« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Living Through History

2020-08-14 | 🔗
The historic announcement that Israel and the United Arab Emirates will pursue a peace accord reflects changing dynamics in the Middle East that the European and American left simply refuse to acknowledge. But there will be no turning the clock back.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily podcast today is Friday August Fourteenth twenty twenty and twenty John Pub words. The editor of commons here with me as always associate editor nor Rossman, high Noah, Hydra senior writer, Christine Rosen high Christine and the author of our blockbuster peace now commentary magazine dot com. Yes, this is a revolution. Executive, editor, a green waldheim hygiene join the already fifty thousand people who have read apes peace just in the last twenty four hours,
swell their numbers, be provoked, be worried, be stirred to action by yes, this is a revolution. A commentary magazine dot com read it now also there a very fine blog posts by our own, no Rossman about the remarkable diplomatic GEO political development. Yesterday, the surprise normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates as brokered by the Trump administration. Let no ass. We go through the details, but here is the here is the bottom line. The bottom line is that for fifty years or more, it has been asked.
Thematic in the world of conventional foreign policy. Thinking that there could be no normalization of relation, between Israel and its arab neighbours, or the arab countries around it, or in the Middle EAST without a final resolution of the problem of is and the Palestinians. This is as holy Writ as Holy Writ gets in foreign policy. It has never been true. Every break through every change in the Middle EAST has involved things happening without respect to the resolution of the problem between Israel and the Palestinians, the peace Treaty with Egypt, the Peace Treaty with Jordan and now the new,
Sexual relations with United Arab Emirates, which follows seven or eight years in which, as we know, a really really five years in which, as we know, privately quietly behind the scenes in hundreds of ways, great and small, there has been an entente between us, real and they sunny arab nations, for which the credit as no one will now, I think, lay out, may were down to the benefit of Barack Obama. Although not for the reasons that Brok Obama believed that he deserved diplomatic, credit in the middle. Quite the opposite, Noah Short! Well, it's! So if you give, it came up foreign policy and academia or in the practice of foreign policy, every practitioner of our foreign policy believe themselves to be slaughtered
this stayed convention and consensus. Even if there are the upholding convention and consensus, they really believe themselves to be bucking it because it all deserves to be overturned and yet, as you say, There has been this and it is an inviolable idea that persists today that the key to peace in the region is the resolution, all final resolution of the palestinian question and nothing will move this that doesn't resolve itself. To its great credit, the Trump Administration came into office almost four minute one and rejected this idea. Early and pursued with great vigour, the sort up unconventional unspoken by a series of mutual defence agreements and intelligence sharing relationships between Israel and its Sunni Middle Eastern partners. Outside of the who states he said that border either Israel or the palestinian territories, Jordan and Egypt, which had previous pieces with Israel?
and this relationship has been developing for quite some time over the course of the Trump administration it had become quite public in twenty eighteen. Benjamin Netanyahu visited on mine for the first time since in this first, prime minister to do so since nineteen eighty six that same year, Saudi Arabia allowed israeli downfall, to travel over its airspace for the first time in seventy years last October, Dubai announced that it would allow Jerusalem to participate in the twenty twenty World Expo on EU soil and then is really stably diplomatic ties with Chad and in ensuring that Europe has been traveling all over North Africa. So this warming of a relationship had been visible for awhile. If you're willing to see it- and it was made possible- as you say by the forty fourth Is it in efforts, isolate Israel to reconfigure geopolitics in the Middle EAST and to empower and embolden IRAN and its proxies, and that scared the heck
and every Sunni state in the region that the while administration essentially turned a rack over to IRAN as a proxy created a real threat on the northern border of Saudi Arabia, manifesting in and facilitating their insurgency in Yemen, which goes on today, and this is really a back proxy that is going on fires, missiles and salutary it's a real threat to its to instability and regional stability and american interests and in the street, so yeah. This deal was a long time coming man, it is remarkably beneficial for Israel. Israel gave up. Almost nothing, the. U. I agreed to the re establishment of diplomatic relations with a framework for bilateral relations will invest in the cook covered nineteen vaccine I'm going in Israel. Will both have direct flights to and from each other's territory and an exchange. Real dropped, a net now
promised to unilaterally and its Palestine in territories in the West Bank, which was never going to happen outside of a framework of pigs? I don't think that was ever going to happen. That was ok, let's ok, so so that we can move on to that general bit going green genetic include this thought, that's a fig leaf and it allows two by two saying: you know we got something for our troubles and that's all the rest of the Sunni States will likely need to follow suit. Our cushion or teased yesterday that there was gonna be another city state that would produce kind of storing relationship like this, I dont know if that became essay, but they're, probably no meaning the kingdom of Saudi Arabia arrive there, probably not all that far out. So yes, this is any possible shift and how we understand geopolitics playing out in the region to the Palestinians,
It is no longer the obstacle to peace. Everybody in the United States in Europe, who maintains that belief, is be raft of evidence to support it. It is a religious conviction that this point rightly always obstacle, but the region has moved on now. Here here is the the discrediting of a central convict of american foreign policy that has been going on going now for twenty years, the central conviction again being that salute solving this problem was the only key to stabilizing the most destabilizing region on earth. In twenty seventeen or twenty Eightth email account. When the United States recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital, the entire foreign policy establishment in
he didn't leave as one said that there were going to be powerless and terrible consequences from this: the arab street, this the street, the arab street, the Palestinians, the Arab Street Street, the street, the street. You know what happened nothing, you know. Why did they know why nothing happened because the air three doesn't give a damn about the Palestinians, the Armstreet Street never give a damn about the policy. The absolute was a fiction created by dictatorial regimes to create the image of populist pressure to support. Foreign policy goals. There is no arab street. There never was an arab street on the palestinian issue And, what's more I mean we're talking about integration right and how destabilizing that is. The Trump administration recognised is really sovereignty over the Golan Heights to the sound of silence. But you know that
in itself, as it is a very good example of what I am talking about is so we did not recognise Israel. Sovereignty on over the Golan Heights When did Israel actually annex the Golan Heights in nineteen? Eighty one one height is but a part of Israel. Since nineteen eighty one ten thousands of people live in the Golan Heights. There are wineries and the Golan Heights thereon get out there are being bees and the Golan Heights. The the the idea that this area that has essentially been part of Israel for forty years was somehow in a suspect category because it had been claim by Syria, which did I actually have any right to it whatsoever under any international agreement. Is an eerie parallel to what happened with the West Bank.
And why this argument about annexation should be more open than people realize it is. I think I think practically it's a terrible idea, but nobody as as Eugene Contra, which is written for commentary and as everybody who actually understands how these things work as a matter of international. Nobody has sovereignty over the west, pink except the Ottoman Empire which no longer exists. There is no legal framework for these sovereign existence of the West Bank of the Jordan River period, and so this is a territory that is owned or contained or in the ambit of any one, which is why, in theory, if there is a peace deal, it makes a great deal of sense.
For Israel to see that, because it is not part of Israel yet at its not part of anybody, yet right, but There are areas of the West Bank that Israel has moved into, particularly the area called the Cushats e on, and there are various other basically suburbs, with tens of Dozens of people live and have live now for many decades. That will not be seated to the Palestinians all of this, so that he saw the whole notion of the annexation of the West Bank or not and talking about the annexation of the West Bank. We are talking about the areas of the West Bank Israel will annex if it next to them, which it now says you know it delaying or path, postponing or something like that areas,
Israel will never give up the whom never be given up. It would be like giving up co, OP city in the Bronx and giving it to California. It's not gonna happen. There are too many people living there who have sunk to many routes. That's a fact on the ground and we have been living in a world in which the pc view of talking about this, is to pretend that none of that is
or that Israel's central claim, which is that it is not responsible for the hostilities, tensions and statelessness of the Palestinians, but that the Palestinians are responsible for their own statelessness that had they agreed one thousand nine hundred and forty seven to the to the partitioning of Israel had they agreed after one thousand nine hundred and sixty seven to a international peace, that led to the famous three goes that too, that the arab states delineated had they agreed and ninety ninety eight and in two thousand to the state offered them by a hood Brok, They agreed in two thousand and eight to the state practically offer them by all merit it would have a state and so
What is happening now is that the conversation The Middle EAST has moved on their hopeless their useless. They are paralyzed and school erotic and they have nothing to offer. Anyone except the suppose it injustice of their treatment by the world. Well, tough, because they do nothing to improve their own state. They do nothing to improve their own lot. They do. Nothing except make war when they are in a position to make war, and so the conversation has moved on and how is it? The house have moved on its moved on to you know. What's that
first thing in the Middle EAST are on. You know: who's against IRAN, Israel. You know who blows up things in Tehran. We don't really know, but let's say it's is real. You know who's going to retard around nuclear program, which is going to threaten the arab states, the Sunni Arab states, and particularly Saudi Arabia, as much if not more than threatens Israel is real. You know who we have common cause with. You know who we don't like real, but you know what we like them a lot more than we like the Shiites, who want to destroy us, and you know who else doesn't like you know who else doesn't like Israel, Hamas and how does the regime in Egypt look look upon Israel? Now it looks upon Israel as an ally in the two front war against Hamas has Hamas is trying to destabilize Egypt and each doesn't like Hamas and Israel doesn't like Hamas. This is a real world
politics this is there and that's that's for reflection of how blinkered the foreign policy consensus is in the west on this issue is really just have to be observant. See that the actual arab Street has been in revolt against array. An influence around the region. For years now out were in the streets, dramatic revolts, against raining influence in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Bahrain and All these places just seem to be ignored in favour of the notion that there is some sort of an ideal Tuesday consensus on what you have in in the palestinian territories are three states knew how the West Bank, which is allied much more with the Sunni States in Gaza, which is an iranian proxy stay protectorate, There is now there's no shared political consensus there's no shared political culture. This notion, foreign policy. There are two distinct political entities at this point up, don't don't forget the iranian street
which has been arrested and has been you, know in a sort of state of, frozen revolt, I'm for years now and his long tired of the scapegoating of Israel in IRAN. This huge blow to the regime in IRAN in that respect, and that Iranian who are already over there. The regimes in car but it's cruelty and scapegoating of Israel. Now look at other at at at at arab countries in the region, who are whose people are thriving, whose whose systems are infinitely better making common cause, making peace with Israel this this this. This is a further domestic problem for the iranian regime and there's no great love for it.
Real among Sunni Arabs or she ate or for that matter, and they understand that the existential, immediate threat to life and liberty is turann. There is an interesting way, I think, to Johns pointed the Palestinians will do anything for anyone. There is the sense in which, oddly they are starting to become, they are starting to do something here. United States, domestically and politically in terms of the realignment of our politics, and that is that in recent months it's become even more a vote, all part of the progressive liberal activists platform to two conflate palestinian crisis, with the crisis facing black Americans in this country, and you see it particularly among the squad receded, leave you alone, Omar Alexandria, Cassio, Cortez, deliberate
It trying to claim that you know suppose it oppression of Palestinians with the oppression of minorities in this country, and that is going to that that poses a continue challenge that I think, actual increase, as the actual geopolitics of the Middle EAST should dramatically. That's can become more of a problem for Joe Biden who, who issued a pretty supportive statement about about what the Trumpet administration accomplished yesterday, which is less land, is completely unhappy with an incomplete denial about two Democrats were primary, basically or Miller stance in Israel right. This is a very, but you know it's fascinating when you think about it, because you have a wholesale shift towards an anti Israel position in the Democratic Party just as empty and at with the focus turn on the suffering and injustices done to the Palestinians, just as the entire planet is going in
other direction. I mean it is you can say that you have? This? Is american exceptionalism at its final, in that sense that for many years, America the only country on earth that supported Israel at every the country on earth hated Israel so get out with we. If we end up being the only granted that Europeans are going to continue with their nonsense, blather idiocy about the Palestinians, all of which the system if sucking up to their own anti semitic populations and trying to give themselves and out on their own shameful history of Anti Semitism. Nonetheless, inches of its is an interesting example, something is also an interesting example of the fact that again, the credit do Brok O. Is that He made it clear both to Israel and to the world. First, Israel known to the world that America could not be relied upon forever
To be a friend, and so Israel needed to stop thinking about itself solely in terms of its relationship with the United States and reach out Bout find other alliances go to Africa, go to China go around the world and see whom they could make common cause with, in the event that the United States turned against Israel. A precise same revelation dawned on Riad, that's an inaccurate, yet that's exact! Well didn't wasn't quite the same time. Euro, sorry item by the time twenty fifteen rolled around and the United States had effectively said that IRAN could have a nuclear bomb as long as it you know, pretended to delay its efforts to get a nuclear bomb so that Brok Obama, could get the credit for preventing IRAN from getting a nuclear bomb while they were developing a nuclear bomb.
Suddenly. It was then clear that something had to give and that the geopolitics of the regions have to shift, because the United It was no longer a reliable opponent of uranium aggression and ambition, which you have by definition, because we were at war with IRAN effectively in Iraq, said the president gets elected, who is opposed to the war in Iraq, and God only God. No, God only knew how deeply he was rig ends the war in Iraq, that he would as no said, seed a Iraq to IRAN as part of a deal in which we would send a hundred and fifty billion dollars to IRAN in exchange for IRAN, agreeing that it get a nuclear weapon we'll just to get out of a raft of fantastic deal for a firm for us? You know that we would make a huge internet,
deal that enshrined IRAN right to have nuclear weapons, which is central to stamp out of Iraq and the ten you our they. She had militias to bolster the iraqi security forces, which were enough incompetent as access review and twenty fourteen, and yet that I mean that's part of IRAN's nuclear mail, but it's it's sort of it was just next and expediency, and really right. So Christine went to the question of domestic politics. Someone wrote what part this. Of course, this is the most significant foreign policy accomplishment of the Trump administration. By far, nothing nothing remotely comes close. Not clear to me that anything in the except negatively
the Obama administration comes remotely close. We have a a now almost eighty year more than eighty year split between Israel and the arab states? That is starting to call. Split, I mean that that there has been a condition of cold war that is now going to be moved, we are now going to be almost officially. It appears enshrined as a new form of what they used to call an on Tom Courtyard, which is to say it's not an alliance. These of this is not caught emotional commonality or deep friendship. It is. It is, an alliance of interests in which people take each other seriously and do what is good for both of them an agreed, a table, their differences. That is a huge also,
nation in the geopolitical landscape and everyone who knows this nose at David Ignatius in the Washington Post knows it Tom Friedman knows it: it chokes all of them to have to say and here's the interesting here's the interesting bind there are not two not give crap trump credit for it. You have to give Netanyahu we have to say, will trumpeted do. Anything's is all Netanyahu? Do you know what that means? Hang out they visionary leader, the most important foreign policy leader of the twenty first century? Among among democratic figures? who deserves his position and get out Didn't we run out of town on a rail or now nothing trump? Did it trump and Jared have changed the world, so you could see the knot This thing in these pieces, by Tom Friedman and by and by I am Ignatius sort of say that the real person who deserves all credit
is the swamp from you. I e who get out. What's really that cause anyway, what a ladder say you better, not annex on the West Bank at that, did it all some letter, some outgoing ambassador, and he did it and that's why a foreign policy goal of the United States and Israel for seven hundred and sixty four you're, like since the creation of Israel just was realized with the richest and most advanced aside from saturated the richest and most advanced country in the in the in the region you ate, so you know, hunt like so. How is this all happen organically, like just rain down on them that there should be get out. There should be a normalization of relations. But there were plenty of thirteen. Forty four Obama foreign policy exiles doing their best to take credit for this yesterday,
the most shameless fashion it also exert with Arthur, including vibrating at its what's good about it is Arthur. Will Biden said in in in in accepting acknowledging how exciting the air, was and one advance it was that the IRAN deal and his trip when he met. In the view, I e that that played a real was the bubbles Billy Import Molina we went to the USA, he accused them basically of of contributing to the to the the genocide in Syria and then had to apologize, so that was bite in the foreign policy. Genius from twenty sixteen who actually had to issue a formal apology to the United Arab Emirates for his behaviour on the trip that he now celebrates as a landmark on the process of this incredible breakthrough at this is yet another great advance by the Trump Administration, because Joe Biden farm policies.
Are abhorrent. He used reliably gets every issue wrong and, to the extent you can box him in It's gonna be really valuable because, as I talk about ended in the peace that on the website, there's no going back is the really isn't any going back. Joe Biden has said: he's not gonna move the embassy there, TEL Aviv, the Randal J C p away is dead in so far as ran out of compliance with it, and they are not going back into compliance with it and now this is not something you can reverse. So all that as much as there were the squad types in the corn bushes, if we let your name rank, coregos, actually Probity S. Lawmaker says exactly Christine, says the videos, an extension fight for the rights of black Americans and in the United States and they're not gonna, be able to reverse engineer a status quo ante here. There's just it cannot be done so Joe Biden has to accept that the facts on the ground, because keys, eventually
have to govern, and american GEO Political and GEO strategic objectives in the region are advanced by this and to sacrifice that advance would be malpractice and negligence. So, at a certain point you just have to say: ok, I'm going to accept this good thing at face value in you know, look gift forcing them out, but in that an end, the desert of Videos Probity S. Squad types will continue to use the palestinian people's plight as a cultural and they d they liked his ship to pretended sums, have you no moral high ground there on you know using these these peoples, the cudgel in in a way that actually used to get some backing from some states in the region right. But now that that's off the table is John said earlier, the hollowness Potemkin quality their entire. You know, manufactured concern is gonna become more apparent than I do wonder. What this means for obedience has been making some significant gains on american college campuses over the past few years.
Listen and really the past decades of it'll. Be interesting to see if that domestic debate on college campuses sit all probably not to be honest, but it should. There is no way that it shifts and I have to say that to the two areas, Netanyahu's brilliance- and I use that word advisedly- his brilliance as an international power player has actually strengthen the hand of Jews in the United States, who have been fighting beady ass though they don't know it and the fight. If you told me in twenty ten, when the first real advances were made on college campuses against is that, by twenty twenty all
kind of universities would have beaten back the efforts to define or to have their endowments de fun it not by stock in this and then do follow. Bs principles All the I I would have thought you were could look to me like this was a victory. This was a foregone conclusion victory and that there was no point trying to win it because campuses were just irredeemably corrupt I have to say that Hillel and various other organizations have done stored Mary job of keeping the fight up at the administrative level. At not simply kowtowing to this pc thing, and one of the reasons is that as possible, is that Israel, It is a nimble, supple, complicated, interesting country that, where thing interesting things keep happening under
Netanyahu Stewardship, even though most liberals think that he is just an hour ago, tony so the settlers or right way or corrupt, or something like that. You know we have blossoming high tech sector, there there's a blossoming high tech sector. There is a there is deserve is moving on the path of energy independence. There is Israel making all these moves and deals. God- and there is the simple fact of the matter that until now ones traveling anywhere from Israel had become one of the most surely pleasurable, places on earth to visit as the intifada was destroyed and as the wars against Hamas in Gaza were effectively one though. Life can still be very difficult for Israelis themselves where there is not a lot of social mobility in a lot of, and and there's deep
become inequality and housing prices are too high and it's very hard to serve, get started them. Make a living in that way. Not the fact that it has now become a largely normal country means that this portrait that is painted by the by be the aspects of this sort of fascistic regime that is holding these people down. You know like, like Derek Shovin to George Floyd does not conform with any image of the real. Quality of life in Israel, as you go and go there and see it or as its portrayed anyway including on these tv, shows that people seem really to enjoy, watching I'm Netflix and and other places, and to the extent that politics plays a role in this baby, deserves an enormous amount of
Credit in this realm and as we have a real piece by Vivian Burgage, who was the canadian ambassador to Israel, that's gonna, go off on the website is either opera is about to go up on the website. She isn't it she's a critic of of babies. She she is very suspicious of him and She says, you know you just he it looked like he was on the ropes again there, large scale demonstrations against him in the streets. There is this corruption, trial let's go start in January, he's alive a trouble. He needs to sharp his right right wing in case there's a there's, a no confidence vote against them, but what it? What did he do here? He swung for the fences
he said. Having said that, they would it next the West Bank, in an effort to get the Sattler vote into the record, to vote for him so that he could get a majority that he needed and bring. Coalition together that he needed. She has now said we're not going to the next right now. That is a betrayal of a campaign promise. He is betting, that he is betraying the campaign promise to fulfill a desire and hunger and a wish that Israelis have. That is very deep which is to stop being a country isolated and alone in the world, and that this to be more and more recognised its having
credibly, brave whiskey and am bravura play, and it up ends is rarely politics yet again, which is one of his great strength. So we don't know how it's gonna play out, but I do think it's important to note this now. We should also talk about this question of what what Trump gets out of this aim. I mean nobody cares about foreign policy in the United States right now at all ever so, except for these, you know psychotic monsters who love them. Squad, you know when the Democratic Party and love their loved, their horrible evil ideas and by the way not, but there are still very small number right there, their fear of their seven or eight of them, and then they get a hundred thousand votes, and so it's out they can't describe that is a mass movement get but an and no one.
And among trumps base cares either right. I mean that if Europe, a populous nationalist, you know your your attitude is, Why are we even bothering with with the things you know her? events going on. On the other side of the world, but nonetheless, what he gets out of it is this undeniable sense of accomplishment and leadership he? He actually looks a word, not only a real president in this instance, but an extraordinarily capable one right well enough, and if you can, if he can defend himself, communicate that debate format again spiten that could be fairly effective. If you can kind of extrapolate from this particular historic deal to his foreign policy goals. You know writ large in it does one of the things. I think this
it also does is kind of undermine this. This portrait we ve had frightfully. So in some cases, when he's been a little too flattering of of foreign dictators, the idea that the Trumps administration is entirely bungling on all foreign policy issues that he likes the authoritarian, strong man. You know that that the values focused the sort of a pro pro open markets- taped diplomacy. They focused policy which, which a bomb I embrace with regard to IRAN is now actually been proven more effective with this deal, but I do think if, if he's disciplined enough and can communicate, it wisely would be useful in the context of this election during debates, because as nor mentioned earlier, said many times, Biden and foreign policy have plenty of areas to criticise. What is Joe Biden big idea when it comes to foreign policy, every major risks, countries he once ringing recoveries up and three at his thing, in writing. Among many books rings. We got a split this thing off
They pursued that in Sudan to add to what a pretty poor outcome, but the palestinian territories demonstrate pretty effectively. Why is not a great idea to break up states, particularly multi ethnic multi, religious? states that are bound up in his coalitions. Only doesnt work out well ever get yields to internet in violence. We should explain what that means. Is that binding twice a year? Your motion, Sudan, which were San Swimming, Iraq and Afghanistan, Big thing is really understand: it's like you know what you make nice that there should be. There should be so. A sheer incurred Iraq and then Ghana stand, I do remember. I think there were four. I think the binding proposal was for protect four areas and Syria should be divided between you know. I don't know who the warehouse,
is in the normal Hobbes or whatever, and not we're happy, I'm sorry alights yet so that is his. His genius is. What we really need to do is go back to the time afterward but war, one way the West simply decreed, that places were country, then divided them as at will, and that really worked out just and learning a friend. It's not very well, it's very how's, your right to say who complains most about that. It is the woke left about how we have had the West drool arbiter hurry and artificial lines in and you know, destroyed the region doing so, and their rights, They were right. The one criticism of enough the one criticism of impurities there's, an that that actually is in arguable, was that the high handed way
the world debt dealt with the empire after World war. One was a key factor in creating all of the conditions that not only helps to bring us into world WAR two but continued to divide the world in when did through through the beginning of the new millennium, so yeah I think that that is with us by his great I get. This also helps trumpet another way, which is that it it at a time when you know where he suffering from the correct perception that he doesn't do things normally he doesn't pretty doesn't pursued with the job of the presidency, based on previous norms, and what this this makes the case to some degree, the oh, so what if he has entirely different
ideas and approaches to think so you know so so what? If he's not bound by certain as school, erotic, actually frameworks in mid? May, maybe oh yeah, that's right. People dues to have been saying that there is some advantage to his his service cider approach would ever have progressive. I think progressive would say that site Peak Sykes Pico, which was the agreement they broke up. The Ottoman empire failed because we didn't, we don't have the enlightened idea of tribal and ethnic attachments than we do now that they apply to us that this were broken up along GEO political lines that had no bearing and didn't and create included all these multiethnic states that were unstable just by virtue of a multi ethnic state. There should be ethnic, religious and racial
Jonas States, while those are the interesting thing, of course, is that that's? What does that's where we're headed in the United States as it is able to details effectively, you know, if everything is was to be counted according to your membership in a dead different tribes. Then, were United States stops being a majority, a country in which you know the tribes all of all blend and become simply another kind of multi ethnic multi whenever you want to call it state like others them do. You know him well and will suffer the consequences. I think aim meant, something very interesting that is offers an inch. Same way, to look at the top administration, which is he came in as an entirely unconventional politician who was willing to break the China and was not required, did not did not believe in any of the former consensus ideas and, to the extent
that those former consensus ideas were good? In my view, he has been a destructive force like you know that free trade is a good thing. But when you are dealing with certain types of phenomena like a entirely failed middle eastern policy, that has been failed. Our least policy towards this. Harry the Middle EAST that has been a failure for decades and it archer because nobody could accept force at certain moments could break out of that consensus. Then the ability to say why I don't just mean we're not just gonna, do things the old way and I look at this and I see we have one friend there and we're trying to screw our friends. So what are we like side with our friend against these bombs answer when nine eleven happened and why
We. Why are we even being nice to them, screw that? Why do we give the money they pay off? They they they give us inventions. To the families of terrorists to murder, children screw them, where siding with our friend, that's actually a creative freedom pulse that had he followed it in some other ways and there there was some sense among people that he was sort of doing this with China too, that there had been this This notion that China would be better for the world and better for itself. If it liberalized and if therefore were brought into the community of nations and trading and all this and all that, and then that became an end in itself? China was a country that we treated like it was a normal country because we were treating it like was a normal country and it was stealing our intellectual property and- and you know, misusing trade,
some all that, but he never. But he and so people that I knew who work in China and Worker China would price. Let me say in twenty seventeen: twenty eighteen, you know somebody had to do something like something had to change. The way that this was all going where TAT China to serve got whatever wanted, because it lobby that paid people, and then it was all part of this sort. Be it understanding of free trade that free trade was just about you now making sure that big corporations could get supply lines, supply chains that would be cheaper for them and not about what free trade is really about that you know somebody had to do something, but Trump could not focus. He could figure out what it was he wanted from China, and then he wanted. You know to paper things were in get band aids and get cutesy little things to happen. And all that in an end, and that, I think, is all come a cropper as as a result, but had he been as
Had he systematically gone through the american political system to say what are all the conventions and we're not going to follow them? Let's, let's look at it. One by one by one, which is what I think people fought might happen. We ve said this many times podcast cast in November of twenty sixteen if he had thrown up all the cards like fifty to pick up in domestic politics and said in exchange for acts. I'm going to do why I'm going to I'm going to go for a giant infrastructure bill that all Democrats want, in exchange for the wall or in exchange for this or exchange for that and actually sat down with the Democrats and looked at them and said the old way of doing things is over we're gonna, do something new together. Who knows what could have happened? Who knows well not that goods that not than it might have been not to have been a disaster, but it wouldn't have been the
he's a revolutionary figure whose destroying everything and then in fact he doesn't change that much and just gets credit for being destroyed in our being somebody who destroys lives, right wealth and tell me that, always the that the true visionary outsider comes in with, with the with a combative approach to the existing institutions like Congress. But not content and I think you know even given how in saying that the Democrats were out for the twenty sixteen election if Trump had not come in with such contempt for the institution itself, They might have been able to do more of that, and I mean the China policy, for him is part of the blame to them, but it also lies with conservatives in this country who are still trying to formulate a policy with regard to China now given given how our relationships with China have changed. Given with in Hong Kong, and so I think I meet part. The travellers is almost in some ways and an example of a deeper confusion that the conservatives and in the United States have with regard to what
Our policy should be going for which know, and other countries are going to the to the UK has a China research group is formed among conservative lawmakers me ever. Bodies rethinking got relief. Ship now, and we should be doing, I think, a little more aggressively that we happen. We are, I mean, there's a week we might be giving the president a little too much credit, because there has been an aviation all shift among particularly conservative republican foreign policy hands with regard to the Middle EAST for some time and to the extent that he was able to execute this policy and abandon the state concerned. That's around what the foreign policy consensus was with red the palestinian question. There was an intellectual infrastructure around that policy that was able to support it and implement That's absolutely through time at where he failed and where who deservedly failed, was an effort to, for example, abandon America's commitment to containing and restricting a resurgence, Russia. He did his best
It couldn't get around the foreign policy consensus there, and in that sense we should be thankful for the foreign Alice incentives. Now that's right, but in an end that infrastructure talking about a lot of its centres on I've. I have to say this commentary magazine, which spent twenty years talking about the nature of the problems with the Oslo Peace Accords and the notion of supporting Israel, because it was a democratic state in the region, the only democratic state in the region, a lot of them They have an impact on George W Bush and how he dealt with these matters after nine eleven, and he was heading in that direction. Then copy rice became secretary of state in kind of put the Thai Bush on, out of it because she really is a conventional foreign policy person, and
rush as well. But you know what does the IRAN deal that the notion that Tehran has to be confronted, that IRAN could not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, was an obsession of this magazines and we were deeply depressed and terrified. By what happened. When Obama made made the IRAN deal and here we are today and then Trump came in the other infrastructure was there because the arguments had been made about how bad it was a member of the way the american people didn't like the IRAN deal guarantee over. Sixty percent of Americans oppose the IRAN deal that's what I'm going to keep the launch of a secret. Well, they ve done wisely America around sixty percent of american support, Israel and fifteen percent support the Palestinians. So it's
it is, though, even in reaching this, he isn't being a good representative politician. In fact, his views of these matters more closely resembled the views of the American, people, then the views of Obama, which come out of the fancy lounge or the views abiden which come out of God, only knows what I have no idea where they come out of date. They they they come out of that come out if not actually come out of his is its catholic training in a believer Jesus trinitarian. So once the split everything up into threes, that's what Michael Noble the late Michael Novak used to say, as he would always begin a speech by saying as a trinitarian. I want to make three points so Biden. There's a trinity: Everyone wants to split countries into three. That's my That's my the only way I, where I can go back and go with US but he is a remarkable day its historic day. It's a historic moment. Trump deserves all credit for being participated.
For a moment, and it also shows you what three months out from an election presidential powers exercised properly and with the seriousness of purpose, how they can possibly, we direct the focus of the national conversation in a way that would be helpful to that. Men trump, of course, has been, as has been entirely a captive have a conversation. He cannot control about the virus that the economy, people now say the problem with him. Is it even control the virus more? But the simple fact of the matter is that he didn't know how to control the virus, and he didn't know he doesn't know how to talk about it, and so he is basically whipsawed by it. Every day, and here we have out of left field a moment, world changing Moma. Executed by the executive branch and if he has two or three more them, not that I think he does, but if he had,
three more of them. God only knows what you know. What November would look like an and to speak to the virus and what to do about it and Americans? so short, but what we are seeing right now in the binding and Harris campaign is very distinctive effort to portray Biden and Harris as people who would have done the right thing, and we knew exactly how to handle this, despite the fact that at no point out yesterday, there their closest, ample was dealing with a rare and hemorrhagic figure of which it delete, your Americans have or human at risk about it, but they just released and add that's going all over the place near my not about
demanding a mask requirement of everyone. There should always do this sort of universal masking requirement, which, of course, is, is and blaming Trump and saying you know we would do this if we were in office bringing up a huge number of issues about whether or not that something you want. A president to have the power to do, does does your sheep and have that power Probably not but the idea. But that is not so much about the details of constitutional powers as it is an effort to to rewrite the history of how covert should have been handled. We're Trump is boys front in centre as a bumbling idiot, who should have known better, even we all know is we ve been following MRS granular detail for months, noble, It really knew how to deal with it and everybody was kind of doing the best. They can in setting partisan? beside plenty of democratic leaders may terrible decisions, plenty Republicans
the two and and vice versa. They made some made good one so, but I'll be really curious to see it. That narrative sticks for those swing. Voters that their actively court I have to say no, eight extremely of me. I think. Ok, so almost mathematically, the mask mandate would have to be bad politics because it there's a perceived the need for a mass mandate. That would mean that most Americans aren't we don't don't want to wear the masks right right. So who is who is responding positively to this well, that's why I think it's just a symbolic sort of look at us doing something important that will protect you the man that everybody wearing mask. How would how would they even enforce that, and, as you say, most people, even though they don't always wear their mask report, that they do there's an already they've internalized, the understanding that they,
Ok, so I think that's where you may be missing a beaten. Cassim may be missing a beat here too about. Looking at this is a serious and I would like taking it literally rather than taking it seriously, that it is intended to be taken seriously rather than literally first, There's the nonsensical aspect to it, which is that mask wearing, as a simple matter of fact, is important to prevent the transmission. The disease primarily indoors, not outdoor? So basically, if you live in New York City, for example, most people are wearing masks most of the time, meaning you wear it and then there's some point of which you suddenly find hard to breathe. You take it off for a couple minutes. He put it back on but you were never going inside a business of any way, shape or form or building rising I without without the mask on. So you would mandate mass wearing, but I didn't said, weirdly and again, this is where you start wondering about his cognitive abilities are more faculty,
What he wants is a mask mandate for people to where mass outside at all times, but that is actually not what the mask is on, so that, if you go inside, it's not the idea, You're gonna air supplies your spit as you're walking in a sub. Where no one's walking or something like that. You know. Maybe I mean there's something off about that, but the very fact that people think that they should wear masks and certainly the very fact that my guess is that voting population I believe that they should, where mass, unless they are ideologically appall, opposed to masks, because they are part of this libertarian. It's all a hoax, how we want to look at it. Means that it's a gimme to say I want to mask man. They like and then they even said data there. I can do it from the White House there, her ass, they are directing or asking governors to impose. The mass
we want the distressed, nerdy dont like this. This is actually bending over the policy for months right, but the central, so the central can see here is that people need to wear masks. Bindings gonna. Tell you need to wear mask trump, doesn't want to tell you where a mask So he's gonna say where mass he's more serious trump is less serious again. I think, for the nervous for them. If this fight is now being waged in early over suburban women in ringing supper doubts, the Birmingham Michigan- and you know more Pennsylvania and I don't know I mean wherever else Ohio, Albany Allah, New Albany, Ohio, where everyone is slice it that's, who this is talking to, and probably I mean, but it is really brazen to hold up the Obama administration, public health record as some sort of a model here.
Unfortunately, you just never gonna be able to out brazen trump, so they have a free, they have a. They have a total. We who is going to stand around saying I mean really, you can't that's not a that's. That's not cricket sale, bad amid recycling, now wasn't right. Recycling man, twenty abundant, I should be about illustration went to war with Chris Christie over ocean that we should be quarantining health workers who went to Africa to help with the bull evident. Saying it wasn't necessary and holding him up as some german paranoiac swine flu wreck funding of primary law establishing the ocean s apparent whack, you the point here again only built that stupid tent in the North airport, because he was gonna run for president. He was a jerk and he was about to say who is? That was a preposterous game and he does
To get smack down some take the bird flu then into awry. Swine flu in two thousand and twelve thousand Americans died as a result of it. Most of them were under the age of sixty five children and young adults were most affected and the administration to third, a public health service, and what are the Obama would it? Obama do directly afterwards to send a signal. Go golfing, because it wasn't a big deal, the CDC recommended. We should shut down schools, and then it said no, we shouldn't shut down schools actually because it's just a flu just like every other flew with anybody, took it up open microscope to their reaction and said you know. Maybe the Obama administration record is just as confused and halting and kind mercury, is every other countries record on this pandemic. We haven't honest conversation about it,
Well, look: we should have an honest conversation about it, but again, I have to say, as somebody who you know is feeling very positively about Trump right now he doesn't, he doesn't get. He can't do all this stuff for three and a half years and then expect people to hold his rivals, two up more austere standard than the one he demands to be held to which has no standard whatsoever. Just you just can't that's just not the way the world works and may in Ireland and and the fact that the fact that It is defaulting now to this blue, Chris idea that you now he wants people to start thinking about whether or not calmly Harris has the You constitutional right to be president when she was born. Opel in California.
Again suggests. I don't know whether to go suggest a level of desperation that vision that that that speaks against the possibility that he can use. Thing like a bit of a fantastic diplomatic breakthrough that under other circumstances, let me commend by the way a really delightful piece of our friends or of them already has of the New York Post, which is the odd which is the fantasy story after after November of Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize for the? U a deal and what that article would look like if it were written is something that should happen of course, of course, won't happen, but part of the reason that it won't happen. Aside from the fact that the can ever happen is that it out he can't not go. But common Harris being somebody who was not allowed to be. President in answer created new birth or narrative.
He just ass? You do that too, and so walking around like trying to look serious about having changed the world with a you know, without amazing diplomatic breakthrough, just Yeah, he also makes it impossible to remember like six hours later. I don't remember what this is because Trump is blowing dead is, you is, is stirring up the dust cloud about something that is going to convince anybody that he needs to convinced about form in November the suburban moms and are going to vote for him because they they think of Kamel Harris isn't doesn't deserve to be president, and are you not because her because he was born in Oakland of people who are not american citizens at the time. But I want to end on a beggar. If now I really dont is this is it? This is a great data great day for the world immigration,
Supporters of Israel in a great day for rational people everywhere, and we need to keep that in mind. So let's keep that I've had a great weekend and please be back here with us on Monday for April eighteen, oh, no, I'm John upwards. Keep the cavalry.
Transcript generated on 2020-08-14.