--On the Show:
--Despite a series of confused and often conflicting claims, crime is not rising in the United States, and the non-existent rise in crime certainly has nothing to do with police funding policies that have not yet been passed
--Donald Trump's actions over the last two weeks are primarily motivated by his growing fear that people are actually planning to vote in November
--A shocking new poll explains exactly why Donald Trump is so virulently opposed to vote-by-mail, which is really just an expansion of absentee ballots
--A stunning new Vanity Fair report claims that Jared Kushner decided not to build a testing program early in coronavirus because the virus was mostly in blue states, and Kushner's plan was to blame Democratic governors
--A new poll has Donald Trump losing the state of Georgia by 1 point to Joe Biden, telling us nothing other than that we have to vote
--Donald Trump adviser Jason Miller implodes on Fox News, refusing three times to deny that the campaign might accept foreign help
--Donald Trump carries newspapers around over the weekend to convince people that he reads in advance of an upcoming Axios interview where the subject of his reading comes up
--Voicemail caller discusses what actually happens if Donald Trump is able to delay the presidential election
--On the Bonus Show: The new GOP-backed HEALS Act, Canadians tracking US boaters sneaking across border, the latest on NBA players kneeling, much more...
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The David drag Michel David Pack, my dad can welcome to a new week of use in politics in the United States. I want to start today by trying at least to run some interference and introduce some food
act into the wild disinfection
she really is what it is. This information and ignorance and talking points that are spreading about crime,
in the United States, because there there are actually some, I believe well intentioned people, including people on the left who are are falling for some of these talking points and are ending up in places where they certainly
shouldn't be, and one of the things that can become difficult, particularly right now, is that one of the techniques that the right uses is to continually
you could say, move the goalposts you can say two guiche gallop, which is just to throw a whole bunch of stuff out making it hard to refute each piece. But if you did refute each piece, you would realize
there is really nothing there and the area where I'm going to focus on today's crime, because in the wake of the George Floyd Protests, in the context of
calls from some on the left to either defender abolished the police in a broader context, where most most of the left wants to reform you're. Starting to hear all of these subsequent steps being taken together,
to Joe Biden, will cancel all police and your kids will be killed as a result of it.
Like that's where they want to end up? There is all these
intermediate steps and one of those steps is it crime is going up, there's more crime right now, and they talk about this in the car,
next of Portland and Chicago often by playing in a thirty second clips of this or that thing happening so wheat? We absolutely have to go step by step so, first and foremost, if we're going to talk about whether defending police once Joe Biden does, it will do x or
I too, rising crime rates. We ve gotta figure out. Is that actually Joe Biden Plan would such plans if they existed actually be successful? But, most importantly, is crime going
Right now and crime rates in the United States on a year to year basis have been declining. That is the first fact we have to introduce here
because the entire conversation stems from that, despite the fact that we have
more and more people living in the United States over time, actual crime rates for things like this
I, like crime robbery, property crimes, it is all
declining on a per household basis when you
survey people- and you ask them, do you think crime has increased in the United States from last year?
almost every year more than fifty percent of the people in the United States believe that, yes, crime has actually gone up so cry
has been going down since the early ninetys people, mostly believe crime has been going up. Ok, that's step one. Now there are a whole bunch of other details.
And complications that warrant some more exploration. So let's do a couple of them before we move on. For example, some types of crime might be up one year.
Even in the midst of a downward trend or some types of crime,
be up one year, even when other types of crime are down. So as an example in TWAIN
twenty murder is up slightly, but a whole bunch of other crimes are down and over time all of these types of violent crime are down so
you would have to decide. Can I really make any relevant observation in one year about well murder?
is but rape and
robbery or down, and arson is up, but burglary and sexual assault. Whatever right so overall crime rates have been
declining for a long time and they continue to decline. It's also important to remember that
not all crimes are reported to police. So any time we're looking at something that depends on reporting to an authority. You have to consider that the record's may not reflect reality at equal rate. So as
example, which many on the right don't like sexual assault is notoriously under reported
however, that doesn't really fit into their narrative if they want to make it seem, as though crime in general is under report of you really have to start with sexual assault, which they don't seem particularly willing to do. Then you have other crimes. Crimes like
and Elizabeth public intoxication, which arguably should not even really be a crime which certainly
are visible in that you see
Viti or a broken window or with whatever the case may be, but those.
You're not the serious, violent crimes that were really mostly talking about when we talk about police should be reformed, so that gets us to what's going on today, since the George Floyd protests have started, we ve been hearing defend the police, we ve been hearing, abolish the police. We ve been hearing reform
we ve been hearing just fun? The police blindly give them as much money as they want. We ve heard every combination of things the
Majority of the left, including Joe Biden, is talking about reform. It could include reallocation,
funds taking funds away may be from militarization, while increasing funds for training as one example, but it
doesn't really matter in terms of the crime
we're seeing now because remember all of the discussions about defending abolishing restructuring all that stuff. It's in the future. It hasn't happened yet and yet still you have people like Donald Trump himself and his ankle
its tweeting videos of things going on now in Nepal
under Chicago saying this is the future of the country. If Joe Biden is elected, president hold on a second first of all, that's trumps America right now
so to say this is what's going on now, and this is what would be happening.
Even more under Joe Biden, you then have to see what is it,
Joe Biden would do that would exacerbate this in their actually isn't anything, but it also ignores
that none of these abolish or de fun, things have become a reality, so they are arguing. We are seeing
war crime in cities, because police have been defended by Democrats. The reality is key.
I'm continues to go down and nothing has been defended. Yet there have been some conversations in certain places about.
How might we reduce funding to police in some
basis it, oh God, Northampton Massachusetts is a place where the show started where there has been discussion at there's, been a decrease to the rate at which police funding will increase. If that makes sense, but all of this stuff is in the future. So you certainly can't blame future
possible changes to police funding for current increases in crime, particularly when there have been no such increases. Today, there have been discussions about doing
change who responds to certain types of nine one one calls when they bring when they relate to a homelessness,
or mental illness. As an example, ok that those discussions have been had, there are some places they have started to look at making some of those changes, but these policies haven't yet been put in place.
It comes to defend, abolish. I dont think that they are going to, and Joe Biden certainly doesn't support them. So when you look at this broader context, you do have to ask: why are people falling for the idea that crime is up- and this actually takes me back to my days as an undergrad at the
University of Massachusetts, amorous, where Michael Morgan, who's been a guest on this programme studied this extensively. Mov Erika shower also studied this in both of those interviews or on the Youtube Channel. There's often this assumption and we see it aftermath shootings,
We see it after a lot of things, that violence in the media and in popular culture in movies and video games makes people act violently
in the real world now
by and large that doesn't seem to be true it. If you look at the scholarship on this, it certainly possible that people already previously
I to be violent in the real world, might be triggered to act,
in a particular way based on things
consume and violent, video games or movies, but that's a small small portion of the population by and large, we have not found that view
video games are watching violent,
user or whatever makes people violent in the new in the real world. However, what does seem to be the case? Is that so
Violence on the news and in media may make people more afraid, and it me,
ex people believe that the world is more dangerous than it is. In fact, when you look at,
Google News- and you realize, while murder
down over the last thirty years. All of these violent crimes are down over the last thirty years, but the rapporteur
taken in media, is identical or has even grown because of this. If it bleeds, it leads ideology. It makes sense that, based
and watching news people would believe the world is more dangerous than it is. People would believe there is more crime than there actually is. So what
You have right now in part thanks to the Trump administration. Is this use its
All based on getting Trumpery elected and we're going to deal with that a little bit more later in the show, you have a lot of discussion of very rare
The visual incidents that are happening in the shadows of mostly peaceful protest, but the take away we have to remember is that crime rates have been under decline since the nineties end there,
certainly has been no de funding of the police yet which you could blame
for non existent crime, increases that they claim exist. Now, one
the thing that I think is important to think about that
the war on drugs in prison populations. Some will say. Clearly there is more crime, because people are in prison.
For committing crimes more than ever before their more people in prison. Right now. So clearly, there is more crime going on. Just because there are more people in prison.
Doesn't mean that the streets of the United States are
were dangerous from a violent crime. Standpoint. If you add things to the list of stuff that will get you put in prison, you would expect that more people are going to end up in prison.
If you put in place a mandatory minimums or if judicial discretion is used to sentence
but a longer prison sentences, you can see prisons more full, even if violent crime,
is on the decline in general society, which it is so it's really
important, not to fall for that propaganda because
Every level there there is to go back to the beginning. There is a guiche gallop going on where a whole bunch of stuff is thrown out. Crime is up and its crime because pull it screw it up, because police have been de funded and Joe Biden would do more. Of that you ve gotta break it down is crime
have police bendy funded already in a way that would even relate to what we're seeing right now know. Does Joe Biden want to defend the fault police if
to defend the vault police. If beauty, if he becomes president know every single one of the premises is wrong and they count on because they don't have the facts.
Their sight side. They count on you not knowing the facts or you not checking the facts and ending up
having to argue on the merits and when we accept the facts and debate, what should be done, we're missing the fact that the premises are all wrong. Hopefully this is useful.
When we see everything from dawn. Juniors tweets to discussions in right
and on the internet, about these issues go and look at
The premises makes sense and check out. In this case they don't, starting with crime
has been on a downward trend for decades in the United States. Let me know what you think
I'm on Twitter, it department, we have allowed
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David Pachmann, Shell, David Paxman, died, cars will come back to the show and the start of what I am sure will be another insane week in american politics.
Today's New David Pachmann show members of the day are John Jerome Castle. Longer thanks change around for your membership, also Phronsie skulk with us. We might column Bacco in Argentina or in a lot of spanish speaking countries, but does thank you. Phronsie could really appreciate your support and also George,
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I join Pachmann Dotcom. Some things are really complicated in the world and in politics, and they require deep knowledge. They require speaking to experts, there
require understanding different disciplines and considering
a lot of different components: nuclear energy string, theory postmodernism. Whatever I think you understand,
the right amount of taxation to balance not properly funding social programmes, while not
disincentive rising work or whatever writers right there's a lot of complicated stuff that exists in life
we have a really simple grand theory in front of us, which explains Donald Trump Behaviour as of late, and it doesn't require this deep.
And and new ones, knowledge of anything like string, theory or taxation. He is terrified
that people that you I'm talking about, people like you are,
the vote in November and more specifically, he's terrified that you are
when vote for someone other than him. If you just look at the last two three weeks in american politics, just about everything that Donald Trump has done publicly relates to that fear, which has become an existential
fear for him because his political life depends
on how you vote in November. Don't imagine that it's about how other people vote,
it's about how you vote you have agency in this, and Donald Trump is scared to death, his political life that you might vote.
Somebody else Donald Trump demoted his campaign manager, Brad PAR scale, because he saw
was losing in the polls and he reportedly was on the phone furious with par scale and ultimately par scale is demoted. That is because Donald Trump is scare
that he's going to lose if Brad PAR scale sticks in as his campaign manager, Donald Drums Mute,
on corona virus, which lasted like three days, which included in carrying around his mask and sang it, could get worse before it gets better, more serve, somber a sober tone. It was just that,
Duration to turn polling around. His idea was: let's just ignore it, ignored, ignore it open up, pretend everything's going back to normal that fail
the he knows that the
failure on corona virus is one of the main drags on his approval rating, and so he takes a new tab
that's all. It is, and it only lasted about three days, Trump opposed,
vote by male, because he thinks vote by mail will hurt. His re election
and it will I'm going to show you the new polling data on that Trump correctly perceives if
more people vote by male- that's, probably not good. For me, it's good for Joe Biden he's right
I will explain why so trumps motivation to stop vote by mail by which we really just mean expanding Ex Ante bout. Apps
de ballot access. His real motivation is not: oh, it's going to be fraudulent or fraudulent, as he says. It's that it's just not going to be good for him
announcing that he's banning Tik Tok could even relate to this now. Will he ban Tik Tok? We don't know. I would like, like most things. We were so
to get a new health care plan yesterday we didn't get it. He announced as many things that never happen
comedian. Sarah Coopers videos about Donald Trump, go gig viral on Tiktok, and they really dont make Trump look good. It was Tik Tok
users that allegedly organise that coordinated mass ticket request for trumps tool, so rally which ended up with a two thirds empty arena so again going after Tik. Tok could
he trying to look strong on China. It also could be that trunk perceives it. It's going to help him in terms of his election to ban Tiktok knee capping the post office by putting in here
Multi huge millionaire donor as the postmaster general. If people are
and to be voting by mail,
delay the delivery of the ballots by hurting the post office, perfect strategy right. Every action is in the context of how can trump get himself reelected, reportedly being open to help
from Russia, China and either other countries and we'll talk about that later. Today, there is a new interview there, which is completely out of hand. It's because Trump, his desk-
that is going to lose and he'll take anybody's help that he can get and then,
in the end as Trump realises that some people are truly so committed to his removal that they would crawl over
looking glass and die
land mines to vote to remove Donald Trump. He floats the idea last
week of delaying the election. Now I have to tell you I wish I was is confident that tromp was going to lose as Trump seems to be, that he's going to lose
in the sense that you would only do all the things Donald Trump is doing if you were
reasonably sure that you had a good shot at losing this thing. So, while publicly trumped says we're doing great in Florida, we're doing great in Florida, both of them
et Cetera. He knows that really he's not doing well, and he knows that he may well loose and
I am not as confident as trumped seems to be that he is going to lose over the last
when days, some poles have tightened up in trumps favor. Now it's he still behind, but it's it's still in a five weeks to deal. I'm sorry. Now we're still two months three months to the election, I'm getting. These were four and a half weeks from the first ballots being cast, but were still almost three months from the election. Three months to the day you don't want to see pole started
Now, that's a bad sign. Now everybody has a different idea about what drives Donald Trump, and I got some emails over the weekend saying you know trumps worried that if he loses in November he's going to end up in prison, I actually dont think that he's worried about
because I don't think there's really any chance that it's going to happen, and I know that I continue to hear from people who say trumps going to get indicted for this trumps going to get indicted. For that. I don't think so. I think that there will be some financial crimes
for which his companies maybe we'll be held accountable with fines, but trumps not going up.
And anybody waiting for that, I think, is going to be waiting for the rest of their lives. This is simply about Donald Trump Narcissism, Donald Trump, trumps, delusions of grandeur and the constant power trip that he is on. He doesn't see him
health as a loser and losing is you know to use their language losing is a beta. I dont think Trump in practice even wants to be president. He wants to be president in theory. In terms of the power,
that comes with being the president of the United States, Trumpet
the coroner animal who perceives the threat right now he has the fight response rather than the flight responds. The flight response might be amended
designer or turn things over my pants or whatever before this goes bad in November. If, indeed, that's what's going to happen, Trump has the fight response
and we know from studying the animal kingdom that this is dangerous territory to be in all of his actions from now until November, should really,
interpreted under this framework- and we just can't let him do it. It's actually that important and
the numbers that we now have relating to vote by male versus vote in person are a huge signal.
About. Why, on that issue, Trump is digging his feet in the ground, sticking his head in the sand, drawing a line in the sand. Whatever metaphor analogy, I mixing up here. You all know what I'm talking about and opposing
boat by male. Let's talk about that next, so oil. We ve already discussed today the Donald Trump actions on just about every issue. Everything we see him do. Public
its motivated at least partially. By does it hurt him in November orders? It help him in November. That's the lens through which all of these decisions are,
made about carrying his mask around about cancelling the huge event.
The republican national convention. All of this stuff is just what's the calculus in terms of how it affects my election when it comes to vote by male we just received some
stunning new polling data from Emerson Polling, and if this data doesn't convince you that trunk knows
exactly what he's doing by opposing vote by mail and confusing vote by mail with absentee voting as if their two different things, this data should convince you that
knows exactly what he is doing. Paul subjects were asked in this Emerson Polling survey, who they support Trump Verses Biden, and
grouped by whether they plan to vote in person or vote by male of those who plan to vote in person sixty five percent support Trump and only thirty, two percent support Joe Biden of those who plan to vote absentee. Seventy six percent support Joe Biden and only two
DE percent support, Donald Trump, so put it a different way? Trump leads to two one among voters. Planning to vote in person
Biden leads almost four to one among people planning to vote by mail. This is why Trump opposes vote by male. Now. The thing to understand is that this split between in person, verses, vote by mail is not partisan per se, its health related. Let me explain what I mean. We know from other polling that Republicans are roughly half as likely as Democrats too, where Mass
all the time when they leave their house. I think it was something like roughly sixty six to thirty three or amino sixty six percent of Democrats were wearing a mask all the time outside their house. Only thirty, three percent of Republicans or something like that. What this means is Democrats are taking the panel
more seriously. The reason that Biden supporters were way likely away more likely to vote by mail is they are taking the risk,
of catching corona virus more seriously than Republicans now
could come in and say well, if there's more
by male open. More trump supporters will vote by mail if there is less vote by mail
Open Biden, supporters will just go and vote in person. It's all going
shake out evenly. That's exactly the wrong approach that is exactly
the mistake that's being made and analyzing this Biden. Voters are
more likely not to vote at all if they can't do it safely, wild trump voters
more likely to vote in person if that's available that all its available so sure most Biden.
Voters planning to vote by mail. If they are told you can't vote by male they'll put a mask on, they understand the importance they ll go and take the risk because they understand
the importance of the election, but if you believe, as is probably the case that there are some Biden supporters who
might not vote at all, if they can't vote absentee, you
then try to stop vote by male altogether, which is exactly what Donald Trump is doing. Imagine that if you take some state that could be close and you restrict cancel or stop vote by mail and it dissuades just three percent of the total electorate
from voting, and imagine that in that three percent, who will say if I can't vote by male, I'm not voting at all. Imagine that eighty percent of that slice would have voted for Biden and twenty percent of that slice would have voted for Donald Trump.
That can flip a state that it it literally, is enough to flip estate. Let's look at whist consonant twenty. Sixteen now trump one with in twenty.
Sixteen very narrowly trump one. By about twenty. Two thousand votes in twenty sixteen in Wisconsin. If you dissuade three percent from voting, that's about eighty three thousand people that you would dissuade from voting. Maybe if you say you have to come in and person if eighty percent of those dissuaded or Biden supporters and twenty per
some of those dissuaded, our trump supporters, cancelling vote by male grows trumps victory by fifty thousand votes. Now
the margin was only twenty two thousand so understand how a small ports
none of the electorate. If it is mostly Biden, supporters being dissuaded from voting, could flip or put a state out of reach. Now this is
hypothetical example with hypothetical numbers. The point is: blocked
vote by mail, even if it affects a small percentage of total voters. Based on this data, it would disproportionately hit Biden, support,
is, and it could turn estate. So when you combine trying to prevent vote by mail with need capping the post office, which is what Donald
from his doing right now, by having selected one of his donors to be postmaster general. You can actually turn stay.
And that's why you know when we see ok, one point:
has Biden winning by fifteen percent, not gonna, be fifteen percent nother pie,
has Biden winning by ten. But when you account for the margin of error, it might only be six if that six becomes three or four by election day. If you strip
He gently slow down the mail in some states and stop vote by mail in other states, a three or four percent popular vote. Big victory for Joe Biden might not
be enough to actually win Alec totally with Hilary. We know two point, two, as a or two point, eight two point, two as an elegant as a popular vote. When was not enough to win,
orally because of seventy seven thousand votes in three states. We could see that again, and this is why
anybody who is looking at the appalling and saying we got this, we got this got, binds up. Fifteen
Biden. Might only be up six or five when you account for the margin of error and that could vary
We become an electoral college loss because of exactly this stuff do not become complacent. Is the message
continue. We will continue our coverage of this on the David Pachmann show ins
Graham page at David Pachmann show
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welcome back to the David Pachmann shocked. If you want to talk
a story that is pure evil. I mean just here,
unmitigated immorality. It is this breaking story from Vanity Fair, that Donald Trump Son in LAW Jared cushions
abandoned or decided never to build the National Corona virus Testing programme because of the political calculate
and that the corona virus seem to be hitting blue states and not read states and their plan was Gent Jared. Commissioners, infinite wisdom was left.
Just allow it to run its course and in blue states and
blame democratic governors. This is according to just a blockbuster new report in Vanity Fair, as always with the Trump administration. It's not just immoral
It's also incompetence because, as we now know, the twenty top hot spots in the
country other than California are all in red state. So not only was it immorality, it was also miscalculate
In that this thing wasn't going to spread to read states now understand people died because Jared Cushion or said the viruses in bloom,
It will blame democratic governors. We don't have to really build a testing programme. We wondered early on well when you first of all really early on. We wondered why jeered cushion or even had a role in the government, but
Ok, I mean early on in corona virus. We wondered. Why are we building a testing programme January twentieth roughly within hours of each other? The United States in South Korea got our respective first cases.
They immediately build a testing programme as well as a tracing programme, as well as fever clinics to isolate people and South Korea.
I had one of the best responses to corona virus in the world, while still ranking higher than the United States on the democracy index. It was not some a thought: wild, authoritarian response in the United States. Meanwhile, we didn't develop testing cases started to climb.
Confused messaging, we don't want the W H show test were developing our own test, but our test development failed. Meanwhile,
South Korea had already essentially gotten ninety percent of the control of the virus done and we
still didn't, have testing and the rest is history and we're about to have a hundred and sixty thousand people dead as a result of this virus of
surely the Trump administration started claiming we did have testing? We have the most tests in the world,
We have the best tests in the world, all of those lies which we know to be lies, but there still this kind. Of course,
Denmark of what happened in the middle. Was it merely trump sang? Let's not do
anything because I dont believe this is going to become a big deal. Was there a calculator
of some kind and Vanity fair report is very specific. The cushion or team which had been put shockingly, I mean that the
that there was a cushion or team running. This is a major insanity, but the cushion or team decided, let's not do a national testing programme. Let's start with this, isn't blue states. This is the job of governors, and then we will say this is the fault of democratic governors. Look at how great
these republican governors did now, why did they do it? Well, if you look at the map in early April, the virus was mostly in blue states right, the early hot spots,
were the New York City area, including New Jersey, California, above
There was an early hotspot, Chicago Illinois and, of course, the early hot spots. Where the places with a whole bunch of direct flights to China and Europe, the early places,
that the worst sort of the sources of infection for the world, so there
deal was their gamble? Was they thought it's going to stay in blue states? This is going to be a blue state problem. It was dumb to think that, of course, if you understand virology at all, but that's not cushioning air
of expertise, and so they said, let's just let it run. Let's not develop a testing programme. It'll be great politics because will be able to say look at the failures of
is blue state governors vote Republican in November. Now it's backfired in two ways: it's backfired politically. It's backfired from the point of view of health, which is, of course, the real tragedy. So, first politically it didn't
they in the blue states, and in fact this has been the major issue that has destroyed Donald trumps approval in addition to the economy, which relates to the virus, and
the handling of race issues. Those are the big three, but the virus is the biggest on which you see a large gap b
mean. How do you believe Trump handled it, and how do you believe Biden would have or will handle it? So it backfired politically but more importantly, because I care about people in terms of health, not developing a national test
thing programme early, led to weigh more cases and weigh more deaths period. Now, there's a lot of people continuing to tweet stuff, like trumps, not responsible for a hundred and sixty thousand deaths. Of course, not whose saying that the point is. There are plenty of deaths which are acts
unnecessary deaths due to the federal government's handling? Just look at just about any other country? Very few countries have done worse than us in terms of response, and so that Delta, the Dell
so between. This is a global pandemic and some people were going to die and the number of
we have, which is now one sixty one estimates as it could be three hundred
and by the end of the year I mean it's bad, we're we're getting up to fifteen hundred deaths a day again. Some of that is attributable to I guess now we ve learned its Jared cushioned are to blame, for that
on testing decision. Now, a more important question is,
what is the number of people that Jared cushioned hers? Protocol
led to no longer be alive, and I wanna be really clear right, like they decided to let it rip they decided to let people die, because it was appalling,
go calculation, they miscalculated it they'd. They thought it's gonna kill people in blue state.
And then will blame democratic governors that didn't work out. So that's a disturbing night just nightmare, but it's actually even worse than that big.
As you know, we there's that phrase handling razor written an never a tribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupid
the earlier, we thought that what was going on with just stupidity, or primarily stupidity,
We are now learning that it was malice. This is actual malice. The allegation made in the Vanity fair article is just let blue sky
Peters die, they could have done testing, but they chose not to shouldn't someone go to prison for this people.
Asking about. Oh, you know, should cushioned resign resign. He should be imprisoned and by the way he was never elected, he was never confirmed
he has certainly unqualified to even be in this position, and he made the decision to allow
people to die for a miscalculated political gain. Now we ve talked about like a little kid. Trump deserves a consequence for what he's done, the consequences being voted out in November, because nothing else is going to happen. Jeered cushioned her
is also up on that list of deserving a consequence, but I really want to be clear here. This also is on Trump one of the maybe
Misguided reactions to what we ve learned about chaired cushion here is cushion or is solely to blame trump,
cushioned her and to some degree the buck stops with Trump right. I mean trump all of a bomb, as presidency was tweeting time after time after time, the buck stops with Obama, so the buck has to stop with trump here as well. I hope people are our understanding that so this is another scandal that
in the midst of a dozen others is getting one per cent of the attention that it deserves. What happened to russian bounties modern would happen
the new health care plan that Donald Trump claimed was going to be signed into law. Yesterday, this nothing. I guess it's every
Angle Day, and it has to stop- and this is mean that this is now a type of evil that goes far beyond incompetence, and I subscribe to handling
raise much of what we ve seen during the Trump Administration has not
actually been malice. It's been indifference to been maybe negligence, but
been led by incompetence
This is now a very specific allegation of not incompetence but actual malice, and they must suffer the consequences
whenever getting back the people that died as a result of Jared saying it's mostly in blue states. Let's let it rip instead of developing testing. There is a
funding, new pull out of the red State of Georgia, in which democratic pro
the general challenger Joe Biden, is winning against Donald Trump. By one point. This is absolute
Leon completely insane and
probably not indicative. That Biden is going to win Georgia, and I want to talk about that in a moment. There is actually a lot to talk about here, and this is really
went to get us into a discussion of the role of Poland going forward from now until November. Third, the last time- let's start in Georgia, the last time
The democratic presidential candidate, one Georgia was twenty eight years ago was Bill Clinton and ninety ninety two: it was a squeaker bill, Clinton winner
by zero point. Five percent of the vote over George W Bush, but notice. If you're, watching that there was
third party candidate, Ross Perot, who did get thirteen percent of the vote in Georgia. So the last time that
Democrat one Georgia without a significant third party candidate was nice
teen eighty forty years ago, when Jimmy Carter defeated Ronald Reagan, but that was Jimmy Carter's home state. So the last time stick with me here that it
Mc Craddock presidential candidate, one Georgia in a two way race
when Georgia was not their homes. State was nineteen sixty when John F Kennedy
did Richard Nixon brutally sixty two to thirty, seven, that with sixty years ago? So when we see it
hold today that says, binds winning by one in Georgia to me. It's a signal
it could be a bad November for Trump. It's not real
The signal that binds going to win floored at the average. I'm sorry, Georgia, the average
in Georgia is still trump winning by one point six, but the important thing about the latest CBS News, Paul, which has Biden plus,
one is that it using a likely voter model instead of a registered voter model, and I've talked to you before about the importance of this. If you just survey, adults, that's considered the least accurate, because half the country
about. If you survey registered voters, it is considered more accurate because you're at least restricting the pole to people who are registered to vote. Many registered voters dont vote, but it's more accurate than just all adults, because many adults, just aren't even ready,
certain they never vote likely voter
arguably, if done correctly, the most accurate, and so that's a good thing. That's a good sign that, as we start to see, registered voter models become
voter models, as we closing on November, the polling should become more accurate. That being said, this pole
that has Joe Biden winning by one in Georgia, has a three point: four percent margin of error. So what that means is the pole
actually be in reality. Biden is at forty two point six and trumpet forty eight point, four, like that's what the margin of error mean. So this pole, which has Biden plus one, could
actually be Trump plus six and be within the margin of error. So what that means is. We should take nothing from this other then
everybody's got about whether you think you're state will be close or not. You ve got a vote. I
do not believe Trumbull Wind Win Georgia, but if enough pulsate tight, maybe trump has to spend money. There
maybe, from past a campaign to Georgians, that's a victory. Getting Republicans to half the
spend money in Georgia in Texas, etc. That's a good thing, so the big picture of
This sort of battleground and moderate rates. The red state polling is that Trump is now according to new polling, Lou
by Foreign North Carolina.
Losing by one in Georgia. There is some Texas polling that has trumped up.
On the meaning of it is this
they really bad presidency. That's the takeaway, given the hyper polarized nature,
of the country. Right now, when you look at these traditionally red states- and you see that it looks like it's close, that means that the
are some partisan right, wingers that are realising this is so bad
then I'm at least
right now not yet committed to support Donald Trump
are you, a mega will be Magda. Trump will still get tens of millions of votes that
indictment of our country, no doubt, but there is actually
some reason that is in injecting itself up in bed
itself in the brains of some committed right wingers, but we can't forgive the ignorance if our population had been better at critical thinking and had done
ten minutes of actual research back and twenty sixteen trump, never
it had been the nominee and certainly never would have become, president of the United States and many of the unnecessary corona virus. That's that we ve had which would not have happened, and I
number is likely to hit a hundred and sixty thousand in the next day or two. So what we want to do here is understand, what's happening so that it doesn't happen again, starting with this November, but we can't forget how it happened. We can't
ignore that it could happen again and it still more,
happen again in November. If we don't vote so to go back to Georgia for a moment, it's not just
that there is a margin of error and Trump might actually be winning like that's one. One interpretation would be ok by plus one, but
the margin of error, could really be Trump plus six. That's that one part of it
The other part of it is when you look at a hiss,
voter suppression and Georgia. When you look at the planned voter suppression and Georgia, it should give us zero confidence that these close states
are even going to have a shot at going our way unless we complete
the overwhelm the voting in November. So
it's a sad reality. There's a lot were up again.
Right now and includes five or six different ways in which Donald Trump is going to try to suppress the boat. We have to accept it and work with it and what that
means is so overwhelming voting turn out and
Every election at both sides say it were our sides motivated we're. Gonna have record turn out in very often, particularly among some voting groups. It doesn't happen. We actually have to do that
to overwhelm trump me. Capping the post office, voter purges.
Limiting vote by mail and on and on and on that's the only way forward. The data,
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the David TAT, Michel David Tagamet, dotcom. Sometimes in the political analysis, space we over analyze, obvious things and then other times were under exposing major stories and then sometimes it's sort of both at once and that's the case here. A top trumpet visor went
TV yesterday and three times refused to deny that the Trump Administration was or would accept, was accepting or would accept foreign
campaign assistance and opposition research on Joe Biden and then ultimately ended up sort of saying what we're not accepting it right now
without actually saying we would not accept it. This is both a major story that should be one huh,
in ten percent exposed. But it's also a complete
The obvious position of the campaign,
That requires no analysis, because it is exactly what Donald Trump has been saying for months or years that he would do so. Let's take a look here is
Mason Miller, Bob Trumpet campaign adviser. We ve seen clips of him before wacky guy interview.
Chris Wallis on Fox new Sunday Yesterday- and this is the first attempt from Chris Wallace Asking- has the Trump campaign
information from foreign groups or nationals on Joe Biden or Joe Biden, family
Will you accepted if it were to be offered? This is the first shot at getting an answer to the question. Can you state flat
that neither the Trump Administration nor the Trump campaign has received any information
from foreign groped foreign nationals about either Joe Biden or his family, and can you state of health
Lastly, that neither they
illustration northern campaign will accept foreign assistance
Chris that's a silly question, I mean the folks who have actually taken foreign assistance worthy pollutant campaign for years ago, with the entire shady dossier they put together was from are produced by now we're going to go and beat Joe Biden Fair and Square here absolutely. But I think you should have asked the same question to do. Is perspective, running mates and Senator Duckworth and care and bass, because, just as we saw four years ago, it was the Democrats who took foreign assistance. So look at the specifics of what Jason Miller says. It's a silly question. Well, that's not a denial. It was Democrats who did that. That's not a denial. We're going to feed beat Joe Biden Fair and square Trump has already said. He considers at least checking out for
an opposition research as being okay. So therefore, in their mind, it's arguably fair and square to do exactly what Chris Wallis is asking about. Cyprus, Wallace tries again here is a second time better,
new flatly state that the trunk campaign administration will not accept foreign assistance. This guy.
Chris, I said, that's absolutely silly question we're gonna go and when this race variants asking their democratic right to answer, it is again
denial. This isn't that tough right, Jason Miller says for a second time, that's a silly question,
we're going to win fair and square Trump believes it is fair to win with foreign opposition research, so Chris Wallis is right to be sceptical of the way that Jason Miller is answering these questions. Let's now back up a few seconds and then we're going to do
the third attempt and the third sort of non answer we're gonna go, and when this race fair side letter asking, I suggest, adviser and answer insight answer yes or no question Jason.
Chris, there is no foreign assistance is happening in this campaign. By would ask you to make sure that the Democrats are going to do what they try to pull for years ago, because that's exactly they're going to try to find every possible way to tee and steal this election. A hundred percent there,
is no foreign assistance. That's happening now
again. That's nodded denial that they would accept it and, of course,
This is laying the groundwork for if later it's discovered that the Trump campaign did accept. Foreign opposition research or info
They can hide behind. Look Miller said that at the time they hadn't received any and may be at the time. That was true and they could argue a technicality
annulled Trump and that infamous interview with ABC George stuff and Apple is about a year ago. I think it was might have been was it may have
in that infamous interview with ABC George stuff and Apple is about a year ago. I think it was my
been, nor was it may, of course,
ninety, I don't even remember when it was, but roughly in the last year or fifteen months. Donald Trump said too
Lord stuff monopolise ye. I would look at stuff from Russia. I would look at stuff from China sure why not so Jason Miller CARE
really say? No, because Trump is our.
Said yes publicly. That's the crazy part of it. His answer to can you can
correctly and definitively say that you won't accept foreign help. Is it's not happening right now and it's a silly question not particularly convincing now also there's this focus from them on Democrats? Doing it, that's a new talking point. You heard it use, thereby J.
Miller asked about what the Trump campaign did is or will do
saying well, Democrats, who actually did it? You know Christopher steal. The dossier above above democrats dont need foreign assistance,
information on Donald Trump Democrats don't even need
the domestic assistance, because Trump has done it all anything and everything you can imagine in the light of day and that's why I'm sort of both optimistic and preemptively depressed, if weak,
beat Trump given what is done in the last three and a half years. In a sense, the country deserves tromp for
other for years I mean I don't. I dont know how to say if Trump cheats to win right, if the will of the people actually is for Trump to be defeated and Trump cheats to win, that's different
what, if in a fair and square election, this guy gets reelected unbalanced. Tens of millions of us, of course, don't bull, agree with it, but on
Alan's, don't we deserve another four years if, after all this, we dont remove the guy. If something I've been thinking about a d
well Trump over the weekend carried newspapers around like a prop. This was advanced down
control for an interview. That's going to be aired tonight during which Donald Trump is confirmed.
Did about whether he reads, and there are about three different angles to the story
primary angle is
we're getting crushed on corona virus due to trumps, failed response, and he still golfing all the time Trump Gulfs on Saturday and he gulped on son
he was supposedly signing a new health care bill into law. Yesterday Sunday, he gulped instead no new healthcare bill, but on top of it Trump continues to be concerned. With
optics of carrying around newspapers, rather than actually doing something about grown a virus. So let's go through it Saturday Trump Gulfs and he
spotted getting out of his vehicle carrying just a whole pile of newspapers. Here,
so had a really strange bruise on his hand, which lead to new speculation about some medical issued. But that's that's not even the focus today, but Trump had this pile of newspapers that he was carrying around now.
You ve been care covering from reading for years, and it would
be news to many of you, but because of the russian bounties story, trumps,
reading is back in the news and in an interview coming out tonight with Axios is Jonathan. Swan Trump is confronted
bout. Whether he reads does you read his own presidential, daily briefings and part of the reason? Why is that? As far as multiple reports have outlined, Trump was briefed
the times about the russian bounty stories, although Trump is claiming that he was not, and so in
sinner view. We got a clip of at last week. Its publishing tonight Donald Trump claimed that he has the best reading.
Comprehension of anybody that
Jonathan Swan had interviewed. Here's that clip from last week, they released a preview of tonight's
I wouldn't mind if it reach my desk, I would have done something about it. It never reached my desk because do radio recent breathe. I do a lot. I read a lot they like to set our red. I read aloud.
We have an extraordinarily well.
Probably better than anybody that you ve interviewed in a long time,
I read a lot, I spend a lot of time with at meetings. So, first of all, what
your president and people. Don't even believe that you read things if Guy
very, very wrong. There
no reason to question that Barack Obama read a lot. George W Bush didn't have the like EM
didn't like him, but he read. I think it was like a book a week or a book every two weeks. There is no question that these former president read
from doesn't reed and as far as we know, he hasn't read an entire book a cover to cover
his entire adult life, but Trump always goes too far too far. He doesn't just say I read
He says my reading. Comprehension is better than any one. You ve interviewed recently wine. What does this have to do with? Who Jonathan Swan has interviewed
and likewise now the calculated advanced damage, control of Trump being photographed with newspapers also goes too far he's carrying a gigantic stack
If we were to believe that Trump looked at one newspaper, ok, maybe, but the idea that trump his reading a stack.
Newspapers on his right to play? Golf is too silly to eat
and be plausible. Everything is posturing. Everything is pretence and optics and if anything trump is looking at the pictures in the news.
But maybe he's looking like a headline or to the Bible he cleared.
Doesn't read it. He said it was his favorite bloke, along with his own book. Now there is another side to the store
that I want to briefly mention there was a ton of speculation that Trump went to Walter Reed Hospital over the weekend
for either unknown reasons or is a supposed cerebral event, and that the bruise on his hand in the picture is
from having an ivy and that the newspaper
were actually just meant to kind of cover, the Bruce which didn't work there is
no evidence that that's what happened the White House says he didn't go to Walter Reed. You know that when things have been fishy with trumps medical status, I've told you
about it until we get actual evidence that this is what happened, it's much more likely that Trump just wants to be seen holding newspapers.
To create this idea that he reads knowing that tonight,
there is a major interview believed to be very damaging to Donald Trump being published by actually during which the topic of trumps reading comes up. I think the simplest explanation is the accurate explanation here and if we
other evidence to the contrary, me, you know, I will be here telling you about it. We have of
smell number, which you can call any time that the mood strikes that number
to one nine to David peep here
collar asking. Ok, ok, ok
be Trump is not likely to delay the election, but if he does, who becomes president too good question? Take a lesson David hired wanted to call
give you a little bit of a correction of the you said last week when your talk, my trumps seem tweet about long delaying the election. You said that if the situation were that we didn't have an election by January, twenty that Nancy policy would become the priorities, because trumps terminates by August. We might come to terms with its fire that the first part is right. There terms expire, but the second part is not actually anti blows. He will also be on the ballot and her term expires will really are genuine. Yet there is no election, so she, the entire house, would basically be empty if there were no election and soon, I suppose it would actually not be the prisoner had states. The president dates would be whose third in line, which would be the present approach from a Senate on eighty six year old, effectually, eighty seven by that time, chuckled
So there will be Progress Lee President, an entire house that is completely bacon and the Senate, that is the third vacant based, so that there is actually did it's actually even more complicated and so first of all, it is concerned
evil. It imagine that so the election is really fifty elections right. Each state runs in election.
It doesn't appear as though from can just delay the election from the federal level, but he could ask governors to delay state elections. It could happen
That enough state elections are delayed such that there is no winner in the presidential race, but caliphs
you might have their election and Nancy policy could win. So it's it's actually from what I'm reading conceivable that you
not have enough states running elections to have anybody get two hundred and seventy electoral vote. But if caliphs
you did their election, its theoretically possible that Nancy
policy would be elected to another term, but let's actually platelets. Imagine that the house's vacant. Ok, it would not be chuck. Grassland
what would happen from my understanding and by went over it with producer Pat today, a couple of times there, a bunch of senators who are up for reelection and its to it. One third of the
They would all those thirty five seats would all be vacant, so you would have sixty five senators left because Republic
gains, have way more seats to defend right now than Democrats. The thirty five seats that would be open would be mostly republican seats. This would put the Senate back in democratic control, at which point they would
boats on who become a Senate protests, and usually they go with them
senior senator, which
would be Vermont, Senator Patrick, lay he so so it's actually even more complicated if the election were delayed and no.
There were no no elections at all the Senate. Elections don't happen that leaves thirty five Senate seats vacant the houses.
And ok. The remaining sixty five senators, who are more Democrats and Republicans vote on a new Senate protests. We who becomes president by history.
That would be Patrick lay. He, knowing that the person,
become president. Maybe they would vote for someone who's younger than Patrick he I dont know, but it's like tools,
there's more complicated even than that, and hopefully
it doesn't come to this. I don't believe that it will. I believe we will have a presidential election. We have
they are great bonus, show for you. Today we are going to talk about the new Republican Back Heels ACT will talk about. What's going on in the NBA. We will talk about
sorry American, sneaking into Canada in boats. Yet we
now the ones doing that all of those stories and more
on today's bonus show
Transcript generated on 2020-08-03.