Michael Cassell of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Division talks about the cautious optimism with which investors are viewing the current equity market rally.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Well, the towards changes. A moment's acts markets update for Friday, almost twenty first between region, in the swedish press the firm to get their quick take on what they're, watching and seeing in the market subjects seaward globalized of copper communication said some and I'm joint today by Michael Sound, whose back on smart markets vision, walk back to the programme, Michael thanks to having so after the big crash in March, the Essen Peace Rally back in I could hide this week- the fastest bear market recovered history. What does it feel like on the trading floor or the virtual trading floor this week fairly subdued even for a virtual training, for it doesn't feel like a classic Burma atmosphere at the moment- and I guess you still got a sceptics out there at the mill a summer and in the middle of a pandemic, a bearing in mind that we got to these thresholds on high, as on the latest equity trading, volumes of the sense pre car that they even though say like actual market liquidity and market debt has like recovered
is it going over the past six months and say how we got here this week was on very law, training volumes, and just I guess just a very light risk being moved in general. I think it right down the end, the supply and demand for the stock market. The moment since what was sitting on the floor like on the demand side of night through a cut of unusual sources of buying that might not be flags as much in the mainstream. The fellow is these systematic or model based strategies that we think of the next. society is gonna, be sixty billion dollars worth of buying a global equities from these accounts, and that's it, but was wholly remains quite lie, which it is at the moment and the second one is. Companies are coming out, their buyback blackout, windows off the earnings, and that should also be Pakistan significantly in the short to medium term as well? I guess on the other side of the coin, on the supply side, the equity markets taken at a record. Man is fine issuance of recent months, and even as recently as last week citing right now, as we hitting the quietest weeks, the emperor capital raising, so that's definitely helping us unity These all time high is as well to the other.
supplying a man drivers. And then you have unites continued FED policy support. You have these large volumes of the moment they Why, in this final phase, retrace meant that we saying last month, They're going to take a step back in time The point I mean there's about five points, a trillion. Dollars accounts from the sidelines and that's gonna increasingly looked at equity is not just the growing like it always has, but increasingly income generation. That's it in Bonn, yields and easier and sixty encumber friends, can be deeply negative. Now, once we're just for our future inflation say this is like just a staggering number should underpin the market more broadly over time and its funding leads to the fundamental side. I won't rehash David Customs Code customarily this week or recommend its any business who missed it Like a lot about Isn T concentration statistics here, which are doing a lot of attention in the market, are safe,
the stock of grain, is on a train floor. All learning that you know these ESA ninety five hundred levels that we breaching at the moment a very much of the backup half a dozen or so stocks, here. They all had well leading business models, but the end of the day they will benefit from this statement economy. They all train These high evaluations, given the location of interest rates and rice a moment this. training anytime soon even bear is somewhat rotation in sectors underneath the surface So just a sum it up and say you don't use, but even though the last for market last year, its envelop classic poor market. This certainly doesn't just note that thirty percent of the Essen Peaceful twenty percent of its eyes so many are still reluctant to chase at these levels. You miss the fiscal risk. We have at the moment election risk rights risk. You got the virus unsteadily still lingering, so they get all adds up into cautious optimism of the training for ending. Despite that, I think you should hear the phrase all time high pretty frequently over the next six months. So,
no, it's very hard to generalised by clients, but you're talking to a lot of clients. What's the general feeling out there did they feel like they want to get in on this rally order. They think asset, Sir overvalued at their just like in the hedge, whatever upside they're, going to capture say in general is a degree of scepticism in the client base about the rally of the past weight and there's a little bit about ok. What now attitude as we waited vaccines, wait to see whether GS of consensus growth, materializes This also want people looking at whether the success of the school reopening is gonna come through that's critical for the normalization of the economy, then we are also seeing a lot of clients. Wait for details of the fiscal supporting the election, of course, at the end of the year as well. Repression on when the clients incorrectly died away. You say our devaluation is the hesitation in all the companies that are dragging the Essen. These higher here of strong fundamental cases. The valuation of course, I stretched just given current conditions implies Jimmy agree with GS. Here, I would say
some will decline. Basis mentions made there hasn't, since the choices has just given the little volume that we ve had over the past week. They think will take these eyes on pull back briefly. We might reach us from a couple times for with a higher and that's complying outlined this week as well, sir, I would also say that clients who didn't subscribed to the rally over the past five months- slowly slowly being pulled in as well. many in our realising that the stock market Isn T its economy itself the church and perform quite differently just given the concentration in the US and pay, and then the fact that what has happened and twenty twenty and going forward just accelerates, secular trends that are put in place be is another don't I'm hearing increasingly from clients in terms of how they framing twenty twenty is that this is more akin to a natural disaster than what we saw in your weight of aids and extremely shocked me in a one time drop in economic activity in earnings but they ll ever more rapid progress towards normalization in what we saw. No nine,
years the fully here and I think everyone's cognisant of that there's gonna be serious frictions, but I dont think coin singly and seek the messy de leveraging that before post two thousand and nine spyware one extra point. Seven election risk continues to come up and minus we offer the democratic convention say this is a slightly more focused like what did you mean a thing in the effects of fixed income community, but I speak to think that the general rationale behind that is like a corporate tax, for example- might impact. Yes, he bought hats on a broader? U S! Economy is more nuanced, because those taxes will shop with higher fiscal spending elsewhere in the economy, so let's get low but beyond equities. We ve talked about gold, a bunch recently bought what's another asset class, that's eddying investor attention and why, gold, certainly even a major point of discussion of plants, letting the rally in interesting cooperate so many important things that are important for risk assets over the next couple years. I'd say
a girl, but not unrelated the ESA closets. Getting most attention right now would be real yields. Inflation markets long in yield that type of thing I'd say in my living as a gesture of rarely out of my questions from known rights, coherence and what's happening and really Elden long and rights and how they can take advantage of opportunities. But, more importantly, there weren't about happen. They protect themselves from scenarios like besides me doesn't, and thirteen in the two dozen setting take the train where we gonna, lifting year without an accompanying increase in inflation and growth? We had a small taste of this in the past. couple weeks, and even though the past forty eight hours in its required a few out that outside of some great opportunities and that space, but I think lines of just inside the sensitive areas, stocks along and yields. The real yields its and set a ban, Where are the view that if we get this rising yields, it's gonna be accompanied by groups, so that should win out over time and sends a priest assets rolling, but I think it still aristocrats paying attention to
aside from that machine in Arctic and trace position when the election was seeing. The weak dollar thing is in full swing and how can I find base for the markets still about positioning, whether its position for continued push, hiring gold and silver and then in credit markets, where the same good demand for high using names catching up, see investment, bright side so you imagine in August, is typically slow it. The volume come down from a tight earlier, but has it been a typical August or not so much the? I think, inquired the boy demonstrated at the man and the lowest since February in terms of Essen people. You say some days were that thirty percent lower than the three month average. In that context, whenever you get say a ten percent fall in volume from average, that's a decent drop citizens three times like a slow day etc. Someone drops in other markets. It was saying boat, said a client engagement itself on macro things is still extremely hot. I'd, say
Just then a busy here, I've rolling, sounds engaging glance on that side, diseases, the matter a time and so boy back and swinging. I think my slave it. I will say that all this is typically vacation time. Would you have on your agenda for this August, we'll find your family and trying to down- or I think we're gonna- do an old fashioned american road trip was starting up in Glazier National Park in Montana, we're heading were yellow is dying. Reading the grant etons we're gonna go rely on national park. Crossman. And valleys arches? And can you Landsmen we're heading through the Rockies damper, say: pretty ambitious trip, but I think it's much needed are or are we car the climate appreciates that. What thanks for journeys did Michael makes very much appreciate that. for this week's markets up. Do not exchanged Goldman Sachs in case you, MR check out or other episode this week, which make no reference to David Costume of Goldman Sachs Research on his latest forecasts for yosemites, thanks for listening and hope. Everyone has great and safe. We kept his podcast
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Transcript generated on 2021-07-03.