O um e Excect Eriton n Iami Ami Hve, oh o matha as I I fa- welcome to the commentary magazine pug yesterday is Tuesday September. Third, twenty nineteen. I am jumped onwards editor of commentary, the seventy eight, seventy old monthly of intellectual analysis, political probity and cultural criticism from a conservative se. Good. As ever, we invite you to join us at commentary magazine dot com, where we give you a few free reads and then asked you to subscribe: one thousand nine hundred and ninety five four digit description and twenty nine hundred five for five all an all, including our beautiful our magazine in your in your eleven times. With me. As always see your editor, a Greenwell high Abe Hajahn,

associater nor Rothen Hinow John IN and Washington senior writer Christirose, an hychristine, I Jan Christine as are resident of a native floridium, with her king Adorian moving apparently like one mile an hour, two Florida, unless it turns or something like that My question to you is why why does anybody live in Florida That is an excessential question that I asked myself. Often when I was a child Edna a I answered it by no longer living in Florida, but it's it's a constant battle with nature. If you live in the state of the interesting thing about this particular Hurricane is how the politics of hurricanes in Florida are vast. Long standing? So there's this ungoing debate about what much information should be shared by the governor, with Resence Tof, the state and with law enforcement and Dissanctus is now.

Would you, the governor of Florida yeah? He, the current governor of Florida hoo, who is a pretty protum guy. A is sharing more information from his breethings with the public which the public likes am Thermight and his predecessor Vangad, then Reksadoveplor exactly so a always politics, and when it comes to hurricanes in Florida. I I was lucky enough to grow up on the West Coast on the Gulf Coast, so we didn't get hit as often as the EAST coast, which is also the coastets, could look, looks to be bad, by Dorian this time round, but people who live in Florda are generally prepared and expept of at least one major storm every year. Even if it is a tropical storm, so am yo. Nauflority, ands er are naturally weird in a good way, and hopefully, hopefully the damage will not be as Greod as it was to the bahomas which looks like it was really devastates, Paschin Granpa Min well. So

It was nineteen. Ninety two, a farmer were correctly that Hurricane Andrew decimated, oa large watch o Southern Florida, because am so much of Thee areas had not been subject to any kind of code. Ensuring the housing would somehow be made somewhat hurricane resistant. As apparently you know you of lake really strong Inds or somewhat that wood framed houses are a terrible. I just a terrible idea: ah anda, you remember those pictures like miles and miles and miles of ye know. Neighborhoods that were basically just levelled, am and then housing coats changed something, particularly if I were right in date in Prouad counties changein their housing coat so that that damages enough no longer can be anything like like

what it was, but I am more im I raised thiscresionabout way of AY lis and Floridacause I', been evide, I've, a nephew it nice and to kid living in my abmy for for work reasons a so I certainly understand that Adam of going to my Amy at Lovegoing Tho. You know it's a wonderful place to visit am, but there are these estions areall than are raised about these shore line communities where there is survey Inlike, let's a be a Herkins Sandy, which was Aa Freak once a hundred years. Storm that you know did terrible damage to you know: HAT New Jersey end Amen Manhattan. He felt a these? Are it's relatively predictable, there's going to be a storm every year, and yet you know the Florida as become, I think, the fourth most populous state or the fifth most populous state in the country, and for a long time. You know until the

Mhe twentieth century was Lord. The uninhabited right and we see er listening eh Yo Lenit and its built on swiss Cheesamea has built on limes to pis the water you're at water level at sea level. I minutes its If you live in Florida, you live with constant risk of the elements destroying you and not just the weather. But you know the insect life, the Dan Aboout hat or slant life alleget, as Thou ran drawer bells. Andasso, it is what and enormous. Historically it had an even larger, more devastatinga. Her can flart in the early part of the Tw Sentry. Yet there was a labor day. Her gave s actualy a Labouraday hurricane that struck ET a things of nineteen twenties. I wrote e, but nother t men? It's the same argument that exists for all of these houses on the Mississippi Flood, Plain Wright to mean that its stimp? It's much more difficult to insure them and when they are destroyed and the people or displaced the question is who pays

when are you going to be allowed to rebuild their and in Florida? Look people of Florida has no state income tax if it's relatively inexpensive place to live. If you live outside some of the major expensive cities to lot of people end up there. But there are these risks involved in in investing all of your all of your a home anywhere near a hurricane's own which mames an but the Ninale hid of Michael hit as a five last year right. But we didn't talk much about it beforehand or after the fact, because it hit the pan handle in Panama City Beach, which is where no one go from the Acella corridor. Everybody as to my ammy, everybody goes to for Latterville the only reason, in my view, that people cared about this storm which doesn't seem like it's going to be actually impacting directly as well as making landfall. Ah Florida alowed the escos to Florida, one it Liokin hurricane hits a major matropolan senard's, give it it's a bit's, a more

erious matter than if it hits a and it's much more serious if it hits my Amy than Jacksoville, because Thas rd. People in his sellacourt have go. The vacation, really Hesell Corter go to Guino Iceland and places like that now Hou' on which iwazodically glader no got e lanp o Cang well, where I as I say, I love my amy, but there is so Ia Hac a Rumattan College, whose father was a m, a personal injury lawyer in the land which is an s nor Central Florida and Ah, he basily made his money off of medical malpractice cases because this was in the seventy. So we should stipulate tha thissis at the seventies, because Floridas Asting requirements for doctors were almost non existent, and so everybody who got like up get kicked out of their bov licensed anywherese anywhere in the country, would serve the

to Florida, and then you know paralyzed people on the on the operating table and stuffayiciginos knows he said his father said it was like in this case inlegal terms, it was like shooting fish in a barrel in these inety groom who these these huge judgments, the Idia without question. You know cases of negligence and tha outright liability, but it was part of the Hing. Where Florida was one of these states a little like Alaska. Oddly, it served like its polar opposite. A where people went when they had to get at a dodge and go somewhere else where they could just set up shop. You know it before for anybody could find out who anybody else was. I guess that change, but you knon't be basically the floor to man mean, and all that suggests there is still this kind of not seek quality to Florida.

Jirst Paradise now the novels of Karl Hyacinth and the Elmmore Lennard Florida novels and that serve the general sense that it's AB kind of funky stated with a lot of bizarre people living in it. Looking for the main chance. Ah, I don't think there's another state, quite like it in that Sense, well it in its in its way, it's so politically and culturally such an intriguing place because is in the south, but it's not southern right. It's it's really not like the rest of the Deep Houth, a It's an odd and quirky. I at I hold it near and dear to my heart, and I have family and friends who still live there. So I'll speak ill of Florida, but it is an incredibly wacky place and is, of course, politically You know the most important stay, the last twenty years, if ye think about it, because it effectively one trump, the election owers the Florida

had gone the other way they had twenty a hilry wouldn't have quite one, but I guess you would have got really close. Ah, and of course the whole idea was will Hillary was good to win because she racked up all this early voting, and if you remember the earlh. Night election night, twenty, sixteen as somehow the vote wasn't quite coming in the way Ligsmac did and you owt all, but wait till Dade starts reporting our Waitill Broward Start Tats, pom beach, that that and those numbers just wore in quit, telling in the when they were supposed to come in a cap sang its trumpet. You know to hi: he blew off havin. Ground game there and Hilry had a e gran Egam worse in eighteen, when you had gilaman, ah Nelson right, o Goll, HAT's rights out, so so thes, the other which, as I believe, a more comfortable margin, o Fer, a Republicans for Republicans than in twenty sixteen, although as bigger fur rixscot than it was fur rond the Santus. I believe

raggely, I think in each case it was like a point. Anbount not words like there was this idea that maybe the gubernatorial race, tha Gillun de Santus, was going to lead to a recount and that, just as at by the time the night was over, it was clear that there was no recount and it Beit fell to Stacy Abrams to be Thep to be the horror victim of of supposing of you know: voter suppression, gound has immediate career. Yes, all Meles Helse in this runk out the face of the earth bill. Lessen's an odd duck, Tougt Lessen's, a strange person. I mean he is a kind of very characterless. You know. I mean the most Tere YE sitting matter. What the moment is Zillariat of Astrnice. He had been an astronote and was like the object less than why Astromats were necessarily that interesting as feful, no

that's like the point of the movie first man and stuff like that, is that you know what that what they were were incredibly calm people. You know they could like keep their pool under the most extreme circumstances. That's what they were tested to do, but people like that aren't necessarily can have the most the greatest Stob personality, hey if Florida goes for trumpets when Enny. I predict Florida gets cancelled by the way ol Wouldb we've got a Teaep Iog lessen repontable won't be filming there. We wont GE now by the way, with interesting about Florida. Is that when we, when you, when you hear discussions of what Democrats need to do in twenty twenty, that's all but implicitly suggested florit is out of reach for them, which seems odd, if you think about it, because it's been Ub, it's been a you not went for a Bama twice when for Bush twice in a wintor tide in twenty twenty, a in

I think, that's wet in two thousand, but I mean you know it. It is. It is the very definition of a swing state. Unless something's happened between twenty sixteen and now has n' swungin cycles of the state Uhens they way about. What's one, it's one, tits I'm too Trump from mobile as they are someone's, I suppose, you're right. I don't think that comes from the shock of the extent to which your high always is so a reachw. Oh high got so high of you was Threatend Youm Posterboy Swing states of the last decade, all a sudden, you're the last year to have been lumped into there were lumped into each other in two thousand two thousand four right and then now said another visible YE tihe the metals, but I think there's GOA Bia it'll be ver,

interesting to see in twenty twenty when, when the democads finally settled on a candidate and then have a chance to run in the general, what the fights are like inside the party about where to commit resources ofwards a few. If you give up on Ohio because you figureu just lose it by five and you give up on it, Thend he'll, be always feelds say you can't give up. Ont Ohio, whatd! You crazy, like this, is the your Lue Yor ear, your acknowledging the loss of the state in perpetuity. If you do that, if it's too important, but I mean a state that that a trumpoly one one. I think that in twenty sixteen at florida- and then you say well noter know I there's no Olege Tatewl race of florid, an twenty twenty Pragy, no governor, no sire, I don't NSO, now Kcasetc as Rubia was zudged in teen and of end

Hatch is Ansy YE. So I it's just very a odd that we've got into this point. It seems to me, am: are all election stuff was flortna, I'm so it's mysterious a Yet a one point, two per cent winning margin and Trump did not get over fifty per cent. So you know midnight can't imagine that yen ousanders are worn as a candidate. Could you know, and then the state is yet they would, they would generate the anti democratic vote that tromp would dream of in a state like that, but Byden certainly wouldn't e seul them, half the voters are older than Bitin it. I manout half under bit some astounding, the mon, in my behalf and my behalf am so that

sjust came over as I was at talking that that that a Dorian has not been downgreated to a category too, so maybe it'll, maybe they'll, say ah, but I was going to say about Florida in terms of money, if you think about it that if, if people now have to build in the possibility of fleeing every every year for three or four days, botels somewhere else. You know you get like an in the pan handle, or I don' o Albama or Georgi, or something like that, like that's, a that you you're, adding like thousand dollars to your annual budgeing, to then sure for that stock, pile and goods utter now I mean it said: it's a inflay. It has an inflationary effect. Even if you don't pay a state tax. How much would its state tax be hello? Ah juspopped into my head? Ah, we

some difficulty coming up with good HO tell, if is ok, ol God Knohas got one. I hadn't ging to do this awn air ogas it so to speak. She e can't lout of it. Ah, the president is under fire from the left. Mor for devoting resources a toward in effort to attack the records of reporters. He had talked about it before I'm, but sometimes reporters really ask for it a notably this afternoon we had a scalp claimed by a Lumberg reporter who wilfully misrepresented some comments made by a as parming a labor. I think it was yes a of a functionary who was making fun of the altright by online by adopting some of its, which were

access is in a way that was clearly sarcastic. But if you were to send us to ignore the sarcasm, then you could see them as being genuinely genuine appeals to racial solidarity, which is what this report is dead presented to the Department of Labour and the Department of Th Labor, summarily accepted the gentleman's reck resignation sentiment against. Thus appears to be uni so up to and including our own jump onhorts, who shared his thoughts and everybody, I've seen on twitter. Even people who aren't big fans of you are saying aup right, o ha. I have hislay that first, while they are too two issues here- ah what Iesso, a leafelson who was hired to help a e am a implement, a deregulatory ba policy emanating from the White House and the I guess, the Dirregulatory Office of the White House at the Department of Labor, some lawyer in Euston

ah, you know, gets disappointment. Moves his family to D C. He's been there for two weeks three weeks. Ah this reporter at Bloomburg, a Benjamin pen, has apparently been tasked as the reporter of the Department of Labor for Enap Paic focussing obsessively on the ways in which the white houses forcing the Department of Labor to conform to its Horribl Thiological, a directives like the department of labors on part of the executive branch and is supposed to implement the of ye know views of the president. We know if no, when that would but were not talking about Statue Ahm, so he's been like obsessively writing mat this or pushing about this, and then apparently somebody looked up. The Skyly Falson's face book where he, where he wrote, am triumphantly about the destruction of.

A monster, an evil, vicious horrible, Anti semitic, piece of filth Ai Paul Kneeland, who had run against Paul Rian in the primary parion in twenty sixteen, ah whasa ye. And what will he run against Paul Ryan, two thousand and when the result came and Ryan beat mealland by seventy percent. When I say that Paul Neelan is one of the MOS greed, Anti Semites in american life. You can Judge that by the fact that he has, I know, people don't really like that this happens, but he has essentially been banned from all social media by the social media Majordomos because his fen heat he would Sayt Stin things about be about Benchappeart, like anybody with a jewish name. I mean he was really gross and fowls this guy basically are revelled in in it and you know someone, and so in a

Arcastic way. Ah, and no one went back at him like Somebodyn of a copied this to Benjamin and probably insaid, o look. Here's you kno here without understanding the sarcasm or understand the sarcasm. But seeing that you could play the sarcasm straight if you were looking to destroy somebody's life and pen starts glowing leads tweed Uthis own story try. Fintly talking about how he this guy's job, ok, so this is just horrifying and you accusing somebody who is doing something filelow, Seminic Semitic of being anti semitic. Is a moral and spiritual crime. In my opinion and so I was enraged by this. So I am no longer untwitter. I haven't tweated since March. Ah, but I

The only way I knew how to reach the sky was to send him a private, direct message in which I said you know aim on you. This is disgusting, at also says in his Twittr Bio, that he graduated from Jerlisom school in twenty nineteen, which would be now so it's like. So his twenty two twenty three years old. Who even knows how old he is. So it's like you know a Enst end, He then showing the same judgment that he showed publishing the peace. Then published my direct part private messages to him on Twitter, post them untitter, I'm, which I is also a violation of something like I men in Getts. I didn't say this is off the record, but I mean These are still private. Communications are not public, there deliberately mot public. So you know ihave now challenged him to release the fall.

Up, in which I said this was a private communication in this just shows that you're are unprincipled worm for having done this anyway. So I lost my temper. I sent him this female and now I think, he's discrediting himself by publishing my private privateness just to him. Yet. I don'to kow me to think us then favorable to his position. My favorite bit about that Bloombrg story was that at included a paragraph about the target of this investigae having been involved in some legislation in the last decade or court court challenges in the last decades, Toth same sex, marriage rights, which would be a non sequitur in the story. If it wasn't an admission of why the terms of engagement have expanded to the point that they have, that the

cultural Revanghism and in in Afereso the UE revenge, yet its open season, because the guy is obviously some kind of e tan by even include that in the story in his completely unrelated story, if it wasn't o Kat. This is the reason why this is a bad gind. You should feel any sympathy for, but will that, and that is how that is how, when, in Ot the way these things work and twitter controversies in about two hours from as were speak. When his defenders start copping up that's what the ade. Do they're got a like dig into leaf Alson and try to find every horrible thing they can say to say. Well, maybe he wasn't an anti semite, Cudn't hav worked for the strationly with any of the other question, which is wided thee, Mister Sallaziso at Aja, and the answer is I I put this quite frankly so

the Labor Department is full of morons and the communications ab he resigned and nobody said don't resign or he resigned, because he was trying to be a good soldier, and this was a controversy and nobody said: don't don't you dare resign? I'm you know and who knows what's going to happen there like, so he resigned from this The'Ll hirem for something elsetimg. They can put him in the Lighthouse Councils Office Office who the hell knows something it doesn't involve, but but OB mean if you are just because jebs like I let me by the way, I think that, by the way, if the Trump administration is so terrible, why is their acceptance of his resignation seem as a confirmation? A of of the rightness of the story like, I thought that laboured farmer was just awful and was implementing terrible policies that are evil. According to Benjamin PEN, a quote reporter unquote at Bloomberg, politics or whatever the hell is so you brought it up. I wasn't got to bring it up, H an he reget Christine. I,

ay one thing which is in a lot of people assume that if someone resigns during one of these scandals that it It's in an implicit admission of of guilter or a concern that may be other Stuffwill be dug up, but honestly from an individual perspective. They probably just don't want a have to deal with the relentless harrassment that they are going to receiving er propularity have been receiving on line and it probly makes it difficult for them to actually do their job. So I could well imagine some one who was seeing her in doing Herdutian in public service to sing. Forget im worth it. We shall Hove WAR that before that that there is no respite for those who of resign. Under these circumstances, there's no like off period now it used to be right, quid a long part of Thet Wih Lumpact. The social compact was that, if you quit, if you were driven out, you got to go and go Pafe you got to go and bet bow your head and leave public if meant that you left public life and now, of course the

oggs pursue you. It outtered through that the Lynch MOB pursues you even as you're retreating, it's running after you as you leave the the you know, which is why I think we came to the conclusion that we e think we talked about this a couple weeks ago that a Ralph from the governor of Virginia politically did absolutely the right thing by not quitting because if he quit, it's not like life would have been any better. You know it would have been worse and everything would have been terrible and he just decided you know what I'm going to I'm get a I'm, he IDE out this storm about the this im ing a claim. I don't know if the graph is me and I'm just goin o ride out the storm, and you know that's how I think things should should work now, because you you aren't allowed.

Aren't allowed to say. I am leave me alone. I am you. You got me leave me alone now, because I need to go and like lick, my wounds and frail wit to do with the rest of my life. You can do that if you're it depends on who youare employed by I mean the Sair Jan at the at the Newyor time, said a ha same exact thing. It was just a joke, it was just sarcasm and she said some extremely straightforwardly. Hateful things about white people and tr job. There was no problem. Wete Bon to saying that, ah, that that's what you should do was keep your jut. Like you shouldn't quit, you should never wit I mean it, there's no advantage it. It's like putting blood in the water used to be the opposite that you the blood was in the water, because some one was pursuing you aggressively and then you quit and therefore your blood didn't drip in the water any moreand. Now there's in others in that the the poor

water is no longer isolated, it's everywhere. So another good reason for not being on twitter even to send a direct message. By the way I mean not that I don't think that I think I got the better of fits am ah but Ibe. I I I really did I found this. You know and then there's a larger question, like TIM Carney of the washing examiner, said like this is why conservatives think that me to hate them. You know like ause, the Medio, hate them that's why cause you have a guy who is some kind of Uknow, ENY, logial, conservative and some disgusting illiterate child at Bloomberg. Politics decides he wants to destroy the ideological conservative. He does it and and everybody who has any reason to feel even remote. Sympathy for the guy says: well, you know you can't. We cannot get a fair shake any

who was willing to put their careers on the line to do something to implement a conservative policies is going is like basically in a sniper's. Finds themselves with a sniper, look at them in a gun sight, and you know that's so Why should we believe a single thing? You say why shoud of a single time that you say the don't trumplied about something because say anybody will do anything as long as you don't like them, and it's it's hard to. Tar did to disagree with that, particularly the rise of the digital media age, which makes so much of that. It's not just the pieces or the articles themselves, but the commentary Wor the you know that the the remarks that follow somebody not reading the article and only reading the headline or something like that. You know that there's no. There's no such thing as sort of Veno Fair Standards,

It's also. Why M, if you're serve anywhere on the right you're, your increasingly I'm likely to dismiss any outrage about OM accusations of very surly like this orises, because, because the politicization of that um has become so crippling the end end an I'm completely discrediting that you don't you no't even want. I o ye and I'll get a gibe. It give it time ne GI here, I may, if you say to me or say of any of us, that we criticize a Osee or Resheta to leave or ilhanomar because were racests. I adn't gin to say you stink, because I had Hald. I am not a racist that I am not criticizing them on the base of an chrisas and of having discussed horrible ideas that they deserve to have

challenged in the Publiciste universalization of the notion that virtually every aspect of american life has some racial component to it means that you know you can't. You cannot issue that you can't do anything near LY frankly, but you can certainly cam criticize these women on grounds that are meritorious or a policy base not not entirely. There has to be some racial subsecxts to it, because literally it has if impact every aspect of american economic and social life. So that's a part of it am yet's a fastiningly closhe as the same Fau process that leads you to. Nationalize. Ah person's private life like this the notion that well, he engaged in some litigation in the early two, thousands against Samsex's marriage when that was THEL, o consents of political consenses of just about everybody, including the present, the United States of Democrati, presently United States. Ah, that consentes us,

ifted, but since so not we have to expirgate all those who were on the wrong side of history. So, even if you know your private face book Post or misrepresentatives misrepresented in service to the national good of Expurgating. These people, who involved in that Sroom, behale an even up, sent even went even when there's Noht evidence of races, behavior or raises motivations you're, still a implicated because of unconscious bius. To that That is something that I think people on the left is there are constantly arguing that conservatives are harping on this idea of unconscious Pise as being ridiculous. It reason it it's not necessarily ridiculous, but it's dangerous when it's deployed as a way to make that the label of races sticks, even when there's snow had rather then than you have the example of VA a VA whose chief of staff was it who got cashiered because they started to turn the

You know you're a racest on a liberal Hona, a who was Itit's. The chief was Stea the wealthy chief of Staffy, the Rebes, a seeing ai right ye. Remember us sia his demicrat, yet who started turning on left his Democrats at alieursia. A look at your racial record too. You know, oh, was that somebody who was a native o may Gen right there was like you are you know? If you talk this way, you knowned the herb, we're Gond. I have to take a hard look. Primaryg you or something that's the point at which they got no kake. You know what this is fine against our heads, but you start to p. We against us and work work in a start screaming um I mean that Ex s how hollow it is. But for the most part, the is this story, the nationalizing in universalizing private life and service to to it a political objective. Ah,

demonstrate. The extent to which that kind of thinking is such a conceit is just something you work yourself up into in order to justify total war. I just don't know if it's a conceit because where it were at first got purchased on college canvusses. Where you had left us attacking liberals, you didn't have left a stagint conservative. You had est, shaming, silencing and choking with fear. You know the limv profisoriate that wasn't moving fast enough to give them all the goodies that they wanted and that success. I think then broke out of the confines of the university, and maybe some You know, foundation serve the nonprofit sector of the United States and then kind of has now urged full blown, but I think it's driven by conviction. You know it's not to like a power grab, I mean it is a power grab, but it. But it's a paragraph that says we have every right to grab power, bebe

you hold power illegitimately in your power, is all based on get out illicit evil. Racial racialist list, whatever ideas now, but before we go on. Let's talk about our sponsor to day lending club. Gis luck! If YO caring revolving debt. That means you're not paying off your card every month and could be paying thousands and interest every year that you don't have to you know. What's funny, I was looking to pay off ares, mostly pay off my credit cards. Every month. So I don't really noticed this. But id look at my the interest on my DELT, a sky miles American Express Cardetes like twenty nine per cent twenty nine percent like when did that happen et the most amazing thing. I've ever seen so I'v fortune. I don't have an interest problem cause. I pay my credit card full, but you know with Linden Club, if you're not like me, and you can't do that, let me cume

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We talked about the bad twitter story. We talked about Cansiculture and Powergrabs, and all that a'm. Ah, maybe weu can collud with system as John Agover, with a rank rang Pundetree, so the rank pon a tree that struck me to day is that rasmusin, the polster, the Trump friendly holster, the Trump House, holster, ah basically to day, came out with its Seither Monthlier weekly pollar. Whatever admired, they do a daily track, but this is their big pole that has trumpet forty five per cent approval in fifty four were cent disapproval um for Rass mustn't to be at forty five. That means the Trump's prul and other puses. Probably

I'm nine, but I've been okay, it's not really suck, but I mean that is a pollster not saying that they do anything dishonestly, but somehow they are as friendly to trump. The polling is is friendly to Trump, as it can possibly be. Trump has made that clear.

Leeds, where he celebrates and blionizes rasmusin andcuses other holsters of being unfair to him. So that's forty five, a he's now down to forty two in the real, clear politics average after this summer that washingposs at big story this we kened about how you know Trump wasted the summer getting into twitter fights and making clear that the trade war was something very weird and ny hard to follow him. All that a when I pointed that I looked back at the relcerpolitic's average from the beginning of the Trump presidency till now, and his high water mark, as far as I can tell in the average of averages, was on May twelfth twenty nineteen when he was at forty

five per cent. Forty five per cent is his high water mark ever and he's now dip dipping below that substantially. I'm you know I if we, if everybody were at warn't, so ah were ald by the fact that he won the presidency, even though in fact the national Poles got the national number right. The Basel was forty, eight forty six, ah, which is what it was, what it was. Hilary got, the national voter or We haven't words a rattled. You would look at this and day that a lot of the conservatives that we know who are likeble he's obviously gon a wind he's gon a win, he's gon awin at me. Look you a people, love Emany, they're too quiet an the o, theyre afraid to say anything in the meteor, so unfair. That Democrats are Toolalh.

This than all that these are really horrible imeanit. This is a horrible number ly Hito, I'm I and, as I as I've said, m the beginning of the presidency. You know the thing is that he won in these three states right, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan was consinant Pennsylvania and a eighty eight thousand votes and when you know, if you're the democrats- and you know that Trump got, you know, eleven thousand votes, her twenty thousand votes there in forty four thousand votes there that gives you a pretty how easy Tarc hit to say to spend whatever you have to spend to get. Though precise numbers up in those states to get a candidate over the hump and win the state if he can't generate any new voters in the state. A ccording to the state wide palling right now he's not doing that there in any of them im

If I were you even like a Trump backer like I had devl with several Trobaggar, I would I could be an oskd Chand bury my head in the sand and say these numbers don't mean what they mean. But if I If I really want him to win you, I want the White House to wake up and figure out that they on a trajectory that is not favorable and that the TRU reme that he better kesome changes in order to get there? Even if you love everything that he does well Thatmean, I think what's doing it. Ere are to the economic firetrigt, and this is justed the essentially the start of of those fear, so utter UT in a what what is he now going to change, or even

If, if you were even open to such a thing, while we saw some of that, I mean in terms of economic policy, that we saw some of that by postponing the implementation of certain tariffs on consumer goods before just before the Christmas season, with the tacit except our taciturn admission right that consumers pay. These tariffs in China is filling Treasury with thud. So we han't a dis that righty hi do that I mean had no effect, an plite sentiment, but consumer confidence is still really high. No apparently it's fallen. They disturm just Rably, that they just released the August numbers in there at their at twenty twelve levels. It is a hut than as down WI theirhie. Ever it had been on Thi century right, like the Muth Afore, said: Sems Lic, a pretty big dit. What I think there are different measures like Thes Li Uneesie, wish Onentl wishing in measure than there some other measure outter. Now I mean it, they throw stats at you and I a camerber which came from where they don't really entirely agree.

I'm in the unemployment rate is still insanely low and wage growth is still sere. Es but they're also revising the employment numbers now word like G P, Ruth was two per cent. In the last quarter, the there were hundreds of thousand fewer jobs, a created in twenty eighteen them we thought or end. So I mean it's not that I think the public watches this Emmyo kno, registers it number by number nine member, the like they feel what they feel based on their own personal experiences, am. So I'm just saying like I don't. I think that there is ialogil argument that you're sposed to say Trump is strong and not weak. Ah because it it, he wants you to think that he's strong. But you know if he is in trouble and you want him to win I wrote a whole book about George H, W bushes losing Ampaign in nineteen. Ninety two in which the white Us found it very difficult

because of the nature of the cult of personnel White House to grasp what kind of trouble Bush was in a beginning in the beginning of nineteen. Ninety two and they were like how we're weregoing to be fine. Yet we just need to find a message. It's like you need to find a message now lllike you, co, mpress, you've been president for three years already, ah and so Yeu. There is something about that world and I think trumps world is probably even more extreme in this regard, that any admission of you know any admission that something needs to change is a sign of. You know, weakness and lack of a I can support lack of real commitment to the cause well and even if even if some one would risk the the wrath of Trump in that time Ack personality cult to tell him that, can you a Agean Trump being able to do that, even if he was persuaded Ter min, he talks only to the people who are already persuaded by him and you see it.

Seen it in his big rally so far, so, even if he, It's an odd thing it his ego might use be his defeat because he's not going to be able to acknowledge having to change policies or what not imean he's just thos. The last two rallies have just been repeats of what he did before and I can't imagine him having the ability is a politician to even do that ought to acknowledge any Problemour or Speed Bombar, and it is thout in his world to him. It's your caving to the Fack NEWS. Yet except except that he has this out, which is he can change on a dime and then say he wasn't changing on a dyme like he has no problem, but that he could change policy's wholesale. He could declare that they've won the trade Ware drop all of the tariff's r it's right.

Like? I couldn't do that you couldn't do it, but he could do hat. He could say well, Chinas really learned now that we, you don't screw with America and so now we're all goo to be futing. You know I mean it takes that intality, and I my guess is that if he really does Grank at some point that changes have to be made, that's exactly how he'll make them ah He will he will change and say that he won or that he's not changing at all he'll, just gas. T everybody of a different and then that will really drive liverels and saint right, because he's likeilly just chee you know a but tap, know you were pointing out that you know theres, sir, after after all the gun stuff, a after the Yi Knowther, the last MAS shooting A'M and this kind of focus on, we have to do something about the air fifteen. Everything is Ther

the air fifteen, is an evil gun that destroys everybody, and clearly he was very rattled. A by El Paso and Dayton, and now You know, as I think, was predictable. Lack of you know. Another horrible incident I'f a shooter, going to a specific place in picking people off that way supposed to that crazy driving spree in Texas, though the dye in the car a which it doesn't follow the same models. Ah,

You know basically the pressure lessons yet does I mean Ther? Sailles public does want something to happen on guns Ster Na Notter Brusherwoo, but they want something to happen. So when law makers art in Washington AR in their districts our states, I think there is a little bit that pressure feels like pressure more than it does in Washington. Ah so that, but that's ay, it's all relative because, obviously boon. The desire, among Republicans, is not to see any legislation with the possible exception of red flag laws on in in the national legislature is supposed to e state Legislaturs, which are working on other things. Ah, but mish macanll doesn't want to you. Don't sacrifice the the cohesion of his conference around a gun lows by putting something on the floor, because it would expose that the real fractures within their fisures within the republican conference over precisely what to do and when Dung Trump's AIDS talked to

reporters on background, they say more in sorrow, suggesting as real and genuine that the president does want to do something and he's pretty consistent on this he's, not a gun. Guy he's never been the gun. Guy, ah Thrond his Creer weaning before IE was a public. A figure for Pilefondise or his sons are gone. Go he sends are Conguas the Hease sceptical ofthesing, so his husbands, so does one of thee. Saning always talks about Backrin checks like hes seeds is desirous of seeing an expan Backgrancher. The problem is: is that the the now Democrats don't even want to do. To me mean everything in mansion. Toomey doesn't go far enough. Mantiened too me explicitly made illegal with Ale time, the creation of registries of gunhonors, a federal registry of conowners, the a mansion to me, explicitly rejected the idea of a private cellar's individuals selling from one family member to another or somebody as long as he didn't post it on on liner,

ublication. Ah, and those are the sort of things that are leading democratic gun proposal. So when Misshmacanel says in iova elms as I'm gon a wet, while I wash my hands Ath this, whatever the president says he supports publicly, he is to say this kan'tjust telephone met, whatever he supports, Seena will put to the floor. We'll have a vote, Putting all the pressure on Doneltrap to say, o K, I'm going to fare, sacrifice and fracture some of my republican support and had a twenty, which I absolutely will do. Gonvoters people who, with the issue of guns, always favours enthusiasm, always favors gun owners, overgun controllers, theyre, the ones who vote on these issues wat so that with few sacrifes say, I'm going to sacrifice one particular and this Ta Nted to a modest eccent was talking to Friendwiht, is a real gongy about a the president's efforts to get rid of a a mutilaterally band. Bomstocks,

and why they didn't have a big effect on goners who or single issue voters when it comes to Gunsd ET was like Wll. Nobody had him, I don't know anybody you have. There was no constituency for these things outside of the an aray, and it were really easy to get rid of, because there were so few of them. Well, you know there is also the opposed to expanded magazines, or God forbid, in air fifty which o the most popular rifle in America, like those things, would be impossible to control. So we talk about how you know the array gains things and prublicanserve gutnuts in all this, and they don't want any change. You know there is a cynical interpretation of live views of gun control that says that you know there there's part of a the politics of gun control. That doesn't want change either because it's a way of gitving up the gun controller base. And that you know what you actually had. If something happened, if Trump and Pelosi a different every week came together, said come by on did something or other that was gun control list.

You would lower the temperature level in american tics on guns to some extent, and that would make some kind of a eiver that that wood. So much of the heated passion, particularly, I think, among democratic women around guns could be dissipated a little bit boadd's, not to say that that's hot to say the Democrats, as a group, or Wit Whata do not want radical gun control change. Second order effects of that something are always worse than the not doing something tha well, we know I had Backo myselves, for example, was so used to Cooket Miek Zulkase of Private Backressols. You want, I sell your guns here friend or a your coworker or your cousin now need to become a federal registered. Tell her to do it most. People won't do that, but the still goes through. So all of a sudden, we have a whole ot, more ol legal guns than we had the day before. Look ause, you d Theire, the gun thant was legal, is now illeval right

yet has nothing. It's all has to do with the nature of the transactions of the nature of the ownership rights, which is the reason why this has never happened before better, but he says it is because the energy has you know that the Stranglehold and republic, so in regard to Trump, we, as we have said here several times a- do, he's his sort of base. We will stick with him through thin, thick and thin. You know they're there with no matter what, but he is he in fact vulnerable on and on sue even WI. With his face. I maynot. I think he is and look he thinks he. Yes, that's the point about him is that we keep saying he says I could shoot a gun down, Firth Avenue. Everybody would love me Ih being said at in twenty sixty or twenty fifteen. Not now, but Ah, can he take away? He is in conditional all all politics all politicians, Tis is conditional by definition. You know I mean it's like

He knows that there are three or four key issues for the for rural White Swarp, five HU, who fundamentally are the coor and hard constituency His support and guns is one of them. Ibshe, the of the, if it's not thee one, it's one of the two or three and a and yesso E Bob stocks was a good thing because nobody cared break? Is nobody? It's like banning at an outliy, planet here cell ring on. I would like nobody, drink cell re tonic, so you you know epok LA fettles. No right, I know ab you love celery, Tomi, I don't under git UT. I don't see o drinking it in the office and I they sell it at the local ghetto giant food. You don't ever do not ever buy one. You only drink it with Delly, oh if it's it's it Starbucks. May we should end that you are your pointing out that you know I maybe

The Congress returns from recess. Ay they've actually gained a now. A majority of the democratic Caucas now supports that the phrase which is literally meaningless his opening and impeachment inquiry. Nobody really knows what that means case. Of course, the entire Trump presidency has been an impeachment inquiry, I'm first by Lor now by the house whatever. But do you think that this is this is have any purchase ut well yonner. You have a nabbler, for example, asuing to get expedited access to Robbert Muller's impeachment in er Robermaun's investigation materials, but I mean far Peluci's hanging tough, and there are still these key swing. A district, a Democrats who are

eager to join on, and this is actually an example of where, despite his very low, a approval, ratings Trump could gain purchase if he can portray himself as the victim of a witch unto mean it. I think that I don't think the public is ready for an extended impeachment and inquiryit in a run up to a major presidential lection, a but Plose I's showing her hand and ultimately, it is cut of up to her, but in no the me. You come out of the summer with more Democrats, a eager to see and appeace my procedure than not so they don't even know what it means an. I would think it ov an impetiuin grief for the next twenty year: inside judiciary committee that didn't involve public behave, these carries can be held behind closed doors. They can do that. There is, in the end, the term in peace the inquiry is meaningless all either. They will draw up articles of impeachment and vote for them on the floor of the house, zines or they won't. You know am and a

It seems to me that this is a shadow game that that that Theire Planthat, even neither is playing like it's a kind of Ther their pretending that they're that theyre pursuing avenue into an inquiry of impeachment. It was paleitas as evidence of the thoe a appetite for an impeachment inquiry. The number of lawmakers who increasingly came out of democratic omikers OM swing, districts, vulnerable lawmakers, who came out in favour of an impeachment inquiry, the closer we got to Longust August recess and thus the fall legislative calendar which in that ceiling increase in a whole variety of other, more pressing issues as though it was evidence. At. It was more likely rather than less likely an patrinicr would happen. It was obvious at the time, at least, to me that the closer at August the lesson rative. There was to be firm on this sortof

because it was the calendar was just done. It was never going to happen to you. There were no consequences for coming out in favor of something was never going to happen, but look you know sometimes you have to Coul Thisud say that the democratic inability to you know I too move the noise from the signal and focus on something could actually get get purchases. Pose to relitigating two year investigation that found that he did not collude with Russia. Et at the rosing that yet at their using the fell, the Moller investigation to give them what they won as the pivot into impeasement right Bewise, that I am saying, I think, that's a mistake and hears. Why eminent? I thinks clearly mistake, but why? If you actually believe the Trump deserves impeachment this is the wrong avenue to go down. There was the story two weeks ago and we don't know

true like we only know what what's that you know now, because they said it was a joke or something, but when Trump said that, if he in fact said that he would pardon a Fih, ls who implemented his a border plan. Ah, if they were, you know, arrested or indited for breaking. Lowb am that's an impeachable offence. Now the thing is there was one story, one article one allegation a more serious congress run by more serious people who warrant totally jet. You know totally blitzed by, Intrump Trump in every way, shape or form could have focused in like that of folk, and on that, like a laser beam like heat like if the president is saying that he would all he would suborn, you would message would go out that you could break the law because he would pardon you. That's like opening that's

tically open and shut impeach me now I crime and misdemeanor, but they can't get. Head away from Russia they can't get their head away from? You know Anstormy Stormy Daniels, like it de you know they they they don't have and Ility too, you know to change field or change, focus. Um dot, as I say. Maybe it's nothing. Maybe he was joking. May He was ruminating and musing Andt, wasn't anything serious as mossibathy that the public will on the onte on the left. The lefter of public am has changed in that they, the noise is supposed the signal used to really be um, the sort of dha that the nourishment they lived on. I there was this constant, oh help, ehelp The'Se gong to be Imn Peach before it twine Twen. Anyway, es there's no way he's lasting so that that sort of dozen ist any more im. I think which which changes the the the Dimon the

Amazon com, you know there was a senior official in in the United States Congress that I knew who believed a Republican who believed that Trump could not survive to twenty twenty. That something would happen. He was too crazy and he was in all this and then and it it hasn't, and obviously that mean there's time time till two one but aving that Hasa'Nt. That hasn't proved to be the case. I think the general proposition among a lot of a people who did not adequately grasp, ah how what how revolutionary, in fact this election was

In terms of you know that that the establishment, or whatever he wasn't, get as simply reassert itself and nor malady was somehow Ghan A re be reimposed magically somehow from the outside. A was not just a failure of them of the of the left, they just believed, and they just fanticized. They get a created Muller. As this fantasy figure of you, knoted of ove of of salvations also come at the expenses with some of them more disturbing patterns of behaviour. From this president, a the we've talked previously about the failure. Mocrati Party to keep their eve on known, Emolian and Sball, which had a reason I was. The issue was a revivified over the week and wind with my pens's visit to Ireland and making a very strange decision to stay at a trump resort on the opposite coast from where he had all his official business in Dublin. A not

Caly, a convenient trip and the admission by his aids over the weak and very earnest admission that the president simply makes up conversations with chinese leadersh order to manipulate stock prices. That's no joke. Da'D Ella, Ree Lont, no joke its a joke, but it's somehow funny. I don't finhd that particularly fire. I, though I live either another Efflet Christida'Ss Christie's last is Gat ats gallows, humors Gelojah, an Glo S, Ey YE e, but LE thing. We also know that he, you know, I think, one of the things we should never look about. The Democrats pursuing Nenr this kind of pivot on Thet on the Muller investigation. Is that he's he it's the Trump Department? assess its being asked to release this. This evidence to Congress and Congress as well is within its constitutional right to demand oversight of that department and, if This is why I said it in front of a judge right now and in the next two weeks. I think it's like September 13th or so I judge is going to have a ruling. On that mean that's also sually undermining the balance of powers in er

our government. Amean Congress has oversight power and it should be allowed to exercise that without being thwarted at every opportunity by the executive. It does, but unfortunately, there's precedent to that that goes beat out beyond this administration of in the Apam administration did exactly the same thing with without informat. Relating to the fast and furious gamaaback thing, which is what led to Ercalderbeingi, held in the Atree General Aboms grip being held in Contemptiv of Congress. So yo know I am not I'm not lit im, not downgrading the serieses of what you're talking about I'm, but one of the things that Tre is done by speaking the subtext that you know bring the subjects to the text of this notion that this is all political. Everything that happens between the White House in the Congress is political, you can call it oversight if you want to, but it's just a all exercise, a power who can make who bend and who can and at eras a protocol and, like a

tradition and all sorts of things led to the fact that the executive largely exceeded to Congressionl oversight and Congress largely exceeded to executive with hority or more than largely exceeded a because I, It don't necessarily want to test how you don't want to do a stress test and see how far the system can be distorted by a refusal to go along with these norms. You have breaking president, you then live in a world, in which it seems like but this is why we don't need an impeachment. Obviously, as were having election, is Yeow in in fourteen months that election will be his impeachment of room and removal or not since obviously that is go to be the main subject of the election, as can he be allowed to have a second term. I may talking to be about

out. Despite all this nonsense, WI have we Democratu rally be running on serious tha. Have lots of arguments about health care? No one gen a ditch trump because of health care, They'E in a ditch trump to coubly the Margle Dishtrump. If it feels like it can't take any more and it will keep tromp if it feels like it, can I don't know what else there there is so what'll. We need an Impeachmen for theres Coan be a hundred and forty million people or gain inside this. Not I get Oup, not not fordred and thirty. Five nembers of numbers in the house, and if he one's relection will be Impeageon a second Jourm and that would not be impatiently, won't be removed, Phiyou know so. Yes, so that'll be fun and with that of he'll bring this to a Clahos. Ah so, for a Abe, Noah and Christine I'm John, RDS keep the Cettl on.