Welcome to the commentary magazine. Podcast today is Monday March, twelve. Twenty team. I'm John onwards, the editor of commentary, a three year old, monthly of intellectual analysis, political probity and cultural criticism from conservative perspective join us. A commentary magazine dot com, where we give you a few free reeds and ask you to subscribe. Ninety. Ninety five for digital subscription twenty nine only five for an all aspects of virtue, including our beautiful monthly magazine in Europe, El Box eleven times a year and I should be saying please, God,

Itunes subscribed to us goaded, whatever stature are even over the other ones are leave a review, because that's what all my friends who have pie ass. They all start by saying good Itunes go to stature. Leave review self. He's do that you guys Therefore, when you leave us reviews- and I'm really grateful with there's is always a bit. While their seniority, hello, Abe, high John, nor men, are associated hello, Noah Hygiene, answerable, Moriarty, writer, hello, Sorra, Asia,. So we're going to the summit with North Korea. It appears president to to call me to filth disgusting genocide, all monster dictator, Juche, pro God of the God atheist, the God of Juche Kim Jong on and that Donald Trump, so ah thoughts sore up to

well before the show, I was saying that I'd. I think it's going to be a mistake, but then no one made a good point that who knows if it'll happen, because so many of the things the president just throws out there seems committed to and then never I realize who knows, I'm not sure what, where I come down on that, but on the whole I just don't see, as with various other areas around the world with his administration? What that? What the strategy is, what is what is the Eu S hope to achieve overall in EAST Asia and where does North Korea fit into that and how would talks advance or hinder what we want to achieve? I dont see that, like like in the Middle EAST there unlike in east and Central Europe, TRAP administration does some good things in a haphazard way. It arms Ukraine. It moves the embassy, but overall there is not a strategy, and I can't see

But what do we want out of North Korea? Me I'd? That's really, so let me put a question to ok, ok, So I'm going to play devil's advocate to make the case for what's going on here, which I don't necessarily believe, I'm just going to make the case So Trump says during the campaign he wants to be unpredictable. He believes that there is a strength in the president being a swerve like a a person who you don't know exactly where it's coming from and keeps you off on your toes and off balance, particularly with internationally, so he spends a year ratcheting or he spends a year with North Korea rat turning up tensions, responding with very extreme rhetoric right we're going respond with earn fury insulting Kim Jong, calling him rocket man little rocket man that all this stuff right and then loan. How rags that you're wasting your time with back channels, right communications whatsoever, whereas government right and lo and behold comes time

for the south. Korea changes governmental, more accommodation, Asta government under under President Moon. And lo and Behold what Olympics happen Kim Jong reaches out sister has it summit meeting with south korean leaders, which apparently very friendly. She says the he's looking he that her brother under dance that milk? Terry exercises between the south, with featuring the south and the? U S, camp loud to continue something that, screens voice. Edward. You know an act of war against North Korea. And then they write this letter arrived. Inviting Trump some would say they're interested in entertaining giving up their nuclear programme so what, if from says to himself hey worked.

I said Ozma unpredictable and look happening here like Kim's folding. I scared him thought he was gonna scare me by scared him and now he's folding and giving up. I I can almost guarantee that's exactly when you thanks. And his business is real coolly drinking supporters. A hundred percent believe that the great force of Donald Trump personality has brought Kim Jong onto the table in a way that he has been at the table for the last twenty five years or the king family. I suppose syrups is a really good one. What is the tactical objectives here? There are none because they don't think they're, not think in those terms, small, tangible, incremental benefits of gauge meant, they are thinking The grandest of possible terms this wool and there are their arson some upsides to the possibility. Of a meeting about a presidential level. Meeting at that point in some neutral party, or even young one is,

You could put a lot of stuff on the table. Not just majesty nuclear radiation when shown from seems to think is on the table, but isn't happening, but you could get a freeze. You could put the long term missile programmes are the long range missile programme on the table with no one's talked about for twenty years. I end that's any Anything that reduces deliverable capabilities reduced then neutralizes. The threats a big deal. Finally- and this is something Nick Everson has talked about a eyes- never sent- wrote him really comprehensive peace for us on North Korea the reality of what North Korea is not just a paper tiger and how to address the threat, which is that internal politics in North Korea being what they are. A lot of internal cohesion is maintained by the fear, genuine fear of a mere and military power and the prospect of american military will reunite the Chancellor, by force, and if that we're off the table, and if America was defined,

then it could shake things up inside the hermit kingdom, a little better could in sent the cream. Power structures that may be are opposed to the king regime yet taken it. Its ultimate conclusion would be. Regime collapse is probably too far, but it is moving in that direction and that's in America's best interests. Those are kind of intangible inaccurate. Possibilities that make this something- sounds like good policy. We start going into the downsides, they they vastly our way only hesitated go and go into the downsides. Well, I think there's one downside that I fear is already serve to lay to two even pull back, which is that this on top of the Obama Years- and they did the nuclear deal that they struck with ran this serve means there is no more hierarchy of regimes, there's no more special club of of doom.

Foresees an american allies from countries that get too get opportunities for some a tree and negotiation that would that worry or exclusive to them. That have been left that that that all these terrible road regimes that are truly globally Destabilizing forces used to not have a shot at getting between IRAN getting the nuclear deal from the Obama administration and now even Trump saying that he's going to meet with with came over this. This It means that the b, the price that you pay for being a rogue regime what one aspect for the price is no longer that you don't get to be in that in the club. With with the big boys, you you

who can now you can? You can be as bad as you want in the end they will send the and the american President will still come to the table and talk to you right now, my friend vodka, you used to say that it is very their wealth for Americans to understand the size of the United States outside the United States, meaning a deputy assistant secretary of state for asian affairs goes to Thailand, and this is a guy who is like the second rank in in the Asian Affairs Department in in the state Department. Like not the assistant secretary, not the deputy secretary, not the secretary and gives a speech a lunchtime speech, at the YO were economic Club of Bangkok and says something, and that thing that he says is front page news in Thailand for a week and gay that is the power of the United States, so the

ideas. You can send the assistant secretary of state to Uruguay, and it is also like they accept his presence. As a version of having the president there and the permanent. That's why all these things the day say in the people, say: work in american diplomacy or so calibrated and boring and filed of any rough edges because words of the United States Boom. Like you know, they're like we're a giant sixty feet tall and if you whisper for most these country it's like a judge, a booming voice that drowns out all echoes now take that and go to the president of the. It states having a meeting with the poorest country on earth. North Korea is the poor, country on the face of the earth. Countries starves its own people and interest to us solely because it is a military threat to us enter

South Korea and the fact that we have men. You know a military personnel stationed in South Korea So suddenly this scale which a sort of what, what able time the scale gets reversed. Does this mean they're? So there are two possibilities: either the present and is shrinking himself the size of this penny anti monster, or here elevating in increasing the scale of the penny anti monster, so that he is no longer a penny, anti monster, but a world historical figure in, zone country end Possum. Led to the world at large canopy, both I don't see why not out there not necessarily mutually exclusive and so you'd shrinking of the regimes means having

with the United States, develop a bomb Brian. I mean now, it's not so easy to develop a bomb. And some countries, but is not so difficult to buy one from North Korea, so it's it's not that of the years that I fear that we have. I mean this is a country that that manufacturers, drugs and exports than that makes a chemical weapons and send them, places using the month, civilians that hasn't a weapons programme, and that has a nuclear, This programme. We have essentially said that you go you neuron, lateral concessions, even asking for for twenty years. The second you make this thing deliverable, that's a huge incentives, a developing nuclear. The costs could not possibly outweigh the benefits, no matter what they are. So basically, you know the whole point about this is it's been clear since Kim Kim's, Father

developed the Knook that Madeleine Albright under Bill Clinton desperately tried to prevent the last serious summit meeting between you know a north korean enough and American was not the president. So two years after that, they basically becomes clear that they are in fact creating fissile material and then their starting ballistic miss this programme at all that that's fifteen years ago now, and we announce we say Christopher held of the: U S, Ambassador South Korea. The time comes out and says, with George Bush's for Russia. We are announcing that North Korea has gone nuclear. So the first response to that was: oh, my god. You, and announced that that's terrible, don't say it. You shouldn't, say it because then everyone's gonna know it and they're not saying it. Why are we saying it?

why are we saying that he violated the nineteen? Ninety four, whatever the name of that agreement? Was the five nations that whatever it was, the Clinton sign. That was basically the bride right. That was, we will get us the hundreds of millions of dollars and food aid to get geek by their silent. So we are now, we basically figured ok any dealings with them. Direct dealing with that was a fool's errand. They're gonna lie they're their cheeseburgers at them with they're going to humiliate us. So when we need to our talks. We need a cushion and, what's more, we need the Chinese materially indirectly involved, because they are the only ones who can read. Punish the north Koreans by cutting them off so ever sat in his peace with us suggests, but if we really want to get tough on North Korea, if we really want to get tough owners rear their steps, we get that would be congruity with trumps announcement of Tariffs and Trade war with China last week.

Sanctioning the chinese banks that support with government fear that support North Korea and you Know- sanction China for taking North Korea's exports and for employment, goods into North Korea, where apparently taking the route that it's ok to impose. You know territory, five percent tariffs on chinese steel, which doesn't really come into this country very much. Two percent of our seal hunt from China, but we're not gonna, do anything to punish North Korea for its nuclear programme. In fact, maybe the story is the Trump is a worse. That was he's not going to do the tough stuff too, to really make the fact that we do I believe that they should have a nuclear programme bite you he's. Gonna rely on having a hail, hearty well meant meeting with him. Whether all smiles and happy and shake hands and then,

Kim says I'm giving up the nuclear programme and trumps as I did it. I did it. I did it and then, of course, three years later, there's theme given up anything there was The tendency in the american presidency, I think in the modern period, which was particularly pronounced actually with President Obama, as as Abe eluded to it, which is this idea that the force and the charisma president itself can move mountains and change the strategic calculations of nations, especially rogue monstrous nations. Like North Korea and IRAN, remember, Obama used almost openly say that the fact that I happen to have some some routes in Indonesia and have this It is my middle name will somehow change. Of various arab nations and the Arabs Street views me There is an element of this in the trunk move as well, but I mean he always has the sense that I can make the deal that no one else can or I can.

A personality is so larger than life that everyone will we'll just love it and end will do America's bidding uneasy image mistake. Look there are various times when we have done that when you know the Kissinger's opening to China and later President Nixon himself went that was situated within a deeper strategic logic of trying to separate the communist world and had made, I think, perfect sense to do so, even though a lot of the hawks at the time were were opposed to it. I think, on the whole, it was good to divorce to two causes rupture within the communist world. The cold war. There's no such kind of logic. Here I mean either I dont understand where it fits other than my personnel. But he will solve this problem somehow it never. Does it didn't work for Obama? I don't think it over for trouble. I agree with all of that there is also a minute tertiary sort of fear here is that Donald Trump could meet with Kim God forbid he meets. Came in Pyongyang and his charmed to death by the

the korean system in the north korean leader and paints a very jolly rosy picture of these of these people, and I think that that's an unlikely to not be the case, considering how we can negotiate and we ve seen how he negotiates because he televise us the things and we watched, he gets rolled by Diane Feinstein, because Diane Vincenzo something nice he wants to make everybody like em, it's not hard to foresee situation where he put something on the table he shouldn't have, and that is the task if things go awry, my biggest concern with all this is that this is the moon shot. The very last ditch experience with North Korea You have a presidential level meeting like this. That could be there negotiations, because, if it fails, no going back to the functionary level and a point. There is only one way to neutralize this programme The only reason whether entertaining the supposedly cause Rex tailors and last August said that we need to see some movement in your behaviour in order to get to that

able, seven August, he said no more missile tests and last missile test was in November. So presumably we ve had time lapse here, where we ve seen some kind of movement in their behaviour, but at the same time they are still manufacturing nuclear fuel. We can see it from space, so it's not so they ve stopped doing the stuff that is bringing us to the table in the first place tat is to say that the conditions have been met for negotiations here is even a conceit. It's all in this. The idea of Donald Trump being done. Tromp who use this great deal maker, the guy who can move mountains and is a very dangerous place to come from when you're sitting down with somebody like the Kim regime, which very calculated these guys know us very well again according to every step although they were reading my pulse books, it might be in no way of knowing you know. What's really horrible is the thought that, because it's perfectly plausible that tramples I'll go see north korea- I don't know if it's gonna happen, but if he does and he'll come back and say, look over there? They have radios. Where were the leaders? Messages are

odd chasm and in the people have to turn on the Haiti, but it's you know what will simply, maybe maybe we'll try that I am a little dry Diana Vision, a sort of a rag and ask reg in Moscow moment, is this evil empire anymore kind of might my heart has softened? No, I dont see it that way what benefit if he if he goes off script God help us, it doesn't show posts. There is about Opie State and going on me. Let's can be kind of impressive work for outsiders that the joke is there The fear around tromp in his temperament was that look with this, if he's gonna blow up over reports, of the size of his crowd, the crackers inauguration, what happens if he gets mad at a world leader and besides he wants. You want just once a new common on the fly, the joke as its theme exact opposite with him. Is that he be be inducement to be loved and and applauded is, is so strong that There is that he will give away the store every time if you, if you

come away. Saying look! Look! Look over it. I am. I mean. Clearly there is something in the modern presidency them inclines. People from that can incline people toward grandly toward a policy. Grandiose city that is reckless looked backward. So George W Bush set always said he disdain small ball, you don't wanna play small ball, meaning in his policies that he wished to advocate me always only advocated three or four at a time you know didn't have of China. We didn't have a three hundred page book laying out but he was going to do in this, but you know, maybe you should play small ball like maybe there isn't what you know? Maybe there isn't you now serve like swing for the fences going,

her grand slam is not necessarily the best possible policy. I think we are all agreed that this table that the IRAN deal was a calamity and it was the ultimate swing for the fences of the Obama administration Trump clearly has this hunger. You know he will want something really big in his name, so maybe it's the tax cuts, though there not as big as you might think, or something like that or you know could be for him. It can be just as something as big as a like a really nice airport, since he seems to care about that stuff, But you know when you start inhabiting the White House for a long time. The possibility that you can bring peace to the world is clearly glowing over your head in the sand.

Term of the Reagan ministration. They were real fears when they had those those summits with Gorbachev. That Reagan was going to serve. You don't Reagan who did have a kind of visionary idea about ridding the world of nuclear weapons, that this was going to lead him to terrible policy calamity, and there was a point when they left Reykjavik, wind Secretary of State George sold, said that he had never been prouder of his president, then at the out, then then Reykjavik because he didn't fall for it it was like Gorbachev. It made him an offer him, he didn't fall for it and there was a real fear that ring and left to his own devices. A loner with Gorbachev would fall for it because you want to walk out saying you know the equivalent the chamberlain I have to say kept coming. I'm saying I brought you piece for our time. No Chamberlain is the cautionary object,

That's not why. That is a terrible thing to aim for numbers. You can see where the seduction to up to a political leader flies and trump. Maybe more than most me more than anyone he susceptible to that can be here. So that's good news, although again we don't know when it is, we don't know where it is. We don't know if it's gonna happen as Noah say I am one other bit about this. Is that the than Initially, everybody said wait a minute, isn't they aren't you meeting with a dictator without preconditions will win we all have this argument eleven years ago, when Brok Obama stumbled into precisely the same position, because it sounded great on the debate stage and somehow became- was position and never actually was realised, and they said no, there three conditions here and they're, basically conditions that have been met months and months ago, so it's kind of retroactively, established conditions, and then there was some back and forth over how conditioning these conditions really were and where they preconditioning enough

So they're really wasn't any policy here. It was just Donald Trump improvise. What does it just four months of no testing right, which isn't that that much rapporteur now. I got no missile testing. Will we said they're still making nuclear fuel? is the. It is the joy of being Donald Trump that you are perfectly ignorant antinomian in the sense that you don't know what happened before Are you so it doesn't we're not really help and your antinomian, because you are the law, so the notion that there are rules to be gay, you know you there are less, to be learned from history and all that you're, not interested. In that case, you are it's year, one you became president and you will reform policy in humanity, as you see fit and end. So now to be fair again, There are ways in which that can lead to creative. You know the server,

a solution to the gordian knot. You know which is there's the gordian knot. No, you ve had a tight until Hercules, gums long. You just cuts it with a knife like never cared anybody not to try to spend twenty years on tying this, not the Campi untie. We have a practical example of it. It was assumed it became bedrock us sure that when you moved the embassy to Jerusalem, the arab street would be ignite and all your at all american policy objectives in the region would be set back a hundred years. Were that has not happened? Can you take a victory lock as we with definite call that, where right, we do actually wrote a blog posts celebrating Donald Trump ability to see past that sort of diplomatic. You know, myopia by ree listing North Korea as a state sponsor of terror. So there we should share. We are now so, but you know I'm just saying that there are ways in which these school erotic policy making system or where you can be so eyes so

I'd up by historical example that you can't get anything done, and it's one of the you know that it's a thing that imposes a kind of caution this deleterious amassing. Probably that would have been the Hillary Clinton presidency would have been knowing every possible fall and then being paralyzed and unable to figure out where to go from there rather than look beyond you know it's like anyway, and you know, if you want to look beyond Noah, if you want to take a good look at the world beyond your own home. I want to talk to you guys about tripping Badcock, MAR Arson, today do you know that the average family visits five totally different websites, overbooking, a vacation rental? Well, you can spend less time planning your next trip and more time waxing with tripping dot com, the worlds, when Cyprus, vacation rentals its trusted by millions of travellers featured by the New York Times Travel, leisure forms and more, whether you're looking for

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Special action takes place in November when the entire map, rational map of the savings of India, is revised due to a court decision, and so this election is entirely symbolic, it has no meaning it has no policy meaning this guy? Who for wines is gonna, be voting in the house for a couple of months before they go away to try to get re election. And as one guy it afforded thirty five, it's not going to change the bell. Of anything, but it's very important, very important. Why Noah? Why is it important? The domino theory? Essentially, we are in sinking costs into this race like nobody. Business, the candidate for the Democrats, Conor Lamb has raised a ton of money. The Republicans are sinking a ton of money behind rather uninspiring candidate Mexican, and everybody is invested in this. Has a proxy fight for what's gonna happen in November, because it

has become a very competitive race in place that really shouldn't be competitive. Wanna go down as a cat, so it's a suburb of Pittsburgh Well a suburban district and went for Donald Trump. Twenty points timber. Free, ran unopposed in twenty. Sixteen, a Democrat didn't run in twenty fourteen last time. A Democrat ran for the district was two thousand and twelve and they got trounced. It is a red district and Trump country should be crunch from country yes Tariff town in Trump Landon, prairie trompe. So The fact that this is even competitive suggests that the notion that there is no blue wave is a little bit more in people's heads than that on the ground by the fact that its actually really competitive and could go a Democrat suggest that you can draw some broader conclusion. About what the environment gonna be like next November. This, what's really important here or is it the result does not matter I mean by that, is if the result is close, the result is

the thing you want to look at if the Democrat Conor Lamb winds by one point or loses by one point or wins by two were loses by to the net. Meaning is the same, which is a district that was won by Republicans by twenty points, has shifted in high double digits up to twenty height to the Democrats, and whether or not Conor Lamb ends up as Representative Conor, Lamb or almost winner, Conor Lamb is immaterial. It is that, if the Republican Bob Saccone wins I seven or more, I would say that would be the result. That Republicans would be hoping against hope for because it would suggest that the political cost of trumps effect on republican voters has not been as bad as they fear that it might be now. No. I was so well

happen now. You have to gave it out so LAB Windsor loses by small margin or security wins by a reasonable margin. The net result of this? One race could be very dramatic because you could have every Republican in a Trump district, with a theoretically, possibly competitive race. Deciding I'm like, if he can't win, I can't win. If he's only go one by one or two points I could lose by one or two points are not going to spend six months fun doing this. Doing that, when I could go often be a lobbyist, go back home and run my business, it's just not. For me, this is not going to go well what I thought I feel like it's difficult for Democrats to lose this in that sense, because

They did not take any negative lessons from Georgia. Six very high profile special election, where the wonder kin us off narrowly laws to care and handle, and that was dispiriting, but it didn't stop requirements. It didn't stop. Fundraising, hasn't had any effect on the job, ballot. This is not Alabama. Special set of election Roy, more is not Rick's. Opponents on is not Roy, more he's pretty uninspiring Kay. But he's not a flawed candidate. Conor Lamb is not a Jones. Dr Jones was placeholder frankly Ireland is a pretty good candidate he's running aggressively he's shit fits his district. He's is, was charismatic and telegenic he's a good politician archetypal. So I can see why we're Democrats would take some some strong lessons from this. If he one obvious but I can imagine that they're they're going to do

restoring lessons from it, if you lose it, I mean ultimately again, even if it's a seven point loss, I feel like we ve got into the stage here where, I'm across our are more engaged them Republicans as privileged baked, and we have all this evidence of it. It's not going away, here's my thoughts of it and in terms of its predictive ability regarding a wave of Lamb, either comes within in out, points of winning or wins it. I think the most of the most that tells us is that the wave the Democrats to lose between now and noble, and I still think that that is that it continues to be a possibility. Given how unstable both they are and the opposite and their opposition is

even though this thing that they think that they have to have this this agenda, and I really don't think they need an agenda because when they, when they advance their agenda its let's raise taxes on everybody, they literally came out with their tax plan and its two high corporate taxes, two percent into higher taxes in the higher tax brackets, and that is their plan. That's the agenda They don't really need an agenda all we need to be as the Anti Donald Trump and that's that something that is convince thinkers in them Craddock circles that it's sort, I guess still to feeding or vat better, I'm not sure what they think, but whenever it as they think they need an agenda. I don't wanna go I agree with you when I say this before. For another reason: they don't need an agenda because the the ant Tromp position is at least a unifying feature of of what's happening on the left, once you get into the agenda once you get into well, what about the activists wing want and what? What do? These establishment democrats want? where they fighting, then you can you get fractures, as well as an up and unpopular agenda okay. So

We have some data to suggest how the wave would work and then say that that this does have predicted quality, because these races have had these specials before other elections. Other mid term elections have had comparable predictive quality and it all has to do with the amount of the swing toward one party or another. So, for example, in twenty fourteen, according to Harry Antin of CNN, the average swing of a house seat

toward the party in power work towards parliament held a sea was too toward the Republicans was four points and the National House Margin for Republicans was six points in twenty six in two thousand and six, the average swing towards Democrats. In a year. The Democrats, one thirty four seats or thirty two seats in the house- was fifteen. The Democrats, one by eight from two thousand for no two thousand sick from two thousand from two thousand or exactly and a ninety. Ninety four, the republican swing was plus nine and the National House Margin was plus seven. So what that tells? You is if you have a swing and if cyclone loses by six seven, let's say that still a twelve point swing were some like that thirteen point swing. So let's say that the March of the national margin is much lower in that ill. So that'll be a nine point, swing and eight point swing towards

grants and that will be enough to win them the house going away and likely challenge republican dominance in the cell. Where is the idea that there isn't this blue wave on the horizon even coming from that? The idea is that it's coming from private Ray Data in Texas. No, it's coming polling closing in January that has reopened It's gonna be rolling down taxes, Red generic SIRI, of generic senators winning

a variety of reasons. In olden, only one polo I'm sometimes identify forensically aware of what happened was there was a kind of republican sigh of relief in January when the Generic Pauling, that is due, would you vote for a democratic Republican in November, started tightening again with a democratic majority, but two three or four or five or six points when it had been in double digits in December, where Brook Democrats were the head by twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen as happens. Let this last couple weeks that generic pull has widened again in most of these poles to ten to fifteen, and now we have this race that is going to be here was a is a hard

ensure that this is literally what harbinger is its march. The elections in November Spring so like Groundhog Day, will show that there will be a long winter ahead or or that door. The winter will be soft uneasy. May I wonder how much this has to do this more recent decline in the Republicans generic ballot numbers has to do with the with the trade trade threats, because so many economic indicators were pointing north, so many positive and most recently the five eight jobs numbers Doc market, there was a little bit of a and inflation anxiety, but now it's rightly any man. I've got a job numbers were three hundred and threaten jobs. Rim. Three thousand jobs

So why would from a necessarily create this national anxiety about the possibility of a trade war which could be economically destructive if the wave does happen, in spite of, in spite of the economic numbers, I would say it's in in large part due to this unnecessarily The harsh trade rather well, there was thought that this that he announced it to help this race, in particular by the way which you know will we will only no one. It happens because there's none appalling to tell us what the effects are. I think you're looking to specifically of any specific thing, including if there is good macro economic newsletter, job numbers and low unemployment that doesn't necessarily have gradually rags true, unless the good economic NEWS translates

to a good economy that dramatically helps people before the elections so that they are feeling much better and they like the incumbent, and they feel good about Trump, whether that happens or not. Nobody really knows it appears that the economy is in very isn't startlingly good shape and the net result of that will be, among other things, an increase in interest rates that the FED will start. Increasing interest rates have already dead and they will. It will accelerate that in order to make sure that this job growth differently some kind of runaway inflation. What's it was interesting to me also said it, because this is the deepen trump land. It's one ye it's more than a year of the trunk presidency, if you are a denizen of trump land. He has done Well by you, I mean he is he's done the things that animated you in the first place about him, whether it's

the travel ban, words, deregulation or its even v, V, v, the that errors which are a bad idea but which presumably a large portion of his base imports, which would suggest me that, This is sort of as good as a showing as you. He could get. I mean he has not done wrong by them and the economies up. So this is since the start of this is that this is the full flowering of of of the term presidency in that regard, he's let them down. So I have a theory along the lines. I was kind of concern that the theory of proven false after the tax bill passed in the show the Democrats really inflating the it its impact it and absurd ways, and because the tax bill allowed negative impact it because tax bill. Allow Republicans to take ownership of good economy in the minds of voters and then Jerry Bela, started to move. I thought, maybe the economy might have an impact on this race now, because its root perverse

didn't returned to something resembling a mean. I don't think that's gonna happen. I think this is a a referendum on Trump and it is a referendum on trumped because of what they think from country that he delivers, which isn't necessarily economic values but cultural values that he is aggressive. He is combative. He fights will have He is demonstrative of the eighties and easily A symbol of their kind of ethos and their anxieties and in a symbol of their willingness to fight back against what they think is. Cultural oppression from That is a thirty sixty proposition the exact same thing that makes them. Energized is the exact same thing that makes his opponents energized, and this will be referendum and Donald Trump because it can help himself. He goes to Pennsylvania last night and does priest. Tightly. What makes me really energized ahead to the polls and vote against him now. The other part of this, which does speak to Soroban Trade, is that what will break Republicans in November is if soft trump support among Republicans,

not base cell drag myself over. You know seventy seventy percent or whatever, even though eighty percent of republican saving room and pulls out more like sixty five to seventy percent of Republicans are really enthusiastic and there's another. Thirty percent of that thirty percent remains is soft and doesn't feel particularly good about voting in November. There will be a wipe out and I'm not sure that his behaviour absent there there. Those are the people who will respond to results right. So if things go well the North Korea negotiate if this- that, if he solidifies Republicans vine and Republicans, tend to vote in mid term elections, particularly when they could vote against Palmer, they tend to go out. The poles and vote

or we can have a repeat of two thousand six when disheartened Republicans, who liked George W Bush but felt disheartened by the results of his presidency. Just basically stayed home and Democrats drag themselves over the broken glass and wonder, or you can have nineteen eighty four forgiven agenda for which is of which is at a total repudiation, basically of the previous two years. I think that harder to pull off, because what happened in nature may for was the final move of the diet. Let's call them the dino districts as debt Democrat, in name only districts that we're still democratic but were largely conserving republican flipping to them, eight. Finally, in what I want to exploit their lives, because there are some real conservatism on the part of these and captures who are saying that the generic ballot in order for Democrats even have a chance really to take a couple of seats over the Twentyth, where they need to win that guy

majority you need to be in double digit generic ballot territory. Like ten points, it strikes me as very conservative, but there the real the the rational was. The rationality is pretty much which concepts that their district, sir, gerrymander disappoint the keeper incumbent, safe and, while the Republicans are still overexposed from the Obama era they're not so exposed. It was really reversion to a kind of political mean in these, These suburban districts, for example, letter that are out there and vulnerable, so Republicans can expect that the upside for Democrats is pretty well limited And I just don't know about that. Every time people count on gerrymandering to keep their their police

opposition safe it. It fails them. I don't know about that either because it such a mechanism that understanding of politics and it doesn't get to the emotions and politics which are so important, which one of the things that people missed about the Trump rise and twenty sixteen and how he laughed Hilary. The wind, which is that, if the emotions of Democrats are engaged in the notion that their vote will save the country from this terrible deprivation and the emotions are Republicans our go out there to give Democrats and others that's those two are not comparable and the than the nation wide effect of the trump really needs you and you know, give them when they blow raspberry blow another raspberry in their faces. You're, just not matching you just don't have an emotional. Match. Now we just as I say, we don't know what the conditions are gonna be, which is why all this does so speculative, but I think no, no is right in the sense that

so. If you follow this very gradually, the the extreme conservatism of the prognosticated is very striking. I think it is probably better that they be modest than they be arrogantly, asserting that there's gonna be a democratic. Take for of everything, but I'm not sure that the historical example support anything. But the idea that the Democrats are gonna take everything over, except not in the Senate, really cause the sentence a whole different structural complication, but in the house, certainly except for the fact that they feel burned there, there's less polling than there used to be in their less results and they used to be, and nobody knows how to make sense out of the current reality at how strong or weak trump is because then you have these other Paul's. These weird online mass, poles and stuff like that, in which Republicans tend to do markedly better than they do in other poles and people are worried. Professional

in this field. To use the scarf at these things and be very dismissive- are now terrified that their missing something in these results, but even those results show that Democrats are gonna, do better than Republicans intimate just based on them apps nothing. I still maintain via my waves, sceptic physician jester just a weird hedge look, it's fine! I mean by the way, there's nothing you don't know. Wave sceptic loses there's a wave because you're like look. I was just being cautious, whereas if you predict away You know what it's like all you thought there was gonna, be a wave and weed I'll. Do it didn't happen now? Are you gonna? Do you better be quiet, very shut, your twitter? We delete your account. I would say that there is a lot do that, though. That's where we're out from twenty. Sixteen is that people are still burnt by the fact that all the bullshit things go in one way and it went the other way

but he got whiplash for examining the damage Rumford really weapon eyes that manage to make that of the egg. They did rise to discredit you, except it was the reverse Romney in twenty twelve, that is to say that Hilary was up by three percent in the polish was not by ten. She was not by fifteen, and I remember we had a conversation here in this office the day before the election, with a bunch of conservative You know serve polling experts and were also going and when Hilary winds, I'm gonna, laugh at so and so said Babo by then, but I mean the fact is that the data, as you know, was it is made silver says like if you ran fifty thousand simulations of the election Trump one in twenty thousand of them. It's not like he'd one in three hundred of them and lost in Freetown, forty nine thousand seven hundred

and then he won the election. I mean he had a you know he had a significant chance to win, but there is a weird thing where you think that forty percent or forty five percent chance beans a ten percent chance, but it actually really does mean a forty five percent chance. However, a generic ballot in two weeks will a week before the election of the Democrats or up by ten or twelve. You know Katy BAR the door, and the whole point here is whether that will be hastened by a lamb victory or a very close lamb defeat, because Republicans who might prevail in November will decide that it's not worth their effort to run and run for reelection because they don't like being there anyway and like trumpet

What we should all hedge With- I guess the standard caveats that they Janeiro ballot doesn't matter this far out and really only indicative of recruiting cycles and fund raising would have you in a really does. After all, that has been added on every its mattered and every in everyone that a million things will happen between now and yet, but it has mattered memory. It has actually matter in every election in the veto in the last six. So it's like it hasn't always mattered, except lately its mattered. So that's out enough you can use. That is also remember that when we're talking about these things and historical trends, we are still talking about relatively few absolute numbers like there's, only been serious polling with multiple firms. So events since nineteen, seventy six- it's not that many election

instead to use as a base line as fiscal baseline. Isn't that exciting? So we will reconvene after leaves out, so the news just came can what this is. This is interesting and will limit their. So my old friend Larry Cutler has now emerged, supposedly as the leading possibility to replace Gary Cone as the national economic adviser. I made fun of Larry last year for supporting trump. So who's the fool now ex our twelve. Sixteen anybody who supports tariff, however, how loud cod low who is as doctrinal a free trader as exists on this planet? What devil, why he would go in

And now you know what he's gonna say and do you know he liked the tax? That's what they're already done so his entire. All you would want to do would be to protect free trade, and that's already over with its pretty clear to me. The Gary Cones biggest mistake was knocking on television. We're having radio show anyway, it's more like other, would Larry's gonna do all day, because there is really nothing for him to do except stand around so boys in this great. Let's do more tax cuts, and you now because he's not gonna say, do more tariffs I soon. So what else can we do? Maybe he says what it wants and with the people of our own per annum,

great adviser and in Donald Trump Inner circle, told Bloomberg NEWS that his job as the is the economist was to reinforce Donald Trump instincts. His instincts are pretty good, so my job is to any said, without any qualifications are very clear that I, my job is to gather data to reinforce the president's instincts of Amerika, welcomes in there and says wrong he'll be doing the country a great service, but I hope that you might make it to him. I mean, if you mean historically, if you, if you come into this ministration saying that you're, that's it you think anyway, so will gather together. Ass words wasn't on Thursday, everyone Rossman answer, Memoriam John, but words.