« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Inflation at Home and Conflation Abroad

2021-05-13 | 🔗
Inflationary signals are glowing red hot, and it’s starting to scare the markets. Will the Biden administration and Democrats be similarly spooked? Also, the contrived effort on the part of Trump critics to use the conflict in Israel to run down the Abraham Accords, which misunderstands their purpose.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the commentary magazine. Billy podcast today is Thursday. May thirteen twenty twenty one, I'm John POD words the editor of Commentary, as always, executive editor, a bring all tired. I jump. see you editor nor Rossman, high Noah. I got in senior Christine rose high, Christine so we ve been warning. We been telling you, we ve been warning you and now our warnings have come to pass. The Labour Department released inflation numbers
yesterday and they are way worse than anybody anticipated a jump of four point: two percent in April from a year earlier, up from two point, six percent for the year ended in March, so we have, we have increases everywhere in in in the cost of goods some arbe there. If there are some things that reserve I'd like not odd, but interesting, but dont. Don't really speak to a longer term problem like a ten percent jump in the cost of used cars which has a has various causes, but the point here is that this is happening, as the economy, of course, is heating. Up again and a lot of the spending that we are anticipating from the various
Biden bills and democratic bills has only just started so we can't say ah well. This is because look there's this there, one term infusion of government money into the economy. That is, you know, cause this this one time spike. It's not a one time spike. This money is gonna, be rolling through the economy for at least the next several months, and therefore there is no reason to believe that this these this jump is, you know, is anomalous. And its everything you know about inflation right, it's it's too much money chasing too few goods it sam. and then we have this whole issue of thee that we keep talking about. The competition government
growing versus private sector borrowing, government money versus private sector money government in the market be eating up goods that would also could be bought by the by the private sector and therefore competing for those goods, just happen outside the binding administration. Just started doing this. We through six trillion dollars into the economy and twenty planning right, but it is not. But what we have here is a jump in one month of like fifty percent and those who go from if you go from two point: six percent in March. The four point: two: seven April. You know that is not. That is not at on artifacts of twenty twenty. What happened and twenty is all this money came in for the government, because the gross national product gross domestic product had declined so precipitously because of the shutdown of work workforce. It did actually replace consumer spending. Re was able to your comment that money is not being spent the money that was passed.
Twenty twenty march of twenty trying in June twenty twenty is still being ruled out. It is, and we are now going to have another several trillion dollars that has been pumped in the economy and so ah the inflation Mary Spiral appears to have begun, and it's like one of those things which is its like acuity thing x. You know you do acts and why happen sooner will you revoke you end, bail and and people get out on the spot commit more crimes like these are things that you know a rational person who looks at things and doesn't you know there there's that great? Why by or well. You know some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual could believe them like you can serve. You can pretend make up theories because you one have large gum spending that large government spending isn't going to have an inflationary fact, but
need theories. You need to be kind of brilliant to sort of like over turn your eyes away from you know, from simple rash reality and come up with some arcane excellent, for why that isn't. What's gonna happen and that's partially, what is happening right now, but there is also the it there's something weird to about this particular moment because of the pandemic and the whole pandemic year, where I think a lot of Americans forgot how much we spent twenty twenty, so I'm glad nor burnt that up, but there was also a sense that you know what we're just gonna throw money at this problem, because this is an unbelievable problem. It's you know once in a while, regions or situation now, however, were coming to this point, where a lot of people and produce a lot of economists are looking at the. What's happening with the economy and that excuse no longer is gonna hold, as people wait, unites people governors restored pay more for everyday items. Is people worry about whether there
you know whether inflation is gonna get worse so, but the binding administration Ministration has a political investment in the idea of continuing the kind of this isn't week. We can't play by the regular rules. We have to do everything big and better and build back better and that's good. That's confronting reality. I think a lot quicker than this administration expected it to just with other the economic markers, as it was a very important point because what is binding say about his jobs bill in his whatever you want to call it. He says
this. This is a one to the generation investment right. That was not what current of irish spending was home. Our spending was the building is on fire. The money is the hope to put the fire out and then, of course, once the fire is out your kind of supposed to turn the hose off or you're gonna start you're. Gonna start, you know rotting the foundations of the building with the water that is being poured in there and and the one to a generation. Vestment thing is the same kind of language that Democrats try to use to justify large scale spending Bill Clinton. Did it in ninety ninety three: he was like it's a once in a generous investment. You keep reading pieces
VOX and various other places and that whole theory build that better. The like, we can't just go back to where we were at the beginning of the pandemic, because that was unacceptable. We need to be better than we were then. Well, you know the hell with you like that. Six hundred thousand people dying does not then give you licence to decide that you want to play all of your experiments that you ve been dreaming of playing with. You know with public money. You know that they are not dead so that you get to like you know, get
Like my child care, you know infrastructure, you note regarding the young, the of the idea that you have to be inventive and you have to be an intellectual to come up with arguments and justifications about why these policies are causing harm. The defence on the left, among people who believe in these policies is exactly the opposite. They say. Oh you know, conservatives will come up with these theories about how spending is going to cause
playshion. But this is just. This is just an academic stuff that we've seen this proven before, and they say that about minimum wage. You know, but it in reality that doesn't happen. It's it's! It's interesting that they play that game and it wouldn't activate there. They are the ones tat these experiments and that I am glad about the minimum wage, because that was one of those debates that was happening where that the systemic argument that the Democrats wanted to make in order to spend spend, spend an increase minimum wage matter reality. What more porters would actually go and talk to small businesses and say so you know you know. What's gonna happen when the minimal wasting kicks Melick, I already have the life you employs, go because phobia of paper rich at literally the actual data day, practical realities point- and this is that this is fertile ground for any conservative lawmaker ended
It's a shame, they're too embroiled in their own chaos to it to do it, but this is this is at the heart of the messaging of any good. Conservative movement is to say, look what look at what's happening to you, only in your community day by day to the price approaches. The price of gas. The waiter schools are teaching your kids it's all local and I do think the systemic arguments are extremely appealing, ideologues in and their very easy to message in the media, but they're not many, people's reality and that's the point where the Republicans really need is to serve arguing and Europe, but by is doing this by the way on the hiring crisis right he's. Take he got out there and said you know. well I don't see any. I don't see any connection between the relief bill and are hiring problem. You know, that's, that's! That's! That's a theory that people are floating around with head. That's not it! That's not what is actually happening when you find out
but it must be added and many and then he yelled at everybody. You said you'd better, be looking for a job because he understood because While they are, you know, did they they? They could not resist the temptation of this moment that was handed to them by Donald Trump screwing up the election. in Georgia and force and getting a hundred thousand Republicans to stay home and flip the Senate to the Democrats. And it keeps I'm gonna- say that every single time at this comes up, because I'm going to remind people that you think Donald Trump is so wonderful and again with the oh. So unfair, what happened to him and everything every single cent that is being spent that you don't want spend, is the result of him screwing up the Georgia specials and don't not specials the Georgia run off, and if you forget that, then you are being You are being not only historically illiterate, but you were being you were being a at an apologist for something that deserves no Apollonia.
So every cent that is being spent here you know what this is. They couldn't resist it, they couldn't resist it and so they're going to have to their pleasing everybody who voted. You know there fleas in a lot of people voted for them, but they're going to have to deal with the consequences of doing it. Just like the whole point is great cures, free money for everybody and everybody goes great, and then it turns out that seventy five to eighty percent of it is taken up by the regressive tax notices as inflation. So if you actually look, look at me think about it. If policies, if these policies are designed to help the least among us, that inflation is the most destructive force as you go down the socioeconomic ladder, because of course, roll toilet paper cost the same for rich person. That does
Poor person, so if it goes up, you know four goes up: twenty five percent for rich person. It goes up twenty right, that's like a coin in the pocket, and it is not. Twenty is not a point in the pocket for somebody who makes thirty seven thousand always a year that toilet paper cost twenty five percent more this week than it did last week at a regressive tax. It hits people unequally. It hits the poor and working class and Lord at class equally harder and you can throw all the money you want to act them and then you're just taking it away. With the other hand, you'll want to nobody wants inflation, I mean actually are people who think the inflation has a positive value in it. That's a whole other set Complicated arguments, but you know
and taken away from consumers, but that's unnecessary byproduct of unprecedented levels of public spending that are spent in this way. Right, I mean it's not like you could. In theory, goods are spent two trillion dollars and somehow give it to businesses to hire I'd. I've been added, there's a whole their way of thinking about this. It is different, but this was more like a Keynes Classic Keynesian some is put it in the hands of people and then guess what you know give it to them. While the economy is growing and heating up- and there is gonna- be this war over resources that, That is what we are seeing now and then and then unintended other things that happen where before the shell about this, a semi conductor shortage that term that has a raise the price of a part, the reason for the increase in prices of used cars- and we of course have the
the pipeline ransom where shut down that is caused to insert a surgeon in in gas prices this week. That supposedly is gonna end pretty soon. you know so that that may number that April number is gonna, be matched with them a number of those almost certainly gonna, be worse like of April, was you know four four point, two percent, It's gonna be worse than April, and so you know we are. People are gonna, start making personal decisions based on what we are seeing in their pocket books and at the at the stores and at the pump, and all that, no what's your what's. Yours on the political consequences of a lot of this is why I think that two things one pretty exasperates for democratic, shocking, the extent to which their idiot logically committed to their programme such to the point that they recognise the substantial political parallels ahead of them gallop edible
yesterday, showing that a full twenty percent, one in five Americans are having bang for food- that's deadly Justin, and they will not make fine distinctions about the political parties in power there the lash out at whoever is on the ballot. If that is the sentiment that prevails next November, but they can I get a reprieve in the form of republican governor? Is the politics of this are absolutely toxic to the point that there will affect everybody in anybody whose sentient knows it so, looking governors, if they have the potential to do this anti democratic governance, if have the potential to do, this are already scaling back. The excess benefits have been provided, for example, the people who are who are saying it The workforce in order to take advantage of increased unemployment, spending and that
relieve some of the pressure on this administration, probably not enough to be noticeable, but it tells you the extent to which this crisis is as a political crisis. Not just an economic matter is resonating in the political class, even if it hasn't yet dawned. The talking class and the commentary it will in the end, I think, than by diminish, straighten is kind of again so short term thinking in terms of its messaging, because, obviously, the concerns about in play. they ve taken them on board and they release paper by a couple. Their economies jeered burn, seen another guy and they ve they framed it offers. Oh, we expected this, it's just a transitory, so if it doesn't stop soon, that phrase was just transitory inflation. They told the working class couple who can't afford to buy groceries this month. I mean that is harsh and I don't think that was very smart. They have not responded. Well, you know. Lord summers gave a talk to the council for relations the other day and said
The alarm is flashing red and when he was told that the binding ministrations response was so it's transitory said now, I'm even more were given pardon me, I know, but like he he should they should listen to them. These are people on their side of the economic I'll. whether one thing I'll say about this as they placed a huge bat like they, so they decided to go all in you place a huge bad. You cannot understand that there are two sides to a bad right, you'll win and if you win, you win beg you could restructure american politics and you can go down. History books. As a transformational present, you can solidify your party's position for a decade to come at all that and if lose the bad you you you go down into. Ignominious decline, your name is kind of like becomes a oak and your party is a deeply deeply hammered end and am and has to recover from the public's a judgement of it? So you know in some ways it doesn't really matter what they say. They could say transitory or not. That could be something
They believe, or as summers worries it is, or it can be, as Noah says, gonna, like all sentient peoples from understand this. You know this sum this calculus and so they're, just basically Whistler saying whatever they have to say, tat dancing until the good stuff happens, that they can unambiguously take credit, for. We are talking about something so big that that the public will render its judgment. I mean tat betting with our money, so we shall write what right there Betty with our money, but I'm just saying like what their with their there. They ve placed their bet now they're trying to double down on the bat, which is something that you do because with the jobs bill, when all
because once you're at once, you're all in your all info. If you buy into this theory that this is all going to work- and you know end up like creating massive growth and you're going to like, provide all these goods and services to people and they're going to like it, you might as well keep going because what why why Do you now? Ok, so you're gonna you're gonna go bankrupt if the current bet as bad, so you might as well go bankrupt with an even larger pat, because maybe you know, if you double down on your inner, you double down on your gear, seven and, you know you get out, you get an event, may send you got eighteen, you ll, probably gonna win I've,
I don't know the answer and in part, because it it's a kind of a crazy proposition here, but how much of the bet do you think is on the idea that the policies will work and actually deliver for people or that the the policy makers will just be so beloved because their intentions were so good and so transformative and people seem to really be clamouring for it. Well, I think it's impossible to separate those out precisely because it improves the turing nature of what happened to the Democratic Party won the Ross and Georgia. Like you know, we are we talking about an entirely different set of political circumstances. Right now,.
if those races have gone. The other way of one of them had gone the other way and not boast, and- and I don't know what we would be talking about- but we wouldn't be talking about. You know two hundred and forty six trillion dollars and by the guy who ran as a kind of like saying you know like guy was going to sort of like you know, restore civility and cry. You now be boring and all that wouldn't have been seduced by the idea that guide the head arranged at such that he could be. The second coming of empty are Therefore, I dont know that there's anything all that considered here was more like hey. We can do this, I mean one thing they pops into my head is when Trump One and two,
sixteen, and you know he had said. Look I'm obviously him after go, give up my businesses and Bob. Why, whatever that and then he had a lawyer- and the word came to him and said you know what the way the executive branch of Structured and that the definition of the executive and all this you don't have to do. That is the law says you have to do that. On the contrary, if it's on the cards ocean. The Congress doesn't make laws governing the personal behaviour. The president I'd states really so you can do and then he was like a mug. I can do whatever I want. You haven't you remember this. He served gave a press conference. This lawyer delivered this. You know constitutional opinion of the president's of this question of conflict of interest, listen he's like I can do whatever I want grades. I'm gonna do I want now. You know it's kind of like that with with Buckingham after Georgia, where the Democrats after Georgia, like they, would
been restrained by simple political reality. Suddenly there like much less restrained and then they got. Of course they got that opinion from the parliamentarian who Sadly, I can do it through reconciliation. Do all of this through reconciliation me only fifty one votes and set a sixty, and then it was just like it. well now now its party time and that, in the end, hasn't happened because the dirty little secret of the democratic parties agenda is not that they can't get the sixty, but the king at the fifty run. No, but they got to fish they got to fifty with the guy was infrastructure. Parliamentarians verdict was on here structure. We got an infrastructure by yet bright, but fair enough. Ok, but I'm just saying like that was like who boy lets it? We can do whatever they can't get it. They can't get to fifty and infrastructure because of you know Mansion Mansion Cinema right. So we are, we find ourselves,
in an interesting like you know, that's the thing about politics: it's nothing is ever the same as anything else, and everything always has its own twist Obviously this is all happening at a time when the Republican Party is going through crucible with its owner. We can talk about that in a minute. Before I talk to you, of course, about our friends at heads space, I believe its head space. Let me just double check that arms was to talk to manhood space, because I love had space, and I am creature that case, but my brain is working all that well right now and yes, it is head space, so heads this I need had space, because it, of course, is the meditation apt and helps focus usefully helps you sleep. Helps you be better. Your daily dose of mindful is in the form of guided meditation,
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Any in saying that the being not defend a strengthened by the House Republican Conference- and she is now going on me in saying you know she will do everything in our power- not let our trump take over the party. The Donald Trump will use will try to destroy our democracy in order to seize power again and all of that, and what interests me about the about the weird republican response to this is that you ve got you ve got people like Bateson COS. like exulting exulting in her defenestration writer, young firebrand, do you know idiot the pots jerk
you know dancing on her behalf dancing on her leadership grave. At least. Let me ask you a question for a second so list chain. So if you are a Trump person. This treaty is basically saying I'm gonna fight, that's right, I'm gonna fight this and I'm not gonna. Let it stand to do it. I can't fight. Why is it something that does that bothers you? So let us fight it. According you, she's got no scandal. Troops problem Poverty is a Trump party trumps, the king, everyone every need shall bow, so let s do it do it, then he can some one per want her followers post he can climb on their shoulders and Green Owen.
And say you know I am the king of the world again and use that to you know, control the party run again, two thousand and twenty four, and when what? Why are they not say we welcome it? Literally, you could say we welcome this fight, because this is a fight we're going to win. I don't need you know they want it, bring it on no problem for me where the winners, it's a very think about it. For a minute. Like that's They're doing anyone got NEA response. I wasn't the whole thing here that you know they didn't really want to talk about twenty any more and in our. She doesn't like China. Doesnt represent the conference because all she does
talk about how they know that the election was stolen and that really does an entirely compared with the party's position now want to move on from it, but also all recounts and also you know, all the legislation around making sure that balloting use is totally genuine and transparent and net free from fraud, and also the former Present United States bang than those from all the time. and I get a Mccarthy comes out yesterday and says: listen with I'm going to meet the president today is written there. That's the president world. This is over right behind us, but less China didn't represent the conference because she was saying. The same thing that the elections over Joe Biden, President cylinders confused as to really what the problem was here it did, she not represent the conference's views, does the minority leader not represent the conference's Venus whose views are not being misrepresented here I mean. The whole point here is: that is that this shows you. You know you,
What is the Trump administration and say it had these creative policies that did this? It did that you know stuff that it didn't get credit for from the Abraham Accords, which will talk about later to warp. Speed to you know various other things right Trump himself, the thing that thick he was fixated on has always been fixated on. Employees we fixated on is his own are more proper that that that is what that is. What matters to him, and it is it is. You are either somebody who needs to him or he, your somebody that he needs to destroy and their debt doesn't really seem to be much difference,
and it is that it is the animated source of his passions. And, oddly, you can understand it right, you can understand, could go through a hole. You know pop psychology thing about what it is narcissism in the absence of hard to hard father. But what a? Who cares that this matter? It's weird for other people too, to be to be motivated by the same emotional force that he is motivated by, because you can understand how a jazz him in his soul-
But it does how it how it gives him the free saw that he needs makes them feel alive and all of that. But these are people porn here, even though they have their own things that they should be promoting which, like their own, feel themselves. You know it's like an that's, but that's a good point, because they also know occurs. We seem like sort of early pulling at you, don't take it with great insult, etc, etc, about what voters like they liked a lot of trump arab policies, while disliking trumps, personal style, so it I've got no alike. Why it's baffling that they are that the republican leaders are saying we can talk about trump anymore. Actually, you should only be talking about the policies which it which still give credit to tromp, because he was the president who was in office when they, when some of these things went down. That's fine like there.
is a way to kind of try to thread the needle. I'm not saying it's ethical and moral to do such a thing as a strategy, strategic measure that would actually reach a little bit of the venom of trumps personality for the future elections. They're not doing out either, but there are those who visible activist class on the right liked his style, whether policies or any policies for that matter. They'll do likewise affectation his prickly need he didn't give one inch to any of his critics, but we have actually, if they went right, logical or based in anything resembling a shared reality, that's what they like writing everything a fundraiser and that's literally listings biggest problem she's an impediment to fund raising goals. Ok. But here and you know what I'm sorry, I'm just can actually more knowledge eyes a little bit here, he's inside the building, poor sense, machinations about how she was just a really prickly personality and people couldn't really deal with. Her is just glory
because this isn't happening because she's, a jerk it allotted jerks in Congress. There's a lot of people who don't deserve to be leadership worse still in leadership, and it hasn't nothing This is not happening because she's opinion in the, but this is happening because she saying things that don't comport with women Trumps unreality has preferred unreality as and anybody who is trying to peddle this notion that she wasn't a good representative, the conference, because she says exactly what they all think, as evidenced by what the minority leader said yesterday is just peddling trash to try to get around the fact that this is a carcass of quisling. Ok, but you know: here's the interesting figure told by the policies, a mob, email and trump enormous trump doesn't care about the policies. How do you notice Trump could be walking around taking a victory, lap and joining in the fight to vaccinate. By saying I made these vaccines happen. That's me ever
time you get a meal in your arm. You're you're, like you're you're, doing me a solid your Europe you're making clear. I did this I'd me me me me me right: that's the policy vanity or the policy narcissism that does not motivate him at all. Liking pensions that on the fly every now and then what it thinks about it, or some like that, his that his it's all negative, it's all about beating somebody else right, it's not about having accomplished something. You know unprecedented, that he deserves credit for and that if he pushed his credit for it, it would make the people who would downplay or Poohpooh, it looks small, they would look small, they would look petty, they would look like they were ungenerous, and this is the kind of way in which he could we build his reputation in some
fashion- write em in that we have one pull out from NBC. That says, he's now its thirty two percent approval, having one new. Nearly forty seven percent of the vote is now thirty. Two percent. Now we don't know pulsar bad relatives are unaccounted all of that. So you wanna take that with the grain of salt also, but he could be pushing that and he doesn't, because what he wants is revenge. What he wants is- and he wants some kind of it- is better for him that people are compelled to say, the two plus two week was five, that the election was stolen, that what's going on America. County is noble with this ridiculous recount that is going on by the cyber ninjas and all of that, because that is true, fealty making somebody say that they believe something false, because they don't want to make you mad. Now that somebody
Oh, you have cowed and have an all right you once about owning the lips. This is owning the cons, and that is his. That is really where I think he is and, like I say, if you weren't, he would welcome the fight he would say. Well what do you have to say about anything? The I'm right, you're warmonger ain't, you you're, the one your family rob took us into Iraq. As on Iraq was stupid. What did you do about covert? I did operation warp speed. What did you do? Did you do anything? I don't think so right did you do the Abraham accords? I did the Abraham courts. Is that what he's doing know what he wants to have everybody destroyed? So they don't even let him beat in some odd what it out in it in it, in a fight about the future and policy, the policies for Trump and for his followers
are pure byproducts, they ve them. The main thing is the style is, is the temperament- and we know this for several reasons, because trumps followers went from defending him on warp speed before the vaccine came out. To being kind of crazy about vaccines once he was out of office right and if you are a true trump fan- and you hear from people like me, for example, who said a who are perfectly willing to praise an array of truck policies. That gets me no credit with em is my praising the man right cause. Here's how this goes because look I didn't of operation worse began. I move Heaven and earth to make sure that we had these these vaccines gal well, but you downplayed the virus initially Nathan
No, I didn't. I always knew that the virus was was a terrible thing and I am what I did everything I possibly could stop it. Well, here's what you said here hearing here now I didn't say that and then it comes argument over another unreality because he doesn't like me: doesn't he can't stand even among the most minor admission of fault? In any any aspect of his life- and that is what consensual because he will never let it go fair enough. But I'm just saying I just think it's an interesting weakness that their showing, because they could actually- and if you thought about this politically in the long term, having a fight inside the Republican Party an actual fight over over whether Trump was a good or bad. President in policy terms is a fight that Trump could probably win and would actually do more to reestablish his reputation
reputation or to get him back to par, at least if that's really what he wants. But that's the reason That's an area comes to mind is because you were you introduced it by saying trumpets. I well yeah. I thought a rapid stupid. No, he didn't you didn't. the record is extremely clear about what his views were on the war, but it has become this sort of assumed reality. That is false, totally fabricated that he was somehow skeptical of this sort of thing let us just because he repeated it so often that we now all share his own false, no version of reality, I also know that the policy must not matter, though the fealty and loyalty to tractors, because Stephan, accurate gonna take it likely get it replaced. Cheney is
two more moderate, a conservative been changed. Herself was on policy matters right, she's, not she's, she's, just a much more moderate Republican than than Chinese. If we care, if it was about policies, republican values, you know you got the watered down version now, but because she you know that the data trump she's better interim too, Yeah, I'm a conservative politics, a more popular republican, pronounced by definition, a more liberal Republican, yeah, but I'm in aside and liberal, because it also anti redress- or maybe that's all, that's all progressive. This is a good way of putting it okay, so let's move on to one as we as the year as the barrage of rockets from from Hamas, continues into its a third or fourth day.
We are seeing a very interesting efforts to read con. Ah, the most successful foreign policy of the Trump Administration, Ebby Wanna weathers hundreds of job, just trying to think of of the various places we sit well that the Washington Post MAX boot. But a calm about how the the fighting in Israel now servers those that be the Abraham accords are dead letter or something I have to.
Our dash unfollow logic there, and that has been on the line that we ve seen now proffered by that Anti trumps serve all over the place, and it is, of course, on its face and deeper down a preposterous assertion, because the Abraham accords were designed and accomplished and continue to reap the benefits from Israel normal, relations with the arab countries in the region and that that is on going. It was its. I got an example for you go ahead. Young Michael Crowley is the New York Times diplomatic correspondent who wrote quote. Tromp officials often insist.
but they don't get more credit for achieving quote peace in the Middle EAST. We are now seeing why the Abraham cords normalized Israel's relations with arab states, with which it was not actually in conflict, a worthy project that, skirted smouldering palestinian dilemma that has again erupted. The entire point of the ram courts was to decouple the foreign policies, the geopolitics, said, the Sunni Arab States, from the conditions on the ground in the palestinian territories and in the next sitting where they reside in Israel, and it was spectacularly were set were successful because of that that isn't in unintended consequence it wasn't an oversight, it was the entire project and by the way, Regarding what's happening in Israel now the Abraham Accords, are also successful in that the arab countries involved want no part of of the of the palestinian side This is a nice girl. You know the Michael Crowley Point here is that you know
Yet. Another example of these serve a historical, Anti historical, anti knowledge, a way in which this stuff has talked about because the idea that Israel was not in conflict with the twenty two arab countries that surround it, Is sheer insanity the existence of that phalanx against Israel was the defining fact of Israel's existence for at least sixty years because of the implacable hostility of these countries against Israel, even if they were not actually literally at war, though they work in several wars. Israel could not establish or maintain decent relation.
With countries all over the world that feared the oil power of the Middle EAST and feared that they would that that any kind of normalized relation with Israel would would result in terrible consequences for their economic life, blood and so a key goal of American. formed world foreign policy has been to create a more normal existence in the Middle EAST, so that this bizarre, you know, sort of like War of all. Arabs against Israel did not play this role. This kind of distorting, weird role in how world politics was handled and you could make the claim that the ever am accords only happened, because all of that was
happening already that it was. It was a kind of them a ratification of of existing. We world phenomena over the previous twenty years. But why meaning that the this was a natural progression. The pre much started in the early two thousands and then moved onward, but why did it start? Why did it move on? because the Palestinians rejected statehood. The Palestinians rejected statehood. A deal was made for statehood at Camp David and they rejected it and started a terror war in response, and from that moment onward, the narrative that Israel was oppressing, the Palestinians started to spring leaks all over the place, and then- and this is the most important aspect of this
But people saying the occupation must end. This is all about the occupation, Israel, decoupled pulled out of the Gaza Strip in two thousand and five. My nephew pulled Jews, my nephew sweeping as He did it as it is a member of the idea of Paul Jews out of their homes through the window when they wouldn't come out in order to remove them forcibly from homes that they establish eight thousand people in Gaza so that they could be destroyed. So that said that the Gaza Strip could be made Union Rhine, an israeli free, it was. It was the deal? Disengagement, total right? The rockets are launching at Israel and landing and hitting buses and being- and you know, and and causing people to live in, shelters, lawless, because Gaza is not under israeli dominion,
Because Israel, not their Hamas, collected thirty thousand rockets, thirty thousand rockets, because Israel is occupying the place in the world that Hamas controls. This is psychotic madness, well, meaning that the occupation, which is now a term that just referred to the fact that the state that the Palestinians rejected has not yet been created. This is what we hear from absolute normal then tional people who know nothing, but they just you know they see something on Tik, Tok and at all fine. But this is our friend deal. I lay Governd. Bloomer has a great column today about about this, because in his argument, which I think it will mean will see if this plays out, but it has a compelling element and is at the helm, strategy of always claiming victory by by launching rockets at Israel. It might not work this time because for all the reasons that you just laid out amusement twenty years ago, we're deficiencies with George W Bush, but twenty years,
Saudi Arabia was also raised up about it. You know placing phone calls in the: U S and saying you better start, and they are not doing that now because of the Abraham accords because of the shift in the region, and I think the it's why you see an escalation of the rhetoric. that occupation and even apartheid among the active his class, I mean that's it active desperation on them. Report, and I I don't think it's going to mean it's gonna continue to be popular in the progressive enclaves of the: U S like college campuses and whatnot. But it's not having a diplomatic effect. As far as I can see. What will look? Let's talk about. Let's talk about the progressive response, because something is astonishing. happened in New York yesterday, Andrew Yang, who is the leading Canada is still, I believe, as the leading in the polls in the New York City mayors, race, who tweeted out on Monday at statement of support for Israel, which I think we talked about the other day,
You know your city, twelve percent, jewish up to twelve percent jewish. Well, like important building block. Alexander cause, your tears tat, also congressmen from New York City, attacked him right. It said it was shameful that he had that he had tweeted this without reference to the suffering of the Palestinians and aunt em and on all fit all this stuff and Yang yesterday, apologized he apologized for his tweet said it wasn't. You no complaint didn't reflect the complexity of the situation, He said his creates were right. Ok, so. So we are now in a circumstance in which the the a young star of the Democratic Party
literally drawn a moral equivalence between Hamas and Israel between a terror state and a democratic state. We are at a time of testing for the by demonstration by the way, it's important to say this, because people don't like it when I say we get male where people so far. It is passing this test. It has not yet gone into. A both sides must show restraint game because Yet in fact so the soap released statement saying that Israel has every right to defend itself and see once again attack that and said it shameful that burden. But this is not neutral language she said
It shouldn't be neutral language, and we should be thankful and applaud the fact that it wasn't neutral language right. So I think basically, where, where were you. I think we all expect that the longer this goes on, the less binding people will be able to hold to hold on to this position. Just me, because of that the natural tendency to say look, I'm in the point is like. I look help us out here. Like your, you give me a lot of trouble and, of course, baby. You know like was happy. They give Obama trouble and, as I don't think, is happy to give birth to a who knows. What's gonna happen The way you can kind of getting kind of say, look where your friends, we gave me three billion dollars like like in a way off If you don't lay off any get mad write another, not
doing that end and with which the progressives yelling about Israel's misbehavior, suppose it must behaviour, Biden is going to feel the pressure, and it was interesting I see that he is now spent seventy two trillion gazillion dollars and Elsie by he doesn't by peace. Romeo see at all like she's, not saying my god that that infrastructure, billiard proposing is really great. I'm not gonna jelly. You about you now, because your leader of my party- and I don't you know and and- and you know thanks a lot for me- you're doing who now I have every reason to believe you'll cave and but there is them, then the fact of the matter is the view is different from behind the resolute desk and one of the genius events that has been precipitated by the Abraham Accords is the fact that the Sunni Arab states were placed their geopolitical balancing.
at their with from Israel, Palestine with ran and ran the executor of this hostile action around pay for every single rocket. It's raining down on Israel right now, IRAN is celebrating every act of violence that is being precipitated by its proxies in Gaza and in the West Bank increasingly, and the GEO political constraints that are imposed Washington, which has to balance its interests in all these capitals in Morocco and so irradiating, United Arab Emirates in Bahrain and our in Jordan, etc. Proof constraints that, to a certain extent, because is there to come out with moral equivalency is it rises, their position in the broader Middle EAST and don't forget Turkey, because there is some evidence that Turkey is, which is also a kind of sponsor of Hamas.
Now an avowed enemy of Israel as an enemy of the United States by the way? Despite a weird? U S, efforts to suck up to everyone, Turkey may be playing playing its hand here in Gaza. We're gonna learn more about that. In the end, the days. Is to combat, in which case we have here is not David verses Goliath, but a version of the version of granted. This is like the grand game and with this is that this is an international This game involving Israel, the United States, Turkey and IRAN. This is not just you know, which, which only highlights the success of the Abraham Accords here, because if it's a good round game they ve, yet we ve taken those countries out of the earlier.
So much better play risk, because some of the other groups who have fire out of the other side created a block that did not exist. That is non aligned with Washington interest. Will it that's gonna be tested? Also by how long this lasts whoop I mean I I I think it will be enduring, but you know you can't you can bet on that. I just think just as it does to finish this out, that you know the the classic image of the palestinian oppressed by by by an Israeli is a kid with a rock who, through the rock at at at at at a soldier and then get shot right. That's an end. You can understand shit. Throw Iraq, did it. But you know that that that is something that kind of image of that thing, that emotionally devastating, and it's hard to argue again whatever you know, sir, come up with a long, complicated, comic splash of why this happens like this. This is.
This. These are. These are missiles being fired at people. Ok, the Israelis, when they went on to the Temple Mount on Monday right, they were using we bullets, cannons woods
smelly, water and stuff like that that they work that's up, doesn't look good right, doesn't look at the way. The whig cops putting them a riot, never looks good, including you know when we see it in the american Twenty twenty like it doesn't look good, even if its necessary firing rockets at cities doesn't look good, never looks good eye. When does it look good thing about the rocks they're not throwing rocks because they only have rocks, they have rockets their throwing rocks because the images so effective right, but that when they were just first throwing rocks and nineteen eighty seven in the first intifada, they really did only have rock so they had rocks, and so that was that was a very effective. You know that with there was something very emotionally effective about that. You know we are doing what we can literally David Verses,
Liath right now, David takedown Goliath with slingshot, so that that was an image that was very carefully crafted, but cleverly crafted to get people on their side emotionally and Hamas. Unless you are committed to a different narrative about everything that you already believe. It's just not the same end and every foreign minister in the world can serve undersea can go back. You can say look, mothers would happen if somehow, the the rules of the road between Israel and Palestine, Israel, the Palestinians were different and that obviously true. You can't they are what they are and you deal with reality as it is, and you have rockets being fired by the way these people have all these some. You know
ambassadors and diplomatic staff in their living in TEL Aviv and their running into the shelters. Dont think you're not like. Oh you know what this is all about: Israel, I'm sitting here, my desk, like you, know, every person who works, namely the american embassy, but words that every embassy is not there embassies not tell me any more, but I mean it needs to shallow, but there is also the possibility that now the satisfaction that is derived from dragging the dragon down Abraham Accords isn't that it's a logical assessment of their efficacy. but that is just an digs into trumps. Legacy will naturally automatic link. The game was given away. By. Might my friend David from old friend of mine, I love this
so there, but he sets a Lego Jared cushioning now here now. Oh good work Jared cushion her okay. So like really honestly, like jar cushion somehow at now, Dolly Abraham Accords didn't work according to like Michael Wet, but their sort of at fault. So it's like a great. Let's just forgot, awaited talk crap about generic cushioning. Now really like? That's when you deal with Algeria when you have, like you know, juice under under attack, bye, bye, bye Rockets, that's like bad bad form very, very, very bad form and with that will see again tomorrow for April still, no one jump on towards keeps camel burning.
Transcript generated on 2021-07-26.