« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Second-Guessing the Chauvin Jury

2021-04-21 | 🔗
A jury of 12 peers listened to the evidence and rendered a verdict. Before the verdict, the jury's impartiality was questioned by the Left. After, it's being questioned by the Right. And what of the efforts to turn a shooting in Columbus, Ohio, into a new George Floyd case? And what of the vaccination numbers slowing way down? Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary magazine daily. Podcast today is Wednesday April twenty first, twenty twenty one. I am jump on words. The editor of Commentary magazine with me. Again remotely executive, editor, Abraham, all hydra. associate editor nor wrath when I know a job and back from our technical disaster that that that made it impossible for us to have her on the pod gas yesterday, Senorita Christine rows of high Christine agent.
So the dark, Derek verdict came back three guilty verdicts and I am I was ranting. yesterday about how the behaviour of Maxie Waters and Joe Biden and others You know I was a was in effect was a violation of the idea that the of eight centuries of common law that had people being judged by jury of their peers, who heard the evidence. Under certain circumstances and made and made a ruling that you know. If you assume you want the verdict that you want him, you don't get, it accepted the jury. The jury is somehow you know. That of the system of this was a terrible thing and I take. It
very important in the wake of the verdict and, frankly, some really kind of appalling rhetoric by people that I'm you know much more in. lay in sympathy with them. Then Maxie waters this we sat there, they they listen to the evidence they they went through it. It was there they have a man's life and its future in their hands and they were into a jury room and they came up with a unanimous verdict in three different cases. the idea that we should then presume that they were doing so because they were afraid or because they were afraid of the mob or because they, you know working social justice worse ever it is that you want to say, I think, that's really bad. I mean you're you're, basically defaming these twelve people, you have no idea
who they are, what they an end, and this is the process they they did, their. They did their civic obligation and, and from what we can tell beyond reasonable doubt. The prosecution made its case, and it was very clear if you followed look. We talked about it the week before that the defendant about a couple of days in the media, weren't tell you about it or the prosecution had about a couple of days. Let me word tell you about it. But clearly things turn round last week during the defences case. May, however, that there be there their central witness was bad, was not believable made a bunch of mistakes and they end in the
the prosecutor said you saw the video believe your own eyes and in out to believe that George Void wasn't killed by Derek shoving. You have to believe all sorts of things that are not the evidence and for which there is no forensic proof. The only thing I know you, it's nothing. It's not impugning the motives of the jury to take to heart. The admonition of Judge K held the presiding judge in this case, who said that specifically matching waters. Comments could represent the basis upon which appeals court could overturn this verdict. Diapers
in so far as it finds that the partial sequestration to which this jerry was was in animals and even its equestrian by the time matching waters made her comments, but it was when Joe Biden made his comments, but we don't know whether or not that that that's a construction was airtight enough for them not to have heard this admonition from the present the United States to do He wanted to do in a future court of decides that they were influenced prejudiced by these comments. It could very well overturn this verdict when I say impugning I'm tongue, but the system, not the jury and ITALY. What Judge K he'll said he has something that's variant. But I've been. There seems to be almost a presumption on the part of commentators on the right that that this case was decided in in error and unjustly, and maybe what we mean
to do is provide the benefit of the doubt to the jury. That sat. Listen to the case. That's what I would do. That's what you that's what we would wish others to do had the verdict come out as it not guilty verdict, yet that that's what I was going to say is that we would there be plenty of room to criticise the behaviour of what a lot of cities, including Minneapolis, were expected were preparing for had the verdict not Come down that way, an end. Look. We haven't appeals process for reason. If any of those concerns that you see some commentators making about the the dense and the case or about how the judge handled it, and I agree with no. I actually think this entire jury that they should have been sequestered throughout this process. There is this way too much. The temperature of this case was so high from the very beginning that it would have been very difficult for them not to be following something or get something that might have prejudice their decision making, but this is why we have an appeals process. He isn t.
entitled to an appeal. He should make one and then we'll see, but I, but I do. I I'm also decide by some of the idea that you know, because the George for it was it, was at that accuser, because he had a criminal history that doesn't matter. The evidence in this case is the only thing the story had in front of them, it was what they were asked to consider and they did in this. This is where they got, so you can disagree with some of the decisions about ever what was admitted into evidence by the judge. But again we have an appeals process for which he can raise those later. That's that's exactly right at all, I mean to say is that there seems to be a dynamic now. that a group of people are going to and by the way limits, but this way I am generally a believer that the this sum hunger to prosecute police officers for the confrontations they do that they get into with, with
is. It is it is, it is a terrible, terrible thing and that its it's it's it's of advancing and creeping hunger and that's gonna have all kinds of its unjust. We we. We arm and empower these people to protect us and they put themselves in harm's way every day for that purpose and are therefore provided with the right to self defence. That is actually goes up. It's a somewhat above beyond the kind of same rights that we all have and that is a very important thing, any start messing with that new start messing with just fundamental public safety. I do think that there is a kind of weird dynamic that has now set in, which is that there is a crime and so liberals and left us and black lives ladder. People want the verdict that they want and then, and then suddenly, because they want it. People on the other side who are gonna want, you know not guilty verdict. Well, let's end, but let's be clear. Black lives matter is deeply dishonest about how,
handles any of this information. I mean there, they lack lives matter, GCSE, still less people who were pointing guns at cops when they were killed, as you know, innocent victims of police violence thoroughly thoroughly dishonest when it comes to actually talking about the people who might have been treated with use of force. That was unjust, verses, those who are actively in the commission of a crime and threatening the lives of others. including police officers, and we I mean we're gonna talk about the story in Colombia, but this is this is where I think The movement itself, part of the reaction to it becomes extreme imperfect as the movement spend, were costly, told that this is a movement for I stress, and we should embrace this. They lie all the time they lie about the circumstances of these things. They do it to produce a narrative and to raise money, and it is not acceptable. We shouldn't, except that you could actually becoming a point raised
so, you know we ve seen that there are people like Maxine Waters, for example who seemed to almost want the the verdict to have come down in a way that they dont fine, just because they want the chaos in the streets, want to fight right. I'm very sorry to say that I get the sense from certain elements on the right. They also wanted that, because they wanted to be I want to say, nothing will satisfy the mob, which I think is usually true, more and more, they wanted to be able to say that they don't accept justice. They are there. They are tearing the city down. Here we go again look at the violence
They want to be able to comparatively justify January the siege of the capital January by saying that these are you think that one of the other point at newscasts her toward who would call the riots that would have ensued, mostly peaceful, and then they were deprived of that on the right look. This is this is a very important point. I have to confess outcome. Staggered yesterday, after the verdict and when I'm reading stuff this morning that the overwhelming impulse of the of the people who believe that this verdict was critically important in the history of world,
Civilization have greeted it with the with a very grudging enabling sense that it matters like well, it's a start, or it's only the beginning or don't let's justice it out you you want this, wasn't justice being done because systemic racism as president, we have that again, this incredible cognitive, dissonance right. It is just five years after a black president served eight years in the oval office. We have a black vice president stand there at the podium and further american people talking about systemic racism as the vice president, the United States. We have this idea somehow that there is this thing called systemic racism that is endangering black people's lives from cradle to grave. At the same time,
We have the leaders of the country increasingly has as Africa. If systemic racism were the threat that people thought it was, we would not have a black president. That is that. Is that, like rule number one you know in that sense it doesn't matter what happens. anybody on a street in others is a society that choosing who governs it and and and and then I won by the largest margin you know into in twenty years, As I said, this is a thought that I'm already actually teasing out for the blood this morning that he pulled directly out of my brain is that after this event, you have people at the present United Sates saying. Well, you know, systemic racism is a thing EL exists. Systemic racism is an extremely frustrating concept and problematic one, particularly in light of this verdict, has the virtue for activists are being sullen specific and so vague as to be a blanket indictment of a society
without indicting any individual or institution, therefore having very little push back from any individual institution that we defend its prerogatives. So it's it's a fun activists statement, but then you have people again Johns today, every last night saying all we want is for police officers to follow the law. Well, what is the law if it is not systemic? What are the remedies to this kind of abuses if they are not within the system? If there are police officers who are not prosecuted sufficient to appease the activists, it is the result of the law. And how do you change the law you do so within the acting within the system. The said the system is the remedy as much as it is the problem in their eyes, but only focus on the problems in our focus on the remedy. So to say that there is this systemic racism is vague and as an organizing eat, those as a principal, its valuable, politically it makes very little sense when you actually begin to think about it in this trial, so
very much undermines, I think, one of the central premises of the idea of systemic racism. Well, that's. I think why there was there was that there was some kind of weird disappointment that the verdict didn't didn't confirm the prior, that in a country like this, there is no justice for African Americans and that systemic racism will let you know I will let cops off no matter what. So that's not what happened here and an end that did not stir. Up people. Last yesterday afternoon from saying I'm, I'm I'm angry, I'm still angry. This isn't justice. So if that's not justice, what is justice, what Van Jones Centres is is is actually exactly right, which is
everybody in this country should obey the law police officers. Also, police officers are governed by the law and what the jury found was. The dark Chopin was guilty of second degree murder because in the heat was already doing something illegal in the way that he had stopped and was subduing George Floyd that he was already using excessive force that then, in the course of that use of excessive force, George Floyd died, so it wasn't. Murder, in the sense that it was you know, up, premeditated planned or anything like tat. It is that it is that he was already doing something he shouldn't have been doing. George Floyd died in the midst of it, and so that's where jury could look at that and say well yeah. They prove that beyond reasonable doubt. He was down on the ground for nine minutes.
Said he couldn't breathe and then he died, and you can say if you component of holes in the idea that that was done because of the knee on his. But, as you know, on his back, the defence can say the me wasn't Tobacco was on his shoulder, but then people look at the video and they looks looks at his back and they can say that was because of an enlarged hard because offence, no or because of exhaust fumes from the are, but there's no forensic evidence to support any of those allegations and eat. if there were that the duty of care and that a police officer has with a suspect in custody, he does not have the right to two too. You know he's not executions- or he is there to arrest the suspect and yes, suspects can sometimes become extremely unruly and violent. This the case here, though, with. I think this is where the video both had an outsize influence, which can be pernicious, but in this case, for the job it clearly wasn't it was you you don't look at what what did you
here as a reasonable person on a jury plus all the evidence we ve gathered, does If you hadn't large harder, he had had scarred lungs arena. That is not that that the officers duty and I do think they wait this nodded like the average Joe on the street, but as a police officer whose given great power to arrest and what not he did not follow the duty of care that should have in? That is enough to put him away- and I am- I am still very- I'm still astonish both about what you are talking about. Some of the commentary, you're, saying this isn't enough, but also the weird sort of effort by political leaders like Nancy Policy, to thank George Floyd for dying like this weird or hurt her later issued public statement. The written statement took this out, but when she gave her initial statement, her, and so the press basically is turned them into. This martyr was thanking him for pursuing racial justice. That's all so the wrong approach for this country to take with regard to the use of force by police officers and AIDS, its it baffling to me- the kind of searching for a new narrative now and I'm not sure
they're going to land on, but I hope that's not it. I mean that was that was a shilling, specific tsar thing to say, and I have to say that it is based on what I was seeing on Twitter. It was of the general opinion of people to go. why were you no matter where you were the political spectrum like she said what I knew it. I remind you that there is now this hey Geographic Biography, just out of Nancy policy by by M Susan page of USA, today, and you know it she's a power broaches s Ababa. She is a very heavy handed lame. Fisted. Leader, a lean or not. I mean she does say the right things she does not handle and comport herself well as a leader in the sense that it out, we always have it admits. Mcconnell is zero
So we know sphinxlike unease shows no motion or whatever Nancy policy sticks for foot and mouth all the time He is really bad at public messaging, and this was among the worst public messages. Thanking George, Boyd for his service in exposing rate in out I mean that is a really really horrifying thing. Do since what we are seeing here is an effort to get justice for joy for George Floyd's, unjust and illegitimate death right. That's I mean if you, if you believe in the guilty verdict that date George Willard should be alive today, not dead. And he didn't do it out and she should thank the jury for their service on pursuing justice. In this case, not him for dying, I mean he's, not Jesus Christ literally the way and look there there is that there's a there's the tendency
imposed black lives matter era. Any time someone is killed by police, they are instantly essay into Weena was peaceful and what not that's a lie in many many cases. That's just an outright lie, so the idea that left leading political leaders would buy into that in cater to that makes sense. You know for their base, but its it is kind of appalling when you see it in the way she presented yesterday yeah, it's also important because the whole point about pursuing case like this. You know whether, with a person with you have no public profile or whatever, who has this confrontation with places. recorded on an Iphone, and therefore you know that the world can change as well out of it, is precisely that he's, not a person who matters by which I mean it. Shouldn't have had until we should never have known that George fluid existed. He should have lead a life of complete at an end. he is only known to us because something awful and horrible was done to him
to the least as well as the most of us. Just justice is deserved. George Floyd may have little trouble life. You may have been taking a lot of sentinel. He may have been passing a counterfeit bill. He should not be dead now and he is an end and if it's necessary that the whole world stopped for a minute to take account of that fact, because of all sorts of other things, that is perfectly fine. That's what an unjust killing means they do there for the mind, their conscience. Everything that reels at the fact that a life is stolen? And that's all you need to say, or do it's not that he then has to become a martyr, but I advanced precisely. We don't want people to be martyr, that's the whole point, but that's a really important point that Christine is raising that a hen really thought of. Until now, Is that the way in which black lives matter
the mists and now their democratic advocates in Congress are treated. Treat people who were these are victims of a police violence, regardless of the circumstances as they they do treat them. They do become like a Bobby Sands figure. At an end, the way to talk about them is very much in the form of that kind of a martyred, rebellious activist against a system. They don't talk about the extenuating circumstances. They don't talk about the court procedure. there is they don't talk about the procedures that are implemented in the in the oven that led to their death the arrest related procedures. What have you that's the case of beyond the tailor, for example, who is herself a sainted figure whose picture the literal halos around her and on these murals, even though that the circumstances that led her death, tragic as they were, were explicable
ass, a sort of thing that a revolutionary movement engages in and to see it. The throng members of Congress is particularly disheartening. Look Bobby Sands was a was an activist, some would say. Terrorist who was thrown jelly was already he was committed to a cause. This was his cause I'd say you in very much different circumstances and for different electing a volley right now is dying of hunger say he is a. He is an activist trying to make himself a martyr for a cause Donna Taylor and George Floyd, an air coroner and other people they didn't sign up for anything they were under. They were living their lives under.
under different circumstances, and that does not make their lives any less valuable. That's the tricky part here is all of all. A verbal western ideas would say that George Floyd's life is no less valuable than Derek chauvinist. No matter the George Floyd was a drug addict and. Our children was? Was a police officer? Wait we do not. That is not how we evaluate worth in our society by we are based on material circumstances. Are how well you ve done in life. You know what mistakes who may or may not have made. Ultimately, God may those determinations and it is beyond us to make those determinations but
There is now an implicit idea. The whole point, the reason that police are given latitude in these cases and have been for for so long, is that they chose and we empower they ve chosen to be people who put their lives on the wine for everybody else as a kind of symbolic army, and they are there to confront people who do wrong. Do who you know do wrong and and and deal with them for the rest of us, and they are therefore at vastly greater risk than the rest of us are are in such circumstances were split. Second, decisions have to be made and if you think that you can slow it down, that's where juries are told put yourself in the cop shoes, and in this case I think the defence made a valiant effort to try to get people to look at everything. From the perspective.
Derek Chauvelin and say that your career merited were dark, Chauvelin behaved in a proper manner and that and the jury didn't in the end, the jury, the the speed with which web with which the jury came back suggests that they did not come anywhere near they even raising the possibility in the minds of Euro four or five of them that there was reasonable doubt he is dead, there's another. I think that's actually write like they didn't take. They couldn't put themselves in issues after seeing the evidence that the prosecution presented, I will say the other part of the instant martyrdom narrative. That concerns me, because I think it has future implicate. Inter interactions with law enforcement particular for people of color is the idea that the cops her out hunting people of color. You see this in the act of a is all the time. It's like We can't even sleep at our in our beds. You know innocently, we can go for a walk on the street. The cops are hunting us because we are black that isn't. It
dreamily, dangerous narrative to be promoting first of all its untrue. Second of all, it does lead to situations where, if actually grow up, believing that a cop? It approaches you about something: you're, not equally hood of running resisting doing all of the things that actually enter getting people killed, higher, and I I really worry about that in terms of how we both how we train officers and the message we are sending children in particular, if your teaching children be fearful and assume that the cap is a murderer. If you happen to have dark skin your teaching, a message is actually going to be more like, The harm people of color not less and it is it is not getting giving the benefit of the doubt to officer and I see it all the time in eleven I live in DC, multiracial city. I see this message among parents, I see it in schools, I it's extremely toxic and it's a narrative that Bennett it's the most radical extreme activists and harms the people. It is you who most need protection from law enforcement, and
I don't see that getting any better, but I do think are officer should be trained. with that in mind, when it comes to, fleeing and whatnot and with a lot of the officer involve shootings over the past year. So have involves suspects fleeing or suspects resisting and then we should, we should talk about that cuz. We have a case of that. That's you know already created controversy, just you know, fourteen hours or six and one slash two tarat happen, but before you know we were in the podcast studio yesterday and for the first time in fourteen months, no avian and an eye- and I was not in my ex chair because my pictures of home- and I missed it- that x, chair with its patented dynamic, variable lumbar support, which offers unbelievable support to my lower back and its new ex h empty technology which provides heat.
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shove, it George Floyd, but you know somewhere else just elsewhere in the midwest they'll, be a terrible thing happening, so the police in in Columbus Ohio have released the body. Can footage of this a shooting and dumb? you would really have to be a very determined person, believing that No one should ever do anything to anyone else. To think that this does not totally that this was not a totally justified, though horrifying. We tragic event right, so the video shop,
Are the teenage girl has a knife she's chasing another girl outside a house on the and the girl who was being chased falls down in front the cop, the the officer screams at suspect to get down and then the girl turns and I another one who is on the hood of a car. You can then see the suspect take what seems very clearly a knife in her hand, pull it back as if she is just about to strike, and then the police officer shoots. Thus the police officer.
save the girl who was on the car from being stabbed by the girl with the knife, which should have been the headline right. It's a life he's right, her life, yes, and can I I have to do small Rance, because these were already infesting social media with their ridiculous, he should have used to taser. He should have disarmed her without his gun. Ok, so I they train and knife disarming techniques. I act I trained in those, I know how they work. There is no hurry. We need to explain them. Hundreds looks blame for five It's me it's another Christine as a black belt, but this diversity is a blackmail that one of her one of your your field is the key yes, but we do weapons were yes, that's all so so please enlighten us with your extreme exports I don't even have extra about. I have moderate expertise, but the point is that people forget how quickly these things happen and a knife in some
his hand directed at someone's body, can inflict fatal damage in a split second, and that is good. We want this video shows, I might also say, she's, been called a childish. She was a teenager. She was legally a child she's pretty large, like she look she's she's adults eyes. So the idea that this was like us small child, you know wielding a tiny, switchblade or something she had. Its knife. She was obviously pretty powerful another thing with contacts. We are hearing instantly the daily beast which we should, which should just be called proper and, at this point, ran with the story that was completely unsurpassed talking to the end of this girl who had supposedly, all these details from someone named other source. This was a child who was in child protective services. Custody she'd been removed from her home. The idea that the Ellie bees reporter would go to a member of that family from whose family this child had been removed for circumstances. We don't know and take them their word, is gospels ridiculous. This woman claimed oh shit. Old nine when one which we still do, who did the name among oh shit,
the knife, the cop shudder anyway, they ran with story, and this narrative, it was believed by a lot of people before the body came, footage came out and they're not really correcting that narrative another. The body came. Footage is out, that is, that is misinformation if I've ever heard it, and if twitter and Facebook are so concerned about the spread of misinformation or disinformation They ought to take that step down or slot their warning labels on it or whatever they do to a lot of people who spread this kind of stuff. It's danger is that that kind of misinformation spreading is bad, so I would say this unit this cop did exactly what he he should have done to save that girls, life rigour I must who started the fight. If you come at someone with a knife, someone on armed with a knife with the intent to kill you, There is really no other option for law enforcement set these deadly force. I mean There is another way to look at all these videos that are emerging day after day,
other, then I'll. Look at these terrible cops and it is, and it certainly first to make its work are all these people menacing their neighborhoods what is going on? Why wire people wielding knives wire, liar kids, running with guns, resist? arrest out on. A gun warrants isn't the head avert fur for that the left listed to talk about dance, core issues, Why are we? Why are we never now talking about the quartet's systemic? That's the family, where its parents right, but we're just aware of all these incidences that are happening all over the country. In a country of three hundred million through have thirty million people. Is it such a plague or
just simply aware of what would otherwise have just made a police blotter a generation ago or in a local paper. We never really give it its thereof. It wasn't. Even Waste water you ever go have already met mathematically. It's it's! It's it's as much as of a plague as the as the police response at me, because we must decide whether they want or say slay. The argument against the kind of new big witty of this kind of information that we should probably not be able to access, because the human brain simply can't process that we have this perception that the towns, where is on fire, We need to do something about it. What we did is that, whereas others eleven hundred miles away and doesn't, would never that's what's important, that's right it that twitter makes the world the town square and, and and these thence appear to people as though they are happening in their backyard and geography matters. You know with. It does actually matter that your nowhere near me
with this one thing happens in Ferguson Missouri, and then you presume that every that, if it can happen, there happen anywhere, which is a perfectly stand a bull misunderstanding. I want to talk about another perfectly understandable misunderstanding. I'd say this. I think this is probably the tenth or fifteen time gonna give this little spiel about officer, involved, shootings and the training of Leave police officers in the in the in the use of of of deadly force There is an idea, broad, largely created by popular culture, that people are vastly more marksman like with weaponry than they are in fact, that sharpshooters are a tiny percentage of the population of
tutors hair, heavily and very seriously trained as sharpshooters and the world of westerns and stuff like that were James COBRA, the magnificent seven can shoot a gun out of some of these handed a hundred paces. That's fiction, that's not real. Nobody can do that almost every, maybe some other like trick. You know, Annie Oakley could do it in the Buffalo bill, wild less show but trick. Shooting is not what people learn. Or are capable of or do what they are trained to do is to minimize collateral damage minimizing collapse
will damage when you were talking about pulling a weapon and in discharging a gun involves aiming the bullets. Argo aiming the gun at the torso of the target, because that is the largest part of the of the target that you are aiming at and because, if you hit that it is, much less likely if you ain't there, but you will miss and the bullet will go awry and will hit somebody else, particularly in an urban set it where you know, streets are full of people and so least in New York, when they train them they are trained as by the where people in the military trained to shoot at the torso
just because it so you can imagine was glad energy, because you're gonna miss aiming for anything other than central ass ripe, and if you miss there is a vastly increased likelihood that that bullet could go hit. Somebody else can ricochet korean whatever. So my point is that this there is this idea that police have in their we'll box or their toolbox. Another will box a technique by which they can disable people magically without causing further damage. Now there are people who can do this right. There is a conflict. There are people office will work geniuses of conflict, the escalation, and there is some training in
fact and, for example, in New York, another story told over the last fifty years after the woodwork really badly scandals in New York of the early seventys, the training of New York City police became very key element of the of the cities. You know at the way in which people become cops, which used to be justice or patronage system and an even as crime as do all the stuff has gone on. Police are vastly more or less likely to pull their weapons and in certain situations they are vastly less likely to discharge their
guns in the course of your target, the largest city in the country, double the size with a very low crime, rape or just because the rate is low, doesn't mean the number of crimes is any lower. You know, I mean there's a lot of crimes they're, just not. You know their again, it's a percentage thing, but the cops are just really well trained and they now they ve been well trained for two generations and again I have no. I would not question what happened in Columbus, Ohio at all in any way, shape or form. It looks to me like someone's life was saved, not that someone's life was tail and the way tat. The way to test that among the kind of left, leaning activists, media class is to ask them if this had been a white girl attacking a black girl with a knife with the headline have been different, If the wider was shot by the cop while menacing the life of the black girl up against the car, would the headline of indifferent- and I think we all know the answer to that- and that's the problem here like how we interpret this stuff through the lens of a kind of racial just
this activist lends its is becoming dangerous for the ordinary people who want to just kind I understand the situation in the misinformation is spreading before the countervailing facts can be even revealed, and so now you have these police departments and sit rushing to release bardic employees. It's happened a couple times here in DC. Do you know why? Because the minute there's an officer involves shooting a mob forms, an end then stay he's until they here what's going on in its that, cannot be our new normal because that's that's not helpful to the people. Are calling for justice, and it's certainly not good for law enforcement relationship with those communities. Look, let me ask you guys a question: okay, we're having we're discussing very stressful issues. Dude. Sometimes it like helps to chew gum right when you're straight when you're stressed, and he like it relieves. It helps. If I make sure if you chew gum, maybe you don't eat, isn't it? We won't like go to the fridge to look for something to pop in your mouth, cuz you're stressed, and it also freshen
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and the tooth brush befell the flaws and more in the oral care I'll at your local walmart. Ok, what well, sir, I have had a very thing, Instagram vaccination numbers Sure why not good? You know we got you know it's not good right, we're not sure white slackened, and we have two different things where these reports of various counties Way County in North Carolina where others vaccine going going begging. We have a drop in them
Bruce right from four and a half million last week to like three million are little less than three million yesterday or the day before yesterday doses and arms sector, where that might be because of the of the continuous, a rolling fall out from the cancellation of the Johnson Johnson Vaccines and the fact that people had to reschedule and all that might might have played a role. But so are we have anything cheerful, say about this? Now, ok, I mean well now no I mean we ve- been observing this for a while. We ve been tie tat. We ve been in the leading edge of this issue for a long time, because the polling, while I was better around vaccine hesitancy, the numbers. The number of people showing up at sites was getting worse and people who substituted pulling information for for a macro picture of the of the vaccination environment.
We're deluding themselves are now that their beginning to face up to it, have stories and The story in the New York Times out popping is now a national story, saying This is now gonna, be a hand to hand street fight like than where work have delayed really framing it like a counter insurgency operation, where we're going building two billion clearing out rooms that is the wrong way to think about this. These people are not insert. Hence this. These are not an adversary to be subdued. I'm with the government, I'm here with a shot, is even worse that I'm, the government I'm here to help me literally even the framing of it, makes them, creates the impression that there, the bad guy, and that something needs to be done about this. people, and all even saying forever is that you just need to make it attractive for To do this there there utterly unable to create the impression in
mine that there's something noble about appealing to self interest. Well, we know, from other mean a pre covered. We know from Anti Baxter's that there are actually technique that are effective in persuading people. Usually it's with the doctor. A doctor thing down. In listening to the concerns of an anti back sir, and then talking them through showing them some of the evidence and you can actually persuade people out of this anti scientific view. But yes, I told there was no other than the messaging right. Now is basically either your your horrible or you are an insurgent and we're gonna come to get you to make sure you do this and on the other hand, they look the their options and think why didn't want to do this. Nothing has changed. Nothing is change right when nothing's going to change for me. If I get a vaccine either because they live in an area that already open and they figure there at lower risk. I think that's a lot of it. To be honest, if you live in a state that open and people are, are more as much in a dick,
look round ago. Why do I need it? Everything seems fine, must kids are back in school, businesses are open and then you have the people who are just never gonna, Wanna Trust, a vaccine and those are the ones who can be persuaded other. We heard this Christine, but I submitted to us on the website yesterday that there is scientific rationale for maintaining a mask mandate on people who have the vaccine Zachary you're, nothing, stopping private enterprise. I'll government doesn't do this, but there's nothing stopping private enterprise from us to produce the quota go back passport already having your wallet CDC card that says, you got it to say you don't have to wear a mask where the other people do that's literally all you would have to do, and every single person right now who is hesitant about this vaccine when rationalize the their way around it. Until the point that we have achieved, hurt immunity and there and their their hesitancy, no longer matters We are. We are very much now dependent on the numbers for Israel and the UK on how
We are going to measure when we achieve heard immunity that the bay report out of Israel suggests that were a little a little over sixty percent effectively has brought her immunity the best evidence we have is that it's around sixty percent and that's not sixty percent, fully vaccinated either Israel's basically through covered. it is achieved. Her immunity and other questions question is whether we are going to apply that site standard to the United States, because I I just don't know that wherever gonna get to a number of much better than that, I mean You know unless there is a change, in the mindset, and this now doesn't even go to spit cause. I'm Sally like I'm saying. Maybe we can use these real number to help us, so we can declare victory and move on. I think actually, if the number suggested three percent as her immunity, that's what we should go with it.
this also apparently are. The UK has apparently broken the back of covered and add that with the british variant and everything which is an important factor in important detail, so You know if, if, if Fauci at all continue to hover in the seven thousand two hundred and eighty category, we are in for a very difficult time here and I just think people need to understand that that's going to be the case I mean, if we can get to, sand and and the evidence from Israel UK is accurate, then the numbers will drop of themselves and of it. You know it in a sense. It won't matter where fouch he sat with that right. While the numbers are what matter. So with other words, we get a were at work where it fifty one and fifty two percent now of the adult population of
the United States so where, where where we are always away politically, with the slow down in the vaccination numbers were ways away from getting to sixty percent? And that's the question like have we now have we hit Small, but where it's gotta be three months to get another ten percent of the population backs well and in and the numbers do matter in the sense that the CDC recommendations and guidance are being used by it, like local school districts, for example, to continue keeping things hybrid or locked down to keep kids out a school these numbers actually matter, depending on how local political leaders decide to use them apply then to the growth social institutions at a lot of people want to see reopening, but won't so I do think I think you're right that if we, if we just look at death rates and how the most recent case reason there are steadily declining. You can make that argument, but as long as that CDC guides look, it took him forever. From six feet to three feet in schools and
Those are still following the six foot role, so I feel like there's a trickle down effect in terms of how people put these policies into place and see them as more like rules that can be broken versus guidance. That can be you no kind of taken on board, but not read as law. And I know just from the school experience. I won't borer listeners with more vibrant on that, but from the school experience it real He does matter what the CDC says and their way behind the curve on some of the the science and some of the examples from overseas and particular road, while looking Did you see, as a government agency government agencies have and outsize effect on politics, on policy on on everything that you know and is involved in?
in american life and in the american economy and, of course, to understand all that. You want to go to our friends at the bottom group that by coastal financial management and services, firm with twenty eight people in California, in New York, in particular, led by David Bonds and two point: eight billion dollars under management and to Van task internet publications. The d see today that calm daily during the week, Andy and Dividend CAFE that come issued on Fridays. For the weekend, David analyzes in DC to Edna COM the way the markets have gone that that day and what what sort of issues are are dominating the discussion on how feds actions the federal Through its actions, corona, all of that are affecting the investment atmosphere, and then indignant cafe I come. He gets a deeper into policy and and the interplay of
meant interference with the economy and the economy is good working order. So that's the DC to data come dividend. Cafe that come from the bonds and group, your antidote to the intellectual, spaghetti of the financial services and management industry. So I am I'm just feeling this varies weird sense that that that that thing that the Arab Grand talks about them in your times on Monday? This languishing that that, at a time when we should be feeling as though we're coming out of this. We are of dipping into some weird languish and that and that I veer like no other. Actually, those today is like you know. They have today have to sweeten the pot and they have to punish you. How so I give to sweep the part to get people to say it's gonna be
to be vaccinated. On the other hand, you gotta make it better, for people were vaccinated, said the unbox they would understand. If they are, they are sought there. they're they're out there losing out on on a return to to ordinary life. Were you know whatever it is that they then my one do? Are those contradict three or today, and so it all now I will describe it as a punishment. This is entirely purely voluntary on everybody's part, purely voluntary, if you, as a private institution, decide to implement such me letters I suggest purely voluntary on your part, to participate to patronize as institutions to get back to me. If you do, purely voluntary in your part, do not participate in those institutions. What I oppose our government mandates on any this public sector mandates all that road constitute something punitive none it is either got pretty you up, I mean I'm sorry to say that I think you know given where we're add, culturally, with with
Polarization and the paranoia on every single issue were private businesses to start implementing kind of policy. We would now see a whole new breed of videos of confrontations and fights. And activism all all around people being prohibited services and resisting- and I love you absolutely wood and it would be just as representative as episodes of violence in the streets in police confrontations. that will be presented as a pandemic on cable news, but these would be I selected incidents that would be. You know that the institutions in our country that thrive on this kind of projecting this kind of paranoid would stick a clan to it and make it seem as though it was in Denmark when it probably isn't, and there is one thing that we, we'll have to rubber minds around his there's. Gonna be a segment of the population, are pre significant segment that we'll never get vaccinated ever no matter wages. They will never,
ever ever ever get backs needed. And if your threshold is the in a hundred per cent of the adult population in this country, and probably pretty soon, is gonna, be kids to then you're going to fail. You're going to establish a threshold that you cannot me so we need to do is create some sort of appeal. romantic approach to getting a significant amount. The population vaccinated that allows for dissenters, because they're gonna exist what can allow for it. That's where the science does actually come in and where we we need to trust. The science of the question is whether we're going to trust the science when it reveals that sixty two percent is sufficient to clear. Her Kennedy because you're still not getting thirty eight percent of the population vaccinated, and that means that it won't die out and then it will be around and that there will still be you know: increased levels of death from corona virus. They could otherwise be prevented by the vaccine and then
you're gonna be a weird situation where, where we we we ve beaten, but it has gone away in a way that it could release almost systematically go way. Are the public health authorities? Gonna say that's fine words like you're, not at risk your documents transmitted, you're, not gonna, get it particularly if you're gonna get a boost then six months from Pfizer, whatever go about your life, everything else, he's gonna go on or they going to say that, even though the death toll is down, all that is down that we need to keep the pressure on, but in the end they data to experience for people. So in the UK, for example, another their reaching, you heard immunity. They ve already announced that beginning in May upper school schoolchildren, have to wear, masks and school anymore. So to the daily experience of having to constantly monitor, for the pandemic ceases to exist. For those kids, but it's extremely healthy for them. An extremely good for
society, because the longer and more often people are able to return to some sort of semblance of normalcy them. or trust and an awareness they will have actually think of the size, and this is why we see this with the school reopening the more we reopen schools and people come back to school safely. The more parents trust in their ability to do that increases. So there's kind of a circular logic to the way we're going to buy a lot of these public health decisions, which is that were being hyper, hyper cautious, which in fact feeds into the fire you're an anxiety in and suspicion, people have about ever being able to return to normal. Our factories will guide guideline for opening things up in so far ass. We can even imagine him saying that, which is kind heart the picture from these ten thousand this is per day, would change like kind of reasonable on its face costs. Ten thousands are pretty high number, but it's not inconceivable that you can have
I heard immunity threshold and still have ten thousand cases of this virus per day, and we had thousand breakthrough cases over the new in the three one hundred and thirty million people have gotten the vaccine. Now, when I'm on a but it happens- and there will be a significant population that is still vulnerable to this disease, which will probably constitute more than ten thousand people at least of vulnerable population, where and people per day. They could get this disease. The metric should be, and always open. Hospitalizations and deaths which in declining dramatically declining so but until we get to that that point again, parity magically than the there won't be any listening at the sort of thing when the public health side of things and it's gonna be up the politicians to say go screw, which is exactly what Britain Whitworth dead. I mean she's she's not opposed to implementing some more restrictions, which I think are kind of ridiculous did having to Europe
where mass, for example, which is now mandated in Michigan, which I think makes very little sense, but nevertheless, she's not locking things down, which is what the public health community has told her. She needs to do again and that's exactly what up? What am up? Elected officials do measure all the information that they have taken to account all the variables, including social effects, psychological effects, economic effects- God forbid make a determined decision that that takes into account all these competing valid interests. Some which to win out over others is not always gonna, be public health and my cynical to think that part of the reason she made. That decision, though, is that she got busted plentiful I mean I haven't afterward tat was ass. It did, but you can. You know, anyway, I just think, where're. You know what we need to. We needs it. We need to trust the science is what I'm saying trust
science, and I really mean that unironically. That's. The question is whether whether our our our public health overlords are going to trust the science which they haven't been doing a really good job of for the most part over the course of the last year the same anyway, thanks for listening, you guys will react tomorrow for eight Christina now I'm jump, adwords, kids.
Transcript generated on 2021-07-26.