We're gonna continue talking about Iowa, but first first, today's podcast is brought to you by their flew the weapon my god. I should. I then well if it had been in peace, the time. May they only seek cologne and welcome to the fine tuning politics pie cast Iron Galen drink the I will cost is exactly three weeks away and the race there could hardly be closer. The latest unwind register pull out this past Friday shows all for leading candidates within five points of each other. Sanders is leading the pact at twenty percent war is at seventeen percent Buddha Judge, as at sixteen and Biden, is at fifteen. So tonight we're gonna spent a good amount of time talking about the state of the race in Iowa, as it comes down to the wire. Also just

morning Monday morning, Corey Booker announced he's dropping out of the democratic primary. So what does his failure to launch really tell us about the democratic party? And here to discuss, are editor in chief mate silver. Has a guy Let's go and wealth, they happy birthday thank happy birthday middling under the weather, I'm a birthday, but I am experiencing a birthday. So how does it feel to be twenty nine, but never felt better here. He's like never felt. Also here with us, is in your politics. Writer clam alone I'm good just back from Iowa just in time to talk about yeah? How is it there? It's cold that's as little salty, because people are taxi me from New York being its. Two five and it was like twelve degrees undermined the whole week and if, had to re Iowa. As

but there were two below average. I'm not gonna. Do that, let's not get a broader site could also includes a month. I wasn't as right now I will say this in twenty sixteen mica neat and I were in a car together driving back from something late at night, through, like Iowa cornfields- and we have this conversation that I always think of I'm like nothing? It was. Would you rather walk down the most dangerous street in New York by yourself, or would you rather walk, by yourself in the middle of the night, into a cornfield in Iowa, great commerce, and it was like- and I would you dangerous street- any day the weaker, because, probably now things going to happen to you in the corn field, but if it does its the worst thing the possible- and I haven't- got a really long drive Saturday night from Davenport back to mine, really dark snowy,

captain thinking about France. Narrative about dark, although here with us, is managing editor mica current. How are you good? The other thing just add on declares thing is when you ve lived in the city for a long time you get really used to it there being some. Why now the time? Yes! So when I got home the visit, my parents who live in the suburbs, it's not like, they live in the sticks, and I walk my dog at night. I take my dog for, like super short works, because, unlike terrified how dark it is outside somewhere like if you ve ever gone camping in a place where there's zero light pollution and in the middle of the night, if to go to the bathroom men? That is terrifying We are like, literally at the worst coastal elites right now speakers if I like, hampering the were a battle, I'm just saying I love Gary to pee outside in total blackness, but were to have a segment talk about everything we know about Iowa and we're like its carrier

the city is, I mean a cornfield, not voting angle, every we're from the west for qualified workers, not from where you from the east currents of any outside, fill in the worst pent up eastern Pierre the men were well now that we ve started that our let's talk about Corey Booker dropping out of the primary fraudulent, wise Korobotchka dropping out. Now you listen to me. Was it two percent in the poles, who was now raising a lot of money. He wasn't call for that further debates. He didn't really have a path, Sorry, I can't do. We undermine whole segment there, the whole drama it doesn't have to be a very long segment. I was just so. I cannot like Nate Signet Voice

like us altering yeah, counting Turner Clare? What does his lack of success in the primary tell us about the Democratic party couple things I think? First and foremost, I think the conventional wisdom around frankly, like Corey Booker, an alien Castro, have talked about themselves before they dropped out and probably when they dropped out.

He's a Booker democratic primary voters are for whatever reason- and I think I know the reason- not supporting black candidates in the way that I think people thought they would and and that's probably because people are very worried about the court on court, elect ability, issues in certain midwestern states that have a lot of white swing. Voters and secondly, I think the thing that's interesting about Booker and what I think is it says about our election eco system- is that he wasn't kind of like a new thing right. He was the bright and shiny object from fifteen years ago, or something right, but the idea that Bernie Sanders is kind of frankly, a little bit still of a new thing as a national phenomenon. Even though you know his new newness is for five years old and someone like you know, PETE Buddha Judge stole some Corey Booker's, thunder literally on a couple of points being the Smarty pants road scholar and being the precocious mayor, and I think that

The big difference for Booker's campaign is just there that it was like a dollar sheen and that's it and I think a lot of bucker supporters say that's not fair. The skies are really talented. Speaker he's a you know the brilliant report, more qualified or more for more quota. Yell has moral, electoral and elected office. Experience ends. You know I just fell flat. I think, for all those reasons I'm not inclined to like ascribe alot of meaning to Booker's failure. Or to draw lessons from it, because as clear sat on the one hand, ok, maybe being a black candidate, the search for an electable could unquote candidate. Hurt him right on either hand who does Booker bear the most kind of electoral similar. These two Obama, who was super electable right and in some ways, since Obama Democrats have been looking for someone to recapture that coal Oh yeah, I mean you, would

give me. I still think, when a more interesting moments mama, relatively recently, the primary you have rich donors and some establishing typed expressing dissatisfaction with the tap for yeah and, instead of when I we think the most obvious I'll turn as well, which were at the time Harris is still running. So, let's get Mine Harris closure or Booker they. Instead, I more exotic ideas like Michael Lumber, again devolve Patrick right, weird. That was a pretty weird moment, so, ok wide in pucker succeed. I I think that simplest explanation is for some of the reasons we ve been talking, but also just up. It was a really credit field. Most candidates are going to fail. Booker, you know was crass clarity and was crowded out by Buddhist. Agenda. Smarty pants land was crowded out by houses for a little bit, maybe and the like alternative to bide an establishment lane and total just never came together. From that

I'd like a very Polly sigh answer, but it's you know well mean yeah. You can never say that hey, look, Dubai, Bernie Sanders Leather, Elizabeth Warren take those three right or all big, very popular brands and that Biden and to some extent sanders but more Biden has a lot of support and faith me african, american community and endorse and so forth, threw out. The primary with binding and that community for the most part, but still I'm so someone who, I think, I'm on record as saying like, I would have thought it be unlikely wind up with a primary between All these really old white people, especially to lie kind of white men who were no old new same age, almost one in two and it's like I'm not. Maybe it means that. I Danny, doesn't matter as much but also as a sign of like the support that Biden has in the black community. You describe book or a little, but as part of the air to at least the image that Obama had. Does buggers lack of

says tell us something about the appeal of an Obama type in the Democratic Party today, or is it Biden has more of actually the air to Obama's political success because he was his VP. Can we draw any conclusions there? We could maybe tentatively draw some. I think both of those are probably true. I think, maybe Biden being Obama's VP counted me more than a lot of people, including myself, anticipated among voters, and also you know. We ve talked at various points about one things Obama's best known for and that workers, often on forest, combat optimistic message.

And when you are running against Trump, how much our voters really hankering for an optimistic message and to what extent you know with all their energy on the left in the party? To what extent I don't mean all the energy I mean just there's a lot of energy and the left in the party. To what extent is optimism confused food acceptance of the status quo and just softness on policy re history. So I yeah, I think, both probably play some raw, but again pardon me, thinks that you re ran the simulation of this primary, a hundred times that Booker's in the top here in a big chunk of them, But I don't know it's notable that ok, I've never saying in the top here the three Canada came into this campaign with the biggest profiles are on the top, And then we have Buddha judge, so maybe there is a heritage. Is one where alike

I own army simulations as they would come up. That's funny that one's he did have the wisdom. I guessed it very explicitly say I am carving out this middle lane, where I am not Joe by but I am also not on the left, and I do wonder if Booker were club HR had done that sooner. They could have game retraction. I think there's a weird with the candidates that- urged out of the Senate, Pritchett Girly, frankly Booker and Harris there was this kind of, and maybe a little bit war and adona. There was a little bit of this uncanny valley where you were kind of like did. You may be believe too much hyper

How progressive the bardo locating and then you got into the campaign is a unique. So maybe I misjudges there was something weird going on with that. I think that the Senate, Canada in particular, I think it's notable vote. They all seem to correct course at some point in the campaign war. I totally agree with that, but also to what extent does poker being black hair is being built a club of our being woman complicate any pivot to the center. We know voters see Canada of Color, see women as more liberal Then they are so I wonder

robot. If you know, if Harris, for example, Booker had made an explicit pivot to the centre in the way that booter judge did whether they would because of identity, been left a little between a rock and a hard place where you're turning off some progressive voters by rhetorically tacking to the center. But at the same time a lot of you know, that's a non college. Educated white Democrat at aren't giving you credit for moderation because of your identity doesn't make sense. So that argument is kind of you would have had to come out of the gates, as the big ten somewhat moderate, unify our Obama instead of coming from the left from the start. Maybe that's easier. If you can, I think it's. It probably is If you come out of the gate, but even then I'm we saw this disc and work to your advantage. It worked a bomb advantage right where, Obama, was in a lot of ways a unified, but it was always talk about the benefits.

Of compromise, but the laughter I'll behind behind Obama right, so you can kind of beer. You can kind of be a safer and be everything to everyone and maybe if they came out of the gate they would have been, but the opposite. It is like the Rubio problem, where you're nothing to no one bright or a well. That marks the end of Corey Booker's run for them. Eric nomination and let's talk about the state of a race in Iowa, but before we get to that, today's podcast is brought to you by Casper Mattress, it's definitely and the thing about winter is that it's scary outside, but beautiful and cozy inside, especially when you're staying with Casper from award winning mattresses to pillows sheets and do bays Casper transforms the way we sleep and keeps us cosy. All season Casper Mattress is an award winning balance of comfort and support for layers of premium. Farm are designed to provide pressure, relief for all night comfort from betting bed frames and even a dog, bad Casper has

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what that Paul sat so clear, how much should the new cells or Paul kind of shift our conception of the race in Iowa, concussion and by the way. If listeners are not familiar with insulter, they can go back to the first. Like long piece, I wrote for five hundred and thirty eight in twenty sixteen, I profiled her and- and I kind of talked a little bit about like the history of the poem like what makes good pulling, which I still think is a pretty good and accessible primer for the stop, the title of the pieces and Selzer. Is the best pollster in politics and some of what I talk about in the peace is just like how it's a high quality, old fashioned kind of coal in the sense of the domain register to their great credit, invest a lot of money in this pole and there's a reason why everyone kind of really excited when one of these comes out, and especially with it. So I think we should pay attention to this one. It also makes

a lot of sense to me that there has been a bit in a big shuffle in the pool. Since the last time it came out which it was the last Paula came out was a really good pull for Buddha Trade and it's a really good pull for sanders and to me that stuff tracks, because in Iowa. You have a super, highly informed group of voters you ve, been watching the debates they ve been watching, say the wine cave controversy or is Elizabeth, worn, flip flopping? Is she not electrical enough Bernie Sanders the Oji Progressive, and that's why you should vote for right like there's this they are super at. It is a population that is incredibly attuned to the stuff. I was that an event outside to Moyne this weekend and of voter literally recited back the grids.

Of the Divine Register Paul to me. It was. It was quite striking so amazed that ended, but I think that is indicative of the kind of high information voters that you're seeing in the Caucasus and Enzo. So it makes sense to me that there are kind of a tune too well. What I think on people said is like the Pandit tree of the democratic armoury mate. Now that we have the model, maybe you can give us a quantified answer to question: how much should this new piece of information and change our conception of the race in Iowa or even the race? More broadly think the answer is not that much Emmy depends right because, like it's easy there, like overrate and say oh now, centres their front runner and I were well now- there's been no a four way: clown car, in which he seems like a little bit more like to emerge then say warrant, for instance, but not that much more likely to emerge

This is why I said a model if you can plug the day that literally into the model somebody enters the poll we press ago, and in this case I think it had Biden chances falling from forty one percent. It thirty, eight percent in our overall and in Santa from like twenty one to twenty three anonymous memorize. But something like that right. So you know it's not trivial. I would think if I went to Fort When did thirty, seven thirty, eight. That would be somewhat Mattel, all right. But it's also like you know, if you their prices on like betting marketing. And what changes the national merit ever mean. That's clearly, there clearly also people who are over compensating or it a little bit- and this is a case where sometimes we would say it's just one pole. You can almost kind of ignore here, we wouldn't say that because number one to really high quality Paul number to have been very many Iowa poles of any kind. Recently On the other hand, like with the accept binds number being pretty mediocre forbidden to be honest, is fifteen, for the other. Three

it was kind of in line with where other recent polls have been, and so it's not that much of a shake it necessarily just in general. Should we consider this anybody's to win of those four wheel cook clearly, any before can win. Iowa, which is not their equally likely to win it, but I can actually kind of closer to equal. Then a lot of things right and the question is like which four can is most poised to. Take advantage of, and I will win in? The issue would seem to be in this order right by number one, because by leads a national poles if he gets a further bouncer avoids it then end down so whatever right that he's kind of in pretty good shape Sanders. Our model likes his position in New Hampshire ended, as that would leap potentially to three winds in a row, which would be very nice position for him. Frankly, abounds ripple like worn in British. It's kind of like need, like the bouts for my right Nepal that could use a frankly abounds Repellor warning It's kind of like need, like the bouts from Iowa right. By

doesn't about his ahead and senior, AIDS, like good medium sized bounds to help him when new, Hampshire and Nevada actually wonder a little bit it's hard to say, because there are still three weeks to go until I went to the media. Narrative and expectations contained so much in that time, but actually wonder a little bit that are our model showed that Paul being a little helpful to war? And actually so I wonder if she still within striking distance, whether the kind of expectations game is kind of setting up perfectly for for war and one that we can expect that mean one thing it is definitely true. Is that no candidate, top for anyone obviously is particularly close, like having won a consensus of the party right. You people who are getting NASH twenty seven percent of the vote and binds case- and I were you know it was a nice for, but he still at twenty percent until the kind of question of like who do you pick up after that?

right, how do you go from twenty percent to fifty percent? That's kind of the question that can remains open for people, but yeah we're. I did like the pole worn a bit. She's also had some national poles recently that were like a bit stronger and so maybe is well timed Clare. You talked about how close our voters are to the campaign and the new cycle. Is there a candidate or couple candle to have a clear ground game advantage in Iowa and is not reflected in this pole, I would say, probably most visibly. It's probably Sanders warm Buddha Judge in part, because of that

like any input for budgets like that they made the investment they made the idea for their campaign that they got up they after. When I would ask you whether you know Biden has an interest Biden that is the Pragmatists, Canada right. It's not. This is not to say that he doesn't have a ground game, but it's like it's a little less word of mouth. He kind of vibe of its kind of people say if people are supporting Biden, it's kind of like will, of course, or supporting Biden, he's the pragmatic choice. I didn't go out and follow cancers around or anything like that, but that is my sense of like those of the camp campaigns have probably the most like word of mouth or grass roots. He kind of on an authorities know that support either. I think that road, but as clear, also set binding, does, however, of groundwater and eye when we did a peace on this, but, like the data suggest a recent terms of like what you can really measure easily

from outside that the top for candidates ground games are a pretty equal in Iowa. Again that that, at least in terms of what we can see from the outside, but is just another example of like has ever been a point where there has been such a four way: pile up in Iowa, I'm just pretty unusual to have for Canada to her back closer in the first stage, but again no mere paid is way behind the three nationally and so on, quite like its, but ya mean it's in Iowa and by the way one thing it's important to speak. Ground game there is that so in Iowa, you literally line up into preference groups in the Caucasus and if you don't get fifteen percent some until a bit higher for small precinct Molotov fifteen percent and you have to go realign with another candidate or try to steal, like the small the candidate to steer supporters or whatever else right, unlike there's a lot of scale,

process and because you have frankly off working as dynamic and be above if you're, twenty percent you know that's going to be below fifteen percent and some precincts have enough of your best pre sex until all four t's cams going to deal with bike is very close race, where your skill at like persuading also join your campaign from the style camper, the club. Tar or delaney yeah. This is like the huge thing in the Caucasus and its find that needs bring up style again, like I was talking to a couple voters this weekend, who said were committed to causing for style, but they were Sanders event and their risk like we're, trying to figure out who our second choices and force Our voters that you probably gonna go with the second choice right. So so the idea, of your first choice might be even closer but who's. Your second choice, you know, is it Joe Biden? Is it Elizabeth WAR at right, like those things do what're you know so so it's kind of interesting to see, for instance, like open secrets, you know published something last week where it was

worn and Castro shared the most individual donors, which is like an interesting proxy for ok in Iowa, not unwilling Castro was making such a huge splash, but the idea of like who shares that support right and who can you perhaps count on and who can you target in an actual physical caucus room to say come on over? We we share a lot of values we draw on the media, talk plenty about ground game in elections is I want a case where it actually matters more than in a lot, other scenario or does it always matter why Why are you always giving specific we kind of two ground game? And I always matters in the sense that elections are our turn out and persuasion games right, you you want to have your people come out to vote and the people that you don't have yet you wanna convincing turn out I, what is so small it's all about. Will you make a commitment to come? thus with me, will you show up for this activity that is sort of it?

That's right, I think, and it does I think, in that state that does kind of become for people. That's, like woo hoo, your first time clock saying right. It's like this thing, so the idea of kind of like piping up people and are they turn out and like hoping it doesn't snow or whatever it is like that is a big deal. I do think that that's true and- and this The state is so inundated by ads and and all the staff that it does make a difference. I think to these people who were there saying, ok, who have actually spoke like what campaign of actually spoken to you who came to my door, who seems to be kind of putting the effort in law, so just as as Clara neighbours. But in I, where you get to bite at apple, essentially the ground game, those to influence a race right. It's who you turning out to cork ass and then host, but in I, where you get to bite at apple, essentially the ground game does to influence a race right. It's who you turning out to carcass and then once the fifteen percent threshold kicks in you get another bite at the airport.

As as these guys we're saying in the room, persuading people what exactly so, it's like it's kind of there's, this extra ground game impact point lover. Point we're gonna continue talking about the contest in Iowa, but first today's podcast is brought to you by upstart between hitting the gym. Healthier or learning a new skill. There's lots of ways we can better ourselves in the new year. A great way to do that is by tackling high interest credit card debt. Upstart dot com is here too

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How, though your upstart rate is checking, you re only takes a few minutes and again that's upstart dot com, slash politics, we're back with our conversation about the state of the race in Iowa and as we are mentioning it's pretty uniquely clustered and I'm curious this time around. This means that somebody could could win. Get the plurality by you. No one to three percentage. That's right, you know say the winner gets twenty two percent and the next person gets twenty one percent in terms of delegate count that matters very little, but could the fact that its also closed just frustrate the message coming out of eye when make it less significant. Well are also three different ways at can I announced the vote. Count. They're gonna, announce account and we become come in before this realignment fifteen percent thing, the vote count after that, and they are now with called delegate equivalence, which is a traditional way of doing it

which is, I think, technically, you are elected people to attend state conventions in Iowa, which then like Delegate's, the National can So it's how many state convention delegates your estimated to have, and so, if it's very close you could have let's say Biden leads in initial preferences. Warren leads A realignment in Sanders leads in state delegates. Right, Oh, you could definitely have like ambiguous outcomes that way, does not just mean that whoever spends most successful when's or does it mean that, like New Hampshire is even more important than I would becomes wash look, if I were had eight hoping to get about set of. I were then. This ambiguity would worry me. I've put it like that. Well that make sense- and I dont disagree with that- but you can also see it kind of helping someone get about. You know with the initial vanka vote, count comes first actually will at the same time

well even sell. You know you could imagine worlds where let's say Biden is ahead in the initial though count, but then Warren is ahead in the reality kid at one and the delegates, one that being spun as as like strength for war in in sort of like her being more acceptable, the other candidates, in other words, like figure out who will get about out of a state like Iowa, is so complicated. To begin with that, I think these, the the ambiguity here and how close it is, could influence the bouts by dampening it by just confusing it, but I can also see it like influencing about by screwing with expectations and there's a bigger bats. I think it'll probably be that island matters.

Two Warren and Buddha Judge is my sense, because Biden Sanders, I think, can make us stronger case, for we have strong states coming up. We ve got a super Tuesday strategy in binds case, but for Buddha Judge and worn for whatever, like Buddha Judge, come obvious right. It's like he staked his claim on Iowa and for what burn. I think the accumulated accumulating factors of people worrying about her being Koran quote to Liberal for a general election. The fact that she is a woman, the fact that there is kind of like a little bit of momentum against turd the Sanders team kind of pushing this lake she's she's the candidate of the elite. If you wanna go for real progressive for Bernie he's yogi two meters, I have some sense and could be offered no, but that

Those are the two candidates that would be hurt or helped more by the results of Iowa whatever they are so because there are, they are, I think, little bit more vulnerable than Sanderson and binding. How traditionally, can we quantify what about is coming out of our? How does the model do that? So it looks at the finnish first and kind of what share load. You get relative to expectations and we define expectation regular way, which is how you're sending his national poles. So, if but when I want to be like what is only an eight percent national poles right. So therefore, pretty impressive, the serious candidate now ripe so yeah in some sense of your front runner, you have or to lose? Then to gain in Iowa right, like Biden Surely, if you can bypass Iowa and strike out from the cap or he surely prefer to do that, because you know how shot to win

the time he won't and the downsides probably bigger for him and the upside is because he applied as a year, the national front runner and like you're supposed to win Iowa, except, I think, he's like I led kind. Perceived as national front runner, even though he is, and so that's like kind of second order, narratives Clare, you already mentioned a little bit of the tension between the Warren and Sanders Camp with regards to Sanders, putting out talking points about war and not being you're, forgetting progressive agency being the candidate of the early, this is all actually going to come to a head in the debate Tuesday we're gonna have a reaction. Pockets were we're not gonna prettier too much today. But what are the dynamics, as things currently stand, debate stages, the non aggression pact between Sanderson Warren over actually dont think either of them will be particularly confrontational with each other on stage. Actually dont think disposition really there.

To do that with each other, but obviously there some real stuff going on there, and I think there is some truth to it right in the sense of white college. Educated voters in the Democratic Party do like Elizabeth Warren quite a bit and then the demographics are can be very different for Sanderson

and support. I do think it's pretty unfair, for this hinders campaign to kind of say she's in the pocket of the elites. That kind of thing, but you know what talking a voter she do hear people saying stuff of why supporting Bernie above all, as the foreign and people will say, why think she actually still has some corporate ties it then she takes corporate money right liked. I think that that senses trickling in and I think it comes from fairly or not the fact that her supporters do tend to be what I think was the demographic of a lot of Hilary supporters and twenty sixteen and Bernie that's cause kind of classic Bernie tactic rate was going,

so after lake. Now these are the people who arts for the systemic changed I'm for, of course, you know factually that seems to be kind of a misrepresentation of warns entire campaign line and she does have you know she's, better black support them Buddha judge for sure, and so it sets a bit unfair but interesting. It was a bit surprising. I thought- How should it pushed back? I mean look in some ways. First of all the level of, and time is printed is actually not that high compared to like two thousand eighty or ninety. Ninety, two or years like that, we need a technocratic stated, could game. I S. Kind of freight nerves happens later on right, but you this kind of weird race, where, like the third and fourth place, Canada but the gotten more incoming, friction and like the first and second place candidates, you know, I think the Sanders folks, The media dismisses our chances. Well, actually, it's a nice. Sometimes because your voters can feel like you're, an underdog in your aggrieved.

And you don't get the same scrutiny that you might if you are perceived as the front runner. Sir the screening that war and got what was it like October, when it was kind of decided by those guys that she was the feminine our right, I mean you know she got scrutiny that shifted very fast. Unlike So you know it's kind of a nice thing if you're, frankly, Biden or there is no kind of little underestimated, but Sure that's going to continue on until the rest of the primary and like we do. We do in this kind of what I think Michael was getting out before. We definitely do have time for, a shift. In the narrative pre Iowa I'm, not sure that who has aunt. Em today is particularly indicated, an indicative of who I momentum three weeks from today and, of course, our next stop between here and that day, as the debates the others plays out and how the candidates other great each other.

And we'll have our response by costs, but before we end today's podcast, I want to get to one of our favour questions to ask. We planned on asking this at the beginning of the show, but we under the time required Booker instead and that's good use of polling or bad use of pulling, and this pertains to Tom Steiner. So a Fox news pole came out showing Tom's dire at fifteen percent

I've- Caroline a second only to Joe Biden at twelve percent in Nevada, way, trails, Biden and centres and is tied with worn and those are all big jumps from the last Fox NEWS pole. Two types of responses to this poor were one incredulous ness and to frustration from Democrats that a candidate could, seemingly by support in the polls. So let's discuss those two reactions as kind of the uses of this poor. First of all, do these pull seem like outliers? Is there a reason to believe that history has moved up so significantly in Nevada and South Carolina? I think the reason to believe he's moved up as this, Paul Fox NEWS. Pity's sake. Smack of let me finish, we haven't got Nepal in South Carolina or Nevada, and quite some time point number one point number two Fox NEWS pose a really good. Poles And point number three sure could cut.

You ire yeah, but it can. In outlier, or an sire style still have gained right. Just maybe not as much as is poles are showing but full or there's like a real world. Theory that we have at hand to explain his rise in the polls, which is he spending shit loads of money advertising in these states. So I think I think I think there is reason to believe it's it's real for now, yeah, I think it's like It's like, maybe it's not a pulling outlier, but potentially an outlier in life. Right though, I felt like music you not. I went and watched a bunch of this dire ads and, what's interesting, is I think, up until late throughout this campaign, Tom STAR has been known for only for three things. One he's a billionaire too. He really wants to impeach Donald Trump and saying that forever and three he really wants to

Climate change is central issue, but if you look at a lot, Those adds that he's running their ads about the economy and their ads about how I'm style is a billionaire and he can take Donald Trump to task. So yeah he's probably one of a couple candidates on the euro. There is also making a kind of like non like, I think he kind of nose like even though climate change is important- it might seem like a squishy issue to people. You know it's not squishy the economy, I'm a businessman, vaubois right so less. That was kind of interesting to me, but I do think it's probably and a liar and life worn out iron. The sense of it's not true to say, like he has the Nevada and South Carolina airwaves all to himself sure, but he certainly has a more to himself now than he will. Once I won New Hampshire, innocent Nevadas, I kind of transient, but we're going to insult several of his forces therapy.

It's a simple usual you have like a lot of. It will move their newly have low rates him turn out. It's also a cock, a so called. Low turn out in general, you know it's kind of a they were there not necessarily like in the thick of As far as like getting a ton of information about campaign and so that maybe we're advertisements move the needle more. Yet it's it's. I mean, as as far as cock estates, go Nevadas like the opposite of Iowa. We're like half the people. You'll talk to another matter, like those account caucus when his election, then they get only about half the turn out despite having about the same population. But look appalling averages, which you know our men took account frau liars to some extent, it's a little tricky trick. It just had hasn't been attentively,

Pauline, we now have dire at eight point, two percent in the vodka and but pop up ten point four percent in South Carolina somewhat like I saw nothing. He leads Buddha judge pretty easily in South Carolina so for the highest democratic actress, commenting on for example, saying you know, this is just an example of how you can buy elections is. It is simple, as money buys support in this case, and is it that simple in general are their complaints vow that you just bought his round of a debate stage, he bought his way into second place in South Carolina, or is it more complicated than that like the message matters etc? I think it's a little more complicated. I'm sure the message matters. I think it's probably easier to buy yourself a bump in the polls than this to buy or sell, actual votes. Yeah does, especially after someone does when our bright and New Hampshire right

then- and now I mean how soft is that support and react there right now, styrene kind of pushing on an open door, no one's pushing back on either side soon. You know at least three other colleagues will be pushing back, but began self a new cycle, but he got himself new cycle got into the debate so, like their complaints are valid and that censure eligible noting that you spending a lot of money, and I went to have her as well and not registering there. So it does look like when somebody is pushing back on the other side of the door. He doesn't get that's a lot of stuff, that's all I've style, billboards and stuff, but watching tv by the way you know who's, pushing on a door in a lot of states right now with no one pushing back when birds Bloomberg I've seen his ads in New York in New York doesn't vote until we are April MAX rose just endorse Bloomberg up up up up, and with that I think we are done with today's Picasso, did you now and again happy birthday feel better since, like one of the shortest plus we ve done, it throws up a solving sick kind of actually is

gratitude for historic. Togo sizeable preserve about along so took up a lot of my time. Thank you. Clare. Thanks happy birthday, Nate we're glad you're born I am glad that I was born also end shatter, MRS Sommer. Thank you both for the work that is done. Using a credit boys Monday, more work on Wednesday four hours a day, twenty five doubting proven fact- and thank you MIKE I thank you. Pleasure spending. My Monday morning with apologies, and we ve got a lot. Plan for the rest the weeks. So let me give listeners a little bit of a run down. We're gonna have a reaction podcast to Tuesday nights. Debate will also have the next instalment. Of the primary project out on Thursday. Also other We have a live, show in Washington DC and there's just a few taketh laughed. So you, join us it'll be fine head over to five thirty eight dot com slashed live for more details and tickets.

My name is Galen Drouet, twenty chow. Isn't the control room you'd get in touch by emailing Us Ipod, Podcast, aside, thirty dot com? You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments if your affair, I shall leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store. Tell someone about us. Thanks for listening and Wilson, Her