« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Message: I Care

2020-08-21 | 🔗
Joe Biden closed the final night of the Democratic National Convention with his pitch to voters, which is, essentially, that he’s a nice guy and Donald Trump is not. But will that be enough?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily. Podcast were Friday August, twenty first, twenty twenty of John Paul towards the editor of Commentary magazine with me, as always: Senorita Christine Razumihin, Christine Exec, of editor, a green all high Abe Hygiene and associate ETA Rossman high. Now I job. Ok, Joe Biden spoke last night and no I had the most negative takes. Oh no, you start, and then we had a more negative take than I did.
Well, I guess I'm a month on the critical person, but I thought it was the best speeches of the convention, absent Michelle Obama, okay, so that that's that's not as negative You were gonna aggressive use, two things: enjoy me that will haunt Joe Biden in the event that ends up in the White House. Two comments that he made that I thought were really annoying one as president and his quote as president. I will make you a promise. I will defend us from Ray attack scene and unseen, always without exception every time. Well, God bless you very nice, but done that's. That's a rough and live up to two and I actually want to find me the exact language areas as important as president. A first step I will take will be to get control, all of the virus, that's ruins, so many lives. We will- never get our economy back on track. We will never get our kids safely back in school. We will never.
Have our lives back until we deal with this virus So that is both observation and threat in part, because its partly true, but also because the reason we won't have our life- back is because the people who have control over our lives are beholden to the eye but we can't have our lives back in the absence. Medical miracle right we were just talking about. We were just talking about the fact that if you look at the at the chart of New York City and New York state by the way over the course of the corona virus, every metric has been met for a total reopening nobody's, getting it now and nobody's dying from it. Now the numbers of deaths and new cases are in DES are under ten day or something like that, and a new cases are, you know, infinitesimal everything that we would have thought
in March would have indicated that it was time to reopen is what is going on right now and we are nowhere near reopening. No, I look up briefly into my circumstances without going too deeply into it. So bottom line as yesterday, after after a lot of back and forth with our school district by two weeks it out last week and a half ago, we got eyes. In its place, men in school and we ve been preparing him to go back to school, has been very excited and it's been trying and emotionally taxing and yesterday in the afternoon, without explanation, we got a note that said now: we're just not gonna. Do this. Actually, it's remote learning entirely until November did never did think that this is needed. Mercy. The absence of an explanation there's an explanation known in and of itself, because they ve been very forthcoming with the internal deliberations over this stuff. To the point, an information overload and if there was any at an agency recommendation
new guidelines or even a cold in case they would have told us that the absence of any explanation is an explanation in and of itself the institutional lovers that have put a gun to this case. Does school systems had, however, have managed convince them not to go forward with reopening, and so everybody scrambling here, but my county of three hundred and thirty thousand people. The amount of new cases that we experienced yesterday area S right last week was ten, the entire state of New Jersey, a state of almost nine million people. Now we have had fewer than fifteen daily debts for seventeen bright day, Noah? How many Americans, in the United States, under the age of eighteen, do you think of that I'd have covered. I'm really anything on. Did you see this point we don't know, ok elsewhere. It is fascinating how many under the age of eighteen to hunting
hundred two hundred okay. So no matter how many Americans are there under the age of eighteen in the United States, seventy five million. So there was, when they came out from gallop department with the university. I saw these yesterday that down the Americans were I only under estimate how deadly this viruses over over the age of eating, they had already made under read over the age of eighty, that's right and they and dramatically overestimate hunting This is for everyone under so the amount of people under forty who constant amount of deaths under the age of forty from cove. It is roughly two point: seven percent of the total population of debt and Americans believe it's around thirty percent. Similarly, they think that people over the age of eighteen, like fifty percent chance, you'll die no more like eighty, eighty, five, it's very badly if you're over the edge vary. So people just don't have a clear picture of what this virus
Does to you and there's a concerted effort on the part of the press to confuse and conflate the issue, because it's not just ass. You have to worry about its long term, complications from contract. You have you don't want to get. It causes gonna hurt is now it'll do or about nobody wants anybody together, disease, that's the important thing, but let's talk about how effective the Biden message was on the virus and I think for the overall. You said it was the best way to the convention's. Clearly, the best speech abiding Zion second Michel is the Ok, well, I think up, I think Barrack was the best speech of the convention. I think this was probably the second best and probably the best in political terms, because the stakes were so high and I he outperformed, even I would say the lower expectations a moment have of him that you know look as long as he
didn't. You know, start drooling and an end, and you know well crawling around the stage that that was gonna be a good thing for him sort of like in the in the debates where, where he simply, by dint of the fact that he was full term sustain an argument or or or appoint as in tab in our coasts through, but it was. It was better than that. I thought it was also striking in that it was the I think, the first time in this era- of a virtual everything and zoom everything that You really saw, and I'm sure, by the way that he has been working on this delivery and the speech for weeks that you saw an understanding of how to use the camera as your friend and to be intimate with the camera sort of like this famously it was Saturday not that famous, which should be famous about how been Crosbie was the most important entertainer of the twentyth century,
he's the one who figured out how to use the microphone how'd it how not to simply you know a mode and pitch and do but to be intimate with the microphone as long as as though you were having an intimate conversation with a close friend and Biden pulled off last night that very difficult, and I, as I say, I think it probably took a lot of work to get him into that's place and it will it's it's like a lesson. I like it and struck a piece of instruction on how you might be able to be a in. Somebody who can convey what you want to convey over zoom orb. You know in one of these meetings where the law, a cow to look where to put the camera. How intends to be and how quiet to be an arm- and I thought at it in performance terms the
because, on the one hand and the expectations were low and on the other hand the performance needs were very, very high and he really out at did them. I know this is like a meadow thing to talk about it as though he's an actor been crosbie at the microphone, but so much of this is just presentation, so much of it is, can you imagine him being the person was gonna talk to you for four years? Can you imagine him the person who is gonna? U know give speeches, can does he look like he has risen to the moment. Did he look presidential? Did he say like a leader, all of that, and I think he pulled that off perfectly- I mean it certainly is perfectly as he could a butcher I mean you listening to. You know that I think maybe I had the most negative take on it. Ok wasn't which that negative either by the way, I think you did fine. I think the point about his being able to
she's a level of intimacy in setting is is true. I also think, though, that that's especially perhaps easier for him because binds manner generally is personal, intimate he doesn't. He's got Andrey serve, you know, issues so to speak and he's always serve in everyone's face up close on top your business? So in some sense it makes sense that he could that he could be intimate in that setting up. I agree that he did absolutely as best as he could clear that bar at the same time. There is, I think, it's it's just unavoidable and I don't there's. No. I don't take any delight. In saying this I am not trying to be mean, I think, there's still a sense, even when he performs at his best there's a there's, a kind of vacancy there at this point is this a sort of a dullness, no matter what
even when the lines come out as clearly as they can that you you, you wonder about his his energy and just the just the sort of the state of his but the speed of his of his thinking and functioning Christine? But where did you where'd? You go come on, I'm I think I'd, probably moron unable cited this I went back and re read this morning. His actual the text of the speech which I like to do for things like state of the union addresses in such costs. You get something different reading the text and did exactly what he was supposed to do. Expectations were extremely low, so him he met or exceeded them. What struck me with oh again how vague and general his remarks are an end to speak to what no up it was talking about in specific terms with with cohesion policy going forward kickin. This is
last moment where he can speak in those generalities, because the only specific policy recommendation we ve heard from binding is actual mask mandate, but now from going forward now, I think the american public wants to know specifics about how he's gonna handle this crisis. Cities promised us he will and that's where I think, he's gonna run into trouble, because cheese and he's gonna run into trouble if he wins in November to with policies Pacific's, he had another that I'm gonna going to protect you from every At all times, the entire convention was about making Oh Biden look like you're extremely affectionate grandpa, whose very protective he's of regeneration? He has good values, he's not gonna go fly off, they handle like Trump, that's great, but now people are gonna, one specific, and if you look at some of the people that are coming out recently. They want to know specifics about the economy, about the covert responds. All of these things. The other thing is like he didn't mention China. He didn't mention and here the rioting there there's a lot of concerns that Americans have right now that word
ignored throughout the whole convention, and that was a deliberate choice, just as I think no points out the fact that his school district didn't give them a reason why there cancelling. They just cancel, there's always a reasons. There's a reason we didn't hear about civil unrest and we didn't know about China and some of the other issues right now so uncle Nobody knows this released and no to you and to Johns where you were headed with it with at the top of this discussion about how New York members are, are so low. Now I think I've heard of you ever actually got around to where I think you were heading which is Why on earth? Are we not fully open again right- and this relates to Christine's point about bad? Why they're, not getting it specifics. Here's the racket of of the Democrats approach to saddling Trump with with the cap the bad covered response, all they say is we're going to be
we're going to follow the science. Our policies are going to be data driven, unlike what's happening now, and the truth is that they, the Democrats, have given up on democratic governors have given up on driven policies because with our numbers, as in New York, for example, as low as they are, the benchmarks have disappeared right. Forget that we're not open, we don't. Even we don't even know what numbers would constitute would constitute the policy of reopening I mean so so there are. They already have an opportunity to be data driven they're, not doing it. It's the policies have fallen part completely. There's no, communication about them Anders there's no game plan regarding the data right? Ok, so let's talk about why it means when Biden says we're gonna, we have to deal with the virus.
That is that is of course only saying is that we are not dealing with a virus now trumps, not dealing with the virus now and the question is, is trump capable of coming back by saying out didn't do not deal with the virus. Are we build? Forty thousand ventilate? You said everybody, Said we needed forty thousand ventilators we arranged yet forty thousand ventilators. But he says we need to rush of vaccine weave, put in billions of dollars into fast tracking vaccines. We got three major vaccine. On the way we ve already agreed to pay x amount of money to whoever gets the vaccine first were investing in ass. They were doing this like. That is what an ordinary politician would do and he's got a story to tell his public relations approach. Here has been disastrous for him because he doesn't want
Who, for whatever reason he doesn't want to acknowledge. The world is Burchell seriousness of this moment in favour of whatever mystical notion. He has that it better to say the virus is gonna, go away and that and that you know, maybe he should offer more support to people who do want to wear masks or you know, did think that the liberals are being unfair. So he's got this story to tell and to say you know, I call bs on you What have you done? What is Andrew Cuomo done? Except kill, eleven thousand people and all of that right, but he doesn't do it because he doesn't have a clear understanding of a clear sense of his head of where to go with this line of argument. So Christine you're saying Biden can't get away with it, and I think he can. I think he can.
Because he can only not get away with it if the conversation turns to trumps done X, Y and Z, that has been bad. What are you gonna do? That is then we'll see. They're gonna, be all these interviews this weekend with him and Harris we'll see whether they ask him these questions and whether whether he gets specific remarks. We know that the mainstream media is not going to bar going to press him to provide specific. That is actually not gonna happen, and so I dont know that he can't get away with it. All he's promising is to deal with the virus. That's all these, but, like tell me, tell me what is promising that he's over promising know you're serving ear indicating that by saying that he would fight.
All dangers and stop them seen an unseen that he is over promising. Let's say, but I would say in this case he wildly under promising you say: look: we can never get back our life back to normal until we deal with the virus so I guess I'll figure out what it means there. With a virus- and I declare that we're getting back to normal when I get to be president- are not right- I don't know, I mean I've just serve strength, so he doesn't matter what he says in so far as his strategy here is just to project this kind of maternal protective instinct, Just what their strategy as the strategy is. The convention was very illuminating in so far as it demonstrated that the key strategy is to show the Joe buying the good guy he's just
this guy is a human being, unlike the president, presidents, a bad guy turbines and a guy, so in so far as our policies involved there. The kind of peripheral lesson is a vote on character and there's a lot of people in the commentary class. Who believe that this is a terrible strategy, because, with Democrat should be doing, is talking about working class, policies and protectionist policies and as shoring up the social safety nets and doing the kind of reform conserved isn't that reaches out to the upper midwestern. That's how down from one and that's take those voters back and get really neat agree with the details. That's not how they one in twenty eighteen Democrats will tell you all we won, because we talk about healthcare, nonsense that ran because they ran against Donald Trump. They targeted women in the suburbs and then telling one when that's what you do it again
no really no indication that it's not working few indications that does not work well, ok, so that this is where we get into the the interesting by four kidded optics of last night's convention. So we we being completest watched from nine pm toll eleven thirty when buying was done and, of course, the network's only really go open up at ten, and they don't even show the entire. Our from ten to eleven of all the knights of the four nights, the convention last night was it was easily the most disastrous from a presentation perspective and that the it seemed to be a diamond
duration of liberal clueless nests of a sort that had this been a conventional convention and there had been kind of gavel to gavel coverage Republicans could have been doing happy dances all night over the material that they were being handed. And the idea that what is really funny it's time said: Andrea, Yang, Angelou, Dreyfus, making fun of my pencil name and
I'm calling him a which of course, is a british british slang for gay, which I thought was a striking, where they would make a pond joke about my pants. I didn't know that you are allowed to make gay jokes. I even about I guess you are allowed to make gay jobs of the target. Is it is? It is a conservative republican, but, aside from being unfunded me, the idea that you have you know the woman whose one eleven Emily's you know going o MIKE Mike pensive name, is funny and stupid and he's stupid. That's like great gimme, more just get gimme more this giving more of of John Legend and common, seeing a pathetic twenty five minute long, sir
on from the enough from the M credits of Selma. That that's that's great, you know Gimme, give me as much as you can of Julie Le We Dreyfus insulting Trump, because how does that help? Anybody, particularly if what you're trying to do is present an argument for the gravity of the present moment, which isn't to say you Cappy witty, and you can't be light and provide light moments. But the gravity of the present Ahmed isn't like trumps in eighty, it says Julia Lorry drivers who, by the way, is not only you know, one of the most decorate actresses in Hollywood business herself worth A billion dollars, as you may or may not know she is the grand
daughter of Dreyfus. The the Euro were whatever Dreyfus, was able to remedy now and aunt em and is one of the richest people, not only in Hollywood but am in in the United States. So I'm really glad that she's, a liberal and that's great everything, but am this really is like having some rich limousine liberal, attacking trump? Who is more appealing to you know conservative metal white men than than them there is his rival is. There was one joke that she made that I literally had trouble getting and took me about two seconds to get, and I wouldn't have gotten it. If I wasn't on twitter all the time like to ever wrote this lever wrote these transition spends an inordinate amount of time on Twitter was that it was the Trump line. Like man, woman phone tv somethin like that, like ours, like a new cycle about twenty new cycles ago. Added
The only register is, if you like, a big fan of comedians, who lip Sink Donald Trump on online over there were five thrilling actually refer her so the lower the of entertainment, literally I'd buy that for a dollar right. So let's talk about that. So Sarah Cooper disk comedian, who is like at nowhere made a huge last just by lip sinking, Donald Trump words and making funny faces. So she pops up without any explanation of what the hell she's doing. She does some Trump lip think about voting and things that he said about voting, and then she drops the lip sink and stairs into the camera, says. Now. Let me talk as myself and a hundred billion people are like who the hell are you if I told you
know who you are what you get is Jim to Camelot Donald Trump. There are literally fifty seven people in this country who know who Sarah Cooper is and think that her routine is the funniest goddamn thing they ve ever seen, and that's what I mean by the closeness. So I thought- oh, my god like this- is the liberal version of Stewart Stevens turning over the twenty twelve convention to Clint Eastwood, because Clint Eastwood is all big famous and Clint Eastwood spend ten minutes at the Brook before Mitt Romney speech, doing that Tsar thing with the chair and nobody ever said. You know what Clint Eastwood I we need to see or steer speech before your delivering at her. We're gonna write it for you, because this is our, common aiding convention. It doesn't matter who the hell you are given, at least those of us who watched in slightly baffled horror at Clint, Eastwood performance there. One.
An obvious take away there and there was an obvious audience he was playing to like it. I'm Sarah Cooper thing. I mean I've, a lot like as I've, lovely, liberal friends who send me every single one of those is L, L, so hilarious. I mean I just don't get it like. I it's funny for about thirty seconds and then you I could have seen this done. This move on, but there's I was struck again to go back to the point about the abstractions. They actually still do need to reach out to wipe working class met in certain swing states right. It's not ass, the suburban women I dont know what's that, take away for those guys from this convention. Besides the emphasis on gun control, which we saw nothing to counterbalance- and I mean an egg the kind of kinder gentler, maternal you know type by opera is very appealing to some demographics, but not
the thoroughly to those guys in those guys didn't did help trunk get elected to reside there. There were just some certain constituencies that you thought they could. It least pander to right. That's what the convention does answer to his constituencies. So, although those average there was pandering book last night was the religious pander. Oh yes, that's true and I was the Biden, rosary, beads and he's a man of great faith and this the dead, none who sent a car for health care and the
rob. I know who he talk too, and there was there. Was this kind of like oh yeah? We have religious people in our in our party to and fro you know, that's what they think. I veer between wondering whether they have deliberately decided that they can't reach those trump voters that people are talking about, and so there is no point in wasting time on it or thinking that the democratic parties, own set of ideas or the liberal set of ideas in America make it almost ling wistfully possible for them to to imagine that there is anything they can say to reach these monstrous Yahoo, racist Hunter Q and non pigs, and
so they're, just not even get a bother, because those people are the irredeemably deplorable and so implicitly they are revealing that they still support the deplorable theme, even when they don't say their deplorable. Well, they in all their cause of repentant Republicans who are explaining why they don't you have that that there that they can vote for down trump, but there are those, I think, were literally Hundred percent met right, but I want the morn Tv Republicans like one guy, was turned out to vote a democratic in the last like five elections. I could but get that zero point. They weren't those were guys then last night they had what they were like ninety five year old there were three Edward were to veteran yeah. Well so, but of course none of that goes to the issue sat there would be some. They could, if you're, if you're the kind of white working class voter who says you know what tromp was full of it? You didn't help
They didn't do anything good country, socks. I'm gonna, look somewhere else but I don't want. I don't want to vote for somebody who, like things, I'm an idiot or a jerk or bitter, doesn't like people like me, that was by the way one of the reasons that Biden, one as far as I can tell- was the idea that certainly it's what I thought that that he was the only one of those twenty people who could talk to the upper middle. You know who who would even be able to talk to the upper Midwest that wasn't some new class hyper new democratic, you know the all the other older people were both. You know like commies right my worn and worn and sanders And then everybody else with some identity, Terry Latte, liberal, except maybe suffer club- are in our and so Sir,
he was the only one who had any illogical scope. But this goes to eight point. I think that's right about the binding we all used to know, but that by has not been on display even the primary he got really pissed off when challenged by some white Working class guy in a kind of open forum- and I do think again to go to the basement strategy working for him. It did from now on, there's a couple of months where he could really alienate that group. I think all Biden, the image of binding, which was very carefully burnished throughout this convention. That's true oh Biden, but I did not see that Biden as much on the on the during the primary campaign, and I wonder the concern among his advisers, is that you know he really isn't that avuncular guy as much as he used to be? For whatever reason I don't know, I just I I will be curious to see if he can bring that guy back on that over the next few months. Okay, so here's my question familiar,
Remember the guy cameras name whose Mitt Romney's Spress Secretary, and he said Oh, don't worry. Once we win the once we the primary it's like an actress sketch. I think, those Eric friends from right. That's our thoughts or so so it's not just sketch and we can serve shake it and you know redraw whatever we want to reduce not really that conservative but whatever so. Let's say that the pandemic froze everything in place and basically Biden wasn't going to introduce any new issues or do anything what much different until the convention cuz. There was nothing in it for him and because, that's just the nature of what was going on, and so he went into the convention with the purpose of broadening the message to moderates, but unifying the Democratic Party behind him. With this vague personal such an all this, while they're gonna be three debates. Let's assume he's got there is now we know.
I know what it is. Seventy to eighty days or seventy nine days until the election and he's gotta say something you now many key just that you can't just say my son died. We call for seventy nine days or you know he's gotta say something and that's gonna be an interesting question about what it is that he says, because obviously what he should do is work to broaden out his support to the extent possible. Predictably, since Donald Trump is due, as has done very little since he was elected to broaden out his support. Well, that's where my question is because that's the x factor now is how trompe has so. We spent the last week very focused.
Democrats, it's the Democrats weaken the spotlight next week is gonna, be all the duty. All trump everything you saw this week will be exactly the opposite next week and it'll go so far in the other direction that it will be repulsive and noxious and guarantee that there's gonna be a lot. We're gonna hate and hamper a publican conventions, but don't drop is going to spend a lot of time speaking and over the course of Joe Biden months in the basement. It was Donald Trump dominated the new cycles and it didn't serve him. Well, so does Joe Biden have to talk about policy? Does Joe Biden have to put me on these bounds gap? But to what extent is he going to spend most of these new cycles, responding to it you're crazy thing it S. Donald Trump says I think, there's gonna be a lot of up. I think the president, I think Joe Biden can count on the president's setting up a lot of oxygen that would not serve jumped down from well enough
what we remember. But I don't remember about the last weeks of twenty sixteen was they dont from just virtually disappeared after commie letter he ceased to dominate the spotlight and just let Hillary Clinton sort of flounder, for we can have a leading up to the election in certain very well in part because they probably didn't think they're gonna lose their been went, but down troncist doesnt seem capable of letting Jo Leinen have enough rope. He seems very intensive. On filling up new cycles in MID taken the spotlight for himself, and so the buying camping can count on that. We had a good strategy, but they come from what I hear he's gonna speak every night, european dimension. Now that's, somebody told me that last night to may so I soon be real. I can't believe it why I believe it, but I live.
Well, what else does he want? It's a four! It's it's like it's like it's like who wants to be a millionaire when it was four nights a week and strip. Remember so was four nights a week and I'm sure Trump was staying there going. How can we just Feldman gets four nights a week and I only get do what the apprentice. This is like four nights in a row of twelve. The Trump show like this is: why he's president? What who and by the way who is going to stand up and talk, I mean we know- is gonna sap and talk right, the couple and Saint Louis who will help people with their. With the guns on the porch and and and young from coming here, I mean there. However, whether it was a meme online, our politics is so poorly served by twitter. They are just they steep themselves in these online phenomena that don't matter in that serve one purpose
to aggravate people? You don't like yeah? I have to say, though, I think the idea of just responding to Trump, from here on out or not just but largely Biden, responding to Trump for You're out is a very dangerous strategy. I don't I don't know how good that is because first off it it, it creates the the impression which would be accurate. That Trump is dictating the dynamic of what's happening and Second, even even one trump is out, they are saying: all sorts of unhinged and false things, his being out. Their creates some excitement about him and, if end in some sense, they're gonna be contributing to that excitement and he doesn't lose every new cycle that you expect him to lose as a result. His saying unhinge things: it doesn't
always go that way right. I think that's true and of course the other of the other part of this is that trumps all trump has. This is why the notion they shouldn't beyond, for I too, either tromp as all the trump has for better or worse, he is who he is he he wins. I think by looking like there's no choice but for him to win in an odd way. It's like Biden not up to, for whatever reason Biden sign up to it. That's why Biden and everybody kept saying Trump is not up to
this job, a bomb, a set of Hilary said it Michel said it he's in over his head he's not up for the job. Why? Why was that the message, because that goes right at what he is trying to say about Biden. It's like reversed psychology binds on up to the job trumpets trying to tell you because he's Cognitive Lee, impaired, trumps, Ives of job has been three and a half years. Look at the condition of the country under him he's not up to the job he's onto the jobs. Oh very, but everywhere every understanding of every incumbent, new site, reelection effort that we know I mean unless this really does break them all which you have to allow for sure, but they need this. The referendum on the incumbent another rather than by continues to be a referendum on incumbent, and vice versa, jumped down from these severe referendum on Joe Biden and to the extent that Joe Biden, doesnt Domini new cycles doesn't talk, is is only an exclusively responding.
To whatever down from sat in the spotlight is already on Donald Trump. How does that serve the referenda? Restaurant? Here's the other possibility, which is what they dig. Presumably the Biden team has done a great deal of research and focus groups in this and that trying to figure out how to be no message their way to November and what, if, what, if they ve just come up with, is this people don't like trump people really didn't like Hillary. In the end, they didn't like Hillary, a little more trump wind by eighty eight thousand votes, people still don't like trump if they like Biden better than Trump he's going to get a hundred thousand more votes in the right places and he's going
that they knew the circumstances under which Trump one were unique to twenty sixteen and were unique in terms of the device of quality of the candidate that he was running against and his unique ability to hit her exactly in the right spot where it hurts, which was the crooked Hilary message and the crooked Hilary message in the Caribbean. Message and he doesn't have purchase on Biden except the senility message and Biden addressed the senility message last night as well as well as he could now. He still has you know three months to go, Christine am, I totally agree with that assessment, and I am sure that is what his consultants are telling him, but there's two to throw a little something in the mix. There is also something going on that the Democrats have not talked about at all and that Republicans, and trunk in particular, would be wise to spend the entire convention talking about in that civil unrest in the nation cities.
He talks about that. It doesn't really matter how likeable Joe Biden is. It doesn't even matter if you think he's slightly addled competence. There does not run to to Joe Biden effect because Tromp then has a story. I sent the feds and they drove the fence out. They told us the fence with a problem. The feds left the problem increase through in this city to see all these democratically run areas are falling into chaos, and crime is making a he can and yes, that'll be called. Your mongering, but people actually are fearful about that and does include some of those voters, not just the women that the men to so there the way in which, if he was disciplined, any had good advice coming towards him, he would pivot whatever his plans for the convention. He beyond their every night, showing that just showing it and night after night. He would be called many things by the Democrats, obviously, but then it does force fighting to respond and to respond to something for which they have actively avoided talking about four months
Let us also american carnage. It is, it is, but the aid it through again but its act, but we have a lot more. But each of the car It was in its surely significant weakness that Democrats don't think they can even addressed this issue, because if they could, they would and Senator Harris represented an opportunity for them to do that at least rhetorically, even if its illusory, but it would still be that opportunity and they decline and that those suggested a signal weakness, while at the same time the Americans perceive that they are surrounded by chaos. I don't think they see Donald Trump as an agent of stability right, that's the risk to that, but if they don't, if they dont them them, then he sunk anyway, because other rights, its fairly clear, I'm that he sunk only
no sense either. People like him more than they say where their their happier with him there happier with them and they say, and that the entire astonishing run up and stock market in the middle of the pandemic, and the recession is more helpful. Then people realise in terms of the hundred and fifty million are heard Sixty million people were in the market either and therefore their foreign or whatever and and that you know seeing the stock market back around twenty seven thousand is comforting to them and that their worried that they know they bring Biden in and and and the markets will will tank. Maybe there's some there's hidden stuff going on there. That is making making people feel better about Trump, that we don't really understand. If that's the case, then you know that
Maybe it doesn't help him to talk. I mean he will talk about civil unrest, but he needs he needs people to feel better about him, just in general than these they are. You know the disapproval number has to not be real in some sense, one understood The way the economy there, because opposing any better for Donald Trump, particularly at the state level, over the course of last week's, even over the course of this week. The democratic convention week, which is in when a sign for Democrats and they should be concerned about it, but sometimes there is this argument that holds well there's a lot of people who would never tell it pollster that their voting for Donald Trump and the people tell posters reporting for John Trump and the same.
Because they look at the polls, people are telling people what they want of over Donald Trump. So it's either one or the other. Either there's a stigma around I'll drop and people won't tell postal bolsters the truth or the poles are right can both. Well, I mean you can because the poles cannot, because it is possible for the Poles not to capture the top lines of the poles, do not capture. What is gonna go on when people actually cast the balance, which is to say all. Is being equal. It would appear that somewhere between forty and fifty percent or fifty and sixty percent of Americans would prefer not to cast a ballot for Trump. All things me will, but all things may not be equal.
And when they have a binary choice and the binary choice involves Trump there there their portfolios, looking better and tramping the one guy who serve once the country to get back to normal, whereas, as I think no says, maybe ask for Biden is a kind of this celebration. S embrace of the disease after that is corona not to say that we're gonna, kill, add or that you know we need to go on. We need to show you know, be resolute and go on end and run the country and brave or whatever, that that all of that means that all in all things are not equal and that they will cast a vote for Trump, despite the fact that fifty four percent of them still disprove him when the job is done and I think there is a concern among Democrats about that in the evidence, for that is the other sort of theme that ran throughout the convention last
week that we're seeing? It's is gonna only ramp up in the weeks ahead, and that is the he's. Gonna try to steal the election thing saw that when they put Stacy Abrams on the democratic governors panel, which was hilarious, we said we see. In the remarks that Hillary Clinton made. I think it was less than early this morning talking about how already predicting that there would be what she calls the intimidate errors at poles just standing there to intimidate voters. They are crafting and have been crafting a narrative of stealing election on their from theirs perspective throughout the last few months, of course there is a problem has been doing. Things similar choose, I'm not you note and Isn t what about isn't, but that it that narrative is far more important to the Democrats. If the election starts to tighten in the months ahead, it's extremely dangerous for them to be going. What they're doing we should say is dangerous, and yours sensible and we have, but at the same time it is something I have said before. His Democrats would really benefit from competent and effective satirists
because putting Stacy Abrams on the democratic governance panel is hilarious, its objective, his earliest Gretchen Whittemore space. The entire time was priceless priceless and if we had a competent institution in the form of the entertainment complex, isn't committed to serving as an arm of the Democratic Party. I mean that the late show has become an arm of it. Might as well be a democratic committee, you can you can write off your donations to delay chop. It is absolutely a campaign apparatus and they just think just can't bring themselves to see humour in in what Democrats have done which, and that is really funny, and people should be marking them for it rope and they are
well, let's just get it at an inn impolite nobody this. This is where this possibility that that the poles as snapshots in time do not register the emotion that people are gonna feel when they actually have when the people who are going to decide the election and they are as as as few was eight percent of the entire electorate who had done they have their minds made up when they actually have to pick and they're looking either at the mail. Valid or there in the full appalling place, and they have to pick or they have to choose whether or not when they look at it they say I've had enough or You know whatever I problems, I have a trump, you know at least
he's going to deal with the least he's going to take it to them or whatever. You know in some some argument like that, now here's what here's? What speaks against that and we're finally already have the election one. We forget that in twenty eighteen, the single best determinant of whether or not people are going to vote action is where they voted in the last election and in twenty eighteen there was the largest mid term turn out in american history. Hundred and eighteen million people cast. A vote and Democrats prevailed by nine percentage points and one those forty, mostly suburban districts, away from Republicans in the house.
They got, but I came remember how many votes sixty million. Fifty some, why have they got sixty million and the rolling has got fifty two million Hilary, Obama got seventy million votes in two thousand and eight, and the two thousand six turn out was like forty percent of what two thousand and eight turnout was. If Biden YO, he may already be ninety five percent there. You know that that, if he's playing prevent defence he's doing it, for a real reason that he can kind of bank sixty million votes and the only needs ten million more and in any case, then tional election circumstance. He could totally count on that because the alleged General try to so much higher. Obviously, we now have the x factor of the pandemic and how many votes would be spoiled if you have mass
Helen Voting and all that- but I know that's the one thing that leads me to believe that their caution prudence is wiser or eat out that they they may really think that if they just don't screw it up, they win. It carry Bab Emily, it could be, I you know, I. Continue to wonder about that. The mid term turn out and- and the Democrats triumph there because I still think there was a sense to that of among the sort of uncounted number of people there yeah, I don't it's. Ok, the trouble But now I want to counterbalance to him because he's reckless and and I I don't know that it was this
wholesale rejection of him as much as a kind of putting up a guard rail because of a general sense of. Using this- and I think I think it makes a difference- will surely- so difference. And obviously there was a huge you know, a revolt against Bill Clinton and ninety four and he won by nine points and ninety six and there was a revolt against abuse, and twenty ten and he won comfortably by four points in twenty twelve. But of course, although those victories were were accompanied by pulling that said that they were gonna win those elections, whereas every all the polling here suggests. That Biden as long as things. Don't change. Biden wins. I mean you know the pole maybe tightening, but by
still outside the margin of error in in the three in the three states that that that handed trumped the election, and if that remains the case, then even the pulling a story bad which it wasn't in twenty six, seem remember just that they know. Buddy was pulling Mitt, wasn't really Pauling Michigan was content, so nobody really sought from coming in in the last ten days and obviously there was malfeasance and the Hilary campaign not not seeing it coming and doing something to to answer it. But you know, if you look at the real, clear politics numbers
basically the big date back six months, all the binds or blue and everything that trump as winning in his is is is red, and it's about ninety percent blue and ten percent read I mean it's not that every pole, pretty estate and and and and national you know if Biden isn't winning than that, no one should ever polygon. So as it is pretty clear that the convention probably didn't, do him any harm and may have done a tiny bit of good but again, if he just doesn't screw up, he may already have not really know until next week in the gulls, but at state level things have been going well for four Donald Trump better than they have been going well, they would go back at random and let you know well is not: is nowhere to go about up split it. Ok, but you just can't you just can't say well, because
because he's a while he is to lose and look at this point in twenty. Sixteen Hillary Clinton had a roughly two point, something leading Wisconsin and the average repulse she finished where Biden is now up about six and state level polling. That's you can't think that's comfortable based on what happened in twenty sixteen in North Carolina over the course of the last couple of weeks. Joe Biden has collapsed, live two to plot out the numbers on a graph makes them look like you, just fell off, a cliff ended, I don't know if it's a five point drop, which is a witch. Ten percent of which is to just ten percent of its total, but it's only trumpets climbing by the way, it's more that Biden that voters appear to be going into the unknown I didn't category which may be needs, as voters want, like forty percent of of North Carolina is
Just your voters are under the age of forty that is binding. Does her bindings people? That's a democratic Iraq is people, they have to turn out run right. No, look. It's not ovary. I've been. All I'm saying is that is that, if Biden wines, we look back and say yeah. They had this from November twenty eighteen onward, and then it was all have to try to change the diner. Mikey was unable to and then the vote, and then the pandemic in them, and they, there were session head and then he really he was just buried under an avalanche, but what will will see they the opportunity? The Trump husband and it is this civil unrest, and you can't turn this country the problem of trumpets that his message and he said it yesterday Pennsylvania's. We can't turn this country over these crazies, which would be a good message if he were an crazy he's out there. You do have to consider the messenger
I mean it's just a problem and you can like em all you like in one of the things you like about Amazon, crazy. It's, like you know what is the flight? Ninety three election he's the pilot who was flying the plane into the ground like that. You know anyway, with that we will. Did you a deal for the weekend? Thank you very much for listening, we'll be back, on Monday, able not be with us and tragically, as he will be, enjoying observed vacation, but when I say that clarify the ideologies of low tragic for us to drag on for him, I'm not, but for Christine Noah and aid job outwards keep the camel.
Transcript generated on 2020-08-22.