Does anything we talk about on a daily basis really matter? The COMMENTARY podcast confronts the existential question: Maybe this election is already decided, and neither events nor campaign strategy can alter the trajectory of this race.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcomes the Commentary magazine Daily progress these Thursday September? Third, twenty twenty? I of John Paul towards the editor of Commentary magazine a seventy five year old, monthly of intellectual analysis, work, probity and cultural criticism from a conservative perspective, we invite you to join us commentary magazine dot com. We give you a few free reason that we ask you to who subscribe with me as always: executive editor, a Green Waldheim hygiene Senorita, Christine rose high Christine again, ants associate at her nor Rossman high on our agenda
Ok, so we can talk about tromp. We can talk about Nancy policy. We can talk about the shooting of a cop in DC. Are the shooting of a suspect in LOS Angeles or polling. That suggest that their trump has got no traction on this Canosa story and the idea that Democrats are going now ARBA become handmaidens to the year. To the he left I saw a view pick. Where do you want to go ah man out shootings shooting stories in the and the resultant continuation of of unrest? ok, carriage, rapid retro at no had a great postal Nancy Blows yesterday saw it I'd rather start with that. Ok, now, let's talk about what Nancy below
I did the latest kerfuffle is the appearance of appearance of new policy area, local hair salon. We should have no a one day story, but due to her atrophy, political instincts has become now a major scandal. So apparently she showed up at this hair salon and got her hair bid and inside environment, climate control and Game San Francisco in San Francisco, if you're not supposed to do because it being inside, it is, Sir, for about forbidden, and she did so. She was masterless while she was transitioning from one place to the other, and there were some images of her corner, a security camera that weapon publicized and she gets low back for this, and she decided to come out and push back against it by saying but she was set up that this Circe alone is notoriously anti policy and that this was an effort to embarrass
and not, and then she attorneys involved? Who came out with a letter that stipulated that this their defence of close his conduct is that she was yes, she was patronising, speak easy but this is the speak, easy their operating as something that's violating a city ordinances, so look over there from it doesn't make a whole lot of sense in a political from a political perspective but this sort of how she's conducted herself. Since she resumed the gavel, she has made cereal new steps and demonstrated a Maladroit capacity to Navid. The news environment and has really miss manage the democratic agenda from of failing to ship making. The year each hour. One this bill that was gonna, be the centre piece of their legislation was an anti corruption. Bill was designed to Twenty nineteen: this isn't that right,
The corruption trumpets corrupt and they lost control the agenda to the squire very early on in the green new deal in their care for all things that she'd actively tried to discourage her caucus from pursuing became the centrepiece of the coffee she had to come out with it. Competing g, a green new deal bill and allow for medicate for all hearings and she's just put an end. There was this really hysterical, Dwyer missing the elephant, you're missing the elephant in the room, a sharp the elephant in the room was impeachment right. I mean He did not want to pursue impeachment and the and am, if got away from her, and The Ukraine story got away from her, and so they spent four months on impeachment, which was in was able praise early on was that she was deftly managing her left flank, which wanted to impeach, and she was bearing the truck ministration oversight, hearings in that strategy was really effective. Until the matter when wasn't, but nobody's change their assessment of her political instincts, roads objectively battle, will looks
Let's move on from her political instincts and whether or not she is good or bad at her job and as the sub. You know, octave generic speaker of the house, whether or not that it would be wise for Democrats, the keeper, assuming as as we all do, that she will they will retain the House- await limit their teeth ass, just briefly on industry. What did not introduce. She has become the Kennedy and endorsement which make no sense and was about, we need to. You know you got us, but Europe, Europe, your being a little love the cat. What Kennedy endorsement Representative Joe Kennedy was attempting to private. Senator at marking and ass. He had right right. Primary energy market for instance, when she endorse them and said no. This said that he had just be searched the name Kennedy which nobody cares about, hasn't cared about for a while a decade ago. Voters rent remark that he had this march. The name of candidate by any debate by saying, maybe maybe Joe Cavities, should ask what your you know, what he should do. First country or something
the canadian question and then he locked rubber. Yet he had many lost hence the targeted aid. Donald Trump suddenly, which end and the Democrats had been out enforcing the only people who want Joe Biden not to debate Donald Trump. Our Republicans she's single handedly undermine them narrative and rendered herself easily dismissed, because no It is never going to do that. So I put yourself in this position and then finally, the my favorite, which is that hurt intervention in the Senate negotiations in March over release package, which just inserted at herself into the process and said that we should give out all these trolling built hundreds of billions of dollars. PBS and Institute for the Museum in Library Sciences and the Kennedy Centre for performing Arts- and she was ignored she has become ignoring all so the other. So, let's so here's the question, so they. So these are the questions of our political skills that that are the products to the question of what on what the hell is. She do
does it matter and already you could see as the story was developing and the clear danger of the story. The idea that the most powerful Democrat in Washington is taking it is is not following. The rules is literally serve giving herself a personal exemption from lot from the lockdown regime that her party has basically Embrace Donald locally but nationally, but that's all four little little people and not for her, and then you can see the media pulled politico in particular than Dylan buyers of NBC News, the media columnist, who said something like Peter are dying out there, we're talking about this story, yeah, because when politicians act like the rules
don't apply to them. Whenever that happens, that is a story when politicians insist that other people live according to strictures that they do not place upon themselves. That is a story and bill and buyers and others in the media who were inclined to soft hell this. This is exactly what happened in ninety ninety one when it emerged that members of Congress were kiting checks at something called the congressional bank, meaning would go into overdraft and the checks would the attic Congressional Bank and they use the congressional bank in order to make sure that their checks would be covered and that they would never have checked bouncer and that basically, some of them, including the late Stephen sailors, were hundreds of thousands of dollars and are in in in overdraft, something that would not be permissible for any human being like them at a bank.
Anywhere in the country. This was a key event in the in the degradation of the democratic majority in Congress that finally led to the Gingrich victory and mighty my before, when fifty two seats changed, hands and report Hence got the majority for the first time in forty years. These stories have legs, they are powerful, they are comprehensible and they are indefensible. They always involve a completely indefensible action by the politicians at the politicians then tried a muscle through in some weird fashion and as as policy has done here by saying this salon that her her staff called to ask for an appointment called two ass. If they would do her hair that there that they set her up, how did they set her up if they, if they called too
ask for the appointment and it is even worse. Her hypocrisy is bad enough in her Marie Antoinette ACT is bad enough, but worse is the fact that there was a she's, the amazing political strategies everyone's. Always yes, queen in her on social media, for being when she's dealing with Trump, and there was a clear message to could have made, you could have said you know what I broke the rules. But let's look at one of these so even necessary anymore. Their small businesses are suffering in this state. My my constituents are suffering desperate going down case is going down in California. Maybe now is the time I should I ve done this. I take responsibility for my actions, but I think what this river else is. A lot of us are in a position where the rules are not actually accurately reflecting people suffering and undo the safety of reopening. With with cautious measures she could have actually a political win out of her own, you know egregious hypocrisy. She chooses to apple down and not just double down against the media's portrayal of her, but to go after a small business owner and and that that's punching down at a level that so
oh outrageous, and I will say it reminds me a lot of all these stories were singing on by political parties who are saying the violence and unrest me. That is so over blown look, I just data breakfast burrito in a very peaceful Portland park. This is a solution. Like oh, how dare you, you know, call someone out there? Hypocrisy, little moments, like you said, John with with the congressional Democrats years ago, These little moments in retrospect are actually quite important and you see why and her hypocrisy and doubling down on that hypocrisy in attacking a small business owner is going to come back to haunt her elbows on point. She did I do that, though Christiana her statement that she gave to reporters where she was talking about how she was set up and how this is so horrible. She also pivoted too that message saying she had been inundated with people saying in
their service industries. Thank thank you for calling attention to this. We need to go back to work, but there is still much to blame the salon person who anti policy. I think right I mean she tried, but you cannot have both messages you she had to take full response. Ready for her own cheating about rules while watch what she needed to do was not do it in the first place there is no. I actually is that I don't think she had anywhere to go once it was caught on tape. She was nailed. It was and she had broken the rule she had broken. The emergency procedures put in place in Francisco, she did it, and so
there's no way around it, and so what she should have done was not do it, and this is where politicians always get into trouble, because all they have to do is not do it once they do it. They ve done it. You know, and- and it's the it's Ec Caesar's wife, you know the whole, but principles is one which is, if you're the leader, if you're a leader of a kind, if your leader new, double time, can't break the rules or you can. But if you get caught, you ve got your your it's ten times worse than anybody else. Getting caught. Abrams are naturally each also part of what is driving people crazy. I mean this. Is you know when, when people see her doing that its, let you know and and their suffering, they can't forget that they can get their hair done, but they can operate their businesses that and there they are forbidden from, using their own judgment and taking whatever potential risks they assess if they can take,
but she can understand it happens in New York there. There are pictures out there of Andrew Cuomo walking around without a mask. You know he's on twitter they were putting up you know memes about how you have to wear masks. It is part of what is driving people crazy about this moment and all these contradictions. You know what the whole point is plus he's not in political danger. Personally, she'll never get voted out. You know she said that that's fine. There is an interesting at end, and so you know- and because of the the dominating political impact of of Donald Trump. The republican Party is, you is uniquely ill suited to take advantage of these moments because They have a morally compromise person in the presidency, whom they often defend or don't attack or some
like that, but that's not to say we can't and that's not to say that the alternative conservative press can and keep it going, and then you have this question of. Are the mainstream media just gonna serve as a blocking tackle finance policy? What they did pick up this story? I mean that they would this this. This broke through. I think without very significant, defaming Asher someone don't buy Merced said always is really a story, but but people made your story beyond Fox NEWS indeed. That is why she lawyer not by thing right and she would not have had a lawyer involved if it if it hadn't it. She didn't feel like a broken through. I mean that's just that that's where we get it would get to the her her her deranged political judgment, because all she had to do was just not respond or say you knows whatever say my bad or
I'm sorry or something like that. Just two words like I'm sorry and just let try to let it let the fire, the embers cool in the fire go out, and so she threw logs on the fire with the lawyers letter which then lead to get out of the hair salon, woman saying you know, she's a bully and I'm a small business woman and look what she's trying to do. She's like since you setting the dogs on me like that, how that is how that does anything but make her look bad. It is hard to fathom- and it does go to this question that that I think no one came to- which is that her two years as Speaker have not been good. They have not been successful years. The democratic party has had a very successful had a very successful run in twenty eighteen. Getting people into the Congress
and her speakership, the most the dominating issue of her speakership, the dominating moment of her speakership was this was the impeachment of Donald Trump, an event that clearly had no positive political impact for the Democrats whatsoever. I may I think I actually think it hurt them, but it certainly didn't help them and the fact that she gave in and let this be, the Sus the major
story in Washington for three or four months rather again in pursuing the classic thing that people do in these circumstances, which has passed piece of legislation after piece of legislation forcing which Mcconnell to bury it were or or push to aside, or do something like that or or again, as as those have run, these run these oversight hearings in committee after committee after committee after Committee, to just keep the Trump administration on the defensive and because they ended up focusing on this one thing they lost that thread added. This is this: is her back at this is heard. This is on her watch. This is her leadership. It so funny, though, had these these figures is the liberal heroes refuse to stay in the frame that that the press, as sets up for it
you know the moment. She got the gavel this time round. Every story was about how which did like Nancy the conqueror and how great, how competent, how fierce and at how to fear she was, and she just pay just couldn't. Do In reality, it contributes reminiscent of like up with Warren. You know was was was set as the world over the policy paper capable of changing its and just you know that to shreds still he ever she risks becoming an embarrassment I wish to make. The narrative will change very quickly. You know nothing no there's no scorn like the press when they have established a narrative for you and you fail to live up to I too am once their embarrassed. They will let you know it I think we're there yet, but then the tone is shifting and it's very hard to to miss all these cereal repeated miss
ex ingest amateurish errors that policy circuit you as nine would not be capable of love the Democrat politicians in Washington or on a knife edge, because you would think that in the position that there, in with the with the pandemic and general public support for their approach on the pandemic, that they would try who had tried scoring victories like scoring victories with the next tranche Stimulus, money or bail out in a prey Hugh American bail out money, and instead, humor and policy are like to drawing this very hard line because they want to be tromp where they want to humiliate trunk where they want Republicans too,
claim that they play their role in getting things done at that? That's a perverse instinct. It seems to me because people Democrats are, these- are the people who support government action, direct government action to help people or claim to help people and if they are now in the position of blocking help for pretty naked political reasons. I quite get mean. I understand that every Democrat hates Trump and that that's more them observe maybe that dumb it's more than their own natural philosophies, but is this? This is not an, and this is not a normal approach, credits that, but in some ways I have to wonder if the rationalization here in the end, and also kind of an explanation for how sloppy and undisciplined sum of some of their actions have been, is it they can take,
and actually rely on trumped doing ridiculous thing. That are worse than anything that they may do. So, for example, you know there are a lot of stories that could have been focused. People could have been focused on yesterday and then Trump comes out and suggest that people should vote twice in her hair. Like that, you know the voting person revoked put your mail valentine and then also shop in person mixture. The picture your vote is counted. This is not. This is not a message. Duplicative up the country should be sending. It is illegal to both more than one time, just as a public service announcement, so there I think they do kind of rely on that happening and his volatility in some ways gives them cover for their own lack of discipline. Right now, so look we ve got binding is now gonna gotta Canosa today and he's gonna meet with the fair
Of Jacob Blake, Jacob Lakes, fathers now been revealed to be arranging anti semite, with lots of social media posted that it's a horrible things. If, if these social media posts are real, we do have confirmation, but a lot of a kind of questionable thing. I am going to speak to the firm with someone who has been accused of, although not convicted, upper accused us of rape and sexual assault in and another thing so like that up. That seems like a crazy thing to do right. Why not go talk to the businesses because trunk talk to the businesses than followed up by by saying I'm gonna defined and archives city is a key just as crazy. He undermines its own method more than day. Their lack of discipline underlines theirs. So the president and a whole lot of things yesterday that I think
really disturbed. You mentioned one Christine. The speech in North Carolina worries, like vote twice, now, captured the media's attention as dangerous, because some people will listen to them and try to do that and it's a crime, and so the president is telling people to commit a crime. That's not good, but the president's political strategy now, appears to be verging on something approaching desperation and its manifesting in ways that I think are really deleterious. The first was obviously that in the second pillar, issued an executive order yesterday designed to deprive me The policies that he deemed to have been put to permissive towards demonstrators and looters and writers of federal funding and instructed the Justice Department to draw up a definition of what constitutes an anarchist jurist
action where, notably, not using it cited. These series of cities, Washington Dc New York City, among others, did site that need jurisdictions of portion of this executive order, which suggests some legal mighty there needs to be established there, which demonstrates the kind of tightrope he's walking is hard to avoid the conclusion that this is simply retaliation against other jurisdictions that voted for democratic politicians. He doesn't like And that's a really dangerous road to go down and slightly less dangerous. But more frustrating in my view, is this guidance that was issued by the CDC It's just puts a moratorium on rent, basically, no more evictions. You can't have evictions, because the CDC said so, where the hell does. The centre for Disease Prevention, Disease Control and prevention get the authority to just make rent, not a thing anymore around the country where they got it from the marshal of the Supreme Court.
I mean you know, it's like one of those things that those weird you know these weird institution. So there some you know somebody went and dug through the books on emergency actions in the time of a pandemic and came up with this notion that that you can use some Jeff. Shot in the arm of the emergency legislation, they re with our emergency regulation to do something like this. And this is where the rubber meets the road with Trump and I'm sorry, you know on the right which is yeah he's granite. Judges, yeah he's great. Unless you get on that, he doesn't care about anything. He doesn't care about legal niceties. He doesn't or about the rules. He and his people will do anything that they can come up with that they can even find a minimally defensible strategy, for, if they need to know, is right. This is at any of the weird part. Of course, Is that the eviction moratorium is something that that
but a bit in this stimulus bill, but you know but dead the Democrats our doing at an obviously they are a frightened of getting blamed for a wave of evictions which would really be their fault. So it's like will fix this somehow and somebody in the White House Councils office comes up with some yeah. It's like the the soothsayers and Bartholomew in the old black now it's Ed Bartholemy couple in the cub cupboards and they all black like they every time they just come up with some magical formula to eat out to make things happen that are just wonderful to attentive, to get trump off the hook or give him some wave of going. It was something from my operating theory. Here is that this is a political ploy and it's their interpretation of the landscape. Now that you have just gonna vehicle
came out yesterday showed the president doing really well meaning targets with minority voters, double digits, african american voters; third, north a thirty five percent among Hispanics and not to the one with the white, unknown college. Voters were really stinkin up. The joint is among waivers with a college degree where a suburban, more affluent, who turn out just that every election you got it used to turn out among working class voters, white voters who had a college degree. Their interpretation of how they're going to do that is to go to war with the cities so ultimately. First of all, this is sort of a narrow and callous view of what voters actually want heap. That seems to think that they don't necessarily want positive results, but they want revenge again. People they don't like, which might be true, but is not dangerous, instinct to inculcate and
It doesn't necessarily seem like a personal doesn't seem like it would work and, second all its at its roots and clearly and abuse of authority. So if that's their instinct, they think they can just really know tear up the social fabric if it gets them elected Where do we go from here? One of the three months left in a lot of damage to months. Two months left sixty days here, but you know it's also that I think Trump aside from literally speaking the words. I am your law and order president. He doesn't know what to do to show that he doesn't know how to impose law and order on any of this, and he sees this isn't grasping effort to do something, and it is the the absolute wrong thing you can do. What the right thing would be, which would be to convene local authorities to try to get them on board with cracking down on the chaos
instead of punishing them when a nightmare. This is for New York City residents. You have democratic politicians, saying you can't go to indoor venues forever, we're never gonna open schools are gonna clothes with no notice and you're. Just gonna have to live Wait forever and the Republican responds to this torture is to say: well we're all going to force you to fire. Twenty two thousand municipal employed. I mean, I think. That's true, and I think apes point to add to that is just is to remind everybody how much trump fears being appearing week. So, if you're a law and order, president in asserting that, but your driven by a fear of appearing to be a weak leader, you're gonna, make really horrible choices and the strain thing is that he already has a built in message. He could have adopted, it's the one that people like you, Georgians widow spoke to during the Republic International Convention. It's an eye that law and order isn't about revenge, and it isn't about a race war or culture war. It's about having rules that protect
everyone, because we are all we are all in this together. Writing is bad for everyone and it in, and it doesn't then try to attach to an entire group of people of the actions of a very small and radicalized minority, and there was just there is a way to talk about this. If your conservative and it's actually a far more compelling message, the lot of Americans agree because it's about not fighting, he seems to want to not appear weak and so is encouraging a kind of fighting mentality and that's bad. I think I mean the so. What looked looks talk about the voting twice thing: the North Carolina voting twice that because this is where
what you're going to hear is people saying look, he was joking or he was singing out why they say that there are so it's fine voting by mail. Absentee voting is fine. So if it's so fine, why don't you go to the polls on election day and see if they want you vote absentee? Your vote by mail then go to the polls on Election Day North Carolina and see if, if they say no, you can't vote because if they say no, you can't vote then there's the system that they say is going to work. It says it is working and if it's not, you better go vote because their there they're up to no good they're up to no good, so
You could imagine this is sort of like the the thing that the president is a is an internet trawl. I mean you could see how he one could write. A funny are bad, which is like hey. You know what we should really test this out, there's a lot of quite so. Let's see what happened, how bad go good, I'm gonna go the pulse twice and just see what happens and all that and that the problem is is that you know people. Don't hear irony and they don't hear humour in someone's voice. They may read a story unlike what, if a thousand people in North Carolina decide to go to the polling place and cast a second ballot, and suddenly there committing a felony, because actually vote hasn't been counted yet and above all, be counted for another two days or something like that water when it? What then I mean you know it's terrible, it's a terrible, terrible, terrible thing that he's done big
he may be amused. You know he. Maybe he may find it amusing to play this kind of game here. You know if their social That this and they won't mind if you go vote twice, we can't play games with people, this way when you are. The president of the United States in our system is r r, r R demo. Ex system right now is already under a great deal of potential stress for this election. As if the pandemic and in person voting the challenges he doesn't need we stress testing it any further right? I mean that because also the other. The other point to this is that it such as committing a felony its throwing away your vote, because if they find that you ve you know cast to do both throw that away you like about hit them. It will be tossed out that will not count it. Just it's ridiculous message, and I mean we came slightly the trumps defence. When, when the media kind of overplayed it and with his statements about hydrochloric queen and about your drink, bleeds like how those were deliberately misinterpreted. This is
being misinterpreted. He shouldn't say these things, its irresponsible, which upping misinterpret, but but the defence- and I hate this defence- the defences you dont get it you still don't get him he's troubling. Don't you get it it's like yet? No. Actually I do get that precisely and that's terrible. This is not material for trolling have said this on the package before, but that the fences well look at helping raising. He makes every by right during drives them crazy and isn't that great and in the same breath like everyone, is crazy. Now this is terrible. Now do look, I would be remiss if I did not say that you know the that the act of drinking liberal tears or watching liberals in pain, or all of that is not something that I don't enjoy
laughter, you're a monster. I often enjoy it. I can't help it. It's been forty years since I was in college, and somebody at my college started something called the liberal capitalist running dog lack, society in which they walked around. Nobody knows who they were. They were like they. They started that they had a platform which included like using the poor for firewood and stuff like that, and everybody was you know, outraged, and it was just this act of comic. It was like an tpc before pc even existed, and you know that's funny. I think it's funny and it you know it can be funny and that kind of drinking liberal tears it's funny, but I'm you know, I'm not, president of the United States, and you know I did a lot of this on twitter.
And one of the reasons I got off Twitter is that people really started finding my efforts to drink liberal tears, not funny and going after me, and I realise that air was her like playing some weird game and then I'd be doing. I might do myself some damage, bye, bye, bye, provoking you know, hostility for no fourteen of just for ten seconds of my own personal amusement so we know this temptation, we have it we're all we're all we know we're all in it. Aren't you I really had a private group chap I just wanna put ahead as rights would have it right and end. The other thing- and I think this is this is Key- is that the one thing that would be delicious about a Trump victory in November would be to see you know the lemon Tito's. But what is the gang is calm line it out to sea
is Fredo screaming and hear them and taking the lantern habitations other right. I mean you know they're, not on our side, it, oh they ve. Now embrace this. You know revolutionary ethos and their baby. You know they're there. Now a lot of people like this are now either implicitly explicitly or K or in the most coward.
The way you know endorsing a view of american american history that I revile ends and seeing them punished by voters would be amusing to me. But you know that's just that's not a good, that's, not positive impulse, it's a dark impulses and id like impulses of its end, and you know that's a lot of what humor is. As you know, you humorous speaks to your lowest lowest part of herself, not the highest, and so you know when I see coach least or other serve people on the on the on the right saying this sort of thing and then calling everybody who says well, you know tribulation do this in afraid, o Connor are saying that, were you know, you're just
you're, just a liberal, simple doesn't get out. Who do doesn't get at? Are you you know? You don't understand how to fight these people got fight. I'm gonna fight. Well, you know, I don't know you know when I see by not eight points, I'm not sure that the trolling as is working- and we should talk about that, because so that so we now have the first wave of a really completed wave of Post Republican Convention Post Canosa, appalling and I'm from what we can see. Trump has not been helped. He, whatever bouncy may have gotten from the convention, seems have receded at if there was about it was a couple of points, and maybe it's dead down a point and of course, that is largely statistical. Noise Biden is up between seven and eight, and there were
they Poles Fox, were released yesterday that showed abiden up nine in Arizona and ate. It was constant- and I remind you that if Biden wins Wisconsin trumpeting still in Arizona, if Biden Win The Arizona and Wisconsin Trump basically has no shot, even if he flips a couple of even if he should flip Minnesota or something like that, and of course it chances are if he wins if violence was constant, Trump won't flip Minnesota. Because of the the idea that, a comparable states move comparably end up in a in a national referendum. What are we make this a bloody make of it? Well, I think he's it's interesting with Trump. You can always serve watching charred. He goes. He has these many bombs.
And these many falls and you can almost feel them coming and this this is already feeling like he's going into a little spiral here. Right he's he's he's he's about to dip down cause he's making. All is making all the wrong moves. He didn't capitalize on the on the modest bounce had he got from the convention, He is always his worst enemy went when miraculously things around him worked out in terms of the convention, then he got involved alone in their f aftermath of it and and begins to budget, not not that. I think he bought anything particularly canosa, but with with all the rest of his
hysterics and mistakes. Yes, there are some caveats to this polling data daily news that we got yesterday. Soda conventional wisdom reaction was that look Democrats had spent the last week in a half hand, wringing over this violence in urban centres, and the response wasn't good enough and look at the polls bulls on suggest anything like that kind of movement. So we were all just blow and smoke, and none of this really matters. Well, maybe the campaigns are behaving like this data is relevant to them both things are behaving as though the urban violence has become a central campaign theme. The Nepal, like it had more than Sally Centre, Martha Mcnally down seventeen points to challenge Europe more Kelly. Look at the numbers were that add the interest he would
and they're- not so that's the national. That's the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports is the national support for local centre basins yeah. I don't think you can come back from a kind of a deficit, so they would probably not be investing the millions of the order that rates, though it is a curious of those probably lost that being said, You know. Maybe we should entertain the prospect that we're all wrong about how voters are viewing the series of events that the democratic message that these are all trumps creations, because Trump is a creature of chaos and chaos distributed to him, no matter what form it takes, even if he hates it may be. That message is more resident them and gave a credit for any more intuitive them and gave a credit for and there is no amount of pain the voters are willing to not endure in order to reject Donald Trump from office. Can I can I fled another possibility, which is greatly we secret. We do all called Trump Loki that you don't think John had this good coinage of them. Big
being that you know cause Asian, but there is another possibility here, because if you look at the the appalling about Americans feelings about black lives matter, they were quite I and now they're receding. So there's that there's a sense in which people might be able to do distinguishing black lives matter and any the violence in the protests from Joe Biden personally, because there also really desperate to have someone who isn't chaotic, who they want to believe will solve this problem in its revolve, said many times on this podcast. That's a fiction because the problem will continue, even if Joe Biden is in office, but people really want to have some alternative. That doesn't mean that they are happy with how things are spiralling in the city. Still, they are not. Happy with the burglars Madame without their there, their numbers are going down pretty steadily. So I wonder if eight people can be that distinction and in a way that slightly a subtle than the one that you're suggesting they're making all, but I agree like we ve chump is not there.
Getting from the chaos right now. Ok, so let me let me proposed by my I've. I've hinted at this- I guess over the last week, but I'm not gonna like fleshless out, which is none of this matters. Nothing matters not have it matters, here's. Why does matter either. Tromp has already lost
or is already one. Let me lay the sap either is already lost because we can see the dynamic in the dynamic is Democrats had sixty two million votes and twenty eighteen Biden is outperforming Hillary Clinton in every measure, with everyone with every group white working class, black Spanish, even though there are a couple of poles, the shout supposedly claim the trump is out. Trump has gone up from from twenty nine to thirty five percent among Hispanics. That kind of that already, as in the margin of error for Paul like that, because there is no, there is no individual polish Hispanics and the margin of error it. A sub group is very, very high,
that can be noise whatever, but Biden is outperforming Hilary and all uses outperform Hilary by eighty. Eight thousand votes in the three states right up to us to take the election and there's nothing trump can do cause trumped up made his case through with his presidency, binds when making his case now for a year and a half as a candidate for office and people are familiar. With him and they are familiar with tromp and that's all it's all done trumpets reach. Everyone is gonna. Reach he's gotten back most of the people who voted form and twenty sixteen, but maybe nobody else may be able to expand its base. He hasn't done it. That's it
goodbye it's over, and so whatever happens from here on in its baked in the kick. The other is the trumps already won, and here is the argument that trumps already one David was chairman of the coop political report, puts it as follows: ok in twenty sixteen Non college white voters made a fifty percent of the electorate, Michigan forty nine percent Pennsylvania and sixty three percent was concept but among non voters. Whites without college degrees were sixty percent in Michigan, sixty four percent and Pennsylvania and sixty four percent Wisconsin meaning there is a huge pool of potential voters for tromp too to try to get to the polls vote and, if he's reach them or as reaching them, that will not show up in the polling because they are not voters and the screen that is used in pulling
in election years is, at the very least, mostly a scream for voters, registered voters or likely voters. Whether registered voter thing doesn't matter all that much anymore, because in most of these states register, you know up to either sometimes on the day of, but also you know earlier, week earlier some like that, so you can sell, drive them and if they say we are even told you before, then generally upholster will hang up unless it's a poll of of all adults or something like that. If Trump is going to pull from these people and if some of these issues are going to help Trump pull from these people
the hill pulled from them and he'll win and we'll never know that it will never seen it coming nor will buy. You can't see it coming. Just as I think I said in twenty twelve Obama found voters who hadn't voted in two thousand and eight to replace a lot of the voters that he had lost and that the Romney people didn't know those voters were there because they weren't hadn't been voters before so they were using conventional, techniques and doing what they, what they do to measure enthusiasm in this and that the other thing and suddenly suddenly Obama's producing votes in places, particularly in Florida that they that they were had been invisible to them. So everything that we're talking about here could not matter whatsoever trumps either in a region. Where is not bides already one or has it? The third possibility, of course, is that just because Canosa hasn't bitten yet doesn't mean that two more months of this
isn't going to bite and end the democratic and liberal hunger to believe that it is not an issue were not a salient or not. An important issue is again going to blind them too. It's too the galloping horses of the apocalypse. If they you know, if they aren't careful and don't keep a steady head and watch watch, the omens importance more carefully is their fourth possibility, which is that there is still room for something akin to call me coming out with his Hilary report on either side right. There could be some late shake
up that recast, one side or the other and shifts things more dramatically than we can anticipate. What this again, I think, shows what a blunder a trumpet politically, because if he had, if he had pocketed Hunter Biden, if he had pocketed Hunter Biden and twenty nineteen and kept it for October twentieth that Biden son, you know, which was which was something that was bubbling improperly. There were stories in the new Yorker and various other things if he had just pocket at it and kept it to use three weeks before the election yeah. That could have been a hell of a knocked over surprise or enough embers surprise. The little huh
Imagine what November surprise can hit trump, though, because what hasn't hit try, I mean what what and you know this is. The other thing is it's like he, they hit him and they did his his his supporters to just you know it's incredibly static. If you look at the pup pup the approval line from twenty seventeen to the present, it's almost like a kind of you know you could lay out a board on top of it in the board will be level, but you know that's bad in some ways I mean that's like that. Just means that he's exactly where he was in January, two thousand and seventeen in in September, of twenty twenty and and he drew to an inside straight, to win the election and there's no reason to think that there's he's going to be able to draw to an inside straight this time without Wake up about a late bite me. Yet how can there be a lay Biden hit? We all know about the plagiarism. We already know about the handiness. We already know
but terror red. We know about Hunter, now. What will now anomalies and ate up? We don't know we don't know, but, but when I describing as in a hit per se, its events and the wolf surely be events that will occur. That will shake up the dynamic of the race between now and no member I mean- maybe not surely, but likely in its very rare that you get into a campaign season this late and there are exceptional events that occur. That change your opinion of the political dynamic, clean. The question is: are opinions so so set in stone about this president that they'll matter of foreign Christ? for example, would with that change, everybody's opinion and on the president, a kind? I don't think so. I mean we're even even a mill of one of the military by major. While the obvious thing is whether- and we should talk about this Ducas, it's the other news at last, for forty eight hours is the announcement.
Of a vaccine rights of these archives of come out that the CDC assent to states every now, they need a plan, for the euro for the execution of a vaccine strategy at the state level since There's all the billions of dollars are being sent to drug companies to prepare them for the for the for the creation of the once. There is a vaccine for the mass creation of the vaccine to be distributed net nationally, tat to everybody. So, of course the question is: did this just happen because they need this guidance just in case there is a breakthrough or was this? You know another trump intervened, trumps interference in the scientific process, looking for stories that suggest that there's gonna be a vaccine before the election. What I'd do if it was trump interfering? It was kind of a brilliant political move, regardless of whether you think it's ethical,
because it has driven the left into instant conspiracy theorizing about what is in fact a pretty standard thing. Does the same thing happened with each one? Anyone you do have to issue guidelines, because, in To get as many vaccines out to the most vulnerable populations as quickly as possible, people have to ready themselves, they have to come up with places where they can be distributed, ways vetting who gets at first. This is standard practice in public health, but the fact that Trump announced it when he did, of course, because its election year, because of the way that the mainstream left use views, trumpet became its put them in the weird position arguing in we're in a strange way that you have, this is dangerous. What vaccine is dangerous? It is terrible that they're gonna become Anti Baxter's. If up careful petitions. You know from the very start of this of the hunt for the vaccine, I mean it's called operation warp speed for a reason. This way
always going to be a sped up process for months vowed she has set- sometimes he says later, but someone for four months. He has on occasion said that we could be looking at something by the end of the year. So this is not some there's. No as if this is a sudden shift, because of politics and which is not to say it isn't, but but but there's a big plenty of evidence here that this has always been in the works. Look, if you think about previous election cycles, things you think you're gonna be big. Aren't big turns out like Romney's dazzling. First debate performance didn't really matter, Benghazi, didn't really matter Pailin, despite the fact that there is now a method pale in her
Mccain pellet pale and probably help Mccain marginally, but the pale, and even that didn't really matter what we know mattered was commie reopening the pillory investigation in October Yes, twenty sixteen, so we do have some evidence, but the Al Qaeda story into two thousand for a dead matter that you why the Bush do you. I mattered most mostly things don't matter unless the races so close and an end. The circumstances are so unsettled that any change in the equally we can throw things off and that the narrative, the theory of the recent we're getting now, is that it's not close that you know you look at every, even though you can say look the battleground states are closer than the national Paul's Biden is still up everywhere in everything practically.
Now I mean he's a close to Tide and North Carolina, but it in every battleground stayed, including Arizona which was. It hasn't been about grand state for a very long time. Abiden is slightly outside the margin, that's closer, but he's kind of like pretty much at the margin of error winning. So this is not a close race, yet it was a clash race with Hilary were due to two suggestions. I'd like ten from one is that both of what you say the binding himself could could do that might change that one is is if he really- and we ve talked about this- if he really does struggle in a free form debate without a teleprompter without pre approved questions from the press. If he really is struggling to make a point that will concern people. Now we know from his debate with centres that is probably not gonna happen. He did find in that debate. In fact, he seemed very very impressive in that debate.
Thing, though, and I think, to go back to bite and going to canosa, not start a business owners but to talk to the family, Jacob Blake. If he sets him of a standard of meeting with the with the families of all the people who ve been shot by police yet an doing these kinds of zero rounds of behaviour. There's gonna be a lot of stuff, that's expected of him if he keeps doing that. That's gonna that angers voters the ones you were talking about earlier, John, the ones who are pretty prolong enforcement, who don't like the rest to judgment that happens for all of these shootings, who don't like the way that that you know activists organizations exploit them for their cause. So if he, he keeps do if he does. The y I'll be very, very interested to see how this can thing goes over for him, because I find that a dangerous precedent. At a time when things are still very unsettled in this country, about law enforcement, so watching that, and I'm really closely watched the debate for MRS, because I do think those debates, no matter a heck of a lot more than previous presidential debates have It's also some weird movement staples like state the poles
moving away from Donald Trump in this belts and the New south in places like North Carolina in Georgia and even Florida but they're not moving away from him. That all or with the rapidity that using this out in the Upper Middle West, where you had this violence consecutively for a long time now and now, they're of staring down the barrel of a pandemic outbreak where they never really had won in places. Like Iowa, Coders, Minnesota and so yeah, I mean there the problem did you can have it and not a uniform shift in the political landscape, and you know it somebody. The other day said the realignment election was point. Sixteen the realignment is I am by no means convinced that the real aim is upon us. I think we're still smack that in the middle of it we could see a manifest in the results in November.
We could, and as I say, that I think that all is going to depend on whether or not he gets these non voters to vote the way. The way Obama got non voters to vote in twenty well, but even though things aren't moving away from him and the battle grants its. They are not moving relentlessly toward him. Either Biden is up everywhere. He is up in Wisconsin. He is up in Pennsylvania here, up in Michigan. He is up in Minnesota, he's not up that. Much he's not up seven eight points, but accepting, except, if you take these fox polls, I'm in Fox hasn't my bait in Wisconsin. That could be bad pole or an outlier, or something like that, but, Who knows so? I'm I'm more convinced of the of the way stem of my Ella. Well, nothing matters idea here, not that nothing matters, but that just as Noah says there is a realignment
Going on. These are very large things that we are dealing with and that a momentary spasms of the new cycle are knocking shift anything that either we are moving to a world in which Democrats and Republicans whirl and urban faith and and and no face all this are just starkly divided with vast majorities, leaning, one way or the other, and that and that that acceleration, that trend is going to accelerate geography and geographically as it, as it add, says, it seems too, and so that the other will be these just massive democratic majorities and advantages in the more. You know urban states and coasts than in the inn, and all that and then people just moving relentlessly and the populist right direction of trumpets. Whoever follows trump
that. This could be the second election of that trend and we're just gonna have to see whether that's the case but again, I wanna know until November, and God knows when will know November, because of course we are on the heels of this horrible question about whether or not we're gonna see weeks and weeks of counting after the election is over which we can get to maybe tomorrow. So with that we will bid you do for a Christina. No I'm job onwards keep the camera.
Transcript generated on 2020-09-10.