« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Surges and Purges

2021-07-12 | 🔗
Noah Rothman is back after a week away from the podcast to offer his two cents on the Delta variant surge and how it's affecting conservative media and Republican politics. We also discuss the revolt in Cuba and why it's important to support democratic rebellions abroad... and Black Widow. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today's when they joy twelve twenty twenty one. I am jump onwards, the editor of Common, Terry magazine returning after week away associate. There are no Rossman high on our agenda, executive, editor agreement here, as ever higher hygiene and senior
AIR Christie Rosen, who will be gone for most of the weak, but is here today high Christine? I can so disheartening, coveted numbers coming back, semi disheartening. That disarming fact is that we are having a surge in cases. It's not like a surge like anything before the surges before we're talking about doubling of numbers from around ten thousand to around twenty thousand or a little higher, but none the less. The delta variant is biting The reason it's only semi disheartening is that the death toll remains very low emulates were still you now around two hundred, which I don't want to sound bloodless, but is very low and and remains sort of like in the cap.
Category of a bad flew if it if it remains at this number. The fear, of course, is that it will remain at this number that the infections will beget new infections and that just mute At the same time, this the death rate will will rise, and that will of course, start pudding. Interesting, cross pressures politically on from those who believe that we are losing restrictions to quickly and will want to reassure you, don't wanna reimpose them ah to protect everybody, particularly when where's schooling and other things that are coming up in a couple of months after the summer, you now begins to decline and end happen. However, this is one case in which I think the culture war for those but who are. You know irritated beyond belief at the fact that the Un
Action rate is rising, of course, in the almost entirely among those who run vaccinated that that the rotation that they won't get vaccinated, though that rates arising in this is gonna, impose new hardships on us as people who did get vaccinated and want everything. fully reopen and want to continue to live in our lives as normally as possible that the culture or is now gonna turn in our favour, because the on vaccination are now and vaccinated by choice and lesters unless their children under twelve and Basically, the cultural leaders of the United States, this liberal cultural leaders who have made voucher and quality and all these people heroes, are
We as angry, if not angrier than we are with the on vaccinated, to the extent that the vaccinated are in red, stay. and moral, and all of that, and so on. ain't gonna want to shut their lives down to help trumpery people. I say no, I think I don't know, I don't know, that's riddle, ok was the logic for stated logic, binder Cuomo for shutting down restaurants. It wasn't that these were vectors of transmission. It was that this was all we could do it's all we can do and we have to do something already. Public health officials like Anthony Patchy and others say that mass mandates in the winter time, for example, are great, are good. covered her now, you just have to do it for the good of not a wholesome society that we have to build together on a new public health regime. This is sort of thing that I can see making and come back and North eastern states not as well
and not, as you know, in a punitive response to their populations, but as a preventative response to the populations of red states. Ok, well that so good play with my sister, although a little bit like seriously is the New York are the other or that are the calmness of the New York Times or places like that. That believe that Trump voters and the Republican Party and all are you now represent a clear and present danger towards democracy and are irresponsible and can cavalier in all this Are they going to want to restrict their own behaviour because of them, but they'll? Never they'll, never restrict their own behaviour. We saw that you know for the past year and a half it's not about that. They they will continue to do what they want to do. You're, tired by politicians here, I'm now with a birthday party study. There is.
fascinating study recently about how birthday parties were intended to be events where people was the virus in that there really was no distinction between people who Hooper claim to everybody they wore mass all the time and socially distance and the way that the number of people who are also celebrating birthday parties privately in their own people outside of their Viti above all group, there's something I think the other is very much a constituency for the kind of thing Noah's talk: among the people of the North EAST states, when you see whenever on Twitter, any democratic governor talks about announces that at that that the recent infection rates, if there is ever an attack or hospitalizations over them, all the comments below do something you ve got why this is why we open we open too soon you open too soon, There are still people clamouring for us to go back to where we were
as now that now they have something to two to Economic Kayser. But it's gonna be interesting in the fall as John is you alluded to about schools, because the CDC just this past week came out with recommendations that were quite firm in saying schools should be reopened, even if you can't keep distancing and if your vaccinated The teacher or a high school or middle school students that fully back said he shouldn't even have to wear a mask indoors. It was very error that virtual learning with a disaster and that an impersonal moaning was I already, even if all the different mitigation efforts couldn't be mad, so that's gonna that that's that's. The message of the appeal to science folks are gonna have to contend with if they do want it back at noon and go back into more lockdown Mirza before ok. Well, so here's the other question we're talking about states where the covered rate was low.
a period for most of the pandemic, and now it's going up. Does this mean that the fact that people resisted vaccination or thought that this was an a because they didn't really see it in their own communities and I'm going to see it in their own communities and change their tunes and quietly go get vaccinated. Just you know as a prophylactic measure, because their seeing the people are sick of hearing the people are sick or people in their church got sick or whatever that that's actually change, their behaviour, even if I dont think it'll change their behaviour in the sense that there will be a kind of public reckoning with you know, sing all I guess we were wrong. We need to get vaccinated soon. It'll, just still just go to the cvs, her go to the local. Where were you can get your vaccination? Get it done and not not make no big deal about it, because they don't we
offend there on vaccinated or anti backs neighbour serb stuff, like that it is very possible- and I hope that's not a wish following the thought- and yet We think the outlines of an argument that I think is gonna. If the status quo prevails into twenty twenty three is going to define. The republican Party is primary race for President's in twenty twenty four in obtaining a little bit about this today, which began with Christian South Korea Governor, who issued availed veiled, shot across the bows of gun around his Anderson in Florida, alleging essentially that he's been this anti lockdown champion. it wants to revise history too. glued his support for lockdown, which, the way only amounted to providing deference to local officials to do what they wanted to do that she said is gonna beyond the pale, because I didn't supported,
That's whatsoever now, there's a lot of good substantive arguments against this sort of line that she's trying to take, most of which are Florida had far better outcomes, economic and human toll during the pandemic than South Dakota get. But if the outline among in this debate biologically on the right is that large towns, in whatever form they took, were worse than the disease. It means the right is willing to accept the lot of death in exchange for limiting economic activity freedom, and run? The scientist could lose that argument. I'm all demonstrates that everybody is already doing what they didn't. Twenty sixteen and taking shots at everybody else who was in tromp, which has its own conundrum, their friends smells like along the long down lines. The argument is, is it? Is that the contours of this argument or forming around the idea that absolutism in opposition to lockdown, nor whenever the conditions
tat, it is the position we take full there's also that absolutism among some of the stars of right wing media- I mean Tucker Karlsson, more in Rome, on Fox NEWS kind of really really Poohpooh the idea that vaccination is safe country, bringing up that there is either these vague dangers of vaccination, and I should note now Admitting themselves whether or not they themselves have been vaccinated while spreading fear about vaccination side effect, so that new times did it typical sort of Anti Fox NEWS hippies on the anomaly cover the newspaper this morning, but there's there's real concern to behind. If John, if you're, right that you know, maybe people will just go quietly vaccinated if, if their main new sources is constantly raising doubts in their minds about the safety of the vaccine, that may not be quite as possible not that people are stupid, cheapen listen to everything, Tucker also more inroads, but there is a kind of background noise level effect to some of this discussion on Fox I am sorry to say. I am inclined to think that it's not going to change many minds, because I think
The way things are, if evidence were that, pursue we wouldn't be where we are already, I think every twisted earn in this story can somehow be shaped into your political argument. So if there are some people see arise in cases of apathy. If the idea but you see rising cases. Their argument is Why is this a you'd? You told us that we have this thing beaten, you eve. I thought we had. You know access of of fifty percent of the population having a shot. and now and now this is still on the rise. So will you you all that vaccinated for nothing? I mean that that is the problem. It is very hard to say Through a lot of this stuff rationally, because though there are, there are two possible lines of argument, one of which is.
Coal is very dangerous, killed a lot of people you get vaccinated there wee. We we the achieve heard, immunity to the extent that we can. We try to out race. the variants, so they don't lose the vaccine and then work were home, free and, and we had this terrible period the Perry can be over and the other is that what happened? didn't really happen that doesn't as bad that a lot of deaths have been imputed to cover that were uncovered. These are that these are the theories that of vaccinations are. our untested and could have these terrible? I am legend like side effects where you know in the movie well Smith begins with everybody there being a new vaccination, for cancer and everybody gets it and then everybody is turned into his own flesh eating zombie. Three
three years later, ten years later or something like that, which seems to be the logic of the anti vaxxer, is we don't know what the consequences are going to be? So I don't? I don't want to take it. So you either say a it wasn't as bad as we think and be the treatment for that which wasn't as bad as we think will be worse than the disease, and I guess you can believe that it seems like a very I just keep thinking this. It just seems like a very weird thing, to create a political difference about accept that people were justifiably offended by the way people talked about.
republican States during Covin, so everybody got their back up and gonna run and, despite Christina now, basically centres, the liberal I understand this is a liberal prozac, Sir Dino Andrew Cuomo Wanna be. The whole point was that Rhonda Santas was the villain of of of of covered, because people were allowed to go to the beaches and Florida. And ah, I think, no is right that you know we have a long way to go, but before people start running for that's two years until the summer of two thousand and three Theoretically they'll be a lot of other issues that arise before her after covered that people are going to have to deal with. But You know. I don't even know where to go with with this. I dont know. How had to have a conversation about this except to say
I understand why conservatives are offended and irritated and end don't like Fouche indulge the heavy hand of government. I don't like the idea that governors took on these emergency powers, and did you now fear right? You know what the unconstitutional things in some ways that went beyond the scope of what governments Do all of that is something that I accept, and I've been saying since we started this daily podcast But there is a disease out there. This is more than six hundred thousand deaths have been imputed to it and, as I keep thinking when we went back to when this all started back in March, two thousand and twenty Are nightmare number the real nightmare number was two hundred thousand. That was the nightmare. Like I know. I know there was the two million number that scared Trump and got him to agree to the two weeks of you have two weeks to bend the curve thing back in March or April, a work whenever that was but but
four thousand was like, oh, my god like this too, and we had a even if you think that the Colbert numbers are wildly overstated we headed and surpassed it, and yet now we're pretending or a lot of people are pretending that it. happen, while in it it absorbent, Christina can just take a seat because She is a state with fewer than a million people fairly homogenous rural population dissenters, physical A very good and very different statement, has twenty one million people. So I do Can it be bickering and in fighting, is to be expected, but it's also she has as its a fair amount of hubris for her to say that nice, it is someone who actually admired her at points during the pandemic for the way she pushed back
a little bit in promoting freedom and what not an and rationality. It's kind of disappointing to see this happening now, but really up. There's a lumber element to the political aspect of this and that that will be interested to see other place out and that's what the by demonstration does in response to rising numbers. It is through darkly. tragically comic that the Bush administration set up July. Fourth, as this sort of big day when we would sort have this thing beaten, you know, based on you x x, four months of his leadership and then by July. Fourth, we which we would be truly be independent of the virus and that's kind of actually when things numbers started rising again. The officially and you know, Biden has kind of reversed somewhat course. His initial.
masks everywhere the CDC Eugene its guidance about bad that those were vaccinated indoors, then just barely gotten out the door on there on that new path. Now, what are they gonna say? I'm sort of some evidence and to support Johns point there, because I think I was back in which may be able, when there was this big spike in Michigan right and that by then Ministration the CDC Cdc director Anthony vouches, the waiters itself, but a ton of pressure on Gretchen women to reimpose locked out, and she very publicly an courageously. My view resisted that pressure and it was the right thing to do because virus receded, based on the mitigation measures that were already in place so proved to be the right, though the right tactic, and perhaps that's what happens again and perhaps we see blue state government resisted because economic told worsen,
until the happy. But you know I don't think I've ever houses had to have seen that fight. If the polity wasn't missions but saying he works for California is there. We know that the liberal mines is much more amenable to these kind of measures. Then a more conservative, more whirl even Americans pretty much a blue stated still. You know it's about. It is about us. Well, I guess it's New Jersey has, but nevertheless you know you can see. I cannot He would see that enough in a place with such a heavy democratic constituency and a democratic governor, I look I mean you know. One of the things it irritates me is that we talk this way were very ambiguous about this, and then we get these email saying you you support, locked out and you're a monster in Vienna lockdown. You know, don't start with me like everybody. I know people in my family, all of that people suffered very greatly during locked. Down. Teenagers,
like the social isolation that was caused by all of this, was a nightmare for a lot of us, and I you now, and so I think we were very soon the goal of a lot of this. An empire probably so, and the last thing anybody wants is down. Which is why the idea that you can simultaneously say that lockdown is dangerous and threatening an awful firm for Americans and that the people who resist doing the one thing that we know without any question can prevent any one from arguing that we need to lock down again. That is noble to resist the implications of the liberal media that you should we're, not the implications, but that the demands and lived there you should get vaccinated if you hate locked downs.
tell everybody you know to get vaccinated like that. That is, that is in was an instrumental matter or as a simple policy matter. That is the only way that we can make sure this doesn't happen to us again, but we are projecting out, I mean case rates on a straight line, projection which are always inherently fallacious, rainy, buddy. Whoever comes out in favour of a lockdown based on our current case rates. Much less hospitalization in death rates is a lunatic and should be treated as though they were a lunatic. We're talking about the idea that this this pace continues into this month into next month and in September, and we start tens of thousands of cases per day which were not what we have tens of thousands of kilometres there. Now you know you ve, no, no were nevertheless ie or a hundred I mean the whole.
we hear is but again I want to get back to this point, which is that you know like New York State, which was the worst hit. Obviously I think between people have had covered and people been vaccine from covered. We are approaching heard immunity numbers in New York state. I think it would be very hard for Andrew Cuomo to re lockdown based on that. Not to mention is on political future and all of that, but this is where the rubber meets the road enter singly, which is that a lot of stuff was effectively national and what happens when the issue is missing If we really needs to lock down because Mississippi speaking in cases in the high seas, are filling up and all that stuff, but not New York missed
Turkey needs to then locked down in order to keep it from spreading to keeping the delta varied or breakthroughs of the variant from spreading to New York. New York locked down in order that keep the spread of the of the original covert from other states. You know I mean it's like there's supposed to be some reciprocal obligations living in a giant country. and you know if Mississippi's not gonna, do that. For me. and never had to block down for me, like you know, I'm I'm saying Mississippi should lockdown I'm just saying people in Mississippi should acts unaided, But no one asked the locked now and and and yeah logic of saying I hate lockdown am I hate. Vaccination remains the most baffling part of this entire conversation.
the imposition and that we talked about this last week, when no one you were away is lying about how it would be terrible for the federal government to come knock on your door with a needle and say look will just if you're willing to agree with you, and I will give you vaccination right here you know leave your house, nothing has to happen. We'll just do it and I will come back into its into the second rather be great, is some. I've, told you know like orwellian totalitarianism, But this is where the right- and this is where I'm sorry- I'm gonna- go on. Many ran about some of the right wing media messaging, that's going on now, because I think it is actively harmful that they're, like just asking questions about the vaccines, but that's not really what they're doing they are relentlessly encouraging people to to constantly hold that contradictory set of. ideas in their minds. As you say, John, that vaccination is, is bad and coercive Mcgovern's trying to pull.
Run you by demanding that you get it and the like guns are also coercive, so that that there's a way date to hold that contradiction in your mind, if the show that you watch every day We is constantly encouraging you to hold that view. Not that again and not some people are stupid, but there is a sort of feedback mechanism, in effect, your feedback loop among the groups that we really most want to reach for vaccination right now and what they are a regular basis or hearing from people they admire on television I mean I don't know, what's its We remain in this very peculiar. The culture war has taken very peculiar terms. The idea that this should be the emblematic fight as no up so you suggest
that this is shaping up to be a kind of emblematic fight, assuming its not superseded by other stuff, in terms of who is chosen, as the next leader of the Republican Party, who, by the way, will be Donald Trump, admitted that this whole thing hell conversation is ridiculous. Oh yeah, like he's Christie, Normous fire it Santa's. If Trump wants to be the nominee in twenty twenty four, he is going to be the nominee in twenty twenty four. There is nothing that is a standard his way every time they do these you know drop. Whatever he's is seventy thirty and lead. You know I didn't that's what's most frustrating about. This is to see the outlines of twenty sixteen again, which everybody's competing to be. They not Trop candidate, as fighting with each other over who's. Gonna. Take the not trampling on that didn't work. Last time. Second, work, this time to secrecy
I'm going after number to suggests were on a trajectory that we know we know where it ends and is not in a great place. in its eyes- they're trying to be the not trump they're trying to be the trump. So here's the thing if everyone's trump and then Bruns, there's literally no reason, aside from everything else, which is that Republican in seems like trouble not to pick trump, I mean, if you're, if its trump and then a whole bunch of trump wannabes, then you know it's like If you could see the Beatles or you could go see Beatlemania, would you wouldn't should go see the Beatles? It doesn't this sure this is the words gonna go again we're talking about us right in saying no, you wouldn't go, see Beagle, because the cost of the ticket is too high to see the Beatles. So so candidate has to make the case that the ticket price for Donald, the presidency, part too, is just what's orbit it right. Now
the Democrats had this problem with Clinton right. They were constantly in search of a Clinton without the zipper problem candidate right they never really found wanting, but that was always these sort of euro corn they were seeking. In the night I mean equally, the light beer slogan right from the nine? These are the eighties. Whatever was that everything you always wanted beer, but less, I dont like beer, but I never understood why. That was a good slogan like if you want something. If you want beer, why would you want less if you want tromp, why would you re taste, less filling right, ok, but but that but great haste less and less tweeting in this year, but no but everything always wanted the beer. But less is like. Why would I want that? That's, like I'm gonna, give you a beer, but it's not as good
as the other beer you could buy. While there are now there are conservatives who want that there are concerns one everything about front, but less of all of it. Yet there are thirty percent of them right, exactly nostalgia for the right to see pack, anybody you go as there is looking for ideological combat, but but there, but there are the enormous number of of controllers, one everything in Trump but more right. So I'm just saying I want to serve gain a belabour this point, but but I didn't know your nose in a very interesting zone to say that their that that that there appears to be an effort to set up a struggle between who is most like Trump. But just isn't it good its trump? If you like tromp, I mean it serve like the that J D Ve,
and the verses Josh Mandela, fight in Ohio, you know, which is who's, gonna, be more vulgar and aggressive, and you know and provocative in fighting the culture war in person yet neither one of those guys is it a gnat? Is it natural to them? That's what's so weird about this, like? Is that the whole point about Trump and about modern politics? Is this authenticity issue and trumpets authentically trump and everybody else who isn't trump? With some exceptions, I mean they're. There are people who are poor like trump who you know circulate, but I mean you know again: it's like they're, really Trump so
Then you have to like be fake trump, and I guess it in a race where there is no possible trump meeting of the Ohio Republican Senate nomination and twenty two year, you're trying to appeal to those people, if you really honest to God, get a choice between Trump and and anybody else you want trump. Why would you choose anybody else? Why would anybody if tromp runs the seriously with it actual standing around waiting for him to die before EEG before it before the convention or to get indicted or did kill somebody Something like that. Why would anybody want if he decides to run What are you? What are you offering. I'm an unless you're willing to say he cannot win, he cannot win, he lost the selection.
Only gonna be what the high water mark was: the vote to the garden twenty twenty can't win, because the Democrats can get eighty five million votes and we can get seventy five million votes at work at all. it was and he's a great man- is great news. Fantastic can't wins to an appealing to the people who have to make are gonna make this instrument the winds and, if you're not willing to say that's how on earth, can you you now have to make any kind of claim to the nomination warming up some earnest. You know anti populist conservative will run because it's the right thing to do because at all they ve vaguely they don't want to see the pot entirely seated to trumpet And some very dishonest, anti populist, Anti Trump candidate will run with the exclusive design
of generating a lot of publicity for themselves in the organization getting a lot of campaign contributions from the sun. the San left wing voters with now the intention of winning the nomination, but only of hobbling right that a lot of trouble. I obviously p, but will run because you won't be like you know, Gore clearing the field in them, Bill Bradley say our eye at all, while one but he's gotta run against them. I'll give you a lot of support. My school, we like all right I'll. Do it what the hell what's gonna kill me You know it's like that: they'll be people who had but Apple there's something very half hour yet so someone will run together campaign under me, James, I from home, like I, don't even know what that is so flaring. organ runs
whatever. Anyway, I mean we're having this classic. You know. Why are we ve been talking about this moment, but because this is where the political argument you know takes us- and he made this each on Saturday. I didn't watch anybody watch it. I don't watch trump a little bit of it. Why do I watched enough to hear you know, we go over the m. Have you from stolen by bill bars, nice guy. That's that's the problem. You know. than I ever heard of her talk at length about the aircraft carrier. That was that was a disgrace. If that perhaps he was gonna that he knew how to fix up that the Mai was being wasted on you. You know it's not that big thing about steam right muscle stimulates the steam an electric
Now I get anywhere near only saving graces that isn't. He saw my appetite focused on twenty twenty, that he gives his poems in opportunities to saying that we need to move forward without saying we need to move forward. Hey guys once again, the big economic debate in America is this question of the I'm coming. Inflation would talk about a lot and there's another one of these surveys of view. No twenty nine accurate. economists, all of whom say we're in for a couple of years of inflation that were seen corps. Inflation now where's go up in terms of consumer goods, and all of that, and and this is now the conventional wisdom and as I keep telling you, if you want to a perspective that goes against the conventional wisdom and looks hard at
political and economic history and even recent history and says you know the transiting air, particularly with the bond market portend, not long term inflation, but long term deflation. and a generation of economic stagnation. That follows Japan's pattern after the nineteen eighties, and therefore you need to plan your investment strategy. In your retirement strategy and all that wisely, you want to look to our friends at the bonds and Group David Bonds, and manages aid by coastal firm with three in dollars that he invests for his people, and he produces these documents that easy today that common dividend CAFE COM one daily one weekly that goes through economic data
and policy questions of the day of the week and illuminates them in a sprightly, interesting compassion. I am very valuable way so go to dividend CAFE that come sign up for the d C a dividend cafe that come from the bonds and group the go to the intellectual spaghetti of the financial management and services industry, Cuba, Very interesting footage at a Cuba, tens of thousands of people complaining about Cuba supposedly wondrous healthcare system. And the freedoms that are being denied Arab, o, rising economic crisis and, of course, the President of Cuba's the first time I ever saw or heard
Of the sky, whoever it is now saying that you know the United States is somehow create knows is- is fostering this rebellion in Cuba that they're gonna hafta crush, because the fight people following along the Obama, people really really really are very serious about fighting the cold war in Cuba. That's why Obama, we know that these have normal relations with Cuba to some extent lifted all the travel restrictions and the embargo and Biden, supposedly the what we heard was the Biden kind of wants to follow suit. Or to build on that in some way delicately without doing things that will push the once again community that that they see
themselves into believing had moved to the left on these issues and of course it was handed the twenty sixteen and twenty twenty elections in Florida Trump. Can I just point out that the night the myopic coverage in the New York Times gave this is gonna? Give you a sense of How the kind of liberal mainstream is gonna approach was happening in Cuba. They made it all about economics the lead of the peace and also that the postal went on until promoting the article said, freedom, and other antigovernment slogans were shouted by keeping people in the street. They were carried, no mention the fact that a lot of these protests from carrying american flags that some some cuban cops actually join the protesters. No, no sense that this was a sort of pro democracy movement as much as it is a complaint
of how their own government is failing to give them basic services such as food and medicine. So that is gonna, be the angle was also story. There was buried like a couple pages in the paper that I think is gonna dig do not want to emphasise the fact that this is actually a fight for freedom and in a truly disaffected population. Finally rising up in the streets. Well, you know freedom is an answer. slogan in Cuba itself. I am a little you know. I'm reluctant addressed this eyeliner two thoughts on this one very broke in political and, secondly, the order nationalists. The first is the bible administrations. Initial response to this was framed by the Washington Post. Correctly was a disgrace. Initially, you had market Rubio, come out on Twitter and say now that those who defend cuba- the competent cuban communist party- cannot be to protect the people. Now, those in the military must defend the people, not the Communist Party to which Julie
insisting that secretary for the State Department Bureau of Western Hemisphere affairs tweeted, we are deeply concerned about calls for combat in Cuba. We stand by the cuban people's right for peaceful assembly. We call for calm and condemn any violence. The Washington has noted that this was correctly responds to you, ass lawmaker, not a response to the cuban government, which this new president had said, We will fight in the streets the very plainly making a threat there, and then you had a lot of cleaner, Jake Sullivan said another: U S: support freedom and good, quoting Julie. Charm said nor the EU supports freedom of expression, Assembly Cross Cuba. We strongly condemn any violence, targeting peaceful protestors and then Joe Biden released fairly good statement condemning the cuban government to that. But the initial response, the reflexive response from the State Department, is, The reasons why conservatives have had such a big problem with the state Department for decades in decades in decades, which is that there flax is to saying another week. We can't do anything about this.
My second point, which is that the freedom agenda, the lack of a freedom agenda on the part of the United States, Rejected by voters in those six innovate rather definitively has produced something less than satisfactory. In Venezuela in around twice in Hong Kong and now in Cuba, the outcomes that our hands off approach has taken. with varying degrees, depending on the administration has not produced outcomes that I think anybody would be satisfied with. So it's time Our forests reassess whether that is the strategy, the GEO political strategy that we really want to pursue, that that is the depressing thing about you seeing this uprising in Cuba, Is that over the past dozen years we ve seen some someone movements in some way repressive countries, and I've been with from the from the arab Spring today that the Green movement in IRAN to man,
demonstrations in Russia to Hong Kong, Venezuela and with it I think, the sole exception of Tunisia, none of them right in the kind of transformation Aurelio not that Tunisia Sterling success, but it but it, but it said it on the road to something different then have resulted in the kind of thing we would like to see out of this, and I agree with ivy. That is that it certainly at least partly due to our inability to take advantage of these moments and unapologetically the right side, that the vine state Pardon response to me is very reminiscent of the Obama administration response to the Green movement in IRAN. In two thousand and nine when, when that arose, and and though the bp were being slaughtered in the streets by the by the iranian siege and abominable Basic attitude was, we want to see p,
We respect the people protesters right protest, but you know that the election was decided. It was. It was in response to a corrupt, real action of of active John, and you know, so I do believe that the president is the love of IRAN. Is the president of IRAN and you'd? Have peoples both in the world is watching and that set and balls. They were obviously involved in trying to get to get to the nuclear programme. Look at the monopolies and surgeon, but one brief point is the story of the last decade when these movements erupt is that You strike, while the iron is hot. You move immediately when everybody's in the street supplying maximum pressure fund the descent support the descent broadcast into these country. Anger. The regimes do whatever you can when the moment is upon you because it doesn't last and when the momentum is gone. So too is the opportunity for regime change. I mean
you're, making you guys are making how instrumental point which is fine I mean an end and I think, there's no reason not to not to try it. I will just make a kind of basic moral point which that. It doesn't matter whether the pro doesnt matter, the quit their response, whether the protests, succeed or not. It is unlikely. History tells us that the protests will lead to the large scale change. You know which doesn't bubble up from below or does very, very infrequently and with often complicated results that you'd, really like? That's, not really why you stand up and say we believe in freedom. We support the brave people who are willing to put their lives on line for freedom. You do it not to be sentimental, but because it's the right thing:
to do, and it is of no help to you to be more circumspect. You get nothing out of being circumspect, You might as well just say what we all think witches while those people are brave and it's amazing and they they want what we have and they should have it at its terrible that they don't, and we should we This should remind us, among other things, to be grateful for what we have. because all we ever do is sit here and complain about how terrible this country is, and you can all drop dead because there are, there are people in Cuba walking around with the floor. again there not standing around saying I don't know this doesn't seem to be a very just country that has indeed I would damage, ok guys that, as has bad schools, that don't let enough African Americans into the magnets, you know like that. So this is an interesting point because actually next three July, eighteen thinking through the twenty fourth, is what has traditionally been known as captive nations weak. And this is why
Usually american President's issue statement to this effect right, like one of the nation's where people are still living under conditions that support. Freedom and and where they are living under authoritarian regimes. It's it's usually an opportunity to give a kind of video that statement that very few people going to argue with, unless your die, hard, communist or so official is an island. According to the Wall Street Journal, the binding ministration is thinking of getting rid of the whole captive nations branding and instead talking about free and open societies week, which is, we are on a given what's going on in Cuba right now in their response to it. So I would say keep an eye on whether they try to rebuild rebranded captive nations is actually about free and open societies, and but his statement will say to that effect. You know we should. We should talk. We should dig into the subtle, but because the toward the phrase captive nations had a very specific meaning before the end of the cold war. That referred specifically
the three countries- Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all of which had been independent countries that were taken over by the Soviet Union and whose dominion over them we, ever accept it. We did not accept that the Soviet Union had sovereignty in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. We recognised a government exile. We recognize Oddly enough, they had they. The government in exile had hold of currency from the countries before they were taken over that we accepted as actual international currency not than anybody had her
was that they had missions, they had ambassadors, they have all kinds of people, and this lasted for you know almost fifty years and then when the Soviet Union fell, those three countries are Sesar western democracies more than three yet more did a story it was I wouldn't. I would suggest that it- probably Substantial substantial amount of western support for the independence of all of the Baltic republics contributed to the efforts by legislators in the Baltic republics to open up the archives, their pursuit of the open up their markets from the period of world war, two in which the old between Hitler and Stalin resulted in these countries becoming captive nations. The the we that the word do their ability to read them all tat ribbon. Trop ACT lead to
the adoption of the union treaty in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, because it expose the extent to which the summit existed only as a result of Adolf Hitler design each shattered the myth of the union itself an accelerated the solution, some even so wasn't as those which is a moral posture that had no instrument laugh occasion, it get destroyed the Soviet Union. Look. I knew that. I knew the council, the New York Council for Estonia, in the late nineteenth seventies, early nineties eighties. His wife was my sister's piano teacher. Ok and there seemed to be something fanciful about all this. You know it was lovely guys and anti communism anticommunist activist. He did it this wasn't it job really Emily another job. I remember what it was, but he was the dino
Tony and representative in New York City and and and that's how I came to know about this and, as I say, do not Billy thought the Soviet. You will never end and there was going to be no way that these countries were going to be liberated from the soviet yolk by military action or whatever. But the idea was weed. weren't gonna, stand around and say that the Soviets had dominion over these over the Baltic republics and damned If ten years later, they weren't free and because we had husbanded this for so long, they didn't turn into Bela roosts. It didn't turn into cause it out, caught cause, extend or till she could stand. They weren't ruled, as Belarus has been for thirty years by a stalinist, totalitarian dictator and crews, Aigner Ascension, faster they dance
Other Soviet Republic has had that success puss exactly so, so the notion that we should now so those cap that is where the act so the idea that we're just there to help people keep the flame burn. until things change and then, when things change, they have built in their own heads minds of everything, the institutions that will lead to genuine freedom, that's more than enough, so that we have to make sure that you know the venezuelan people overthrow the government and take over from Maduro, which is what we wanted and what we would want to see happen. But as we can see, it turns out even there. That was not in the cards
rebranding is row is so alarming to me, because it's actually the idea that matters here, not whether we put troops on the ground to a system are behind him anywhere and the fact that the binding ministration once did it in this is truly orwellian start talking about things in terms of freedom. When the whole point of this, message was to remind Americans and the world of our commitment to those who do not have the freedoms that we take for granted right guys. You know when we talk about Bambi, herb. Second, advertiser: two acres: when running a business hr issues can kill you wrongful termination sets minimum wage requirements, labour regulations and though, It's our managers, salaries aren't cheap an average of seventy thousand dollars. Ear Bambi svelte. The M Bp was created specifically for small business to provide a dedicated age, our manager, craft age, our policy and maintain your compliance offer just ninety nine dollars a month with Bambi. You can change hr from your biggest
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so branch was like, I'm gonna go first and please us is gonna, go second, never guess. Elon musk will go third and why should we celebrate all this dolly's billion? There's about this one of the greatest things that has ever happened? We we we froze that the space programme frozen place was overly bureaucratic eyes. It was over. Leave, you know, was as safety madness and all of this and beginning ten or fifteen years ago, the privatisation of this exploration, which is parallels exactly the late nineteenth century. Rich people, sponsoring explorations into the front, tears and into archaeology now into the past, and all of that or into looking for sunken, bury treasures whether want to slice it I mean if they, This is why we actually want rich people to get rich to do things that are going to benefit and further the interests of mankind. I don't know what is.
and you know the only the objection that you hear from people like Bernie Sanders is now funding the welfare programmes in this country, and yet all these rich people get to go into space. Justino make themselves feel better about their there. mid life crisis or whenever I don't even know what the logic as this is a fantastic new in this that has been developed around space tourism, which will lead to space accommodations, which will lead to a comedy for businesses that they can develop products in your backing conditions and isolation to give the industry is proven, It's already got speculative investment in it and we're congresses do along these lines is gonna. Make me sound like a complete crank, but over and above the maximum, the forces you have been we get. The inflammatory is like the nineteenth century, the need to start granting speculative rights to companies to explore financially and export resources in space. We don't have the technology to do that yet, but we will and that incentive private rights in space territory for companies to mine extra
and bring back resources, wolves, bull, light, a fire under that business and provide economic opportunity that will give Bernie Sanders exactly what he wants. Look I Christine, you wanted to know. I was just going to say that when I hear when I hear Bernie Sanders kind of limburg- millionaires we're going into space. He sounds like whoever remember the pigs in space sketch from them up each other. the date me, but there he sounds, he sounds kind of like it that the sour grapes are a kind of it's always a parody of what what you would expect. The socialist in America has to say about this. I agree with the island This should be seen as an opportunity and actually away of them spending their wealth. Yet for some ego gratification clearly, but also with with the larger purpose. Look when APOLLO Levin went up and we landed man on the moon and then like two or three years later. You guys are really too young to remember this, but I remember this and- and
and everyone was bored everyone- God, Where do I go there going up again? What are they doing there and the truth is nobody really knew what they were doing there and the public lost interest them, except for the no amazing rescue effort of APOLLO thirteen to save itself from destruction? You know, within the space chrome kind of peddled out, because peace we're saying well. Why are we spending that money here? And you know what there was kind of a point to that, because this all top down it was all government funded. It was a giant programme, was a giant industrial policy programme to create a space program right now. Granted this- was also called war related in all of this. There is nothing but upside here. This is private wealth. That is doing something that isn't just you know, a buying sports teams.
And you know I don't know, get you know giving whatever it is private wealth pursuing something that is obviously an unimaginably important public end for the few sure of mankind and they're doing it, for whatever reason there doing personal glory, Oliver system, you don't want contracts, but I've heard gate and only vehicle we had to get into orbit not was invite, was in Russia right all We have private vehicles that now deliver instruments to the international space station liver satellites for NASA you'll be the snow. But this isn't it this makes a meteorite, because it's amazing how the entrepreneurs have sort of made. space or sexy again mosque as well. You know it's! It's funny that throughout this entire like decade, where Capitalism has been bashed constantly, and this rise for social sentiment. There's been there
I'm simultaneous sort of counter narrative where a bubble. sort of entrepreneurs, coming celebrities in a kind of novel way and become very financial in culture. The society- and I think it is it's it's it's a good sort of push back you, even if its intended as such, on on the prevailing sort of anti capitalist narrative. Look what when people got all upset because Isla Mosque hosted Sarah live, your memory, like their peoples, IDA, wife and you can ever really figure out what it was that they were complaining about this
I say we I mean you think Elon musk would be very pc for people like this year. We creates electric cars, everybody wants electric cars to reduce the carbon footprint and it's this of its added really did have this quality, this weird quality of just hostility toward wealth, so their zeal on mosque in get always whatever. Yes, he does silly strata who knows and all is a kind of capitalist who has made a lot of money off of the public teat because of pc spending on green technology stuff in vengeance from California and the federal government, and all that none the less like What is he doing with his money like we know What billionaires do, as I say day by day by football teams they by art today they have twenty five different homes and they have yachts and they do this and they do that
and these guys, who are all stryver right there all day they didn't come from wealth. They created all their wealth entirely by themselves brand set that three space guys right, Branson Mosque in an Jeff pieces. and the idea was it turns out. They made all this money, because what they wanted to do was changed. The ACE of humanity and change the nature of change, the history of humanity, not just through their business, but through this classic hunger to slip the bonds of what is possible, and you know and try to do what is what is impossible yeah this, you know, in a year old, socialist loser who was writing porn in it, whose letter in the nineteen seventies. Ah you know who yet you're saying like he's like Stadler Walled or from from the from them up
Betsy though he Sanders is like I'm trying to think of the names of the two famous hotels in Moscow, so he stammered Walter Viz, like you'd, like the international and the mosque. You know that nothing in the media, when he dislikes Bernie, is himself a millionaire. So we should just remind art listeners of that. What he and his ilk dislike about these guys is it enjoying their wealth. I mean aren't. They are in your face about what their success has brought them and the kind of horizon it gives them in terms of what they can envision doing. And yes, sometimes you get the Hyper Lou by beer from mosque and other silly thing. Here and there, but they can afford to blow all that money on that you know me, that's actually it actually, I will say in some sense Trump kind of road what you were saying. This idea of the entrepreneurs, a kind of larger than life figure. He himself wasn't that kind of entrepreneurs, but his brand capitalize on that
That is an extremely important point into refined that point slightly further in Josh Barrow submitted a theory that I subscribe to, which is that yes, Language is contributing to think not popularization and universal application of electric vehicles, which is great for the environment, but he's having a telephone doing it and that's not good. The environmental ism is supposed to be accompanied by sorrow and contemplative regret over the pain of existence at your living in and that's just not his his brand so went up when a billionaire buys a football trunk team and treat it like a giant pile, a coke that him in his friends can just dive into every weekend that flying with them, but when the saving the planet and having a good time doing it, that compromise leader that contradicts the entire theory aboard of existence for these people, which suits my purpose, very nice. I just want others with another figure. There has been a sewing instrument, instrumental in this arms rise with sexy Saxonism entrepreneur entrepreneurship, which is Steve Jobs.
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So why not very good right? I mean he liked it is it's a marble. yeah I had, I I didn't. I didn't think I was gonna be seem like a dysfunctional superhero Walton episode, but let's evidently when it is so Bela. Where were we real on it? It's fine suggest it is said tests, who really really really great performances of it, though that's that's the key, the rest of it, I think, is totally, but there too great for Florence Pew as solid Johannsen. No sister David Harbour as her suit. oh father of the broken down russian superhero Super soldier He choose the scenery. Florence pew is hilarious, she's, very vague idea and the end, but it's interesting the movie Europe. Here oh wow, set of his back and made
a million dollars in the movies that it made sixty million dollars on Disney's Premium Premier channel foretold, hundred and forty million movies back. Eighty million is not a good total for Marvel after two years at the theatre, if you're, if you want movies to come back to the theatres at this, is a very distress. Salt. Actually it needed to make a hundred two hundred twenty million dollars to show that movies are back and people want to go. the tourism there haven't broken the habit of it didn't happen and Oh Anne, The other problem is that, if Marvel is, was to lead the way to this resuscitation of the movies when you release a movie that, I think is actually disappointing. That will decide mostly disappoint people. I mean maybe not Christine, maybe not Europe, your son,
but he's also grading on occur because it's not like he would have seen this movie and then fallen in love with Marvel movies. Because of this that then lower. That then means that there will be less excitement for the marble movie. That's coming out in September at the Marvel is coming out in November that's coming out December, and then you have the declining franchise problem? like what happened? The star wars? It's what happens of the fast and furious franchises and all that and then marvel starts declining. There is no back, but there is nothing to support this industry as it as it as it. You know, hits. The second century crisis that its now in but dumb you can watch the at home for thirty bucks. You might as well do it if you have nothing else to do. You will not You haven't seen a lot of the other movies, be able to make much sense out of it, and even if who have you won't be able to make much sense?
yeah I will. I needed the teenager, who understood the marble Universe Timeline to place this movie it was for me. Otherwise it was taken ill of you. That's what I'm saying like us? Maybe I speak for some portion of our listeners here, I've most most probably I mean first, I don't. I don't actually like these movies and am firmly with marks for saving on this point about superior movies, but that aside, I'm I'm I'm I'm so scared to dive in any way, it, because I feel that unless I am sort of aid, our whole scholar I can't I can't be it so inaccessible to me the stories and connections or sell impenetrable to me that I don't even bother that was how it was for me for a very long time. These are my wife server moving, so I just started picking them up Ass Moses and it was never very satisfied or enthusiastic about them gradually got into them and then they do become covet rather engrossing storylines, like a twenty twenty movie arc.
Actually there is consistent with itself and this one being the exception. But if you place it within the time, twenty sixteen and makes a lot of sense regardless. When you don't you do you do into a b. I was initially very overwhelmed and kind of burden by that, but I will, then you can view in isolation, but I saw disliked superior moves. I was so sceptical of the all of that and then yeah come warming down, and, unlike the adventures, I didn't like the second adventures. I liked the four style man. I didn't like everything else and then in twenty fourteen twenty four in guardians of the Galaxy hit I thought gardens. The galaxy was fantastic to actually and was unbelievably creative in an entirely different kind of movie that I haven't ever really seen before and funny him to reverent and and and touch and begin a bizarre early, great
and then I kind of fell for them, and now I think they are coming, and then aunt man is the same was like really funny clever heist movie, and I really like the last to avenge movies. I love the new Spiderman kid, but I think This movie shows where this movie shows real, wear and tear that that the forum and the system are undergoing eight, where he had spent thirteen years it now. When anything like this, it's twenty four movies, every single one of them has been successful. Two wildly successful two unprecedentedly successful. There is never but a run like this in the history of motion, pictures and at some point- it was bound to fade there's a whole there's like seven more movies coming their beliefs,
me, shows and all that and end, the tv shows are very hidden, Miss Van them, beautiful looking and their beautifully acted em. They make no sense a lot of them, and- and this is really just not not very good m m except that this guy, the guy runs, Marvel Kevin Feige and we're going to I'm going to end this now, because I'm sure everyone is like incredibly bored and would rather hear us talk about politics, but he's just a Yes, a casting the sky knows how to cast like no one has ever cast any before making Chris Pratt into an action star with. He was like this Schwab on parks and recreation, making a superstar action start Chris pulling Chris hems earth this Austria that actor out of nowhere to be the war turns out. He is also a genius comic, saving Robert doubting Junior, who was a drug, addicted Phelan and putting it back on
Green, an iron man and making him the biggest star in the world. Does this again and again and again the dead. He did this with Chadwick Bozeman in black Panther, and now he's done this with Florence Pew David Harbour, Florence Pew particular, who was like somebody we're gonna, be seeing for thirty years like this is a star making performance. My piece, I like it, it's a Sandra, bullock and speed if your member serve like speed that's very weird. Little movie comes out, you're like who is that she's, amazing and then you know should basically been a star ever since, and that's what that's what happened here anyway. So that's warmer we needed. We needed am not on the ad, and so we ve now talk too much time. So I will be back tomorrow, but not Christine will not be done tomorrow Golly Alan Johnson will be with us tomorrow, but from an operative
but no we'll be back with us now in pursuing and aim for no aid Christine I'm John, but hordes keeps camel burn.
Transcript generated on 2021-07-26.