Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today as Monday January, twenty fifth, twenty twenty one, I'm John Paul towards me, editor of commentary with me. As always senior writer Christine rose high steam, I can associate ETA Renault Rocks, maintain our job. Executive editor, a green waldheim hygiene. Ok, let alone Calvin confusion out there, like all the confusion,

Is everything getting worse or things actually getting better because to hear the binding administration talk about it Things are terrible and they're not gonna get better and we are heading into a terrible, destructive horrible period, but the staff, say? Otherwise, the stats actually seem to suggest that the peak horror of the last couple of weeks is action. They now having into decline? And I note that, as I read some of the public health guidance from our friends in the public health industry, Once again, the the rationale for masks is shifting. You'll. Remember that first we had to wear masks to stop the spread. Then we had where Mass, to protect our front line workers now after we're Matt you have now then. You have to wear mass just to wear masks to stop the spread in general.

and now you have to wear masks, because this is the only way to keep the variants from spreading. So we have kind of constantly shifting rationale for the need for masking at all times, whereas we could just say. don't give me any rationales like yours, I, what is until we ve hit seventy percent heard immunity. Everybody should wear a mask period. Don't start telling me that the seventeenth reason that you Into where a mask, because I then dont know I believed you the other sixteen times, if you're good, they always here's another great reason to wear a mask. It's like it's like why you shouldn't smoke, so you shouldn't smoke, as is gonna, be lung cancer. It's you shouldn't smoke because it's gonna give your sister lung cancer shouldn't smoke because it's gonna, be it's gonna give people with asthma more asthma. You know it's like

just say you shouldn't smoke and that's fine. Stop! Stop loading on that and here's another thing: speaking of learning on, there's also, this idea now that you should be wearing two masks, Yes, you problem right which which, among other things, goes to your poor, makes you think more than what the where they telling us what this whole time than intended than the single mask that we then we were told, could stop the whole thing if everyone ward for a month, that was that was you know what was that founded that wasn't keeping us particularly safe if we really need to, and if we need you, why not free? You know really needs to be an exploration of the kind of logic here on the part of the binding administration. I mean you got There should be a fair amount of suspicion, so their motives based on their efforts to contend in officially

nonsensical way that they didn't inherit a single operative plan around taxing distribution. That was quite plainly, a political, negative, as Jonah's. You mention the case count happen. And to decline on January Eighth, that was the peak it seventy average case right, and it's been two mining ever since we are now at a case rate that we haven't seen since December. Third, on average, those are good numbers, but the administration seems terrified of good news, and the press seems equally terrified of good news. there. There is an effort to maintain the crisis, there's a weird there's a weird contradictory impulse. Now that governors are looking at their bottom lines for their state budgets and the tax revenue they ve likely losses to real. Then, at the moment now you know post an operation you Gavin Newsome in California, is, let's returns, indoor dining we're gonna go to a different here, we're gonna reopen because these look

his pole numbers and is facing a possible recall election and he's absolutely bungled. His handling of the Pandemic seamen Michigan, though Whittemore, has suddenly set up and go back to daddy indoors. Here in DC can go back to endure dining, though I shall now for that, doesn't make sense if you look at the actual data, because their reopening indoor dining at a time when the numbers are higher than when they actually closed it and when their initial reason, with the numbers her rising so again even citizens who are trying to understand the logic and giving their officials elected officials, the benefit of the doubt are just throwing up their hands, are going What the hell's going on here last night, the times published a very interesting piece about West Virginia was Virginia. Is that the state leader of vaccine distribution? They done a fantastic job where, when most place, we're just beginning to vaccinate their elderly vulnerable populations. West Virginia was finishing it up. Their expect to be done. Dine vaccinating their elderly. You go address population this week and how do they do it? times puts it in

identifies a couple of areas, one the first, which gave him a leg up as they opted out of a federal vaccination programme for elderly people, which was schedule which was a rate. and they said no, we're not gonna. Do that we're going to use level local pharmacies and created a network of pharmacies that partner up with these long term care facilities to deliver this vaccine, and it turns out that the private enterprise delivery mechanism distribution, mechanism was more efficient than the public one. Now, that's not to say that this could happen in the absence of the National Guard or operation Warp speed camp, but what it did right was hyper localize. What is essentially an extremely local problem, the global pandemic, but the can actions on the ground where you live very wildly, and thus should decrease The terms of how you addressed gaining efforts like vaccine distribution, West Virginia, did it really well places like Northern California have not

really internalize adolescent decreasing, as you say, maybe they're, starting to see the light. Well, that was also fascinating, because the the centrepiece of the federal distribution system in pubs Private partnership is see vs and Walgreens, and they went a different route. They want with local pharmacies, some of them. Essentially, it appears opened at long term care facilities precisely to distribute the vaccine. So what is this? tell you. It means that part of the problem is, you Ok? Well, your local CBS right, your local walgreens. You go into you on your Iphone, you type in CBS near me, and practically everywhere, Erica you're gonna, be ten miles from see me ass or ten miles from a Walgreens or ten miles from a Walmart, whatever right, ok,

but those are nationally run chains national centres they are not like, even though everybody who works at them is a local. The policy is the rules, the avoidance of litigation systems, the effort to make sure that you don't get into trouble with your stock, Well, there's all of that. That is a that. These are national companies owned by stockholders are by hedge funds or whatever, and they have a different set of priorities. If, however, there are that there still you're still in a place where there alike local pharmacist the local pharmacies and things like that. They know everybody. They know every single person. Comes in the door and the pharmacist is the small businessmen and it is business

on the wine he doesn't want to kill MRS Vienna Rosen Bloom, not that there are a lot of MRS Rosa booms and West Virginia and he now and so that that's part of not the romance of federalism, but the understanding of why federalism or that you know, or local localization policy works, because as you get Closer and closer people have take personal responsibility for their relationships with the people that they work within, live within, go to church with end and go to You know at the School board meeting with an earth that Friday night Football game with well in these where ideology. took all constraints have have damaged the ability to get the shots in the arms of them. Animal populations like here in DC, where priorities It is giving to certain zip codes based on racial make about those it goes in the city. You have you have this situation where you have an elderly person,

stood in line four hours waiting to get vaccinated and they cannot get a shot, even though there like: seventy, five plus and at risk- and in an obese you know middle aged dude from the Right zip code- does have a shot so like this is the situation where the public than asked their officials. What is the logic of this? logic. Actually, then doesnt comport with the science and then you have further mistrust further questioning and a breakdown of that kind of relationship that you're describing John that can exist organically at the local level in cities. That's that's broken. enough already during the past year, but with the pandemic, locked towns and the inability of the officials to get these shots and people's arms. Its recent there's a reserve regions of mistrust, at least I've seen here locally in DC. No, I think the resurgence of mistrust I mean you know you, you It doesn't matter who you are ideologically,

everybody in the country is undergoing a crisis of legitimacy with leaders. Right though dead Democrats don't trust the Trump Administration and conservatives don't trust. You know that health said you know good democratic officials in the states, this and everybody everywhere is giving its throwing logs on fire of their own legitimacy. That's why it's worth talking about not sought by demonstration of said you should, where two masks right. That's just you know, Orthodox Jus should recognise the to mask thing, because it is it's like it like, oh see, it's the way in which sort of like not fundamentalism, but like a people who believe that the most rigorous application of the rules is the best application of the rules. It's like why, half of which were cite the media through it three times, and you have to do this over and over again, it's

make sure your dotting, the eyes and crossing the teeth of one mask is good, but it's kind of his porous then stuff mangled. What mask and then there's a hits. The second mask and then it'll it'll start. So you know it's really good. If, if ones, good too must be better right. So it's worth saying so everybody, and at some point there somebody was gonna, say, I'll come in come on already like. Are you serious that we're gonna wait? You know somebody said yes some by them administration officials that, oh, that the incoming surgeon general said you know it's very ambitious for us to think that we're gonna have the herd immunity by September when schooling starts. So you're gonna say: oh come up like are you serious, like what you know? That's September, twenty twenty one, that's

three months since we started you play the game with me. I mean everybody jumps, off the train. At some point everybody says I was a good boy. I did you told me to do and all of this, but now you are just pushing me to far, which is what happened in California in Chicago witches those officials are like? Oh you know, I think we may have taken this too far. Milk happened. Ism is very, I mean it is no joke. We it's only seventeen years ago, governor of California was recalled for worse for less bad public behaviour. his mishandling of power. Outages then handling this state economy and making announcing that people were supposed to stay at home for two months. Face area competition right now when you one point four,

million signatures by March. Seventeen that currently have one point two years so they'll have those signal there's by Thursday. I think we should talk about what I think is the most astounding thing that has come from the buyer demonstrated that came from job battleground syrup, I'm just I apologize to interrupt the others just doing this quick math. Briefly, I'm sorry. We currently averaging one point: six one point one: six million doses of administering vaccine administering per day- have we we'll do that until September eight months away, we would have at that current rate, expecting We'll drop off, no acceleration. We would vaccinate but the first those two hundred seventy eight million people, out of three hundred thirty some odd in the country we met. You know nobody gets her. Second, those note there's no acceleration knowing no increase supply, which doesn't seem likely or reasonable so to even to speculate at this stage, based on the current rates that we're not gonna get

to hurt. Immunity makes no sense unless you just want to panic people right now. I'm sorry I was told there would be no math really it so early in the morning. You know my kids, my kids of mass in the morning, but the but but but but not me nothing wrong. There's no talk to about arithmetic that I'm pretty sure that's right, ok, and even if it's not right, even if its ballpark, even if it's not right, I like it so ably were saying what is the most astonishing thing to have come out of bite administration on this topic and has come from yo bite himself was that he said over the weekend that there is no changing the trajectory of this pandemic over the the next few months now, for all I know that could actually be true, but as someone quickly pointed out on on Twitter, the deep and at least in a half, the justification for four buttons presidency was that he would

be taken charge on day one and changing the trajectory of this of this pandemic. Right of this wildly mishandled thing There's no changing it now. You know I have to say. I think I think, to the extent that it is true it's because I dont think, really that's. The trouble administration did as bad a job on the panel make as as has come to be accepted and what more there is to do has to do with serve things kind of around the margins I dont know that there is this, this massive overhaul that that that could or needs to be in it's gonna person was an admission that the Trump Administration did everything and anything that could and that all the tools are currently that we have available Natasha are being implemented. Why would I Then the press is falling down on the job here and they know it because Two things are in Congo, can't say that we didn't have a distribution plan and also we can.

Do any more. Ok, but wait also. It makes no sense from eight I just said I wasn't gonna- do any math right. So a hundred days a hundred million doses of a hundred days it's only eighty million doses of a hundred days and was it twenty twenty five thirty million people it is thought made, may have may have had the virus sort. You know how I have it in their system or have anti bodies or whatever it is. Obviously the trajectory changes. If you get those conditions? A third of the country has immunity now granted if I am to accept as a matter of course this idea that, even if

who have immunity. It doesn't mean that somehow you're not passing the virus on the other people, let's just say, ok, which I gather is what word now supposed to save. We love science, but even if that's true In theory, the trajectory changes with the vaccinations are by definition, people are gonna, get less of it. because there were fewer people together, because there are more people who are Related gave their noise. We wouldn't vaccinate anybody ever because Iraq, nation is like a multiplier effect. If you get vaccinated you won't get it and then theoretically, though, apparently again, were not allowed to think this year

on pass it on to anybody else, so there's a there's, a double effect from vexation by the way. This is one of the reasons. Again, I'm not an epidemiologist, I'm not a doctor. I'm just a person who tries to Think about what I'm reading and if you say to me you know you can you can get vaccinated, but the You can still pass on the virus. Does let's I suggest that if you vaccinate people against the virus, the virus may give them the vaccine and they are passing it on to somebody else. How are they mystically getting the virus when their vaccinated unless the vaccination gives them the virus? I still don't understand the theory of it, since we know that you get it vaccine by getting a small dose of whatever their tiny dose of whatever it is diseases and then your body and react to it and I'll get him RNA one. The right, that's just the protein again, none of us here

participants in order to keep its Cato diet, as we accept that, Ok, there's one here, and I want you to try and Johnson one which is more the IRA and attenuated strongly about So let me just say there is one thing- and I think I know as mentioned earlier, mentioning earlier the incoming surgeons are all saying find administration took surgeon, general saying you know we might not be able to open at school the following: are richer, meaning the fault? There is one thing that whose trajectory well never change for the binding ministration and that's how beholding it is to its voters and, namely its unions, writes a? U do see what we ve been kind of predicting for a while on this podcast, which is that the political forces at play. Here are gonna, certainly, Europe, the message egg and we ve seen that throughout the pandemic, in comparing inner governors of states with a view to open things and governors where they kept the clause

but I think the binding administrations crazy messaging over the past week has revealed this quite starkly. Media's role has certainly been the media's been kind of complicit in the mixed messaging. It not calling him to account for this, but you know teachers are now in many states, have pushed themselves to the front of the line for vaccination. Their unions have lobbied for claiming their essential and once their backs and aided, they still say it's not safe for them to return to the classrooms happening in Virginia Fairfax County in Chicago. The teacher. Junior just stage yet another work at walk out because they refusing to return to teaching so we're seeing here, political manoeuvring and testing of the binding ministration the same with it in a foreign powers. Usually too, coming from a harsh and president. His own based is testing him now and it'll, be interesting to see if he pushed his back. He has a puppet now to say to those unions, enough kids need to be how can the classrooms- and he sort of said this- you know said this: migration, but he used the word safety,

can have safe, reopen classrooms and they are using safety as a wedge to prevent the having to go back to work on an ethnic minority that was all over the place. Yesterday was the New York Times story about suicides horrible, ass or of banks and centering him. Let in LAS Vegas, but a they don't have numbers on this yet, but like some an alarming increase in teenage suicides and, of course correlation is not causation, and if there is an alarming increase in that we ve had it. We had it at we ve seen a fifteen year. You know like increase horrifying, increasing teen suicide, but it appears to be have accelerated and the last nine or ten months which would suggest that the the the the life of America during the virus is playing a role in increasing it, and even that number is not the money

telling the most telling is apparently a dramatic increase in teens and kids as young as five to eighteen? Being taken to emergence, the room of mental health issues I dont know not sure I know what that means exactly will that could be a range of areas that could mean attempted suicide? Attempts could remain so we have the ability to broad term overdosing and anti depressants serb. Just like what tears. I e the attacks and various amended. The rifle range and rose numbers are right have been rising for some time. We know that that has been represses for kids and that's the cost. Again. You can quantify the number of teachers you get back to the number of classrooms that have new filtration said. etc, etc. It's much harder to quantify the impact of those kind of mental than the mental health costs two kids entered,

parents, but but that cost is very difficult to quantify, even capturing it by emergence room visits. Doesnt begin, that's the tip of the iceberg. What kids are trying to handle with this lockdown and nothing else, either? Friends. The central problem in having conversations during crises is the tradeoffs conversation. Because the general thing you say in the middle of a crisis at its worst is The house is on fire, so you got it. You gotta turn the hose arm and put out the fire before you can deal with the fact of like what caused the fire. For example, you have to put the day after you have to be if the doubts, the fire and that's the argument for don't

Permit me with what's gonna happen to children in case we have to make sure they don't die. We have to make sure that five million people don't die. Ok, but that was the argument for the summer. That was the argument for a different time and now the trade off of what it means to shut down schooling and and sports schools by the way its social, the social life of children, has been interrupted. and everybody social life has been interrupted, but obviously we're sitting out with these are them. Vulnerable emotionally vulnerable among us, and so we aren't. We not allowed to have a conversation about trade offs. Every time. Somebody said a lot. Bad stuff is gonna happen. If you walk down an economy, people were called monster,

You know it's like. Oh yeah, two hundred thousand people are gonna die. Well, how many suicides are they're gonna be from people whose finances are ruined, that's like, while that you can't hey that. How dare you old people are dying? You're killing your grandmother right, but of course you can say because we all know that it's true and we all know it's gonna be true- when we all know- and yet we are unable to have conversations like that and if we trust in our political leaders war, we would trusts that they work debating seriously these trade offs when they make the agonizing decisions to do certain things like, patients. Science at this point has become positively orwellian because weaves there's been repeated studies of the efficacy of laughter

a partial or otherwise as a means of arresting the spread of this virus. From the Lancet and twenty twenty in the summer of twenty twenty to TEL Aviv University to study the bubble, the frontiers of public health in a study out of Denmark, which is pretty much the gold standard. Multiple studies, A pretty must come to the same conclusion, which is that it's not that much, then just observing social distance and putting on a mask. We don't a whole lot of data to suggest that this really works, and yet it is and remains the policy preference of first resort. Even in places that are reluctant to impose lockdown are not doing so. Like Sweden, Israel has gone through like three, draconian lockdown still UK went through locked down and we have I stated to suggest it's not really all that helpful. but nevertheless it is a policy that policy makers prefer and that people around them who were invested in these policymakers defend vigorously and with emotional manipulation. Emotional blackmail, as you talked about and it's not it doesnt seem tether,

any sort of data will, it's kind of like you know, of putting it. and to a losing war too, to stop locked Townsend, how would be to say we didn't know what we were doing from day one. We have gone this far into this thing. That may be you have it having been that may have been delivering diminished returns for a long time now? But a war, you change strategy like its understood you know the first dead. Eighteen months of the war in the Pacific and World WAR, two is a disaster for the United States. Maybe wasn't it, three months have shorter than eighteen months, but it was but in it was a disaster and of course we didn't, even you know, engage the Germans on on you know. In Europe until nineteen. Forty four, we didn't know what we were doing. You don't know what you're doing. We obviously mishandled the Iraq war until the surge,

I mean there were various things like in war. Is you shift strategies because, and then yeah people come at you and pursue out and say your terrible and Are you and have commissions and all that that's part of the problem of doing life or death things, I mean par the issue here is the euro? Nobody made these people run for office. Nobody made them go work for the government, nobody made them. Nobody drafted them into doing this. And so they chose to take these jobs, these powerful jobs. With a lot of pomp and a lot of circumstance and this is why maybe people should did take a second thought in thinking that it would be fun to be a governor. You know, what's going on but to get back to earlier point this is we change generals? That's what Biden was supposed to be as a new general in this war against the pandemic and he's filling its administration with the people who made the bad decisions in the first wave of Pennsylvania worsen from Pennsylvania, the poem artificial me so to the weak, we we voted to haven't you

the strategy, but we're not getting it in that frustration like electing the club, if you think it, but that's an interesting nobody, your ears, the thing that lockdown, what is locked downs, are passive. Our versions of enforced masking and social distancing By saying we don't trust you to keep your dad dense and put on a mask. So we are, we are making you stay away from people physically. You cannot get you can't time with them you can't go to a movie theater with them. You can play sports with them and you can't go to school with them and use.

Your seer to stay in your house and not go out of your house, because we don't trust you in as I as I as I keep thinking here. This is a terrible talk about trade offs like this is a terrible lesson for people to be learning about a self governing citizenry that it is the it is: the conception of the leadership class, the United States, with the self governing citizenry, will cannot be trusted to take measures that will save their lives and the lives of others. I guess I'll have to interrupt you to add to that. That was the most egregious better. He was out of California and gather Newsome who, when questioned about what data he was basing his decisions on actually said. I can't give you the data, because people- and understand it, though misinterpreted so we're gonna just keep that data to ourselves, because the people can't be trusted to what's going on, only we can yeah it's a nightmare and I am

We keep talking about the effects and fall out from the crowd of virus, our friend unseen, or has that great podcast? I want you guys to go to the apple Itunes Store or a stitch article will play and download post corona. His new podcast he's got a new one out with right HANS alarm. Second, one was right, hunts, alarm and and rough my girl of them inhabitants, to both of them. This is the third podcast on New York and the effective corona on New York, and this is about whether New York and come back, given the fact that, in terms of trade offs, the lockdown culture in New York City has led to a spy. in crime, which we have also seen all over the country, but this is particularly pronounced in New York, which of course had become. This kind of paradoxical safest, big city in the world and an and has reversed itself.

and there's a mayoral race in New York and twenty twenty one. I said by the way on the last show that the primary is in September. I'm wrong. It's in June Ah, so things are heating up faster than they used to be in September two thousand June, but every every mayoral candidate, everybody was interested in the question of who might be the next may have in Europe, should listen to them episode of Post Corona, which, if you subscribe to it as I keep telling you I was on one talking about the Future Broadway and popular culture, meal, Ferguson from who were institution. The great historian talked about the historical parallels

Billy Bein, the the visionary baseball genius of the opulent athletics and other sports talked about. The future of sports. Adam grant from Wharton talked about the future of work. It is a great podcast, post, corona with dancing or Itunes store. Google placed it your go. Listen you will thank me for it. Ok being on the by demonstration in its first week is being tested, as administrations are always tested on various fronts outside the borders of the United States? Russia arrested the leading opposition figure, honouring avowedly whom, who was mysteriously poison gas by home last year, returned from Germany was immediately arrested and then over the weekend there were protests in dozens of cities, tens of thousands of people in each city in the streets, including the amazing sight of a people out,

demonstrating in minus fifteen degree, whether in Siberia protesting the arrest of Nevada. Me cops came out, people are being arrested, we were being beaten, his wife was arrested, his lawyer was arrested and the question is: what will the response is? What will obviously Putin's response me? What does this mean? Doesn't have long long, lasting implications? That's one! Second. China did a massive overflight over Taiwan as of show force, presumably as it as an as a first week, Testa VA of Joe Biden sense. Of course, China wishes to restore Taiwan to its ah it to its bosom and crush the freedom, their presumably the way it's crushed the freedom in Hong Kong and and we have an interesting as situation,

in an early potential job controversy involving RON and whether or not the by demonstration will appoint, despite a pretty tough talk from incoming secretary of state, Where is he secretary? Did he get voted out anyway, Anthony Blinkem and Jake, tell them the new national security adviser, pretty tough talk about IRAN and what it means studio back into the interview, on deal and all of that. But there is talk that they're going to appoint Robert Mally former National Security Council official as their IRAN on boy and Rob Molly is a very smart, very able very capable person with absolutely ah horrifying views of of IRAN and Israel and the Middle EAST, and somebody who objected

Bill Clinton, for example, in two thousand, when Bill Clinton told Yasser Arafat's that Yasser Arafat's had made him a failure because of Yasser Arafat's behaviour in refusing to assent to the camp David deal that he had come up with with echoed barrage including said, I'm a failure and you may be thy romilly what a whole long piece in the New York Review books about how? No, no, no was all Israel salt was all Israel's fault that it agreed to a deal that would have given statehood and ninety eight percent of the West Bank to the Palestinians. That Yasser Arafat rejected and then started the intifada. So this is the guy so Our friend Eli Deal had a piece. Some Bloomberg saying Rob Molly is very being very seriously considered and he would be very dangerous.

And this is an interesting tat. So these are the tasks we got, Russia, we are China's. We got a wrong, I'm a you were you haven't. You had some interesting thoughts in relation to in relation to what may be going on with an evolving in Russia. What's a hopeful thought so so Europe so take for what it's worth. You don't terms of response so far that March, by the way we have to get some crushing morality, merge absolutely for everybody, we're here on this progress with doing it every day for a year, people seem to like it and if we ever, cells, anything in the commentary shop. It will be a crushing morality, sweatshirt, but so please go on so in terms of pollutants response we ve seen far and what is done? They ve arrested thousands among them among the protesters, and I am sure that will continue. But I did have this this one semi hopeful fought-

which was that you know just as the v virus and v locked downs, have destabilized country after country, including many good upstanding countries that that are that do value human rights, individual liberties, but had led the, but these, but have these countries have nonetheless been rocked by the v aggregate of being locked down being socially isolated, losing their jobs and, as we ve seen in the U S, omens given rise to all sorts of I'm social unrest. It could be that indeed it has and will continue to do the same in countries where some sort of dramatic change would be. Actually I'm very salutary

and in places where, like Russia, where otherwise, you know every few years or even more frequently than that. There are large scale demonstrations against pollutants, authoritarianism, and you get a little excited and then inevitably fades away and put cracks down than theirs Cole, showing that some huge majority of the russian people support him. After all, it would be interesting if, if the disorienting effects of this past year could make some difference in actually pushing Will you be anti prudent sentiment over into something more effective their little dirty secret of the five years that we're just lie: Now suddenly, now the truth can be told where, when you they're after after six days

yeah so just a job it doesn't have a whole lot of tools in the tool shed when it comes to going after them regime, all of them almost all of them, were invoked over the course of the Trump years the sanctions regime. on Russia now, which now includes the oil sector and has done since February. Twenty twenty is pretty pretty strict, hasn't had the desired effect in part because the regime functions like a terror, supporting regime, it doesnt really care all that much for the for the well being of the public and for economic growth, except in so far as it advances and send secures regimes control. What you can do is treated like a terror supporting regime, not list Russia as a state sponsored terrorism, because that would be very complicated but freeze assets These is restrict travel fur outside of the country for regime officials. That, with common Kate just about every foreign policy initiative that the burden

illustration, wants to pursue as far as we understand it, particularly in regard to IRAN. But that's that's! That's all. That's left to them and if there were serious about it, they'd invoke it. They did something Pretty good by sending a carrier group, is there a forced group into them such Wanna, see in response to this time. One brief of their Erst airspace, which has seen goodbye cosmetic. Nevertheless, demonstrates a willingness to confront these challenges when they arise, and if the payment training serious about presenting a different, sort of face to Vladimir Putin than the one, that is that don't trumpet supposedly show

and then they wouldn't both these sanctions against individuals, but also probably sacrifice just about every objective that they have a virtual ran. But what's what's the priority here I mean that's a very interesting. We don't know when will see, will see what will see what happens, but I think we, the way things don't stop, and this notion that you know this notion that that Biden wasn't gonna be tested fast. Every presidency is tested pretty pretty fast. I mean the trump. It was weird how little tested Trump was, but you remember the beginning of the Bush administration featured the downing of the of a plane in China that we had to serve negotiate over. Nobody wants to deal with any of this when they just start

and what did I wish you have talked about during the cover them with the text that has has has an effect. Here too, is an startled. The more I think about it by the cynicism of the Biden, people in having clearly come up with a pr strategy. how to talk about cove it where they said. Oh, we ve been dealt with this horrible hand and really terrible, and we can't make anything better. Obviously you would say when you're looking at this gives We were saying that this is preparation for saying, march- oh my god, we're doing so much better than we ever thought. We could wish just thrilled that we're. We will see that our goals and we ve acceded everything we thought we could possibly exceed, The reason I say this is you know I mean I,

one can be very cynical about politics and all that and still say- and you know we ve been through tromp and trumps use of- did you know canoes and his own understanding of fake news, and all that you kind still silica little jarring that you would play this game with something is serious, as you know: the lives of hundreds of millions of people and and the ECB the United States and everything like that, like they're, really like they must have gone into a back room and come up with this unified strategy that everybody is sick, From the same hymnal about exempt and manufacturing now but voucher right, but of course vouch, he has his own purity too, with them wasn't probably in those meetings, because he was too busy in his forty six interview of the day. I turn on the tv this morning. I was telling you guys.

So I too, I never have the tv on in the morning, but I happen to be up. I turn on the tv, so I put on see me as this morning and found she is talking at seven o three and then I turn the today show and found she is talking about seventy three. When I tried to log in the Erika found she is talking, it was like when, when, when Monica Lewinsky's lawyer was on all all five since that day shows at the same time, for these are pre taped interviews, Edward what's voucher, all they were asking him about was Deborah Burke's and her. What she had said about about tromp on unfair the nation and there he was saying we're very concerned about this and are very concerned about that. The south african variant I'm like when were you when, if you had five it's too have a conversation about the south african variant. I'm in this. is literally going from Ray you're, mad cow to Chris Cuomo. To this one too, I mean he is just a pr guy. That's all he is he drifted,

fucking head: ok, but the peat, but the pr peace has one of the compound walked, but by the wave of you as a body below below his shoulders. Like other lets us we're gonna stop turning up using one saw his body and full frame, and some of those press conferences, but I listen, you know, he's got a nice sky and he's got his nice sure, but the buttons and jacket- and I dont know that he actually has is not just you know like us, stick blood but invite all of these officials- and we saw this in it. We saw preview of this with the way Nancy Pelosi was handling covered relief before the election and we're gonna continue to see this. I think until this huge package relief packages push through, there is don't binds dealing with a little better push back from his own democratic coalition about costs of his relief package right there's. Some of them are saying you know this gives a lot of money away to people who already earn a lot of money like that. There's a three hundred dollar limit on some of this stuff and so that the demand

this coalition going. This doesn't look like work out we know from the experience of this in the past almost year of lockdown and the pandemic, that that it's, the working class people who have suffered the most in job loss in ways losses and actually out of our leads, have made money turn this time. Certainly the big companies like Amazon about not so he some of the messaging about the pandemic in general, must also be a tactic to make sure that the crime cs environment for the economy that he wants to push through with this package is also disdain for longer our guys. You know I I I mean to pull back for a second and talk to you about our second advertiser of the day: quip no quip as the gray lecture toothbrush Antarctic. gum gum, unsung heroes when it comes to better oral. Healthy American Dental Association recommend chewing sugar freedom for twenty minutes after meals.

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so, as expected, the Arizona Republican Party which called on people to die for Donald Trump in December has has voted voted this week at eight. I totally psychotic goat rodeo that you can watch on Youtube if you have the stomach to do so. I voted censure. it sitting governor, who won with fifty six percent of the vote, its former governor Jeff Flake, answer would consider where the most conservative members of the Senate and the fiscal conservative a very high vintage former head of the Goldwater Institute an Cindy Mccain, the widow of John Mccain censured by the Arizona Republican Party who that whose head

Kelli Ward, who has never seen an election. She didn't lose because of her psychosis and madness, and craziness and horror and the dusting this one re election as head of the Arizona Republican Party with fifty one point, eight percent of the vote. This followed an effort in Kentucky the state, literally, whose Republican Party was literally built by hand by one Mitch Mcconnell, whose representative for Gonna, roughly two hundred and eleven years, three in fifty people in the Arizona? Probably I then that Kentucky Republican Party, Sir Central Committee, an effort was made to censure Mitch Mcconnell

that only got ten percent of the vote, but was out of the three thirty five out of three hundred and fifty, but none. The less was was taken up on the grounds that much Mcconnell was insufficiently. Does the defensive of Donald Trump, does any of this matter having a crazy state party, absolutely does matter. We only have to look to Virginia for evidence of that. The Virginia Republican Party has atrophied in its capacity to talk to voters who are in the base to the point now that it's just a permanent minority, vehicle and that's easy is sort of sea that in states where electors, whether about the parties sort of begins to lose its lustre, becomes very insular, very quick and begins appeal only to the base. I saw something to that effect from Lord Ingram who

You said the ignominy of you had the story coming out of lump minority leader, Kevin Mccarthy's office saying that you're just getting crap from all angles that they're getting dumped on from the establishment areas institutionalists undergoing dumped on from the mega people in the getting dumped on from that persuadable voters. They just can't make anybody happy was kind of what happens when you try to make everyone happy make no one happy and that's what they're doing with now, it's a boring runs prescription is seen. Others just worry about the base. Just only talk the base just focus on the base. Just try to make the base happy, don't worry about persuadable voters in the middle or on the fringes. And that seems like a pretty a prescription for losing and maybe that's what you want if you want, you know to be as radical as possible as uncompromising as possible if you're, not a vehicle for winning elections, which parties are but more just in in organ, for advancing persecution, complex in insulating people from criticism who deserve it

then. Maybe that's what you wanted on necessarily want to be a winning party. You just want to be a sort of vague, a club. Well, ok! So if you look at the history varies republican parties over there state parties over the course of the last decade a virgin? is the most dramatic like Virginia, actually had our problem, Governor elected who was unfairly and unjustly prosecuted and driven from office. His up his prosecution overturned by the Supreme Court, but in twenty fourteen and unexpectedly strong showing by at Gillespie Former heavily, are in sea, had there been more investment by the National Party at Gillespie might actually have one that race and yet At the same time, the Virginia Republicans figured out a way to ditch era, canter the number two person in the house and then

nominated a DNS server, very radical guy. Further JANET, whose name, I can't remember it, has now become yeah. I kind of like a crank crank version of them a working party Colorado, which recently as twenty fourteen arranged. rearranged itself to make sure that a more moderate candidate, Corey Gardener ran for governor over a more radical candidate. Kalmbach. Getting can bucker how the essentially court gardeners, how seats Oquirrh gardener with them, get to run for Senate and won the race. He lost

this time in part because the rubble can party has moved so far. The right and cholera is. Politics have changed that he no longer had all that much support in the suburbs, Corey Gardener, who is not a particularly in our conservative politicians. We will never see another Corey gardener or not never, but in in in future right you're not going to see this. That was a quarry gardener being moved into that race in order for publicans to win the Senate than twenty fourteen. That was the response to the republican parties. Horror at seeing Sharon Angle, a Richard Murdoch and Todd Aiken entwined. ten and twenty twelve destroy their chances of majority by being lunatics and having to be run out of town on rail. The idea was ok. Well, you know we'd better, get better people in here and not let the not let the crazies take over the nominating process and so Joanie Ernst. Why?

and in twenty twilight, the grassy took a very publicly hands off approach. After twenty ten, they got a lotta crap for investing in these regions resting behind winnable candidates like my castle in Delaware from places where there is in our winnable candidate, who could take the scene a castle- would one that seems like that, but they got it often primary sharing, I think was twenty twelve are now she was many times. Use journey was twenty tears now Donal, who knocked off my road out right, so I was up and down in Missouri brain it was twenty two anyway, but here's what it has done so in all of those races- and this is where it gets interesting in all those races and in the Elsie race, and in various other places. Sometimes these a revolutionary transitions took place because people snuck up on unbeknownst,

HU, the mainstream they snuck up and am and slaughtered them. Low turnout, races that nobody expected, namely Runnin so day Rakkeed AIR Canter in Virginia I sneaking up on I'm cantered to paid no attention to the race had no the other, he was in primary trouble. Just as was true in Alexandria COM the court has his race, which I remind you. She won the primary by a grand total of fifteen thousand votes to ten thousand votes over Joe Crowley. Twenty five thousand votes in a district of five hundred and fifty thousand people, so Robert Bennet was knocked off in Utah by Michael E Eta convention where he had not bother to try to organise because no one had ever lost in that way. Aiken Murdoch an angle:

all sort of followed somewhat the same trajectories. I don't think you can look at what's gonna happen now and say any Republican. Any race anywhere is going to be surprised by an insurgent right they're, not gonna, be surprise. No one sneaking up on anybody any more. That game is over. It's already been seen how it works, and so they're not gonna, sneak up on them and beat them. However, in an effort to evade and avoid being snuck up on and beaten, they could go crazy. They could essentially become Q Q and on sort of like implicit Cuban on supporters, just so that no one can get their right, and that is what I think the danger is here is that on the one hand or mainstream politicians are now at risk?

From these insurgents and on the other hand, there were general response as a marketing tool is to try to cooperate message rather than say, I'm not gonna, let this party be taken over by cycle. Ex they're gonna try to wound the psychotic by by being a little more psychotic and I don't think that's great. Well, I knew you still have your wildcard of Donald Trump hanging out in Florida and you know o between Gulf rounds. You know floating the idea that you know he's gonna the issuing basically small threats between now and one whose abatement trial begins, that people better come into line and support him and you have people like mad gets. You know flying to Wyoming this week, to rally against Liz Cheney because of her support of impeachment there's a lot of civil war going on inside the party. Some of it, I think, will a purifying and good- but I think, you're, right John, if it, if the, if the

typical move in is the republican panic to co, opt the crazy, that's long term, a very bad strategy for getting back a majority, a good man, it's not real, was not new, either Thomas Masses kind of his eccentric, libertarian congressmen, and I'm paraphrasing him here, because he said something that was pretty good, but going back all the way to twenty ten If you see he said again paraphrasing that we were under the impression that the public and voting base was really interested in returning to conservative principle, I'll, send a libertarian view of of governments and done with really wanted was just the most crazy guy in the room and the time people like me and ran Paul. Another libertarian types were the craziest guys in the room. Turning to the breakdown, bilbil introspection. That was that was interesting to hear from him and bear it.

Makes a lot of sense when you think about it. I want to come back to us, but first I need to talk to you guys about expressly p m because having you choose, which a minute service provider to use the sad thing is, most of us have very little choice because ice peas operate like monopolies in the regions they serve and they use this monopoly power to take advantage of customer. Data cap streaming throttles, the list goes on and worst of all, they logger and inactivity and sell that data to be other big tech companies and advertisers. That's why to prevent eyes. Peace for seeing my internet activity, I protect all my device express from me, am simple app for your computer smartphone them crypts. All your network data and tunnels it through a secure, vps server, so that your eye ass became out, see any of your activity just think of how much relies on the internet. Sadly, every site you visit, video, you watch

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was this idea of. Like you know, why should the left have all the fun yyy should Democrats have all the fun? You know there was there before trump. There was this idea of a conservative to me reserve conservative temperament, which meant that you were measured and reserved and thoughtful about things. and your activism was was mostly the there was the stuff of of the left, and what makes the moment John you're that you're talking about I think very scary. The idea of she's gonna try to call up the crazies or- or you know, Sir, Being killed by the immune response essentially is is, is that have they ve gotten the fun? It's not that far from our perspective, but what they see as fund. It is very hard for them to let go of that. It's right much like you know, limiting someone's freedoms after after granting them.

But we are not our own journey, my of toxic yeah. Yes, we're! Ok, so so we ve very interesting things going on over the next eighteen months to up to twenty months or something told the mid term elections which is the Republic and Party is going to be in a civil war. The democratic party has an opportunity, in my view, to deal not saw death bloke, as parties never undergo death was, despite all this talk about how they ll be, other party. The problem needs to away, but as well as the opportunity to serve deal a kind of minority too, to shove, Republicans, into minority status in every purple state by not being crazed, ray mentioned this on

Friday, show that Nathan, Wurzel had said are probably could son said. Look if we're just not crazy. Who knows what we can do, because the Democrats are now oh, that now up six, what three install guy with a Wigan can claim to be a girl and play field hockey and get a title scholarship by me. What everyone, a slice of I know, that's a terrible enjoy still what I've done with my caricature, but just go with me here: whatever it is? Cultural liberalism, leftism, woke ism, and so culture. All of that that they have a real that there is a real oh idea that this may or we'll signs that this may be the dominating force of the Biden, administration and the Democratic Party thus going, and there could be

an enormous reaction if they could avoided if they can pull themselves back from it and let the Republican Party go crazy. Every one of those suburban voters who might bounce back to the Republicans will maybe vote again for the Democratic Party for the third time. Eighteen, twenty and twenty two and then at some point there not Republicans anymore and they're, not swing voters anymore. They are democratic voters. They ve looked at the Republican Party over three elections and said they these pre. I can't have any. They are not the sorry they're nuts, and so this is a time of testing for the Democrats as much it is for the Republicans about. Are we going to devolve into woke crazy people and cuban on crazy people dominating our politics because I don't really understand where things go, for

are, you could have a circumstance which the woke people or act. the more scary are scarier than the cuban people and the report working parties, internal reckoning based on its embrace of irresponsible, crazy, radical lunatic politics will actually be postpone or warded, because the damn crash of gone, even crazy, and we should really take that up tomorrow. So I think we will take that up tomorrow, but we have taken too much of your time today. So for aid received. No I'm chomp outwards. Keep the camel burn.