The stunning result in the Alabama special election offers the crew at the COMMENTARY podcast (me, Noah Rothman, Abe Greenwald, and Sohrab Ahmari) a chance to reflect on how we got here, what this says about Donald Trump and Steve Bannon, and whether hatches can be sufficiently battened down to withstand the tidal wave coming for the Republican Party in 2018. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to day early commentary magazine podcast these Wednesday December through Twenty seventeen- we usually do this on Thursday, but we had some news last night and we are who gets what I'm John Paul towards the editor of commentary with me is always a bring while their senior editor. I John Nor Rossman or associate editor, I John Sort of a Mariar, Senor writer Hygiene, guys. I think I said the other day that, if Roy more sense, candidate in
Alabama one. It would be a dark day for the republic. Roy WAR is lost, therefore, say not dark day for the Republic This is to say nothing about the quality virtues or lack thereof of the victor in Alabama Doug Jones, because Doug Jones doesn't matter here. The election wasn't about Dr Jones. It was about Roy more whose about Donald Trump. It was about the they show the Republican Party in the Democratic Party and there is a lot to glean from the results. Last night, I wouldn't call it a commanding victory for Jones, but it was not a square was not a razor thin squeaker. He won by on behalf of all reaching fifty percent enormous, right and vote relatively speaking, two and a half per cent, and right and vote had none people shown up to write em in Jones. Over fifty percent and would be. You know actually better shapes a whole. The idea that
The sitting Senator Richard shall be the Republican who said he was gonna write. Somebody else and and other people should do that as well seem to have had potentially have some effect on the on the vote between Sunday in and Tuesday. We can presume that if someone wasn't gonna vote for more, he probably would have stayed home. A pretty big event and there are questions that are raised by it, but I think the most salient factoid I want you guys to react to is this. Jones got ninety three percent of the vote that Hillary Clinton was heaved and twenty sixteen ninety three percent of every So he only the number of Democrats who turned out was only a few percentage points. Alas, the overall electorate in TWAIN sixteen presidential year, when you know sixty, So the voter turnout Roy
I got forty nine percent of Donald Trump Salute so now. What does that factoid tell you? It tells me that the race and Alabama was just like every other race that we ve seen in twenty. Seventeen, which feature is every democratic get basically, whose eligible to vote turning out to vote and republican staying home. That's how you got lost legislative raises in places like Oklahoma and Michigan flipping? see Kansas King Kansas, slipping seeds. Mayoralty is all across the country. Olive initiatives and main group approving medicate expansion, of course, the governor ships in Virginia and New Jersey, including virtually flipping Amber and in Virginia and were soon seats in the region, the Virginia Chamber and now Alabama. It's it's one, clear story, which is that Democrats are engaged and Republicans are not and Republicans
you can tell themselves any number of reasons why that is really inaugurates choose your unadventrous story there, but the reality is that it's it's a wave and is away that's coming, and you can see it my mile away, where we know which forces of remorse gonna blame, which is the the amendments after the tenth goes swear that we had people of color got, got the franchise so yeah. Also, I think they'll knows point which I think is is is important to address, is that there is a continuum here in the vote: and more dramatically continuum, because Alabama is as read a state as you can get a Democrat just one there. A set of election for the first time in a quarter century. This following a long in with salt and other states where there was not a.
Scandal involving the possible molestation of a fourteen year old girl by thirty year old man, Republicans, will say about you and have said well this a uniquely flood candidate and then in prior racism. Oh well, you know there's not enough achievements in and Republicans in Congress, Sir, are not united on on anything and have no achievements and there's any number of excuses you can make for what is probably what I believe is the underlying factor, and that is of a singularly motivating figure in the form of the president, whose animated Democrat in a way that they have been animated, niggers and is de emanating Republicans, and that is part of the point that has to be made here, because if Republic their staying home. They say home in Alabama because they, I grew more fine, but they didn't say home in Virginia because they didn't like it Gillespie and they stay home in the Oklahoma, her race
By a you know, out lesbian because they do you know whatever there was a right, so enormously continuum is republican lack of enthusiasm and engagement. Remember we made fun early in February or something of the fact that in the special election in Georgia, which serve kicked off this frenzy between the Democrat Janos off and the Republican Karen Handle, that everybody said all the Democrats have won a moral victory cuz. They came so close in a in a in a race that we know when, in a district that was won by the last guy by twenty two points, but the who says that the democratic that race John also have wheel I abilities he wasn't from the stadium districts stuff like that, and he still came within four
in a place where he had no business coming in within ten and how No one, not because she was, you know a trump in candidate, no appealing to the extreme. So sentiment, but because she was a complete. The conventional Republican who had run statewide. Two or three times and was basically a kind of ordinary, suburban conservative, no real, quick, unwanted, introduce some data here to support my contention, which is otherwise might just sound like never tramper blather ring about how Trump. As you know, the problem here, the shift in special elections in California is thirty. Fourth, district, Kansas, Fourth Montana at large, Georgia's six South Carolina Fifth, an hour: an alibi Senate race now our respectively plus eighteen for Democrats, twenty three fifteen six, sixteen thirty one and sixteen all in the democratic direction with one.
Glaring exception. There was a special election in Utah's six district, where there was virtually no shift towards Democrats. As, as a matter of fact, there was a shift towards Republicans by three points. What is different about the Utah Republican Party? That is not a feature shared by the rest of the Republican Party in the trumpets, anti trompe bingo right, where you toys the Utah's, the state, the ten crews, one by forty points, something in the primary. Oh yeah he's like forty times like thing was he won by forty point so at everything everywhere election in the trunk, there has been a contest to be more anti trump than the narrow sky right, as opposed everywhere else in the country right. Now. Remember those are just so it in is it really. Every one of these cases. Are you have this? This all all the suggests is democratic and enthusiasts
and some republican retrenchment. So what we have here is a lesson I will throw this out to you aim, which is Barack Obama, was a profound Lee gifted politician in one remarkable direction, which is he knew how to get himself elected. He was awful And not only in himself, but as an example and as a leader he was awful at getting anybody else. Elective M Democrats over eight years lost a thousand seats in the house, the Senate and in local and say races, Donald Trump, self elected at a lower one of the greatest political? If not the greatest political stunt in american history, may maybe he's worse than Obama. Getting anybody else. Elected he's, definitely worth
Obama at least also commanded popular votes, as well as the as as one of you at your college, which meant that there was this sort of larger, larger sort of base of goodwill out there on on veto on on his side, no matter what trumped doesn't have that he doesn't have that's room, that that margin for risk and and the other thing is it trump. This is a problem for Trump, because he, wields. This imagined leverage over Republicans, who don't do his bidding what why would they fear him now what what? What? What? What? What are you gonna do what she, what what can heath.
He threatened to derail them now. If I may piggy back off that, you know who else is lost his ability to inspire fear and disappoint you ve made John in the past is is Steve Ban, and this is the third or fourth, I think race, where he's thrown his his weight behind these extreme morally repulsive kind of the basis of the base, type characters and and loss he so Bannon is, is de fanged he's law said that aura he's he's neutralize and and what does he get for trying to wage war on which Mcconnell in the end and mainstream Republicans, failure I want to counter it. I went to counter this cause. I don't, I think you guys are overestimating the extent to which the the base of this party remains trompe and remains banning night, and why politicians will not see that these these are perfectly like. Where you go into that.
We should have a little conversation on the definition of the term base, by which I do. I am not referring to it the adjective base, but rather than on base in terms of policy I combine. Yes, I raise a rapid, the clever, so what does it mean when we talk about a parties based? we mean its whore electorate. The people that you can reliably depend upon to turn out in elections for dog catcher to vote for the person who is the dog catch or in primary issue can rely. But we expect them to turn out there in gay hyper engaged their issue, often very issued issue, driven though they may not look at, and they make up twenty five percent, generally speaking of parties overall electorate, so
When we talk about the republican base, we are not talking about everybody, we're not even talking about every republican voter in a general election. We're talking about the voters who turn out in primaries to direct who ends up carrying the ban. Right, so I'm starting their because there's often incredible confusion about what the term means or what the grass it's alright. It's always somebody says I'm the grass roots. Well, you may or may not be the grassroots. If you didn't vote in School board election? I don't necessarily consider you part of the republic, not raising two two hundred said: that's that's too hard core, I'm too, but I mean there's a generous and residential mid. Presidential primary Mary odors right. Remember often there's no reason to vote no primary because there may not be contested, but it's the people who out of Town Hall meetings and you know organise- do work com,
All donate might give you do longtime work, that is the base, so Republicans district, dependent, obviously and state dependent, are not going doesn't, have an epiphany today and say: ah ha, I can define Donald Trump identifies the abandoned and survive your How can a win reelection? If you don't win your primary and every politician is going to say, will I contacted the centre after when my primary the primary as the obstacle, though, is gonna, be the obstacle? So I don't think anybody is gonna. Have this you'll come to Jesus moment and say: okay? Well, if I can't when the general, if I have to view as Mitt Romney famously said, I forget who was maybe was Eric ever Unstrung lose the primary to win general, I think that with an air Eric now, but Eric for instruments who was one of Romany, that would only address said, that's right. Well, the primaries, moreover, so that's just Gavroche Jabber said I I don't want to. I wanted, I wouldn't lose the primary to win the general right, something which, of course,
no sense because you can't win the general. Where are you lose the primary right, but they get? The sentiment is there that the primary voters are an obstacle to winning the general, but in both parties in both parties, because that look, I think everybody agrees that Doug Doug Jones might have looked like. He was going to skate into the president into the Senate seat in November a month before. If he hadn't been totally dogmatically pro abortion up through partial birth yet like if he had been, you know conventionally. If he had been like senator Kristen Jello brand of New York, who, in two thousand and six one her upstate, how seat by being a pro gun pro life candidate.
But now she will not be silence. She will not allow ourselves to be silenced, as the spokesman for abortion rights and hating guns, like that mentioning, like you run candidates who fit the demographic and the illogical profiles in order to win. That was something wrong with annual who was running the democratic effort to win the house in two thousand: six daddy, recruiting candidates who work Conservatives for conservative districts, so that they could have a winning chance if Doug Jones had been a pro life Democrat. He would have one that sea going away likely. So. I'm. I can't remember what I was bring by that. Why brought this I just thought it was important, because Democrats have the a problem they often want they the base. Once
politicians to win, who were to extreme for the general, but Republicans are the ones who have largely been responsible for this right. I think somebody tell it up that there are six Senate seats. That Republican should have that they do not have more being the last, because extremist Republicans in primaries Donald one we're staying O Donnell Richard Murdoch Toddy Bacon Sharon Angle and the care member who is the fifth, but camera with urban and energy and the such as that their extreme during the primaries, it's you made the whole idea of Trump ISM, or what Stephen imagines Trump ISM to be. Is that unconventional in that their we'll be no talking to the centre and the general. This is you you, you you stay anti establishment all the way through come hell or high water. Allow Donald Trump wasn't sui generis. He was a model right, so it's it's especially damaging and self Democrats are gonna take away their unless from this is well notably among them. I think, is that abortion,
The litmus test and abortion- not going to be something you can be district, distinct, dependent on. You have no choice now, but to display fealty to the cultural consensus on the coasts, and if you do not, you we'll be abandoned. Whether you will be able to raise money, I think, is the that's a functional equivalent of being abandoned Loretta. What were as the Poles closed, we got. This leak from the DNS Say, Dnc about their covert effort, on the part of Doug Jones didn't want anybody to know that they had inserted thirty operatives on the sly into the state, a million dollars on behalf of Doug Jones, because they wanted to keep this sort of a sort of Oj Sub Rosa effort on the part of those genes. Now let them know that this was the devil. A party nationally was coming in there and that's a good model honestly as smart, smart witted job to work on their behalf of what they have done, that I have a dental neglect of genes is going to operate as a Democrat,
I mean people are now kind of thinking about whether or not those zones is gonna. Flip parties before twenty twenty right well, except that was an interesting troll last night from Korea, gardener the head of the national central can't republican Santoro com. Senator from Colorado one of the examples of somebody you pick two bs or of moderate a conservative with tee with a without with here and phase out how I got it. His election was was flipped on abortion rights who was ran back was going to win that seed. It was likely going to lose in the primary right a priori, primarily as a and they and they bought out they bought Campbell. He got himself how seed in exchange, regarding one of flour, users and innovations and twenty fourteen, which mulatto Republicans emulated, was advocacy for over the counter oral contraceptives.
The means of getting around the the abortion issue in our ocean right. So my point is oh, so Corey gardener was the guy who said we will not give a nickel to Roy more. He should not be in the south the head of the fun raising Committee for Senate candidates, out of the Senate, and, of course, the problem National Committee, following the president's led last week under these strangely be named Rhonda Mcdaniel, formerly known as run a Romney Mcdaniel, but now the cheese and fealty to trumped. She is no longer allowed to professor fealty to her family of birth, with earth. Aim of through money at into the Roy more race, so Craig Gardner said he would not support more and more And then he put out a tweet last night, which I thought was. Very amusing and got people bizarrely angry in the way of it.
Weird way gave bizarrely angry when he said you know, Doug Jones is what, this race, and you know for his sake and for the country. I invite him to took caucus with Senate Republicans, in other words like look you're you're serving Republican Stay, you won because you hey, ran against this lousy guy you wanna, you really want to maybe win in the next round and twenty twenty caucus with come join with us in a heavy exact effect that was supposed to just about its idiot Democrats, got what, how dare he This is terrible, but you know it's like he'd he knows it puts chug chums, isn't gonna carcass with the Republicans. I just thought it was it was fight was like up. It was like a fun moment. You know it's like when politics is full. Is when people do like mild, WWW mischievous wildly missed, those things that have no can't just button pushing speak.
The lousianner so firm of Roy more. Let's dwell on a just. One last time, and then I hope I never have to hear the name Roy more again these for for a long long time, a debt is, I hope, there's a bombing used to say a teachable moment and I hate the phrase as it is condescending, but a teachable moment for four even juggles another some sort of polite activist base in states like Alabama, the pastors and so forth, lined up behind. It is just that damage that this guy has has wrought today to the good name. I think other of a movement with which I intend to find a care lot about, which is the movement to protect Thank tee of unborn life of a witch is concerned also about euthanasia, abortion, a whole gamut of issues where social service have something very important to bring to the public square, but don't bring him to the public square in the form
of a guy, and I ll set aside all the sexual harassment allegations, let's just conceded they're all falsely, even though I don't think there it's not about that. A guy who, who says The last time the country was really great was when we had slavery, a guy who who thinks that all the amendments, after the tenth actually damage the country. Someone who again, we ve gone through the litany before, but we who suggests that very states are living under Sharia LAW and Muslims camp swear on their holy book if their elected to office all this stuff, it's gonna, alas, and lady in in the young. If, if you do thing, is a culture wardens about winning the middle in any kind of culture where and when you run people like this, you down,
the cause and a lot of people just think social conservatism in they see Roy Moors Picture and that's not gonna, go away anytime soon, you're right, you know- and I think this is an important point- that election stone you know, o displease intellectual ends, doesn't mean the issues raised by the election. Don't an argument. Example what I mean Marion bury the former mayor of Washington than new way was mayor than a wee wee owes caught in a sting smoking crack and he went to jail. Many came back the diverse, ok, so primary barriers that he became a punch line in jokes and after dinner speeches everything for like ten or fifteen years, but it wasn't just that he was a punch line. He was an object lesson reminding people.
Of what the excesses of a certain type of urban mayoralty could lead to very important early nineteen laid eighties early nineties crack epidemic. You know municipal corruption, the wave of republican mayors came in and the ninety nine these owed something to the fact that there was this figure in marrying bury representing the worst of what mayors could do. I dont think Roy more has those legs and part crises. You know he didn't get to the Senate and obviously would have been infinitely more damaging in this realm. If he had got into the Senate, but he's pretty famous now and as a rallying cry for Democrats and as a somebody that Republicans have to brush away constantly, he could have some legs. I can have a debt
it's worth like you could have eighteen months worth of legs. At least I tell you, I don't think: there's gonna be any teachable moment here, because and I'm gonna have to clarify what I say here. Primary voters did not vote for Roy more over Luther, strange and more brooks because, because look past his his indiscretions, they voted because of the sexual indiscretions were asked.
Not so only tell you that negative illogically accuracy is the accuracy. His roof is judicial. His refusal to accept with well now randomly man the fact that he was generally a risky bat. They voted for him for the same reasons. They voted for Donald Trump is because not because their bigots, and not because there you know particularly retrogressive, it's because their transgresseth it's because they appreciate who he frustrates they like, who he and noise they like the fact that he is barely electable, because they don't want to appeal to that mushy centre and they sure as Hell. I don't want to appeal to the coasts. They want to send a message to very small group, but it is up group, and they get a lot of cover from people who say that the ideology that would allow people to elect a Marian bury the conditions under which therein, their day, The reality is something that we need to understand is something that we may need
Patronize and ITALY sympathise with because this is a cry for help, an expression that we need to digest and except not combat or guess what? I guess, what has to be fought and it has to be confronted directly or will? I think that this this? This brings up really interesting point, which is that, among Republicans now you have served camps and parties at cross purposes, which is you so you have the sort of the Roy Roy more voter, who want, above all, to be Transgresseth, as as as oh just laid up, you have these so called establishment. Republicans, religious, though, that the conservatives who want to sort of tried to steer things it in curative direction, keep things within the realm of of sort of established conservative policy, and then you have Trump who really wants to once wins and and once once not be discredited and, as you know, sort of not necessarily anywhere ideologically between the two. This
so. This is something that that's that's, gonna have to be sure of negotiated out in the four in the in the in the future, for fur republicans will what, where war, the? What are they What are they? What are they produce? No there's going to be no negotiation because, of course, Trump has no path and therefore there is no way to guide him off the path or to suggest that he take a new path or to modify This path because he's following no path- and that, of course, is one of the transgress of qualities about him that was attractive to enough people in the republican base that he won. The primary now remember he won the primary, we'll have to say this again and again, because it's important
You may now have eighty percent of Republican saying that they that they prove him. He one forty five percent of the republican primary, not sixty five percent, not seventy. Five percent me one forty five percent in winning the election. That is important because it means that there are a great many republicans. Fifty five percent of I've ever roads who do not have borne not invested in him, except to the extent that he is not the Democrats, and he is not here now and he whatever he is. So if he does well, if things are good, if everything goes well, they're, fine with them and they voted form and their fine with them. But if it doesn't go well, as was the case with sage,
George Hw Bush, one thousand nine hundred and eighty who won fifty three percent of the vote. Mind you but with somebody in who and whom nobody was particularly invested, was Reagan's third term when things go sour even after he wins a colossal military victory. Eighteen months later, he is up liver, he gets thirty percent of the votes You know in ninety. Ninety two is out on his ass trump sits at thirty three to thirty eight percent approval rating last night among the people who turned out to vote in Alabama. His approval rating was forty, eight percent in Alabama. That means that a great many people who voted for him didn't you to vote and that the people who did come out to vote among Republicans did not make up a majority. Basically, that was the more voter war got about forty eight percent trump has a forty percent of overrated
visit this man a state that term pass the believe that he can win sixty five percent in into Twenty, if he's even gonna, have a chance of winning re election to this. This principle thought that I had, I alluded to know something I rode early after from one, but he doesn't trump doesn't benefit from Trump ISM at large. He doesn't need other risky candidates. He doesn't need you know, what's reckless standard bearers out there, that that strategically does No good he's he's the only one that can seem to make that work. He needs conservative right. So that's my point. So in the end he is Obama Album. As a genius are getting Obama, Lected Obama is toxic, for Everybody else in his party because his he is a singular thing now is that toxic in terms of the law, We're leftist agenda remember what the real this is. This is the other core difference between trumpet Obama that, as president
Obama, had a wildly productive. First, sixteen months in office, he passed Dodd Frank. He passed Obamacare, obviously famously trillion, dollars, stimulus and the partially national as the automobile industry. The response to Burma was woe, You just spend two and five trillion dollars, while we weren't looking and over and completely overhauled american health care. Will we told you not to we are putting six three Republicans in to stop you from doing anything else. Trumpets bear we done anything and he, as people saying wall, because what he does isn't legislative. What he does is emotional, its mood. It's it's a question of the spirit of the country and what at what
represents as the chief executive in the oval office and his personal compartment, and I tell you that is something that. Is harder for him to change than legislation. Number one because it's who he is and he likes who he is apparently, and secondly, it is something that will be very hard for the people who disapprove of him To find the means to prove of him even she does well, even if the country grows by four percent, and so Republicans are gonna pay. The exact same price that Democrats paid for broccoli without any of the legislative achievements. The Senate then play now the said it wasn't in play yesterday the senator we label has anyone ever really shaky. If Democrats turn out like they did yesterday, they will take the Senate. Ok. So let's talk about what that means very quickly. It means that Jeff like is not running in Arizona right biggest trump Trump on the Trump peons kind of
an amount of random out of town on a rail right now you'd how the quarter there was a good recruiting, Denison right, so Philbrick Then the former governor of Tennessee is gonna, run as the democratic Democrat conservative Democrat and Christian Cinema is the problem. The democratic candidate for Jeff, flakes Aid Emmy republican candidate may be an absolutely vital. SK, dusting, lunatic horror, lame, Kelly Ward, who will be, the railway more of twenty eight team for the damage so that right out of Roy Moors, there could be a lotta Roy Moors, but in this case we have a roy more sitting there right sitting there. Right there smack dab in the middle of the road and rail there? You got. Two seats got that go. You know if the mood is the waiters today that those two seats go democratic and the Senate goes down
but there can be some ever to say among Republika. We can't let that happen again. I will there be well, but this is your point they need not trumpet, but rump everybody at about the need to trump for Trump, not to go at their jug, and this is the question: can you be a non trump conservative about the need, a trump as necessary, and twenty eighteen, when we re every act of bow. Me, turn you into a trump. Even where where do Rubio and lets say Linsey Gram Fit into this kind of model of your principles: conservative, but they both The knee well well well with things as they are already in the sound, so we're talking about. Never let I haven't win a primary and twenty twenty one. Instagram is that of preventing twenty, and he is becoming very obsequious. While we are debating the weariness, I don't think it's about twenty twenty, while it's about
he wants to be highly once say once Rex Tiller since right here, he could well that you like, and so he is lame labeling it on thick with the playing golf and this- and you know why did this morning's Donald Trump was right about the dorsal moves are strange Rubio is an interesting case in a different way raised by last night. Rubio is unhappy with the tax bill as it stands, because it because it favours business, cuts over family friendly cuts, he's right by the way and Ps Donation and last night, and so the thing now is we'll get you one fuel Republican Sanderson. There.
And he and Susan Collins of main are both making noises about the problems with the tax bill. Rubio has eight, has an interesting high stakes, hand to play now if he came out today and said, make this change or I'm not voting for this bill. That is very big and he has not so far shown willingness to take that kind of risk, but he's in there for another five years, he won its way. You know he won he one in twenty sixteen and he doesn't like the bill and it's likely to be the only building they get through before the election next year. What maybe he should play the hand? I don't know, I mean trumpets, alot weaker now, the brazilian leadership, is alot weaker. Now everybody I hate him, but so why so I ve been where they won't hate. It may be a lot of people. One of the bill has what was the favourite ability reining in the bill in the last pull thirty percent yell,
right, so so it's not as though a fee. If he speaks out against there might be Republic, is a sea saw you lose one Republican by making them happy lose another one somewhere else. Right anyway to serve interesting dynamic, but I do think that one other enormous result that has to be looked at in terms of the republican future was the number in the exit pole on voting for Jones or more by age, and here is the key factor you guys between the ages of eighteen voters between the ages of eighteen- and forty four, not eighteen and twenty, nine and thirty and forty four, but eighteen to forty four Jones, one in Alabama. Sixty two thirty eight
Ok, so we're talking about millennials and Jan exercise, all together in a dark, deep red state, going three fifths special election for the Democrats People said, and twenty thirteen at the time of the Republican, what was the autopsy Kristen sides. As I understand the pollster wrote, a book called the self he wrote about their says. Voters are true,
so far away from the republican Party that you know the future is looking disastrous, and here we have absolute hard writ evidence that the electorate of people over forty five large room, the electorate, people under forty five for obvious reasons. In fact people live till their eighty. So this is one of these is a twenty five year for the others, a thirty five year gap, so so that the older you are in America right now. The more conservative you are, but these people get older, see that's what happens. They get older people drop off at the other end than die, and these people get older and their democrats there, not Republicans they hate Republicans, they hate the Republican Party age is not mystically going to turn them republican. That's not! You know,
It's not like you hit forty five and ding your Republican, now the logic behind that its financial commitments, making more concern right nurse, notably to her two thirty, four thirty to forty four in Alabama, sixty one to thirty eight for Jones. Thirty three, those are people with financial commitments and, time to get out grandchildren. I'm honestly perplexed. When I encounter people who live, you know who her home. There was very little policy distinctions between us in twenty fourteen and two thousand and fifteen, and then Trump came down the escalator and all the sudden we were on slightly different sides of the spectrum who and who people who are older than me, who are the baby boomer generation, the tail end of the baby, boomer generation, sick, late, 60s, early 70s,
and for whom any compromise. Any moral compromise was justified by their insistence that the country was on the precipice of destruction, literally desolate desolation, And this is obviously a construct, the self delusion, in my estimation, that justify it number of compromises in exchange for voting for Donald Trump and it has carried over the Roy more. But it is a very potent animated force among an older generation of Republicans for whom this this type of candidate is not only acceptable, but I think if they were really being honest desirable- and I can't for the life of me, understand why it is so early in aiding that these compromises. The problem is that they view, I think they view- are younger generation as being themselves. Compromise is having no principles and is precisely the opposite. Theirs. They really do have principle.
I really do believe the things they said and, as I said before, growing up in the nineteen nineties coming of age in the ninety nine these I really bought it. When people were on the quota quote moral majority, Arians Christian Right were attacking Bill Clinton for being the moral compromised, perjure, a liar and somebody who have used women and when they attacked and then all the suddenly turned around and they excuse Donald Trump, because, whilst the flight- ninety three election at sea, the desert that at the end of the country, it strike This is being dishonest and disingenuous, and we can't we talk past each other. We can see each other on those on those levels the you describe were I'm where I met pretty well as well as true. So I think what what where we stand here is that the unique circumstances
the God Trump elected and that compelled people organ about foreman who who still support and passionately now to make excuses or find a narrative that meant that comforts them about him. There are many different ones, and then you have the evangelical saying that he is God's instrument, even if he doesn't look like it or something like that. There's that there's that bizarre line of some evangelicals- I mean again, I think we have to exempt. It- is very clear by the weather. Younger evangelicals do not buy this. There is a huge there is a huge demographic divide among even jackals the younger you do not like trumpet than you have Russell more Russell. More of the southern Baptists. Leadership of the exceptions prove the rule. Honestly, though it my point is that we have these different narrative, so there's the Higgs really takes it to the media, theirs they. He is God's instrument. There's he's gonna, then appoint judges and you know, do a lot of deregulating
all of that, some part of all of which may or may not be true, but it has nothing to do with the fact that there is he sits there. You know he said the astride. The narrow world like a colossus and tweets down at people, and you know, doesn't give anybody a moment. Peace and reminds everybody who dislikes him every moment of every day. But he is sitting there disturbing their peace and there are way more of them in this country than there are people who find that comforting enlightening are heartening, and that is the same. Bull bath fanatical reality here is that all things being equal, Republicans are going to be crushed and twenty eighteen and Trump is going to be truck crushed and twenty two
because you only get to run it's like famous set bugs Bunny cartoon when he and daffy duck or costly trying to one up each other there on a vaudeville stage and they keep trying to one hundred and ten adapter. That can't get a laugh. And then finally, he swallowed say a stick of dynamite, then blows up and the audience applauds and he's floating up to. Heaven is a ghost and and and Bulgaria I gotta. Do you? Don't they love you? They want bore. It says I can only do it once you only had the vote. You only get to rub against Hillary Clinton once you don't get to do it twice and he's the eighty three percent in the polls and he is going to lose unless something change, so here's, ultimately, where this logic leads. If the logic is while the country is doomed, unless I vote for Donald Trump and make all these moral compromises, then if He is a dead end himself. Then you're just a I didn't in pursuing that that destruction
justified in saying. Well, ok, this place is going to hack anyway, so forget about it. So I do so not that you can say is not as though you can save it in public and bases that that's returned by age, while the agency, the older republican basis, not as though you can say, while this is going to do the agenda, your your your agenda items that you prefer, the policies you prefer to see enacted will not be enacted unless you change tack, I dont think that resonates once you ve consummate convinced yourself that the country is doomed Norman. What I mean you're you're, basically saying it's like maybe three electronic Bulgaria selling, that we got a crash the plane. So ably point was that there are these divides and republican Party, and neither are they have to be negotiated at the problem. For he's. Gonna have a future. Well, they're not gonna, be negotiated. As I said, but the question now is: what does this mean? I think what it means is that there is a we define the republican base in a certain way and the question is: will there be another republican bet? Will there be a competing republican?
ace against the current sitting republican base. Will the people who do not want Democratic back european socialist leaning style rule two Bernie Sanders, or you know some of the little to the writer Bernie Sanders rule to govern this country. Are they going to take up arms against the Republicans who are making it impossible for who were who are who were hastening the possibility of that happening in the future that, by definition, people who are more moderate unless passion about politics don't get involved in politics. The way lunatics- and you know any logs like us- do but
if they don't there is held up. There's gonna be held up, as you mean within the Republican Party in the war I sort of break off another, as I know it has to be within the republican Party. Any fracture of the Republican Party does the same thing that Why people who say I can no longer be a republican or something like that, but that's all well and good. It's fine so either join the Democrats. Are you have to withdraw because the because its effectively becoming its effectively joining the other side? To do that? Oddly enough, I'm I'm not I'm not saying this morally or a horde of totally. I mean this country has a two party system, the electoral college, almost mandates than the Sesar of a two party system, because you have to get a majority. The electors in order to be the present unite, states so or majority, has represent a merger in the House of Representatives gets
though either way you have to be part of one party or the other person who is a person of no party cannot win. So it's actually impossible. It's why there hasn't been a new party in this country and a hundred and fifty five years. If that happens, it'll happen after midterms when when they, when the wreckage is undeniable, and then when the Democrats are presenting legislation for Donald Trump design that he signs, that is not in keeping with with conservative principles and then they would, there will be a stand to take and envy and there will be no strategic reason not to take it. The reason-
I think the trump as it turns out, isn't too entirely accidental political figure with remarkable in with a remarkable instincts of a certain type, but bad ones, and another is simply this that Bannon said in December of twenty sixteen we are going to cut the legs out from under the Democrats and the liberals for a hundred years by admin. Waiting for you know, essentially a trade war with China and a giant infrastructure program. This will eat out the heart of their own base. It will steal them for us and we will own them and all this- and you know, I think, very little of Bannon, but that was the thing that I think Chuck Schumer was the most afraid of what. If Trump came to him and said, let's get together, put our heads together and come with the trillion dollar, improve the infrastructure bill. How could you say no on what grounds could he deny?
outreach from the present I'd states on a classic Democrats of Ec Boondoggle Spending programme and Trump didn't do it and he didn't do it because he didn't know he had two. He didn't understand. He doesn't it understand Clinton triangulation the port, the reason that you, the reason that you throw rope to the other side both to pull the men and to let them hang themselves with, and he is a pitcher with one petrol. That's all I have greater as ass Bali does occur because never slider- and you know about I had the same weaknesses. Obama had a moment after he did all this and after the TWAIN elections. When he could have done what Clinton dead and tat to the centre- and it turned out- he didn't have this- gills to do that. He didn't have a skill say you know what we got, everything that we needed to get now. Let's super: let's, let's try to balance the budget. Let's deal with entitlements, let that be
as all he knew was these people must be destroyed and everything I've done is wonderful and the liberal agenda is important and you know he could have solidified his and his party's control over american politics, and instead he alienated the american people from it to advance your point. What was it that Donald Trump pursued instead of working with Democrats of our First thing the travel ban are the idea. Was that still Balin and remember again, here's another thing about them about this about the way the White House, the incompetence political competence that would lead you to endorse. Luther strange when he was gonna lose and then to endorse doors were more last week. When there was all sorts of data he was gonna lose some. It is, you do traveled. The last thing you do sloppily, the last,
then you do sloppily. Is the travel ban? That's crazy! Like go oh take your constitutional lawyers. Have them sit down, have them draft something that we'll be impossible, as finally happened after three different drafts they figured out how to do it so that it was acceptable language institutionally and am and use that nineteen fifty two National Security ACT to its advantage. You do and then you win the victory without triggering gigantic protests,
the airports and the result of giving the resistance. Yet another thing to rally around there might still be vis to reckon with what, if everything we're saying comes to pass, there's that there is an anti trump wave in mid terms predicated online, what we saw last night, but what, if the white Working class in this country likes what they ve seen from this administration, but what? If what if they are fairly contented with with with what's become of them during the Trump years? If if, if the economy better famed if they have more jobs. If, if their wages are ok, then what I mean where, where does aspect? Will anyone recently here? I know many one fry six percent, but what am I? What have you know does what, if he'd effectively does good by them now will then know, then, though,
what form again, and there are enough of them to get him to fifty percent. I mean that's the problem I mean maybe they're. There tributor geographically so brilliantly- that he can pull off the same trick that he did last time it's not as though he didn't win them in the first. He won them by larger margins and eight ones when the Bisons radium and eighty four and everything to the point that you could draw from from AIDS argument is, if that happens, it'll be harder to do. You suggest I had that John, which is a responsible remaking of the party or a or a break with trumpets, and because these this they will, these elected officials will continue to fear? Eight, these small but significant minority, it or say large. Minority of voters who watched in a four percent growth in manufacturing wages are up pretty dramatically and
You know how do you deal with their? How did you with their happiness, keys at thirty five percent? In the polls I mean that's the answer to your question is yet, if he, if he goes up ten percent in the polls, we'll be in the lot better shape and twenty twenty, if he doesn't go, a forty. He loses and, as EVA said, did you said earlier? The only reckoning that's gonna be had is going to come when there is a spectacular loss that can't be rationalized away. You, gotta gotta hit. Bottom people can still rationalize it away with one nine scented seeds and twenty fourteen Obama came at the next day and said: well, you know only a third of the country voted so Billy. This is only a third of the country you know switching over. It doesn't really change anything, thus giving an idea them so, you have twenty four, the monitoring, whether the reckoning now number I'm saying it was a, it was a follow. I was it was. It was four years
after the first reckoning, and he still didn't reckon with the reckoning. So he thought everything was maybe that was a twenty Tom was, I shall lacking There was a loud and twenty fourteen was the we better, not Domini Hillary Clinton or we're gonna lose two Donald Trump and twenty sixty, not that everybody knew, but what it meant was. The table is set for publicans two women, twenty sixteen don't nominated a crook and uninspiring crook, because them thereby gives good, nominated, a lunatic unprepared, lunatic and they'll still win, but, of course, Obama. As I said, Obama didn't have enough pitches in his. You know it didn't did. No one. In the odd way, Obama's genius was entirely directed toward his own political fortunes and had no understanding of the wreck, so he was visiting on his own party and now we are going to see this again. The one difference between Obama trumpet
Publican party is not transport. He just like album. Literary in them. A narrative and oratory skills were all directed towards one speech, one pitch, which was of himself of his great life story. Right has Politics where right, but that's a very important note that we should close on. We haven't made good mention of yet at the extent to which this the chaos in the Republican Party has led, as the lack of leadership rather has led to a party that is kind of a war with itself, and the Roy more thing brought that out. Donald Trump went I can forth over whether to endorse Roy more and then eventually came out again after the Washington Post of the accusations regarding the women came out and endorsed through more that compelled former Romney the former roaming in the urgency to endorse Donald Trump endorsement with a really piddling ceremonial, offering to the royal more campaign. Not anything. That's gonna be really substantially felt on the ground, but enough to communicate the urgencies, loyalty, Donald Trump that did not
occur in the house. It did not occur in the Senate. The Aral Sea maintained that he should not be seated or not whether you should be when the end our authority and arrest, he led by Korea, gardener and many Mcconnell niche Mcconnell and how speaker Paul Ryan is that I don't care what the pole say. This guy's not fit to be a senator. That's the right message, the messages, the poles don't matter and you have to lead they'll, be led right. Well, voters of ultimately are supposed to leave, and if the, if there were, if the republican base represents republican Party, then the as Hl Mencken said the people will get what they want and they'll get a good and hard. So we got trump and now we may get sanders because we got Trump or we'll get a democratic Senate and Democratic House and Trump will be impeached and he be there probably won't be enough senators to remove him from office and then we'll spend two years in a impeachment
reelection circus, which will mean that we will again not move forward in. All of this could happen with sustained economic growth, of that, which is a sign that this classic way, that we look at politics, which is that you know as long as the country is doing well, everybody is gonna, be happy in nice is not going to happen. Trump is not going to get credit from the sixty percent of people who disapprove of him if the economy goes well, in my view, because they are not inclined to give him credit for anything. We could give him credit for a couple of things given credit for Gore such although, as I have often said, any Republican would have nominated somebody like or such. We can give him credit for the extent of the four the ferocity with which they are doing deregulatory activity, which another Republican might have been more cost
It's about would give him credit for Betty Divorces, moves on camels rate, on campus on and on campus tribunals and on some of the other. The investigations into the question of whether or not asian Americans are essentially being discriminated against in the relative which invention right administration rightly said there are things we can give them credit for the administration round, which was staffed by my pen. It's not about not about foreign policy or from glow others, some bad the elements of the four by the end like it's not clearly that it is and then of course, Jerusalem and some other things so weak and they are not going to those people who have resolutely been opposed to him since the beginning of the presidency are not going to give him credit if the economy goes well, just they'll be in a better mood, doesn't mean they're going to vote for the cap.
Katie likes was the vote for him. He has to be a different person. The party has to be different party and by the way I am not advocating for a fight a new base versus the old days, I'm just I'm kind of analyzing really, which is to say that, if Noah's right and what the, what the, what the most reliable republican core voters want, is you know professional wrestling at the you know at the at the national political level, then we're going to have it and the Republican Party institutionally as of early two thousand and seventeen in the best shape of its organizational life, is going to end up at the beginning of twenty twenty one. You know in a post.
Watergate Guenaud crouch now by where that's recoverable from Mummy Nixon was out and seventy four and there was a gigantic democratic victory night and seventy four and rigour in this region in the Senate, when Reagan became press, the night in area in the Senate, wimp Republican in ninety- it's not as though none of this is written in stone. The republican party is not going to be destroyed in ruins. It's not, you know. Are our former colleague Jennifer Reuben observe summoning the demons of hell upon the Republican Party. There are two parts. In this country. There's not going to be a third, and you know everything is elastic, but you now things are elastic politics or elastic bill Clinton. President, then Obama can be president, Then Sanders can be present for all. We know you know Roy Moors, the democratic nominee in twenty forty. I mean we, that's that the nature of american politics, so
right now, looking ahead the year and a half in is a bleak booting clouds, over anybody with an hour after his comma our died after his name over. It will be a steady The seller, o bra, we're back to all bra I wonder if she's having meetings today anyway, so for Ringwald nor Rossman Insarov Amari, I'm John POT or its keep the candle burning.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-12.