We decided to do our version of The Handmaid's Tale and try to imagine the world in 2019 from two perspectives: One in which Democrats fail to win the House of Representatives in November and the other in which Democrats win handily. What will they do in each case? What will Republicans do? Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the commentary magazine podcast today is Thursday August It's twenty eighteen, I'm John POD words. The editor of commentary, the seventy five year old, monthly of intellectual analysis, political, probably in cultural criticism from a conservative perspective, join us a commentary magazine dot com, if you free reads, then subscribed ninety ninety five for digital subscription, twenty nine. Ninety five for em all access subscription including a beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year. We are closing our September. She's right now harvests
you're right Abe. What are we have there? We got TAT Peter Fever and how brands on whether NATO can be saved. We have the first appearance in The pages commentary of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, an essay from for me, a memoir never before translated into English about his at his first days in the west, after his forced exile from the Soviet the nineteen seventy four Fred Kagan on successful around strategy right, remarkable essay about the film director more Bergmann whose Centenary were celebrating this year and by really terrific essay by Jonathan Foreman on the Labour Party, is Anti Semitism problem in in Britain Joseph helps line on what is
arm yourself on the nation state I'll stay long right Christine rose and on the on the rise of acceptable man, hatred in them in the area. In the the feminism anyway, it's to stir it's a very rich and very long, and you will be able to read it next week. That was a green while their senior editor high Abe. How John and no arrangement or associate right next to me Now I jump and source of worry is out today, so we ended the last podcast by saying we would take up on this pod cast the question of how the parties will react to unfavourable results in the twenty eighth eighteen election, or maybe the twenty twenty election, the two parties and in two different ways. Since we talked on Monday, we had mid term spare.
The election we have midterm primary and special election results in Ohio, Missouri Washington state. Those really the three Kansas and fair to say that the results portend a happy evening for Denmark that's on election day in November in an unhappy evening for Republicans the obvious one Noah was the is the still undecided race in the special election in the Ohio, 12th congressional district, which was a Trump plus eleven district in twenty sixteen and in which now, I think, one thousand four hundred votes now separate the Republican and the Democrat, thus indicating a essentially serve ten percent rise in democratic participation
Corresponding ten percent drop in support on the republican side guy there are more results from Tuesday deserve more attention, but this is a really interesting district for a lot of reasons in part, because it was play of how Donald Trump having new coalition a broader coalition and the Republican Party. This district has a plus seven PV, I d partisan voting index. The cook political report does indices and that's one amendment says the, and this is how parties in the country this is. This district is relative to the country which is zero, and so he Trump outperformed the partisan based I infer a Republican in this district as he draw drew in voters who don't traditionally vote Republican. The snapped back that we ve seen is what a lot of people thought going to happen. A lot of people like us who are afraid of what the post from Republican Party would would look like and how it would repulse, for example, the kind of voters and made up the tradition.
No base of the Republican Party like this districts, voters very educate way, more highly educated women degree holders in this district than is the national average slightly of average on the national above income, middle class, white, educated voters, to be suburban, Ex Urban used to be the republican base and a lot of them are fleeing, and so this is the fear, and if that is repeated across the board, of course, the swing is never uniform across the board. But if it were, then it would be a really really bad day for report hence in November some other races in to an on Tuesday. That were really important to judge how the national environment is going to look occurred in Washington, state where they have, this weird to party system were its its head of a primary. But it's not. Everybody gets the same pile of votes in the top two winners and tucked evoke energy. As to the general election and non partisan, secondly, republican, undemocratic and usually splits,
Republicans usually can outperform perform on the primary decks like a dream I run for lay out a form of the primary day and then accept him. A few cases underperform on election day were limited. Still, it's pretty much a red stay right, blue ballistics, Washington, sorry! So! Yes, we're too to Republic, in republican districts blocking on her name Herrera Herrera Herrera, something out there road more right is the big one she's the for thanking report in the house and she pulled out. Squeaker of Red Mary victory measure would have advanced anyway, but it was she. She beat the Democrat and this primary by four tenths of a point
which is a really really bad omen for her and we'll let the Republicans it it it. It really does suggest that she's not gonna make it in November, because because presumably the turn out in the November election will be more heavily democratic than the then the midterm, I'm gonna red one thing to you and let's try to translate this use me from Dave Waterman, who is a election analysed, so Democrats outperformed the cook political pv, I, by an average of eight percent in this cycles, nine how special elections where both parties appeared on the final ballot so pv. I is the President
in other words like what this means is that, based on the twenty sixth team results in nine, how special elections Democrats did eight percentage points better than they did in those districts in twenty sixteen, so that's not a portent of of a terrible November day. For Republicans, I don't know what is that number that that aggregation? So instead dwelling on this fact, that we are now seeing we'll meet on the bonds that do I've. Had a couple of people say to me that there is, there is not a member of Congress that anyone take seriously. Who does not now believe that the house is lost to Republicans in November. Of course, most people thought the trump wasn't gonna win, and twenty six in that's what people say. But of course there were there were: there was no
there there were, there were no pieces of data along the way other presidential elections happening along the way between twenty six data between twenty four teeming sixteen to help, show you what was going to happen another thing that, along with the fact that, since early twenty seventeen with specials, with off your elections, we ve had a pretty consistent swing across the board towards Democrats. The poles have been really really good this cycle, as in special they ve been dead. Generally in this Ohio special were basically, it was as you want. The last two poles one had the Republican up by one. The other pole had the them credit by one and the fact is it's a dead heat, so the polling, you know, inspect pulling two zero in its each pole. Has a margin of error of three point. Either way so even in areas which are really tough to pull a small universal voters, they close annually,
who's gonna come out. I am an August day, The election is meaningless. It's a joke of all this is the real listen elections entirely symbolic because they two reminded in November, the special literally since there may end up being a recount. It could be the case that by the time they certify a winner, That person will be sworn in and will serve for exactly six weeks before before the next elections. That will you heard, I'm saying I'm gonna go to Washington and help. The Donald Trump, That's like you're, not going anywhere to do anything. Basically, unless you go, can do this again and we don't know what the apparently the thought is that the November elections might modestly benefit the Republican,
Bothersome because turn out should be. Turnout was incredibly high in the democratic areas of the district and not so high and the republican areas, and since they know that they have to target those areas to get a few thousand more votes, they can probably do that effectively. So and whereas it'll be harder to get hot turnout higher than the Democrats in the Democrat areas them then happened on Tuesday night right. So so here's the story, so we were thinking weathers. We're talking about before we did. The last podcast was what would happen when this is over the consuming obsessional minus serve them. You know melodramatic person who likes to think melodramatic way about the future. What would happen if, after, everything that we ve, seen after everything, that's gonna on since November Thee, women's March, the you now the reaction to Charlottesville the reaction to pee
and the special lesson in Georgia, in which democratic seventeen points better than any than anybody that he should have done victories in the Alabama sent a race and in the Pennsylvania special action on the house, every house race, way closer. All of that that Democrats only twenty three seats take the house and that they come up short after all this. The money that's being raised, do candidates all the energy all the enthusiasm and they just can't get over the hill and they win. Maybe seventeen seats or sixteen seats and they don't get over the hill and what the mood is, what the feeling would be in democratic, liberal, leftist, Auntie Trump circles at the failure to secure this very specific political, now the results on Tuesday night suggests that this scenario that we're about to lay out is unlikely to have happened, but trumpet
after all, tweeting that there's gonna be a red wave so. Let's assume that he has a magical formula to somehow stave off this disaster and and though there may not be a red wave, he does managed to keep he in the rubble and smashed, keep their losses modest and to hold the house. So, in that poets put on our look into our crystal balls and say what what will the result be in mood and spirit terms among Democrats left US liberals and anti tempers who are all different there? Not they overlap, but they're, not all the same. People know ways well for evidence of my fantastical assertion, I will cite the collective, liberal and democratic response which did not,
We all that dramatically to the news that down from would get a second Supreme Court appointment. The reaction was apocalyptic. It was a joke. Even and heartfelt among the part of liberals that the country that they love and understand and cherish was going away and that the political process had failed them well in love and chairs of them in their that Irish that they, the country that they have in their heads, that conception of Amerika was disappearing, and that the words no recourse to them that they had no political alternative to air political mechanism to which they could appeal for redress. They were just out in the cold and that's that feeling would be magnified by orders of magnitude in the event that day. After all, this for true Donald Trump is and for what the real
lookin tsar and after all, that the the feeling that there and they will have generated enough turn out in the scenario to effect a really big political events, just not big enough. And they will say: okay. Well, the political process doesn't work for us anymore, gerrymandering has locked us out the Odor suppression has is keeping us from from impact in the political process. In a way that is commensurate with our with our numerical strength. Fox news Fox NEWS Sinclair right and the laws even Iraq's, don't forget the cokes there will be- and these are all going to be very convincing messages- and they would for many, they will be cause for despair and fatalism and dropping out of the political process.
But for others dropping out of the political process won't necessarily just be staying home in watching reality television. They will appeal to extraordinary measures to affect political outcomes. They will appear in the streets they will march in the streets. They will engage in civil disobedience, but there will be other elements. The anti fascist elements who will engage in violence, property, destruction, sabotage and possibly even physical violence in a man scale in an organised way, and we saw some of that in twenty. Sixteen. This isn't important point, because no What we we pose an article by you on this point about leftist violence in in the in the accompanying. The rise of trump in was its of of twenty. Sixteen NOS three, so twenty sixteen, I believe, a publisher, the actual article in the magazine August right, the July opposition. No you're right, yellow anyway. I'm about you know that
Little noted you now obviously every piece of coverage that was garnered, and in Charlottesville was was, deserved and I'm not complaining that there that was highlighted, but you did have outbreaks of anti right wing violence in particularly in California, very harsh violence that at which cops basically Turner. You know tat, to which the cops turn a blind eye, particularly cops were targeted. Cops are targeted, M cops, turn a blind eye when and of course, we have there been any Shapiro on campus and began Chicago. I credit when there is not one regarding. I think Donald Trump instigated this violence around this. Yet this rally that he hadn't Chicago that together the the counter demonstration. The counter violence, which was organised at the University of Chicago and in simple traded this event and targeted Trump supporters with violence, targeted police with violence,
that was a receive Illinois Chicago Circle by the way, I just want to specify that, because as it illiteracy, Chicago you, you couldn't get University or Chicago. Instead, you have enough in so that was repeated in events in age and a hell of a riot in California, in Arizona and elsewhere. There were events, which organised mobs targeted, Donald Trump supporters with actual violence, and it was little covered. And then, in the trump era we have seen these two identity, Marian groups, the pro the the anti fascist right and the all right. I ain't even left in me all right, coming to blows industry and we ve seen- and we saw a case again serve and someone on Harold
because it because of the nature of liberal media bias of the lunatic who shot up the republican softball team, who was driven to do so in part by or or his drive, was accompanied by intense consumption of left wing, Anti Trump media? I ain't republican media. I have to say that I am not at all convinced that democratic sick Tests in the mid terms will have her moderating effect or but calming effect on the activists left at all? I think they are, still deep these smarting from twenty. Sixteen. An maser of take on the mindset. That net. Now now the warden our work cut out for us now now now we have work to do we
would not with now get up a foothold in India in politics. We need to use it and I think So, if you look at the public in mid term success during the Obama years did this did this have em my reading effect. On the report on right wing activism, I think it a moderating effect on. Let's say the possibility of right wing violence on the streets that there was political action to be taken. That ethical, we're talking about. Is I'm not saying that the left wing go play? send him and they will do whatever they can in the way that they do it. It's a question of whether or not something will break that a damn will break that will leave that might lead to more to political violence being thinkable in this sense, which is that you say to yourself: we did everything we could raised all this money. We call these candidates and place. You know we voted. We held our nose and voted for people who are too
waiting for us cuz. They run the democratic line whatever and Trump still has the house and the Senate and he's not going to get impeached, he's not going to get removed and the Republicans are active. I can tackle in the media. Cant do anything and mothers gonna be useless and we gotta do something else and there's something else. Whenever that emotion rises, is always something that is only so many wrapping else's right. So you know, if you take the energy to the late sixties. You would have you know domestic terrorist groups forming on. We have this arise of socialism right. That's all. There were inspired by the rise of socialism and how people like socialism, because I don't know it's socialism is, but you know, maybe the taste for socialism will start getting mixed together with a taste for a rap revolutionary, romantic socialism of the change
Laura Maoist variety. That's so stimulated people and nineteen sixties and then you'll have army, recruiting stations being blown up, and town houses going up in flames and reddish electric, because people are making bombs That's things got her. Just that's worth exploring that the the evolutionary trajectory of how the Anti WAR movement split and became violent in the in the late nineteenth sixties. Really, nineteen seventys after sixty eight. What happened in sixty eight was real political engagement on the part of these same people, and they were all uniform. They were all engaging in in traditional political activity for their particular candidates and in the event that there was a democratic victory, even if it was a Humphrey victory, they would have
continued to be engaged in the political process because they were already there they had to buy in that part of the coalition and that's what I think we're going to see from the aid from from the the eighty trump movement. The anti Trump left, the extreme anti trump left in. Nineteen twenty twenty, because the presidential primaries get under way the day after the election is over and the neighbouring age they have a binding in the political process. They want to make sure that they are candidate emerges from that process and to be outside the political process would would deprive them of their. Opportunity. Now I has it if, if things go their way in November now, what happened to the weather on weather underground was that they lost the presidential election, and there was a big debate within the Anti WAR movement over how it should proceed. It wasn't, it wasn't sotto voce and it wasn't Slainte.
This happened right in front of our eyes, and we haven't really seen that enter that Inter Party debate on the left about extraordinary measures yet right. Well, there was there was also the terms and the situations were so different because we were at war and so the the extremes of the Anti WAR movement to demonstrate their hatred of the war and american Imperialism that supposedly generated the war, and all that literally went to the other side and became outright supporters of the regime that there were half a million men in Vietnam fighting and taken a vision that kind extremism happening, but right now or in the clean for gene for its rapid there? There is no there. There is no net there. There are no large national traumas going on at the time that all this is happening right, there's no, their necessity.
We don't have the assassinations of our F K, Martin Luther King Jr, hard upon each other in two and a half months. We don't have the burning and also the burning of eleven cities in response to the king assassination. We don't have them. You know no riot in Chicago seven riot in in grand Park around the demo. At a convention. We don't have large scale american unrest. However, we could in theory, have it at some point, because the logic in my view- and I think you should maybe I'll ask you to extrapolate the logic of the anti Trump position- is if he is not stopped and if the republican apologists end, you know, enablers are not stopped. The country and the world are going to be ruined.
And when the country in the world are gonna, be ruined. That's when you start in the well, they did Stop Hitler Reichstag fire. You know they viewed a what we would you go back time and assassinate Hitler. If you could, you know anywhere then again passed her mothers poem. All of that Oh, I wanted, I won't pay their pointed when at sea we want one more point to your point how certain certain things are not having happening. Currently that would contribute to violence is a point you may borgian. Also, there are not the cause current in real time, far and left revolutionaries committing acts of violence on which to model themselves on which American lets us can model themselves at the time as there was in the sixties, that's another element but yeah. I agree. I agree that we take in discussing this. We take this sort of long, historical view longest or that of his love of history.
And when we look at what elements are in place. What elements are missing? The sun The people were actually talking about the people on the left. Now they don't think that the country that the states have ever been higher They are not comparing this too too more problematic areas where the they think this is everything's. Ok, on the other, and so I think a certain amount of no lack of perspective is necessary if you're gonna be a militant and any kind right. That's right yet, and that is in play. They have that lack of respect. I mean I don't want to defend the weather men and ass, the ass at all that they were by you know among the most monstrous creations of veto. Work to the olive this country has ever produced
but you know what they were living at a time in which America we think that America's divided it so divided and we're so partisan, leave. Look at this and these districts and there's people can talk to each other. I mean you had you know you literally had America, you had the most advanced. Form of american domestic terrorism. This country ever saw there was something like one thousand five hundred bombings in domino three or four years time, and you had an entire doctrine on the respectable liberal left. It said that America was a was an evil country and that the people who traditionalist in the United States who are not part of the revolutionary movements were bad. They were, they were hard hat monsters who you know who were blocking all
I am of progress and this assault that was staged on them and on you know, the military and police. Some on on you know on the uniforms. The guard us is rendered Kipling, call them, was was really extreme and we ve seen bits and pieces of it, but nothing nothing on that score, However, like us, hey, I don't think it's Unthinkable, I'm in the rhetoric is very much the same, even if the realities not and so at some point, the reality could be brought up to match the rhetoric and algae doubt to go to the other side if I could eat out. So we have this. America's awful and Trump is horrible when everything is terrible and all of that right and is the general. We jump down the lash, oh but Sir John, the newly minted Norton.
Opinion writer who, whose entire corpus of opinion on Twitter is about how, horrible, the country that has made her such a smashing successes, which is, I think, a pretty typical thing But then you know we have like Lord Ingram on Fox last night, saying, quote the Erica. We know and love doesn't exist anymore. Massive demographic changes have been foisted. The american people, and they are changes that none of us ever voted for and most of us don't like this is related to both illegal and legal immigration, meaning that America
is being changed for the worse by the fact that people immigrate to this country, including Lord Ingram, own three children. By the way in case, you want to vomit right in front of yourself, women attacking legal and illegal immigrants who is who, as imported three from another country from other countries, to enjoy the benefits and glories of being an hurricane that she wishes deny to everybody else who is in her none the less. I think we have this conditional rhetoric about the United States now on all sides right, so the right Trump did it himself. He said the selections rigged and the whole country is gonna, be you know, if there are, democracies can be ruined. If item become president, because it means we elections, rigged and death That's not have their own line about this, which is that gerrymandering voters, suppression line right, which is
It's all rigged, gerrymandering wins it for the Republicans voter suppression wasted for the Republicans. Now the Republicans are going to have all these judges who were going to rig it. So everyone's going to say that America is an unjust, unfair and terrible place, and that is a recipe for social disaster. Maybe not now believe, there's also the element on the left of of arguing the bet. There's gonna be this there were there. Is this trumpeting authoritarianism? That's going to break up our Democratic republic xray? Then that's, you know, there's a rash of books, all about this now run out soon, and that again, I think, gives implicit permission for extra legal action to fight authoritarianism, the joke, of course, is that the all the passion on that score has always been on the right right, like gotta have guns what what's? The main reason you gotta have done is to protect yourself against an increase.
Turn tyrannical government. What is and what is the common left us arguing about that? All please no one's over there than theirs and we're not getting any tyrants tell her throne, worse so yeah that was fun as long as that lasted getting me so ok have will, but will by the way. So having said this year, then I mean our maybe wanted to wait on this question, but I do wish we need to they are either way. What to the right right in life ok, before we do that? I want to tell you guys about Linden Club for decades. Cards have been telling us buy it now and pay for it later with interest, despite your best intentions, that in can get out of control fast. With lemon club you can consolidate you're, dead or pair of credit cards with one fixed monthly payment. Since two as in seven lemon club is help millions of people regain control of their finances with affordable, fixed rate, personal loans, no trips to a bank, no high interest, credit card, just gotTa Lenin, clubbed outcome
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too enthusiastic to absolute is to do it nationalist. I think I think we're gonna see me. Or of all that, I think the blame is going to be on candidate were insufficiently trompe and on the media and on all the usual suspects. Do it it's going to be more of that can be turbo charged warrant the same the biggest wildcard, I guess is probably then I guess I think we should get into your column, John from the post, which made so many waves is sound, the extent to which Republicans believe led to believe or are convinced of the legitimacy of the results and the extent to which that has the opposite and equal effect on the republican right. The really unhinged steeped in
in like minded media aspects of the programme is a very small second, whether there was a just as an aside to get everybody on the same page, there was an interesting study performed by sponsored by the guys over the monkey cage Blog, which is now on Washington Post in the survey and the study of Donald Trump among Republicans and top lines, is essentially the big headline is that Donald Trump support among people who think that he's yours here? The Donald Trump is more popular than Reagan. Women, republicans- and that is true for us ignorant of the strong republican affiliated voter, who makes up sixteen percent of the likely voters in twenty eighteen. According to this
among another. The broader segment of Republicans down from has broad support, six. Seventy three percent support, but he is by no means more popular than Reagan, and that is the broadest segment of the Republican Party, not the fanatical elements who are willing to excuse every of every single thing. Now trumps hazard does that's their public. It's the segment of the Republican Party, who is convinced that he represents a bulwark against throw liberalism against democratic policies that he is a necessary evil and that all other evils can be justified by that necessity. But you know also that this whole term Reagan thing just two Continue on this tangent is so ludicrous beak as the nature of the republican coalition was very different in in the nineteen eighties, and there was still a
body of opinion in the republican Party that could be defined as liberal Republican that did not particularly like Ray. I didn't. I didn't want him to be president and didn't fall in line in trompe manner, really until the Ladys and certainly a mighty, if you remember analogy eyes. The first two years of Reagan's presidency Reagan whew presided over a very serious recession that and that breaking the back of the employees Mary Spiral, was very important to the to the recovery that followed. But you know, unlike September, ninety. Maybe eighty two Reagan was not popular and and Republicans were hammered in the mid term elections in twenty eighteen end. Up again, I say the pie Reagan was Reagan's. Election was not the result of wild supply, words. He don't win. Forty states in in nineteen
any because he had wild republican support, but he forty states and ninety, maybe because he had while democratic support. Remember he one fifty percent of the vote in nineteen eighty one republican Party- was half the size of the democratic Party. If you ask people where they were, publicans are Democrats so Emmy he may have had wide scale republican support, but it, but his his secret sauce was Democrat, was nominal democratic support that won him. One him victories in places that nobody anticipate Amy. Let's, let's move off that and talk about the rigging question. So if the rigging question in in in Trump trumps head in twenty six team was that there was a sort of deep electoral state that was going to prevent him from winning and rigging the election. So if you wonder where the deep state thought comes from its that somehow tall gonna be rigged, voter fraud- and you know I don't know- I did- democratic
secretaries of state in individual states whatever, and he said he wouldn't, he refused to say he would abide by the results of the elections. Will that became mood cause he won. The took off again and going away and became president so that quieted him down and then in panel, this Cocker Mamie Voting where voter fraud panel that you now came up with. Nothing was one this mandate, so you can't use so he can't with the if the election is rigged and eighteen he's the rigour, so we can cope with the election being rigged. So what's the republican excuse gonna be for losing everything's grade, and you know who he is making Amerika great again and everybody loves him, even though they don't, but that's what the craziest of the Trump cards think
they can say they're gonna, to say the media did relentless attacks by the media and the media. Used by the deep state and by Mahler and by you gotta know, dead, crystal steel in the dossier and everything like that took trump down and he was taken down by Jim Acosta and the fake news and the fake news made me lose and that's where he stands from now. That's that's one possibility of where things are for him and the Republicans is that basically, the election the illegitimate. Now in twenty fourteen Barack Obama rehearsed a version of IE. The mid term results are illegitimate and when Republicans one nine Senate seeds to remember this, he gave a press conference the day after he said I do not
I think that a third it out a third of the electorate who says what turned out thirty two percent turnout between fourteen Early, Electra Electric goes basically against Democrats. I'm not taken that, as I dont think that means anything. He basically said. Whereas in twenty ten he had so we thought we were, shall act right. You said we were. It was a shoe lacking and he acknowledged that it was a shoe lacking. But in this case he was like mad mean anything really did mean anything, look what happened and twenty sixteen it so didn't mean anything, so don't mean anything that you know that that he could have been a different and more visionary politician, he could have seen the writing on the wall and said o all they all the heat and all the energy here is.
In the US and the other guys camp, and if we nominate you know this sub neurasthenic crook would the emails. Maybe we're gonna be making a mistake, and we should look elsewhere for our candidate that he did not have that. Actually, I think we're going to be really interesting is this is going to be the first time, the wigand yet to see to what extent Donald Trump considers a failure, that's associated, he studied could be associated with, but that is not him him personally to see. But she actually carers is, as is going to be the Donald Trump of Hey. It's it's. It's not the conservative party, it's called the Republican Party. I can do what I want. They can do what they want, or is it my oars or is to what extent,
Is he going to be wrapped up in this? I guess the closest that we would get to that was his performance after he lost the Iowa caucuses, which was actually rather gracious, and he kind of just blew it off. I supposed to something that Mino happens. He hadn't got taste of winning at that point, so we really haven't. We haven't really say that he blew off. Didn't wasn't that the whole thing where he said the TED crews was so mean to Herman Kane them. I remember I remember his aid via radio acquired. Remember that one shocking shockingly ungracious yeah, but the great people, but then he changed, but then he changed because TED crews stolen from poor Ben Ben Carson, remember, TED Cruises,
and pay manager tweeted something out than they took it back, and then it was poor Ben car. So he hadn't advertise it a logic of television yet again to get radical look at why? I think we don't know the answer to your question. It does, I think, will know in October. In other words, if the writing is on the wall in October that they're gonna lose he's gonna, separate himself and he's get he. He will not in What I have been writing is on the wall. Now, what's he tweeting red wave? Have you seen him yeah, but the red wave twigs are not that's not that's, not the writing on the wall what I mean is, if basically but the war Was it starting in June, the bottom start to fall out in district after their private polling and house district after district in and some of the Senate, races and stuff, like that, the bottom again to fall out. No one. Really. There was this moment when the generic ballot that measures- you know whether you say you love her. A republican or democrat- was closing at one point of closed in some holes to four points, and now it's back to nine or ten
in most of them, and apparently there is. This meltdown seem slow motion meltdown going on in some of these districts. He's saying he wants to gladden campaign six days he's saying once rally six days a week, you say there saying maybe they'll send Avant, they'll send down junior loss, and this one I said how these surrogates to try the nationalized. The race and get people going but I'm saying like, if, if the data in MID September, say you know what head for the hills does he want, souci had himself of all that defeat. I don't know. Does he want to go campaign for people who are going to lose right, not a shot. I mean he's he's he's serve these changes tune after the fact before right hasn't. He hasn't disown associated losses. I forget who
was it. The Luther straying Rash, yeah well was Marina beyond needed. Although we have here, we are weak right. He was a nice guy, but we like that. Ok, but I don't know I mean look. The problem for Trump is that he, if there were a way that he could forestall the democratic wave, he should be up all night for the next two months doing it because he should not won t should want to Democrats to lose my one so that house committees do not
and up majority democratic, so that they will be investigating every nook and cranny of his administration and ultimately so that he is not impeached, because that would be bad unless it wouldn't be bad. Now there is that there is a theory out there that says that his impeachment would be the ultimate polarizing strategy that would get the right and Republicans to rally behind him as never before, and there is one piece of evidence to suggest. That's true now Clinton's impeachment, where cleanse impeachment had the perverse effect, not of driving people from Clinton, because he was so tainted, but rather rallying to his defence because of negative partisanship in the late nineteenth nineties, where people said if we let this happen. Nuke
rich and religious rights, and all these terrible Republicans will control everything forever and they'll. Take away your abortions and they'll take away your data, no we're whatever, but progressive things you want and so Clint must be defended at all costs, and I think you can see where republicans might say. We have to defend trumpet all costs, because this is the this is the liberal. This is the last gasp of the liberal media. You know collegiate the academic urban. Conspiracy and if they are overdue, they impeach him, then You know they win and we lose, and we cannot allow that to happen. Now you, your ear beer. You think that impeachment would be bad because it would separate some Republicans from Trump,
for here, because the conditions I in vision in which that scenario becomes even thinkable, ensures that there have to be some people who peel off they couldn't. They would have to be so serious and That does not mean we run the same in all areas of impeachment. The articles impeachment would have is so serious that some report people were in an hour circles thanked. The Democrats are just going to bring articles of impeachment for whatever eating a saint ham sandwich backwards. There's no evidence at that gonna be the case. There are democrats who want that to happen, but their Adam Democrats, who matter or who are in a position to execute that directive, people it Jerry Nobbler, aren't you You say we don't have the goods yet and it would be streamline responsible for us to bring articles impeachment because we don't like the guy. Like what I'll green does every three weeks and put articles of impeachment me before Democrats, and it just goes nowhere, that's kind
the thing that I expect to have an end in the event that they have something serious enough, that they can bring articles. They would do so the young understanding that they would have to peel off enough Republicans to bring something that is legitimate. They could not. They could not put a party line vote before the house on article, good who really disagree with you in every possible way respect here. If Democrats have the votes to impeach, they will impeach him for picking his toenails in Poughkeepsie. That is the logic of the democratic position. Whatever trump is is illegitimate, he should not be president he's not a legitimate, maybe in the electoral college is now from. In the view of many of them, illegitimate, therefore he's illegitimate, Prima facie cuz, he didn't win. The popular vote You can't impeach on that. Maybe we can peach on anything, has there's a hike
misdemeanours undefined than the constitution, and I think that the logic of the democratic carcass of a democratic party work will require- and I think you said this a couple months ago, when I was surprised to hear you saying this now- that will require them to impeach him. Even if it's a mistake, you can say, excuse me, you could make the argument that the impeachment Clinton was. It was a terrible mistake by the Republicans, but they did it anyway because they had to because they have gone too far down the road. In the view that Clinton was a uniquely harm Oh exam, moral example in the white House- and so I dont know if they win by one vote. They can't do it, but if they win by ten or more, not only can they, but they will, and maybe serious. Maybe the charge is really very sick. Maybe Mala will issue a report that will give them total ground. On which to make a serious argument that he should be removed. I think that I suppose,
that's where my biases than I own. I expect there to be something substantial enough to generate a real charged to pursue impeachment, but Republicans will still not vote for if there is so that's the trainer Republicans zone have to vote for it in the house. If there are enough Democrats to vote for it in the Senate, because I dont think did the deal that collects up your internet Harding no hold on. Did the Clinton impeachment get a single democratic vote. Enigmatic smacks of expects a purely partisan process and I What happened in the Clinton impeachment hold on I dont imagine that it will be a purely partisan process in my mind, because what I imagine is that the articles that will be brought in the event of a condition that leads democratic, to make a real charge on this, and not just because the activists bases demanding it.
Then. I should say that I really. I do believe that the activists base will demand that of of Democrats and they will comply in some fashion or form, but I don't necessarily the in think it will pass the house if it is a superfluous, like I said that they will have to take a vote and I think they would have to take a vote. I don't expect articles to pass. I was simply a party line, but ok, so let's go to the Clinton impeachment five Democrats voted in favour of three of the four articles of impeachment. They were Virgil, good, have Regina Ralph Hall of two this public health, Pennsylvania, Charlie stem home of Texas, Jeanne Taylor of Mississippi. My guess is that none of those districts is now were represented by a democratic. Any longer eight Republicans voted against, Sherwood Bullet of New York, my Castle of Delaware, Phil English of Pennsylvania, Nancy Johnson of Connecticut Jacob of California, California, generally to Iowa, Ralph, Regular, Ohio
he was only impede. It was only impeached on two of the four charges brought against him, but it was pretty much a party line vote and I don't think that there was a so there was not a trial in this and there was not a single were republican vote, a democratic vote against when he was acquitted. I'm sorry
Let me just find the acquittal numbers here. If I could I'm sorry, this is boring. Someone saying either perjury charge was defeated. Forty five to fifty five and that basically the obstruction of justice charge was defeated. Fifty fifty- and that was why the Republicans in its own fact, budget were probably centres, didn't vote, voted against removal from office and no no Democrat voted for any of the impeachment removal charges in the south to connect this, or that was a part. That was a partisan impeachment to connect us to the first half of the podcast. What happens? Is there an explosion in the activists left in the event of of no removal of trump? Nobody is at hand, it depends on what we did
It depends on eleven November. Next is ok. Let's say that the charges are not sufficient to are not sufficient. Are insufficient to make it open and shut case that he should be removed and the Republicans only be prepared protecting him fervour their own craven, partisan reasons if they dont vote for them. It will be baked in the cake, that is to say they will understand that this is being done as a as a gigantic of a Senate resolution of condemnation, except the house right and they'll be some ridiculous trial, wherever everybody's wearing robes, like Willie Renquist, designed this robe Gesine Siena Production and Gilbert Insolvency, a lengthy, and so he had the robe that day he had seen the production. So, though, Senator Supreme Court will preside, they'll be a thing, it'll be over Thou, the end of it, and
they will say well. This was a success, because the country heard the case and I don't think anyone. My guess is. No.
We'll be disappointed. Everybody will say on all their favorite shows that if, in the scenario that he's in the drop in open and shut case, that he should be removed, that he won't be removed and that this is this is the purpose of this is a moral expression of disgust and outrage, and that will that will happen similar and then are some of our friends on the right will, of course, useless to say the deep state, as well as a coup attempt. This is the deep state. This is the liberals, and you know they must be stopped. They must be now here's the question that we continue. The first Paul Neil in the racist, anti semitic piece of dung from Wisconsin and his friends and all the people like that, could they be stimulated to acts of violence in the in the in the course of an impeachment proceedings on the grounds that you know
Deep state is now. This is a coup attempt and they need to counteract the coup attempt. I find it tough to believe only because the people that we've seen on the right or move to acts of violence are two types of people and they often probably overlap in the Venn diagram. One is the alt right He white Nationalist branded all right when there are so far outside the mainstream. That is very difficult to call them the right, and the second is like the pizza gaiters, the the. The right is the pizza one of the pizza get her shot up that's what I am referring to. The writers is composed more as a coalition is more composed of people who just don't do not sign holders they don't get out in the street. There not activists much less so than the last there's more Less potential, therefore, for violence from the right than there is from the left, not none, but it wouldn't come from the you know the. The really reliable republican voter or come from somebody's already pretty far outside the mainstream and what ignite mass episodes of violence,
some people are on the right. I think that's what the potential is very limited. I mean you never underestimate the ability of one crazy person to do an enormous amount of damage that seems to crystallise. You know the views of everybody. Remember that Bill Clinton turned his own political fortunes around in part as a result of the actions of Timothy Mcveigh like he was on the robes everyone assumed he was dead. You know that he was politically dead, couldn't win and ninety ninety six and then Timothy Mcveigh blew up the federal building in Oklahoma City and was revealed to be this. You know denizen of the far right and Clinton said. Oh look at this country. We have to come together with Russia. Limbaugh was making thus all hate each other, and all of that and the end the right was thrown us heels like a boot. Did the quick risk, the quick respective lack of social media and stuff like that
Everybody was so shocked by what happened in Oklahoma City that there was no real rallying ability to counteract the clear message and Clinton made a powerful speech, and he looks United remounted provider, and that was the beginning of his road to to recovery. So I can't remember why brought this up except to say that violence is of you know, I mean only takes one bright. Only takes one guy or in my face is two guys actually make a bet from for mass violence. It takes more than that they potential to catalyzing mass violence on a mass movement. That is a violent.
Women their hearing vessel, just a slightly more limit limited potential for that on the right than there is literally no history in the amounts. If I get, if I think of it, of of right wing rioting, there's a lot of lending, let there's a lot of left wing rioting and some of its very romanticize left the Haymarket riots of the you know of eighteen. Eighty six and you know various other, you know explode, you know and including master illustration. Mass demonstrations are a species of the right. That is not the way. To the right hand, handles things. That's more the way the left handles things. Even the tea party, you know mobilizations, were they clean up after themselves? If they did they pick begged me. There were some speeches and they have constitutions and they went away. I wasn't like five hundred thousand people, you know on them all oh yeah, and as distinct from paramilitary activity. It's just eight states, just throwing them
mob the right. The riot I mean you know The innovations on the right in the Trump age have all really been about Trump importing Alot of act ads for them behaviors and ideas that that were on the left into the they were hungry, lasses mixed with the crowds at world level. Bring federation had so put them down. Other kind of left wing politics with you know, people throwing chairs at each other attack in you know enough in a front on in in West. So, as I think the question of whether or not with we see right wing, mimicking of left wing violence. In that time, Violence is completely on its own, while the relevant, though, because in the event that there was some sort of active rightwing violence which is particularly completely- and you can completely see it happening, some sort of all right
airlines or of what we saw he we saw last year. Charlottesville there was a. I wasn't really allow it, but we now concern that many people involved so in the event of that kind of an act it with Emma, you can see how that would be used guitar. The right in the right would be on its back foot and even though it wasn't a part of a mass moving and wouldn't even ignite a mass movement. I had no appeal to a mass movement. It would be used to justify attacks on the entire right, as, as being you know, the the impetus behind that sort of violence. The why you have that sort of violence, rape and there are probably have a stigmatizing affected and along the lines of mighty fine, so basically we're just making crop up We were just this dissolve Zoellick speculative fiction, but if they can have the Handmaids tale, You gonna have our scenarios you now we know
no one's, given us enemies for this podcast. Fortunately, though, I would, I would accept one if anybody wanted to now that they're going to nominate popular movie. Another adding popular movie is a category of me and the Oscars to best picture that we can have best popular movie. Maybe you'd miss that I did was what what is it? What is it? What is it? We don't know what it means. It means basing Mean Disney rights to women Award every year because it's over Have the best wasn't gonna have the pictures that make the best picture that made a lot of money. It's one of the dumbest idea ever, because all those movies guideline they lack, had annual words. They weren't the televised ones. They got the break out the words that we're like technical- I suppose you have pop music like there is that there is a best pop album best pops ah no promises. This is literally the literally how many people went to go, see it,
now another we're going to have to figure out how to categorize such a thing, because there are, there are basically it's like you know, the commentary podcast would win popular Party asked of the year and Jonah governs Rana would win niche podcast of the air. I think a charming niche podcast a beer just just it just to try to establish the categories just just to make that very clear. So we are like black Panther and here like Moonlight. Ok, that's that's! Really. The distinction here between jobs podcast, an hour so now that we have established that and have it so incredibly hard in this studio. Today we will see
goodbye to you till next week for Abraham Walled nor Rossman and the absent and dearly nests or a memorial. Today on John passports, keep the candle burning.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-12.