« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Open up the Schools, for God's Sake!

2020-10-20 | 🔗
Data from New York City shows without question that schools must be opened. Meanwhile, in Fairfax County, Va., the union is demanding schools remain closed until next September. Something very, very bad is going on here. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily podcast today is Tuesday October twentieth, twenty twenty, I'm John put towards the editor of Commentary magazine inviting you to join us. A commentary magazine dot com to sample the treasures of our seventy fifth anniversary issue. Now online commentary magazine dot com featuring a beautiful personal essay by Joseph Epstein called my commentary about his expense.
It's over seven decades as a commentary, reader writer and now sort of like a senior statesman peace by Matt Continuity on commentaries, historic role in its effect on american foreign policy and think about the world and a conversation between me and my legendary father nor imports about the experience of editing commentary. Christine Rosen has a big piece in their called Joe Biden. Big lie got a fantastic peace by James Mags on why the media's think at science, Josh Mirage check on on how Israel helped when the Cold WAR Barton Swain on Thee were on the evil of the elites. Terry teach at on Cary Grant Rob long on Cuban on just allow
and really amazing peace by mere solid nature. On the Abraham, a cord so join us commentary, Magaziner Cairo, you'll be able to read. A couple of things are going to want to read more so you know you're supposed to do right. Dennis Subscribe, subscribe Commentary magazine that calm, seventy fifth anniversary. We are now one the oldest surviving magazines in America and probably in the west, and there's a reason that we have survives and thrive so take a look. With me, as always: executive editor, Abraham Waldheim how John Senor writer Christine rose high Christine I turned and associate editor no Rossman high Noah, who else is having a great day I'm having a great day, I'm not really gonna go into depth about. Why I'm having a great day but a long time
friend of me, enemy of mine has been laid low, and so I I, as as Clive James lay Clive James once wrote one of the great comic poems of our time called the book of my enemy has been remainders, and so I am sort of in that position with that with today's most note various story in media and social media, but I'm not going to go into any depth just to say that I am in a deeply sunny mood today and- and this is not good generosity day. For me, let me just move on to say. Another reason that have crushing morality is all this news that suggests that, despite the bad turn in the corona virus numbers that people really should be reopening scheme,
Also, the New York City school system did a random sir eleven thousand students, which is about one percent of the population of this of the school system. Eleven thousand students, eighteen positive corona case- Eighteen, I dont even know that that shows up as a percentage number eighteen out of eleven thousand, I'm sure does like point o o one percent or something like that, which obviously means that they need to reopen the schools five days a week now, however, the Fairfax County public schools in Virginia one of the most affluent school districts in America
has announced. Its teachers, unions has announced that they believe that the school system should be closed. Till August, twenty twenty one drawn hold the line by keeping Fairfax carry public schools virtual. Furthermore, of the twenty twenty one school year. Science and health safety data support require that no one should return to in person instruction until there is a widely available scientifically proven vaccine or highly effective treatment. So now we really get to the nub of this, which is: are they just saying this because they cause they prefer staying home? And I don't want to commute and then I'm gonna be in a building and they would they it's fantastic for them. There said not a screen, blather ring, they look at a screen, see kids, don't see kids or they don't even see kids, because they're, not they're, not doing this so
hours a day. This is disgraceful, they should all be fired. The entire school system should be repopulating with new teachers. As far as I can tell all the data that we have support the reopening of schools almost if you can open reopen the schools in New York City, where there is an outbreak now you can reopen them everywhere. At does end. One- have any argument with this. I'm sick cause like I know, I'm getting kind of crazy one. Other data point I want to share with you again in the middle of
sitting in the middle of an outbreak, blah blah blah. My son school, the Abraham, Joshua Hassle School, did testing every single child and staffer at the school was tested. Last week, thirteen hundred and sixty tests done one positive. I mean, I know what you gonna do do some kind of demographic study that says the jewish day. School kids are less likely to get the virus. I thought Jews were all super sweaters because we got all these, but you we want to go to school and we got all these big things that are killing people anyway. That's my rant, Christine you have kids were not allowed to go to school. Yes, I I have I have is absolutely am appalled quite frankly, because with a similar problem here in DC, where the teachers unions, have believed, cajoled and threatened. The mare were, who was
actually starting two inch towards a more reasonable reopening play, until they all showed up in front of her office in through body bags at the door, and then it was now we're shutting down till after the election or sorry after the term, which also happens to coincide with the election, and you know that the most recent new dickering to try to bring back some elementary school students, but there's there's a lot of opposition to that, but for high schoolers, which is what my kids are there they're not even talking about reopening. In January, we ve heard of a plan for reopening in the spring and I think to the point about will follow. The science will follow the data. There is a huge amount of data and science now about the with the negative effects on students of not having in person learning particularly students. who are the most vulnerable, who are in low income, households where they have allowed of chaos in their domestic lives and school, is the one certain stable structure they get good meal.
ere they get adult supervision and, and they get an education. So I think that the idea that the tea? the Union'S- will very soon already hurtling towards us. If you look at the data, certainly in places like New York, but in fair county here in DC and others they are hardly for the iter the moment in the near future. I think in the next few months where they will be actively working against the interests of their own students by demanding that school stay close. All of these places have the will can can he's. They set up a situation where there is an option for some sort of virtual learning for high risk groups right. That is a small percentage of students. They do this with the IP students who have their own educational plans. If they have learning challenges, it's not impossible to do. There is not the political will among these leaders to do it. and there certainly doesn't seem to be a political will among the union's I'm not saying the teachers. I'd know, I've spoken to lots of individual teachers who are appalled that they have so little there so little effort to reopen. So I think,
there's gonna be a serious challenge in the new year for a lot of school districts, not just DC in Fairfax County, but all over the country the ones into reopening found ways to do it. I think parents should start getting much two more vigorous about challenging their leadership on this, I'm around its, not just dark blue guinean heavy states. There was eager in Idaho yesterday there was a court It had set out five hundred teachers said we're not show up, and so schools had to stay close. Now. Everybody has followed the data really closely knows that we have a lot of evidence to suggest that transmission in places like schools is, is difficult and that not your schools by the way, but other places that had been the sources of anxiety, like movie theater. and aeroplanes. We don't have evidence of major super spreading events or even spreading immense transmission in these places. It simply based on a hundred We're just gonna do now knows that
but also in the case of planes, there's a new U S, military study, that says it is almost impossible to to spread of the virus on a plane, not just that, but we had data last month it for the first time since the virus started a million passengers were screened by tee essay in the United States flying that's a million people in planes were does the outbreak, yet we are aware, or paper were yeah. I had a few changing or have a filter every twenty minutes in recirculated here It makes little sense it it's difficult to transmit, but what we do now- and this is why I have little sympathy for Idaho's teachers no time but that community transmission is the issue not in school, so eager schools are lower transmission rates and the community in which their situated usually but the correlated which make sense.
So if your community is experiencing a spike like Idaho's, is at least not completely irrational to be trepidation, about going outside that same thing cannot really be said for the northeast, not right now, unless you think that the nation exists as this, as a whole, and we should really be breaking this data by states and we should really be just focusing on the country as a whole and there's no. The uniform approach to that. It's really whatever is most politically advantageous at the time for whatever political faction is making their argument that we should count. The nation, as a country, in all other cases uniformly and as as one hole or break it up by States- and it just depends on the political objective, your seeking in the market want to lead to the point about changing you. Did the Fairfax County really statement really struck me because they said Until we have a vaccine or useful treatments, we already have useful treatments. If you look at hospitalization asian death rate, it's very clear that their that
the medical community gotten better handle on how to treat people who presented at an icy your emergency room with with covert and most people, don't Meanwhile, those numbers are far way down across the country, but what I thought was interesting is that, if the new goalposts that's being established here is a working vaccine than you also have to have some sort of compulsory measure to insist, everybody get backs and aided and that's gonna never happen like they're they're gonna be people who opt out the good people who resists getting guides and aided, and so I just it. My fear is that even once we have a vaccine they're, not gonna, get to the percentage of people that say that they're gonna just keep shifting these goalposts too. As no said to pursue a political objective that really has nothing to do with the safety of either the students or the teacher. Do we talk briefly? about how incredibly reckless and irresponsible that democratic governors have been about. This vaccine crazed there during its now cool to be an Anti Baxter like us.
This was a native to the right. This kind of paranoia Ver the end already of my understanding of this issue until a couple of weeks ago, at which point it became super sooper, Hip2, suggested Tromp was trying to rush out of vaccine self somehow annex comply election. That election day is now in two weeks. There's not going to be you a rushed approved vaccine before election day and we still have people Andrew Cuomo in New York and Gavin Newsome in California, who talking about creating independent panels and missions to study whenever the FDA approves because it can't be trusted and chemical PAMELA Harrassing, now I'll take it if the if The scientists say it's alright, but not if Donald Trump says it's all right. This is incredibly responsive
and it is driving down support for taking back seen too dangerous to dangerous levels. The the survey that I have here from SAT Harris two thousand people conducted between October seven contempt, found that the only fifty nine percent and then said they would get the vaccine right away down from about seventy percent in August and fewer than than them applause only a less than a majority of black respondents. Forty three percent down from sixty five percent in August said they would the vaccine, African Americans are uniquely vulnerable to this thing, and that is something the Democrats would be responsive to if the political incentive wasn't to be opposed to Donald Trump, whatever the opposition to Donald Trump consists of. It is reckless in the extreme irredeemable right. Well, I mean this is where we get to the heart of the leaves
her locking points. So there is the question of whether or not what is going on here, and I daresay it's not a conspiracy. It is more like a kind of mood that has overtaken people who have an antipathy to Trump and wish to see him defeated that the the virus is a stand in for everything, the condition of the country and that should the condition of the country change as result of the election, then the way that we proceed after the election is going to change, because suddenly we will have reason to hope that things will be better and we will have reason to believe that the science will be working for us instead of against us, and we will have reason to believe you yet another so as well.
You have been alluding to over the course of the last couple of months. We kind of expect that abiding victory is going to result in a sea change in the way public. Visuals on among liberals and leftist and Democrats start talking about the future and the disease and a more hopeful, more optimistic, more appealing way because they are gonna want to change the narrative here and they are going to feel different about the future and all of that, then question is what if tromp prevails, if Trump prevails, are we going to be in this world of no one? No one gets the vexed. There won't be a vaccine which can trust the vaccine and what, if Trump, you know, fires voucher after the election, because that that's the that's been the default like I'll. Listen to found she I'm not gonna, listen to Trop right, I'm not gonna, listen to trouble, I'm gonna listen to fancy
from clearly heads voucher. He would like I'm gone if he wins the election, he can. He can fire him and then it'll be I'm never taking a vaccine cause of trump. Nothing will reopen. Ever again. The entire country will be driven will be punished for real acting trump by forcing us to remain, at least in the larger states in this case, Sean of doldrums as long as is humanly possible and again, the incentive structure for Cuomo Newsome is exactly what you think it is, according to the latest, newer time see an appeal well. I believe- or maybe the pr I Paul from yesterday. Seventy five to ninety percent of people included,
mature, a majority of Republicans believed that the cautious and prudent approach to the virus and the work threats a second outbreak and all of that that proper and there are these- been a vast majorities for masking and all of this. So it's not as though the public is gonna turn on them, and so you know we are again in some condition of existential blackmail where, if, if Biden doesn't win emotionally, the these guys are gonna leave us in this condition of attenuation for as long as they themselves can tolerate it end.
and that to get to the other thing this than dovetails with. I think these teachers unions going. You know what this isn't so bad. I get to stay home. I don't have to look at the you know. I don't have to deal with. You know you know Kevin were there. You know pulling so and so the grade No, it's all happening on zoom and who cares if the kids are brains are being fried for twenty years we have been told if your apparent
Let kids use screens an hour or two hours a day, if at all, don't let them live on screens bad for their tents, bad for their soul. It's bad for their psyche is alienating it. It distances them from real life and real experiences. That means they don't read. It means they. Don't have lat long focused, we have now integrated these devices eight hours a day into school. It eight hours a day now, unless, if all of that was nonsense, fine, I'm actually willing to believe that all of that screens are terrible. Stuff is nonsense, but they haven't said it's now nonsense and it's okay to be on screens at eight hours a day. So let's say it's not nonsense. So
in order to protect the couple of billion people or to protect with quotes. Rather than couple million people who work in schooling, seventy five million kids are having their brains fried through their ears. This is not, I don't. I was gonna say this is not said stuck in a stand, there's gonna be a revolt, but of course there is already revolt, but the revolt is by the moneyed. Nor vault is all these people essentially setting up schools there, setting. these pods these education pods with tutors. Nobody that right right. Yet you know we call that a school it's a one room schoolhouse ever saw ever seen. One room school has a rural place, it's a building. It stands there. There were like fifteen kids in it in all grades and there's one teacher to teachers and their helping all the kids in different ways,
where build it. So people of means are building one room, school houses all over the country and poor blackened hispanic, kids and poor white kids. Are having their brains come out of their learning. just the poor, kids, it's anyone who can't afford to either devoted to do not work focused solely on educating their kids themselves in a home school like environment, where some people have been able to do, but not but he can do that and there's plenty of people who are still trying to do their jobs every day that working parents who can't afford the pod system, but don't have this, manpower to actually a hundred percent numbskull their kids. That's a lot of people too. I'm I'm among them. A lot of us are just doing the best we can with our kids and honestly. If this goes into the spring it We ve been better if a lot of these school districts that have these extremely at these extremists, you
and takes on this- had just cancelled the school year, because then we could have just done a bunch of stuff with our kids and not worried about meeting any metrics that are that are gonNA a very little for them and just called it a wash for everyone right, because the other stealth thing I'm noticing is all the discussions how grades are bad and grades are unfair and that there is a whole social movement that wants to change the way we assess student performance, this year is going to give them a whole lot of fodder for those arguments, arguments that are that our long term very pernicious, an end about undermining sanders. Well, they're gonna, I'm more open to him. I don't think it's fair to assess kids based another learning right now, because it's completely tomorrow, to learn this way, for these kids particularly mean for all ages. Each at it is right- and it is already happening- writes a sickly for college prep, the boards or dead right. The people are not going to be required to take
I say to you a city as seniors for admission to college, in twenty twenty and for the twenty twenty one. Twenty twenty two school year The interesting question about that which goes to this whole issue of whether or not these boards are fair, unfair or are they meritocratic work because they can be gained by by people have enough money study for them, whether they should be done away with the real question is: will they be brought back once we get to the twenty twenty to twenty three school year, because
Maybe these emissions departments will be happier to do it without them because they don't have to deal with all people complaining that its unfair, of course, what's interesting there is. You, then, have an ambitious process that turns entirely subjective, not that it's not already subjective its plenty subject it. But there was this one thing, these two things that people had, that these departments they'd these admissions offices had that were not impressionistic. One was grades and the other was these bored. So in theory
can compare students based on how they do in terms of their grades, even though summer and bad schools in summer and good schools- and you can compare them in some broad measure by how they do on these tests because they all take them. Even if it's not fair, because certain kid seem to have an advantage because they have enough money to hire tutors or go to a Princeton Review class or whatever right. So that's the college left. then we're talking about what Christine's talking about, which is. How are they gonna great there? Are they gonna great kids based on zoom education like these, these. Teachers will never meet these kids physically. If they dont have school there, just there just little polluted stay, I'm sorry, I do anything, you can only have the curse. I was at the current time. They don't even literally see their fate. It is because in some of these schools, because a privacy concerns Europe, these kids are not required to turn their cameras on for class. There just required to log in so there are plenty of
When I spoke to many, my son seizures alike, I haven't even seen some kids faces because that's a policy meant to protect the students, but in fact I think it harms them. Ultimately, they dont imitate the teachers can have complete. The outsourced are able to outsource because they have no control over the situation. All the responsibility for maintaining any sense of a classroom characteristic an engagement, and they can't it's not possible to do that with virtual learning and in many cases they don't even see their students at the elder gray levels at worst. So let's take a step back and let me talk to about two days sponsor we're sponsored today by donors, trust the principled and tax friendly way to simplify your charitable give
Let me give you a scenario that donors trust has given me. Each year, Sally invests in numerous charities with her finances in time. Now, thanks to a recent property sale, she also has the resources to support these charities long term. She could have written personal checks to accomplish for charitable goals, but instead she opened the donor advised fund at donors, trust I don't trust she knew she would spend less time and administration and more time having an impact. A donor advice fund is like a charitable savings account where you could manage your giving it a smart tax, advantaged and private way. Donors trust is unique. Working with donors at all levels who share our commitment to the freedoms and principles that strengthen America, donors trusts philanthropic advisers can help me sharp
you're giving discover new groups and define your charitable legacy. Join the community of Liberty minded donors at donors, trust to see how a donor advised fund could benefit your giving go to donors, trust, dot, Org slashed commentary for our six reasons to use a donor advised fund, that's donors, trust, dot, Org, Slash commentary, and we thank donors, trust for sponsoring the commentary magazine. podcast, so there we are- and we also have this other question about kids and disease and the super spreading of the disease None of us is an epidemiologists, we're all wording on the fly. I think
fair to say that whenever I have a conversation about this stuff with schooling with people who are more nervous than I am, they say, but kids are superstructures. Their super sweaters, em, they're, Deb out they'll make the teacher sick they'll make the elder SEC, and I I just I M not sure that's true. We were told in July and August that it was likely to be true, and then that idea was then bolstered and ballasted by this. These stories about colleges when kids got back to college and all these people testing positive.
and so that was a proof that they were all getting each other sick and therefore they were super sweaters. They would get everybody else sick, but those stories stopped like around the second week in September. I believe the number of hospitalizations that we are whereof from those suppose it outbreaks on campuses, hospitalization it was three and remember. We are still four people, twenty five and under I believe that the death toll from corona.
Is somewhere around five hundred out of the two hundred and twenty thousand who have died? So basically, kids are not getting sick, they are not super spreading. As far as we can tell the opening of schools where they have been opened, cuz, it's thought the whole country is shut down, have not seen outbreaks. When is this conversation? Gonna shift to the fact that this is a disease that is uniquely deadly to the old witch we knew at the beginning, and this notion that there's going to be a massive outbreak of this disease and it's going to spread among the youth. has largely been disproven by our seven months. Experience with it
yeah. We knew this ahead of time. There was no evidence or data abroad where schools were open to suggest that this was going to be a source of transmission. It was claim made without evidence. The claim is still being made it contradicting existing evidence just to put it in a final point on it: Brain University is that in the end of September, when we started opening the schools and actually have a couple of weeks, data to look back on a brain university conducted, a study found that confirmed cases among students was point of seventy percent and point one: five percent for teachers really just below the at which it sits, even it's a thread, its measurable, but its barely a threat and the reason it this is something that people are watching on tuna in effect,
the best way is the same reason that they're going after the vaccine is because to do anything otherwise, would be to admit the Trump Administration was right. The trumpet ministries has been actively lobbying schools to open. They did so, I think more with the polluter. objective in mind them, but there were. It was a political objective that was supported by the data and runs contrary to the interests of the constituents in the Democratic Party and so excited with their constant This is a very simple story, the sordid one it's an honourable one, but it's not one, that's hard to tell and is probably up to us to tell it does no one else really wants to, but there is no evidence to suggest that this was a big problem and the Trump Administration was her cited and that their policy recommendations were backed up by data. They were right and they deserve to get credit for it. On that point about the trumpet constriction having been right. So if you look at Europe down
Ireland just went down into into her into a new national lockdown and Europe, European Union numbers generally now day after day, they have higher case rates than the. U S does week after week now. Does that mean that is if, if Trump and his administration has handled this so poorly here. Does that mean that everything that now that Europe is doing worse than us every day? Does that mean that every leader among those european nations, it has done a worse job than Trump that he's that he's the talking When was where the worst in the world right and in relative terms and in absolute terms. Whatever terms you wanna make, we were the worst, never was supported by evidence. It was always another ask expression of antipathy towards the president. We don't evaluate this virus like it's a virus, evaluate it like it's a political circumstance like it's a controversy.
That's why there's? Third there's a there's, a real disappeared body count because of that. I think that. The most egregious. Obviously, since he's out there flagging his book about how we saved New York from Covert was Cuomo and the nursing home statistics which ever time someone brings them up. Some one else trace a swat them away, and he himself actively lies about this when he's talking about how he did with covered, but I think even geopolitically they're gonna be just countless death that are never counted because it wasn't a covert death, but it is a sign. death related to cope with the people who died at home alone of illnesses that could have been treated in a hospital, but they didn't go because of what was going on a covert and the lock down the people who didn't get cancer treatment. For preventive screening. I mean actually in the UK which is going through another kind of tiered locked down right now. They ve had a couple of studies of various regions in the UK.
They ve got a number that they can estimate about death that would have that were preventable. If it folks had not been answered serious I've done. So theirs and even beyond the sort of horrifying two hundred thousand plus tests in the. U S, they're gonna be all these other people who who perished, because of them because of our policy choices. Some of those probably were not avoidable, especially at the height of the pandemic and certain cities, but there's were and those those lives matter too. I frustrates me to know and everytime Cuomo is- is praised as some sort of amazing leader and I don't have a new Yorker must be worse for you guys, but it I do think those those are the people and the deaths that we don't want to talk about, because it points exactly to what nor was saying which has many of these decisions were political, though, by the way this is to say that say. Trumps peculiar refusal to serve advocate openly for the wearing of masks is responsible
to do the whole point, as I only have the whole point about masking, is it is the lowest cost least intrusive form of prevention that there is now people clearly take it very personal. they don't like it, they don't like wearing them. They don't like being told that they should wear them. They don't like you know this. Is this great division in American cited between people, for whom the safety culture is paramount and who really want?
to be told how to live in a way that is safe and they like safety regulation. They, like you, know, laws that control diet and and and how you drive and what you do and what you should do with your kids in car seats are not that that that is comforting to them. It makes them feel better, it makes them feel safer, and then you have the world of people who do not, as adults like to be told by authorities how they are to live their lives and how they are to comport themselves and trumpet speaking to that second body of opinion. With all of this, it is a kind of message breaking through the media narrative that he is with them and not with the safety we these. The problem is that masking is nothing you know. It's not
walk down. The mask is a way of avoiding a walk down the mask as a way of saying I, you know. If I have it- and I don't- I probably don't, but there are one or two percent chance that I have it, I'm not going to spread it to you and you do the same for me and it's a kind of mutual. You know it's like the walking around insulting people are not walking around naked us like you, could walk round naked it'll, be embarrassing, to you and I'll be shaming. Other people will be so horrified by it or you know whatever you want to do and zoom call, but I'm not going there. Only people who are the New Yorker led to a random. Ok, you know, and so, if it, if you then stipulate that this culture is being driven and defined by the bye, they require
stood the demand that you were a mask. Then you are providing no secure, no safety, nothing, I mean that's. The interesting aspect of this is that the Democrats are pushed into locked down and then that and in turn pushes the kind of Trump side of the discussion into nothing. rush like not only dont locked down, not only open schools, not only open restaurants and bars, and everything like that, but dont socially distance, and don't whereabouts sewed up for the only answer to that is the vaccine this now, but this is where I think tat. If Trump had been a different person or even was capable for a couple of weeks, different messaging, his own experience with the virus and his recovery from it could have been something the damp and that, because I agree, is completely irresponsible. How we talked about this on numerous-
patients and the people who will wear masks? Searches. You know, did bit ridiculous like just put the basket. It's really now Big ask he turned it into one for his own political purposes, but he could have you know as actually creditor Criss crossed, it did sort of say. I was irresponsible. I should have been more careful. I should have worn amass, that's actually what leadership looks like and he has been a poor leader. So if this election and being a referendum on his handling of the virus, he should lose by However, however, if he wins and we should go into the school, but I suspect, if he wins, this will act, may be why he wins that what we have here is not a shy trump voter, but a shy mass water, which is to say people are lying to pollsters about their comfort or
willingness to wear masks and to do in a preventative measures, because, as I say, we see these Paul's, like seventy five percent or preposterous numbers of people know has been saying this. For me, say they wear masks all the time right. Ninety percent of people say they were mass when they go outside. We know that is not true. I mean it's get it's pretty close to being true in Manhattan. From what I can tell. It is really weird to see someone without a mask now, but of course we lived through hell here, and people are still very rattled and there are you know you can't get a subway without wearing a mask and you Wouldn'T- and you can't gonna- buy
there were a mask and you wouldn't, but what? If those people are saying? Yes, I wear masks and then trumped gets this big vote and he will begin the vote because it will be you. People have driven us crazy with all this this this what's goin on here. We won't take it, but we can't tell you we feel this way, as we know that that's our id talking, that's not really much first, it is that its anti basque vote so much as I think there are a number of a number of people out there and there's probably growing as as long as this, as this goes on, who are getting something from the happy talk from the Trump Happy talk? They want to believe this is over, are just about to be over or are you not watching Trump in Arizona yesterday, and they I believe what his message was there about the virus which was crossing the top, but how he could have after having recovered from it. Don't Christie kind of may culpa
but trumps message was see. I told you it's nothing. Less than five went in. I did feel good. I took the cure them out there and got sick, not them like nothing. You know, and I think I think there is a hopeful- a sort of you years ago a kind of wishful vote, perhaps that that, if we take the right kind of How did you do if we don't drive ourselves crazy with this life will go on searching we and persuasive for a variety of reasons, one maybe we'll get into later, hopefully, which is the divergence and pulling, for example, and in the coming there. Where you have a whole lot of people who are people are being honest to pollsters, because a lot of people who don't support Donald Trump to support her
so the notion here that everybody's lying pollsters, based in a partisan preferences, is, does betrayed by a variety of other conditions. Secondly, you have to ignore all of the Trump administration and just pay attention only to the president to get this happy talk when it comes to masts, for example, CDC director Redfield testified before arrests that, even in the advent of a vaccine, maybe seventy percent for effective and quote, if I get an immune response. A vaccine is not going to protect me. This face mask will, in other words, face MAX, are never going away ever because of european content, I see it as a matter of you were a mask. Everyone else has to say another word with you will have to enforce mass in your local environments for the rest, eternity yeah as a core.
to the Trump Administration right. But that's when you remember this, there is a whole controversy about. This were trumps said that Redfield misspoke and I think he did Miss speak because the whole point about the mass is for you not to spread the disease to some one else, not that it's there as a as a filter, in that you don't, you know, inhale talker, that's what I said. So it doesn't move your right compromised. Everyone in your environment has to be mass. That's what he sat right. Nobody, I don't think you're gonna, because taking their milk is not only through the Kurds who is ok anyway, you're right, that the add that their their multiple messages, but I'm in aid, is right that maybe people want to hear that it's all all going away, but the behaviour of trumpets Lou like when he wants to quote Winston Churchill right who said who said, keep calm and carry on and with all of this
Churchill went into the bunker when the air raid siren went off. He didn't Walk around in London saying come at me MA. Am you know, that's where it you know, you're not saying the mask as the middle ground. It's that it's the it's the way you deal with stuff so that you can go on to do other things, and it's a real metaphor for our politics: rikers. The polarization is the only we have polarization and you probably have quantitatively more people write their words like you know it. I hate wherein the mass, but I'm gonna, do it no urgency. I went on a plane for how many hours and you're like a terrible, but it's what you do that most people, I think that's most reasonable Americans who want to do the right thing if there are uncertain that it might be a little much which is doing, but that's not how our politics works anymore. Right,
polarization on either side to see their total lockdown you're all gonna die your grandma killer or its. You know and you see here no problem. I beat it look at me, and so I do think there. I agree with the aid that the happy talk is actually refreshing. After the doom and gloom lockdown talk of so many months, but I dont think most Americans you they mistrusted even they want to hear it. Janata mean it's ok, I want to complain Christine Noah and here's war even I wear glasses and you guys don't wear glasses and you have no. I what a pain in the ass the mass is ongoing. sunglasses Monday, we sense Without I see that there is every Sunday yeah, and you are one only when the soccer field to wear your mass on the soccer field, which doesn't make out,
Are you sorry wary sunglasses one day a week is not the same as walking around in a state of purpose. the tool like your. I reflects that you're either had in room. We really Do you know why you're what you're going through and we do it says though Broadway in Manhattan- is a steamroller. That's all I'm saying there so I bought it away. I've submitted, I do. I wear the mask now outdoors at all times with my glasses flagging up, because I don't want to be scolded by others. That is the sole reason and that's just wasn't what society in the case of just follow director reveals logic here, because I think it makes perfect sense. We have the advent of this vaccine its roughly. Seventy percent reflective, like us, vaccine. People Horum, you know compromised, are not protected or perceived to not be protected by this vaccine If you go outside without a master killing him, you know, compromise people were
is supposed to do where they supposed to stay inside forever. Herself assure you, but this third, our life. Now I don't know I saw say for the goose- was to stay inside forever if your immune compromises and that the whole point of that movies Julia had more than fifteen twenty or twenty five. To whenever the hell that was uttered, I'm just I'm being I'm being silly, but you know Obviously, the entire society can't be designed to you know to be afflicted, and slow down and live a with with it, with economic growth or like that for a relatively tiny number of peace.
But what have you with us go away? We look back on it like it's, a moral panic, yeah, there's just no there's no reckoning for it. There's no, like Reconciliation Commission about who went crazy, where it's a sort of we all chalk up to madness in and move on, but but you can't say that a virus that has killed two hundred and thirty thousand people and is likely now probably to reach three hundred thousand by the end of the year. Assuming no, you know, assuming that things stay out of the way they are. They kind of go
the way their going, that that was madness. That's three hundred thousand extra deaths, that's not the flew at once again, we are ten times more virulent than the flu. Now you can make some kind of weird cost benefit analysis, and it's not weird. I mean the problem is this will be the work of social science for the next decade and figuring out what had lost income due to life expectancy? What is this? What is do that? Can you quantify the opportunity cost We're posed by our response to the locked up in terms of lives and whether that blood untangle ADA here, though, is that this is all a lie: we're gonna lockdown forever, because we're killing you no compromise people even after a vaccine is not gonna happen, because this is all a lie. We already have the predicate to declare an ally which is the Rachel saying and I we never actually advocate locked towns and their only really affected in the most extraordinary circumstances, where you have unrestrained community transnational
that's it. That's really really concern on which we use all this stuff in the post from there. You have it needs, saying this and the W h us said this: its lost all of its credibility and now Britain's on a walk down and Israel's on a locked down and they blame they modified than they unmowed of fire now Sweden's about to lock down, because it seems to determine the ex experiment and living unlock down had an unex. ably high casualty rain. I dont know I mean it's all too complicated. If it were only us and our response has been the only response, then we might be able to say we are crazy and everybody else we were like, the tax and we live in the safety culture that is so awful but its first. can tell every country on earth did some modified version of this, at least at some point during the course of the spread of the virus in response to political circumstances, not by certain scientific circumstances
which is fine because everybody dies it if everyone, if two hundred you know countries did it or every advanced country on earth, did at the time local circumstances are they help circumstances. I mean, You know, I don't know you separate public health. If it's a universal response at some point, you have to say that there is some, this was the only what policy preference so call it a public policy prevent it was only a public policy preference you're, not deferring to dispassionate panels of scientists to our guests, are far sighted and see with clairvoyant vision into the future that you're just responding to poles, but it was the only
available response. There was no other available response, except to say, will take our chances and see if we can develop heard immunity. There was no available response and politicians can't stand there and do nothing. They can't I meet as we ve now seen, because politicians of every ideological stripe and authoritarian countries in democracies left wing governments right wing governments. All of that did respond in a fundamentally common way that maybe we led them and we were being idiots leading them this way, but that's just the way it is now. Let's move on before we close to some of the stuff we wanted to talk about Polly. I have one thing to say about falling, and then you have interesting things to say about Amy, Coney, Barrett Paulie. Ah, there's a pull out today in your time, Sienna nine points, Biden, fifty trump, forty one, the response,
So this as I've seen on social media, since it came at five o clock this morning, is panic, its panic, because it's not larger and a lot of people, liberals and people hate Trump are now consumed with the freak out that forty or forty five percent of the public, let alone enough to win. The electoral college support him at all because they have no work themselves up into a frenzy in which any person on earth preferring Trump to buy is a contributor to the death of democracy and hope and agree on Russia, racism, I know what our else you, you want slice slice it and they it's two weeks till the election. Everything is, as we keep saying, everything is going their way. Thirty, five million people have voted
If you believe the poles are generally correct. That would mean that if they are as snapshots of right now, that Abiden is now around four forty four and a half million votes ahead of trump. if you do the math on you know if you apply the polling nationally to their early voting figures as as defined by party, so he's already, four million ahead and Hilary only one by three Ashley and so and there's another two weeks of early voting to go, and I know you're not was to bank really votes and all that. But you know this is now paralleling if binds about nine points, ahead, Democrats and twenty eighteen one nationally by nine points, and they got forty how seats and they won everywhere. That Biden needs to win in or her to take these
throw college back, they won in suburban Michigan, they won in suburban Pennsylvania, they won in suburban Ohio and so the only place that they didn't really have a great showing was in Florida, but they won in TAT this they won in Arizona. I mean this is no joke, so they it's not that they should be happy or not nervous or, like you know two weeks ago, but panic I'm telling you they're panicking and its two very interesting response. Anybody you. What are you hearing wagon the women? But this has been the case now. I think for a while that that, where there is pennant by me. Is it mixed in with a little triumphal ism? Still, I am I, I mean there's a kind of Lincoln Project. Try I'm right, as you know, which, but the Lincoln Project Triumphal ISM is hey. Look at us
raised, fifty million dollars and we spent twelve on administrative costs. You know what that means: they're making a lot of money. This is the best thing that ever happened to these guys. They left. You know the world of research What can consulting money? Is pouring down on their heads, they're gonna by a private plain, I'm not kidding so there, of course, they're happy and they think it's going their way, but you can, I just say one thing about that: the focus that we all tend to have on elections about you know how how elite the elite panic if Trump might wind Israel and, I think, would be both delicious and sort of a horrifying to contemplate watching for for another four years, but. There's also, I think, what's been concerning me- is the de attitude about the forty six percent or whenever, if Trump loses, what will that elite then think of almost half of the rest of the country that did vote for
right because it's not it's still gonna be a fair number of people who cast a vote for Donald Trump and we We don't have a great way right now because of the polarization of our politics to allow people to lose gracefully forget tromp, he's not gonna lose gracefully, but what about the people who voted for him? have a myriad number reasons to have voted for him that legitimately think that he should have banned. You know given office for another four years, how if Biden, wins how his folks and how the media in particular, retreat that forty, six or forty five percent or whenever it ends up being, I think, is, is I'm concerned about what that's gonna look like? Has there's there's a huge number of people in this country who do want Donald Trump in office, even if they don't like him personally, and I dont think that miss innocent Contemptuousness, with which we ve seen those people treated by our lead institutions for four years, is gonna fatal
Finally, but there there are some some challenges ahead for those are culturally with regard to trump voters. I think I worry, I just know it so to talk to us all, but about a Me Coney Baron. What you were we were alluding to before yeah. Just at the polling indicates that term the democratic strategy around any country bear at which this multi faceted has completely imploded. We ve been I'm pulling mostly at a morning consult generally showing her favor ability you. She entered this confirmation process after her nomination, pretty polarizing figured generally, not actually well liked and a lot of trepidation and just our opposition to the notion that she should be confirmed your election day and then we're in council began to show it took up even before her confirmation hearings during the confirmation hearing, sir per favorability ratings increased pretty dramatically,
and we have some new data. Today. You cited the Sun New York Times C and uphold the last of the of the cycle and both the primary aspects. The primary pincers of this democratic strategy have collapsed, pretty pray precipitously Do you think the Senate should vote to confirm the nomination of aiming Connie Barrett before the election? They asked voters and astounding plurality, forty seven percent approved of her confirmation before election day, only thirty nine percent were against it and further. If they may come to bear, it is confirmed the Supreme Court The Democrats pursue an increase of the size of the Supreme Court that a k a court packing that proposition is preferable to less than a third of the electorate. Thirty one percent say yes, they should go for that almost sixty percent,
saying no and this details with a Gallup poll out this this morning. shows a majority. Fifty one percent support confirming any coney a barrier to the bench. I didn't say when, but it's pretty understood well understood at this point, that this is gonna, be before the election. Forty six percent disapprove, which shows you the the polarizing nature of this. I think the scalpel is kind of an interesting artifact of this election cycle, because shows that most people have an opinion on this thing, which is sort of an interesting reflection of the general election, but is not a perfect proxy for the general election, because his fifty one percent support her come I shall includes a fair number of people who do not support Donald Trump Obviously Rikers treasure in this game, poles of forty one percent. So now allowing gallop gallop. Doesn't I'm sorry, I'm sorry, but just to bring one final?
observation, which is a little bit levity on my part in it's just something that I that a hammer home pretty often among independence, fifty two percent berets confirmation which gallop found is identical to what it was independence when there were replacing Justice Ginsburg, which suggests that enough to me, which is republic horse of mine let us call it the independent moderate voter is the antidote for partisan and radiological excesses is. Lately nonsensical, because these people do not evaluate things based on traditional met. We would normally evaluate things on like who these people are and what they support radiological priors near policy preferences. They vote on more of instinct actual notion. of light like what a person, maybe municipalities, are, grounded the dress, Burgundy right Van person,
compartment. If I am wrong in your story in all laboured under the dress, magenta bargaining, it was rejected. I know it's magenta of it has made our lives. We have an ongoing battle about a feller preferred day during the rats berry. better? Even yes, yes, liquor, what is more Murray pubs just to do for the sake of being provocative? What, if what the the support for any kind of shared tell you is that maybe this is actually capturing a more accurate state of the country on Trump, because it because because isn't it safer to say that you support her? Now nation, then that your voting for Trump,
I would put a whole lot of money down. The Donald Trump does not give fifty one percent of the vote in two weeks. Ok, no, but I think aims making an interesting point. The thing is, you would want. Other data show that follows that, like, for example, why wouldn T republican senatorial candidates be running ahead of Trump lords? If you're gonna lie to pollsters and say that your voting for Biden and not for Trump, you are not obliged to lie in, say your voting for the Democrat in the race rather than the Republican or you know, were in the house, races or something like that. So there's no effect that that that suggests at, but instead the democratic, the Republicans are very harmonised. Is like in LA in North Carolina. The Senate race is kind of dead, even with the presidential race, and so I dont,
really, I honestly don't don't think it reads that way. I do think that one, the Amy Coney Baron nomination was good for democratically they raised a huge amount of money and its immediate awake. They raise her is a million dollars in the wake of of the of the vote,
The relation of the norm that that Mcconnell had established in twenty sixteen, so in that sense it was useful to them and in one other way you can say that everything is so much about Trump that it can be about nothing else. Maybe it can be about. These senators were active players at the current moment, but if there is no exogenous reason to vote against Barrett, you know if there's no Christine Blasi Ford in the Barrett it out going it bear it there's no way for anything to blot out Trump as the focus of everything, and you can't treat her like she's trump. They couldn't treat her like she would. They couldn't figure out how to talk to her about her now, maybe
if they hadn't done the bigoted anti catholic stuff in twenty seven team, when she was up for the appellate court, maybe if they'd let her alone, they could have that they could have surfaced Oliver later I dont know anyway. We think that a calling tissues and called the thing is that the no evidence of crabs on that the Democrats on the committee tread incredibly lightly. They went very light on the religious stuff because they thought that it was that they had learned from their example. Now, maybe it would have bet boomerang down them, but I'm saying that they didn't have an idiot. They didn't have a line of attack on her
we owe you watched you watched him more than I did they get enough. Has why that's not what I'm saying from this data is that suggest that people do make a distinction between Donald Trump and write anything else and events not see these scream court as an extension of the political process, which is what partisan see what I'm saying to unsafe, something slightly off, which is there's no way to get any traction on anything in October, with the presidential election coming on, and this idea that is the most important election of our lifetime. An hundred fifty million people are going to vote to distract people by focusing them on Amy Coney Barrett, like that was that was an they. I think they kind of implicitly figured that out that just as Biden once all the focus on Trump Democrats want all the focus on Trop. They don't want to start talking about other stuff which, by them
is why maybe they're making a mistake by going crazy over killing on right now to get their shifting focus away from Trump Tequila, not even though they're single Qanon likes Trump and Trump likes Qanon, whatever you know Biden's put a lid on for four days. Why is he done that right, til, the debate? Is he doing the bay prep? Yes? Could he do other stuff? Yes, why? Because he thinks they think that as long as Trump is making all the news, he is reinforcing that ten percent lead. That button has, I believe it was that we will thank you very much for listening. Gotta commentary magazine dot com for the material from these seventy fifth anniversary issue of commentary for aid, Christina. No, I'm jump on hordes keeps Campbell burning.
Transcript generated on 2020-11-04.