On this week's first podcast, Abe and Noah and I discuss the crisis of competence suggested by the failure to hand a movie star the right envelope. Might seem silly, but it's never happened before and it's happened at a time when nobody seems to be able to do anything properly. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Some guy Welcome to the commentary magazine podcast. It is Monday Federal, the twenty seventh twenty seventeen and jump on towards the editor of Commentary, commentary magazine seventy two years old, monthly, intellectual property, cultural analysis, both work against Anti Semitism and the defence, the west than its institutions. Please join us a commentary magazine dot com where we give you a few free, reeds and and ask you to subscribe for ninety. Ninety five: for a did, you subscription twenty nine ninety five for an all access subscription
including our beautiful monthly magazine printed mailed, and delivered right to your mail box with me, nor Bosman, Souci rather high on our agenda and a green Walled, our senior editor high Abe John, so german last night at the academy awards. The most astonishing thing happened, which is that more and baby and faded away red off the wrong winner and after two minutes of gradual, Tory itself, Reginald speeches by the because of our land. Somebody whispered in the ear of Jordan Horwitz spruce her while am informed him then fact they had lost the Oscar, two moonlight in the moonlight. Was the action the winner and struck me as I was watching this unprecedented event that it dovetailed with a bunch of things that have been going on in arrogant and indeed in western society, in which one really can call into question the basic competence of the inner world.
Kings of elite institutions that. The Oscars is the second most watched event in the United States, hundreds of millions of dollars of com sir generated by it. The character of price war has where's is responsible for the management of the envelopes in which the winners names are kept hidden and then here it was not come events to hand the right envelope out to the right person to make sure that the most important cultural award given in the world was properly noted and dovetail this as we're talking about before the podcast, with some events of larger moment, not evanescent meaninglessness like who gets a best picture trophy. We
Add to this the indictment, something like the Hillary Clinton campaign, re seven hundred and fifty million dollars had data analytics had this had that had every consulted in the world had every genius democratic brain. Responsible for Brok, Obama's, brilliant, twenty twelve technical VIC. And nobody thought to wonder in the last week whether or not they had shored up their support in Ohio Wisconsin and Michigan such that they could have gotten the extra hundred thousand votes to deny Donald Trump. His eyes victory. Similarly, over the last month, We have seen the spectacle of Donald Trump coming into the White House, I'm having a thirty one year old communication spokesman for Jeff sessions right at executive order incredibly delicate and complex subject of refugee. Status in competent. We thus summoning chaos at airports and success
Full challenges to its constitutionality, a wheel black eye for the administration that came in under the aegis of its had to being a business man who knew how things worked and would clean up the mess in Washington that was made in his terms by all these idiots who may pad deals and don't know what the hell they're doing well, he certainly looks like he does what the hell he's doing. Hillary Clinton look like she had no Adele. She was doing the Oscars look like they don't know what the hell they're doing. And you really wonder, is this part of this institutional crisis in the United States that we have been saying for the last thirty there's no way the lot lack of trust in institutions, but whether American are actually rights to have lost trust in there institutions, not only because they don't seem to be doing a good job above serving their interest, but because they don't seem to know how to do anything properly and competently,
now, what's your taken take on that little LE lecture, I just delivered there one of them good luck. I think I'll I'll. Thank you. I'm gonna use that, as a jumping off point is to ask the question of everybody that I already know the answer to because we discuss this previously, but you dear listener, we're not privy to that so it sir, essentially a theme of sort of working hours. Towards in that Johns logically, due to the necessary inclusion that, while our expert class doesn't really know what the heck their doing. So, why don't we just defended straight them and take over the shop? You know it's it's. Most a sort of view of the nature of the expert class as being hopelessly flawed corrupt, too. Or and also detached from from the necessary functions in the end, the sort of the The incentive and rewards process that creates expert classes
So we ve come to a place where there sort of worthless and they need to be got rid of this sort of the theme to a book by a war college. Professor Tom, come recently, just came out actually called the death of expertise in which we society. The thesis is we, as a society have begun to prize amateurism and the sort of Rousseau invasion, of noble nobleness that has conferred upon somebody who's. Just don't you know. A babe in the woods is very much you know a native and there he argues that this is sort of the cause of our problem nah, not the earth the result of our problem so worm. Whether what do we think about that is is, is the death of expertise, the cause of our current condition or as a result of our current condition, Abe. Well, I've read terminals books. What I don't wanna misrepresented argument if at all, but I think,
What we're looking at is the sort of is that the problem of the claim of expertise, I think, is- is sort of. What's a part of its former party are spent in in the political realm b b B. Basic competency problem is coupled with this nothing, nothing seems to be in good hands. Yet we're being told by the same class of people that everything actually is in good hands. You your You don't understand, we ve got discovered. I think that's, that's this. That's the salt in the wound that that's what really rankles, thinking about my grandparents who were by immigrants my father's parents, who were both born in Galicia came to this country, as as teenagers lived in this country for sixty seventy years before their deaths, but never lost their accents. Working class people lived in Brooklyn, very unassuming, quite timid and
The notion that people there presumption was that they didn't know enough. Question whether the people who were in charge, knew what they were doing maybe just simply presume that have man of high standing and high now. Position was somebody who deserve to have that position than you listen to me. You could disagree with them. I suppose the man. You could think that he was wrong about thing. Certainly, he was a formidable person and he knew more than you did, and the press and you know, our leaders knew more than we did, and so therefore, you just serve took on faith they when they said the country was an ex condition or needed. Why thing that they were telling you the truth? That was you know they that vague- we're came to their adulthood and that in the nineteen twenties- and they lived through the in my grandmother- should the ninety nine these and it would not have occurred Her to presume that this
grew of commerce, for example, wasn't a man of August Gust standing if Shiva knew who he was or if she was ever tat know who he was. That would be her presumption and now I think, people. Of the same order of life as my grandparents, come at this from exactly the opposite conclusion. They now trust institutions to such a degree that they do not believe as a matter of course, that what they are being told is true. By leaders they'll believe it if they We with other aspects of them because they those views dovetail with their own, but they will not think if they are conservative, that Barack Obama's telling them truth or knows more than they do or is operating on the basis of greater degree of information. And similarly they were, somebody in an opposite position, wouldn't believe that about George W Bush or what
leave that about Donald Trump that we are in a position in which the general attitude of, Ordinary Americans is that their leaders are full of in some sense or other there's nothing unhealthy about that, I'm not saying it's unhealthy well, but there is something unhealthy about a ditch distrust of general expertise of the idea that anyone's truth is different from their own. The notion that is damaging stop shop steward knows more about about cutting steel and shaping ten than a c p macro level again agro level that the result of that this is in effect, where we have now a distrust of comparative advantage, where somehow design more work were sort of lurching towards this put this: let's ice hockey was so let's let you go into this because you are now you're now making reference to think so comparative advantages. The is the theory to explain,
If you don't know a little bit of advantages, you shouldn't be making economic policy were ok, but Camaro vantages is that is the essential description of the the forces of world free trade, which is to say that countries should an do as a matter of general proposition will it is better, not morally, better but economically, more efficient for countries to if if your country has a higher wage, textiles than a country with a lower wage and textiles. It makes sense for you to buy your textiles from the country with our wages and import them into your country than to attempt to pay higher wages and put up tariff walls and sell the goods at a higher price in your own country. Because- it's an efficient and be it won't
work anyway, because the other goods will still somehow managed to sneak again. Are you or people will travel abroad to buy them? And so, in the end I mean why you're not focusing on the thing you do really right. So in american case in the case of the interesting thing, is that the argument for the four comparative advantages, the way that Paul Krugman of New York Times one his Nobel prize. Economics and he now, of course, doesn't believe in it at all as far as one can tell since it, since it dovetails against his radical political views, but but I think that the expertise. There are two issues here, so the expert, I believe. Based on the articles, he wrote that the book is based on the Tom Nicholson. Talking about is expert let's say on the history of foreign policy or the history of trader, the history by economics in which people who have a greater grounding in a greater sense of you, know cautionary examples of what can go wrong and what has gone right and using history and using
years of study as a basis for going forward policy that those people A kind of expertise is no longer given credit whatsoever did not only that it's not being given credit by the trumpet illustration which, for example, cares not a whit about whether anybody who works in the White House has had a moment's experience in the executive branch and knows how to navigate it efficiently, so that it has a it's a comparative advantage of its own way to the colleagues will branches of government the legislative and judicial, such that a person competent to write an executive order that dovetails with Donald. Comes wishes. Unrest energy policy and to call a halt. Two it from these seven nations that you might want somebody with some expertise in the writing of executive orders and making sure that they are constitutional rather handing the job too.
Thirty one year old, right wing firebrand, who knows nothing except how to promote stories and talk trash on trade. But it strikes me that there is a tremendous paradox at work here, because, while while we're finding this gross incompetence everywhere at high levels, it seems to me at this time, this culture of credentials has risen up over. Past decades, right where, where where everyone is, if you have, if you dont, have some graduate degree, you might as well not have gone to college at all. Where there's a there is a major and a specialty for Bree, conceivable job or placement in the western world NL departments and are now you know these vast, vending machines, and yet all this the others, bureaucracy has produced what let doesn't seamen. Compatible to me all I mean as these credentials as credential ISM has
compare amount credentials, have increased and ubiquity that their value is deep. Brian well, in a longer trust, will look so, I think everybody understands a deep sense of institutional decline that overtones overtaken America. The last half century starts, in effect with Vietnam WAR that we had five hundred thousand men under arms fighting in a faraway country in which you know we had massive advantages, every possible way and could not feed the enemy? Did not have a plan to DVD Amy lied about how we were flung how're handling it. You know that military wasn't as a charming master or new national security, Visor wrote so brilliantly in his book dereliction of duty. The military wasn't telling the politicians the things the politicians need to here to make good political decisions. The pouch lie to themselves. They lied to the voters You know they essentially send people into up and to us death mill, with no sense that there was you know anything except the goal. But the goal was not.
Really achievable, and so that was a generational crisis in which you know fifty eight some people lost their lives and a hundred thousand were injured and all these in a bend, and it was a hotel Oh, it was just the horrendous waste than if you go. Forward. We have if you start from that as a base, you then go to you know people saying that, though the Iraq war was gonna, be easy greatest liberators, and we know we'd be done in five minutes and mission accomplished and and Of course, all this sort of Obama. Eight happy talk about recovery summer and how we are going to be able to simultaneously spend less and cover more people with a care and and and all this use of expertise, you know as well as a polluter.
Tool to silence the opposition. You know where they say things like any one who is sceptical about global warming is told ninety seven percent of all climates, I thus believe in it. So who are you to say that all the evidence that you can must against. It is that's just that's it? That's the appeal to authority, fallacy in your site of sorting sort of saying that now we suffer through the opposite is like an appeal to write. Knoweth We're not death speaks to what Abe said that you responded to, which is that, if there's so much credential ism, and then you like third rate people claiming that credentials are important at some point when people say add, that's just a load of hooey, it's very hard to argue that point. Look any Ferguson and our pages in the pages, the weekly standard mother places has been running for years about social side, the indue block ability of social science experiments right so every day we get some study that says that forty seven percent of people do this at people.
Have this and they go through this and they have this anxiety and they have that. It turns out that almost all of this is nonsense. It's all These are all studies that are not duplicate bull and when people attempt to duplicate them, sixty five to seventy percent of them turn out to be in duplicate apple, which means it you're still reporting daily and alien daily and studies after say that are based nonsense? Social science, nonsense, and some of it supports, your biases and sounded attacks or biases and support somebody else's biases and, at some point truth will out right. This is some weird serious point that trump You know serve landed around when he complained about political correctness, which is so up. Yelling at me, stop using false data to make an arm meant, because I have no reason to trust that anything you're saying is true and your citing facts that
I dont know are true and by the way, this also plays into the Betsy divorced nomination right, what could she not be an expert in in on and on my terms that, though, the them by the other occasions that I claim easy irregular recognise that this time is that somehow she did. She wasn't aware of some very critical laws governing education policy in that never occurred to education was the expert said. Perhaps this person who had spent a quarter century of her life studying this issue couldn't be informed in every aspect of it? Maybe just maybe there's too many aspects of it, right, rather too many laws governing it or or be at work where they were the ins and outs theirs. The ins and outs of this legislation are just nonsense intended to power the credential. Old at the expense of people who might have greater common sense? Is that, of course, the other war here, which is part The purpose of credentials thing is
overcome people who say common sense says that you can't, then the cost curve of health care and cover thirty million people. And then you say: ah no, I'm sorry, because you don't understand the formula. In fact, We can do everything with the same five dollars and you couldn't keep your doctor and then the question is: are those people who do that are they line to themselves? Is Barack Obama were, but you the wind to themselves, or did they did They use false information on purpose as property, destiny, and that was why it was such an issue with Obamacare when Jonathan, when those tapes surfaced of jobs. Then Gruber the healthcare exports saying we're lying to people ha ha ha we're doing. This on purpose were lying to people, because we know they'll never accept what worse
what were giving them until unless we get less, we put cherries on top of it and make them think that something other than what it's going to be. The one thing we have not discussed is an iota. You can separate from this issue is the than the modern media environment that x x and creates an echo chamber for these sort of way, is the idea that same five dollars can cover ever thing, is magnified and echoed by box and one blogging given legitimacy in cachet and the same, happens on the right. I mean all the sudden were being told by people like former how Speaker John Banner, and you can't really repeal Obamacare leader veto the opposite, a whole bunch of different times- and it was echoed you know incessantly by people on the right who had a whole bunch legitimacy and a lot of data at their hands in their own ideas about policy, but guess what we just kind of aid all that stuff up and the sort of stuff- I think, those robbing the american public over of faith, in their ok, but we have to create an shoulder writer. So we have
The things going on. We have the question of credentials and then we have the question of components, but I shall give you an example of the competence issued the election day and twenty twelve If you remember, two different things happened that day, one was that the Romney, campaign had a get out. The votes tablet. Computer system that supposed to help them make sure that they could turn the vote out on election day. That crashed, because it now probably feel tested, because they were too nervous, it would get hacked and they never, and so no one knew what was going on, and so that was the first bid of evidence that the Romany campaign was simply not gonna function effect. That day and the other was the Obama campaign was generating vote. In counties at number let no one had ever seen before there were these small counties in Florida where seventy five hundred more votes were words turning up for Democrats, because they're good at the vote system was so sophisticated and they d and so
It was a war of competence that the story of the twelve election was at Obama, It had the supremely competent campaign that was so good that he could lose four million votes office nineteen office. Two thousand and eight total at nonetheless win the comfortable victory, even though didn't like him and people liked him a lot less and people were on Susie asked a voting form. They could still pull them to the polls twenty. Sixteen the same people ran the Clinton campaign and turned out guess what that may be. All of that was nonsense. Maybe it wasn't that it was just all technical. Competence and they were so good at it. Maybe Romney lost because he didn't make the argument. Well enough and in a bomb it did and Clinton lost into those nay, because she didn't make the case to the right people and two thousand sixteen and Trump did The M trumps campaign was clearly not all that competent, didn't know what it was doing, despite all this stuff you're now reading about its data, it's big data,
Bridge analytical how they're gonna run everything with their psychological ass profiling. Well, where they were running everything so brilliantly that they thought they lost the election until they were told that they had won the election at six p m on elections. Hey Kelly, Conway went on television and start attacking other people in the campaign for having lost the elections. So you know Previous, that's right! Her down wanted rights. Previous I guess at enough there still for noticing her enough support in Wisconsin, which they already lost. That's right! So, according to her rights, how so I'm just saying like so nobody knows the other way loading. The ogre one of your tweets are important, but miss out clearly the the best advice in the twenty first century now is: don't go to sleep early, whether its but its election night or the Superbowl or Osbourne I'd, because no one knows what's going on, but I want it. But you know I,
On a return to this point about Oscar night for a second, because of course, it's ridiculous and who cares whether, while when be moonlighted If one light, one moonlight didn't win, because people like that, more I'm sure by so many more people, sallow and of Hollywood, that some will make that people were voting for moonlight firm, obvious reasons other than its quality. Is my gas because of what it stood for, rather than whether they thought it was a better movie them law land, but nonetheless, so who cares? Nobody cares? the issue is the price Waterhouse Coopers, which is a major you know, accounting firm in the world, just humiliated itself, it's been doing this for eighty some odd years. It does it for free, as I understand it, nor to get the publicity from them Cal used to be price. Waterhouse the accounts from price Waterhouse who, at the secret tally they are the only people who knew one and they have the envelopes. And all this I mean.
You know people would like jump out windows for doing from four for the shame of having done something like this and prevent it wouldn't have happened before because this, because the culture, Simply couldn't have allowed it to her but now maybe- but we don't know- is maybe it's happened before, and the idea of exposing the error was so horrifying that no one exposed the error in others always been a rumour that Marisa Toma didn't when the Oscar for my cousin Vinnie that that Jack palates read her name. It was the last name on the list of best supporting actress nominees and The shadow has followed her forever. No one's ever really known the truth, and they wouldn't have corrected it, because it would have called the institution of the Oscars and their probity into question and so better to protect the institution. But no
one protects any institutions any more, but she had in know that. But but you know that this also speaks to another problem with with widespread and competence, which is it it produces paranoia and consumers the very soul, of course, that's the whole point that you think I'm going to be law lamb. True, third, so we're gonna say that if one, but that they can be really wanted moonlight to win because of its efforts to defeat the Oscars so white, so they produce two envelopes and then they do nothing they pulled. Some Scamander, there's gonna be some theory about this and look at selection, so here something we within. We're gonna talk about so that the Democratic National Committee election this weekend pick. Tom presses the as the chairman of the Party and Keith Ellison as the as the vice chair, so apparently the prey. For entry in this race was that you basic We everybody had to say that the two thousand and extreme election was falsely, decided
it was Paris said it Ellison set at every person on the stage said they want increase when inquiries into Russia meddling they want increasing to this end and that that this was you don't let em Europe impeachment already by Blake prior fact. So what we have there, if you think about it, is democratic party. Now so unwilling to accept the results of the the election, that they are willing to believe in a massive conspiracy theory suggesting the wild competence of the russian government, which you know, can even feed its people and
You know who are dying of alcoholism is astounding rates, rather than simply say. Ok, we lost. Let's try to figure out how to rebuild a super. Cynical reading of this is that nobody on that stage believes that they think that the democratic base believes that, or at least they think that the democratic basis energized enough to go out and vote in donate and everything they need to do by the idea that Donald Trump as an illegitimate. President unless they they can energized. So we have so. We now have that's even more cynical, so we now have three three consecutive president's again: let's talk about institutional decline here three consecutive, accidents that large numbers of people believe were elected, a legitimately George. The Bush, because the Florida, The count was a legitimate or the original election did the bulb butterfly ballot and Palm Beach County mended people voted for TAT Buchanan, who wouldn't about a rapid Canon law and thus yet that then
the voting machines were were fixed, then they optical and though to hang in Chad and out. So that's so There were people like Paul Krugman who said I will not call George W Bush president because he's not my president, then you have Obama, wins this giant victory, whereas I could suddenly it's he's not. Didn't president. He wasn't born here. Where's his birth certificate, the highs entire life was a manchurian candidate conspiracy. And now you have Donald Trump poohed, didn't win the presidency because he was elected by blood, the report and so We know no longer trust that the peoples were we how it is now and an axiom of american politics that the person who is the president is illegitimate. It isn't action, because it had Hilary one. We know that that from peons would have said it was. It was fixed, absolutely three million and they are at their sight. She got three million illegal via the internet, gave greater Viner say announce his glance at her. That heard that her Marge and, of course we have its,
I fear that Hilary didn't winds and she won the popular vote until the Electoral College, one of features of our constitution is an illegitimate attack. Our democracy. So so We have a warm competence and we have a war on legitimacy and there they they run handed him. The question is whether the lead, detention that all these lead institutions, not just government. I mean the catholic church has gone. Largest charity in the country and the American Red Cross had people. Three though all it does is clear. You know mediating, institutions of all kinds, the United Way, people defend a straight it because of because of scandals largest charity in the country and the American Red Cross, had people three, though all it does is collect blood in the wonderful things at its bad and, and you know, did
Mortensen school in Afghanistan is a fake, and all these you know all these things are just done for the goodness of people's harder, and so the good. The question you have to ask yourself is Are we heading into a time when, okay, so life, has been terrible for according term you know extraordinary dom, namely article in the March commentary by ever sat or military. For centuries, life has gone downhill for the: U S of Working class, even Lord middle class. You know why to the United States for the last fifteen to twenty years, Well, if all of our lead institutions are themselves now incompetence, so price, Waterhouse Coopers as incompetent Our leading universities are now turning vastly incompetent and educating people and throwing professors out for no good reason. Having fits and scenes, I'm campuses that are preposterous.
So how do we know that this contagion, that Charles Murray and others have said, look the upper the upper the upper where they're going to be great? They make a lot of money and they make. Although the you know all the income, inequality means they're all profiting in there. Existences are fine, but that everybody else is going to suffer will maybe some of this as it is and is an indication that that you now decline. Is totally mystic that you can't contain, It's too, you know just one silent majority population, because if you can't be sure that personal works or price Waterhouse doesn't hand the right envelope to warn baby. You can be sure that Anything is going to work right that your Iphone is going to work right, that your phone's going to work right, that your cable is going to work right, that your company is going to work right. Nothing on such a reminded on the subject of institutional decline and the crisis of confidence and sort are reminded of the the republican primary site
in which a lot of us put a whole lot of empty faith in the idea that institutions like the conservative movement and the Republican Party with assert themselves and somehow thwart the idea that somebody who eventually became the present the United States, who didn't represent any other values initially. Would overtake these these institutions and these organizations and there the cavalry, just, never arrived, and it was ass, though the institutions themselves were sort of had a proper asserting their own dominance, even if that meant thwarting the will of an of a man. Already that or even eventually majority that they believed to not have their best interests in mind, and you go. You fought, you know, sort of on a macro level writ large. You know you're seeing the idea that these institutions no longer believe in their own missions. There is certainly in their own competency of the river, the academy awards would have just stifled the eye that they made a mistake at that point too, to a one point, you know shielding institution from criticism that deserving or otherwise and unknown Where does you know what does that say?
institutions will, I think you know all this makes the steady hand argument a bit of a dead letter, because, if you say look, we want we want some in charge of any the country. But if anything who can keep things on course whose trustworthy we know. You know nothing too radical happened, but the push back to that as well that's all it's an illusion there. This is this. Is this? Is it we want to sound a steady course of incompetence, and I'm here up he's right after the blog that, hopefully will get publish, will see. Everybody in this room can decide, but you had this pole over the the weekends from Wall Street Journal that showed that. People are very optimistic, no more optimistic than they have been in a long time that sixty percent of people think the economy is going to keep growing. That's forty one percent say that this trajectory earth there
optimistic enough in the directory, the country, forty one percent of plurality thank the economy is going to keep growing and of them. Seventy three percent think Donald Trump is going to be the reason for its its growth. Finally, fifty two percent of the country for the first time since two thousand to a majority, say that no longer does the government and the current economic systems that run this country has forgotten about them. They are now back a part of the system. They have faith in earnest. Sink strikes me as really dangerous, because nothing chain Nothing's, nothing we're going to one thing: a strange that there has been a gigantic stock market rally. So if you have a foreign k, look at your foreign came numbers there up twenty two percent, since no member of the people who are saying this who say that the economy is forgotten about me in the pollyanna. The whole system is forgotten about me. You are not looking at the DOW Jones Industrial, I'm not sure. That's true hundred and forty million people have money of our other. What goes up, come down ball markets and the business like will return, although is not coming to Morrow at some point, these people?
gonna look around and they will be disappointed workers their expectations are such they cannot be met, but confidence in optimum Ms also can be a good thing, you. Even it is a good and right. I know, but I'm central, even If it's illusory dickens, it can spur action. I mean it what striking is about that Paul. Is that so, sickly. Everybody who voted for Trump right, that's forty! Six percent rivers was appall of adults, not have registered voters, so we don't know. The full was? I didn't really get a chance to look at the demographic breakdown and weather was friendly, urge trump than other. You know the self includes non voters explicitly read, but I'd say, but you know how white was at how this, but we can presume that everyone who voted for Trump is not turning on Trump and that some p Oh, who didn't vote for tramper thinking I mean
things are, you know, maybe like says, is fighting for us or some just some small percentage of people who didn't vote forum or wooden devoted form. Our thinking that- and you know nobody would question, is of a word that it was he in other words, it's been a month and you know we're not at war and he has made out of mistakes, but they are not following it gradually with the way we are, there are what the hell's going on it for all they front for what a lot of them think is he's like doing something about TAT, resume, with the executive order and he's doing something about immigration, which a lot of them don't like, and The media doesn't like him and they don't care about that. So they so we wouldn't could read too much into this
it's. Not our honeymoon cause like his numbers, are in the sixtys but there, but in his proliferating in this policy at forty four minutes, not at fifty four, it's at forty four, that's why they focus on his particular base. Voters is self bizarre as not dissimilar from what we experienced in two thousand and nine, when the hope and change sentiment was its own sort of unique species that needed forensic analysis and vivisection and where we're going to that same thing right now, but it doesn't take long for that sentiment to wear off and the written. No, you look back under the profiles of the hope and change. Voters are not not happy. There are very dispiriting and how many times can you be dispirited? How many times can you have hope and faith and have it dashed before you either to now entirely or look to other option? Ok, so, let's, let's, let's, let's break this!
down between the radical differences between Obama and what hope and change would mean for an o bomber. Friendly person and hope and change of made for a Trump friendly person. So for no Obama, friendly person, hope and change would mean. You shall conciliation, we elected the first black present. I feel really good about back as it means society is changing and he's gonna do all these good things and Bush was such a screw up and are we really going to do something to stimulate the economy and rebuild things and make things better, and maybe we'll do something about health care on all of that, and the Trump friendly voter is Finally, someone's come in to give those guys hell and they all Staying in their terrible and he's gonna cut he's come in to give them how and he wants to help. People like me- and you know sir
but he finally cares about somebody like me because for all Ella we hear about as minorities and end end and gay people at this, and that no one ever talks about people like me, and so finally, he's talking about people, These are two very differ. Populations as well. I can tell, and they are equally susceptible. I think you're right to the two extreme disappointment when what care he. Why am want to show to people like him, giving necessarily translate unless There is an economic bullets event diagram. These are two completely isolated population, but are there overlap their social affairs? I dont think their substantial overlap. There's some overlap. There is not that much overlap its assembly, but in other words, you know Trump offers hope to the populist and obey am I offered a hope to the collectivist or to be you out
the person who believed that you know that America's best day, o America's promise. We is a multi cultural future of you know, of of racial comedy and that is not Trump is you now. Finally, somebody's gonna. Stick it to those guys in Washington and you know and give me some stuff that I didn't get before but also know. Why do you say that the hope and changes are so distraught, but we now have their district but trumpet, but at the end of a bomb, a second term, there. There are some from whom you here he should have gone far. He I was hoping for more or that you should have gone further than he did but I think mostly there. They actually consider it to have lived through like of this one, full, noble president there's annex on both sides, you can add an winnie you're, focusing on the anecdotal evidence. This person is disappointed. This person is not. This person remained super happy with
Obama and his error. I mean your beer you're gonna get a distorted picture. If you look at the fact that minority turn out was down in twenty sixteen substantially that Hillary Clinton failed to draw african american voters to the poles by the tuna ten points you had african american voters in states like Michigan the declined to turn out, told me times over super happy with that and also broke up and was replaced by his polar opposite with promised to do everything he didn't want everything to undo everything we have on the presidency. Those are the effects of a mama's legacy, and by that you can judge him to have been a disappointment to his voters. Well, Exe the he left office, with a fifty six percent approval rating. So a lot of this is not. You know a lot of us. We have to look we're looking and I will too close to the microscope and we're going to need to pull back and look at this in a in a grander way over time when we really get a sense of how the american people are going to view their conditions in a day
macro sense, of course, of trumpets still leave. You always have to point out to be fair trumped up Forty six percent of the vote you didn't get. Obama got fifty one percent and fifty three and a half per cent- and you know the to pray this elections. He got forty six Hilary got. Forty eight he got sixties votes. Hilary got sixty five million, sixty six million votes. I mean that's just the fact of the matter. Still a minority president. The main thing for him, that, unlike other minority presents, let's say he is not reaching out that is his style. He is polarizing not reaching out, and so the proof of the pudding for him we entirely in terms of performance. The economy I substantially in a way that spreads its benefits Down the socio get spread down, but I believe that they cut that they actually affect people down there. Socio economic ladder than he will benefit, and if they don't, he
I'll, be in the Esdras condition- and this is the point of my post them and also dovetails with whatever that said, I mean we're looking at, we don't have any rush recessionary. Trends on the on indicators we have manufacturing is up. Consumer goods are our up. Consumer confidence is up. Food is, is up unemployment rate officially is under five percent. The stock market is rallying GDP. Growth is a name it, but it's growing on in. In those terms of those indices, things are good. And then you have ever set her rights while the indexes, in their measuring the wrong things. What we have is. It is an economy that is marked by a labour participation rate. That is something in the seventy people are out of work and and are looking for work there drugging themselves, incomes, poorly distributed, etc so forth. So you ve got what looks to be less of an economic crisis and more of a moral crisis, and how on earth can Donald Trump address that he can?
that's right precisely zone. If they lean into this idea that I and we are the ones we have been waiting for our Obama, he riding himself up or failure. But that's right except except for the fact that in emerald terms. He will either perform well. Are you won't perform? Well, I mean the thing about. Obama was a it all depends on how you want to look at it Obama bomb. I haven't incredibly productive. First, sixty she passed for gigantic world historic, Pieces of legislation that got that ended up getting him. You know gig debt, crafts thrown out of the house and ended up getting Democrats? I think three years really in fact thrown out of the Senate for years later, but did not get him kicked out of all That's because enough people thought that he had done a good enough job and that Romney wasn't somebody that they wanted to be president. They daddy, daddy stuff with them, and yet he was the least productive president.
The most productive president that we ve ever seen since Roosevelt and the first sixteen months and the least productive president. In the last seven years of his presidency, I mean somebody who literally got nothing done at all whatsoever, except things that did not have to pass rational, muster like the IRAN deal. He got nothing done trump. Does not have the luxury of getting nothing done if he gets nothing done, particularly with a thousand assented that are republican and he doesn't get enough done What's he gonna say is gonna say who stopped them? How did this? How did that? He is? Will be the blame for everything he's got no cover the only let me that he has the media. I only enemy then set up as the media, not necessarily than we go back to the very beginning topic of our of our study here, which is elite crisis of confidence, the collapse of institutions, a crisis
competence among our officials and members of the of elite society, and all of that can and will frankly, in my opinion, be used by Donald Trump to shift blame from his own failures in the event that they occur. And it will be done so pretty cock convincingly, because these elite institutions will fight back. But you know that depends as it much depends, as it did in the case of Obama, on these strengthen endurance of the cult of personality I mean they're. There are once once you are invested in an individual you you, you will not express buyers remorse, no matter what you can you can always find someone to summon up someone who who tried to go in his way. Someone who do you didn't, let him do great things that he was capable of doing otherwise right, but the other. The other problem trump faces, is that here sold himself as the guy who could fix it.
Obama sold himself as the person who would end that Bush had started and would bring a new spirit to the country, a better spirit of brought optimistic spirit terms. The guy who said I alone can solve. And who's the guy. When I'm campaign trails and said I will make all your dreams come true, that's it On the one hand, he will be able to say the media, stop me or the swamp. Stop me or something like that. The other thing by the way is that Have various things going on this week right he's gonna announced some new, healthier the Obama CARE replacement plan to Morrow night. In his speech before Congress, apparently doing so, because the capital they'll Republicans uncouple Hill are now suddenly in their own crisis of confidence about what on earth. They can suggest that isn't gonna get them in trouble, voters eat oak since the the fear,
three of the repeal and replacement Obama CARE is popular, but now there terrified of dropping any provision, any feel good price. From Obama CARE, so Trump is gonna have to and you know what happens when President's proposed giant plans makes things they generally die. They drop dead, sometimes a taxpayer can come out of the White House, but very rarely in fact leave the most important tax the modern times, which was which was the Reagan tax cuts that was the camp Roth tax cuts plan that he adopted from Congress. What what plans have we seen come out of the white, in our group. Clinton, Zobeide Clinton CARE proposal that that died, the death with an he added Republika, yet a democratic house undemocratic and they like it. Let him have it now. That was because it was overly bureaucratic into left wing and two left wing for conservative Democrats.
But nonetheless I you know it's not good! That proposals flowed down from the white ass. They should be emerging organically from Congress and then and then Trump consign them with great fanfare. No Noah says it is of course eight mare that they're doing it. This way, it's crazy, there's, no consensus on the right about what to do and what they ought to be doing. First, as tax reform, because there's there is in full, consensus on tax reform. Paul right has as controversial provision the people in the Senate, don't like in the Obama either likes. You doesn't linked. Pending on who you listen to Trump doesn't like or listen to, but nonetheless, there is a general sense that you know we need to reform the corporate income tax. We need to delay. We do. We will need to provide some tax coming to people to help the economy. Echoing. And instead of going to take up the hardest thing instead of the with the easiest, and there are going to end up. You know:
a wash in a minor rather than getting themselves a quick and easy victory, which is, I think, not a very good sir about the competence and expertise of the house in the Senate. You now mean. Paul Ryan is speaker of the house is an incredibly impressive man. Well actually, procedurally, but you know he he basically becoming many chairman, at a time when they couldn't get legislation through and now is the speaker of the house and there are in trouble, drafting bills than that of the house. Can agree on and that the Senate will agree to in it's not clear that There is a huge amount of competence there and there is clearly very little competence and the White House, or in much of the administration but like them or not. I don't know how you can look at this and say that it's going well you're only saying it's going well, because you like him- and you don't want to say it's going badly- does also
very the illogical congress. More so than you'll, probably most congresses in the past, and even though we are in the midst of this sort are anti. The idiot logical period when it comes If you look at the White House in the Congress, is really very conservative Congress and young Congress, which probably make some more ideological so That's one of the reasons. I guess why we're having such problems coming to terms with some sort of a pragmatic solution to fix, sing or recording quit repealing in replacing nobody cares. That everybody has the radiological priors an that's why we can't do tax code reform by the way, because, if they didn't all the idiot logs and in the grassroots would have a very big problem with that. Well, so Trump is giving the speech Tuesday and is supposed to drop his new draft of the executive order on refugees from and and and visas from
seven majority muslim countries, as we say, will be another tempest or the will a sensible redrafted king cause a democratic explosion. I'm a crack and liberal explosion that will actually we're down to trumps benefit. If the order solve some of the problems that the previous order did not able to you think. Well, you know in keeping with our theme about, Competency. The administration has said that their there there there crossing other teasing, dotting other business because they wanted to be absolutely perfect. Another day they, since the idea that the doubt that was that was an engendered by by their by their last round, yeah. I think a successful executive order on immigration will drive the Democrats much crazier than intended,
successful wanted, but by all means because they they dig, they don't have the the ability to to yell about how it's illegal and sloppy and unconstitutional and and if it's in not those things in it. If it's just bad will they got preemptively sort of undermined by the Department of Homeland Security, for where somehow, a report that was not made for public consumption was leaked out an analysis of the candy, since that Donald Trump has drawn from administration says, is the justification for this ban indicating that only two of the seven countries that have been targeted are really good. Reliable, reliable indicators of possible terrorism, for example, one of their countries list ran is one of them. This is where we have introduced most of our is is to work to North America, I'm sorry, North Africa and the Middle EAST, and we ve been assimilating and introducing people from around this country for a very long time go to LOS Angeles you'll meet a couple,
whereas the other and indicators of states that also are indicators of terrorist exportation like Uzbekistan and Cuba, and places that we otherwise don't think of his terrorist exporters. He didn't make it analysts, others think sort of undermined the White House before it could get under way and by the way brought prompted communications people over it, it has to attack their own analysts, analysis and analysts and intelligence report prepares as insufficiently studious and taking taking account of all the information to which they could be. But they wanted to produce a partisan products made in the end. What ski here is that the technical attack on the on the so called so called muslim ban. It was just a matter of procedure, but the problem with it in the eyes of the people who really hated is the policy.
Not not it's, not difficulties and it's framing and constitutionality about what happens with people with green cards and what happens with people who are already in transit, and all of that that that was a it's. Not that that's a boy That that that's a secondary issue, they don't like the policy to begin with, and then we had an interesting voice this morning, basically going after the policy about was the voice out of nowhere of George W Bush, saying that the country needs to be welcoming to immigrants and an end in a big, I did when it comes to these things, and it is interesting to see Bush remained quiet through most of the Obama years and decide you know, maybe after being so viciously attacked by Trump during the course of the campaign that he was not necessarily gonna, feel him itself obliged to remain silent,
I don't know what help he's going to give it'll be some interesting to see whether the people who were vile them, so much are now suddenly going to find in him someone that they want to cite an admirer as we are recording this and I cannot independently verify. But I am getting at this badge that says rush limbo. Is being very critical of George W Bush, who is quoting quote establishment and is trying to undermine the president for his own personal politics, and I can see we are well there you go so you know we The the man who makes thirty million dollars a year speaking on the radio is accusing other people are being establishment. That's always funny to me, hey where the life that we live is a life in which in which, if you say Anything that does love comport with the interests of the people
like Trump, the first thing they do? Is they call you and a leader certain someone in the establishment, and I will I will cop to be in Cairo latest. As the editor of Commentary Magazine a magazine that has spent seventy two years, attempting to provide the best of intellectual analysis and probity in its cultural analysis, I invite join us at commentary magazine dot com for a few free weeds and then- I asked you to pay one thousand nine hundred and ninety five for digital subscription, two thousand nine hundred and ninety five for an all access subscription, including our beautiful mother monthly magazine in your mailbox so the week we'll go on and we will remain the leader out of touch snobbish and terrible In law and should have one John Paul hearts. The editor of commentary with nor
I've been on a green wild, keep the candle burning.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-26.