Some guy Welcome to the commentary magazine, podcast too is Monday April third twenties seventeen. I'm John pot hordes. The editor of Commentary Commentary magazine the seventy two year old Monthly of intellectual property, legal analysis called Earl Studies and general conservative wisdom- please Join us at commentary magazine that. Where we give you a few free, reeds and then ask you to pay my team five for a yearly digital subscription.

Or twenty nine. Ninety five for an all access subscription, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox commentary, magazine dot com with me, as always nor Rossman or associate ever high Noah Hygiene and green wild. Our senior editor high Abe, John. We But we might pull back a little bit from the on rush of the is news and all of the bizarre little developments of the day, NEWS as every day has little pieces of news involving the investigation into the meddling Russia in the twelve sixteen campaign and the behaviour of the Obama administration toward the incoming Trump Administration during the transition period. As regards the role of Russia in me,

twenty sixteen presidential campaign and try to sort out whose helped whose heard what the separate. What lines are and what ordinary people of sustained political interests. Should be taking away from the conversation at the present moment and as we have discussed here, we see two separate call them plot lines: justice for want of a better word to separate plot lines being developed, one having to do with the russian meddling and the other having to do with the Obama restorations outgoing behaviour. One is being leaned on very heavily, obviously, by the day.

Crafts and the anti Trump side and the other is being leaned on very heavily by the trumpet ministration and its defenders and for those who are not inclined to take up simply a partisan or radiological view of this, but we actually want. Stand where they should be focusing their attention thing seem to be getting very complicated, so Noah. Maybe you could lay out if you would the argument that is being made by the democratic liberals media on the russian meddling front and then we can, or would you prefer, given the expression on his face I'll take ok, so I wanted to throw this row. This also throw this too now to start with, but me

We will start with the start with that. The debate over what is happening here, because the Kohen imagination again we're talking about this from a thirty four thirty thousand foot perspective for somebody who doesn't really follow the days of ants super closely as they evolve dated eight because they give off at the rather dank every day. But this starts essentially for the average Joe on March forth, when Donald Trump took their twitter account and set the world on fire, not with his tweet about Arnold force. Enigmas ratings, which went forgotten from that day between, but the one yes, where he said had I've being spied on by Brok, Obama. No, I believe more specifically, he said Brok Obama before the election wire tat fire tat me me, tat my wires lie wires.

So that is the turn of that's where it starts. That's that's where people begin to tune into this thing, even though we learned subsequently, the details of the investigation bubble blocked started before that's where people are starting to tune it since then, we ve well, it should be said everything people, weren't weren't tuned into the question of russian interference. It was this no matter how hot counter attack that began on March forth So now we want to go through the details of the counter attack and then we'll go back. Then I will then I will attempt to dispel the line of argument about the rush meddling, but after the counter attack, so most our since that counter attack began and that this is this all stems from a conversation we're having about whose centrally has the upper hand politically in this situation, and since that counterattack began, we have learned through as a result of the wheel,

that were set in motion by this errant tweet, one which no one supports well on its factual merits, ally or adversary of Donald Trump or otherwise, that might Flynn an essay who was forced to resign. Just days prior was revealed to the press, perhaps and untoward in an untoward fashion for having normal com relations with his russian counterpart, but that was construed by Donald Rumsfeld. He was he was found to have been the stocking in the transition period to the soviet ambassador surgery closely as Russia Vassar excuse me, Russian Sarah kisses have and that kiss sorry kiss act whatever russian Guy Russian Guy in Washington. Middle of reading crime and punish again so I got a lotta Russia may switch were guy laugh, I could mention or marble lotta for

all kinds of Russia for Ferry Petrovitch, but in this case its kiss So, of course, lack talking to Lynn Flynn is the incoming National security visor the time and kiss lack as their russian ambassador. But the heat on a day. The whole point is that, on the day in which a bomb had announced sanctions against Russia for its meddling and the and the expulsion of thirty five Russia, personnel from the United States, as as and some sanctions that Mercedes were had between Fleming KISS, after which led the european kiss lacks boss announced he would not retaliate for. Are the Obama sanctions or for the or for the tossing out of the thirty five officers to which Trump tweet something like

Furthermore, very smart, very smart, a potent not to not to you know this is, could be a real opening, so that was the Flynn thing that happened during their campaign that everybody that the press expose them, that it turns out that Exposure of these conversations was very toward so. Maybe your like galvanised wasn't well, because it was apparently intercepted as normal intercepts. Are we monitor russian diplomatic traffic? This fling got caught up in one No one alleges he did anything illegal here. He was having a conversation that very same conversation with somebody about american policy under the next administration. That was quoting quote unmasked. He was caught up an incidental, intelligent, Without a warrant his name was revealed and as a result of it, you his name, his his voice and what he was doing on the call was called it was in it. He was inadvertently collected because,

It is illegal for any american citizen to be Sir veiled by the intelligence community correct, so it was released. Essentially the either the transcripts themselves or a summary of the transcripts, was related to reporters that receive revealed. That Michael had lied to my pants, probably at the behest of the president. He was subsequently exposed as having lied and made. My pants look really bad and there was a dust up and it resulted in MIKE wins. Forced resignation compelled to sign a resignation letter and leave the administration since then- and this is the thirty foot headline sort of stuff- that people are Are able to follow only from their heads has thirty thousand via the FBI we ve learned was investigating the Trump campaign. It continues to investigate. The Trump campaign since July, for contacts with Russia

officials might Flint lied about the amount of money who is receiving from Russians. He was directly Konrad remunerated by russian organizations with ties to the Kremlin. Specifically, the Kremlin funded news network on which he paid. He was paid quite a bit of money to sit next Vladimir Putin at a dinner, he was also on the turkish payroll, the turkish government's peril undisclosed. He was acting as a agent of this foreign government knows arranged relax, it was disclosed, it was. It was disk we know about this now because it was disclosed if disclosure forms after his resignation but apparently had he had been identified, not registered though he disclosed it in the White House disclosure process, but did not disclose it as part of american law, which required him to register under the as as a foreign as an agent of a foreign,

So a lot of this is coming about as a result of the fact that Donald Trump has mobilized. His forces in government and outside to look into his question. Whether or not we were surveillance legally, which stems likely from a misinterpretation of that. Those reports about MIKE Flynn being caught up, incidentally in wiretapping, because that being caught up in that isn't the big deal. It was there. Collation of that to reporters. That is the big deal and now, rather than a sure, that's exactly right. We should get a bit here, but because clearly the idea is that something untoward went on between Flynn and carefully AK that, explained by the amount of money that Flynn was getting from Russia that he failed to disclose as part of the foreign aid? That's an implication that I think some people want to create, but is not obvious from the information that we have no, but that that is the

was that is the imputation that was going on in that stuff was going out even before the inauguration. The idea that Flynn was having improper contacts articles coming out. It was the fact that the article came out and that we now know that the articles came out because information was released from intelligence transcripts. That. In theory. No american citizen should be that is. Nowhere is this is the subject of a foreign intelligence report. The only way of american citizen is exposed affords intelligence report is either inadvertently because he didn't do anything. Or because he did something so bad that, because it was clear Incidentally, they still have the information to suggest that say he was an agent and could be arrest

for ass, we hush or something like that, you use but striking either by the way. Is that its incredibly hard to stay at the thirty thousand foot level here, which I think beats very much to what's going on rank, as its speaks to John I point earlier that you should flesh out here about obvious. Nation and about are throwing up this big fog of complicating matters which which, which we find ourselves getting tied up in just try to stay in a bright. So what I dont know is now that we ve been talking for about sex. Minutes? I don't have the foggiest idea, whether anything that we ve set as even remotely coherent anybody who isn't deepen the way round this Well, we can connect flexible pledged to make them abroad. Simple point that, having heard what, while we were talking, will you guys we're talking with this so so trump You know what sort of Europe with the committed is unfair error by the ridiculous tweet that actually known agrees with that that then you know has

spurred on this, the succession of of of action right. He really, if you think about it, his first. Own goal, his first unforced at her with all this came to him campaign when he said he hopes that the Russians find Hilary is missing emails right, there were a lot of that as yet, but that but that, but when He said that during the press conference that that began, the charges of treason and other than the talk of treason about Trump himself. I mean someone like MIKE Flynn. Is a sort of separate uneasy ended up being part of the trunk is, but he's he's been sort of curious case on his own, we did we do. You know where he stood with with Russia. I show you know that at an earlier conversation from was tweeting today about Hilary Clinton's debate, questions whether she apologized and where did that information come from Russia periodically for was the right one.

So the point is that the reason that this interest in the russian involvement in the Trump campaign came about was, of course, trumps. You know what The old state took a chunk of the Ukraine stole Crimea. You know, has been killing his political opponents Stole Crimea, you know, has been killing his, local opponents has been. You know, with choked off. Press freedoms is basically blue, termed the country into a dictatorship is threatening its neighbours and the near abroad. Not so hard for an American politicians say negative things about Vladimir Putin, except for trumps, all question has been since the middle of twenty fifteen. What the hell is going on Why is he so positive about Putin? And then he does that

In twenty sixteen that start making it look even weirder, like he hires Paul man afford to be his campaign manager, and then we discover the poor man afford has taken an enormous amount of money from a Putin puppet in Ukraine. The inequality on college victory, of and that you know he has all these side deals and business relations with with with the Russians and to the extent that he he was basic hired one of the reasons he was hires because will, he knows how to run a convention. Remember that, like metaphor, ran the seventy six convey he willing those at a rather convention So what happened in the week before the convention?

happened was that the Republican Party platform that called for a hard line on on the russian invasion of Ukraine was watered down. Nobody quite knows how nobody quite knows who did it? Nobody quite knows how the amended was made, but when the world of Kui bono, when you say who benefits and why would it be done- was clear for that there were interests in the you know. In the Trump camp that were objectively pro Putin, there was a platform line that called for legal assistance to Ukraine. It was which is by the way, something that Republicans Congress had just voted for. In Obama had vetoed

and it was changed. You all appropriate assistance so and then, two weeks later, because a more revelations about after the convention, more revelations about the weird connections between man afford and the Russians are manifold- is forced to resign, is fired as the campaign manager and Steve Bannon, Kelleam Conway are brought on to manage the campaign and then the next two months or whatever the next two months are. So. This is the predicate to the argument that, with that that was increasingly made after the election, that, aside from wiki leaks and some other things, that there was untoward russian involvement in in the twenty sixth election and we know that there was untoward russian involvement. We know that there's untoward russian involvement in the french election and that there were some effort to do in the germinal I mean this is what we are now being told. Is it's it's unambiguous user data, however, by republican voters, according the poles, who don't believe it that there was any rash interfering with, even though nobody disputes that now

in the weird lists of the term campaign of core the weariness of the Trump administration? Of course you have Trump going on and on and on about how all. This is a witch hunt. And then you have Nicky Hayley, as you went ambassador saying with everybody knows that there was Russia following the twenty sixteen campaign, because it's kind of every man for himself. As far as one can tell now to try to get to thirty thousand feet in the thirty thousand feet game So there is no question that trumps, and Russia and the weirdness of why Trump is not, and is so positive about Putin and will saving negative by Putin that man effort and then it turns out that MIKE Flynn, who was one of the earliest serve defender supporters of Trump within the framework of the defence, community, you know, is also made a lot of money from Russia. Today,

We didn't know we didn't other amounts, but we knew certainly the mean is on the table of Russia today and he wouldn't disclose how much and went down the before. He was tat for an answer, and the simple fact is that you know Flynn was dismissed by Obama. He was head of the defence intelligence Agency under Obama. He was dismissed and are forced to retire from from from military duty, and he like needed money. So you know one of the symptoms, sympathetic things as well. You know the guy service country for thirty five years we had to make a living afterwards, and this is where he is. Who offered him some though, so that's one euro defensive them but it only. It only works to say some weird going on because of all this other stuff because of Trump, because men afford, because of the fact that there were a couple of people on the

posted foreign policy committee that from put together, including a guy that no one had ever heard it before named Carter, page, was like objectively, even if he is not paid, is what we would call an agent of influence of Putin, write em in them and Russia is to serve defender. Does an out now defend of Russian Putin seems to be his only reason for being. Since I don't know a single person who had heard of him before he was mysteriously placed on this committee of fifty supporters of Trump in the foreign policy world. So the intelligence committees decide both the persons and tells you they need to investigate the question of russian meddling in the election. And then out of. Nowhere comes this alternate plot line and the alternate plot line is. That it and the alternate plot line does not originate with Trump. It originally

It's in stories in the New York Times in the Washington Post in the week before the inauguration. And what is this? we say the story say that, alarmed by information that was collected and worried that information Would we buried by the new administration because it is inimical to their interests patriarch members of the outgoing Obama administration, working together in secret, ensured that inadvertently collected intelligence involving trump officials in conversations with the Russians. Would be seen by the intelligence committees, because bread crumbs would be left within the administration that could be followed by the comedians.

He's investigators and since the election we have discovered what that means. What that means and story by Eli Lake today are for Neil. I like him in in Bloomberg, moves them Ex makes this explicit that the Americans, virtually captured in Sylvie in collection of russian information. That their names should be unmasked, meaning that either no or narrowly would say american number one american number, two american number, three, that you can pretty much tell who they are from the context of the conversation and that you would like. Instead of having it say, American of one, you have its say, MIKE Flim or you haven't, say Josh mine. I say we would say Joe Schmo or you would say, filch, Med, lap or whatever, whoever it is, who works with a Trump administration so that it was said,

when you said to the CIA. If you were in the intelligence, can you give me anything you have or the F b I give you anything. You haven't MIKE Flynn when they type it into the the base MIKE Flim. This file would come up. And that they actually gave specific intelligence file numbers two, somebody rather on the hill right, so intelligence, violence first to say these are the numbers of the files. You should look for accordingly lay like today. One of those people is former national scurry visor. Susan rice was pretty high up the Obama administration. So counter narrative is ok. Apple with Russia, Russia, Russia,.

Not legitimate. It's illegal for it is. It is illegal this this would be. The plot lie method, this it's it's laid out as clearly as I'm gonna, let out right now, because, sadly, now ok, let me just say. The Obama administration sought to suppose the names of Americans caught up in intelligence collection of foreign entities in order to create this breadcrumb trail And the entire effort is illegitimate, because no Americans name no american- should be spied on by the government. So even though As no one says, some rules-

were changed and twenty eleven to mean that this so called on masking would not be considered illegal and then it could be done in part to serve clarify what was going on in the intelligence files within the government. It was still untoward inappropriate and if you really taken to forty thousand feet, that the point here would be to match the Trump Administration in investigations of its bad behaviour, to force officials to be constantly testifying to intelligence committees, to have their lives up ended to have them will have to hire council for hundreds of years the values and in general, to be served caught into a scandal, trap that would, you know, ruin their lives and destroy the Trump administration, and I

the real offence in bad. If that's, in fact, what happened is that haven't administration taking intelligence. That's to be used to ensure american National Security and using it for political means that that would be the act that is the accusation, is being made by friends of the administered. I should like Molly way and Sean Davis SAM Mike Turann, whose a commentary contributor and people like that that this since a police station of intelligence for the purpose of scoring political points and helping Democrats recapture by the house and twenty eighteen. Ok. So I have something club quick digression on this. Is that a lot of this intelligence breadcrumbs stuff is small ball it's so it need not give us, and the only reason MIKE Flynn was ever God had nothing to do with the leaks out everything to do with my friends behaviour. Nothing.

Was untoward, the financing lie is illegal. The famous well, ok, nothing alleged, was illegal, get the words if there was a queen, those landscapes that where she hunted and wipe out when we discuss and I've written- and everybody says here that what happened to him was ugly, not that should not have been revealed to the press rights, the substance of a river transcripts whenever I shouldn't have been revealed to the press, that was bad wrong. Whoever did that should be punished. However, what was what got him forced to was forced to resign was the fact that there was discrepancies within the administration as to what happened that day, and it has everything to do with my plan. And the president and nothing to do with whoever relieved these transcripts remember what we were told is Flynn had to go because he lied to my pants and let my pants go on television and tell an untruth.

About him. I don't remember what the I dont even care with the untruth was the idea was Michael and went on television and defended Flynn by saying something that was untrue and therefore went to the vice president's credibility and Flint had to go wasn't about the Russia stuff. It was about that, although of course it was about the Russia that, because he had become a liability, He would have been government based on what we know now he would win along were violently would have been gone five times, seminars for this administration to themselves digging up a digression anyway, so back to thirty thousand feet, we're back up there, maybe this is u boils down. Try essentially took to make this a really complicated. Political issue is an effort to create distractions frankly from Everybody understands it's. Ok, we should say no is now saying at thirty thousand feet high. Now saying that there is a deliberate effort by the trumpet witnessed none other than nothing see, let's not a thirty thousand. What I believe- and I am very glad about

scandals, to the extent that they become scandals is something that can be boiled down to a sentence and fully internalized and understood, and I do think that the trumpet ministration right now, the case there making is just a little bit more complicated than the case. Everybody else is making. Essentially there saying the Obama people are trying to undermine and destroy this administration by going out of their way to do something, weird and untoward and shouldn't happen, and there trying to destroy this administration from the other side of this outcome. Is the trap. Administration is reckless and careless and try to undermine american sovereignty, and all of this was exposed. William was it. I don't see the Trump campaign. What's your term campaign will get the term campaign and transition, but essentially yet- and those are the two

the two sentences- and, frankly, I think one is a lot easier to understand and the other a willow, really our closest can say you managed to boil down to leave the trumps trumps. Sides assertion and innocent from size assertion doesn't have a whole lot of supporting evidence. Ok. Well, it has the support of evidence that we ve actually talked about, which is that the now I would say- and none of that tangible though we have- The nation, like Flynn looking for immunity, he's all over the new, so we don't Lebanon. We only have legs tat. Gentle reports about these unmasked. Milk is, according to the Washington Post, nine officials. Cross the Obama administration got together in a loose confederation to ensure that the information of this work, The information that was gathered. Incidentally, involving trump officials would not be buried, but would somehow be visible

and the intelligence committees started their investigation of russian meddling in the election right so, That was an article not written to support trump it the article to celebrate the patriotism of these? officials who were going to make sure that the fast, just take over of the United States by his agents are Putin. Wasn't allowed to happen because they were so noble and in fact people said on twitter constantly. We should give them awards- they should win a war, They'Re- not going to let this happen so the aims just The five means, if you're Susan Rice and her forever lessons and rice and her and all her friends what theirs. Is the country is at stake, Oh, I am going to ignore the petty responsibilities that I might have to kind of common fairness and and

and decency, because I'm dealing with people who are uncommon and indecent and inappropriate and horrible. Now. What this is all tertiary, because it In fact, The information that is get that Susan Rice made evident to door, her people, if it Susan Rice and whatever made clear. Or you know has exposed so that people know what it is if in fact, it points to real horrible behave. Here and possibly illegal behaviour and tampering, and all of that then they we'll be just they will have. They learn that, let me finish, they will have been justified in what they did. They will, in fact, have been doing a patriotic duty The Trump administration will be destroyed and

probably he will be impeached and potentially convicted. Ok, if none of it amounts to anything Then none of it amounts to anything, and there wasn't there great Harmon and in fact,. Devil. Numerous. The House Intelligence Committee Chair, who has been going to great lengths both to expose the masking by talking about it but doesn't want anyone to see the documents, the unmasked documents. Defending the is making it possible for people who were inadvertently. Who were improperly en masse to remain masked right, The words like there are in documents. That no you should see, and so no one will know that who they were,

anything that I just said make sense to anybody. I know you out there in the pod podcast can answer where few were few feed lower than than than thirty thousand feet. But but I won responded to something, not the nose, and you said the that be the case against frumpy the anti trump side of this has some evidence, whereas, whereas the debt trap assertions really really don't evidence is sort of a loose right right, right, Buddhism, Cognitive, their resignation there's through splint, but really the case of Flynn boats high have the only thing resemble only scraps of concrete fact that support their case because flints name was leaked. And he also was proven to to do to be guilty in the ways that that the gene

I'm just well that jail, not my killed, Magna, not legally you'll, feel better. Nobody is implicated in in in things addition, so the Irish. The argument that has the most evidence, in my opinion is the anti trumps. I because they can point to an ongoing FBI investigation of their conduct. They can point to an essay official who resigned in disgrace and is now seeking immunity in order to testify about something. You don't know what that creates this billowing smoke cloud that were in the middle of the other side of it and let all occasion and kind of like right. Suggestion of something that might have been aunt orbits, but nobody alleges is illegal. It is untoward what is happening that is alleged and it illegal planets- also not relate away elegant way among the things that we shouldn't know or that there's an FBI investigation I mean, it was calm, decides to go before the book go before the Senate. Tells its committee and announced that there was an FBI investigation into Russia Meddling and the Trump campaign here.

That's was to say that, according to the FBI Zone rules is that was available because enough of it was discussed in the press. He felt that it was ok, of course, anything that James call me now does has to be questioned because he's a Eric and behaves incredibly horribly and Guenaud basically involved himself in the twenty six, Intellectual, incredibly inappropriate manner should have been fired by Trump Trump now clear We should have known each other fired him and he Didn'T- and God knows Why- and here we are less is always that you, the problem created by his own FBI, director like who he ratify. How does this justification for being, however,. That someone is being investigated by the FBI doesn't mean that he's guilty or than anybody's guilty or than anybody in the world than its true. Just because they are investigation doesn't mean the investigation will find anything, which is why you're not to know that there's the investigation into things, because they can do these private investigations and close them out without anybody ever being the wiser

and the other simple fact that the Trump side has on its in its defence should be restated, which is that report after ports as there has been no evidence of collusion. Between the between me and the Russians right now Having said all this, and I think we ve been leaning very heavily on the pro trump side of the ledger. I think we should go to Anti trust side of the ledger. The Anti trust cited. The ledger is that This country needs to know the extent to which the Russians in view of themselves in our election, so that we can know what to do about Russia so that We can know how to defend ourselves against these forms of foreign attack and, to the extent, the Trump administration is making that job difficult to impossible. They are harming our next.

Full sovereignty or national security and the proper grounds on which we have to have a relationship with Russia which effectively declared war against the good working order of the United States in its constitution and to the extent that Trump has made this more difficult, is interfering with the process and seems to believe that the process itself is illegitimate. That is very bad news right. So that's the problem. The problem is that the atom shift, the ranking member of the house until just committee can be behaving and improper ways endeavour Illness, the chairman of the hit, can be behaving in a proper ways and all the stuff just becomes a form of partisan fighting. But there is a route this this problem, that we cannot allow to fester, and we cannot how other countries to take wisdom from there

russian experiment in twenty sixteen and say, go all out us and twenty twenty cause there a lot of other countries, including our friends in North Korea, who I'm sure, would love nothing but took thrust into total in complete chaos that the russian method wasn't tat into work, arm voting machines and do stuff like that. It was basically to use this information techniques and big lies, and you know Botz and things like that kind of muddy the fight and muddy the conversation and distract pillory Clinton in ways that would make it harder for her to keep your eyes on the prize and focus like a laser beam on winning in November and while people on the can heard of side say, look, there's the Russians didn't make heard, not go to Wisconsin or go to Ohio or go to Michigan. That was her choice. While you can argue that girl was her choice, but you know the current.

Our campaign was a condition of December regulation, because campaign. Chairman's emails were being released Start daily basis by Wikileaks, and he didn't even remember what was in them, and so they were distracted. Maybe didn't plan right and they couldn't get out. You can't prove this. Who can prove the negative that if this had happened, she would have done the right thing them and your them the electrically right things and fought properly and it wasn't her faulted, Tk We open and reopen the investigation than close tat, and all of that- and there are some people- I think warm wildly irresponsible crazy, who are now suggesting that somehow call me was tricked into reopen The investigation through way cat fishing scheme to trap Anthony Wiener

Catherine, russian agent is responsible for convincing Anthony winter to start texting pretending that this he was a fifteen year old, and this is what got call me to reopen the investigation old. I mean forget that, but but the thing about these investigations also is that they morphine to other things like the Watergate investigation, was an investigation into a burglary at Watergate and the involvement of the Nixon Committee to re elect a president. Seventy two in this burglary and then, of course it turned into ten thousand other, and that is precisely my case is that the administration is trying to make this exculpatory claim about a conspiracy essentially here which isn't completely and unsupported, but is nevertheless a difficult case to make, in my opinion, a harder case to make, but

it resulted in all these other series of things that are popping up as people look into this claim, as the entire journalistic establishment looks into this claim. As all Washington is paralyzed by this claim, all of which stem from a tweet the Donald Trump set on a lark, because he happened to be watching Fox on Saturday morning, which you didn't think too much about it, because it was often next subject in ten minutes late and that this is led by a result, because EU migration, because the aid of of because the lie in the administration is whatever the President says, is true until he'd, until he makes it in inoperative operative Spiciest spent a week defending it encounter attacking, and then, of course you have. This, but here here, is where we started. We would know, for example, about all of my plans, finances or the band astrogation. If there wasn't a several weeks of speculation about all these things and reports on it in ok, but where we started this in my office

you know an hour, and a half ago before we came here was the question of what who who is benefiting- and I think it's very clear that the anti A trump side is winning. That is, say there is all kinds: appalling data over the last two weeks, showing a degradation of doll, trumps position in every pole, including the very friendly Rasmussen Paul, showing a drop of forty five to seven points of his general support and and more important for for these purposes, something like a ten to twelve percent drop in support. Among Republicans, that means that he's gone from like ninety two, eighty or ninety one. The eighty two word nine door, eighty nine two hundred and eighty three, but it's still outside the margin of error in a measurable decline in his republican support. This matters, because the republican support is his bow

if he loses, if he drops to seventy percent of sixty five percent of something, is that a republican support that illegally have no power on the hill. That only will Devin Nunes no longer have all that much reason to carry his water. For example, as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, but that you know that is where you start down of, where it's like a bolder rolling downhill. Every do piece of information will start that there's hostile to him will will will push that bolder faster once the once that support begins to leech the leaching. Go down and if he loses republican support, he is in total danger to forms of danger. One is those are the conditions under which, though the Democrats when the house and twenty eighteen, which I think has serve knowest point and and right now he is looking very much like he is engaging in the pattern that will help

I'm a crafts and hurt Republicans next year, it's early, but it's not that early right, we're now getting into the third month. So it's not that early and second, you know when the. If that were to happen, the possibility of him facing impeachment proceedings is very real. I'm? U still not not removal but removed from office, because that requires a two thirds vote of the Senate mouse, but but. A very real possibility of impeachment and he is doing this himself. That's the key! Imagine a world without that March, forced tweet. I mean I don't know what the world you like about the march. Fourth, three is not like the Russia investigation wouldn't be would be going nowhere and stuff would be coming out, none the less, but you know the thing, a bad thing,

fourth tweet was really that it was so far of the more. In fact it was so factually off base. I mean it was that the trunk, could have launched a counter attack. That said,. Look? We are the targets of an untoward witch hunt. Because X Y uneasy, because there are these, there are these Obama administration officials who have done these things that they shouldn't have done right and that should be looked into and make they could. They could have made a sort of a more sober counter narrative, but even though no one is making right case now, Please make that is Asia distinctly? There's you made it absolutely not no one's making that case there they're saying a very, very broad and convoluted argument about the nature of this single trying to make it a criminal offence where it's not right. No one saying, and no one who is responsible

saying that anything illegal happened here that was no less than above board. It's just that it was done in a way that we don't really know what could possibly before, with the exception of making people in the trunk administration. Look back, that's the responsible case. The trump side of this is saying we are being sabotaged by the last administration, which is seeking to completely rob of us of our authority. Its invites a virtual coup and that's not a phrase that I'm using Anita Just a baking up myself, I can't say how many people have heard say used the term crew to describe what's happening here. I end there. They are making it a very bright abroad, weird argument that can't be right but the very least what has happened in the last month, though, of course, a problem created by Trump him himself,

Has allowed a certain dust storm to develop muddying of the facts, complicating the story, and this is where its helpful, although we already, as I say with the data, suggest he's been hurt, the question is: has he been hurt? Less than might otherwise have been heard because of the classic. This thing about stove piping, we're stove piping information now in America, so the conservatives get different. Liberals, and so as long as there is a credible counter narrative for Trump supporters to believe in, which is that the media and the Democrats gang up to try to destroy trump use, nonsense about Russia. That's ridiculous that that's enough for them to hold on Two and meanwhile

The Democrats, liberals are you know already counting the child, counting the silverware in the White House kitchen for firm. You know my pants, I don't know like. I would be so much better for them by the way, in the end you now now get out, maybe well be that in political terms, they would be much better off with an extremely damage, trump them with a kind of resurgent MIKE pants, but whatever because they're so deep in the weeds about all believing every single possible terrible scenario. That could possibly be the case that you know that their as I said there already, I think well beyond into. I was on my nerves on panel this weekend with Records Burke of the new Yorker. Start up by saying that I just don't see how Trump last four years, what me that's a crazy way of looking at it right now,

There is no modality in which trump doesn't last four years unless he resides Emily. If you wouldn't like straighten up and fly right, calm down, stop this nonsense. You know focus on other stuff. He could certainly make sure that he doesn't lose the house and twenty eighteen and then there's no impeachment of Emily kids not thrown out of office. You know unless somehow there's a boot exposure of actual criminal act that everybody is unmistakable right, so we're out we if this is where the the mind of people who are not conservatives goes, is to get out. Well he's not even get em, make it through this term, that's a pretty low bar trump can beat. You know I mean if he just focus calms down. He think was the very least make sure that they don't that this disaster Roddam they do not get, but that he won't do by the way We want so he's. Gonna she's gonna serve this. You know it's gonna surf this unpredictability such that denotes today, Monday

like a wide thirty days since the since the tweet. I got him into trouble in what is he doing this morning's tweeting at the FBI? Yes, he's he's tagging FBI and is tweets I've only those away for the president to coordinate with his Justice Department outside social media, because there was a report on Foxen friends he liked about the but the end. Terrible land that wrangler. The other end of what you just outlined, which is the left, is sort of convincing itself of things that probably won't materialise and so they're going to be disappointed and the right as justice steeped in this exculpatory narrative, which doesn't really have a lot of supporting elements to it. We ve gone through all of them here and to say that this absolves, the trumpet ministration of whatever is discovered over the course of this investigation is completely bonkers. These are companies are two distinct situations. Whatever is investing.

In their view, the FBI, the USA, director resigning that haven't almost nothing to do with me. I'm asking you this information and it says you raise. It is as a kind of but Hilary argument, but it doesn't invalidate anything. That's been discovered, it doesn't change the subject. It's just something to occupy the minds of trumped offenders, but it's come a parallel and an unrelated to what we're talking about red, but it but it, but it does draw off some of the sum of the heat. Some of the energy charter is right for parties, but that's that's where there was a very clear way we're talking about here anyway. I haven't even have dont think these two piles of euro of equally distributed wage levels see that we don't know that yeah, but at em, if it if, if he's, continues to be harmed through April at say, so it's two months of trouble that you are just about the failure of the American Healthcare ACT but are about other stuff as well, then will now I mean it. We haven't even gotten into the whole what the hell happened with Devon newness in the White House and the two aids in the White House thing

which would help I'm gonna do ten seconds on that. Devon notice went to the White House to get intelligence, and then he went the next day, nominally too brief Donald Trump on the intelligence that he got, claiming that it didn't come from the White House, which suggests that the whole thing was a kabuki play in which the White House wanted Devon, noticed the House Intelligence Committee chairman to pretend that he got information on his own on this on masking scandal, rather than they themselves just releasing it and saying they had it on their own. Why? They wouldn't do this. It's not entirely clear, and this then got noticed crosswise of the other members of the House Intelligence Committee. Who said, why are you going round giving press conferences when you have knew what you claim to have new information? You haven't shared with us yet and you're also talking to tromp, who was possibly the target of all of this and you're telling him

but he is somehow exculpating by this intelligence. Before you tell us, the notice does not have a good argument for this. At all I mean it. Has no defence basically cause worst. He said he didn't get the information of the White House internet. He lied. He said he got it somewhere else. It turns out. He went to the White House grounds to get it sought. Sean Spacious, as we know, is the white. Has we dont track everybody on these? Eighty makers, which is preposterous. Anybody was gone to the White House, knows it tastes like getting herbs like you have to basically hand your mother's birth certificate in in order to get on the grounds and the passes that you get limit your access to different bill. Things are different areas and different building, so this is insane. Of course they knew he was there and all they would have TAT was searching things, chip away, at the side of the argument? They should, if you know them, but most people don't know them, but I most of our listeners know a lot of this

probably haven't been illuminated by this of also island holiday eyes. It's where this ridiculous wasting your time is this one of his gravel was entertaining. What can we do about this going Queen Garee dupe predictions on both sides, when one is once again showing where one second before that it does seem to me as the one side of this thing has organic developments that are fuelling the story. And the other side has contrivances and machinations that their developing to drive their side of the story, and that's what I see as being the big defining factors here is. One of these things is a cover effort and the other one happens to be reasonably does organically does developing elements of this story. Okay, so predictions Abe. Where will my ear My prediction- both sides get it

certain minor scalps there's through the wood What it's it's demonstrated that there were there, that there will be more untoward behaviour both in regard to that the trunk camp and the Russians and the over the Obama administration and the and the supposed sabotage effort, but neither peruse anything, conclusive or criminal, and we are mired in this sort fruitlessly for many many more months. That's my bet somewhere. Actions are basically someone will get blamed for the I'm asking. Somebody else will get blamed for Russia, bad, I'm sorry, but I'm not a bottom saying that there will be no. There will be no smoking gun on either side it'll be notes as a little at Han's will be exchanged stray sickly, but the, but the order of the chest gay will remain in a kind of stalemate. Ok, Noah! What's your protection? As I have said, it is a really terrible critic.

The only thing that comes out of these bread crumbs Are some really innocuous debatable developments that are only fatal as a result of the behaviour of their the their targets? Their targets behave in ways that are untoward to the point where their careers are and not by the nuggets of information that are revealed in these breadcrumbs that is what's going on. Do this administration in the event that anything really serious happens, won't big, because somebody from the Obama administration dropped the bomb on them little because they acted in a way that was untoward possibly illegal. I look at the very least, worthy of I honestly. I don't call that a prediction at all: that's not a prediction. I don't! I ain't your lan afford. Frankly, I think, as the next you to drop ok that of Orange housed in August twenty six teams. I don't know what that does the Trump administration when he was fired in August way. Sixteen, having said that, having said that, I will

because Abe insisted on going the prediction route and then chickened out by saying every one is punishing as the princess at the end of at the end of Romeo and Juliet, I will predict that Trump will tweet. Some absolutely crazy that will take everybody on a different wild goose chase in the next week, having realised that this wiretapping thing is running its course. He will throw this in yet another direction and blue aim somebody by may maybe he'll started and Susan Rice, maybe, and then you know, then Susan Rice's house will be surrounded by trump protesters and then you know, and then people will start big talking about houses and rice did this and that it was on their Benghazi and then, and then defend. Crucible will Susan. This raises a great patriot, MRS all racism, and we will,

then be in a three week, storm about Susan Rice, that that would be my my current production and basically everything remains terrible. That's all I'm, Everything remains terrible. If you are doing your pass over cleaning, please. I hope you haven't. We ve distracted you from removing you're from and if you aren't doing your pass over cleaning then ok, you so we come to an end of commentary magazine podcast, I'm I'm putting words were nor Rossman than a green wild. Keep the candle burning.