novak lay calmness said. Put on earth to cut taxes. Trump knows this. Paul Ryan knew this every Republican in the house and send it pretty much, except for representatives in high tech states whose wealthier constituents are gonna, be hammered by the limitation of the state and local tax reduction. No there.
Some that's where that's where we are today so fairly conventional bill featuring tat, you know right reductions in all categories and some tax reform in the form of the limitation of the state level, tax collection and the and and limits in the mortgage interest. Deduction or robes of tightening of the warrior suggests that the level at which you can deduct the mortgage interest, lowering from a million two seven hundred and fifty as dollars, but mostly just mostly and primarily, a gigantic corporate tax cut in order to corporate both corporations and pass throughs, thus corporations- larger businesses, passers being intervene. Subchapter s corporations, often very small businesses with you, no nine or fewer employees, or even a single, employ fewer freelancer taxes.
Lord on all those categories, and so that's. What we have here is a conventional and the response to the conventional republican tax cut is what Noah Apoplexy apoplexy is one thing. Hysteria is another area and rhetorical overkill, the likes of which You rarely seen in an american life, so there are two categories of democratic responses, with some overlap from very committed anti trump Republicans who shed at two two stages of apoplexy to this bill. The first was from politicians and professional pundits who it before the passage of this bill were calling it arm again. I am actually using the word Armageddon the worst bill imaginable. You know you will be on.
Able to navigate this world that will be sterilised of anything good and positive. In the aftermath of this bill, we will all be huddled together. The devil is in the living. Let me the dead that sort of thing, and then there was a second stage of apoplexy button Often politicians are professional pundits but from the activists class, and that came as a response to the passage of this bill and the immediate reaction from five major companies which announced that they would be as don't do this bill reinvesting in capital and providing small for figure lump sum bonuses to their hundreds of thousands of employees politicians didn't reactor that so much, but the activist class rent God. Events in apps, loot agony over the horror of this development because in their minds, these five companies were lobbying administration, trend of butter up the Trump administration by giving them
Making the tax cut, look like it had an immediate impact, the economy. In order to get the regulatory bodies that are overseeing their various regulatory cases to go easy on the right well, ah We do not have not without go, there's no another to be termorrer like there's a case there hasn't been made. John will make it other people have made it. I'm not going about it. If I obviously, though, the response that I saw was a lot of people really mad that hundreds Thousands of families were get a thousand dollars right before Christmas see. I remember this from the two thousand and one Bush tax cuts would you will make, may remember what are the features of them and they were passed at a time when in two thousand We also at a time when the economy actual slipped into recession, and so there was part of the part of the reward of the Bush tax cuts. Was
an advance on your income tax on Europe and on the refund. So that every household was aiming at three hundred dollars. They had never been done before as a bit of a gimmick, but those who, those that were absolutely beside themselves with rage, because it seemed like of this dirty pool you're. Just so you're we're just you're using your powers to send everybody a check. Adele, say: yo. The government but George W Bush sent me a Czech, that's just Fair. These are demand well Iders, for whom the bottom of the wrong injecting capital into the consumer economy is how you move the economy forward. Rapid. That's also, then, people that heads where people start switching their positions so suddenly from being demand. Siders, who believe that it's important to boost the economy with consumer spending are like, while this is, terrible for the savings rate. I mean
this is really awful. You shouldn't be just encouraging people to go out. If you send them a cheque for three hundred always are just gonna go spend it instead of save it This is really what we need in this country is a savings rake as we don't have a savings where people are always foot on all these bills and by the way I dug up something from nineteen sixty four, the Heather were breaking republic on the House Ways and Means Committee wind with sixty three, when John F Kennedy proposed what the first supplies. I tax cuts long before Ray eighteen years before Reagan, the ranking republican member of the household, meet me said this is playing russian roulette with the economy, because at that time Republicans were budget cutters and not tax cutters right. So so people are always flip, flopping and saying whatever they need to say when they can see that the other team has scored an unambiguous. You know pr victory. It's like If they ve scored an unambiguous pr victory, its dirty, they played dirty, they ve done.
Nothing really really dirty now. I do think sir I've got it now as point. I do think if there was some kind of private collusive conversation between the administration and these large corporations, about announcing immediately upon passage of the bill, that they were going to do all this wonderful stuff to balance the bill. It's kind of creepy, that's Burke, into less that's kind of a weird. You know, conversation with secretary of the Treasury and the head of eighteen tee, and then the head of eighteen t makes us announcement to make the bill look good. And that's gonna creepy. Fortunately, since eighteen tee in, I was hoping for a merger with Time Warner and hoping that will go through and the Justice Department. Is you now questioning of and potentially holding up that, sir,
at that. Its creepy doesn't mean that its illegal or evil, and certainly the action, is neither illegal or evil accompanied. Besides it's gonna, it's gonna send a thousand dollar bananas to every one of its employees. I don't think it really doesn't help anybody outside those employees really image. Two hundred thousand people have a thousand dollars. That's pretty great for them. There are a hundred seventy people working in the United States outsmart, like that's two hundred thousand Otto hundreds at that said, caviling added and spitting on it is seems incredibly stupid. Right, I mean just as a populist matter. I am lumpy will work at eighty poor, crazy anti, like our people, in the store as you know, you know like the ones you go and they say coming but when they put your name down on the on the tablet like they're, not they're, not manage them, they're, not well, Fargo, three fifths or whenever that bank. Why Comcast and you
reversal NBC Universe around mean. Everybody thinks that this is you know. Msnbc anger is now its people behind the camera salespeople. Upstairs counting the anyway. Why would why would the? Why would trump be so happy about cutting with a bonus for MSNBC? After all, sir, So I opened open the pressure. I was come raising this move but the most were, and I still think it's good politics. I think it's the kind of thing that from voters will like, but now as we sit here, I actually have to rethink it, and I think this does kind of smack of of a kind of any another. Was the government shouldn't be sitting down with the ceos of five big corporations and hammering out a pr plan? If that's what hath? That's? What happened We don't know, but if that's what happened here, that that it smacks again of of Berlusconi in ITALY or some of these other populace
if it is a little bit, creepy wouldn't want actors in the free shall, I would appreciate, was telling John that that it's not an I'm, ok with it, but now that I think I'm sort of ok with it. I'm just saying that if you know what happens, if there's a pro quo right about. Wouldn't we have to see reciprocity in order to make that, of course, so work. A general, but also if you're, buying goodwill you're buying good will like it doesn't mean that your necessarily having get what you want, but that doesn't mean that you were asked to make the move. I think it's impossible to believe that there was not you know these come These didn't go down, five of them like dominoes and ninety minutes, because they, this wasn't preset email, but no, you will show you had some similar. They both have the same thing by the way they all offered. Color bonuses, they all said that they were going to spend more money in the island states in twenty six and twenty eighty, but no, But you also know, but now, when we were talking earlier, had some similar examples from the Obama years right from some sort of comfort
gathered up well what I've seen from the left, trying to accuse Republicans of hypocrisy or two examples, the first being the the carrier deal Republicans and conservatives who were against the carrier. Deal are largely for this tax cuts in that struck me as absolutely bonkers, because we should go back in recent weeks when I will carry the carrier. Deal was in the interregnum between the Obama administration, the Trump administration that might pence, who was then the governor of Indiana ravine on behalf of a defence contractor which owns the firm carrier, which was liquidate to facilities in Vienna and moving to Mexico intervened on their behalf. Created attacks carve out for those factories which we all set crony capitalism in which the trumpets and said look we're saving a bunch of jobs and ended up financing a rather offsetting the cost of automating these companies and most of them were ship that jobs are shipped off anyway. It's kind of a disaster there's no compromise renewal
Harrison rather between a blanket tax rate reduction for the your whole corporate economy as a whole, even though there are some carve out for republican interest in there and why individual carve out from one company to make one guy happy. The second exam The ball is in the Obama era. When you had the John brought up the the cash for clunkers deal, which had car companies lining up in favour that the old, but all Obama CARE, where you had ensures that were very publicly for this. Bill and we're coming out in favour of it and had representatives behind the president and members of the administration was the very public pr campaigns. Republicans were against because this bill mandated that people purchase your product. Not me Eleven there we'll get unerringly other replay fealty to the democratic administration, and also it now just thinking. Why don't we, the countless waivers at the Obama administration issued two to two to the private sector? After
after this, rather a Cadillac tax and the risk corridors, and all of that, however, we should we should draw a distinction here. The the corporate lobbying on behalf of Obamacare was policy driven right, that is to say, Obama, brought the man they say he said he said to them. What do you want to be on or whoever brought them and said? What do you want to be on the side of this bill? And they said we want this and they said fine, no. You have to go out and help us sell it right. So this kind of weird after the fact stuff, where what? What trumpet? the tram administration. Theoretically, as I say, this is all by inference, because these companies did this all in the same. Ninety minutes says them. Ok, we pass this bill. They you you're, going away Now show some shows immediate rewards and benefits from the bill.
That's not help us sell it that help us derive political benefit from the bill after its passage now, I think that's good politics. I just think that you have that you have to want you don't want The government leaning on private industry, with the potential expectation that private industry is going to get a bit a word or a nicer hearing or a better hearing that said can again- and I think Noah Syrup is right- was right. The first case that, as a matter of practical politics, if six hundred six seven hundred thousand people in corporate Amerika get affair dollar bonus- you know before Christmas, and their companies announced at or they also announced that their raising the minimum wage other minimum pay in their companies to fifteen dollars and that they're going to repatriate money.
Use it in the United States take the hit. You know Trump one, the politics and these companies are doing something that is an unemployed good, that nobody could possibly object to. Take the hit don't be a jerk don't be an idiot about something like this, it makes you looks ball and carping in caviling and why me particularly Burton early on the day in which the other news that was bad news for the trumpet ministration. Even that was the best day for Trump himself. You know, even when There is a pull that comes out on the same day by CNN that has the generic democratically vantage going into the twenty eighteen elections at eighteen points, a number that we have never seen I mean there might have been a number like that in nineteen. Seventy four, when you know after after Watergate, but certainly wasn't in the December one thousand nine hundred and seventy three-
thing, but these numbers that eighteen plus eighteen followed a plus fifteen plus fourteen plus twelve plus thirteen, the average. You know this a real, clear politics average of the generic democratic advantage on who you want to control. The house in the Senate is now insignificant, double digit around thirteen and a half, Those are, as we say, sticky numbers according to our friend Harry Enten, at at at five hundred and thirty eight, you know who is one of these kind of be no mad polling and policy genius. Has that those numbers don't that generic ballot doesn't change very much and it ought really doesn't go in the other direction like it often grows, but if it's out alive then it's not going to go down to four. Even if the economy is absolutely wonderful, so he's pretty good economy is increasingly thirty how good the regulatory their kidding themselves into thinking this. You know people who are going to look at their take pay Jackson in
February and see little less withholding one point: six percent less withholding its a gosh darn. It republicans deserve more terms in office. I'd like that point about the economy and voting is that when the EC, Enemy is good. It's not a direct one on one thing where it's like. Well, I have more money in my pocket. Exactly it's more like your mood, improves your less worry your sense of oh doom and anxiety, lessons because things are going better for you and going better for your friends and going better. There are more job opportunities, because companies are hiring instead of Vienna freezing you're. Getting is, is worried and get raises stuff like that and that, basically, the general mood lightens and the idea that you want to punish politicians for how horrible things are lessons. That's where the idea is that the economy benefits people its morning in America. Again was your waking up you're, not feeling
like the world is about to fall in on your head. That was the slogan for one thousand nine hundred and eighty four. I first of all the economy is not going to get that will discuss that in a minute, but I'm just saying that Democrats could take the hit on the tax bill for a day, not not like shoot themselves in the foot by talking about how terrible it is that people are getting things because attacks but was passed, but here's my I have a point on this, which is that I don't think it's just question of their not being able to take the hit. I also think that this kind of apocalyptic rhetoric also is. It is an indication of where the left and there are those elements of the centre left that respond to the left. Where are on these things. I mean, I think, we're they ve got into point where cutting corporate tax is like is, is it's a it's prescribed in the weighted boots on the ground. Is its be? It's become this crazy? Only oh, my god, you can't do that. That's that's an evil
Taxes is is, it is a sign of patriotism and, and you know, government takes care of you, and I think I think it's an indication of sort of how the how far out there they are and how they talk about. Normality in abnormality lot of the red over the past year has been that X Y see. That Trump does is abnormal and I've been the first or not the first. But I have certainly joined in when the president has done his repellent things. It is abnormal, for example, for the president to pick on the father of some Random college basketball player. Over multiple tweets, that's have normal, but you know, what's also normal, the idea that the president wakes up morning and his first concern is not the economy is economies, not even his third or fourth concern, which is worse,
It has been said and could be said fairly about President Obama. We recently had dinner with an investor who said that you know with Obama. It was obvious that he woke up with a set of ideological concerns. Reducing equality fix fixing the environment, stopping global warming or what have you and the economy was just an afterthought and with Trump we are back to a place reminiscent of of George W Bush, reminiscent of Clinton in his more centrist, moods and then going back where it's a normal thing for the president to think You know how will this affect the economy and how do I do? I boost
hiring investment and productive behaviour. That's that's a normality in you. I added I mean is certainly not in the city in New York. I feel is always dynamic, but especially I feel it now. You see it in the stock market. You know that the left can come back and say, but we do have a duty to pay your taxes, whether I am they hand in it a good idea. They can. They do, and you know there was a very interesting tweet from Representative TED Lou of California, whose The reason this bill is bad. Is that if you know if Lord Middle Class, constituent gets. You know a thousand dollar tax break and a rich purse gets a million dollar tax break the prison, It's a thousand dollar tax rate is going to envy and hate. The personally gets the million dollar tax break. That's human nature, thus indicating the TED Lou believes that his constituents are rack with poisonous envy and hatred of other people
at that is so the democratic view is look at human nature to hate people who who better than you I'm for. So I don't think that's true. I think it's it's true of some people onto of everybody, and often it's true- that people really hate people at their lowest level, who do a little better than they do. But you know it's like my. Grandmother, who was a very working class woman, you know she didn't hates. You know, MRS Rockefeller, she envied her neighbor, who got a new couch before she did. That was the that was heard, dammit. She there was that what she could see. That's part of the problem, I think, with this notion that inequality is is it is helpful to the Democrats, is a political issue. As this question It's way more people like us who went to you now very fancy me. Whatever you went to very fancy schools, and then people that we went to school you know are have had
a billion dollar hedge funds and live in way makes houses than we do and like we did better than than they did in our political order, and change of them were, like God, dammit you know. He went to Wall Street, my leg became which- and this is not fair- you know like that. There's a lot of that in this sort of chattering class, talk about inequality. It's this. You know top percent hatred of the top wait, one percent, if you think you have status and be, I can imagine what it's like for a congressmen look as he has two I believe to be to be. Caricaturing myself, I don't know, maybe this awful for TED lewd after raise money from which we I wouldn't you know- I mean it's not like. I wouldn't want to be asking for campaign contributions. But I thought it was a very striking thing. Similarly, I think it is striking that one
the interesting things that is laid bare- and I will say this simply as a matter of description and not as a matter of you- no attack that what we see. Here is a view of governor. In society and the economy that works as follows. If you believe that route, that every dollar earned by a person is owned. That person is the possession of that person and that government has to take some of it. To run the common necessities that we all share military entitled. Hence roads whatever right. That is what makes you a Republican that the dollar is yours and that some part of it has to be essentially commandeered for the common good. If you believe that that dollar is owned by the collective and what's left
over from the dollar after the collective takes. What it needs is what you get, and that could be, sixty cents or could be forty cents or could be thirty cents or it could. You know whatever the That is what makes you a liberal Democrat. Is that perspective on the what the dot, what a dollar in in in an individual's hands? Actually is and represent, there's an added layer there when I saw articulated by of pro liberal who I won't name because I dont think that deserve to be attacked. Is also that the government and the collective, as you put it, is more efficient at allocating that investment in places that will benefit not just society as a whole, but the person they are confiscating their dollar from where an who doesn't know or understand the extent to which they are being benefited by the surrender
that there has been literally a dozen Nobel prizes awarded to economists who shall I presume that this act, the opposite right right, but it needs a faith based proposition, but it is one that nevertheless broadly shared report This is the Obama philosophy right. Government is just another name for the things that we do together right. That is, that was that is the best gloss on this, and, of course, if the things that we do together, better morally spiritually bristle than the things that we do individually. Then. Obviously, the government has call on on our money, to the extent that it needs it, love all things being equal. It would be great if the government could let you have as much as possible, but it may simply not be allowed to do that with the exception, can this philosophy of the very wealthy who deserve to have their money confiscated to the extent possible, and one of the reasons that you can actually have that view
If you are a liberal Democrat is that you also know that it's not possible that the part of the point here is that the well will always figure out a way to shield to use the system to shield as much of their money as possible from public exposure and that its in the end, if you really need to also there simply aren't enough of them, it's the classic problem of taxation that If you, you know, if you were to seize all the assets of every really wealthy person in the country, oddly enough, the truth as there isn't, there aren't enough of them If you need to raise an enormous amount of money, you need to do it from the middle, because there are a hundred and fifty million people in the middle. If you take ten dollars from each of them, you're gonna do better than if you take a hundred dollars from fifteen hundred people. And this is always the problem or talking my government resources, and why you now why? What
but one of the interesting things, is that this complaint that you have the tax cuts disproportionately benefit the wealth is that, over the last thirty years of remarkable efforts have been made to limit the federal tax burden on people who pay, who earn less money, with the exception of payroll taxes which are units of equal across all. You know all Sectors for what it, what is isn't over forty seven percent of Americans pay. No federal tax effectively accept payroll taxes, they pay no tax. You can't cut the taxes of people who pay no tax. You cannon
act, give the money from the government in the form of a refundable tax credit which, what one of one of which was expanded in this bill right, their child tax credit that marker Rubio insisted on expanding to get his vote, which was expanded from a thousand to that knowledge is a refundable task, credit, meaning you get it. Even if you pay no taxes, you get you'll, get a cheque from the government because the having to the raising of children sincere poke again, interestingly enough, common public good that deserves support so ably the best day ever also another thing so to two quick points there before we move on one, the trumpet major and ass best they ever yesterday, not just because of the tax cuts, but also because of the decision on the part of port. Where's. The this administration to allow Kiev to purchase weapons from the United States is not less aid, but it is lethal arms and it isn't
there is a long time in coming. It is a substantial blow to Putin's ambitions in Europe. It is reversal of a policy on the above administrations, part that was pro Russia objectively and this administration now probably as a better record on Russia than Brok among administration that so take that. For the collusion narrative, that's a big problem. I would all However, the conservatives, while taking the trumpeters nation as a whole and its very good day yesterday, in a very good day for the administration today that, on the part of the whole old picture in the year. You may have less rosy view of it. I did a piece on that up a commentary that I recommend everybody read only because I want to get a lot of views, but I think that's where we're going, that taking the administration and twenty seventeen as a whole. Let me can, I just say something about Ukraine. I say I think that was it's a fabulous move
long overdue. I remember I interviewed Pershing gotta ukrainian Prime Minister twenty fifteen and he made the point he said. Look. We don't want American of european troops to coming to an end and die for us defending Ukraine. I you know We will fight this war. Selves just give us twelve hundred. Ninety eight, I think that was a number javelin missiles? Why did he picked this very specific number, because that was the number of of warheads that Ukraine gave us as part of that? What was called the Budapest memorandum in nineteen eighty four, which was signed by the? U S, UK and russia- that those three powers would guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal. New Ukraine could have been
nuclear, armed power that that could have resisted Syria, whom whom Russia would have dared challenge. Had they not done this voluntary give up giving up their of their nuclear strategic arsenal. They did and and it was a matter of just basic fairness that once their borders have been so blatantly violated by Russia once they had little a chunk of their sovereign territory annexed by Moscow that did the? U S arm them and the Obama administration, backed by the european powers. Refuse and its remarkable, that is the Trump administration that now is willing to do this, and it's a. I really ask people who think that this administration is some sort of puppet of the of the Putin regime to accept I mean how on policy issue after policy issue, it does things that there are far more likely to displease the Kremlin.
Guided not by us that the Treasury Department yesterday also sanctioned a Chechen straw man, by the name of kitty or of whose there very I'm a very flamboyance character, a big Putin ally under the magnetic act, which you will recall. We were all talking about, because that was the focus of Natalia of us on this guy has interview with Paul manner for Kirshner, and I forget who the other person was in that meeting whoever hit with their intention, what on stronger Junior Don Junior their intention was to get the administration to the emphasis, If not push for the repeal of the Magnet Ski act, we should explain what the magnets the ACT as Asia is. An the law named after a gentleman who is anti corruption invested. You're in Russia who was taken into custody and tortured and killed in custody and that law, which is being enacted all over the world, now is an effort to sanction members of the russian government deserve to be
action- and this was one of them, so the collusion narrative now is really on it. On the rope wallets. With this way of prudent. If we do find out, there was a conspiracy to elect Donald Trump, president Putin will have every reason to expose it pretty soon, because tromp is not doing put trumpet. Delivering on the would not be delivering on the promise of a better of administration, Let us friendlier and better to him now, Putin had personal reasons and we personal reasons to hate Hillary Clinton according to MIKE what fall the former ambassador to Russia, who said the Putin had a unique distaste for Hilary that he himself had some difficulty. Understanding. Cept, maybe massage me, but you know, look this is. If this is the result of collusion conspiracy, then you know put made a bad debt.
Well, it appears. I just want to add that when people talk about the collusion, this was collusion between trumpet Russia trumps the x rotation. The trumpet go easy, specifically Putin in the Ukraine was often like exhibit a right that was otherwise. There was reason that that's what s interesting about this right, we as you know, as is as close as three weeks ago that there are three, world leaders of whom, according to people in the oval office, that he speaks admiringly of one is area? One of Turkey, a camera The second is the g. I guess we d of G of China and Putin the three people that he says that what they're doing they run their country's well, the above all right so you know, He did say he wanted to have a better relations with Russia. He did say, like prudently did say that we do bad things away. Putin does bad things, but you know
as my father said to me in the course of a heated argument over lockers earlier this week. You know if you like. Listen to what terms forget, don't listen to what from says. Listen Dublin see what he does and in this case I dont think that that's right, because I do think that a lot of what he says is noxious enough to make you judge him harshly, but that, if you in the case of Russia, He has reaffirmed our commitment to NATO, even though we grudgingly you know he complains about how we're not getting enough money back from the current, but he reaffirmed our commitment to NATO. Earlier this year he has imposed sanctions on the magnets he act or the restoration, regional ministers personally said I am not going to commit to article five,
I don't get out get from now. Ok is Donald. Trump had run Ministration administration, nationally Republic, very convention, and let's talk about the other conventional republican thing that happened this week. That has, I think legs. I think interesting potential legs, Nicky Hayley on Monday right now in vetoing the Security Council resolution. Do you know attacking America for a Reno for recognizing Jerusalem as it's you know, as its calf so two things happened. So she did that you made a great speech, and then yesterday, before the coming. I guess today of the General Assembly meeting where the General Assembly will vote some resolution on how America shouldn't be allowed to pick to recognise what. America, sovereign country, the pace, twenty five, so the bills for that stupid organization, TAT will do a ridiculous. General Assembly resolution of idiocy, but
She said we're going to watch and see who votes for this and we're going to Dad's going to go into the ghetto into our calculations as to who we like, and we don't like in the world now trump trailers, rhetoric and occasionally very creative, as in the case of the recognition of Jerusalem in his policy? What if Trump decides to pull the? U S? Out of the? U n. I mean you now we talk right trumps, laying the groundwork for this there, laying the groundwork for Mahler their laying the groundwork for that is. Nikki hail laying the groundwork for an American Ok, so I'm shaking his head. But I'm saying I, but you know, he's that daring, maybe you'll, be talks a good game, but he doesn't do a public policy, but I'm just saying say it's the middle of twenty nineteen and he's down twenty it's in the polls and he needs to pull a hail. Mary he enjoys going before the General Assembly and addressing other were committed.
Too much, so you wouldn't do that, but we ve taught before had there are certain bitterly he does conventional things than there are certain things that he does it then I think no one else would do wayward would would dare do their smaller arrive at their small. This would be a good solution. A colossal. You don't remember the old slogan right, the? U S, that of the USA and the EU and out of the U S like get them outward rebel redevelop will read it. Of that thirty acres internal, a yell ere the building down, put up the mice condom. Maybe a nice park right there on the river. You know be great and eliminate. It would help every traffic in my neighborhood and we would just wash our hands of this corrupt. You know most evil organization that continues to have human Rights Council's that are full of human rights abusers and I believe, forty to fifty percent of the action taken both committees and in the General Assembly, involves the behaviour of one country in one country. Only that is moral superior to ninety
percent of the country's were voting to wag their fingers. Israel. So I don't know, I'm the I'm floating this. Did I say you know it could happen. I maybe it's a five percent chance would never have happened that everybody else but could happen, as the kind of you know like just going totally all out with a crazy wild policy to reset the table. She's, been nothing but defines and she's been she's not drop by drop. The rapid either way that's gonna with his by the way, what happens erects when haven't extortions quitting what happened to that quitting are being fired that that was a month ago, we're gonna go dark next week that ok, everything's gonna, be you're gonna be fired. Rex is gonna resign. He said everything that haggling, Nicholas Research, areas guy said Jane. I went as far as we are here in our
the year show or final show the year we thought we would go the list with some. Evaluations of twenty seventeen and predictions for twenty eighteen. So we're gonna go around the table so Abe. The worst thing that happened in twenty seventeen. What would you say? It was a pick, the collapse of discourse. General collapse on both sides of political discourse. A lot of it has to do with the stuff. Talking about in the first half the show, be constant apocalypse. Dick criticism every days doomsday for both sides. Every attack, his personal there, is no sense of all. This is what Republicans do this. His word Democrats stand Yesterday we saw a celebrity on social media seemingly offering a two million dollars, apiece tis to senators who would who would? Who would? Who would kill this? This? This?
The fact is, mass atrocity of attacks will vote. Is bad, and that is that is something that, from his men very instrumental in exacerbating Noah, so I picked Charlottesville and its aftermath and this was indicative of something that was the culmination of something- was a long time coming down from has, in my opinion, been a disaster for the Republican Party on something that I think is very important, which are issues related to race. They began a rope, Republicans entered twenty. Sixteen with a younger and more diverse congressional leadership, then Democrats and had a pretty young and diverse field of republican presidential contenders, Donald Trump has been antediluvian on race. He spent twenty. Sixteen pardoning Joel are Pio. Some twenty here are the burning JOR Pio and getting into fights with NFL football players and various other cultural figure. With a lot of racially charge rhetoric in this cause?
and ended in this episode and Charlottesville, in which newly emboldened white nationalists clashed with the equally newly emboldened bolsheviks, which was a lot also a long time coming, not something it started in twenty seventeen. But it's also, you know something that Donald Trump does bear some responsibility for, and after the death of a young woman as a result of an act of white nationalist terrorism Trump spend a week Arguing in public with himself over how forcefully to condemn white nationalism, that's an unseen arguable. Setback for american rates, religious sorra worse thing, so I was gonna pick something similar to even and no o, which is why more America, this sense, said we're not an economic crisis like with a why my republic, but we can't seem to be able to talk to each other clasp across political divides, but I won't do that. Because that would be too is called an audible
it's too to duplicate of of the other two. So I will say it was that this was the revelation, although its nodded a revelation to those of us has been following this, but I find it a horrific that its it's come to light, also important. That has come to light the fact that Norway countries are increasingly boasting of ninety nine hundred percent termination rates for four fetuses diagnosed with down syndrome. He I think it's it's a form of new eugenics. It's not it's not coercive the way it was under the tea for programme of the Nazis, but nevertheless the campaign to eliminate down syndrome, and essentially, a category of human beings will bring a lotta light. Love into the human family is despicable and horrible. Ok, that's like that's really
It's really bad! That's like worse that word. What were we ve journey from our political? Worse to sort of you, no moral crimes that one would imagine a hundred years from now. You know we will be condemned in our people, will wonder and horror at the fact that we lived through this without without without objective. I'm going to return to the patio, and they also call an audible and say that I think the worst thing that happened in twenty seventeen was Steve Bannon, by which I mean the elevation of a of a noxious troll to a very senior position in the White House, the role that he played in the White House in urging the worst, the worst in Donald Trump, the travel there. The horrific rollout Ike M dub and conceptualisation of the travel ban, which exacerbated horrible social differences at the very from the very first. We
of the administration rather than tamping them down, was incompetent and wrong headed and it took nine months for them to drafted in such a way that totally unnecessary thing by the way. But this totally Msf piece of Legislation- or whatever the still leave us or executive order, but it took nine months to them to get it right. Bannon was a unique force for the yes or disruption and decay and the worst insight of Trump. Finally, was let go and then, of course, the Republican Party descended into the two months, Roy more largely with the idea that Steve, Evans championing of more, was a sign that war was the future of the party. There is one good aspect of this, which is that balance, failures and twenty seventeen should be assigned to Republicans.
Power and to Trump and others that this is a path that the parties should not go down, that it is not popular, that it is a form of losing and that it is not only evil, but it is self destruct. And useless. So I that's what I'm gonna go at this stage. Banner was the worsening. Ok, the best thing It happened in twenty seventeen syrup. I already talked about it, but I think Nicky Hayley her performance at the, U N, She wasn't the agent of pulling us out of UNESCO, the vile anti semitic, Anti Israel, social and cultural body of the? U N! That came out of the state Department, but she has made some really strong statements around Jerusalem most recently with this and a forthright Anne and long overdue threat to countries whom we hoo hoo, hoo, hoo Security,
and economic wellbeing depend in large part, an american generosity within turn around and vote against thing. I'm gonna give you a little little. Something is happening right now to reinforce your argument. A gale is giving her speeches as we were more life speech, and I will quote from from from her speech cook the. U S will remember this day in which it was singled out for attack in the General Assembly for the very act of exercising our right as a sovereign nation. We will remember it when so many countries come calling on us as they so often due to pay, even more so I love that I I compared it on twitter to the compared hair, her performance to Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and before that gene kirkpatricks of standing up to the last minute. But yes,. Standing up: that's right, as I ever see article standing up to the bullies and the jackals bravo and
one last point, which is that when I did offer that praise some one of my twitter treat followers responded. That should be the first female you as president, and I think it's plausible, and I would welcome that. No a best thing, I had a split decision. My first was Nicky Hayley for ever reason that Sir Robert Regulated, so I don't have to do that. The second one is the very first piece of form of legislation in twenty seventeen, which is yesterday's tax code bill. It is the first effort, albeit we can argue this, go for the scale of it. It is the first efforts to reform the tax code since I've been a sentient human, being long overdue, it is going to result in significant dynamism. It's going to be good for people, whether they know it or not, and I think that this is very valuable. I wish there was more republican legislation to tap, but at least we have something ok ape. For the best thing I chose the end of the daily,
Anti Israel messaging in the media that was part and parcel of eight years of the Obama administration. This messaging that came down from on high. You know when Obama, deputy national Purity visor, been roads had revealed that they had that bead ministration would but send at their ran deal messaging throughout that through this media echo chamber, that would help them promote the deal on that's true, but I think that echo chamber, was perpetual working round the clock to every day retail, to every news outlets stories about how Benjamin Netanyahu is destroying israeli democracy, how he was ever crueler to Palestinians and so on. Some its it's almost on some level. It's a sort of lifestyle change for me not to have to wake up and see those stories constantly today and on another sets its actually unimportant. Larger story about about were about sort of truth, teller
and when, where we stand in the world and getting rid of all that really noxious, that dead noxious pr campaigns run ok, well, so my best thing, I'm gonna split it. I'm gonna go very personal and say we have the birth of Maximilian. Mri. Sort of Sun and Shiloh Abrams, my my great niece twenty seventeen. Thus a year that will live in recorded will wonder from those from the two and the other. I say I don't know if it's the best. I think it's the most important. We don't know if it's really bad or good, but it is the most important development of twenty seventeen, and that is the rise of Mohammed Bin, Salman in Saudi at the crown, Saudi Arabia, who is some kind of odd, is, is, is affecting change and potentially affecting a kind of change in the in the arab world.
The likes of which we never imagined and which will far from it turns out the disappointing arab spring, having failed to bear fruit, the way that we thought that it would bear fruit, it may well be that this or of autocratic liberalisers represents the best hope for change in the most contentious and dangerous place. You know of Ludlow How in the world he may not succeed. This may all exploded his face and twenty eighteen. If it does not, he will be the most important muslim leader since Kemal Ataturk, who came along in the nineteen twenties and revolutionized Turkey and the revolution that lasted about eighty five years until it till it till it came a cropper self. We get eighty five years out of Mohammed and Solomon Owl be pretty great: ok, thee
the thing that didn't happen and twenty seventeen that you fought was going to happen in twenty seventeen ape, I put down these server financial collapse market crash over a Trump presidency that will that was the that was a huge chunk of the thinking when he was election night them. What the markets got shaky, the idea being that markets like certainty, Donald Trump. Certainly in is, as is camp in conduct, damn trade was anything but a certain order or seemingly stable I'm very. Obviously none of that happened, though the market is soaring, as we have already touched upon. The economy is doing very well. That's that's! That's a huge, that's something! I am thankful for
Nor were actually guess I misunderstood the question I asked if I were to say things that I thought would happen that didn't happen. Then I would see the the rebalancing of american free trade relations with the world towards a more protectionist the posture which has not happened. Thankfully, I thought you meant what other people thought was going to happen, and if you look back just about every day, we have had scares of a constitutional crisis, Donald Trump attacking judges. On in his own departments and now the Mueller oh, but an remove, Sally AIDS from minute one. We were on the verge of having a constitutional crisis, and this is actually kind of helpful because you had a lot of people now engaged in the street drive. Our government and learning about our government newsy, like foreign sources, were saying. This is how the american government works, and these are separation of powers and at source. Stop was kind of important, but this constitutional court, is that everybody anticipated was forthcoming, never
materialised. Thank God, my of Hake, for something that I thought was going to happen again. We ve touched touched on this, but I am, I really thought that they did. We would have an appropriate and turn in american foreign policy, and I wrote about it after the election during the election and in the first couple of months of the of the term presidency. Looking at certain statements where no demonstration suggests that it might be willing to kind of divide parts of Eastern Europe, and I could see them too. The M to the Kremlin sphere. I was worried about what would happen to Ukraine sanctions because noises about removing What would happen to Montenegro's NATO membership bid and none of it panned out, so we had the? U S
putting the trumpet and administration ratifying Montenegro's bid to join NATO. Ukraine, Ukraine, sanctions are in place and then, as we just spoke about in the first half of the segment at a U S, will arm the country with them lethal defensive weapons, the. U S, also bombed Assad. Ok, who is a small bombing chemical facility or coming out of a an airship ever used for chemical attacks Nevertheless, as one more time than Barack Obama did U S is using the bag. Nixy act aggressively, whereas under the Obama administration again a fact that people forget I have to, I always remind people Congress pass the magnetic Yak, the Obama administration around twenty thirteen fourteen
beyond was always reluctant to add russian officials to the magnets Ghek Congress had to pull its arm to get it to use the act properly. He would delay it would only list of feet fewer than than than it could have, and so on and so forth. So a policy wise. We have not seen a pro Moscow turn at all. In fact, the opposite, you do Darcy has argued it's ok, so mine is the serve it feeds on yours, which is the unexpected foreign policy crisis. Like every year since, from from twenty eleven through twenty sixteen, there was a foreign policy crisis came out of nowhere that no one expected you have there was the there was Libya. There was the arab spring. There was the rise of ISIS. There was. The invasion of Crimea. There were also.
And I assume that twenty seventeen like every year are proceeding at what there was gonna be some major thing happen that we were gonna be legally and ill equipped to handle or respond to, particularly given the image you see, the incompetence of our Secretary of state and the lack of interest of Vienna Donald Trump, I guess you could say that Kim's testing of us with his icy be ends and his his nuclear. Warheads, functions that way, but I don't just don't feel like it will reach the level of prices of the fact that that didn't happen, and I do think that one of the other best thing that we didn't mention that we should men.
Obviously, the defeat of ISIS you now in Roddy, these sort of the extirpation or the removal of ISIS from its geographical from its caliphate. Now ices is not as people people should not think that ices has been destroyed. Ices is still very active, will be looking for it, but even now- exports, the never trumpery par excellence and our good friend wrote a piece of commentary saying that Trump achieved the first victory over ISIS, though following a policy that he inherited from Obama and that that's worth that's also worth celebrating. Ok, the big story of twenty eighteen predicting the big storm to eighteen Abe. They got, I think it's going to be about a thriving. U S, economy, I think by twenty eighteen, These are incontrovertible that all the gains that we ve seen already that the right is already have
you talk about and the left dozen doesn't want to hear about. I think everyone be talking about. We have consumer confidence is up. The stock market is, is is hitting new highs. Employment is great a blue collar wages are up, I think Whatever one says about the tax bill, I think this is gonna give yet an added boost to the to the economy. If we had to four percent growth I think it's gonna be a very interesting time. People are going to just, but I think the question about the effect of the taxable than will be well wooden, would we have seen this growth anyway or or did the ordered the taxpayer help it?
I would have gone with aims if I thought anyone would care about the state of the economy. I thing I thought everyone cares by putting the economy stupid, I think Donald Trump looms over all things and that's why I believe that twenty eighteen will be the year of the Mueller probe, the Miller probe. Rather, I think that we are watching this thing move very quickly. It is beginning to roll up sources within the administration that not just the campaign, and it will become come to a head at a point where it looks like the president will be, or people very close to him, like his family, will be implicated in some sort of wrong doing that will compel Donald Trump to make a decision and will start the impeachment ball rolling ahead of the twenty eighteen o mine speaks to that. If true, which is, I think, the big story to an eighteen will be that soon, army against Republicans in the house in November
everyone says about the potential health. The economy is true and should mitigate should, in theory, help Republicans. Having said that, I don't really think that the numbers that we are seeing and the incredible enthusiasm of Democrats to go out and hit Republicans where they live, such that ninety three percent now got granted. This is of weird example, but in Alabama on December twelve, ninety three percent of the people who voted we're Hillary Clinton on November. Eight twenty sixteen voted in that special election. Think about what that means for a minute and off air special election in December on a weird day got almost everybody every Democrat in Alabama out to boat, mid term. Have famously low turn out. This is a harbinger of incredibly high. Turnout, potentially and Democrats have recruited
candidates in an enormous number of congressional seats, where often Republicans would run unopposed. So if there is a wave. A wave being a national move. All one direction that has a you know- has an overarching theme and thesis and the two way for the Toonami hits. That means that people can get flooded out and lose office that you would never expect Tom Foley, the speaker of the house, lost his seat in nineteen. Ninety four to George Nethercutt. He was the sitting speaker of the house and it never happened before. That's what happened? That's what can happen in a wave? A wave is coming and a wave that goes big for Democrat means impeachment and twenty nineteen. Probably so, that's me since I was there. I think the other way to look at no story is Malchus firing, mothers, firing or a wave of pardons something like that
all of which, as we know the table, I just cannot separate with the political dynamics, would be with Republicans in control of Congress. Or can I were to happen either combined Some mine, as far as a big story of twenty eighteen, is twofold and brings in AIDS contribution and Johnson and now, as I think, that the mother probe as to the question of course, unquote quote collusion will fizzle. I cannot see what what is the actual wrong doing. That would lead to indictments involving quorum collusion, which is not even a is, does not statute against collusion. There may be other things is as as notices once you have a special investigative going fishing and you have a guy who refuses to release, is tax returns and had as run a kind of sketchy, business or series of businesses than you could find other wrong doing it won't be collusion, citing the real big sorry, I have to agree with a I think. We're gonna see an american economic Renaissance, another. You know, if not
seven fat years than three or four good fat years of four percent growth: tight labour market, I got it. I just can't I've gotta, I gotta intrude here, because the taxpayers- fine, it is not a revolution number one. In my view, number two. We have actually had slow but steady economic growth for six years and general story of that is recession, not explosion. We are growing at three percent now there are potentially unanticipated consequences from and over heating of the economy, labour shortage, massive inflation stuff like that? That can happen when things go too fast or cook too fast? It looks like that, something that you would want wow. That would be so fantastic, so great, but- and it certainly is great in terms of upward pressure on wages, but it's
you know, but it has other potentially deleterious consequences. I, wouldn't I wouldn't go like you know, singing happy days are here again. There is a lot to tell against happy days or here again, so and and by the way. This is the interesting trick. So if, if there is massive economic boom, that'll Willie test this somali proposition, or there will be a real world test of do you'll world protoplasm positive consequences? Will they make a marrow? feel better such that independence, who now hate Trump or like our anti trump by twenty five. To thirty points, are they going to feel better about him or or is there a view of him so calcified into negativity that it will be very, very hard for that cows, suffocation to be shattered, and for it you know, and for them to reverse so we'll move on. So this is the final thing. The member I said there was no unexpected foreign policy crisis. This year
lot of unexpected things like that. We expect that there will be a fight between the president and column Capron EC, no so unex, so unexpected crisis of twenty eighteen potential. Unexpected crisis between eighteen, just to end on a note of bloom and horror sore up your unexpected crisis, possibly a saudi iranian direct nation State war as opposed to the kind of proxy fight they ve been having across the Middle EAST. Or possibly another surprise. Russian land grab somewhere out an old Abbe Moldova would that be maybe didn t the Baltic states, which would then implicate NATO's article five commitments to those states who knows, but I eating, I think that things have been too com too many front while not to calm, but we haven't had a real kind of nations they conflict for a while, and I bid history is, is any guide. We will ape
I didn't I didn't choose a foreign policy crisis. I said that in twenty eighteen there will be a brand new White House sky having nothing to do with it with with anything with with Russia. With anything we seen up till now, it will be lurid it. It could be torrent, tawdry and I think it will come. It will rise in part because so much investigative energy has uptown open, been spent on Russia and dying we would so rob. I think I think, the writing the rush things in official and that all these rescue journalists and whoever else we're gonna have to start digging around other things, and you know given, given what we know of Trump. I think there is a good chance that something about a metal be pretty consuming Miller. Someone a bit of a longshot because they are busily slaughtering dissidents, but mine is the collapse of the government and Venezuela. Things are prey.
Darn bad down there, its brutal it's ugly, they citizen, raised very unhappy one good push and the whole thing could implode and in the event that that happens, it is a hemispheric crisis that will necessitate american intervention with the the insertion of boots on the ground in order to keep a refugee crisis from occurring in a state that is flush with weapons and a lot of petrol. Oh, let's go What I mean it's bad ones really need states good, it's really really bad. So my just for the hell of it. I don't even know what it is and I'm just gonna say it is the collapse of the Bitcoin market. Noah points out to be the day that the Bitcoin market kind of tank today I don't even know what Bitcoin is. I dont understand how work and yet you ve already been proven right at the outset, but I'm just saying so: they re now, apparently, the North Koreans are manipulated the Bitcoin market. There's the bay, the Winkle losses are billion, there's because of the book. No no good can come of. This is what I'm saying in windows. Losses become billionaires in the North Koreans are involved
I am reliably informed that a novel that I read, Neil Stevenson's RIM de Arria M D, published in TWAIN, thirteen predictive trailer predicted the existence of the Bitcoin market, and gigantic worldwide conspiracy to control and contain it. I read that Look, I really enjoyed it. I dont remember thing about it. I dont understand Bitcoin and I just think that a market that is made up is a crypto currency that eggs solely in computers that has no independent backup of value of any kind. I can't really last very long, and maybe so few people are in it, that it will have no negative consequences, ran buddy, but the idiots who have invested in it for all. I know, it'll take the entire global. I didn't know that the entire global system was gonna melt down because of mortgages. Did I let's face it? Although Gretchen more intimate
Our times that so I will say that I didn't know, and I'm saying Bitcoin because I don't know it: Bitcoin is but scared, that its very scary, that there is this whole economic market that you don't know, can't understand. Also what is blockchain. Can anybody tell me what blocks suddenly blocks Is like this, like the letter e in the I these, where everything to be hip was we had the letter in front of it and now what happens on twitter when people like you, look at that that's brilliant, so basically we would, if you, if you finished your Veronica go mazel Tov, thank God That's over eight days of eight days of people not enjoying every every night. Being upset but their presence, is always fun, I hope
Similar amounts of disappointment do not greet you on Christmas morning, if, if that is what you, if that is what you celebrate and then you have a wonderful, let end of year, full of joy and family and of and fun and get off social media and pay attention to nothing? the Hallmark Channel Christmas movies and reflect the fact that, whatever anger, distrust and hatred of the other side wherever the other side is has possess. Do this year that we still live free. The greatest and most wonderful country in the world has ever seen so for a green Waldner. Rossman Soroban Marie I'm John put words, keep the candle burning.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-12.