The revelations about how little Donald Trump paid in income taxes may be a central issue in tonight’s debate, but that could overshadow other issues that are more beneficial to Joe Biden and his party. What do the candidates need to do to “win” the first presidential debate?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine Daily Podcast, today's Tuesday September nights, twenty twenty, I am John Paul towards the editor of Commentary Magazine. I hope those we who observed Yom Kippur Poor had an easy fast. I did not. I was starving from at three o clock onward. It was really very, very grim grim seen here and I'm still, I'm basically got post traumatic, stress, disorder from it. So If I seem a little rattled today, that's that's why, but not rattled! We got Senora Christine Rosen looks very unravel hygiene
maybe a little rattled, but for other reasons associated nor Rossman, high Noah John Are you rattled only you're, not rattled, regularly, rattled, ok and never? rattled about anything executive, editor, a Green waldheim, John Rattle freak he's rabble free, ok, Speaking of rattling, how rattle do you think, Donald Trump campaigner by the New York Times story than the now to stories about his taxes, finances and money earning? So let me just put it this way: it's not! That destroys a whole lot it! Nothing! It's in no way is that a whole lot nothing. However, there is no such thing as tax avoidance. There is either tax fraud or there is using the tax code.
It is written legally to to pay the taxes that you legally up so either you consciously violate that through a fraudulent means, or you ignorantly violated by mistake, which is partially what sometimes, what audits are intended to discover and you're still on the hook for the money that you, oh, even if you didn't mean to not pay everything you o o. or you simply followed the law as it is written and paid as much as you were supposed to pay? There is no such thing as tax avoidance, everybody in the world paces much taxes they are legally obliged to pay.
Oh. Does the sleazy aspect of this story is the presumption that, though they could find no example of Trump committing fraud. The clear implication of the story is that what he did and how he and how he did it was somehow criminal and that I think, is sleazy, although it is certainly very interesting and very much worth a subject worthy of discussion that he had been a pink seven hundred and fifty dollars and taxes and twenty sixteen and twenty seventeen, the fact that we would know if, release is tax returns. The way almost every major politician has done since that nineteen sixty eight election, I think when Richard Nixon were released, all of his tax returns. because and the net it turned out by the way that Nixon O the IRS like hundreds of thousands of dollars, but he.
Least them, and then he paid what he Odin other interesting things came from that so anyway? That's that's my general overview. View of this is either eight committed a crime or say he didn't commit a crime. You can't can't sleaze the notion that, because he did what was legally in his interests and legally about allowed to do that, he did somehow did something wrong Guy, don't think that's the sleazy part of the story of a lot of this was known previously. The death rate, what he paid in income tax is offset by losses as the appearance of being improper, though it's not illegal, but the sleazy stuff is the extent to which the implication is in the story that he profited off the presidency. There is some twenty six million and unexplained. Can.
Nothing fees from work done in Azerbaijan, his effort to reduces taxable income by treating family members as consultants to his son to the business philippine leader, rubber Rodrigo to tear choosing special envoys to see yet, to trim tower in Manila and apparently in Argentina, a key person who have been involved in the Uruguay and licensing deal that Mr Trumpery two point. Three million on was appointed to a cabinet, post, arms and Turkish airlines choosing from National Golf Club and Suburban Virginia to hosting event only after they cancelled event when Turkish American, their relations? a low point over the armenian issue, etc, etc. So
The implication here is that the does that Trump has been benefiting financially from the presidency as it, in short of it, in a tropic way, just the existence of his businesses and his susceptibility to being influenced by foreign powers. Patronising these this is creating a conflict of interest. Now is that a legal gap if you really have you really, where actual proven, Amalekites violation here. Yes, that would be a cancer by elation of constitutional duties. They don't go so far as to allege that clearly and in print, but that is- application. So you're saying that this is something sleazy that trump dead. That is in the story that they dont highlight in the story. That's what you're saying I mean I highlighted: how can I read everything? One other thing is: the story is focused as follows.
He likes hey, seven are in fact the right, he paid seminars, fifty dollars and taxes, and the clear implication is that he did something wrong by only paying seventeen fifty dollars in taxes. The problem is here: there did something illegal or didn't now this other stuff goes somewhere else, but that is not what they chose to highlight and that is not it's gonna be discussed and has been discussed for the last twenty four hours. A day also chose to highlight his reported losses, and that was interesting to me because I had the feel of ACE Personal hit that the times very much wanted to get under his skin by calling him a bad business. Man and you know not not the higher earner that he brags about being on which in some sense sacrifices their story of his being sleazy and not paying what he owes
because if he really didn't make money as they imply, then he doesn't o taxes if his losses are also great so that Here's an interesting historical parallel thing that I think anybody is really pointed out in the late sixties. A minimum tax was created that we now know as the alternative minimum tax, which a lot of people have to pay if they have a lot of freelance income The reason that it was created- and it was created by Lyndon Johnson- was created in the mid too late sixties by a largely by Lyndon Johnson, was that they needed more that govern. Needed more money because it was doing the guns and butter strategy of fighting Vietnam and Fair wildly expand are the social safety net and
the head of the IRS. I believe at the time basically said we need this tax because there are a hundred and five hundred and fifty five of the richest people in America pay no tax because they use the deductions and various eyes, tat, shelters and things in the tax code and they manipulate them and therefore they pay no tax and everybody has to pay tax. So we are going to create a minimum tax, essentially a flat tax for very rich people that they are going to have to pay. And that word out fifty years into this regime and there's a lot of trouble with the Us Herman on task, as it seems unfair to people cause it. People get trapped in it and all of that. But this was a real thing that the that the the tax code was created and then all of these incentives structures
to do various things with business, to help business. To do things that Congress decides at some moment, it thinks is, God is good and should be supported, or you know basically at the least subsidize through tax advantages and then that channels money in that direction, because people say well I'd rather take my chances fooling around and fucking rail attack shelters than just having the money to the government cousin, If I may profit, I can do this and all of that, and then we have these kinds of results that Trump clearly has taken advantage of his whole career.
Which is that if you lose a colossal amount of money, you can then offset that against your games. And then you don't have to pay taxes in that that year, though, you may have to pay taxes and subsequent years or whatever. If we don't want this to happen, there is a very simple answer to this problem in owed its called the flat tax, the flat taxes, everybody, the country, pay twenty percent. There are no deductions, there's nothing bit done that, and this by Democrats has considered the most awful idea ever because it's not progressive. right and taxation should be rest of rich. We all should be more than poor people and so on, and that that makes that makes perfect sense. We got you in this country. We have a very progressive tax code right now, but to have that in all of the different complications, and that tax code
You also then introduce all of these ways of getting around it. The tax professionals device for for the people who can afford to higher there hire them for their services. I mean honestly, Anita meant! If you really angry about the story, you should be lobbying. The House Ways Means Committee which tries to test. How am I to points so that I think are interesting in it at a moment what some estimates sailing? Eighty five percent of the american public has already made up its mind, who is going to vote for this election? This didn't have the gotcha October. Surprise, is half that one would think it should have had agree with no about the amendments issues as her concerning, but I wonder about the messaging, especially as we go into this debate tonight, because Joe Biden idea, like he's Scranton Values- and you know every day, common man versus Park, avenue tromp with his inner tax loopholes. It
not exactly a narrative, but it's not one based in fact, because all those park avenue people are actually funding buttons campaign, like he's actually can who of Park Avenue in Wall Street, I mean it's very clear who they are putting their money behind in this election. So I do wonder if that message will land means of wonderful debate, zinc right? You only paid this amount of money and then Trump might not be sophisticate enough to come up with a decent respond the heat of the moment to it, but this idea that somehow Biden is is not the kind of politician who, having been in Washington for decades and having you know, had his own family related Griffiths for years. Isn't gonna continue doing that? Just as you know, they all do it I'm this is. This is a kind of a partisan thing. It's it's. What tromp ran against and twenty sixteen as an outsider and can't as an insider time, but I don't find the buying message compelling on this in terms of like he's, Mr Scranton, at the look we fight spent forty years practically representing
the attack, shelter state. Thank the United States in the set of all but where is economically is attacked, shelter. It's a serious attack should now fine, I mean I'm not. That is all legal ran it it, but if, if Biden were Bernie just to give you an example, Bertie could crush Trump like a bug with stuff. Like this I mean you know, two different kinds of politicians can do. Different kinds of things and I think Biden will probably crush him like a bug anyway, because to explain Trump will say, I believe, a dozen who knows what you say, but he will say yeah. I was smart. This way said in TWAIN. Sixteen new ones so do anything illegal I've not done anything illegal. I did what the tax code allowed me to do. That's what you do, that's what everybody does, and so I'm brilliant
that's stupid and that's why I know how to run this country, because I understand how things really work. I don't. I don't think any. This is winning message for Joe Biden really, No, I honestly don't lie exclaimed arrival being progressively enlivened by this progressives. One seemed over the throat what Joe Biden campaign has been. All about has been being a milk toasty, sort of warm grandfather, early, ephemeral, version of a precedent that exists only in the minds of fiction writers and like errand Sorkin types, He was if he has to go on to the end the attack and make caresses really happy by espousing progressive values. What have you it doesn't do anything for him underlying mission, which has to do with Democrats want to see the most, which is the two biggest issues on democratic minds according to abolish all this morning. Dovetails with other pulse corona virus by a mile.
By uniting the country desert top two issues for Democrats, Republicans its economy and crime what but a much lower rates likes that one third of Republicans versus like two thirds of Democrats about those issues, jet two thirds and fifty percent I'm so it Joe Biden has to do is be the uniting candidate. He's gonna be the big guy. If he goes out, he can defend himself, he can Perry and he can thrust a little bit, but he can't be too pointed. Oh, I don't agree. I don't agree that you can't be pointed and still be, the good guy you can be hopefully pointed and still be, the good guy just depends on how your point that first of all, there is no way that relative to Trump and if you're, not Hilary, the most dislike of a person on the planet, earth you're, gonna, look more likeable. The question is whether you look we or milk toe. DE or or or kind of like you, don't have any real life to you, but you'll see
we look like you're, a better guy. I mean, I think it's the whole point about the Republicans and twenty sixteen. When Trump kept you know likes, I smashing them in the debate, even though we didn't really quite know. That was what was going on is that they didn't want somebody they liked. I mean that what they liked was his aggression. What they liked was his nastiness, what they like to his his all right enough for this crap. I'm sick of this crap you're, all full of this politician crap and I'm sick of it, and it is not clear that that is what the american people want. In twenty twenty, in fact, so Biden has running room to go on the attack and be not like he can in a Reagan was very good at this. Not that he's Reagan, but it's not like Reagan, wasn't tough on Carter until Carter said what he said and then Reagan went there, you go again.
You know that was that there is a great our friend territory who spent on Pakistan has a great peace in city journal, which I recommend to people who are about to launch the debate tonight about sort of previous presidential debate and, in particular the whole class of people who help prep president's front debate. as some great anecdote about Reagan, Carter and, for I mean day one of the things he points out, though, is that Reagan? didn't do well when he was trying to be specific about things and was only after Roger L sat down and then stick to your themes. You just go with your. Stick to your themes that will connect anything. They say just turn into If your themes and that's when he was able to kind of revive wisdom, getting sound away that that that was effective. And so I wonder, if I mean Trump kind of was one sort of later in the primaries, and then he became a little bit different. Winning went up again still really stuck to those themes and it did work like she had all policy details in her little. You know she obviously super prepared in a strange student, and he knew no damn Lester Bunches, hammering as themes and not
even engaging on the details of policy and just you know, obviously making stuff up which is when he does but rhetorically. It was quite effective there. And then and then insulting or I might. But the thing was remember all the poles. After those debates there were three debates of all the pulse said that Hilary cleaned up She one sixty forty in the in the post debate Paul's, so I dont think I mean you know I dont think trumpeted particularly again. I think when we look at this election in twenty Sixteen and the only way to really understand it is call me on October 28th I mean you know absent call me on October 28th there was no clear trajectory by which Hillary's vote was going to collapse. A little bit in the last week in the Trump was going to you know basically thread
Evelyn and get through. So in the absence of a call me thing and then the question is: is this the call me thing for Trump in the sense that you paid seven hundred and fifty dollars that you say you're, a billion Erin you paid solar and fifty dollars and taxes. Is that fair? Is that fair? Mr President, you think that where that is not a country? You want to run the here's where their heads Donald Trump would agree with that right. You, his his political instincts, are toward a populist appeal which would lead him to instinctively agree with that position on can't. But whatever responses can cook up is gonna be insincere right because he would believe that get you should be paying or in taxes that What he's been that's where his his heart is. Really, I don't see it that way at all. I mean that has John said he's in twenty. Sixteen, he said not paying a lot in taxes. Isn't isn't bad, it's smart
I'm honest your items at more. That was his defence. You know by the way you on the point of going after Trump aggressively and are Republicans having not wanted and nice person and want to disturb nasty person. There is a challenge, therefore Biden, I think, because when you try to play his game. Trumps gaming you you are lowered automatically week. We saw that with the Republicans, whose sort of got fed up with the nastiness and tried to counter it on on trumps terms, and it they want each one, successively was taken down by that to one degree or another covered Biden. Isn't that Biden has debated at a national level? Biden debated Sarah Palin, any debated, Paul,
any cleaned, Paul Ryan's clock. This is why, in twenty sixteen and twenty seventeen I said, they said Biden is the guy aside from Oprah who should be the democratic Domini and that Biden. and beta mistake by pushing Hilary not letting bide run because
if you remember what he did to to Paul Ryan, he scoffed at him. He laughed in his face Ryan would say: well we want data very earnestly and then Biden would giggle. He would giggle scarf and then he set out at a lotta malarkey and all that he was disrespectful. He was condescending, he was of noxious and it was devastating now its eight years later. He's playing a different game as Noah says, he's playing, but that's the real by the jerk. Is that all this? Mr empathy, any calls people with stutters and all of that fight
whatever. That's, not the Joe Biden, anybody new in Washington for thirty years, what they knew was. He was the blabber mouth tiresome blabber mouth angry as I did thin skinned kind of moron but kind of nice and remembered everybody's name, and you know he was the centre from this tiny. Eight that were once you get into office, you never leave office and so, whatever biting didn't changes personality in the last eight years. Unless you know, unless he's like had such deep cognitive decline, that he no longer has any aggression well, you know, that's very entered by the week. I remember- and this is my response to that debate with Paul Ryan, I was horrified I mean I was shocked that it was effective forbidden ultimately, because I remember watching it thinking. This is absolutely atrocious because you have to say Paul Rainest as different a debating
opponents from Trump as one could be- I mean you know, Ryan was actually being respectful and speaking in terms of facts in numbers and figures, and was was getting that sort of treatment. I don't I don't know what it looks like against Trump do button Al Gore. I remember though, one of the Bush coordinator- I don't ever which one but he was complete leave. Room like he was literally rolling, as I remember thinking guys, like he's like a little pause a teenager who, just you know about it, be grounded and centre is real. I mean he was just use, sighing and rolling. Isn't that didn't play well that every pupil earlier right? So here's the thing out? There is something wrong with Al Gore only one of the things that those debate showed was a there's something wrong with Al Gore. He his responses to say he's in the moment were weird and so
you could change them on a dime, so he was condescending. I rolling in one debate and then he was excessively cautious and and and was now having watched the debate and you'd have they made a watch. So he would know what he did wrong and then he changed up and then he tried to be a different personal at there were something off about him like that. What was not, it was not genuine to him right, so Trump is Trump and he is genuine and when he was, you know, sir, by being trying to stated stick to his points and twenty. Sixteen. He stuck to his points. He didn't like go totally hog while, but then he did say I would send you to jail tailoring. He walked around behind or try to rattle her. All of that Gore try to do that to Bush. Do remember this year, Gore like walk
round to Bush and that one of the great he looked like a moment of all times. You walked over to Bush and Bush looked at him and nodded and then we're not like oh hey how you do it and then like went on talking. It was a fantastic ball because it's like this kind of a crazy person over here, but just you know, he's a nice guy. It's fine we'll go on whatever. Now. These debates are a matter very much indeed. A way. They're gonna matter is if they do something to harm by whatever. I think it s a pretty interesting thing, because you had that really physically aggressive performance by Al Gore- and I ve been talking about this really theatrically aggressive
hormones by Joe Biden. An gonna give you seen allow that where, where they don't wear the first debate with Obama and roaming and the first debate between Clinton and Trump, both Clinton and Obama, criticized extensively for not being aggressive enough because it was see that they lost those first debates. Writer didn't over perform in the morning after Obama was the press was full of
reports about among the promising a more aggressive approach in its next to date, with its roundly, which you definitely delivered, and Hillary Clinton going very personal about sexism, and what have you in the second ninety minute debate that they had so the incentive serve toward an aggressive display, even though what you're saying is it backfired for our Gore didn't backfire for Joe Biden? So the press wants to see aggression depression. I don't think it's just the press. I think that what you want to see is engaged person who ll like there. The kind of person that you wouldn't mind having on your tv screen for the next four years, I mean I, I dont, how else to describe that. But what Al Gore, you know becomes a comic character on essential as a result of the first they would that slow, draw Lee Lock, Box blocked.
Bob LAW, all of that stuff you're, like I don't know. If I want to watch that guy for the next four years. Remember him, though he almost one the pragmatists was a tie. President was a tie election, so you know it's not like he killed himself raising like that. But that's the issue here is there's no winning in there's no losing, except I mean look. What was that wrongly gave? I think the most single devastating debate of the first debate with wrongly, and why was that? Because everybody it had this idea of Romany and then he comes up and he is smart. He smoothed he's good. Looking his eloquent he's he's tough without being hostile Obama was lazy and sloppy and unengaged and demo, That's all panicked, and so did I
Burma and every Republican Unearth went. Oh my god! Maybe we can win this thing. I I didn't even know that I what was even sure that was even possible if somehow Trump isn't Romney. I know it's weird cause he's the president, but if somehow and then and then it settled down and Bromley didn't win sleep, but if Trump doesn't do something where you say, I don't care what the media say. He won this debate. It will be a failure for him well. I mean he asked a win, the debate. He is behind it. We are- and we now have two poles yesterday- that have em down between nine and twelve points in Pennsylvania. If it doesnt win Pennsylvania. He does not when the presidency, what there's also a strange thing? That's happened, even even since twenty sixteen, I think, but it
The same sort of revealed this more startling than any previous presidential election, in that we most of the time that we consuming politics in this country is listening to people about the cannon right. We don't actually have as much direct if you dont really feel like your hearing from your president or the presidential candidates, all that much directly, it's their people, it's the its upon the talk receipts, pseudo cable, and in some ways I feel like people only watch at least some of the people. I know only watch the debates to actually either have the stereotypes we already have in mind endorsed by their but by the actual life behaviour of the candidate or to be surprised, I think, trumps surprised every one in twenty sixty when he debated Hillary Clinton people and follow the primary debates. Obviously, but when he, when he was debating Clinton, they washed- and he was surprisingly effective. That doesn't mean you necessarily like timorous policies but I do feel like someone, people who consume political com, to do so on the out on the margins and listen to everybody's opinions, and I do think there still there
possibility for both Biden and trumpeted surprise, either positively or negatively, depending on what they do. But that's why I mean that's why we too need right to see if, if Joe Biden is comparatively you no compromise, and if Trump is gonna, just fly off the handle and be twitter trump or, if he's gonna It is what you are you I mean this is there's a lot of room for anything to happen on either side, particularly in this case. I was talking to someone last night, so I'm not gonna watch the debate, because I can't stand the debates because it's all it's all, can't no one answers the question, directly, and you know you could see the messaging and the avoidance of the issues, and I said but this this is not necessarily what you're gonna get tomorrow night, meaning. Tonight I mean this is this- is there's nothing short of business as usual that this debate- and I think, but both men in their own ways are such wildcard going into this. That that we don't know is, as you know, is by
can be absolutely on his game and and shot us that way or is, he goes you have a moment or several them or its trump going to be. somehow shockingly in command in the way that he kind of was for some of the Hilary encounters. So it's an important to remember why don't trump was effective and this is the reserves and hardly scientific but really interesting experiment that was done to challenge people's perceptions about how these two guys performed on Visa, the business school in said so they had professional actors, portray Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton line for line moment for a moment, gesticulation for gesticulation but reversing the genders so that Hillary Clinton was played by a man and Donald Trump was played by a woman and this audience that press that was,
Primitive. This experiment found their perceptions to be challenged in ways that were surprising to them an audience members found Donald Trump and the voice of a woman to be more precise, whereas hills Clinton's caution and timidity and portability was deemed by at least one audience? Member punishable was a demonstration of how the condescension that the left expected from Hillary Clinton in which she delivered, didn't work for her and hardly had anything to do with sex, but sanctimonious I got a job. I was gonna turn in a kind of formats. Look let's be real here. Ok, it's twenty twenty! We can say we said it. Then we could say it now without caution. Hillary Clinton was a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful candidate. She was,
ass. She was deceitful. She was dislike of all her policy. Prescriptions were not credible, her her. She could never overcome the very real sense that a great many p. had that she was only sitting there because her husband had been president and she in an effort to retain her connection to power, allowed him to richly humiliate her in front of the America
people in the world because she wanted to grab at the big brass ring and her own behaviour with her emails and various other things then led to her own personal downfall. So Biden is running as the most generic democratic candidate, the most generic party candidate, that, as ever run for any office. He has generic Democrat. He is, he states most of the policy prescriptions of the party, but in a milk toast way he is not here
not pushing an agenda. He is representing at agenda. He is that not trump he is generic Democrat and, under those conditions, Trump pass the labour to make him anything, but this kind of mirrored vessel and if he can do that, maybe he'll have an opportunity to make up this ground. Maybe, but it's not so easy, because Biden isn't represent by isn't I'm the first woman, I'm I'm, I'm I'm up there on the vanguard, we're changing everything binds like. I don't want to change anything except the trajectory that were on right now with this one guy. So if you want that, I'm here and to everybody who would have voted for the any Democrat he's like I'm talking about the environment,
talking about me too. I'm talking about black lives matter of. Do it and I know she's kind of like what Dole said right. Where Bob Dole said I can be concerned. If that's what you want me to be, you know, and so that's the slippery. That's where Trump is that one of the reasons Trump is having incredible difficulty getting purchase on Biden. Is that Biden isn't anything that ordinarily? That would be a terrible thing when you're running for president to be nothing except, the Trump is too much How much he? It's all him! It's too much like they come up with a story on Sunday night. What happened on Saturday, Amy Coney Baron was announced in this triumphant moment.
Now, she's gonna be an afterthought at this debate, because the cheapest and forty five minutes on his gods have taxes. I mean you know there is no getting away from Trump, and so all Biden is like is: can you take this any more? Can you and it just seems, every pull the comes out everywhere says people seem to have add enough. I mean I'm not saying that it's good, I'm not saying that it's bad, I'm not saying it's unfair. You know, and people want to say this is so unfair terms, but treated so unfair. The saw, because he's been treated unfairly by the media. I agree, that, like this story, is garbage right. I mean it's like garbage in the sense that its fascinating it's well reported. They got a leak of but an unprecedented and likely just a felony as we should do, is a felony act by yeah So, your member all that publishing Hilary Females was a fellow
and therefore I know are the Dnc leak was a fellow. Yet nobody should publish a write about it at all. Somehow that doesn't come up here, but you know it's like you can't there's no, there's no escape it. It's like people want some air they'd like a little air, and so an trump doesn't know that, like he can't know that it's everything that he can't know so he will likely, I think, miss risk respond, wrongly Noah sort of said what he should say. I think which, as you know, what it's terrible that I paid seven hundred fifty dollars and taxes, it was legal but
The country would be better served that hedge fund guys and I people like be paid more taxes at an grat. How? Why didn't you, Joe in your decades in office, do something about the tax code has the president? Can I say that when you presided over the first reformation of the tax could in the generation and half way can say Joe Biden has Joe Joe did, disappeared in the reformation of the tax. I don't know how we voted on tax reform, a meaning, as in the Senate, the biggest tax reform bill. You know, I'm twenty seventeen, one thousand nine hundred and eighty six, the tax reform. One thousand nine hundred and eighty six was the year. That was the. I was in the Senate, so I just want to say how he felt it because of course he always voted wrongly on everything. As as we as we know. So, you know, I think them
tat, hadn t trump can say this is wrong and it should be changed and up the Congress to change it and Joe Biden also well, you presided over the tax reform from seventeen one change. It then and then download troubled Parian go after jawbone voting record in everybody's eyes. Will glaze over a neuron will remember a single moment. Frenetic strange well Biden can I voted. I just looked it up. You voted for tax reform, a nineteen eighty six, so you know what that data. Oh loopholes and closed real estate loopholes and we been close enough of them as it turns out, because you you gonoph
You went in you stole a billion dollars from the american people, with these nonsense losses that you claimed or whatever ok habit. The other aspect of the story, which is this whole question of whether or not he paid in an effort to escape the gift tax or some version of it. You know he paid Ivanka, seven hundred and seventy thousand dollar consulting free. That's not good, because he can say I needed Ivanka of a loan of all people on earth to do this for seven hundred and seventy thousand dollars, but you're, not you know again by then can say you go to your parents cuz. You want to borrow money for your first home and they scrambled a scrabble together, twenty thousand dollars to give it and only fifteen thousand. That is, if you don't, they have to pay taxes on that other five thousand. Well, guess what your parents would hire you with a
because if they hire you was a consultant. I can give you anything you not paying. Taxes on an abiding is not exactly, I don't think that's. I don't think he wants to go there because he was literally, as vice president, giving hunter rides on air force two to go, make no extreme, I won't let him deals for himself and buttons, others things too, I mean he's he's is in deep in that and that sort of graft that that's done in Washington, the swamp type suffered. The trunk vowed to clean up, and in fact only the late in your parliament. Building on you, I don't know, he's not as deeply into it to be. That is, gonna, be trumps response to any and every leading situation about about trumps dirty dealings. Now too rich, Joe Biden will appeal to the depths of all despair and describe has expired, as a young widower and the loss of bow and the attack is entirely neutral. if you don't pay rattled, if it doesn't under his skin.
The investment get him to look, he's been doing more debate, prep than any human being as ever if he gets, or our napping, we're, not sure or both anyway. Here's another interesting thing. What we have seen this year in in in in the corona scan of depression and the response of things is this kind of withdrawal from institutions that are trying to kind of like get something going. During the during this period, right so take sports. So there has been this base.
I started basketball play offs, are going football started, no one's watching, I mean not no one, but basically there is twenty percent declines, an audience across the board or more for these sports another. Where there's no fans, they affect noise, they have those bizarre stena, like did cutouts in the stands. So it's kind of discomfitting to watch or whatever. Traditionally, the debates are wildly watched, tens of millions of people, sixty seventy eighty million people, two million people are something watch the Bush toward the first wish for debate. I believe that some some crazy number like that. What if nobody watches what, if nobody watch a hack, is entirely possible that no one's gonna watch this. I think that sport has become egregiously politicize witches
or maybe politics will become more of a sport and people will wash it for entertainment, I mean- maybe not only with the primary debates were not always while lodged and we wash them, but I think I don't know. I think people well tuned in when let's go and on the other eye to eye with you Christine in so far as we seem pulling saying, professional sports support for rational ports is down by double the judge, primarily among Republicans and independence, because their sick and tired of politics that you were born bordered with during this during the performance after the performance during the commercials. It's all politics all the time. So I gave people turn out of this debate. A win. Surprise me at all, because politics fatigue is very real and it has everything to do with you bit witty of this presidency and the big witty of. Did they progressive effort to transform politics- and a society wide eat those not just something that happens in Washington, but certain happens when you by your favorite brand. When you go to your life,
a social events. Its politics is everything. So yet if people are turning out of politics, has every reason for its politics is everywhere. So why would you want to turn to an into an explicitly political event? I think last the debates in TWAIN. Sixteen got like eighty four million people, which was, I think, a record I could be wrong. John said: the record was seventy thousand, but the eighty four million people is ridiculous amount of evil adult debts good. That's a country, it's a fifth of the country and like maybe more than half of our many people actually vote. Yes in this country, let you know It was just a wooden shocking to see a lower debate on here, because we ve seen of lower debate Orleans during the primaries, and maybe this is different, but I just think people are sick and tired of politics becoming this
You bet with this thing that invests every aspect of life. Oh, I think we'd like them to be sick and tired of it. I think I think they feed on it. Sadly, but even if they say the posters, even if there is a law debate audience, I think, be made up for in the fact that there is a different version of viewers ship now too, with that can't be avoided, which is that, even if you don't turn into the debate, you will have clips of it pushed you over the next day and the following week on whenever you go online whenever you are, whenever you turn on the tv, whenever you know it's and it'll check, see you down the moments from the people vote, but you will be forced to watch them one way or another on social media on tv,
with a big email whatever it is, I mean everyone ends up having to having to watch to be fair. I think that's always been true of the debates. I mean more people, you know if you, if you were watching the Hillary Clinton Rick. Audio debate in two thousand when lousy I walked over and all of us as individuals. Guess walked over to her and asked her of the hand, hand or a piece of paper and then the whole idea was she. He invaded her personal space. It was an invasion of persons. Oh my god right! Well, not that many people watched it at the time, but the
framing of the clip, which was look at lousy, Ignacio invading Heller. His personal space became the only thing that matters from that debate and he basically as goose, was cooked after that, because he invaded her personal space by walking over it
and the hand or a piece of paper- and I know you can't hear an ideological in a piece of paper- I mean anybody felt threatened by reptiles. He always not does not have the summit to be a leader of his rights. Not only are they are. That was my point. Is that was twenty years ago? So so this this is the only people. Remember things like there, you go again or I pay for this microphone, mister, green or whatever, because they saw the clip over and over and over again. So though point is that I am suggesting that there is a general withdraw all that corona has created it. Maybe maybe you're right that it's because there's too much politics and that's the thing or maybe it's just like- I can barely get out of bed in the way, guy can't even like life sucks. What am I gonna do watch ninety minutes of a debate between them: Ass, Emmett, Anna senile person, like that, that's what I mean
to do tonight. You know that's, that's my that's mighty of a good time and if it, if I'm right about this, I had no idea at the time. But God only knows if I'm right about this, but won't that call into question this whole notion that we are going to see turn out like we have never seen before, Amber. Ok, no is making a face like us, because were there not visual? I just wanna explained that I would just made the m, what's her name, Mikhail, ah, bobby- I am- I came up here yesterday- underscored. Remember my tail, the Michaela, the gym this face when she didn't get the gold yeah anyway. So no, it doesn't like that about the turn out. Why well, because ninety minutes of your time is a bigger investment than about not really cause. It's gonna. Take you, you know when you go.
You actually go on election day to vote. You're gonna be standing like two miles from the voting machine. you know everyone here to present the rendering you're pretty science, most I'd say urban areas. Yes, most of the countries is by no means that honours. No, it's because of social distances. Because he ever was established in the primary hardening here there was no social distancing. no, it's just the low traffic, but there's not supposed to be low traffic. That's the whole point they're supposed to be a hundred and fifty million people voting there's not low track. If, if, in fact, this is a turnout election of the sort that we saw like two thousand eight, then there is no no place will be low. Traffic and you're gonna have to stand very much separate.
And go veto thousands of blocks- maybe that's weird- I mean we ve, never seen any pull indicating. There's apathy about the outcome of this election fact A lot of energy around. It would suggest there would be high turnout, any that's. How manifesting in in view of ship of these. So again, minutes does those are conflicting, conflicting data points, I'm with AIDS theory that actually people will feel they have consumed the important part in the debate. By watching whenever dinner, there crazy idea sends them on Facebook the next day and not just I'll, go down that social media wormhole in and get the gist of it, but it will be filtered through the echo chamber that they already and have it in a lot of ways. There's this feeling in an id advance of these events that miss it doesn't matter because under its gonna come at me anyway, and then I'm up. Can I make a personal confession about tonight and why? What what? What I am anxious?
tonight, for so, as you guys know, or people with, maybe it is you guys know, but people made it so I stopped a tweeting in March of twenty nineteen and I have not I've not posted a tweet since March of twenty nineteen, but there is nothing that I loved so much as tweeting on debate nights, I loved I loved tweeting on debate nights. I loved the choking and the the kind of trading of quips and making fun of other twitters, and all of that- and I am going to be going through intense withdrawal, I'm cool sing to this now as a means of may ensure that I do not break. Am you know that I don't have a moment. You know it's, you know it's like any, like any other addiction right,
I'm gonna take a day by day, and you gotta say it's not today, so I'm saying publicly not today, because I just love it. That is what our tax majestically way ass, well ass, his our game, but that the problem is the three of us are not as as as witty as all of Twitter combined It's not you, it's not that it's just will you should a lot of it is just a matter of events. Garland adds bad it's bad anyway, so they ve never onion, there's. Another reason why that was so. Enjoyable is because there's there's an atmosphere on that platform that, during those events, that is much less serious unless sanctimonious lively and there seems to be a little bit more time. Duration for experimentation, as opposed to notice, reciting, just reciting dogma and talking point something you'll get you don't get the kind of feedback that you get from
On normal days for people who are so very serious about everything, I guess but I mean I do have to say that I I am I'm reasonably sure that I I did something that was very valuable for me personally, I'm not talking about other people by getting off when I did, because the last out of the last eighteen months on twitter have been terrific, and it is the I mean everything that was bad about the plan warm has has deepened and gotten more intense and whatever was good about. It has very much receded into the background that I am not sure that it is still true that maybe on these nights there is still an element of them of playfulness blood like there was
because this notion that we are now living at a moment in history of which we could be seeing our democracy crumble before our eyes, because voters refused to do what liberals want them to do, has driven. So many nice has largely made people sort of like boring humorless and repetitive: Amano, maniacal and annoyingly pomp in there you know assertions of their own virtue and attacks on the on the evil of Trump. But it is dreamed all the whiteness out of everything. So it's like one things where you could say genes and I stated aim it's like it will never be a nice day until the day till the evil in the houses extirpated where it you know, I was
did I mention this last week. I'm sorry has now I'm getting all, but there was this work and I would dropping my kit off with it. They were afraid of lives on our block to walk to school, so he lives across the street. So woman comes out of her building walk with her walking her doctor that her door Ben says well, you know good morning, Missus Smith how're you this morning and she's like I'm, worried that our democracy is crumbling seven thirty in the morning and then the door men says like with a smile on his face. Well, I thought I was happening already and then she says, but we're gonna get it back a rude, we're getting it back for going to take it back and I was like so this is basically happening everywhere. It's like people are now talking to each other in in casual exchanges like David from
retweeting MAX boots. I mean it's like my head: is gonna explode stocks and call them That's like that for libraries, another twitter reply that I should never be the replies to that's. That's you being your forest into reading the comments section. Didn't they business? That's a signal never read the comments with such a great thing, and now no one has comments and work as websites don't have continent. That's why over the year on Twitter is become more toxic, has fewer places have Lino Eleanor needed debate exactly right! Well, I we will reconvene tomorrow morning to tell you that who won and we'll be right or will be wrong or no one will have one and then the election will happen. I will let me just actually, let's take two more minutes to talk about this one thing: if you
believe that poles are not all wrong. Trumps done, he's done his behind by nine in pain. Maybe he's down in literally every battleground state, though in Florida is only down by one but he's dead in Michigan he's down in Wisconsin he's dead, he's down in the three states that he talked to Annie's down, Iowa and he's down in Arizona he Heil and Ohio, or he's there there, the easy there down or type right, you're, very close in Ohio? So he's done so here's the one thing that everybody I know says who were really follows as closely as the one hope the Trump has is that there is a world of non voters that he has reached. Who are going to vote for him? Who, by definition, therefore can be seen in pulling because polling works on
registered voters, and particularly likely voter screens all involve people who have voted before, and so his only hope. His hope is that he has done this and it's just invisible and The pollsters are not wrong right. It's just that polling does not cannot inclined to this possibility that non voters become voters and then vote, because that has not been a pattern pretty much ever work it out. Even a voting has increased over the last fifteen years. The number of Americans vote. How? How likely is it out? How much do you get, because if it's not
true, then we're gonna talk about this for a month and then Trump is gonna lose because unless something happens, but you know, the stability of binds numbers are staggering. You know if you could draw basically draw straight line practically from April of twenty nineteen to now with him over Trump anywhere between four and ten points and trumpets. You know so that it able anything because, like you're more inclined to think this than I think it's possible reminds me of one. Chris won't was Andy the podcast and he said, look there's going to be some big thing that the Poles get wrong, You don't know what that big thing is. Could it be that could it also be that the popularity nationally of black lives, better,
And these revolutionary activism generally is declining in the public's view steadily, regardless of of how the very same people say, they're going to vote, I dont know, I think it's I think it's possible, You know, I don't want the pole, we have the Poles and that's that's all. We have to go on, but you know it's like a breast even said in its most recent column. If it were only that, then we would. We would know every election in advance without question and and that's not the way works. Look. I love Brett. That column did have a slight tom friedmann and the taxi driver quality to it. Since Eve NOS one person, what and bring him back a whole store, but I mean it was it it's a good com. You should read it in the times today his his interview with an unlikely trump loader and the question of whether or not she represents
islet majority. The thing is it: you just have so many poles that are functioning inside you now in who are showing the same thing, but their clearing different people. They have slightly different models. They fly different screens slightly different weights, and it's just nothing is coming up trumps way. So look if this means that the wrong, and pulling this is the end of polling them cause. You know if it if an entire election turns seven points in the wrong direction against polling, then Paul. Then we'll know will will will no longer cease to be a viable way to understand how an area like astrology drama that have brought us here, there are some who are. You will that's already been demonstrated by twenty sixteen terms of the staple. I mean
while some of this day, Polyborus member state, there was actually less day Paulie when there is now in part, because National Pauling, you know was seen as or in a determined ever whatever a stay. Polly was more expensive I don't know, but you know, like nobody was pulling Michigan here. That was part They were calling Wisconsin and Pennsylvania pretty extensively. There were times, in which there was no time in which the president led Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. Before in. I think it There was one pole and line June and it was a Hillary Clinton laid all through until the very and the campaign, although a shrink to affair of at the end of the campaign by Hillary Clinton, led, was five points sandwich you remember, there was that one pole on ten points, don't remember. There's that one poles either Susskind Hanover, Trafalgar, camera Berwick had Trump leading.
nay: silk boy nailed, it did the elder till it was pouring a guy. That's Adam! That's exactly what the final outcome was. A boy. Did the maids go crazy Republic and pull out of nowhere? What brutality they're using DNA? the love of are now need. Silver. Wants you to believe that you know he said, since there was a thirty percent chance, the trumpet when he was actually closer, the lotta people, Keziah Trump One and the other three percent chance of winning the problem. With that wine about having a three percent chance of winning.
based on the Poles, as he didn't, have a thirty percent chance of winning. He actually have a hundred percent chance of winning. That's actually what it means when you win is it's like: it's only an unlikely win, because, because that is what happened before it was Miss measured, it's not that somehow Trump beat the odds, the odds were Miss labelled. You know I mean it's not that it's not like. You know it's not like a coin flip. It's a coin, flip evidence an interesting point. Yet I would dare garbage and garbage out if the data are wrong. The data are wrong. The problem here with the data was itself. It was wrong. Itself was right. The national poles were exactly dead on the dead, the pull over, had Hilary willing by two nationally and she won I too nationally and almost Every state Paul was right, except in these three states, but that was that was all that. That was all that matters.
I just I don't know- I mean it'll it'll- be interesting to see whether Trump acts like he's behind what what about that look like by the way for him to act like his behind tonight. What do you guys think TAT is thereof? Would there be a sign that he knows that he has to let his going for the gold. I think I'll be punching a lot right and then you would be an active and let me showing charges here making job. I'm responded on trying to find out what you and Jane overriding yeah, never being defensive right, never trying to defend is on record preparing immediately upon a charge to labeling that Recent charge against Joe Biden, which is preferred tactic yes, so it would be, it would be a public, But if you really mean anyway, but if he were willing and thought you were willing, wouldn't he wouldn't be any different, so I'm just wondering if there is if there
I threw the site you without any. You know, because I just just came across my came across my brain. I've gets more, I mean if he, if he's just sloppy, if he doesn't have the facts right. If he doesn't have the note, the obvious talking points down that's Perry to discharge that we all know we should say but doesn't say, lay if he sloppy and lazy, like Obama was in the first debate, then he thinks he's at, but there is also the fact that the whole reason trumpet trumps her fans and trumps. Super haters both could agree on this one thing which has never been presidential, so the it's really hard. That's why it's hard to predict what he. A typical incumbent has it sort of typical way of behaving if they feel their ahead in doing well, and they can defend their record, but he's never been typical, but what of what people do? Well there staring down the barrel of all kinds of information that tell them that they are on the wrong force, and they need to its like if you're playing tennis,
you're a bad or something like that in your down five games to one right and upset me gonna lose the sad and that's the end of the match and the We think that you can do, of course, is just try to get every point right and try to win points. We have in your head. It's like I gotta with this game. Another gotta with the next came in, and I gotta when the next game, and then you dont focus on the point, and then you lose the point or if you're you know it's like
gotta hit a grand slam and if you think I got it had a grand slime, you'll never had a grand slam. So that's why it's bad to be losing its also that you're the question: where is your head? Go and all you can do as do your best at any given moment, but people don't have that in them like they want to swing, they wanna like change it with one swing, and you that's where you could just you know again with stupid sports analogies you're, just like Dave Kingbird, so you think you could have a home run, but in fact you strike out two hundred and fifty times in the season media you hit. You went a fitting forty home runs but use, but you strike out two hundred and fifty times in your actually bad
not good, even though you like had a lot of homework, baseball's a terrible analogy because baseball just stinks came out. If you are a good mailing, rumour hid them all one. Third of the time you have a three hundred you're amazing for drinking. no Dave king. When did not had three hundred that's all body to twenty, but he had a lot of home runs, and then it turned out that hitting a lotta home runs. Isn't that great, if you're, only if you're gonna strike out most of the time anyway. Ok forget the sports analogy so mad, so we don't know, go no. What trump, what what a desperate trump would look like, as he always looks, either looks desperate or he or he acts the way. People who are desperate act, but that's like his every day act. So it's very looks dejected. Dont forget there was a time some months back where he seemed so dejected that John, you
floated the idea, I and I thought it was a pretty good one that he had started given up already. You know this was after his first rally that went terribly, that no one should rob for that, they got punked on by the zoo murder, and You know he didn't seem to offer anything and that that was a that was a sort of a glimpse into a trump we hadn't quite seen before, but I also think that I'm gonna conclude as we too. I want to say something nice about What we are now at the end here, so that New York Times story which came out today, is about him. We constituting himself recreating his character, rebuilding his fortune and sort of repositioning himself in a way that lit made it possible for him to when the presidency, using the apprentice as the left
The show was debuted in two thousand and four and I have to say reading that story. It is absolutely jawdropping what he pulled off in the wake of the apprentice. According to this story, he earned four hundred and twenty million dollars, both from the show and from ancillary things that came from the show. Ten years. That's forty two million dollars a year and and of course, then re launched himself as a as a the image of a great business man, the other, the pop culture idea of a great businessman, all that, in a way that helped him. When the presidency, people are granting he's a moron and he's this, it he's a town
business man- and he now are you know he lost all this money, he's very clearly very reckless and real estate and makes bad calls and many makes back cause, because if he, if they were great calls, then you know he would have gone bankrupt almost bankrupt and ninety. Ninety one, his golf courses wouldn't lose money. They would make money He would build these buildings and make a lot of money on these only made money on one or two buildings and all that, but this is the greatest branding success in the history of the world. I was a business I'm going south and he said
he's done this opportunity. There was offered him to become a toy business man and made an ungodly amount of money and and understood that where he was going, he was going down market, not upmarket. He was going low, not high. He was the way to do this was to do learning annexed stuff and endorse double stuff, Orioles and do and a match and thirty asserted mattresses and go to Emma may and do all that, and it was like. Nothing was to sheep for him to endorse, because this was about money. This is and when you, when you're willing to go low to make money there, then you know without any concern for what you might look like or how hard you know, you're you're, so reputation or something like that. You can go crazy at in a country where stay,
there were declining and where the elites are declining and were all of that was happening. He did something on godly brilliant. I made an end. The refusal of the of the elites to understand the triumph here, whatever happens now, would lose the election whether he's in trouble afterwards, because he has all these debts There are suppose the lees personally guaranteed knowledge that he was on the down slide to obscurity in two thousand and two two thousand and three, and he leaped forward and became president in twelve years, while making half a billion dollars. Can I just said the part of the electorate that knows that story because they enjoy consuming. It are the same part that the elite in the media down on these deplorable that, as Hilary call them is, the story of Kim Kardashian do remember her. She got her start by strategically legal
homemade Sexty rate, and now she oversees an empire. It's that it's it's that entertain me that willingness to kind of pity. Barnum ask will do anything to capture a atomism attention, a monetize it did he tapped into, and it is, the elite disdain of that impulse is, is who a lot about. Why? There's that that still out there, by the way, trouble, I haven't yeah. I hope we all. You know if you're moving and promote lives like this is not a good sign about the country, but it's always been is always than a strain
Erika I mean that's. Why sent pity barn, and this is what we have done over the strain? That's a strain of the strain. Didn't led into the White House, you know I mean that that you know and that that's the joke of this is the people serve thought. This was what Reagan was Reagan. It stopped acting sixteen years before we're almost twenty years of forty became president, and you know he was the governor of the largest stayed in the country. He was, you know he was the greatest. You know off the cuff debater and speech of fire that that we have practically ever seen and he basically bill himself into this person but Trump when a different route, and it's not, as I said, I think it tells a good story about american culture and where we are in the kind of raw stout its point about the decadence society is very much at play here, but but but to but
to you from a treatment with contempt right. You ignore at your peril, as I think, yeah yeah, you ignored at your peril, and you misunderstand that you're dealing not with an idiot but with a genius it takes a genius to lose a billion dollars and then live off that through not paying tat. You know figured out a way to get yourself a seventy two million dollar tax refund. You know what that this is not. It is not reckoning with what he figured out
no one else figured out and if we don't understand him and understand how he got where he got and how this worked. It's not that were doomed to repeat his example exactly, but we can't understand America and where America is without paying respect to the achievement that he pulled off as a cultural and political figures. You could have contempt form, you can pay them. You can think he's a disaster at a danger and all of that, but you could separate these out in order to understand something very real and, and a true anyway. So we will have now gone on for two hours at seventy five minutes. So I apologise. and for no Christine and EVA Jump upwards, get cable, burning.
Transcript generated on 2020-11-05.