« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Does Trump Have a Strategy?

2020-10-07 | 🔗
Donald Trump’s decision to announce that he was walking away from the table amid negotiations with Democrats over another tranche of COVID relief sent shockwaves through the markets and the political landscape. Did he have a plan, or, as his subsequent tweets suggest, was this a fit of pique? Also, forecasting the highlights from tonight’s vice-presidential debate. AEI scholar Matthew Continetti joins the show to discuss all this and more.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcomes the commentary magazine. Veiling podcast today is Wednesday October. Seventh, twenty twenty. I jump on boards, editor of and Terry Magazine with me as always associate editor nor Rossman high on our agenda second of editor, a Green Waldheim hygiene Senior radically. rose and high Christine icon and joining today. Eighty I scholar founding editor of the Washington Free, begin Washington, common
Harry Columnist for Commentary Magazine Matthew Continuity, high Matt, I don't sell Matt you. I were having an exchange yesterday, overtaxed about the president's announcement that he was directing his people to suspend all negotiations and talks over a stimulus bill with Nancy Policy and the house until after the election which a strong said he would win, and then they could could make a deal and I was fascinated to hear you say or read? You say that you thought that this might tell worse for Nancy Policy, then it would for Trump and the report
kids. Can you elaborate on this theory will share this stipulate? The trumpet the Republicans may already be screwed and so be damaged to them would be marginal from Iraq. then he deal, but let's also go back and remind the clock a little bit more remote. The spring Blowsy House pass this three trillion dollar bill. I think it was to the next stage of relief, but is a thing was called the Heroes ACT and that, of course, is a dead letter in the Senate, and so for much of the summer there was oh movement on another, a corona virus stimulus bill, because the two cancer just so far apart, and also because, neither camp, but it was really in their interest to do any more stimulus, the sense of necessity that we encountered the winter when the Krona virus first hit, I was no longer
they are that sense of emergency, which is really the only thing that compels the two sides to make an agreement any longer it wasn't until later. In the summer. I think around at the beginning of September that a group of primarily the Freshmen House Democrats sent a letter to Pelosi begging her to restart the negotiations, and when I take from that letter was that they were hearing from their considered Instead, they needed something. And, moreover, when you think about this Congress, remember, though, other than me the Cares act and cares to earlier this year. the only thing that a lot of these freshmen have to show for their time and congresses, impeaching a president and the even his re election campaign. So I think the grudgingly policy he started the process. Now who is proposing negotiating with not the Republicans she's, not, she is not negotiating Republican, that's something everyone needs to understand, she's negotiating with Steve manoeuvred, who is a liberal democrat, and there are
try the Treasury secretary of the Treasury secretary either liberal Democrat, and there is a lot of forestry, among Republicans on the hill that he gave restore away in the earlier bills and is really just trying to reach agreement more than trying to preserve any modicum of you know: Bout Republic in economic policy and these in these deals. So when the word came from Trump yesterday that he was spending, negotiation, he said until after the election, but then I'm just earlier today. He said that he wants now, some smaller bills, which was the original republican proposal. I wasn't surprised and one because the Republicans in the Senate are interested in spending another two trillion dollars, which seems to be policies. Final, ask I am it's- the people who are going to go home whose constituents will be most disappointed, we'll be Democrats at source, not really in it.
here again shorn of whether we should or should not do this. It's not in the republican present its interest to help the Democrats get a win. Ok, so that's interesting perspectives, and is it is clearly a minority perspective in this sense, which is trump. There was no reason for trial to make this announcement right. In other words, the negotiation either works or doesn't work and I can go on, nor not go on transit vision to unilaterally say we're done them were walking away from the table, had how did a politically gobs smacking quality, which is he's gettin terrible Paul's he's had a bad, you know he's a bad weak him. Every most conceivable senses
he's announcing. I am saying we are I'm going to have a stimulus, or you know they allowed small, but whenever you want to call it bill, it's my decision to do this. Therefore I am owning that we're walking away from the table and, frankly, as a simple matter of politics, I cannot fathom what possible advantage that is on up twenty eight days before the election and that the number of voters in the United States who are voting, who are, who have now become. You are concerned about the spiralling fiscal crisis and you know about national debt and a budgetary deficits as as a
factor in american politics. Right now would appear to be about negative. Three billion per cent is to be one of the two three or four major economic issues and in the country and in part because of behaviour of the robbing and them where the end of the notion that tramples all of a sudden gonna announced himself as a fiscal with fiscal probity, that's stitches doesn't sell. So He is basically said: don't worry Nancy, I'm gonna, take all of the blame for their not being a second cares. Act, Abe, yeah, especially Trump, making himself the mouthpiece for this at the time that he did contributes. I think greatly to this narrative that trumpet is-
Spiralling into this through unfair, see, I mean unprecedented degree of reckless conduct and is a day. to the country, and I'm not saying this is this constitutes a danger to the country, but it it feeds, what's what's been going on right up until there, but he the notion that this is some firm footing foresight was at work. Here is betrayed by the fact that, after saying what I'm I'm walking away from the table, he went right back to the table right and the markets tanker within hours. He said this is something I want. I want this these piecemeal bills and out this morning he sang move fast names. policy. I am waiting to sign so if he was interested in- playing hardball you now. He kind of just gave up that strategy pretty quickly while I'm he did during
I ate with binding. He actually stepped on an item, some momentum, where Nancy blows it was finally being seen for the obstructionist difficult. You know with deeply partisan actor. She had been throughout these, so called negotiations right that, despite the press, constantly saying Applicants were the ones blocking this. It was clear that this was hello, say, show and she was controlling, and then she had no political interest in giving what might be seen as a wind to two trump bye bye strike, a new deal that narrative was finally starting to to sink in with voters and just at them then did trump barges and like the Kool aid man again and like I am going to control things now, I'm taken us off the table now come back to the table and just turns it into chaos yet again, just like you or let Biden prattle on during the debate and reveal himself to be rather meandering in his policy thoughts What did he say said Miranda go shooting until after the election after I win suggesting that he's holding this package has
until right with you watch, which is exactly what Nancy Policy was doing and out literally said we don't want. No deal is better, I mean, if it does, she said. There's no deal is better than the deal that we don't want. That's it even position to leverage he decided to not only adopt her position and make it his own, but then abandon it after we look for five hours. I think there's the assumption here is that the deal that might have been struck between Mnuchin and Pelosi
at merchant agreed to the two trillion dollar package, which is not just that debt by the way that that people are concerned about its also, the fact that a lot of it is shovelling, money to public sector unions and blue states and Republicans are against. That is that they would pass the Senate. That's when it if, when it passed the Senate, the deal would not pass the Senate and why. I think it is interesting about this, as it shows the the resurgence of the yoke. Let's call it club for growth republicanism. In the Senate Carcass, among Republicans, which which I had not really anticipated beggar earlier in the year when the virus hit with that would be a more solid, eristic, more nationalist republican Party, willing to spend more money, and it is certainly the case when it will. You had a sense of real national emergency aid, but now is best there's the election looming in the narrow everyone see.
Soon Trumbull lose it. You find that the Republican Party is girding its loins, or I unified, democratic control and with it, wherein the Republican Party will be much more about where spending more money and we're not taxing any more and more traditional. I think republican focus while okay, so the where I am confused about this, is that obviously could pass the seller. What I couldn't who or what Mcconnell didn't have was a majority of Republicans in his carcass of every Democrat is going to vote for the bell it passes the set at the Republicans. Don't have ninety seats control, and so we, move now. For me, from a time at which you know, you needed some by partisan consensus in the Senate to pass any thing. But when will we
and went to a time when Apparently anything that has a bipartisan vote is now ideologically suspect and that the only bills that I will get more pass are ones that get fifty one Republicans and no Democrats vote for it because of the die because of this dynamic in our body politic, where the and parties can speak to each other and they are simply there like negative, polarized images of each other and in a national crisis. If you assume that were still in a crisis that was kind of supposed to stop I'm not saying that Trump is responsible for it not or that Senate Republicans are responsible for it. Not stopping. Obviously, Nancy Policy is behaving like somebody who doesn't believe that international crisis, you have to help create new consent.
Can't get out new consensus across party lines, so you give up some stuff and they give up some stuff, and everybody comes together because the country needs it. She is as hyper partisan. A bullet a player as we have ever seen, and she has no feeling aye, sir anything for obviously for casting a bill in the in the way that say Stephen. Mnuchin wants the possibility, which is what get a lot of money and throw it against the wall, and I don't care how its constituted? We mean We need to Greece the waiting to Greece, the wheels here- and here you know Trump and tromp was now trumps logic or whatever you did yesterday was not helped by the fact that Powell, the head of the FED, came out and said
their better, be more money or this is the country is gonna. Do there's gonna be a lot of suffering. Then again, I don't have a job I am sure that the policy bill was garbage. The question is: do the is what Trump did erratic and politically foolish, or you know, has he by so doing what he did ass, he created new room or no space or something for negotiations by saying he's not gonna negotiate anymore. and I don't know whether his behaviour over the last twelve eighteen hours tell us Anything as he said, I walk away from the table and many tweeted seven different proposals for bills. He wants to pass, which certainly sounds like negotiating did did somebody go? Oh my god knows what are you doing that it's crazy? What you just did we get look like we
nothing going in, or was this some larger strategy racism one way from the table, but I want these bills, so we can get away from the table on this big. Two trillion thing, but maybe and set out of twelve hundred dollar checked everybody, and maybe we can bail out the airlines that what are you what are you I mean? Who we don't know? Obviously, right I mean I think it's safe to say that there is rarely any larger strategy work. I mean it's it's what at what he feels at a given moment, based on who these talk to most recently. That compels him to do certain things. I mean that I'm that's clear, I mean that's been our lives for the last five years. I think in this case that pollution was moving toward the arrangement with policy that would have put centre republicans in a very difficult by because then they would have been the people obstructing this grand deal. What happened was now
Trump said: I'm walking away. I don't like this thing at once again the deck, and so, as you point out, who knows what's going to happen, but it's not going to be what we were veering towards, which is something that this probably would especially the the senators right, because then you would have had a divided republican caucus where the senators up for re election would have been put in a bad spot, and now it's like well, you know once again, I knocked over that the cart and we're we're gonna just have to come up with something new but didn't get to this place, based on the president's recalcitrance in the first place, The reports that have been following these negotiations all closely, but the reports that I remember being privy to was that
It wasn't really eager to strike a deal until we got closer in MID September and then a fire I was lit under it in the first week of October. All in response to his political condition is pirouetting political position, much closer to send republicans and then began to waver right. Grab me if I'm wrong. I know that's not the way. I understand it, but not police Griffin. And it could be I'd like it that I think most of the pressure for a new deal is coming from Freshman House Democrats because they have they're the ones who need to go to their districts in swing swing,
tricks and say we are doing something to help your economic conditions that we we were now living in this by brocaded system, where the states that have reopened are actually on the way to recovery or may there not their fully that some people are not being. You know that, obviously, the there's a lot more that couldn't progress to be made, but the states that are having them the highest joblessness continue to be the states that impose the severest lockdown policies. So, from a republican point of view, your against the lock downs right. So why would you do anything to help them right it does? It doesn't make any sense that you would say: oh,
we oppose the lock down, but we're going to start paying people and and and doing and paying that paying the institutions to maintain them. Some that reminds me in MID September, there was this revolt of Moderate House Democrats against Nancy policies objections to a compromise deal which actually brought her closer to the table to, and I had forgotten about that wall case all the interesting aspect here there are different there are things that clearly worked, and then there are uniform notional or you know, gimme- is in right so pretty fair to say that it is generally accepted that the payroll Paycheck Protection ACT was a was a success in the in the throw money and people, so they won't lay people off to the extent possible so that there is some kind of bridge from
and if things start picking up, people aren't laid off and then rehired they get it. Basically, it's almost light was like on. It was like private unemployment, insurance being paid for by the government just keep full on staff and there when the money runs out? If the economy is picking up than me, then you can just keep them on and they'll be no interruption of service and they won't have gone off and and lost their jobs and that, particularly in certain, Very challenged and troubled industries, primarily the food, and beverage industry at the source of the entertainment industry writ large food. we see amusement Paul whatever you want to call it the things that people do to amuse themselves indoors elsewhere? We're still in we're still
a lot of the country in a mountain in a massive deck, a crisis that will take a deck or longer to recover from, and that's where the tragedy comes in here and Emmet. Is willing to accept that it's entirely policies halt, but Apparently there will not be that relief and though there will be, there will be a second tranche of massive lay offs and in going into the winter and that's bad, I mean you're gonna, be a second tranche of lay out the unemployment rate,
tell the late for some place. It was lower than I'm insured that labour force participation, participation rate fell to, but I mean that I think it. I dont know how necessary I'd. Ok at people obviously would benefit from added aid, and especially rather forget the entertainment industry presented the industry that really on the verge of collapse and airlines right and that's the one where the government has a historic. You no tradition of intervening, but I mean I just I'm not so clean. The economy is not clear to me that the economy lives or dies on the basis of the stimulus package being passed in the next three weeks.
I think that's a narrative tat people are, are, you know promoting, but it's not clear to me that is borne out in the data, and I added, I think. If you look, if you look at the business headlines, our recovery is doing much better than most others at an end. Seems to me that the determining factor is whether the states have have reduced these these very strict. controls over economic behaviour. Okay, so let's, let's continue but despite that, give me a moment to talk to tell you guys about bills, dotcom today's sponsor because, as we say in being in debt, sucks credit cards loans, mortgages does matter what kind being in debt flat out stinks? Well, there is awaited defeat. Your bet, thanks to bills that come in
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you're, making a substantive case against the bill, which, I am sure is correct. That say read the Wall Street Journal editorial today said the presents right to walk away from the table said: look minutiae, got up, got up his highest, and the pollution? In the end, the Publican centres got up as high as a trillion. Sex Pelosi won't budge from two trillion where throwing these numbers around like they are candy. If your member was only ten years ago, nine and a half in eleven years ago that the Obama stimulus. Which was a trillion dollar bill, single largest dollar piece of legislation. in american history by a factor of to nothing, and that seems too broken the damn. We now speak about trillion dollar legislation.
With a trillion dollars and in infrastructure that that may be Trump and the Democrats could have negotiated at the end of twenty. Sixteen. Before tromp retreated back into his basin, the Democrats, made it clear that they could never deal with the present any way, shape or form throwing these numbers around, as though they are as though it's nothing- and this is a great credit to the Twenty twenty one, democratic control of the house, the presidency and that we have now established that a trillion dollar bill, he's got was actually climate from politics Jesse You know you don't want, or only a trillion dollar bill you gotta two trillion otherwise you're. Just what are you just like you, like your cheap militant?
that doesn't the bunker before imagining Abiden presidency. You not no deal, Through an Joe Biden enters office with democratic majorities in the Congress in the first order of business will be covered, relief, and all those other spending proposals. Those trillions of dollars, a progressive wishlist items are, are not gonna, be filled bill, is just not gonna, be something are we can we can do and the Republican Party will adopt a more hawkish rush towards debt and deficit, I just because that's where the centre of gravity isn't party, but also because there will be significant necessity, we're we spent five now, there's this year that we don't have so allow when people are gonna- be very frustrated with our fiscal condition, but by monetary policy. Now are Well, I suppose it s beginning to weaken, coined the trillion dollar coin.
Here's another aspect of modern monetary that even an anti advocates. Don't really about much is that, in order to avoid inflationary pressure, you have to tax that money substantially and taken up circular they don't get around to that part. Well, look I'm obviously kidding when I say there's an answer, but if you that the Democrats are gonna, be satisfied. You know in in in in this notional by end all democratic Washington with not doing their wish list. You got another thing: Now I think you're gonna be very unsatisfied. I also think that they are gonna, do it anyway, because they are going to bring on be Bartholomew in the black suit sayers who are going. to tell them that is Ok, to spend ten trillion dollars?
they're going to want to try and it's going to be a months long process. It's going to be a months long process just as Obamacare was a months long process and that's where, seeds are sound for a twenty twenty two backlash. Not if you eliminate the filibuster, it's not If you will limit the filibuster, it's not a month, long process a month long process, because they still needed sixty votes to close debate. Yet but we have a number of years and who boy whereby asked why? This is why they want direct and bite and in particular, better Oh, you know more Kelly in Arizona will not directly answer that question. When voters or the media put it to them, will you eliminate to filibuster? Will you packed the Supreme Court? These are yes, yes or no questions that people run either running for office, for the Senate or for the highest office in the land literally refuse to answer. I am finding it
basically surreal that this is what voters actually want. Is I get there I'm I'm vague. You may project Oliver empathetic feelings and I'll, protect them back to you by your strategy, because it's obviously working for him, but we it's no answers to specific questions. Those are some of the most important questions on a lot of voters minds. I thought, and yet people seem to be willing to just it. Take the non answer an answer, so I actually wonder John. If you know they have man, and they are deliberately not gonna- spell it out until after after the election, because people do not seem to be pressuring them for for hard answers to very challenge. questions they will have an immediate impact on the country. If they enact these more radical policies will even personal wanted to tease out these two strands. So eliminating. The filibuster obviously requires a democratic Senate and they dont know if they're gonna get a democratic, sound,
I underline and just became toss up, though right. That's what I'm saying is answering the question when you actually don't even have the don't have enough information to suggest that you the appropriate amount of power to do what you might do if it's a controversial thing that seems to me to be politically prudent, like I'm not, the question of whether or not if this this other thing happens at the same that I become president we can do it that will do it, but let's say that binding said that he wanted to limit faster because of Republican was council transcend the inability to ever make a deal with Republicans were so terrible about making deals. One does not require, the other you do not have to pack the separate you do that you can be for limiting full buster. rightly so you can pass some amended version.
Green new deal without packing the Supreme Court. You don't have to do both and packing. This ring court in my. My guess is that the closer you get to the packing the Supreme Court, the or wildly unpopular. It is where they didn't know where the Bible have tested this and pull. No. It is talks, and so they don't want to go near it. So I think you can do one without the other than anyways. I know I won't packed the court which he refuses to way where he won't because he's afraid of the left exactly Iraq, there stood it. I don't think there may look. Washington is decided, the election is over, but Biden smartly is not behaving like it is One reason I think one reason he is continuing to go to the swings, dates and ease and he's continue to refuse this. Is they can't they are afraid of the city?
nation. That has happened for years ago, where the left of the left thinks that the Democrats of nominated some corporate shill who is just gonna, be a moderate and will turn out to vote, and so so why did he It recently you'd like we're not going to answer that question, because that would turn it into a political issue. Yeah well forced into political at my Radford from the habit but he'd, but he did that betrayed. I think this kind of unwillingness to talk about things that might alienates some part of his coalition and the truth is he does need that kind of marginal. You know I mean it three percent or whatever it is to stick with them in order to better in order to get past finish line. He's done. Some interesting brightens played some interesting games in the past week, though, and if you watched the town Hall lol I didn't, watch the whole thing, but the NBC Town Hall on Monday night,
I specifically said Not only am I not a socialist, I beat the socialist. I'm the guy who stopped the socialists from becoming the democratic nominee and now you're come at me in saying I'm. The socialist I our saviour of the country from the socialist that was interesting. Now it could have been out. I mean what Lord. He had. He knows who is talking to you know, that's the key. That's what's interesting and the speech yesterday at Gettysburg, essentially you know american division was, he is whistling to the left that he's not gonna betray them, while he is desperately trying as hard as he can to say to precisely those people that Abigail Spam and the moderates in the democratic coalition who are worried about their
position, because therein districts that more republican, that they flipped democratic and twenty eighteen. He is saying, I'm not your enemy doubt I am talking, I'm saying sweet nothing's in your ear about what America is and should be like, and I love America and I don't go with these crazy people and so far there is no aside from the enthusiasm gap. Strain on importing there's, no indication that he's losing the left of the left accept that he doesn't it people say. I'm gonna drag myself over, but brain over broken glass to vote for UA, but this only smart and interesting because he's being completely facilitated in doing it by the media that doesn't push him too to take a lane under normal circumstances, this would become fleetly, untenable and weak. Looking and
Wishy washy, I mean that that is what it is, its wishy washy, but it seems like a like some strategic triumph now because he's the the conditions are such that he gets away with a completely. How can I watch the town hall this morning and we were talking about stimulus, uncovered spending and, it's relevant in this socialism portion of the conversation going out whether he, what he's going to commit to don't want to read you this quote, because it deserves to be read, but guess what If we spend money giving tax breaks for a racehorse, we can get tax breaks for the kind of things that are out there that we're doing three martini lunch God almighty. Why can't we in fact give a tax break for people free access to health care of you in the middle of a colleague crisis? Now that was unintelligible, but if you were to Parsec already had the three martini lunch
We demand the goes just those the menu. I wasn't the order for tomorrow's tomorrow, but what is saying there is that all money towards covered- no, no, no, no dollar is not worth spending in the effort to stop covert wrong and free access to healthcare I don't know how you use suggest anything other than his teeth desirous of big spending bills when it comes to health care and govern and adjusted the general a general progressive programme there. But that's not you get out socialism, that's not that's, love, Bernie, Sanders and an air sea and the squad that Sir Hugh Humphrey Walter Monday, big governments. You know,
of including all the union stuff that met mention that policy wanted to shovel enter the relief bill come in and by the way that is a little journey back in time to the eighties, because the the evil one of the three martini lunch was one of these selling points of the tax reform bill of nineteen. Eighty six that he was. You know that he agreed to was all this with point to end I mean my got, you have no, I mean you guys. Some of you are really too young for this, but I mean it really was like three martini lunch. Is that this? no more you american taxpayers, and that could be paying for people's three martini what are they doing, I think of the end. They ended up. Lowering led the doktor deductibility of entertainment, expenses for meals and stuff, like that, from like twenty percent like you could. At some point that bill- and I think it's got gotten a lot more, but it was like a couldn't you
I detect a hundred percent of it of an entertainment meal, and then you could do it tat. Eighty percent, or at least of assuming there is food. The twenty percent was dedicated to at least one martini was therefore no under Gonna be tax. Let them all, but that's where you hit by the old guy you know, is when he starts talking about the three martini launch like we're like it's, like you, don't know, edibles three like what I mean this is twenty twenty. You know it well. I guess you know. No, you now know sir, What do you know what about? You can have a three martini lunch, except at home, where I got right: yeah you meet a twenty percent capacity or fifteen percent annually. Yeah by the way. So that was incoherent and here the two things that I think Biden is aside from the media, is going easy. I'm tromp has lowered the bar for coherence. Obviously, Trump is a word salad guy, you
He says that we don't know what he saying you give publish it. You don't know what you're looking at all that, so the baseline for coherence is now much much lower, particularly if you have a race between two even if the head to head between Mr Incoherent, MR and go here at them. The bar. Much lower if take away the coherence issue and you watch that town hall debate and the other by Miss Senile Hasta literally really has to be put back in the drawer. This is a cancer campaign and he is executing it as cannily as he can, because whether is older, younger son, like that he's a blathers Skype Idiot Biden. But he is sticking very closely to this line where he is
I'm hinting that I'm worth, but I'm trying to stay in the centre and I'm not gonna give those guys there were anything I'm gonna give any sharp edges for them to try to exploit, and he did it for nine. minutes like an urban. Whatever was wasn't and that you know getting, he went. He got easy questions and all that, but he still did it, and so you know that Turns out tat, I think, have been rather unfurl field for the Republicans and try to have ploughed so relentlessly. That bind was enough to the job.
I mean they would have done better. I think I guess I've got a job. I Mowbray sign up to the job. You never go back and look at even during the during his tour of duty, as vice president listen to some of the stuff. He said then verses now he is definitely slowed down. Constantly you know it may be just as a result of the natural aging process, but I think they would have done much. or to actually attack by the way. All of his democratic opponents in various presidential primaries over the year did, which is just what use head he's kind of idiotic when it comes to the details of governance and he and he does his, he has a persona that out. If you push out a little bed crumbles right, he becomes either thin skinned and defensive or he becomes incoherent and that still Biden he either that or like it mean Trump is not the person to it. There came substantively and unpolished, but in terms of personnel it he's also not an empathetic human being and the idea that that he has been able to embrace empathy as his brain
and has only happened because trumpet so entirely devoid of it. But I do think there were better ways to attack him in terms of his. Kind of like ability, slash persona, I mean we were obviously as the New York Times reminded us again today, not allowed to attack calmly Harris ever over anything, because that makes us racist and sexist. So you really you're just a horrible human being. If you attempt to critique her in any way shape or form, so I guess she just keep our focus on, which will be interesting in terms of looking at how critiques of her Foremans tonight, we'll play in the mainstream? Meet it's gonna, be a bloodbath, so speaking of Harris Vice presidential debate tonight, finally will have a freakish. My gases will have a frequently large audience for a vice president, given obvious reasons that we have Two three hundred and seventy five year old men running for office, and so we possibilities to them.
meetings to be succeeded are larger than under ordinary circumstances. Matt. What do you? What are you looking for aside from the the spit guard, the salad guard that is gonna be celebrating have risen the Harrison panics. It might be the start of the debate. I don't they here is a very good debate. Her, I think, tells me Gabert Plum extra several times when she was still participating in it she's, very good terraces at Cannes lines. I noticed in one of the ports that read that she's practiced a few zingers in our and use,
I just remember that was her. There was a moment in the first debate when she called Biden your racist or for defending bussing or being against bussing, rather in it in the nineteen seventies, at like the majority of Americans were at the time, though, at an elegant pants is a very good debate here and I think it's very hard to get underpants Askin as didn't evidence by the last, for you hurt he's better be the man whose common and control, unlike its boss, so near the interested in watching at that. I think I'm gonna come out ahead. What's gonna be interesting, though it is the extent to which hence is going to be put on the defensive about Trump Right supposed him
I'll, see, apart from what he's gonna be able to get in chipping away at a commoner, there's, there's gonna, be this could be served like this and we have an opportunity to ask the same person what what's going on with Trump feeling. you know she's gonna, look him in the eye and say: aren't you afraid the tea I could have infected you? Don't you realize he doesn't care about you? I mean growth without looking forward its can be interesting to see how he, how help heads of goes at that. His best tactic is to going off Anson make calmly Iris defend her attacks on the top of the ticket of which she is apart. So you can expect that by John observe the four years ago, my pants invented this entirely fictional there
Donald Trump and then defended that version. So that was maybe an easier task ahead of him if he were to adopt that sort of position today, if you if even bothered to defend the president's actions when it, especially when it comes to covet, because now that's a lie. That's on everybody's minds and b, where he performs according to every pull it. We ve seen on the matter really terribly, I We are going to see the issue that we have been talking about on this podcast as a dominating issue tonight, which is that came out and said he doesn't want to help the american people. He literally came out and said he doesn't want to help the american people he's not going to negotiate with the majority in the house on providing the car I hope that the american people need so desperately and they need.
Because he's mishandled mismanaged covered so much that he got it. I mean I'd its total this. What I'm hey. Here is the complete demagoguery, but it says it's kind of that kind of a gimme. I think and, in the end, the through wind up in her ability that, given this moment to connect all of these desperate strands, which of course, Bind tried to do in the first debate. an trumpeted not handled, is he was going at his own strategy, which was you know, this is your recession and an Trump unable to say this is my recession. I created the corona I created,
The economy without Corona was going grade and then Corona came. So your blaming me for a recession that Europe, yours Europe in a fever supporter lockdown does make it worse I couldn't even do that so now you have this. Just this opportunity has been given to it by these two things, it happened. One happened to drop in one trump did, which is that he decided to be the alpha mail on the on the ending of the negotiations that he then apparently went all crap. Maybe I shouldn't have ended them so quickly. Let me keep negotiating on twitter or an end, and the virus self, that that would be my presumption, but I am also thinking and maybe we can end on this. The line of the last twelve to eighteen hours in the press and in the reporting, sir, behind the scenes reporting, is that
the calamity that is facing the the Trump campaign are too worse, that are showing up in the polls and in private poles and staples and a national parliaments. Animals which is a meltdown of term support among seniors, and a gender gap, the likes of which, according Let him Alberta and political. No one has ever seen before in which particularly college educated women, who were Actually, you know who are actually often republican voters have gone in numbers away from Trump that are beyond unprecedented, and if that's true, then the polluter the strategy of the you can either lean into that to keep it going or you can start banking. Someone,
and then doing what we were talking, member for, which is going for the growing kind of for the Trump. and seeing whether you can knock some of those people away from him. Just really deliver the mark out blow. Go with the white you're going with some kind of message for the White Working class. I dont know what that is. If you were handled, I'm gonna. Take that message, I'm just accept back violating that yeah. What I like about this debate, as it will be not like a copy clash down at the Re Rogers were two guys start doing over what they did during the Korean WAR and everyone you ve got. It throws up their hands and said good night.
They had coffee goloshes Roy Rogers of lobbyists, while they used to buy my great uncle world were to better use to go to one when he visited seventy spit. In any case, this would be if we ll get like this picture of. You know what american politics was like prior to five years ago and what it might like it. What it might be like again and beginning in January, If this works out for Biden in a month, I'll just point out that we're recording is podcast on October seventh, two thousand and twenty. It was October, eighth, two thousand and sixteen when the access Hollywood story broke on the Washington Post and late afternoon, and Wikileaks that came out a few
player, and so I think there is a tendency. Look. Donald Trump is never let Joe Biden, so I would not be surprised if he is defeated and I would say I think the washing and press has completely committed itself to this and the idea that the election is over and done, I'm I'm I'm still not ready to. That is that merits that is so terrified to my liberal France? This is what's interested in the press corps in in the party line atmosphere that is twitter. If anybody where's the old party line, where are you now? Basically people, seven or eight people? In a name basically have the same phone number, the same phone line, and so, if you picked up the phone you get it somebody else's or you could talk to each other on the phone twitter is like
I am party line and they're all talking to each other in their all spinning themselves up into this them, never seen anything like this before, but I will tell you that rank and file ordinary liberals are scared to death of this assurance and when I say things them like. I don't know, maybe trumpets were there like, don't say that it because it's the evil. I am giving me it's every You may want as everyone here and if and if you say that you are going to summon karmic retribution, and they ll save me accusingly? You said the Hilary was gonna win and now look where we are like. I did it like. I did it because I, like everybody else, said Hilary. It was you're. Gonna win, it's my fault, my involved, because they confident, because of course, I thought Trump was gonna lose like everybody else and then, as I look,
but you know an end. So the idea was well. You Johns a conservative trumpets, gonna lose so therefore, we can be confident that he's gonna lose but which just say just for the sake of argument. Just to make the point that Biden is now over nine. In the appalling averages. The highest Hilary ever got against Trump was seven, binds over nine and he's got these and we will see an end to end. The state numbers are bad, so these will be safe to say that this vice presidential debate, if it matters, would be the first by presidential debate to really matter at the end, on election day. It might in so far as Joe Biden is an agent figure President, more so than Donald Trump is going to take on outside outsize importance. If she stumbles,
My answer is a calming figure. My pencil very composed figure quite on like the dynamic in the first debate were Donald Trump is frenetic and Joe Biden is just sort of over overwhelmed with frustration. come out. Hers is really easy to knock off message she's been, and her message is usually pretty poorly thought out. So there as you know we ve been debating here, was whether or not she's going to just stick to whatever the debate. Prep is adhered to. campaign line and not add lip, but if she has I have to cover their instincts, We make a fool of herself. It happened before that I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again and if she does, she could have a bad news cycle for herself and put in the button camp and on defence for a couple, a new cycles which would result in kind of phenomena that you're talking about John Absolute liberal panic and the press the perspective. The perception
the part that the election that is going the way in every observable metric, somehow slipping out of their fingers, will look the worst vice presidential debate before romance or the worst moment in the history of vice president, the essential debates I ended with the ticket that thereby president was on winning by eight points, so that was of course, Quail versus Benson in nice. Eighty eight Emmy you're no Jack Kennedy thereby was told act of political malpractice, because the line that that quail same experience in the Senate, as John F Kennedy had had, was something that Republicans had been retailing in the press for a week and so them republican prep, the Republicans prepping him for it, and then he set it right. He said it and
it never occurred to. The Republicans were prepping him that does Zanger. That Benson through at him was the obvious thing to say, meaning, really is so you're. You think you're John F Kennedy and they didn't prepping, which was an act of malpractice and also malpractice on on quells parts and of course he did say John F Kennedy with shot, which you know he didn't in the sense that he wasn't. I got a hero, we didn't you know man, captain a pity bout in world war, two they may have had other things, come common, Kennedy, but he didn't have that anyway, it's a servant, interesting thing that the worst Residential debate in american history ended up with a landslide victory for the ticket that the worst performing vice presidential candidate was on. So that shows you how much this?
this. This probably matters, of course, if she gives, if she provides a flood, will be the first bad new cycle that the binding team will have had in. I don't know how long and, as you know, in the in the idea that every day between now and the election you know who wins the day is gonna. Tell you where the elections gonna go It would be helpful to try to at least win win the day, anyway, makin daddy. Thank you so much for joining us. Man has a week we ever seventy fifth Adam three issues, commentary coming out at the end of next week.
Has a remarkable piece on commentaries story be asked as to voicing the good stuff wait till you read it Christine a noble due back tomorrow to discuss the debate. We just discussed, I probably less. Interestingly, once there is a debate them speculatively and for all of you, I am chump upwards. Keep the camera.
Transcript generated on 2020-11-05.