The podcast today examines how Joe Biden came out and calmly said he'd be president soon and didn't much care what Donald Trump was doing—and three seconds later the political world had a collective nervous breakdown over a weird series of firings and new installations at the Department of Defense. Biden wants to cool things down, but he seems to be the only one. What's going on here? Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily podcast today is veterans Day, Wednesday November eleven, twenty twenty, I'm grandpa towards the editor of Commentary magazine with me. As always senior writer, Christine Rosen. I Christine Hygiene Executive Pause, editor, Ringwald, hi, hi, hi pause, John, As I said guys, I wanted to read to you something
It's been a week more than a week. the political context it was still owe tromp. What's it doing traveller their firing, people at the defence carbon, oh, my god, tromp it. What are you gonna do and wire the republican centres denouncing trumpet wise and everybody saying to drop and trumpet, the Trump an hour yesterday you and I both watched Joe Biden- ends a press conference and all of the questions were: oh, my god. What are you gonna do they're? Not yet the g essay is and can I pressed the button that lets you? Do you get your prayers? and shall daily briefing than this is terrible. And what about that? And how did by what was binds general response I was really can't glorious to watch because it contrasts so strongly with the constant fever pitch
In our own social media, on the centre left in bed pages even on the right and that the Trump skeptical right who are saying, without with some justification, that the incoming administration and the transition period, which, by the way again where a week into so relax but the transition periods to begin as soon as possible. We talk yesterday about the ban, roads, nine, eleven thing and how that's you know: it's a threat to national security and that's not completely irrelevant, although its again it's a week and the questions were listened g, I say is in freeing up all this money for further transition that these documents are locked up in not getting a President daily briefing argue concern. Angolan goes now we're we're pretty good they're moving along. I don't really need them. We don't need the money. The transition is functioning smoothly. The presidential daily briefing would be good, but there's time so I'm just gonna relax and you know you felt a little bit of the air. Let out
the balloon and the constant state of agitation in social media in particular, but then it filled itself right back up because they really just enjoy the state of agitation. There really psych too, anxious all the time. I started writing a let them down, and we said before me, recording at a certain point, this segment of the political populations. Gonna start to resent Joe Biden for failing to read, the force, the manic hysteria to which there clearly wetted- is that line from gladiator right. It's like are you not entertained Trump has caught, has given all sides of the of the politically engaged american public sphere
here. If sphere sphere can have sides from all sides serve like endless hours to our things, to obsess over and Biden as clearly decided or chose or come to the conclusion that his special sauce is that he is not going to do that in all the jokes over the over the two weeks worthy action. That Biden was putting a lid on at nine o clock in the morning. We know When I was in my twenty Ronald Reagan was president that I briefly went to work for him. Reagan would make public appearances twice a week three times a week, mostly, he was in sight The White House doings
stop privately gave a couple of speeches a week. Didn't talk to the press, didn't give interview, didn't that was the normal way in which the presidency function sort of like Hollywood in a different era when part of Dar Power meant that you were inaccessible event that you could only be seen when you want to be seen the moments when the moon- became out or some other than that you were on your mountain top in Utah or you were somewhere else. You were very rarely photographed. You didn't do a lot of public appearances. You didn't go and talk shows now, of course, reverse, like stars already instagram five times a day and Trump was on Twitter twenty times a day and by seems determined, at least in the short run, to reversing field here and going back to a different way of pursuing the presidency.
Worked or or being the leading public figure in the United States. and there is. There are withdrawal, symptoms breaking out all over all of reserve the world, the orbits around political power in the United States briefly Yanina. Nobody thinks a Joe Biden is gonna, be the second coming of Coolidge here right he's not going to administer this presidency from behind a veil but at the same time there's no call around him. Doesn't even a lot of enthusiasm, around them. He certainly doesn't it. Messiah Complex, which is a departure from the last twelve years of politics, which is why they're trying so desperately to force Camilla Harris into this round hole. She's and George, is uniquely ill suited you all right. She wants a cheese. Certainly will she wants it, but sharing It'll lifeless speaker as up as a political talent, its she's.
Doesnt have a whole lot to suggest that she's particularly competent in that role and they need it. They needed to be that, and I don't think she's gonna she's gonna help achieve that objective. I have a depressing prediction: yes, despite the fact that by clearly doesn't want to feed the hysteria, the historic will, in the end, absolutely prove capable of feeding themselves, so I think ultimately, the predictions about how, in the long term, temperatures will cool with Trump out of the White House. I dont see that I think I think there is too much of a network of hysteria in play right on both sides and- and we know the appetite is certainly there and they can whip up over. Or any issue any incident. Anything you you'd they'd,
actually need a figure in the centre of at all to do with it all up not only suffer, the changing financial incentives. Even bearing now with binding to what things were like upon the bomb was extremely: he angered the press all the time by not allowing access. You would only allow one photographer into the White House to follow him around who knew made him. Look like you know Jesus. So it's that doubt really frustrated report is now they're frustrated that binds kind of shifting back into that sort of mode. But in fact, the incentive financially for places like the New York Times for certainly for the cable networks and the social media. Companies is constant outrage, you actually need you need the hate clicks. You need the anger clicks, because that is what feels you're your business model and to feed that point. You know, o bomber kept floated personally floated
the news magazines for a couple of years, as they were in their decline. You may remain For that I think Newsweek put Obama on its cover twenty four times in the year, two thousand and nine. So that news we guessed So we became like Oprah magazine over magazine, which were the only cover. Model of upper magazine was Oprah and she wouldn't appear another magazine cover since she owned run magazine and obviously having her on a magazine cover sold the magazine, and so she was every every magazine cover oh sold Newsweek so well that they just found any reason to put him on the cover and Trump has the same effect
negatively and positively. You know you release a book about Trump itself, two billion copies, mostly its its negative, but so in publishing. The New York Times is now about seven million digital subscribers, its grown a hundred percent since Trump came to office and no one's potent Biden on the cover of a magazine twenty five times next year, that is not who he is. That is not what he promised than that has not. Who is going to be so yeah? We are gonna, have a kind of perpetual outrage machine that is going to create then dump celebrity sort of like it did in the Trump arrow who were not trump. You know I mean we had all the naughty and, stormy Daniels and who were who else that good, that you know that rose like a rose to the height of acres and then flew from
close to the sun burned out there, but they also have a whole lot of back benchers eager I mean you had the squad which which dominate alot of magazine covers you. You have Stacy Abrams there. There are plenty of people on the left. You wanna do what Obama did for all these outlets and will actually because, but the question is whether the press is gonna wanna. for that site, because that's in fighting there's a lot of in fighting, and that disrupts the narrative about about progressive ISM in the left that they want to pursue. So it'll be interesting to see. Right again, I think you know how, if you're of a certain age by which I mean over fifty years, like that, and you now and granted these magazine- some really count anymore. That much, but you go to a Superman. check out and their views of the people and the US in star in other curve tabloids
and I dont know who anybody is any more like take Europe, it's it's a joke, as I was among the most literate people in the world of pop culture. our baggage that has ever lived on this planet and it can be like you know, Francesca, divorcing, Pablo and I'm like who are Francesca public like that They are well known enough that there only their first names are on the covers of this of STAR magazine, and I dont they are there. Probably there their house fix or uppers and on and you know idea why that work or there are real housewives, Puss Quasi Idaho. I have no right in that. Worse than that, they rested solely on Instagram right when it ok we could be very much in this realm in politics, because what they ve done here is manufacture pseudo star.
That literally have no. I mean this is also of like the car dashings, but you know degraded them, degraded and degraded. The people who are famous for being famous scenario, people who really are famous, who are famous for being famous- and this could happen in politics to you- know in which you? like I say you serve, have this the phenomenon of the Michael Avenue Naughty for three months becoming some kind of world historic figure, and then basically ending up. If he is an already go, into jail you now because he flew cuz. He cuz. He emerged in such a way that the people were like? Oh really, oh, you want to be famous. You owe me ten million dollars that you have been stepping out on or something like that, so the average machine is going to need people, but it's not go, of the same quality, because it is gonna start feeling manufactured. I think this is why we are seeing the less right CNN had a new one. Yesterday, where was the list of all the senators republican senators who had not yet official?
he congratulated binding, so the delay making is an effort to try to fill that voice because they know Trump is gonna, be gone, so they need new village. We need a new villain and Mcconnell, has been a kind of children. For them for a while, but he's not really up to that role, I either so I am afraid I will be really interested to see the New York Times, in particular when its digital business model looks like in two years, if they can maintain the number of outrage clicks and how they can affect their coverage, as it already clearly has in terms of ideological conformity. Ok, so far and lighted it we're we're. Seeing here is a religion this desire not to move on but to remain in this. You know, sir, social media boil perpetual boil. That we have now seen in the last twenty four hours, with the perplexing behaviour of the trumpet administration in relation to the defence department, replacing leading officials and putting an act. officials and there's this
Why are they doing? Oh, my god, this is all the others. Two months left, two months. That's so obviously, someone's taking revenge against people that wounded them, r are or injured them. Something like that. Maybe they're gonna dig dig through the files to see if they can find evidence of the deep state. So, they can release to solve drums grievance, but they're really that much that they were going eight weeks, honest the God. There is much they can do, except european competence at a moment and cases of crisis than then we will have literally and not not. I think that there was any particular reason to think that Mark Esper was wildly competent or something like that, but you know if they the fires: Gina Haswell at sea I Amy fires Chris read that that the F b I then they'll be headless while so who care
like they're, not gonna, be rubbing the place. Every one of these people is gonna, be out at noon. On the twentieth of January frog marched out of the building if they haven't left on their own. It's not it's. It's not a completely dismissal. Prospect, but it is entirely hypothetical, but so much of what we're talking about is entirely hypothetical and unless treated as eventuality in imminent eventuality your dismissing it unfairly and unjustly and in a way that exposes your. I guess, sort of Europe fealty to trumpet never actually expose like now is the time when everybody be jumping on the tramp tramp right at the nature of his political influence, all the sudden, these people, who are, why are saying calm down are being taught you like an hour. When I look at you defending trumpet this protection, so in such a dangerous moment like anybody, has any fealty to this guy now
seen from down now you are supremely principle. No, but there are plenty of people were fealty to him. It's as Rico and what they could just went to the defence department and its Are we Tatar whatever the hell? His name is went to the defence Department and it's it's this guy Makin tee who, who is now had a presidential personnel whom John Kelly had marched out of the White House, because he was a gambler and had an apparently had people circling around. landing that he pay them back his gambling debts. He is a thirty year old lunatic. You know, former Third Rank College football player, so Trump likes him
because he's athletic letter. So now he's they had a presidential personnel and he's the one who like firing agency, heads to put people and maybe just a goose their Reza may so they can say they were acting director of HIV or something like that. So yeah there are loyal people to Trump, but you know I was gonna use an analogy. I dont want to use because it now making a movie analogy, not acres article analogy: ok, I'm making was right clear. This is other historical analogy cause. I don't know what went on there, but it's like the guy. is in the scene, in downfall, in the bunker, trying to explain that no the war is not gonna, be one. You know at the people who, at that that's whose land
then they are all firing, everybody else, and none of it is gonna matter again, not a historical analogy. A movie seen analogy, I'm saying the seventy times, so nobody says I was guilty of evil historical. Our Jason was not a meme analogy. Really it's that yet it's a meme analogy right: yeah figure like regular regulate anyway, so I don't know what's going on the fence department, but I do know that anything that can trigger both never trumpery, then the people, the liberals and am every hysteric into thinking that their winding up for the coup is good for at least two is of twitter. You know behind justness, and I you know it's like enough for it I'll find so go ahead. You people go ahead. Most of the rest of us
I heard of it like that's part of what the election was about, we're tired of it. I don't. I hate disciples because and we're going to get into this illuminate but pulls up. So incredibly lopsided numbers, I think you know, will tend to be portraying things accurately if the numbers are like eighty, twenty. so the first major pulling it. We ve seen of attitudes in America after the election by Ipsos and AP, says that eighty, some odd per cent of people believe that I don't believe that Biden was fairly elected and seventy two percent of them think that Trump should concede and go away. Ok, that those are good number I mean I don't know they. Probably them asked this question in twenty. Sixteen about Hilary and
I've been all that, but they could have, and you know there could very easily have been very similar numbers them. Of course, they're gonna be twenty five percent of people who say it's all rigged against me that that's the nature of of how things are, but the truth is that if you look at this and you think it's measuring something real in american sentiment, everything that is going on now with that he has to conceive wisely conceding another Republicans or they will die. They will do you no is, is not being reflected by the common sense of the electorate, which is like there was an election Biden. One trump lost, I we know by one and trumps should concede, and large numbers, like massive numbers of people, seem to feel this way So everything that we are seeing on Twitter is garbage like theirs we're coming tonight chattering over that twenty percent. Right, as being you know, I mean it's a small, it's not a rough, but it small, but they could do a lot of damage if they dont sharer, r, r R.
firstly understand reality and then you know people come out and say: well, there was this. You gotta, pull after twenty. Sixteen, the showed like sixty six percent of Democrats said that they, Russia, change, votes, there was only eighteen, twenty and twenty eight either way. Another didn't believe that it was just tribal signifying was in group signalling here, but they could. Greater in some ways it doesnt matter whether they believed it or not. That's and, more importantly, the say brother, and it's like no trumps shouldn't concede, say: twenty eight percent of the public wealth You know what twenty percent, the public think that you know thirty, one percent of Jews believe in the divinity of Jesus. According to appeal, I mean you know like somewhat like that doesn't in that country, I think the confusing thing is that Trump has always been the represented, the twenty percent of its right, like that. That was what was unusual about him at for winning got election. That's usually what you see in a free
candidate somewhere else or like some weird local official he wine and he actually represents a version of the tinfoil hat wearing you conspiracies. Go to and always has been a mean he was abusing Obama. Bertha, I mean this. So but what was once set so seldom menacing and even potentially dangerous is now humiliating, is unclear. I ABC Washington, Post, pulls quote produced. Possibly illegal suppression, pole just before the election, suggesting that these poles or illegal desperate well. The projection of impotence is unbelief right. Well that- and that was you know, Biden
Yesterday, Biden a Blunderer for decades, who managed to put his foot and mouth and say the wrong thing. Biden asked this question. Yes, they laughed and said: how do I put this delicately? I don't think this is going to be good for the president's legacy and he said it an embarrassment and then he said I don't exist it good for the presents legacy. That's where eighty turned the heat down and be he put a ship is right in two trumps back in exactly the right space which is or the other way of looking at. It is trumps, a balloon and he a little hole in it and the air is just gonna come out because
along with this, data, is not set, as that is not a delicacy of approach that I would have expected from binding again is a demonstration that how he has behaved for the last eighteen months. It's very considered and studied as part of a very long term plan. Now it's if it ends one. He doesn't have Trump as a foil or as the negative counter example, and he actually has to go. nor do whatever it is he's gonna do. But you know the first thing I thought was interesting was. All we been talkin about over the past week is Trump's feelings, Trump and Trump is the conceiving. Why is it? Is he crazy? Is he doing something interesting, blah blah Blah
Joe Biden is seventy eight years old. He has wanted to be president. Since he was six months old. He ran twice. He had to quit the first time because he was caught played rising. He got one percent the second time he was old fast, namely how nowhere into the vice presidency. He was now effectively allowed to run and twenty. Sixteen, because Obama made a clear you wanna Hilary run, he gets there, he threads the needles through twenty nineteen and twenty twenty. This is one of the great personal triumphs of our taught results, always of incredible personal, DR only forty five people before him up and press the United States. This is an incredible personal triumph and there was an on his face and in the ears of me in his approach, a determination to enjoy what happened to him and every
Who else in this world is trying to turn this into a nightmarish DIS Toby in situations in which Trump will be in the wind will have to be dragged out by the military and this in that and buds in their saying I did it. I, I am to the top of the greasy pole. No, I never thought it was gonna. Happen Oh my god, this is fantastic It is our priority. No one is excited about it right, but his own party, even his own party, is letting them enjoy it. A little bit like they're all they're, all living in the din of their all living in the abusive, from their own still well, then washing and use of relationship smile and the election produced.
The sad unsatisfying results results if you're on the left, the left lost, the right didn't win, but the last lost and the parties of the left, particularly among the activist class in the act of his class, dominates the press. So all the messages you hear from Democrats are subdue, kind of disappointment and by no means enthusiastic about Joe Biden, which isn't reflected by the way of the electorate? The electors seems relatively satisfied with, of course, the course of events and in an on last Tuesday, but in the press and the other opinion making class there really disappointed in this election results and Joe Biden business. All us, ok, so right so he gets no
he doesn't get to have any fun, but he is apparently gonna have fun and they don't have to find an that's fine. No one! No one is gonna have fun. The only people are going to have fun are the consultants who make five hundred million dollars off the Georgia Senate, Braces speaking of which so we have an entire political prognostication data driven class pollsters and pull analyse in particular. Not and it's because pundits don't make their bones in a pot with. Basically we are, we exist in the free market. You want to listen to us to go ahead. You don't want to listen to us. Don't you know when people say things like? How can you, after you made a mistake like this? How could you ever It's like I'm, writing again. Listen.
don't you know putting stuff out there. If you want to pay attention, you can, if you dont, you don't but people who supposedly are experts in elections, experts in public opinion, research experts and other such they. They sell hundreds of dollar a year subscriptions to their news letters they day they produce reports for which there pay tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, and all of that and their entire profession is now an existential risk, and I want to quote just one thing: so a guy who's been around like four four at thirty forty years, Charlie Cook of the Cook political report put out his analysis after the election now Charlie Cook has literally been his entire business is predicated on
making predictions about how elections are going to go based on polling and if what he gathers from private sources, and whenever and in this election in particular, who boy did he get everything wrong? He had Biden getting three Biden getting three hundred and fifty electoral votes he had there was a impersonally or co political report. Well, it's a long term and explicit locally, as he is the cook political report. So I don't care whether was impersonally or not it's his name. Okay, so they had Republic Democrats winning fifteen the fifteen states in the house, and they had a Amy, to ninety percent chance or something of Democrats, whipping Senate, ok sounds like alone,
right out of this right. Look an insult and thinking chamber, so they got every thing wrong everything wrong! Okay! So now this is the first report after the election. Does he say? Oh, my god, with that everything wrong, we really need to examine our priors. We need to do this. We need to that. are. We just goes on. I just goes on the way always goes on in this town of absolute assurance. So, but he says we're quote: we are going to be unpacking this by four killed election for a while, but so far too things are clear. First, both party basis turned out to a massive degree. Second, there was little ticket splitting, depending on what happens in Georgia, looks like only one state main voted for one party for president and the other for the: U S, ok, a first of all, depending on what happens in Georgia. There are two seats up in Georgia and it is almost a certitude that
Biden prevails, which he will cause these fourteen thousand votes ahead. They just ordered a hand, a manual hand recount of the state and when that's over Biden will be certified, the victor, But it is almost certain that at least one, if not to those seats, is gonna flat bright. I mean I anyway can't say that for sure, but let's just say it's assert so personal, it's not one state its two, where the senators are gonna flappy below he look at. Second of all, there was little ticket splitting. Are you crazy? There was little ticket splitting how on earth where we were looking at California, where a bunch of how seats flipped from back from abruptly no Democrat back to Republican in a state that binding one by two thirds, they highlight five million right and by two thirds
and including in these districts that he prevailed over Trump and in a couple of these districts, and we have the existence of these three liberal referenda that were championed by democratic constituencies right. This anti anti affirmative action referendum and anti gig worker rougher random, that was supported by unions and an anti were in it and it and a red control referendum that was opposed by saying people and all three of them lost at an inn. Let's say
a Pennsylvania, so our friend Harriet and who has been on the pod constancy and then said the thing about Pennsylvania, the dupe he did well outside the presidential race in the house raises the GNP candidates are getting hundred and seventeen thousand more votes than the democratic candidate. That's ticket splitting presidential race was just different, says: Harry lots of potential GNP. Voters just couldn't stomach trump that
ticket splitting soap. Hologram is worded Senate candidates. Almost all of them ran ahead of Donald Trump out, not all of them, probably about half of the Senate candidates on the democratic side, underperformed Joe Biden right now. I dont want to just pick on Charlie Cook, I'm using him as representative of how we have had an event here, an extremely interesting, very complicated election and everybody in the world of reporting end prognosticated, and all of that is just gonna. Try to snap back to where they were on November. Second, and they really really really shouldn't because the polling in particular I'm gonna, keep hammering this of hammering this.
You can say: oh look to George Appalling ended up getting it exactly right, but there's Poland all over the board, indifference in different places, all over the country that got it wrong in Arizona. They got it wrong. In Wisconsin wrong in Ohio. They got it wrong in Florida. They got it wrong in North Carolina a wrong in Maine. They got it in Annabelle Iraq. That's there's! No geographic, there's, no connection! There's none! These states have nothing in common whatsoever, except to major things one. There is clearly a shy trump phenomenon that we don't, understand yet or don't understand where how it expressed itself. And the other is that they stink at what they do. They stuck in twenty sixteen
and then they stunk in twenty twenty and because they did okay in twenty eighteen, supposedly they fixed what they stung cat and it turns out they stunk up the joint again and guess what they stunk it up. In twenty fourteen- and they stunk it up in twenty twelve And worse still supposed to listen to them and the people who make their money interpreting them, who have to defend the essential existence of this industry because it's how they make their bread and butter? Now very honest person is very honest- may count at the New York Times who who was the serve director conductor, where the coordinator of the poles of the New York Times did we see at college?
has a very heartfelt peace today in the New York Times. It says we got everything wrong, I'm not sure where we go from here, but that's not what made silver saying it's not with Charlie Cook is saying, and it's not what everybody who has gone to twitter this morning to say this pulse as that there's a pull this as the other thing. The exit polls say another thing: how do we trust the exit polls, the examples of exactly the same weaknesses as the regular Paul's? They involve asking people a lot of questions and there is therefore I assume on people who want to sit around and out and be an answer, a lot of questions, and we don't know where those people are and if you take that data and then you supposedly massage it so that it reflects the demographics of the election. You are, then, spoke to use it, but it's bad and then of course, what people say to me as I've been asking them
that. This is what are you gonna? Do we need some kind of data, but that was my question. What is the, turning to the recitals. I mean you have focused groups, but they cannot be scaled up to to make projections about the Brunner Electorate, although they good one can give you a lot of insights into shifts that are occurring that aren't, captured and broader polling pulling. But what's a politician? who wants to run in a purple district to do I mean they need. They need some sort of abstract sense of where the people it is ever district are when they start a campaign and whose what's the altar. If two paulie I mean I'm asking, because we're like early boy only is not going away is not going well I'm not saying me refine work, but it's no! It's like saying you had a bunch of car accidents this year we
of course nobody. I know, they're all turn it's not it's like saying they used to use copying. you're tuberculosis and leeches to cure blood diseases, and we don't who had any more because the cure was worse than the disease, honestly Our data would probably come from our technology platforms, but they're not sharing it. I mean the kind of road kind. Your emotional calibration that they can contract in real time would be goal to a candidate in a campaign without which would only ask which would be worse now, I think right, Language is black. Cambridge analytical, No one denies that obviously didn't have our daily didn't. Okay, so here is a way of looking at it, which is that, instead of asking
you prefer this guy. You barely heard of her that guy you barely heard of what you can do with polling is: ask people if you can figure out who they are and what it isn't there saying you can try to ask people questions and then use the terms that I discussed earlier, which is find out what the great majority of people think about certain things, because if you have two slash three that think x, if there's a giant error in one direction, you're probably still pretty much in the ballpark. But if somebody says look, forty two percent of people think this, but thirty eight percent of people think that so the forty two percent is really that's going to drive the entire conversation screw that that kind of fine tune sensibility from these numbers from people who are not themselves living politics or
the other stuff every day. That is snake oil. I think there's another issue here. That's been left out of the discussion which is up. It's not just the polling methods are faulty because the errors swing in one direction. It speaks to obviously kind of biased but an expression of a disconnect, but once again between the institutions, people right I mean they. They there's a mistake. There there their missing the fundamental character of a huge swathes of Americans in the end there and and they keep missing the same swath right. So when Trump in this weird way says the poles or suppression poles, what he is
trying to get out because there really are suppression poles that used to be called push poles. It's when people called it out. The famous one was like in two thousand when people called in the guise of being pollster and copy the vodka in death after a wanderer, wasn't say it. How do you know they? Can I ask the appalling question: would you support John MC and if we knew that he had a black daughter, you know that kind of thing. That's that's what we used to be called a push: polar Suppression, Paul, like it's a way of getting information into the body politic in this kind of creepy way, with your hands off,
At an trumps ideas to say the polls that said that he was losing by ten, you know we're suppression Paulson. They kept enough people away from the polls that he didn't when I think that that is a preposterous conclusion to draw from the results of the election when he had when, as appears to be the case, his turn out went up substantially. You know, went up thirteen percent or something like that. He is in a bad habit
eighty one and eighty two million votes trunks can end up with seventy five billion. He that sixty three million last time, how many more votes do you think he's gonna generate with forty eight percent? Forty seven forty eight percent approval ratings when he's generate em in that he he he did what he needed to do. He turned out voters incredible numbers, but his negative example turned out a bunch of other people and they turned out their people also, and you could just as easily say if it looks like the guy I am voting for, is gonna win by seventeen. The hearing was constant and I'm a Democrat I dont have to go to the polls. I don't have the bother. This is boring, I'm just gonna stay home, so this is a. But the whole point here is that yet poles are weapons. Are tools are bar, are tools for persuading journalists. What
however, we had a frame things and do stuff like that, and then they provide a distorted picture of the electorate and there needs to be a different way that they are used. They need to be used to gauge large scale. Opinions in large bore because any any effort to fine tune this too You know yes or no propositions that arm. very, very, more have very marginal differences is in sage at there's, also Armenia. Another part of the picture here is that part of the reason why people said become so dominant in the discussion of politics. Is that we ve lost things like small local newspapers that used to cover the local issues in the local news in a way that would occasionally, in an election year, filter up only when ghetto national pulp political correspondence would parachute for a few weeks to hang out a new Hampshire. I were Wisconsin and we did. We
a lot less than that on the ground, local reporting any more, and so there I mean it's understandable that you would turn to some other way of looking at things he talked a lot about the pulling in the wake of the canosa Edison and destruction- and I will we all Late much much later got some local reporting on the ground and then actually some of the local reporters inclination were doing good job of it. But that used to be the Andrew and now that's actually the exception in a lot of these communities. Another another question that you could you away you could look at. It is to use. Hollywood is an analogy, so the fame thing is like Hollywood you ever HU, the and Hollywood always insist on spending more if it. If it likes the project, it will spend more on it and it should enable like try to hire a star, because the idea
a star is insurance, but a stars, never insurance like if you actually look at it there, like two people who actually put you know, you can depend on at any given moment to open a movie and help make it ahead and, generally speaking, it doesn't work and the star system doesn't function. Well, it's not insurance that the movie will do well. It is ensured,
for the souls and psyches of the people who are making the gambling decision to put their chips on this movie and make it to say that their they feel like their risk, is lowered as they're doing it, because they're they're making this choice that will help them. It's took its to make them comfortable psychologically. Similarly, with polling, somebody wants to run on axe and if they can just get a pole that says that that's a good thing to run on, then it's easier for them to do it. There less scared of it and then the so says come in and say no to use this word this word. A softer that word is is meaner. This word is better. We ve tested it. We can prove it to you through testing, because they don't have a feel for.
They don't know how to sell things and all of that, whereas classic politics is about long term persuasion and making good arguments and trying to convince people through arguments and results right to how does a powders had its trump end up at you know getting forty seven percent of the vote when he was had gotten forty five last time or something like that results. That's what people are missing. You got results like they, they felt better than they felt that are often they were four years ago. They there Their stock profiles went up, they had more disposable income until the pandemic and they didn't blame themselves. They didn't blame him for the pandemic. He had results to run on now, he's screwed up because he didn't run on his results. Well, he didn't know how to do it because that's not his bailiwick, but but in the end you run and how you do, then you run you viewed deploy or issues only Robin Hood
Doing you see how it how it goes polling, isn't gonna change any of that. That's a delusion of fantasy of private that provides false security. It provides for security. It makes you less anxious, while you're in the. If you're a Democrat, how good were you feeling you know in August and September you're, probably feeling pretty good, then you started getting nervous because some thing in everybody's psyche said: there's some little hanky going on here. I don't know, and then another Paul would come in. That said, yes, he is. I had ten percent ten points in Wisconsin you're like. Then there were like all of you check out. You know. then they need another one, because they get nervous again, and you know what they were nervous for a reason, but this is also gonna play out in a way and already is among the Democrats about policy setting in policy making, right because you see in the programme said, sir? Now double
down on the idea that the american people actually do want their agenda and even though there is like a lot of competing evidence, that's not the case in them them. The clearest evidence is the way people voted in this last election there stood there were lying. on poles, broad polls that say Medica falls popular you, no more govern invention. The economy is something people one. So I feel like aid if they are weapons in tools thereafter are you gonna, it's gonna gonna be mutually self assured destruction if we keep using them in the same way, so I agree with no they're, not gonna go away, but how, as Americans trying to figure out what matters and, what's going on in our politics, how not not hung about consultants, not time by the Kennedys. How do how does the average American who wants to follow is going on in politics know what to believe Well, because you should believe what you believe, but
to believe in terms of what their elected leaders are telling them the rest of the country believes you don't owe me in a minute where I feel like when I see goes on in May you know and Instagram video and goes on and on about. You know all the things that people like this: a huge swathes of young people who listen. her believe everything that comes out of her mouth there, but to test against what that belief feels like she's, a very curious. Panic individual. She then goes her parting says yeah. She look all my followers believe this year. These pull here's one or two poles at the Justice Democrats conducted for her. That say, you know, Progressive ISM is ascended, but it never rate I've. Actually I think I mean to the extent that pulling reinforces group think that good let a blow up- I mean you know, but here's my point so throughout the summer and the fall we were standing here saying this is to fund the police. Is gonna hurt the Democrats and then a we come out.
That said now, and then he would say, these rights are gonna, hurt the Democrats and then pulls would come out and they would say no one's changing and no one's owens changing then election happens and the Democrats have a call and everybody in the district, does like what are you? What are you people doing to me? What did you do to me with your area to fund the police stuff? This was killing me. How did we not not? We knew it was true, but words being told by suppose it social science that it was not at that as a very interesting because it was a delusional, a fact. It was some kind of group delusion caused by badly gathered information and shall science fiction. Basically, they seek net that seem to somehow asked the questions in the wrong way. If they weren't literally distorting it to create a pull,
the correct answer for you. But that's that's right! That's the answer and that's the shy trumpeter effect where you can't fix this industry. If you can, generate honest responses, but we don't know that they could generate honest responses we want to learn when it comes to re write you didn't do have some evidence to suggest that is not the case. We talked about for some previous podcast about examples and who knows where the examples are you know. Maybe there maybe the complete trash, but it's all we have to go on and they said that one suggestion question about whether racism is a predominant problem in the country and it was Only thirty issue in the thirty was all trump voters and the seventy was all Biden. Voters are now button voters, the seventy was two thirds Biden and a third tromp now really genuinely believe that you wouldn't probably say trap, but they did say drop in part because they knew they had to say that that was the answer that was expected of the olive at variance that right, but but what? What
I dont know one single person who is seriously involved in politics who didn't look at the footage from you know the riots and can and various other places and didn't say this is probably gonna, be bad for the Democrats, all of them when the press, who the ones who said it wasn't enabling our thoughts like the Waigel at the Washington Post. what I'm saying there's this day, you was the most blown up irrelevant event in this campaign, and I think we can make that assessment under lawyer saying that canosa the riots in all all of these phenomena surrounding the the expressions of violence around the George Floyd Protest, where relevant, to the outcome of the selection that the countries with Dave Y, settling as it was not my arms already settling on what is a can't, possibly be true because he may say it and they may said Anne Abigail Spam
an Conor Lamb and the two defeated Congress, women in South Florida, and I bet you hardly router in in California, and and whoever was that young can be them. California- that they all say the same thing, and so what we were gonna have is that House races the house that the fact that the house, not only didn't democrats take seats in the house but lost seats in the House and Democrats are gonna have a very, very thin majority. Having had a very comfortable majority in the last two years,. That's gonna be about this summer that is gonna be about the summer. That's all I can say
and there they ve already there I started to say it and they will continue to say so. We will gather tomorrow for more thrilling, no exit conversation, sulphur Noah Christine enable Jump, Adwords, keep the candle learning.
Transcript generated on 2020-11-11.