I feel, like the chances of me having some sort of sound interruption are kind of high realize him in the room with my cats, new automatic letter box. Comparable I've shut the cats out. So hopefully they won't come in weight. But if the cats have been locked out of the only incidents that word trigger automatic winter boxes of you triggered it. It's epics till put down the cold open, He knew and welcomes the fact that in politics, podcast, I'm doing group today, Thursday April. Twenty ninth is the one hundredth day of the bite in presidency. It also the day after guidance, first addressed to a joint session of Congress because technicalities? It wasn't considered a state of the union address, but for all intents and purposes, that's what it was. He focused on his three big spending

the one point: nine trillion dollar american rescue plan, which has already become law and then the more than two trillion dollar american jobs plan and the one point eight trillion dollar Americans families plan, which he hopes to get through conquered he frame them as an investment in the middle and working class and described the? U S. As in a global competition with China, Senator from South Carolina TIM Scott gave the republican rebuttal. He criticised Democrats for keeping schools closed for too long during pandemic and accuse Democrats of stoking racial divisions in how they talk about racism in America. Today, we're gonna take a look at binds first one hundred days and office and review both what he bite and an Scott had to say in law night speeches here, need to do that is senior politics, rider, Perry, Bacon, Junior Highbury is Eagle you to also her, thus is five thirty contributor and Marquette University political Science, Professor Julia Azeri. Her research focuses on the american presidency, welcomed Julia things from hurting me

great to have you. I also want to say before we get going, that Perry has some exciting news? That is also a little bit sad for us here on the pie cast Perry is taking a job as a columnist at the Washington Post. So, first and foremost, congratulations, Perry. That is a great job and you deserve it, and I look forward to reading what you're right there were all excited for you here at five, thirty eight, and I also hope that you will come back and say hello to us from time to time on this package. I know it means that you won't be with us every week anymore and that's the sad part, but again, congratulations, lunacy, Galen, avenges, a great part of my job, This package is, like you, delete a really great job hosting in creating a great discussion. Some grateful this opportunity in the listeners. I've enjoyed your emails to me. Sometimes another nice This in turn denies any each time almost everything formed a little bit

I was a little bit. We have really great audience here both on another when the articles and on the policies- and I am grateful for the listeners and hope to you all of you- Know- stay with five, thirty, eight and hopefully follow me in what I'm doing as well. I'm sure everyone absent We well and Perry. You you'll still be with us next week, so on Monday. Well, I guess send you off more in style, but I wanted to let listeners know that now that that information is out in the public. So let's begin with last night speech and we can talk about binds first, one hundred days more broadly in a minute, but first of all Perry what was bindings all in his address to Congress last night. It seems to me that he spent the first half first. Forty seven is talking about the economy. Talking about covered, and if you see there was that of laying down the time when I assume the staff is one revisers assume people are watching, the most needed was a little those started up.

and there was a lot about kind of like here's. What I've done to help people get jobs through the food to the initial step this package, more money, pastors check. Saunders I vigorously on the economy. from the stimulus building is a big bug is an economy in terms of infrastructure bills. That tells me he's kind of like saying here's what I've done it, help you in this sort of most practical ways possible, covered the economy. Here's what I'm going to do- and I thought there was a most important point. we still have that I thought he also addressed ratio shoes- immigration, foreign policy, voting rights, whether he, the first have a sort of where he's focused, I think, in the second ever scan of taking up, thinks he's out of head to address in a state of the entire speech Julia. How did you process what Biden was trying to converse with his speech to Congress and maybe do speeches matter all that much I as well yeah, so I've been thinking a lot about this and the alarm about the waste

President are limited in how much they can persuade members of Congress and cannot change the political situation are their way. Providing, can meaningfully alter the political incentives of members of Congress and ensure that is mostly no it's given the giver of razors edge margins of breathing in Congress in american politics right now that, a slight marginal change might really make a difference, and so here we are thinking about Who is the audience for this speech, and I think that was a lurking idea in a lot of comments on the lifelong last night there was a perception that MRS biting higher trying to trying to distance himself from more divisive frameworks and more divisive issues, and instead caitive seem very

middle of the road and unreasonable and policy focus and yet, at the same time proposed some pretty significant policies and even though it was journal. His hurry. You hook, Britain, another rail, but at the expense of the policies, and also the nature of them and the ideas behind them. so I think that everything about under the audience was even gets partly kind of people on the fence. People in the Middle modern Democrats mention Cinema, their constituents, middle liberal Democrats and in the house, the press- and I think some of what bite hopefully, aims to do was to keep the focus, these core issues and cod encoded in particular are issues were binding, hasn't had been age and where their issue, areas where Democrats typically have an advantage undercutting keep the debate on those terms nationally and keep this sort of sense that seems to have emerged in the mainstream,

Press in a somewhat evident public opinion and bite in it. This is in minutes nation. This policy focus competent, moving forward on bread and butter priority issues, and so I think that we have now is a goal and based on what I'm seeing in the sort of mainstream legacy, media seems like it was. It was fairly successful, yeah Perry. What do you make of that strategy? Is he write that pudding while the pandemic first and then the economy front? center and pushing things like guns, legislation or policing or climate change, voting laws etc. To kind of the back part of the speech we're a lot of those issues, kind about one or two lines and then quickly move to the next. Is he write any electoral since I'm not? you sure I guess I night is people are poorer, sorted in a very poor Some way there are? There are

it is in the middle, but only those voters in the middle are able to ignore the other cultural issues that happening You like the Georgia Voting LAW, was a huge sting in that happened in the world that people can have their on the matter. Whether binding spoke about it for one sentence or their teams, and so sure. I am not convinced that this talk about the void. Culture actually is brilliant. as you can, the culture fight is happening in America Voters are gonna notice it even if it doesn't happen, imbibing speeches, I don't I'm not really convinced of their having it terms like dealing with the country's problems in ways in bills that can pay because a reconciliation Biden can be passed, his economic policies. He can't pass gun control, mills, voting rights, bills, etc. in some ways. Guessing on, like Julie Mission mentioned, is that under the eyes of their bills, that can pass as what he was talking about. there are then mixes. He should get through to get some things dawn in the back. Half of the speech was mostly things. He actually kid

done in foreign policy, which I would say, voters what we don't care about. So, let's drill down on that for a second in the category of things that he could potentially get done are the remaining four trillion dollars that have are divided up into two separate plans: one the american jobs Plan, which is infrastructure with some other social programmes and then the american families plan, which is childcare, Pre K, you know extending benefits to parents with children, etc. Community college things like that That's you know six trillion dollars. The two trillion for the american Rescue plan has already gone through this remaining four trillion and everything that is associated with it. What's the likelihood that it happens down to the situate seas and considered. The pressure on the swing votes in Congress, and then they can a Senate parliamentarians rules about what can be done. The reconciliation I guess getting to that that filibuster threshold seems pretty. Unlike

These seem like the best bet for shaping constituency expectations? One of the things that I keep thinking about is the way in which we ve had a number of successive presidencies and other politicians who run in kind of an anti system way. Unlike the system, this system doesn't work for you. I guess I'm really appealing message to people, but no one has been able to deliver on that change, and this really goes back to the abounded ministries, who it is true, the trumpet menstruation too, and I wonder, to what extent particularly for thinking about kind of lake, the more moderate and old school men republican members of Congress. To what extent some of their constituents may start putting pressure on them to produce to produce results on these kinds of policies that affect people's lives, and that the degree It's the sort of anger. Politics is not gonna cut any or that may be wishful thinking on my part, but

wonder when people might serve shifting their their thinking and unseen opportunity to demand getting something from politics and the degree to which that might not totally cross party lines but be able to shift coalitions. Little bit jelly Russian was like Humboldt with bill. My pass, my senses a trillion dollar proposal mention. My guess is that the end of the day we have something like a two trillion dollar bill pass with only democratic votes, because mansion is weary of a big spending billions on that's my fresh- and I guess that leaves me this point which is like. I think I suspect Julie will disagree, because I know she writes about the the agenda setting power of the presidency, but I would have probably learned more if Joe Manchin, to giving a ninety minute speech about what he's four than with Joe Joe Biden said things I basically already knew he was for

better up to Congress of Christian Cinema, Joe Mansion, and maybe the House Moderates and given three, some version of. Like eighty minister speeches, I would probably learn more about what can happen this year. Are we alone bear any to think a little bit about this, and I worry that a working I will try to move this into a sort of political science weeds about the filibuster period in whatever, but like There's a recently been right, there's a reason they didn't. They don't have that platform and they have to the extent that now the new media environment provides everybody's a little bit of a platform they live with. only model Lee chosen to use it and they use it. I was in both of these people have normally use it to signal they're kind of maverick penis in different ways, and never keenness has equality, ozone, and so the opera bite in, I think, is frame issues in such a way that either those too

legislators can get on board, despite their Mavriky Agnes right. I'm just gonna keep using this terrible word that I think the Europeans live in two thousand and five all over again. I know I know sorry, I was I been in this european head space for totally other reasons, so anyway, I think you either it's like this is so important in this is this is such a priority and veto people what childcare people want the search of support or its they consumer folded in, but that as well Vitamins rhetorical task. It's not to see the bite and, as it is is especially well suited to this kind of rhetoric or anything like that, just like that is typically how these things go in and that The president's role setting that agenda. There's recently didn't hear from those two and if they had had that opportunity, I dont think that

we have waited out that way: that's just not does not their political project, so your misery, saying that binds task as president is to paint any dissenters within his own party into a corner are such that they feel like there's so much pressure to pass his agenda than to do. Anything else would be like equally unfeasible and the american public would be outraged or or at the very least, that voting passes agenda is better than the alternative that that would be the its preferable to the status quo. So I want to put us a little bit we're talking about the politicians here who may be deciding whether or not bite into gender passes. But what about the public? Because in reading some of the commentary on last night speech, it was described as something of a paradigm shift. You know, Regan Annexes dead, big government spending is back, has really

the view of the american public changed on these things, that big spending on social programmes are popular period. So I was never really convinced that despite we hit the three decades of the public does not support spending and we should endeavour to something. It's not really going to be the public ever that's why we had to be deficits. The public's likes this used to like the sort of rhetoric small government, but then, if you try to get anything real, they was pushed back in a building. Was it a payments for the year of the government is over but TAT he knew Gingrich try to get anything, so I think I was never really ensure that the public was really small governments in sort of re when that winning when we came down like let's cut some things So in this sense, I dont think has been that hard to move the and now will be seen as the Democratic Party and the Republican, We moved away from the trunk basically proved in a lot of ways. The Republican Party did

care about spending deficits etc. in the end in the Democratic Party was already so openly that any because most Democrats were really not. The democratic party was focused on sort of physical, for electoral purposes sensitive once the republic is became big spinners it much easier than like the sort of warring. You heard violence first, forty, five, Is there a little lines that war and in Sanders could have given word for word, because they came from that sort of economic, populist left of the party which I think is moving the public left, because the public was very open to move he left in the first place. I don't think I guess I read those things being like and said: will the economics is. Did I don't think the average member the public was like? Oh, my god, he's a super liberal. I mean it's part because he's old and white, but partly because I dont think that the country ever really head. strong ideological sins of small government on economic issues near I mean

the political science, a freeze for what Paris describing as the american public on balances is operational, liberal and symbolically conservative. If you have something like the government, they'll say now: do as they like various programmes, they will say yes, that it goes back to the sixties. I mean it seems to me like something has shifted, but also that the public has long kind of had this operational liberalism leading can't you win right Reagan, winds in the eighties. No one knows why who says they no wise Lang. Here's a feeling, it could have been a problem right the small governments stuff, but it could have been a bunch of other things and bill, Clinton, winds, and so that becomes a conventional wisdom. Is these the messages that way? But it is very points Trump inviting send us and in different directions, If we take those facts, we can just say like: these are the messages that is a message is that when I think that

different about this is actually the rhetoric coming out of. In this case the president, find a dinner five as current proper philosophical role for government as providing things in helping people in having possibility and that's really fallen, really fallen off the agenda. Not just with holidays and not as a bill Clinton bit to some degree with Obama's. Well, it was ethically, the era of big government is beta. He didn't say the year of the government's back as no one to say that, but he's definitely saying the gun era the government and the government spending is here. He didn't you and I think that clear any was gently if we can sort of great disputes compared to Obama. Illiteracy was really, notably more liberal on economic issues like dramatically more liberal a certain way, and I think there is a change of measures as the public, though I think that more the party has, the Internal Party has changed, We talk about the the Eo Sea Bass. Sanders wing can't win elections, it is

I would argue, pretty clearly winning pushing party. You noticed biting his line less night, where he said I don't want to get. billionaires violent attacks them as much as possible. We are going to tax the mixture they pay their future. Later I see I don't they crying in her beer like she? He attacked the Yossi idea. you know. Yossi said you didn't, I billionaires he was. Criticising the idea had, but he was. Acknowledging? Oh, that's a great framed for me, just sort of critique while pushing for higher taxes and Obama would have on billionaires. It's like you know that in the centre. Left are playing, I think pretty. smartly, where the left's as things that are, You know that our way out there than binding did say twenty percent different dead in its model. another that they actually doing this day. Danced pretty smart knows very too, Can I say one more thing about that? One result. I think this is the, the difference with the way that bind talks with the stuff compared with the way that Clinton on Abominate ass he talked about

is having promise and like it can work and this was where Democrats had really adopted. Republican king points was this idea that whirlwind government does it? It doesn't work, and that's That's actually really subtle, but fundamental shift ramming outwards. Part of Obamacare Right was that this is giving a platform for private insurance companies too you know provide care that are better at providing than the government would be so well. question I have here- and this is probably unanswerable, but I'm curious to hear how both of you are thinking about. This is Trump or is Sanders Warren more responsible for this shift that we're seeing in american politics Is it more important that the opposition is no longer promoting small government, rhetorically, etc, etc? Or is it more important that there is a growing the Democratic Party on the left that is economically populist. I think the combining of who is the Democrats are no longer interested.

and getting a lotta republic in both the old didn't, really respect. Republican rhetoric, like Obama, did a real effort to try to get her dim Republicans on board with Obamacare and is pretending for politeness reasons and for pulling reasons, and so on, but they're not really surrounding republican subordinate some level they don't. staff tell some. today for that approach, because they don't believe the Republicans are serious, in partnership and that, since it is both the Republican Party, his is not as fiscally conservative the Democratic Party, to the left and economics, but also that there is less effort to, in the middle on really anything, so the Democratic Party and again become more left and they're not round a hidden the working party it also in those three things. I did it the pandemic would. You saw also affected and I would also say like on the economic issues. I think there is driven by the swiss cheese and the parties I think, on the weakest interracial issues. I would say that another,

many worthy the worthy Trump moved. The democratic party left enriches, but so did the black lives matter for them. So I didn't these these intersected at the point of social movements and the work more sanders candidacies were possible. because there was already a growing social, around economic inequality and those movements became. had done the same justification, something people the became than the basis for support for, particularly for Sanders candidacy and twenty. Sixteen. That kind of thing took bull by surprise. Those movements- ain't group and have shifted in focus speaking to some other. The lives Matter movement issue as well as the economic inequality movement in very so from a visit, emerged under the the trap presidencies. I think that's where they meet, but where describe their relative causal roles is

I don't buy it moves left without this sort of party building on the left, I think that more in and sinners deserve some some credit for it, but also that they were their candidacies where the product of social forces that had already organised the other part, though, is ideal that's really about diagnosing the problem about two new language, the leeway that Biden gets on policy and people have frequently attributed this him being older white man. I don't know, discount that, but I think that that also is very limiting farmers very limiting It's a lot of leeway from following the Trump administration. This is an administration that was was unpopular. Even when things were good, then twenty twenty was just serve ethically bad year in a way that was acutely experienced by a lot of people, and then he became the first president to lose real action

in thirty years, so this is our almost thirty years. So this is a. This is a moment where I think Biden just has a lot of leeway to do different policies and that's really that's a critical elements. Wedding behave differently, play different causal roles in creating this opportunity for further by the presidency to move left interests they out. I was well pie, love hearing you guys. the stuff, I wouldn't move on and talk a little bit about TIM, Scots rebuttal and also maybe a little bit more about the first one hundred days. But first today's podcast brought you by another five. Thirty, eight podcast hot takedown, each Tuesday check five. Thirty eight sports, podcast hot, take down where the hot takes up the sports world meet the numbers that proved them right or tear them down. The crew, digs into fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the analytics behind the issue they end each week.

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Regional issues on his agenda like policing, gun control. I am voting laws for the end of his speech and did not give them as much emphasis as the economy and covert when Senator terms got Republican from South Carolina gave his rebuttal. He put some of those issues front and centre and spent you know, at least as a proportion of his speech more time talking about race in America than Joe Biden did. So what was his goal or strategy in? you're framing his speech. That way, I mean, I think, the reason he's picked for that role. The reason he is part of the start of the permits in the party is as hard as a little complicated talking about, but he is part of his role is to be a black person who rejects the sort of democratic and maybe media narrative about the Republican Party in the country.

Level. So it's like I dont know if he they told him talk about race, Alot ordered the artisan internalize the calves kind of what he does in this part of his political project. You wasn't unlike his speech. So the Aral Sea at the game. Did the commissioner that I was very good last year at others. Similarly, so we ve had a bunch of racial lies discussions, particularly about big Georgia law. and so I think, the Georgia law, without with George Floyd Think there's been a lot of branding generators, the dolphins presidency. This idea that the Republican Party has a racist element, and maybe a racist core is a huge lobbying for the parity and on some level TIM scar of. Of course, he should address it. Of course he had to address it and of course there is more to have him address, and I don't know that means he's. Gonna win twenty twenty four, but I think he was a very nice Natural selection and, in some ways like duly, was ending it by agenda on the economy. His actual policies are fairly popular there to be hard to oppose.

minister, but I've ever their problems and oppose them with a really popular. This question about like look at the pulling on black lives matter. Approval dead is closer to sort of forty eight forty four that gets close to sort of where the countries that idea, which I think is natural, that TIM Scott is us, A natural opponent of the ethos of black lives matter and is a good one, and that is not right in that he's black been well. many of us. This is interesting to me. I've been really thinking about this, about kind of where, where we are in a party politics and race and policy and and kind of how how all three of those different topics have somewhat different trajectory? don't always line up What do you make of timber? speech in the context of what we saw the organ see over the summer, which was Actually the Republican Party trying to position itself as a racially liberal party right? Who is this

so you don't really here, there's one I would really for grounded criminal justice reform. They have a lot of speakers of color. and so this is one kind of logic of how how the parties could position themselves. You, kind of see the logic of this. If we combine it with the day and see where they highlighted a lotta republican speakers was like. Oh both These are trying to solve they're not extreme and meet in the middle but it's not obvious to me that that is the country that we have or why I would be strategic doesn't word that I find confusing, because I think we're at a place it We ve been at before any work at a place. Or similar to where we were in kind of mid sixties run. What is not tenable. The racial status quo is not tenable and, on the other hand, nobody likes the solutions that are on the table and those, Lotions almost immediately produce a backlash from the White Electorate that we knew really unfortunate diagnosis and possibly the result of spending too much I'm reading about this period. Lately

the desert of where I see us, let us map on to this story of what the Republican Party is trying to do at all is not obvious to me, this is weird. This is for the most have ever disagree with parents, but It is not obvious to me that it is a problem for the Republican Party, it's sort of life. of appeal with orders of color or its lack of appeal with ways for whom Rachel Liberalism is important is not over That is actually a problem. The republic, pretty does very well. What does well and the map is, is kind of drawn to give them an advantage. based on the map of the country from you know that the broader Senate Map electoral college map bright those advantages and it seems like those in send to make those types of appeals do quite well

I dont know that ten Scott is out there to appeal to moderates or to make the Republican Party Seymour moderate on this issue, my readers alike, darker and more cynical is it. This is a way of trying to shift the terrain back onto race and when Democrats have take the defensive on race that pushes Democrats into a corner in which they Have they not only talk about systemic problems, they have to figure, what the relationship is to activists who use more dramatic language that castigates the system that makes a lot of people viable energy solutions right so that it becomes will. This is your problem, Then you party that controls both chambers of Congress and the White House. What do you do About it and many of those solutions are are fraught and unpopular. They divide the Democratic Party internally right, the Democratic Party.

is unified in that it wants to move left on re somehow, but their very divided on what should be the role of of the police. What should be the role of ice? those, and so I think it's aiming as it it's a fracturing strategy and its a wedge issue strategy- and this is just a mean, I also want to say about that. Rebuttal robust. hard genre. We have seen them go south. Both parties, all there types of politicians all different attempts to master the media Scotty. A job I think he He avoided many of the critical pitfalls. His speech was very long cool and which is not always the case. With these things and and very clear and I think is unfortunate- that I have this red that that was you, it s been uses a prop to drive a wedge through the other party. But this is me my really deeply cynical read on that

And I guess I'll see him is very clearly the ambassador to sort of White Georgia. Voter moderates, who don't wanna vote for Donald throb of these labels. Races was one of those who are republican and when I see him very clearly is speaking in a person, I can imagine him being piglets vice president and being said to sort of signal and a lot of ways. The sort of people who may be voted for wrong, maybe not shrunk. That's the Republican Party is not racist here, I that's. Maybe it is as high as this is entire role to me. I don't know. Yes, maybe we really do deserve here. Listening to the two of you, it seems like the two ideas can coexist to some extent in that, if you drive a wedge through the Democratic Party

and forced the party to talk about race in ways that makes some of its voters feel uncomfortable, while also portraying the Republican Party as more moderate on these things and open to people of color and voters of color, etc. You ve created, like a feedback loop that would ultimately help the Republican Party Elect orally and hurt the Democratic Party right the decision to yeah, I think so I mean I'm more sceptical of who this front who this wrong. Clinton, voter is or Romney Biden. Voter is there are not many of them, but I think a data just as a small number, but I don't, but I am warehouse vote, I guess I guess I I probably know the more through the bulwark in the sort of college educated part of them in their probably are, did those people, representative media Mackenzie by adding that sort of that person, I think, is more open to attempts got, but maybe not maybe better. That may be a small, a phone number people not worth discussing.

That sort of my view and that most of them, though, not the bulwark people, but most of the people like that of the electorate, voted for trump anyway, I'm sure I mean the overwhelming majority did in fact the aggregate yeah I mean, I think it's complicated as we did see during the two thousand sixteen election in two thousand and thirteen May terms that there were these places in suburban Atlanta, suburban Dallas, Fort Worth Houston Orange County, just make really dramatic ships. Parts of Utah make really dramatic ships that we at five thirty eight crunch the numbers to figure out where Democrats picked up more ground in two thousand eighteen was it in you know, Obama, trunk districts, Randy Clinton, Slash Romney Third party districts, and it was that latter district, the district that was had higher levels of education was in,

Bourbon areas around large metro areas, and it seems like for Democrats, you know, maintain a majority in the house so on those districts are quite important yet ass. My visit to the Sudan read all the districts, but I lost my visiting as there is a small number of Romany Biden voters in this, and if I was a problem and I would use TIM scatter some, I like that to build does my, but I can name then issue saying: do I guess I to connect to bite and on race? Briefly, I didn't hear bite and speeches avoiding raised. I guess I know one of my cousin, my colleagues on the life blood did. I did. I like it, seemed very consistent. What he's been doing, which is a he leave What sort of economic populism is needed? Not only talk about the other gave a speech after the George drifted, a showman trial. I mean it's not like. He has he's talking to racial equality. Le Biden has talked about

race in in this speech to weigh more than Barack Obama do. So I'm not sure that I would say that in the context of helmet, maybe media public movement discourse. is about Rachel issues. Yes, bided, maybe is not talking about raises as much as the sort of median maybe the median Democrat with a twitter account. I think, the median Democrat Don't you like adequately this meeting he's ignoring black My guess is James. Clever was like great. You gave us be but economic issues. There was full of left wing stuff. There would probably this work. We helped black people talk about voting rights which we cannot pass anyway. You talk, I've done rights which would give which done good robbing it we can pass anyway, you hit George Floyd. Specifically, you gave a speech about this. Two weeks ago, you picked Blackwood prejudge ships, you pick cobble heresy standing there. I can't

Imagine a kleiber net. This sort of bite and real bases like Kleiber, earns you know age black. Those be ilium leaders, and I d like you to do is always in very good hitting the marks to that group, and I think that speech with his last night speech seemed perfectly piss, for that I had a very similar reed, which was Zack Biden has spoken a lot about raising systemic racism in away. There really defies a of patterns in in the presidency that we ve seen so far I think this is also currently use yonner issue. I think that there were people who the expected like, maybe by whom we use his state of the union to speak. In a more systemic way about big principle, idea: The way president just sometimes use prime time rest and I'm just going to sing a state of the union as a whole situation frame ridiculous. The about calling it nodded.

The union. But, as you know, there is a policy laundry list and in general doesn't go into a kind of deep systemic, shoes or I kind of broader explanation, of the principles of the administration or diagnosis of the problems of the country. It sort of like agenda item agenda. I agenda item and biting quota broken with that form, but he didn't. And that makes sense to me. I think in some ways, thinking a lie. I wrote this peace when Trump was president about tramping a nineteenth century president. I keep thinking bite and is a twentieth century. President and I think one twentieth century playbook items he's taken is building on the success of the whip I wish you success or build thyself right. So, like you pursue the things you can pursue, you look like you and read the room, you look like you know what you're doing the present relegates way more credit and he deserves it. When things like this go legislative arena, and then you build up the cat

and also that later in the administration you can take on these systemic issues that are very twentieth three model is actually very is very after our model in terms of, policy, immediacy and then moving out to the more structural changes that you might make as you build political capital a more recent model in a more twenty first century models to assume the political capital. Four hundred days, you can do everything and then is just gonna, be playing that. pensive as the mid term approaches so Actually, I'm actually make sense to me that the bite it might give this a try. Why not? It may not work. It may not result in these structural changes, but trying to to deal with them in February during a pandemic, did making sense either. So I think that's does a bunch of what we saw. So I do not really see the speeches him. ignoring race and his Paris, I think it's important to think about the difference between

bill, I'm leader, Social Movement leaders, who play a very specific role in pushing against the status quo and right. in file african american voters who have This is another, have long standing feature who have lake most voters in the electorate been primarily concerned economy and their economic opportunities, and so it makes sense also to emphasise those priorities The data shows that black people do care. lot about police. Just as the idea that the police tree blackmail Lee, but we ve seen as all democrats care about that now so talking about raises, a subset issue and is: are we to get in Preparations in white Democrats knows more than in black. There are issues with its differences, but in general, by the Democratic Party, is moved to a place where racial issues are more prominent in, but that's a shared view among all

parties. It was not like, like he gave a sort of, he did. The whole immigrants is immigrants. He did climate change, immigration, gun policy. So the ratio is used in a list and if you think that There was a base check off in a certain way, but they tells you the bases, like climate people and guns are sort of white left. You know racial issues are black is will immigration is not altogether it was? He knows what he's doing. but I think if we did, that check was is no longer just checking reads: grew the whole vision agrees and all those things essentially interesting- I wanna before we wrap up here reflect a bet on buttons. First, one hundred days, which we done a lot of here, but maybe specifically and Julia. I think you triggered one of our buzzwords when you mentioned after. I think, obviously, that's kind of the comparisons that Biden with white people to make

I am curious to hear whether you all think that's fair, but during his first one hundred days kind of what did we learn about him as a president kind of set us up nicely. What else can we learn? Besides that he wants to be after I mean everyone in some way it lives in the shadow of a hefty are in there few of them get there, and I think very few of them would actually want to in this sense it s. The irish presidency was actually very was very tumultuous and the country was in shambles in a lot of ways multiple intersecting crises making me. bite and a more logical comparison to empty are god, but I mean to set that up I don't mean to do. The sort of you know any sort of hagiography about fighting versus empty are either of them, but when I do where do you want to Emphasize- there was a sort of progression for immediate issue: structural issues, editing dinosaurs, building on I think we learned about bite in

is our fizzling learn where the presidency, which is that experience matters, and I really struck by how uneventful this administration has been and is not just that the comparison points trump as a very dramatic one that also Obama and also Bill Clinton and United? Remember going through, like a seemingly endless attorney general's fur, went in and the sort of seeming you know the appeal when process in the way how staffing process and all this was so dramatic. For some of these less experienced, president's lake. You know that they were kind of flux by challenges and also by the reality of what Congress was Biden. If he's not surprise me that is hidden. It very well His cabinet has clearly been been very well that it and well received and confirmed these are things we maybe don't always think about, but do illustrate the way in which experience matters and that that is a country

invited and not just trumpet, virtually every president. This come before him for forty years, so my big three tankers in the present day dispersive I thought it was such an important moment when the press conference happened. Another reporters asked the question about covered. It was like, oh, you know, Biden scope it. It was the subtle like you, no implication there. They could not come up with gas. Your questions are antiquated really because he com the country down. I'm not saying that he creed vaccine process started before him. The Muslims already going that's it? I don't think it's easy to imagine. This would not have got as well with Donald Trump in jars, and I think Biden took over and this really important issue that this is by far the most one. Important things happen. not only in this one hundred days, I would argue in media presidencies under days to have

so many people get vaccines and whether by it in a minute, should get a lot of credit. Some credit. This happened while he was present and he Enron, cleaning staff were very focused on the first few months was like Covin Covert, Goeben persecutors Cobain. That was important like bite and taste governing seriously when shouldn't make some mistakes doing it. The borders that has not been handled as well, but Biden takes governing seriously awaited shrunk never did, and I would argue that in some ways this step is thinking about these governing things. More than Obama's did like a dog. The website for Obama was a terrible roll out and it seems to me the bite and staff is really thought. We have to be good at implementation. If we're going to say we want to have more government about death. The most important thing is that it is. The second thing is important is that when he was talking to the campaign about Bi partisanship and the Bin, the fever

breaking I was like he was vice president. Had he missed the go bombing years I was covering. What are you talking about? Is he and say ok emitted and must become we're here basically lie, you know. Sometimes I e was not dumb. He was basically lying and of their deports. They play bi partisanship, but it's all for play, and I was right. I thought maybe I misunderstood into the country, but I doubt they were. There was armourplate every now and then in the third part, as they are governing. You know little decidedly liberal way, and not just we mention raised when he talks about race a lot we mission, the economy which are go away if you ask me about it Ganis then I would have said oh yeah by it as part of the block he's a foreign policy person here, for some reason why we can't give you gotta get out of Ghana, then he'll keeps small number there. It will seem radical of he withdraws all the troops. He did

like on IO. That was a bold move. It wasn't like a little more than me troops during the person. That was a bold move in on foreign policy even and part of, what's happening, EVA terms of immigration is he's trying to have a less harsh. immigration policy not only from Trump but really from Clinton. Early stage Obama's too, and that's why you're, seeing like their trust to be a sort of more forgiving at the borders of foreign policy issue of swords ends? I think even the foreign policy left his kind of get more traction and

spit didn't in general by news. We more live on a lot of dimensions than I expected, so you ve made out a lot of ways in which Biden has been clearly to the left of a lot of his predecessors. If I recall correctly, really the only time you try to break with party orthodoxy in a high profile way was on refugee camps and originally proposing that we stick with the refugee camps that were proposed by Trump for twenty twenty one. There was a backlash within the party and it seems like his administration is now reconsidering and well announced new numbers later. Is it the case that, like he's kind of in a corner like he, can't actually break with party orthodoxy, because there will be such a big backlash or will people stick with? even if he does kind of cross party wine sometimes mean it simply. The only time he's really actually tried across party lines. He immediately got a lotta pushed back. I think immigration really illustrates polar,

asian and away and impact of the current presidency in the every issue is now ceiling. It that's an exaggeration, but I think it is not far off. Immigration is typically not the top line national issue it played a cute roll in the twenty sixteen presidential campaign and away those very unique and in modern history and its typically I did both parties internally, and so it has been something anybody really months. Two months to champion, Bush took on fairly weight in his in his presidency and wasn't successful, and I think what what you're seeing with bite in is a couple things. One is that you can't now you can't- ass. These immigration activists and they became strong during that the trunk presidency of these issues and their pet perspective? Those issues became very salient. Let the democratic electorate the idea that human rights should drive Armagh foreign policy became a guiding principle that The principle is actually really different from holiday.

We have talked about this issue in there, for example, their platform in the past usually framed immigration, as we have to secure the border. But all the immigrants make the country better and they approve the improve the economy and sort of four grounding of human rights as a little bit distinct and look at new, and I think that puts bite a really challenging position because it is not just about it challenging party orthodoxy- that's not how I would put it is the bite is in a position where he may need to try lay out what is what is the logic of democratic, policy on immigration and during the trumpet This was easy, it's not trump and bring the Obama and Clinton years. They were able to sort keep it lower. Salience How can we will do that? So they're gonna need to have an eye about one of the guiding principles that guide our immigration policy that skirts both the sword. Been borders. Accusations and also the challenge

is about human rights, and that that you know kind of acknowledges, the priorities of this who are rooted in in these human rights concerns, and that is not an easy task to come up with a coherent philosophy of where the parties on immigration that responds to wear the Republican Party has has taken its stance. So I think this is he's really complicated issue, but I but it does also generalise out. Dear broader question can bite in can bite and cross party orthodoxy or, more importantly, party activists and aiming its is much harder to do so when nearly every issue has a sort of hotlines salience and the electorate has already sorted on it. I think that by is not doing everything the lift wants in that, I would say, he's not kind defence spending he's not fighting. Filibuster like he's not like the left, wants a forthright final involve after he's kind of dancing they want,

Does he know sort of cardio mansion every dance I get it done already and I think he's being much more careful Isaac Newton had been left. What is he doing anything? The Republicans one I think you're? likely. My prediction is on this criminal justice. George Floyd ACT. I do think he may end up dropping some parts of the kind of more left on seizure for people want to get. The Republicans to vote for think there might be dead issue where the real less demands on police you're never gonna happens on that kind of deal. I can imagine as a world where he redesign Republicans drop some things and so on. So I dont think I e the question of like. Does he do everything? The left wants is no does he crossed Europe did not see bite and is party orthodoxies. I dislike heart Minnesota, like its Billina, get internet images. He joined the Republicans out some things. I think he will I think you did, I think it'll be on issues that we can't think that go beyond learning. There are some low, salient issues:

the world like here they give any like up here, but I think there will be issues where there is probably I guess there was a hate crimes building and nothing hate crimes are loath aliens, but there was a hate crimes, legislation, anti Asian Hake Revolution that was passed, so I think there's bi partisanship as possible. I dont see him doing any Bill Clinton style bills where half the democratic cockers votes against it. No, I don't think that's the question that the party is stronger. and I dont thing try insulating can work because there's no centre of the electorate to, I don't think the electorate is, has a lot Sensuous swing. Voters like did you can triangulate with into the way

Bill Clinton? I think Biden needs to have the democratic base with him in twenty twenty two's. I think there's a lot of incentive not to annoy the yeah. That was gonna, be my final question. Wrapping up, as you know, of course, we're five. Thirty, eight we gotta talk about approval ratings and, as we record this pact has Biden, has fifty four percent of prove forty two percent disapprove. That is well above tromp. That's almost the reverse of our trump was, but also a relative to historical presidents, who are living through very different political times, with lower levels of polarization etc, and do we have five thirty, eight and other ways of the media have this kind of debate of? Why is this? Is it just not possible for president to have a true honeymoon period anymore, where they're getting two thirds support from the country, and I was gonna aspect? Is there a scenario in

that could happen and is just like fully crossing the Democrats, and you know, throwing the Republicans of bone on something, a situation that could actually like gain him approval, amongst Republicans, while not losing much amongst democrats. You know we're living here. done a great now, so it's maybe a little bit hard to think of some. Rally round the flag, big national event. That could shake things up, but maybe is this just what we should expect from the belgian presidency, or is there any reason to think that this? This kind of where we are in terms of presidential approval could change The prevailing wisdom, Local science right now is that people are varied actually cast out even on these rallying effects that that was the they came to mind. Is it it wouldn't be something bite and would do at all would be shifting the political environment where there's a rallying effect, because something terrible happen, that seems to be the We should be how these things happen mean Ababa and trumps. Ratings were just remarkably flat

and when they did change it was to decline. So that's, you know that I think that sort of the situation- and you I mean the Question- ok, so the Republicans have a binds proposing four trillion dollars in this infrastructure bill overall Republicans have, I think, a six hundred billion rules if bite I endorse their tomorrow. What do you think would happen? I think you would three hundred billion and in the end, and then there will be a rush for the report. Is to find something wrong with the six hundred billion and I'm not. Oh beside lead, but I must say that I think there's a potential that maybe it signed with sign me colonel in the republic of go to even and so on. Do I think that, takes Biden or like two things like even takes bite and beyond. Maybe just sixty, when I think there's a core. Thirty, that's going nowhere near him, but I think that's the scenario of dimensions. Do we

would the Republicans allow on a high any issue that have high salience wounded? looking sign honorary by a bipartisan bill, I'm sceptical but weaken dispute forget by the left for a second, Republicans. Allow that to happen. I'm skeptical. Let's say it does No, if you'd have to bigger by you have to think is immediately Ten points, this we're doing. If I get three points? I pick up all the left. I don't know if it's worth it or not and in some ways My apple raining goes down among Democrats as it goes up among Republicans, so this the question is, I don't health sordid. We are- and I love this year test of this I think I'm It is obvious that no vex, you think I don't genuinely no job in the parties- have in someone's been too sorted to relieve and try it but a good example. The me, sir, I dont think people trunk signed a criminal justice reform bill. I'd taken twenty nineteen. I,

members talking to people about this, and they didn't know eating this too, and so one problem is when an issue becomes by partisan. I almost worry that the media doesn't cover it does much, because it's not a conflict. and therefore I wonder if there's much coverage of it, infrastructure is not at like jewels, What was the last high salience by partisan bill? There was, I guess, these Kogi bills repairs, but there was an divided govern who was the last unified government, hi salience by partisan bill. That is That is a tricky question I feel, like. I noticed Medicare Party that you I'd government highs, that seems right, in two thousand and six writers overtook him up yet yeah really got six, I was not aware of But I'm just getting to the point is like this:

The idea that in a unified government, when the parties hazards not work either party, I must have a hard time. Ok, so. did this, that, if such a scenario makes sense, if I just don't know how that would work and if they did Thus we need, we don't have a good hypothetical scales. What is a good one? I dont know if the President when tried or the parties with we need. We need- Spermatozoa what I just think about this because seemed almost like biting, was trying with the refugee camp to say. Ok, you care a lot about this Republicans I'll. Just dick with what your plan was. But, as you know, the backlash from Democrats was so swift and so strong that it didn't seem possible. And I'm wondering, if that's just simply the case now, if there's any issues they Biden could just. kind of agree with Republican. That's not a good example of this is the executor acts or what

what you're describing is if Biden does refugees, the Republicans would read a demagogue on the border. Less would be a bipartisan deal right, maybe something like that, So do I did it ever give some very bipartisan? Why didn't you just give away something? You just cut the refugee? Yes, we want is not a deal, that's like, so I guess I mean not so much like what does bi partisanship like in Congress. More then, how does the public respond more broadly like how to republican voters respond when buying does something that they want that democratic, don't necessarily one and like is there a scenario in which I would ever happen? Do voters, Willie Knoweth refugee I mean is that it gives a republican voters. Refugee ironic, that that was a hard with Russia that we have. The precondition is a little bit more. I think it Biden Head kept their refugee camps. in the limited number of waned. Nobody would have noticed two weeks lighten their that issued, maybe too low. I want to do this test

I can't we need issued is a little bit harder to get them to write. The proof is right here in this conversation, almost that things are so sorted that it is really difficult to think of a plausible scenario in which this could happen. In a way that, like Clinton did it. I think we had a Russia sanctions billion acid. Twenty seventeen. You know right. The trunk complained about the like there was by partner, but its a bit We feel we don't. I think part of it is that we forget issues that are bipartisan terrorism, media problem, no, that's there! I think that there is actually a fair amount of by persons. still happens, but it's just very it's very low salience. I see what you're getting at where the problem guys. The minute we focus on something the whole conversation falls upon me vision to shut out. Now, I'm kidding something to that anyway. This was good. So thank you Julia.

and parent appreciate thanks here. Thank you compare it. You are leaving us just yet. You also be here on Monday. So look far too talking to you, then. Until then mining is given droop China, China is in the virtual control room. You can get in touch my email in us at pipe constant, five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also persuaded us with any questions or comments. If you're a friend of the show, Give us a rating or review and the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us things from listening animals her.