« Commentary Magazine Podcast

The Iran Deal Is Back—And So Is Crime

2021-04-07 | 🔗
Today's podcast takes up the moves by the Biden administration to reopen talks with Iran, as well as the evidence that the crime spike of 2020 was not about economic hardship but rather an offshoot of the war on the police. Also, what is the difference between voter depression and voter suppression? Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast today's Wednesday April, seventh, twenty twenty one. I jump on towards the editor of Commentary magazine go to commentary magazine dot com. Will we give you a few free, reeds and ask you subscribe? You can also, by March there just look for the word March and in the banner. The top- and you see what you can get with me as all ways: executive, editor, a Green Waldheim, Hydra Senora, Christine Rows, high, Christine idea and
Associated editor, nor Rossman, so Noah, You have some thoughts on you ass IRAN there some interesting news yesterday suggesting let them Israel is taking a more aggressive, conventional approach to up to the threat from IRAN retaliatory strike using means where I'm not sure we knew they had anyway, no please yet what you're describing in some? Apparently, something has been ongoing for some time that hasn't gotten a lot of press in the West and its son recently getting more ink. I think, as a result of the ongoing negotiations in Vienna to restart the around the elder J C p away. Apparently, Israel took credit for limpet mine strike on a ship that is supposed to be in this
raining commercial of commercial ship that is largely perceived to be even in the press, are perceived to be this some French for weapons and forget down to just disrupting the and I gather services frame. Does Israel striking back against ran in and you know having some, insurance in the event that a deal is strong, in Vienna and theirs. A whole lot to talk about when it comes to Vienna right now, negotiations are ongoing, is described as productive, which is to say that nothing is actually happening. That's diplomatic speak for we're, just sort of in the room talking I'm not even actually in the room. You uranium negotiators at one hotel american negotiators at a hotel across the street and the Euro He partners literally shuttling across the street train These negotiations on the site The point is essentially who moves first on the United States
Once ran to demonstrate in some capacity that it has made moves to again ringing be back in compliance with the J P away, which probably means reducing its capacity. To enrich uranium or reducing its in ensuring stockpiles ran, says one Gonna do one thing until all of the sanctions from the Trump era are used in that's actually easier to do. That's just a switch to conflict with so every he's pretty pretty much stuck there for now, but the Bite administration has a self imposed timeframe on itself and its, not necessarily in line with political the political calendar in the United States, although that matters than to get something on the books before twenty twenty two, so it's harder to roll back but according to the people, were talking to reporters. Their objective is to get something some sort of framework in place before I believe June, the summer of this year,
as is having elections, and ran. The thinking is that and the thinking is always ever thus that the hardliners or common her liners are on their way in their going and data on what the conservatives in the red they don't want to go shaken. They, no one in the rain deal. You get me, you have our power whereas are moderate partners and people were honey, and so we have to get a deal place now we're honey because we might get into the second coming among mood. Ahmadinejad, only on the back into this, thing and then all our efforts will be for not soap. Biden is the woman
whose put a fire under this negotiation by demonstrations, but a fire under them, which means they're gonna, be the first to ban right. Ok, so what's what what's the gears you're saying that they might want? You know the on the books before twenty twenty two, but that in fact there are thinking about the uranium elections in June. Twenty twenty one correct me if I'm wrong- and it's another interesting thing about this,
There are actually taking real, deliberate, concrete steps towards this goal. The iranian Nuclear deal was unpopular in the United States. It was not popular, it was and popular as a result. It could not be submitted to the Senate as a treaty because it would never have achieved treaty status and indeed, when the decision of the determination was made to put it up for a vote in the Senate. The way that it got structured was that you were gonna have to vote either two thirds three upset whatever their hadn't. You had to have sixty votes. saying no, as opposed to sixty votes, saying he asked in order to derail the deal. That was the negotiation with the Senate in twenty fifteen. Why?
because it was unpopular if Jordan only by the way treaties, as proposed by presidents. Real trees are actually popular. Here's an interesting example of this in nineteen. Seventy nine Jimmy Carter sent the SALT Treaty, which was never passed all to excuse me, the SALT Ii Treaty, which was never passed by the Senate in a rejection, a democratic senators, rejection of a democratic presidents, most important foreign policy game was a very, very significant moment in in in postwar american foreign policy. Didn't pass poll showed there weren't as many poles than I like. Hardly any, but poll showed that close to two thirds of the
people supported the salt to tree. You said to them: do you want there to be a tree limiting nuclear warheads? Whatever? What? Whatever? The question was gallop ass, TAT Harris asked if it was really popular and the rejection of it was on substantive grounds, people thought as properly that it and shrines a soviet advantage in nuclear warhead numbers, and it was therefore a terrible deal. Some say this again, as I say it all. The time like Abiden does not have em a big margin of support in the United States, even though he has suffered Paulie well, five seats in the house, a tide Senate, four and a half purse, one by four and a half percent. Why he would try to hang the first year of his presence.
the on the desire in foreign policy terms, or at least part of it, on the desire to re, enter a deal that is unpopular when it was signed and in which there was absolutely no blow back when Donald Trump pulled out of it. twenty seventeen no blow back, not only wasn't there, there was no political cost and probably a little bit of political benefit to term for his having done that sell politically. This is a very. peculiar thing: that's going on. That's all I'm saying it's not a normal way to go about it. If you were in the political circumstances, that Biden is in with him seeking an unfair, a policy that has been proven to be unpopular and whose rejection or removal was not unpopular in their defence in so far as it is a defence, the Biden Joe Biden campaign on returning not to
J C P, o necessarily, but to a stronger, more robust J c p and Everybody on the in his team, within the State Department and negotiators at that in Vienna, arts maintaining a hearing to their pledge are saying that we need a stronger version of the basic view. Is that the Jessica away, those passing twenty fifteen? I was here too, and twenty fifty km We can simply rejoin at its inception to the moment, so and this is another. What they're doing right now is designed to fail. It's not going to succeed in that effort and it suggests obviously because their self, their subset timeline that they do want just something anything some sort of framework in place but made, that's just a predicate? Maybe they just need a fig leaf. The can demonstrate that they made in good faith effort. Or restoring some sort of a nuclear negotiation here, so that when fails that ve appeased the coalition's on the left. Who will accept nothing less than abject surrender before nuclear restaurant?
well, something we ve been sand podcast for a while now said popular american interest. In. U S, foreign policy is a very low point. I mean up to the extent that Americans pay attention to foreign policy at all these days. It's it's of its assent, minor issue serve. You know on their radar, so in that sense, They could almost sort of you now try to sort a sneak in the press will cover it. You know glowing Lee as this universe roof this piecemeal Every effort, Trump ruffled, the world's feathers- and you know they big day at least administration won't take a the huge hit for I agree with now that there will fail. I think what it will succeed in doing. At least you know, to the extent that this already hasn't happened. A little further succeed in
pushing Israel end Sunni Arab countries together. This is exactly the dynamic that pushed them together RO bomber, as they had shared this common thread in IRAN and saw the? U S trying to rebuild in runs him. Will you know it? So? Let's, let's, let's unpacked up a little bit, I mean: let's talk about idealism, the the Democratic Party or the foreign policy, a wise mines of the Democratic Party bought into the logic of the IRAN deal right, which was we can bring around community of nations. We struck the deal and pushed her runs timeline for getting a nuclear bomb eleven years down the road and according to Obama, at least on sixty minutes, had features of the day,
that would have pushed it even further down the road so so suddenly they can't really get the bomb until twenty twenty seven twenty twenty eight very minimum and who knows what happens between now and then and we'll bring them into the community of nations. Maybe their behavior will moderate as they get into the communications and trump comes in and says the hell with all of this and the people who didn't like it, who said we can't deal with these people? They're animals their total. It herons they wanted their millinery into one of destroyed Israel and who are fomenters of terrorism and discord and horror those people you know they come in and they that these are the people that this that the battle in the foreign policy community is between. Does United States confront bad actors, particularly radical actors in the world, or does it seek to costs at them? I don't even know what the word would be aiming to sort of two.
Met them into a larger community without reference to their own flaws or their own in our behaviors, and so may what's going on here is that this is what the Biden people actually believed to their marrow, like it isn't just say what they think, that the direction that that a confrontational direction is a threat. the world em they're gonna do this, even if it's on popular or even if you don't buy them anything because this is who they are. This is what they believe and that its to their credit in that sense that they are not cynical you're, not pursuing a foreign policy of cynicism, but a foreign policy that that expresses the long held view the doctrines of their of their ideological tendency I don't know we don't seem to have any indication that there are prepared to abandon the objective advances
american interests in the region that were achieved under Donald Trump Mean Europe is not true that is not in the buying whenever he is now. I just got of it. We have to tell you we have an article coming up in our May issue by Jonathan Sham. about all the ways in which the United States is pushing Saudi Arabia away from an and trying to establish a more. It was all over. The world are hostile, but a more or less friendly, more sceptical attitude towards Saudi Arabia, from from where we were yeah trumps ears. that's right, it! It keeps habits. I mean why don't you get what you Europe in order to IRAN's recently written so exactly where you, but That's true its ongoing there were just some store.
About. How we're words, surprise is supplying satisfied with less military support. Still that brought the futile. Adele, ok anyway, I'm sorry I had to interrupt you know about. Since this is on my mind, because I was reading, I was proving the collie anyway, but by so Europe, but let's just to make your point, you were saying that you don't see the Biden. People are right. pollution rising policy for the already had Romania to argue with Jonathan he's, probably his eyes, not read and use my thing where he's not sing revolutionizing, I'm saying you're, saying they'll take what they art Plaza edge. I guess I don't see anything even resent remotely resembling the kind of naked house It is really interests in the region. Much less. The Sudanese, dates. Egypt, you Eddie, Saudi Arabia, obviously in Jordan and elsewhere that have gravitated
towards the sort of detente with Jerusalem in and too to the benefit of the United States. The United States, under Brok, Obama, was on the outside. Looking in on these developments under Donald Trump, it was very much an active participant in them. An intervention the region and middle eastern power which the United States is- and I don't see the bite, the ministration sacrificing those gains, maybe unjust. Maybe Jonathan has finger on the pulse more like what I think he's he's seeing it out hissing movements in the way in which the diplomacy functions, ah, I mean the glaring exception of our refusal to continue to assist in the prosecution of the campaign, on the arabian peninsula against the hoodie. That's that's ever made, however, with a negotiated settlement apparently, is also What realities is seeking, perhaps with a lot of foe
investments from Washington, but they signal of their interests were right anyway, but so keep rhyme. Iran and Biden Tony Blinkem End and all Because there is, there is stuff happening, even though I don T it looks particularly promising, but as as Noah says, you know if, if, if America want something Fear if you're in the negotiation, you really want something and the others. Doesn't necessarily wanted that much after all, around got hold of a hundred and fifty billion dollars that we were a that we were brought keeping from them, so they don't have that might they got their inducement to go in would deal without more bribes, isn't all that clear? Politically since we hear of the eye, and others say that they are backed up,
enriching uranium, which is their right. The deals the deal's dad, so they can do whatever they want. In that sense, You know it's just one of those things there to watch my way. I should add that term. Here we had my sister was he blew man. Why last week was at last week, Last week we were last to talk about what's going On the israeli elections and boy, is that getting crazier by the day, so you're interested in it. It appears that dumb, the President
a really redolent of of the country who is tasked with the job of talking, said everybody went when a government can easily be formed, or you know when a one party doesn't simply win, which has almost never happened. He formerly has to say, offer the right to to assemble the the government to what part the party he believes is the most likely to be able to do that and after observe two weeks, he finally said to be Netanyahu. Ok, you can form the first government in the question is, can there be only has fifty to see tee need sixty one and that the incredible oddity of the situation is that he can get seven to get fifty nine from his nemesis former aid not tally better, but that limit
leave him two or three seed shore. Then there is the incredibly bizarre possibility that he would need an arab Nationalist party of some sort need some kind of an hour party to go into government to get him over the hump. This would be the first time the narrow party was in the government and and that the idea, that is, that the EU and our party would be the kingmaker in Israel, with the whip hand over whether or not the government stands or falls with some is is, is pretty astonishing. So that's also something that's worth that's worth watch also worth the watch, our friends in the bonds and group and their daily news letter, the DC today got common their weekly newsletter dividend, CAFE: dot com, look how all the spending is coming down the pike we got this,
then it parliamentarian saying that basically Democrats can do whenever they want if they want to do it, and I guess the big question is whether this increasingly fantastic sense that we are on the verge of a massive economic growth spurt six to seven percent over the course of this year. A what are the prospects for overheating? What are the prospects were blooming inflation? What are those mean? you know in terms of investment strategies because they may be horrible macro economically. But of course there are opportunities in high and ended, and, as you know, Where do you go how to handle this? The interplay of politics and policy is the specialty of the bonds and group, which has two untold two point: eight billion dollars under management. The other day said it was like two point, five or two point: six and
I am and that's David Bunsen are from Larry COD low and end the here and their team, aware of but by coastal financial management people. So look to those DC today that they see today that come dividend cafe that come from the bonds and group, the antidote to the intellectual, spaghetti of the financial management services industries, and we thank the four sponsoring the commentary magazine, podcast Abe, you have a story that that really struck a story, an article in a pay out opinion, peace that struck Europe, fancy or enough. You thought was well worth talking about, an article by a rough now Raphael well from the Manhattan Institute, over at the hill. Or use. He talks about the rise in homicides in twenty twenty and he has
and he writes, though the final members won't be available for months criminologists estimate that twenty twenty will have seen for the first I'm since the mid nineties, nineties, more twenty thousand criminal homicides He goes on to discuss the proffered causes for this. Some experts. Him argue that the spike as a temporary side effect of the pandemic brought on by its economic impact, particularly with respect to unemployment, But this is intention he says with the broader data on violent crimes such as home size and economic indicators, which he's not reveal a clear relationship between the two in New York, for example, the poverty rate nineteen. Eighty nine the year before him Sides hit a record high, two thousand two hundred and sixty two is actually slightly lower than it wasn't twenty. Sixteen the year before big apple homicides hid a record low, two hundred and ninety two
and during the great recession, the national homicide rate actually declined by fifteen percent. Going from five point: seven one hundred thousand two thousand seven to four point: eight for one hundred thousand two in twenty ten A period in which the civilian unemployment rate rose from four point, six to nine point, three percent, so He argues instead that this has to do with a combination of factors relating to police and criminal justice. Witches listeners of thee, Commentary magazine? Podcast Knowest is this. You know something that we have been discussing at length. He. Says: recent years have seen a notable decline in the number of police on the be nice recent years he's not just talking about our posts. George flood universe in September, twenty nineteen
but the police executive research form outline what has declared a workforce crisis. Robust body of research is thoroughly illustrated that more police means less crime, a finding at odds with the ever hop ever more popular calls to define the police. And so on. So I think what s interesting about this is in part, as I say that this heap he beat pincers to something that began even before the calls to defend on the police, which makes me think that this is going to continue to get worse. Now that the police have been hobbled and are reticent to respond to crime and in so many ways than one is it perhaps the peace. Mrs, though, is that I think there is a pandemic, related aspects to the spike in violent crime. But it's not. It doesn't have to do with us
specifically with job loss or even primarily, with job loss, figure? Is this just the breakdown in norms and expectations generally and at times of just tremendous upheaval? This is, this is one of the things that happens is that people come out and take advantage of the disorders, generally but its, but I don't think the root cause. You know like us. Alexandria cause Cortez, it's from point over the summer tweeted out something women when they were like. You know looting going on. As you know, I don't know Luxury stores, people stealing. You know thousand dollar handbags and whatever- and she was talking about how this is a result of people needing to put food on the table. Since getting laid off his resolve and pandemic. I don't think that is all valid,
you know there's there is there were something interesting in that happened. Posts George Floyd that I think to apes prediction, which, unfortunately think is that this is gonna get worse before it's better, which is that a lot in a lot of very blue jurisdictions where there was a lot of activity in protest, and indeed from the police rhetoric and where the very liberal city councils in those cities embraced that they are one of the first things they did as a kind of token maneuver was to get rid of specialized units and in many places like Portland and and Seattle, for example, those were gun units, UNICEF that spend all of their time trying to track down and get off the streets alive. Legal guns, or they were homicide units that had special two special units that had that new the community and knew what was going on and were were pretty effective at keeping those numbers sound, listen as they disbanded those that stopped right and it put a lot more,
pressure on the non specialise beat cop, who has the kind of do a lot of things and nowadays produce pandemic end in cities like settle in Portland. A lot of mental health work actually is what they spend time on their be doing so. You added their burden. You do you take away the specialization and then You have no city counts, who's that are even even more extreme, completely saying defend the place which I think speaks to demoralization point that you mention it. You know we can't you look at the numbers. We have to think about the kind of culture that created in a society where people screaming and yelling and calling you a murderer and racist on a regular basis and a basis you happen to be a minority police officer you're getting even more abuse actually in certain here in DC for the last year? It's it's been terrible. Anti moralizes people in that profession understand they so and they don't. You know at a certain point. They say I am doing so. Nice supported by my elected officials, are not supported by me.
Community, the national media, kids calling me terrible and races what's the point, so that's it other long term crisis, it's gonna be face, is will at the more we need good law enforcement ardors convey to recruit and retain people to do that. And it's your hard crisis to hide, you know I mean cause, but is it it happens to people and they do not inclined to be quiet about it. You know you'll do it, it makes headlines crime make headlines and I'll make my perennial point, which is that the people who want the most law enforcement and needed the most are actually usually in in high cry you know low economic, often minority neighborhoods. In these large cities they dont want to defend the police. They want better trained police which is legitimate and fair, but they are not asking for fear. cops on their on their block at all. There. A greater sign of privilege, then be able to say, because you live in a while We save neighbourhood that we should define the police because they are a source.
For danger more than they are for good that you are you're in a quite excellent social peace, You can actually say that and believe it insane believe at an end. The problem, the problem there is that dumb, the Bell will eventually toll for you. It is the the. Low crime error in the United States. the reason that the stats were so low until the nineteen sixties was that stats were often not collected in the worst neighborhoods crime crime statistics in particularly in two or more in a racially divided, placing a Harlem South I've Chicago stuff like that day,
didn't aggregate, the crimes that's locally, and so, when they started to impart you know it was revealed that there were these were. These were things probably had a lot worse than we realized, but by them amid nineteen seventies as the crime spike was real everywhere. Everybody was unsafe a in cities, but everybody, everybody felt menaced cars. Broken into you know, muggings skyrocketed there was. There was very little security and so you can say now: ok, well, let's let let let's figure out how to handle this, because we know all the socialist so the justice and I dont really feel particularly threatened in seven years, formality how they feel, let's see what kind of fights they have or your arm you rallies they have because because they they they feel,
say from their interesting other their interesting cross currents here, the since the early. Ninety nine is the training of New York City police officers, as has been a remarkable achievement in in in teaching them professionalism and restraint. This was not true of the New York City Police Department in the Sixtys and Seventys. The police. It was a nap artistic organization. Jobs pass from. You know from Father to son, to grandson cops were often I'm very inspired to be policemen, except that there was the family job they like nine hundred and eleven policing cuz. They prefer to stay in their cars and not patrol and not, you know, get themselves crosswise of people and they pulled their guns a lot. They pulled their guns constantly and fire their weapons. A lot of one of the interesting things about New York,
It starts in New York. City is important because it, the crime drop in New York City, was responsible for half of the crime drop in the United States in the ninety. My these, just from that once you won't and York was not an aggregate, a particularly dangerous american city. That's the weird part is that it was so big like it was the tenth worst crimes in the United States, but because it was, you know, I ten times the size of the worst, which I think was New Orleans. Of course, the aggregate numbers were much larger, but they pull their guns lot. They use their guns a lot, and now they never pull their guns and the numbers of times that the police officer of might actually pull his gun in his career in New York City is like maybe one may be too HU, there almost no firing of weapons you know and that this is all training, but- and this is where it gets complicated. Rougher among whilst point starts getting interesting
that they were bad, but there was also an idiot logical war against the police in the 60s and 70s part of which you know was lead two hundred and ninety one on policing, which is where cops respond to crimes after they've occurred, rather than dealing trying to retard crime or interfere with crime before it starts, which of course requires a more active public presence, and that's where you get things like Aveeno beat cop who is nasty, people or does does terrible things, and so, and there was a lot of corruption is lie there. The nap commission in New York City went into the degree to which there were hundreds of millions of dollars of payoffs going to cops and all of that. So the police department has to go through this reckoning. It was bad, it was behaving badly. It was incompetent, wasn't very good, but was it good for the city that the cops came under assault like that? I mean this was a double edged sword, because you depressed them too, when you made them worse, cops, they became worse cops, not better cops.
Or a generation. Because of that assault- and this is exactly so- can police of the assets we better trained? Yes, can they behave? Can there can their interactions with civilians. Wherever they are in suburbs and cities, can they be better and they be more adapt. Absolutely we ve seen it happen. We ve seen at work does an assault them while you are saying they need to get better? Is that going to worsen the crime situation, those cities without question? We know this to be the case from twenty twenty We know to be the case now. My my colleague, Michael Goodwill, in your post, you have collected stats murderers up Fifty five percent in New York City over the past year shootings or up forty five percent, like these number, a wheel, and the point is that the base started rising. That from that, two hundred ninety number. Twenty ten crime has been
creeping up, that levels are very, very, very, very low in historical terms, but half percent jumps a year and its five years from now and they're gonna start being close to where they were job. Swim crime when hey work well, and there is a huge perception the problem here and the part of the public that spend five. Not just by activists but by the mainstream media and its focus on only on white police officer, shoots black perk right. This is this: is the story you're always hearing? This is really the only store that strong. We talk about police violence. It is vanishingly rare it's just extremely rare, and I know you know we ve had will rightly unused whose talked about this at length and he's written about it. You, but it's the important that a merit that perception shift needs to be constantly challenge, because when the public hearing, out any sort of interaction with the police officer that that he's in the death of a civilian, their job,
into an understanding that statistically not true and from a perception perspective. He's gonna continue to erode the cops ability to do their job. and certainly erode the prospect of any change. You want to see in the way policing as John says. Yes, of course, in the past you know there has been a police reform things and things of that nature in a culture where the all the police for hearing are, not not merely you know you need to do this. You should do this differently But you are the monsters of our society in part by virtue of what you chose to do with your life. and the professional activists class, particularly black lives matter. I'll, tell you here in DC any time there is an officer involved, shooting they assemble at them at the police station, where the cop was from and start protesting before, a single fact has been released. It did this with Dionne K. They claimed you
not in the back, we unarmed by a police officer. No, he was pointing his gun at a police officer, as you can see from the body, can flourish They assemble and start problems in the media comes inserts talking to all of them in all this stuff gets on the record before a single fact is released. That's now how these these occur and that also bad. We, the media, is incredibly irresponsible for amplifying that activists message uncritically The cops are not legally allowed to start releasing certain information. They have a process. They have to go through so there on the back foot, because there's no way for them to speak to the lies into the lies, had spread great now not grow in the way of grave cause. Involve the obviously we opposite of great, but I needed to say something because I need to talk to change topic.
And talk to you about your privacy cause. You know, private citizens used to be private. Another internet has made us all public. You know public in the sense that all everything you do everything you look at everything you tweet everything is concerts, data that are collected crawled through an aggregated by third parties into a permanent public record. And it's your record and it's there. so they can sell things to you and it also. Maybe, therefore, that four for others to start persecuting you having your private life exposed for others to see, was once something only celebrities about, but in an era where everyone is online, everyone is a public figure and so to keep your data private. When you go online, you gotta turn to express three p m One of the data points. That is, find he was your eye. The ip address on you're on your on your computer,
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Thomas had sold the most interesting liberal columnist in America because his column largely deals with social science. Research into a political behaviour m is very honest and forthright has a remarkable piece this morning that I need to. I had up and then it disappeared. Ok, here we go, are the fear that is shaping american politics. And it's interesting, because when I tell you what the topic is, you can say: oh no, another liberal here their car, you they go in here. They come witches wasting wider republicans want to restrict voting right so much so you can go from there and say this is unfair, but let me just go on with it wise determined to constrain the franchise, because republicans are worried about changing demographics, and it's this big number that we that we hear about that. We have by two
Forty five non hispanic, whites of all ages will drop under fifty percent of the. U S, population that we in twenty fourteen public's school students drop below fifty percent in the schools that make up about forty four percent now, whereas in ninety ninety five sixty five percent were white and he brings us up only to say that this notion that minority and crew sing them increasing minority. Well life and the increasing minority population are terrified to Republicans and they are constraining the franchise if that is what they are doing, not because they are racist rubber, because that this is that this is a political disaster. For them, and but there's a lot of data in here to suggest that this
population about what it means to be white has been, is being jimmied with, and it's a gimmick to say that that is, populations are becoming one already, because it's more likely the better descriptor is that the population, the United States, as was true with other, the groups in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries becoming more saturated is that there is. There are mixing between groups. Between whites and non white and all that and then the kids that other born of that can they can be declared. members of minority groups. They can also be white or there were or whiteness doesn't mean anything any more as category, because, basically we are becoming a heterogeneous, heterogeneous people a rapid clip and, as I said, this happened in the night
century an irish person was no more likely to marry and italian person than in the nineteenth he's. A black person was to marry a white person. These were distinct entities about an irish person, certainly wouldn't Mary somebody with an English sent. These were distinct populations that did not bland and now Is there any sense that there that they dont blend in twenty twenty one? Not to? I don't think so so it's a very interesting piece and it raises this specific question. Dont Republicans and you know the autopsy that was rejected by Trump and all that, for, I think, good reason. Political reason, TWAIN sixteen, but don't republicans need to say, ok, there's of coming political reality and what we it's! Those rigour how to talk to people who are not, who are not already with us in order about issues that that they care about that harmony,
as with our general ideological tendency, bring them along and break the democratic stranglehold on people who feel themselves. To be people of color minorities. All you gotta do is break it a little big enough to read break at the whole way and then generate of that as the generations pass things will get better as more people in these commute These are more divided or more be no ideologically impart an partisan terms heterodox than they are now. I gotta tell you. I share your esteem for MR at soul. I found this column to be a real mess on his part. It began as an exercise in question? Begging is the premise that it did not prove The notion that the dual peace is attempting to reduce, The exercise of the franchise should manifest in the rear, adoption of the exercise of the franchise weren't. ten years, fifteen years into the efforts to impose, for example, voter idea,
requirements in various states. We have not seen a reduction in minority participation, the exceptional twenty. Sixteen were we sort of return to pre posed Obama, status quo among african american voters. We have not seen a I turned down in voter participation this action on the part of MR at so that we have some sort of racial hostile, they racial anxiety. Here, I don't think he proved as a fair amount Academic gloss on his assumption here, more sending a normally get from people who make that argument. Nevertheless, it is the same argument and it is not compelling- and I just I found it to be an attempt really too. confirm. The biases The readership, but I dont think it proved it to anyone. The great at anyone, the sceptical of the premises. I am look I don't want to defend the notion that you know. Let me put it this way.
I know from conversations and things like that over the course of twenty years that you know like hard charging cynical, get out. Gadabout guys who do this for a living. Believe in voter suppression. They don't believe in it because they think it's good, they believe in because they it gets necessary, they believe in it as they think everybody does it many kinds of utter suppression negative advertising is a form voter suppression. No, it's not it's. Now I mean you're gonna habits. I understand you're trying to do here, but if we're gonna have a debate over terms, we I have a shared definition of those jobs. Now, but never let me let me when I mean is obtained the mindset of the political, professional. Ok, what they want to do is not only join up as much of their vote as they can, but figure out ways to depress the vote of the other guy. Ok and there's a and c
There is a continuum from Do things are bureau proffered, say things about the guide, the other guy in such negative terms that you're gonna get some of the people whom I vote for him to stay home Two, we gotta make sure to the extent that we can to limit to turn to try to interfere with his broad based turn out, because our turner, is it was broad based now I'm not saying that the I'm saying they're wrong. Here's. What I want I want to say is this: is this form of politics empowering to the political class, because. People who know how to do these sorts of things, the magicians of negative advertising or them generations of. voter laws that will
Somehow Mystic Lee help you and heard the other party ah get paid a lot of let me for their arcane wisdom. Their lawyers there make commercials they do this, do that that this is a big business, because if all your saying as what you really need to do is do more move Heaven and earth to get your turn to do voter turnout and to get more people to vote for you, because you are more persuasive, because you can reach across the aisle to people who are in your base and because you a really good at getting people to come out to the poles they that's. They think that all sentimental, hogwash and what's employ is pushing the other guy down into the garbage, can far enough, so that your head-
about a year ago, garbage can like Oscar the grouch in your visible and he's not and then, and then you went again what an idea. Sorry go as you say one of the things he raises, but doesn't really explore further, which I wish he had. Is it is a rebuke a little bit too that sensibility because it he's exploring this question. Will there be a kind of white backlash against some of the stuff that Joe Biden and the Democrats are trying to do and one of the one at the political side, see interview says something really fascinating, which is, if you like the way we sort of way those views of the fact that they will soon be. You know a this will be a majority minority country where You find isn't that that bothers them. In fact, even pretty staunchly republican white people will say what what the backlash is starts. The blue when there, when they feel They, as a racial group, are being directly attacked because the it's the end of its neutral discussions about think. So I think this is what
Actually, there is a huge risk for Biden going forward and the democrats- and we saw this from some of the results in twenty twenty and that's that the message of an hi racism, theory, critical race theory and equity verses. Quality that is gonna that backlashes already started. That is the message, not only white Republicans dislike, but some all businessmen in the Hispanic in the asian american communities, people who might not otherwise identify with you, no rich White Republican said in the country club? Will feel some sort of dislike the message saying that you know everything who isn't an african American is racist. You have to look at everything through a critical race theory lens for Asian Americans, in particular your only a member of our protected group when it suits us, but when you want to get into Harvard we're, gonna leave hang out to dry there, so many contradictions in the anti racism inequity messaging. That are just me, steamrollered by the Democrats and bind right now. That's where I could see a very low.
And multi racial coalition backlash happening in the future. I also think that it doesn't look this, stuff in Georgia, with the voter law that had ever met major League baseball pulled the all star game for a bill that, as came down the pike and, as it went through the process of going through the door, Your legislature became of affair the convention, all our voters in our voting sick early and effort to prevent voter fraud bill that mirrors things in it other states, with this particular in the same emphasis on this notion that it so horrible, because no one can go down, down the wine and give people water when they're, waiting and long lines you, how dare you not be able to give people water the act of preventing Campaigns from providing goods and services to people as they are waiting online to vote is a hunt.
year, liberal reformist plan that began in Chicago and spread outward and is, axiomatic to people who understand how voter fraud works. Voter fraud is give somebody somebody something when they're on the wine like five dollars in walking around money and then maybe they'll vote for you like that knots was to do that, and water is another version of that right. So Georgia does this. Joe Biden says it's Jim oh, they move the all star game. However George also the state where the arrears Version of the bill did have some extreme the questionable things that number one a number two where they just two months in which the in which some rapid, a relatively large number of Georgia, Republicans represented by a relatively large number of Georgia republican State. Legislators, Bali,
you ve got. The election have been stolen, falsely and believed all kinds nonsense and believed the Democrats have figured out magic. ways to steal elections, and that, therefore, all bets are off and you have to do what you can to keep them from going. This is a triumph of the democratic process that the bill that emerged and became law wasn't that bill, but it could have been that bill it's not like there weren't, a lotta Republicans wanted the bill to be that bill. That's it! This is it, and this is really annoying to me. Is that as a heuristic, the notion that we should evaluate the spill this bill through the prism of What happened in December and January Donald Trump efforts to to gain the system into force, Sir elected officials and state officials in Georgia to to hand him election somehow, and that we should.
You this law through that prison, and I I don't think that's. That's a flawed approach to this from a business, of ignorance and when you know nothing at all about the sort of thing anyone who just look at it as a yardstick. That's one way to do it, but we then we started getting fat checks. Then we started getting people who actually read the book. And the heuristic survives and people are still claim to it as though well on disregarding this factor him disregarding the text of this law, because Truth tells me something else right. That's nonsense, that's trash and when your feeding it to an audience that wants to hear that sort of thing, you're not performing journalism, now Someone very different we're talking unto tracks is, of course not a word that you said there that I disagree with on a talk about the mind set within the Republican Party and the conservative movement that somehow has come to acknowledge implicitly that the
their brutal idea, which is that they are inexorably, they are inexorably becoming the minority majority and that white people represented by the democratic public inquiry are becoming a minority and therefore all bets are off their coming. We have to fill out ways to stop them from coming. Rather than shifting your idea about what it is to win elections, because it so easy for so many Republicans to get elected, because there in these districts that are sixty, seventy percent people exactly like them, and so that's what they think an election ought to be. but you know for much of the twentyth century. That is not what elections work, and so they have to move away from this idea that if they can just combined this, a great source of giving up their base and figuring out ways to retard the other guys base. If they can
move away from that into a more law, a larger model of persuasion- and this is where trumps influence on the party is in. Which could be incredibly malign because, of course he went They based strategy and lost so therefore You should go. You know what it's not a good strategy right way, I'm gonna alien, everybody who doesn't like me already fine, and you will see if we can get got a lot more votes, but there were a lot more people voted against them. He lost he he tells them in a lot of them that he won there like none o, he actually really one so that the thing that should tell them, we gotta figure out a different way to do this, that they get to go back and rely on their comforting. I want to do the same thing that we were trying to do before long wanted, there's there's something that they can build on here regarding entrails column he's,
is it still says that Hispanics are driving the minority surge right in in population? This is very valuable and interesting information? Because what what has been done? traded in the last election- is that these sort of what understanding of how Hispanics vote is lately off the mark. and there is a lot more conservative support among Hispanics then people had assumed, and that, and that would actually I think, I'm also militate against what the actual argues is this fear. I mean on the right. There is There is reason to be hopeful about about arising hispanic american population and had so notes, which is something that Nikkolon had written about as early as twenty fourteen and I've been watching onto for a long time, racial characteristics, racial self identification is if
Blue condition the changes over time for a lot of people lot of Hispanics that that till the senses taken? Twenty ten that identifies as hispanic identify as white and twenty twenty that's that's observable and it has allowed to do more with socio economic conditions than it does racial conditions. We when you talk about races, though it's an immutable characteristic, which is something that the intersection left loves, it just simply a true right at the opera mutable characteristic as it can be mutable Gimme mutable by marriage. You are one race, you married many have another race. You have children, those children are not. Despite the efforts have been I'll, find authenticity- and I think that that whatever they are, they are not purely one thing. The other, not even some assassination and we're just talking about people who identify as one ethnic group in one decade and another and another because a cap
There's no one stopping you, but you know to two aims: point not that I, these numbers are very small and their only suggestive of the future, but in the top twenty five districts where Hilary, where the margin from Democrat to Republican shrank most radically when it was of deserts, have when for Hilary but moved significantly towards tromp or went for tramp of those twenty five districts. All twenty five were majority, his back twenty five out of twenty five. So those numbers
You know some of them. Some of those countries are really small. You know, like their countries like four thousand people on the inner along the Rio Grande, you know what were you saw that bizarre shift? You know we're. Suddenly Trump got sixty percent vote when he had got thirty percent in other legged. Sixty sixty percentage point shifter whatever was, but I think that is suggesting something, and the question is: do you with data like that or information like that? Do you, double down on the do you say: ok, this is a fertile fields to plough. Or do you listen to that guy who comes to and says? I really know how to make sure that a lot of those people aren't gonna vote. If we do ex wines, and I'm just telling you know from the time I really are paying attention to politics in the in the in the mid nineteen eighties, that is a voice.
In its way. I had I disagree with that: their assistants, profound distinction between suppression and depression, wise legitimate, the other, is not one of court. While it's right Legitimate interest can be self defeating right. No words like negative, advertising is legitimate and it had has had very good concept. To some extent for people who have used deployed it successfully. But if you think that that's the sea, Britain were winning arrays. You know you watch those horrible, I mean you know you got that thing. Who had these horrible adds all over with set. It adds in the south and everything and and and and Everything some remain pretty much as it was. So. Let me just I talk to you before we go about the Ex chair. The desk chair the wonderful desk chair with that variable lumbar support and the new ex h empty technology that provides eat. Massage
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Transcript generated on 2021-07-28.