Now, if vice sorry vice president, as I was, do it over again hollow and welcome to the five thirty politics contrast, I'm Gale undertook presumptive democratic nominee. Joe Biden could name has running may as early as the end of this week, according to the timeline that he previously laid out now, if vice presidential picks, have direct electoral consequences, there usually pretty limited but VP picks, and how the media coverage then can shape views of a presidential ticket overall. So today we're going to discuss how some of violence potential choices could influence the way Americans view his campaign both positively and negatively, were also to take a look at why President Trump is sending federal agents

into american cities and how it relates to his re election message and here with me to do that. Our editor in chief mate silver he ate Galen, so how's the house. The model common The model is about ninety eight point: five percent done. I wanna be cleaner. Readers can be a lad between when kind of I finish the code and we testing debug things. Finish the visuals Asians, but you know every some my end, so what you predict for when the model will be out there is there for asked, there's a high cabinets interval but we're getting there get in there, I don't know this audience abruptly, probably secure this. I dont think the world is like clamouring in a year like this, for us to be extra early to put probability, something they never pulling averaged up for a month or two now but soon you will have those probabilities to argue about. You will have all the medic crap about twenty. Sixteen.

In our lot to look forward to, and of course also here with Us- is in your politics- rider clam alone, heckler hygiene and senior politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry. Let's talk about the federal agents in Portland and potentially other cities. The Trump administrations use of those federal agents in American Citys has become a flashpoint. What appear to be customs and border protection agents have been patrolling the federal poorhouse in Portland for weeks spurring further protests against their presence. President from also said this past week that he plans to send federal agents to quell violent crime in Chicago and Albuquerque New Mexico. You also threatened to send agents into other democratically controlled cities, and this comes at a time when the president is also ramping up. His re election campaign messaging around the threat of violent crime show

We know present from stated goal here, which is to combat violent crime in american cities. Neat. Do you think we should take him at his word, given the broader political context here that he wants combat violent crime? Yes, I don't think trumpeted each van about crime. Nor am I I should say now, I mean this is kind of catnip fur for Trump pursue a law order strategy. You know? We should keep mind, though, that Americans do not like how we handle the protests in general, in particular The handling of protest in D C in the Bible moment seem to be maybe two things tat. There are locked points in his approval person to be a real down dick in his numbers. I mean. Maybe you could argue that, like the protests errors in Portland hours, slightly less sympathetic, because they're kind of the connection

between what their purchasing over a little bit more ambiguous. But I don't know I mean, like trump- is kind of flailing around they were, The current of ours is not going well the economy, is in bad shape. People think that having he says on race. Relations tends to make things worse right. And so maybe, if in Portland, their connection too, Lessons in a little bit less obvious, but no, I don't think so anything like apart from in a fairly cynical and perhaps unsuccessful political strategy. I work here, I got Parian Clare. Do you agree with the assessment? Is it fair to call the feds actions in Portland and now Chicago and potentially other cities? part of a political campaign yeah, I think so. Emulating Trump has been pretty explicit in the way that he's talked about the deploy manner, potential deployment of these federal troop seas,

Specifically sad. Look at these democratically run cities that are, you know, running a mock. It seems to be part of this appeal to suburban knights, who, I think, what we might talk about later. I think Trump might fundamentally misunderstand the the political leanings of Suburban America right now, but he does talk about deploying this federal force in democratic cities. I should also say that the notion that a federal force should be deployed to combat crime in cities, violent crime and There is obviously an uptake and violent crime in cities across the country over the past couple of past few weeks, but the notion that a I think, law affair. I heard the Lothar podcast someone call it a lawful but awful use of federal force. I mean you know, with the consent of the governor of Caliphs,

during the ninety two riots and allay there was, you know National Guard brought in, but the fact that the federal government, without the consent and, in fact against the expressed wishes of state and local officials is bringing in this odd assortment of federal agencies. I mean, I think, the nature of like homeland security is kind of a whole. That agency is kind of a whole separate, interesting discussion, but it's it's quite unprecedented. I think for it to be a kind of against the Express wishes local and state officials, I'm not sure how electoral this is, if only because I think he might have done this in two dozen nineteen or in two thousand and seventeen at them. Protests, we think Trump does not like protest. He does not like protest about doesn't like this sort of sense of disorder? He has some. Rotarian instincts, I would say, is the idea of sending a police force is not in a clear way

he's from finances how he sees the world with a third way. So, as it is think The ages staff came to with this idea is the kind of thing he's likely to life in approve attacking liberal cities, he'd, I'm sure doesn't like Portland or Baltimore or Chicago for reasons it out did you do with like electoral politics as a guest visitors. Things and he would have liked this arose. He doesn't like protests and here we are well. I also think that the fact that an election year and he's sort of fallen down on pandemic response probably does have a lot to do with the fact that he is making a big deal about applying this force, making his political adds about public safety right, you have the empty nine one. One control centre in these trump adds, so I do think it there's a there's. A big element of he's decided that this is like the note. The big note that he can strike during this

I'm when he has not done very well on a lot of the sort of bureaucratic response to the pandemic. Yeah, I didn't mean to imply those who some strategy that makes trump uncomfortable pretty reason? Right, I mean like look like a lot of people, the trunk ten. The view where he has impulses to do anyway, for whatever reasons as being electronically, then pages and committed himself that there's no trade off between my personal, I am using desires and what's going to help me when reelection right, so I don't I can crop, they can draw a clear distinction. There, Ya Clare. You just mentioned the ads that trumps campaign has released over the past several weeks. That kind of get at this.

Reelection message of law and order and the threat of violent crime. Let's listen to one. So we can talk about that further. In the context of the overall campaign syrup reached the nine one, one police emergency line due to the funding of the police department. We're sorry, but no one is here to take your call. If you're calling to report a rape, please press one to report a murder pressed to to report a home invasion. Press three for all other crimes, believe your name in number and sullen will get back to you. Our estimated way. Time is currently five days, goodbye, Donald Trump, and I approve this message and then what flashes across the screen there the end is, you won't be safe in Joe Biden, America I mean it seems,

pretty overt here right, that this is all part of a single message, a single campaign Perry I do see. Otherwise, here yeah, I would say de funding. The police is unpopular and a good thing to run say: sending troops to Portland Arson, indeed, as the Portland upholding- I guess it is not gonna Pull- will and this whole idea of Joe Biden Plan to India. You integrate the suburbs is bad because gonna make the suburbs bad. I think begin I, u framed, it might be popular, probably won't be public nature The suburbs now is not always people and always peoples, not responding message. Well, so I think the ads about deep the police are certainly electoral. I would maybe isolate the sending the polluter police to cities is different. Any part of it is like,

whether something is electoral up you know everything he does. I'm sure has some electoral context. I just think that, deep on the police thing particular responses, particular mode, but I think you'll hear him. Mentioning debates and mission like I'm not again if we have to be I'm sure, Donald Trump will it will of mention deepening These are the challenges by none the issue about policeman. I dont think in the debates. Trump will be. Like you know, talk, you know what happened in Portland, that much maybe I'm wrong was a wheat what's Perry. What's the distinction you're making here you're saying it's: it's not electoral Lee motivated just something that he would do anyway, you so, but I think that he would soon Jesus forces to Portland and twenty nineteen or any other times that it gets. What he believes is the protest or can a bad, and so my view is sometimes there's something weird. Kind of her legs is covered for a few days. His staff tells me you're terms a quarter

Obviously it is part of our strategy. Did you acts and sometimes it feels like there's a richer in his instincts in it, as opposed to what is actually going on yeah, but even if their retrofitting, it still is like. I guess it's there, maybe not elect good electoral strategy, but it is their strategy. I mean that unless there is no strategy, electronically is a strategy for what they're doing right now. I must confess that I mean it's kind of like they seem to be operating, I'm like an a late sixties, early seventies, understanding of who makes up the suburbs. So, like that's weird, maybe just getting terror. All information- I don't know- but it's I mean to me- it's like maybe there's a fine distinction, but does it particularly matter in an election year? I mean they're, not until we see proof like this, kind of is what they believe. Thinking for around behaving in authoritarian ways, I agree with your item, but at the present is revealing and authoritarian ways he was the win. The elections are really

issues that still have some differences, because I assume loosened twenty twenty one is where also it's like worth. Thinking is also, to be honest, like news meat, coverage of electoral authorities, his frame them differently than coverage of just things that are going on, I think, is important. You'd be doing. Is anyway, I'm not sure by you know it's something. Having an election year is electoral. I'm not gonna, pretend that is not relevant, but I don't think it's like the dominant Risa. What's happening, I would say, is not pilots political strategy right. I think a lot of people just saw this Maybe it's falling into the trap that you describe Harry as similar to the caravan surrounding the mid terms and sending troops to the southern border to kind of draw attention to what President tromp sees as potentially winning message, which is, in that case immigration, which did help him in two thousand sixteen, and in this case a law and order which keep. I guess,

happens. A student of history sees as having helped Nixon or radiant, or something like that. They also properly both in the house by nine points, which is a good job. Number right eye it's another debate, I it's not as clear to me as the conventional wisdom. I hold how much immigration help trump in twenty sixteen rule out a heartache as opposed to issues with wouldn't ranging from sexism to her emails. Whatever else right out primary. Would you give em that immigration helped him when the primary sure yeah, but like I've been trying to be created at me, like I'm, not quite sure what the right analogy is here right, but people come up with. I guess I'm just gonna carry people come up with rationalizations very effectively. Humans are very. At anyway to rationalize their impulsive. You haven't I

I guess I don't understand the distinction that were of the it's like its electoral strategy, its election strategy, its authoritarianism. Why don't you join with like why we need the distinction drawn around each of the separate areas? I guess that's my confusion is like, a person's election strategy might be authoritarian and they might, but anyway, but they're doing it. Therefore, it is their strategy. It seem sort of sir, I guess. Maybe I want to kind of risks. I think the thing I said at first response to get away. I said it was the goal. Why can't I think about it? Hearing you guys that may be the wrong framing. You know, it may be terrible. Maybe authoritarian right advocate cynical, since it only doing this, because I want to win reelection right, how much is being open to win reelection rioting, trumpet we too have police crackdown on liberal mixed race protesters under any circumstance, that's a good way. To put it. The fact is, I might say, even if the polls show. This is not a particularly useful to active, I still think trot. Might he doing so

it gives you a guest in it, a bad you, but I sort of like if someone do something they read the Poles, it's not covered up. He doing here, I'm not gonna call them, what are those fears? Yemeni call it like? What did you use, but that's what it is like it's a bad political strategy, just as bad as mean it's like not extra, not strategy,

well, ok, I mean I think somewhere somewhere in here. There's a somewhat do honest view of like what exactly Trump is doing, how it relates to his views of what we'll get him reelected verses, his general tendencies. One question I have in all of this as you're saying that it's probably not popular now is there any sense that Trump through the boy puppet of the presidency and by putting a lot of focus on this, can raise the important level of violent crime and desire for law and order amongst the general public in order to make it a more important election issue, just a site, some numbers gear. You know in a pew pull from July. Forty one percent of Americans said violent crime is a big problem in America. That's compared with fifty eight percent who say that the corona virus outbreak is and sixty three percent who say that ethics in government is, and then a Gallup poll show that three person

Americans said crime is the most important issue facing the country. Do think Trump is making a big here to try to up those numbers. I think these the cushions is the question we have is like. Is this the best way to do that? Like you can imagine a strategy which you talk about Chicago and violence? Dzhokhar go non, stop in life, in which he did to some extent in sixteen and sort of talk about that and I'm way, maybe them you and amplify like. I think the media was is perfectly willing to Levite claims of high crime. Urban areas. The media are doing that for a long time. I beg you, smarter than talk about their as opposed to. Sending in federal forces? two are up from unnamed agencies. Cuz they're going to get the critique that you're like violating violating norms, and so I think, if Trump won to do that, there's actually think elevating crime is an issue is probably a pretty smart. If you can do that, I don't think we're watching

demonstration of it. Yet it is a question of like if he were in more effective, authoritarian did understand the politics behind right I mean what look, I think. Obviously it's not a given that by moving the election right, water, I'm scenarios by which Trump wins a some combination of the corona virus numbers getting better by all maybe despite Trump frankly and views of other issues. Kind of somehow spinning to a different place But maybe there are at some point somewhere esters, everywhere column protesters right, so people kind of adjacent protest. The to at violently in that kind of this unbalanced word: law enforcement or no private. Since there some time- and you can imagine that, like these are unpredictable kind of powder kegs- doesn't and then you can imagine things spitting out, allow different ways right, but in general people don't trust. On these issues at all, so he's

kind of playing its work We are seriously as a kind of strategy, he's playing kind of a strategy on average- might make matters worse for him, but maybe experts kind of a hail Mary works in and Nothing changes in public views about these protests, waste. In theory, a bit might also different using private this protest. They might stay publicly and again, I think, people are supportive of the closed matter movement. Nothing kind of the more firmly Action is between the protests and this matter than I think actually is harmful for trump right in the more tenuous recognition gets ten people, maybe it s a little bit, but it if it is tragic, Sprague, desperate strategy. You can argue that light. He's in a desperate position down eight or nine points in the polls, but that you now You bet your bridges. Could you screwed everything else

Then you don't have much to lose. I guess yeah agent, maybe just saying here, because we tracked it earlier on in the process, but haven't talked about its much lately, trumps at negative twenty when it comes to his approval rating for handling the corona virus, and it just been taking down steadily over these past months and so perhaps changing the subject making

different appeal is, as you mentioned, the hail Mary Strategy Clear you mentioned earlier on that trump, maybe trying to make an appeal to the suburbs and that he may not entirely understand the politics of the suburbs. Can you flash out a little bit more for us? You know how is Trump doing in the suburbs and why don't you think this is? Maybe the best strategy will he's not doing particularly well right now in the suburbs- and you know I think chump potentially has the zeal in his mind, of as of the suburbs, as this still very conservative white bastion. Now a lot of american suburbs are very

it's actually a very common for Americans to live and mix race neighborhoods. All of that is true, but let's also true about the suburbs is that they have crept more towards the democratic side of things over the past few elections, White College, Educated Americans, which I think this is a pretty often easy shorthand for the kind of people who live in suburbs, are creeping more and more democratically name. We ve gone over the numbers. You know almost every week, I'm his pod cast about how most of the majority of Americans view Trump as bad,

race relations right. So I think people do also who is no longer a kind of like a wider, no fees really being kind of its he's, not trampling on race issues, letting people see him as inflaming a pretty problematic racial issue in the country, which I think a lot of people care about, and I don't think that's something that place particularly well in the suburbs. You know, if it were, I think he named Perry were saying before you could see someone having a smarter strategy to play up for you no worries about crime, and maybe that would be a more sober policy conversation about. It would be catastrophic to define the police and here's. Why, rather than like sending troops trumps, also doing some interesting stuff around here

what's to roll back some housing laws, which is, I am a little surprised by that. Honestly, it seems like a little bit of out of left field, but I guess kind of plays into you know racial tensions and of in America, but I think fundamentally, Trump is kind of misunderstanding, the political leanings of the suburbs, which are more diverse. I think that he thinks or that he speaking to and are also just more liberal than they once were so there's a regulation that was passed in the later years. The Obama administration that was intended to basically for some suburbs to racially intergroup here for people of differences of lowering of people to move into suburb, so the troubled region last he makes his reverse their policy. There was no, there was a housing department, policies are not a law and they ve been advertising. Summoned trumps, been talking

I want to save the suburbs and I think about the porters policies. A Joe Biden supports this policy, so if you think of tromp is trying to appeal, you, let's policy, white people, because this is the suburbs- include some minorities, but I don't think he's trying to appeal to those people. I do think that stuff Some of you, you can portray the intervention ideas being overly aggressive. Could that work? I think I could work for some politicians. I think probably not Donald Trump, because some people think he's races. I think the crime issue overall, we're talking about like deepening the police there still is a good issue for him. If he can get Biden they're trying to goad bided into suggesting he would at some police funding somewhere by

being a non idiot and having read the pole is not going for that so far, but that are trying to go bite into a crying discussion. Words were troposphere the police and bite and isn't one thing needs to the jumped out amused summing up port limit, I think, is useful. To think about is Trump needs to do couple issues from race and the one thing about Portland users and all is obviously all white city with protesters wondering is, does make this electoral in political? Is that you're gonna pick a city to pick on? I think Trump and his team did pick the right one, because Portland is a sea of white protesters. They made a mistake in once is Y, all those mom showed up to join the protests. Again, I think their hearts trot because once is like- Others and people who looked like the swing. Voter white mothers. Anything against white mothers is bad, but the protesters Those mainly like younger people, younger Men might have been a good scenario, but I think for the Portland Identities complicated. For that reason, yet the red lining stuff or the tree

like rollback, anti redline rules by Trump is interesting, because I think lots of politicians and lots of politics and liberal cities kind of revolve around these, like NIMBY Ism instincts right than that in my yard kind of instincts? Where is you know? People want to live neighbourhood it to the good public school, not the bad one. There's lots of fights around how's it right when and how it interacts with public services. This happens in California, politics, right, renters, verses owners and in cities and you can see how this does have some appeal. Parents who are worried about you know bussing happening. I grew up in a town that had bussing, and that is what it was. A liberal town and there were really big divides over, is bad for our schools, as is bad for

children you can see the way is that that stuff plays into people's fears. I do think there racial fear fears, but it is at an Parrys right where everyone just kind of it with a different politician, you might be able to kind of have more respectable quota, quote conversation around it, but with trumpet just Red STAR, up as like, because he kind of says too I'm not gonna. Let the outsiders ruin the suburbs. I mean it's there's not much, there's not much reading between the lines to be done. I mean he treated at quote: suburban housewives of America and then said, quote provide and will destroy your neighborhood and your american dream. I will preserve it and make it even better. I'm all ears, on what my american studies thesis in that thing, like the american dream like what they want, is that urban housewives of America, which, like when you think about the supper, oftentimes. You think of the Euro, Draper homes where two parents work

is there a mean yeah? It is like an maybe a potential politico did pretty one piece: titled Donald Trump's, suburban horror, show where it described Trump down. You know between nine and eleven points in the suburbs he won the suburbs. In twenty six, in by four points. They point out that the suburbs are now a third non white and then two thirds why it's more diverse there aren't this Rachel attitudes necessarily as there were in the Sixtys and Seventys. So this appeal is pretty bluntly: getting at some of those dynamics trying to turn his fortunes around in the suburbs need. Is it fair to say that the twenty twenty election kind of hinges on how the supper gal I mean look to the extent that rural areas generator looking in urban areas during about democratic than its immediate. That's the areas that tend to be the swing parts of different states. Sure we can. The whole package deficit in how you define the suburbs versus small towns versus relation to distance from,

from the big city, while always in the house and how I think Europe really cares and all about Europeans do down highlights once the win himself right, sir, for the house, then the suburbs, big part of my Democrats made made their gains in two thousand and eighteen because alive discs that were drawn to be you know: red leaning, conservative suburbs have now turned purple or even blue. In some cases you know problem in some of these kind of southern states, and so forth are right. Well, we will of course, keep tabs on whether this changes anything in the suburbs. Let's move on and discuss some of the pros and cons of Joe Biden potential vice presidential pecks, but first today's podcast is brought you by simply safe here's. The thing about homesick, carroty companies, most trap. You with high prices, tricky contracts and lousy customer support so well. There are a lot of options out there, there's only one, no brainer, simply safe, civilised

got everything you need to protect your home with none of the drawbacks of traditional home security. It comes an array of centres and cameras to blanket every room window, indoor tailored specifically for your home, if monitoring, keeps watch day and night ready to send police fire or medical professionals, if there is an emergency, you can setting up yourself in under an hour just peel and stick the sensors exactly where you need them. No technician required and there's no contract, no was she sales guys, no hidden fees, no fine print. All this starts at just

Fifteen dollars a month, you s news and world reports, name simply save the best overall home security of twenty twenty two. I simply say today at simply safe dot, com, slash politics, that's ass, I M p. L, I safe dot com, slash politics, you get free shipping and sixty day risk free trial, there's nothing to lose that simply safe dot com. Slash politics: Joe Biden previously said that he would announce his pick for a running me around August first, which is this coming Saturday, and that's a self imposed deadline, so the announcement could come any time between then and the convention, presumably, and the convention is on August seventeen. So you know about two weeks and gear where war surely be in high season for VP speculation and war. Kick things off right here on this pipe cast, although of course they ve been kicked off in other publications as well, maybe not necessarily speculating so much as talking about how the different picks could influence views of the campaign,

Now I mentioned earlier that direct electoral consequences of a vice presidential peck are not so clear and limited if they do exist, but just a kind of get those out there. What are the potential effects like Arthur G traffic or demographic effects at all. So there are some fairly modest geographic effects. They tend me is pretty dig. Did he isn't it an inversely proportional to how big the state is. So if you aren't the pick, and it from Alaska why honouring or Delaware two names, Recent examples of VP states that path he probably has the biggest that there was a small state that witness yearly when you very much if you take a VP from Caliph. Our Florida or New York or taxes. Then it's likely a lot more minor, so you know it might be worth a pointer to

the point too, in the key state might not be nothing but like, but it's not a huge effect aren't, so perhaps we can be more important in how they shape views of the ticket overall and the media narratives that a march. So let's talk about some of the? U no positive or negative spin pros and cons that could come out of violence, possible selections. Parry. Why do you keep things off for us and do you want to pick something to talk about, or should I throw it to you, I'll pick Harris. I she's the most obvious persons. Others government issued a clear front runner right now. Would you say Yes, I'm sure people will debate this way. Yesterday, she's the sort of most logical person that everyone in politics thankfully picked, even if they dont say about will bigger we get so in terms of the the media, narrative others this river. This way. So if she gets picked, I think the coverages Joe Biden Pixel.

Who ran resident, who seem like the logical person to pig in certain ways. Distich both acknowledges the big role the black people play in that Riddick Party and also in some ways it is probably a reaction to the protests we seen ass. Few months have shows your by and is trying to be in touch with that movement. It'll be probably less about her individual want some level more about sort of heard the dynamics as a leading black female politician. It ought to be framed in that historical nature of we ve never had a. Black woman on the national ticket before so the positive of that is that you know actually, in this case, I am not totally sure, there's a that'll be sorted. This the pay, the positive cars

be, did Joe Biden is trying to respond to this moment? America I did in my view the negative of there will be it'll, be black black black black black black black black it'll, be the coverage. Harris and I'm not totally sure, that's helpful in country that eleven yeah at Paris thing I mean in some ways she is she sort of practically take some worries away from the campaign because she's a experience campaigner. She knows how to comport herself on the national level she's a good speaker. She can be kind of compelling. What so interesting to me about it. Paris is picked and I think Perrier right. The conversation will be about her symbolic importance. Is she spent a lot of time in her career, pushing back against those narratives, because she's been

First, lots of things. You know she's been like the first black female, something in a lot of the jobs she's held and she has been prickly about that kind of up. Until I think the presidential runway you kind of have to become a little bit more of declares a woman as black woman a little bit more of a softer embracing character of all that. But I do think that there are still, as this spiciness around calmly Harris when people kind of say: what's it like to be the first and show

of say I don't! I don't think about it. I do my job, and so I could also see her being. You know in interviews where people ask about their that peat her being good at turning the conversation around and talking about. Well, I was a prosecutor which you know that the whole of the conversation you know, there's a way that I think she is deft about handling that question. But it is particularly shocking to me that she is the person if she's picked, that they'll be a symbolic conversation around, because I think she's, probably personally a little bit irritated by that. Why? But there's a lot of potential choices are briefed on the west. Were the conversation will be also a symbolic one about the historic nature of the choice you mention the wonders you, my talk about is being a prosecutor. How much do you think

the narrative turns to Joe Biden campaign is not concerned with the the warriors of the left or the more progressive part of the party. I think the narrative was talk about the topic. I so I dont think that Joe Biden can have that many problems getting voters from the laughed gave him this. The country right now. So I think people talk about, I know probably be thoroughly in same categories like discussion of work, the letter cancel culture right people's stuff beloved debating, but that is surely resonate with it average Americans or even average, very lessening Americans. I do think the prosecutor stuff we say brother, my original answer is going be discussed. Is gonna change votes? No, I am not suggesting a word, but I do think there will be there'll be reporters who go out an interview interview the protesters in there.

A great another stories about protestors. Who are black, saying we didn't answer this person She doesn't address our concerns. In fact, we think she's bear for the tick. I think that'll be a narrative is out there. What is it totally Robin I'm sure most, the over majority of black people will vote for the ticket for Joe Biden about who is right? is that there will be a nearer. I think is important and advised, and Harris had to be so to prepare, for we know welcome to the treaty. Stream. We took on trying to get both vote democratic. You know, that's, there's gonna be a challenging discussion f, but they might also see it as a positive right if, if the Biden campaign is worried about your they're, still there far ahead of Trump, but if they are worried about three months from now is things Titan and people are trying to paint trying to paint Joe Biden as soft on crime. They can say like come on guys. This is a stupid conversation like Harris

prosecutor she's the good kind of prosecutor. If you're talking to Democrats but she's, a serious person she's not around here too, like defined the police, like, I think in some ways they might see it as an asset to the eye does given the conversation that we had during the first half of the pod past. Of course, that will be a dynamic. Let's move on. We got a lot of people to talk. Let's talk about Tammy, Duckworth, blind, useful of women Negotiator Illinois. Do you heard of your first timid upward, senator from Illinois? What kind of you no message? Does this send about Joe Biden ticket? How does it get processed in the press in ITALY, terrorism that she's, veteran and and the cheese Asian American and those are two things that I think we most mentioned. I think the other context will be. He picked somebody differently, pics and maybe we didn't expect. I think that'll come out in the coverage a little Billy. He picked a person of color

but not a black person that anything goes it'll, go to the fact that these issues and oversee the country a sort of pick day so unexpected way to go about the negative coming. Would be you're gonna get a lot of like there's been a whole movement around pick, a black person before this there's been a when around us is George Voice? There you'll get Bobby critique from certain black elites and your security from certain liberal elites You know who were busy firms of war and we'll get a critique Duckworth, not having the right little cottage like those are two critiques you'll get not liberal enough and not black, those things are things that again, I dont think our electorate that important, but I think those are the narratives look, a method that is well she's. Also very compelling candidate, though that I think it's. If you're going for someone who's in evocative inspirational character, I think Duckworth is one of those I mean. In addition to being you know, an amputee, a veteran which

he's, probably something the Biden connects with her on their like at he is very like cloth close to his heart is, is the sort of the veterans issues Trickly given his son, so I think that that something that you could probably seem connecting on asking the fact that Tammy Duckworth, you know- I think it was like a year or two years ago, where she was the first senator to bring a child onto the floor. She had kids late in life like there's a lot of

connective thread that I think people would like seeing in they would see themselves in it in a time when America is really struggling. These are two people who fundamentally understand what trauma and suffering is, and they are able to pull through their kind of like these inspirational figure. So you could see that happening. What about you noticed something to bring up in a similar vein to what you said: Perry about the coverage of Paris, largely revolving around her being black, and whether that is something that stirs up certain anti black sentiment. In the country you know tell me: Duckworth was born in Bangkok, Thailand and consider what happened to Brok, Obama and conspiracies about him, not being an american being born in Kenya, etc, etc. You know, given that this is the person second, in line for the presidency, should we expect the fact that she wasn't born in America to become calling card of the right or of the conspirators

We all far right. I mean I think, and I became a colleague Karl the term campaign- we're not very subtle about any of this right yeah. I'm sure that will be debated I am sure that the other dark stuff too. Write. Her legs were agitated and, like I'm sure, at dark anything with anybody. You do with the trunk campaign right. He's gonna come now. Right would often come out with more traditional campaigns to but, like you know now Would that actually hurt her maybe another kind of case where kept people left it binds and dot worse defence and a maid trumpet campaign, look worse and he was very clumsy and not going about it. I'm not saying I be like smart right or effective or at any reason, not to pick her. But what come out. I mean, of course We see the answer this in the past. She says: I'm,

or of the day are what else do you want, which is kind of an interesting thing for a politician to do oh, it's obvious that she knew that she would have this problem, that she rose in the ranks and it's you know she's in it in a heritage organization connecting her too The revolution is interesting and then she's use that chocolate with like Tucker Tucker, Karlsson Dear, are being daughters of the American Revolution. What IRAN and talk about Elizabeth Warren, I guess the choice of the progressive left for the most part, although they have some other people that they ve been. Supporting as well. What's the upshot here so the big near an ice in the media coverage would be in the middle of a process in the middle of massive reception because of a pandemic, Joe Biden picks expert on you know, policy, expert economics, export, etc. The Leonardo give course Joe Biden. I'm worried about enthusiasm on the left wing of his party picks the person who is you know what

liberal, like of the Democratic Party? So those are the two had a narrative, I think the Mena. Obviously I think the economic export is the framing they would like instead of lists of war, and who knows the detail, everything whose apologies for we have all these problems She has the plans of its unless the positive narrative ISIS the negative narrative is left left Bernie Sanders. Motionless. Very liberal, extremely liberal, and I think that's the thing that'll be adopted? Elam the two and I'm not getting, notably the more Dobbin element yeah. I think Harry's ragged at that, No oh, come out all right. I think some of their framing would be ok. I've level, this debacle, to my tribe or something really like buying, was coasting to victory. A promising a return to normal sea, and then he nominates radical left alive, worn who wants a revolution? You know I did there be some of that. Ferreting, I think It also be questions around

You know why you're not taking a woman, Color. At this moment there might be he's around age, so you know it, so it's not the most like risk givers. Maybe not a lean into a pretty heavily right have to lean into it in turn the saying actually do need to think about changing you know it's a new normalized Lisbeth, it's gonna be part of that kind of leading into her waggishness energy out. She can be persuasive campaigner and stuff like that. Still permanent things like because it's a different direction than the other picks that, like it's less likely to happen, because by would, after like plan for the Thai restart reward. I think rather other choices and, like the song, it's her that maybe she started and chosen some very, very elaborate smoke screens. They could probably not her in part because you seem Ellen

so the last during to argue for other choices a bit too and that other tourist being maybe Karen Bass, potentially Maybe it is. Are you referring to yeah years there's direction and people in others? I am actually been. Some of that lately even handed discussed here on her own merits. Necessarily like the most, but you know, but it seems like the people. Reading the tv. You think that it was the foreign is not a very likely choice. I do not put that much talking, all kinds of second hand, interpretations of tea leaves, but but between them, withdrawing him said by amendment eight women of color between you know, standing by kind of a risk over. Guy. I think

not when the more likely tax so much talk about the chair of the congressional blackest, Karen Bass, whose name has come up more recently? I think politico ran a piece last week, calling her a potential unity pic. I think unity between the left and more moderate parts of the party being the reference there. She's, not a particularly well known politicians should not really a national politician. So how? How does that narrative develop? What are we looking at? I think it's interesting that she's been brought in later on and part of her competitive advantage among everyone else is that she kind of fits with the Biden Administration as Bridge Administration, in the sense that people like that, she doesn't seem to have outsize play

glam missions that she would necessarily be spending her for years and the White House priming herself for run. Perhaps there would be no, you know younger. You know whatever, whatever that, whatever the party decides they want for years from now, will there be you, no more liberal or younger or whatever it is that she wouldn't be someone who had a huge sake in plotting up a political future and that she is sort of ideologically satisfies the Camorra liberal wings, the black woman. So it's it's helping us the symbolism that you would you want on a ticket? Theoretically, but I do think it's it's kind of interesting because she had a low profile, people would be interest yo. The two elements of the covers a bee who who who is that? First,

like a little bit like Sarah Palin, as I think that she would have fairly low name. I d, I'm not appearing here against Serbia would accept and I think they re sort of unknown choices who people to Know- and the second part I think, will be a lot of focus on in moment of George Lloyd. You picked Blathers me a lot of progress on black agree. I think, would be with her as well to think again, I'm not sure the coverage of oppressive being black is great. If you're Vienna running her almost in America in, I tend to think the who I have now, I mean admit your invested. You time, I guess, if there's elements of the the who is going to mean more biographical pieces writ about her, then if it was Harris or Warren, and if we don't know, I don't know personal details of her biography, hopefully for her there, good it, but she's not been visited by

media. In the same way, I know that binds team is probably went. Every country's images in her life and an already with the media might uncovered things that the binding. Doesn't it s the sort of risk, verses, worn and Harris had been very very since what it does strike me that they ve run a very small, see conservative campaign and that in the general election right there not they are kind of doing the base. The immediate there's, not a full basement campaign, a more but the sense of like kind of low profile. Let things right right, don't make big waves does make you think, like our way, Papa go with kind of like a safe choice, a known entity, unknown quantity rather than you no kind of an interesting blue. Like that's an interesting thought, I don't know. There's this

something to me about like a safety instinct with this campaign, which I think is understandable, given the turbulent national climate yeah, I mean both dimmer melbury you're, going ahead in the bulls and that people want Landon illusion of safety. Right, I think parlor calculation is ok. What is the choice that has the least outside right is the greatest: do no harm yeah usually roll up rule be pace made, especially the role with the sleepy back does someone who's relatively anonymous, like, like Karen Bass represent less risk, as you won't get in the way of anything right. Or a someone like Camel Harris S. Whiskers people know her name more but with Camel Harris two bit of a mixed signal in that she didn't campaign and get and predict sensibly. Her campaign did not go super well right, so you wouldn't say

a person who is at an end, so campaigning other many unsuccessful presents a camel, including in himself and later on become six for winning VP nominees banana Mean summers feels like a kind of like the balance between safety and other considerations right kind of qualifications in, and you know, maybe that leads the directions that we're gonna talk about in the future, here alone, like Susan Reiser, something right. What have you got it excise and like the bulgarian trying to calibrate. What's the least downside, then I think it probably a decent paradigm for or what they're doing yeah. Let's move on and talk about some of the possibilities that Joe Biden is considering. That may be lesser known, but first today's pocket is brought you by white stream. If you want to save money the summer, why not start by paying less interest on your credit card balances, refined? with a credit card consolidation loan from light stream.

An easy way to save hundreds of thousands of dollars and lower your interest rate light stream offers fixed rate credit card consolidation loans from five point: nine five percent, a pr with ATO pay, an x, credit. That's lower than the average credit card interest rate of over nineteen percent, a pr by trim, Roar customers who have good credit with great interest rate and no fees get alone for five thousand dollars to a hundred thousand dollars, and you can even get your money as soon as the day you apply. Donors can save even more with an additional interest rate discount. The only way to get that discount is to go to light stream dot com, slash five, three eight, that's Elijah HD asked he r e m dot com, slash five three eight subject to credit approval,

rate includes point five percent, auto pay, discount terms and conditions apply and offers are subject to change without notice visit, light stream, dot com, slash five, three eight for more information. Susan rice, as you mention nay, has come to the fore in part because of her close relationship already with Joe Biden, the fact that she is a black woman and near she has plenty of experience in Washington, although of course she has never been a candidate, never one elected office. What is the pros and cons of a choice like that? Don't seem to fit with priorities a conservative, Peck Innocent, hasn't want to one elected office. So I think the the narrative will be two things that will be, of course, she's a black woman. Speaking to this when I think that will be an obvious when I didn't throw Ba Joe Biden, is running the suitable, Bhamo restoration Campaigning and he picked one of all bombers senior buys a suitable vomit.

Entire time. He was an awful think, it'll be a big part of the narrative in another. Big part will be the sort of legs, I'll be a little bit of the Benghazi Susan raised me too. Firstly, they are being guys rate, as will the Republicans take advantage of this. Are we re doing the Obama years overdue? That'll be a big narrative is well, and then this Fourth narrative will be never run for office. Was he actually has a lot of experience in government? I think that also to cut both ways in some ways, like somebody who has not been running around in president for a long time actually might to voters be an advantage of sorts like we. We pick somebody who's, not necessarily been you trying to aspire residences day, one we pick somebody who, whose production scream. I want to do the job as opposed to. I want to give speeches and talk a lot. So that's like one that

a positive or negative. I dont know getting gauzy covers and it will come up. It is definitely a negative, I'm sure some of their thinking about, I think the Obama restoration of is a great potential thing for them. I think a lot of people Obama's very popular is sort of like we're. I return to normal Joe Biden, Susan Rice. It reinforces their ticket. I sort of big when I think about the pics here this, Susan Rice them. What I'm thinking about you know I am writing the be writing the initial peace or by thirty eight, when we pick mismanages big and I'm thinking more firstly by Susan, rising, mostly we ve talked about Agus did pick, makes a lot of sense to me when I think about how the media would come yeah, it's definitely the return to the abandoned Ministration Biden spent so much of the primary campaign, reminding voters that he was Bronco Bombers vice president and, like you know,

Halcyon days rice is like a very she sort of like a pillar of competency in the sense of like she's, not like someone, I think who gets up on a stump in like losses that campaign each arm. She's a policy person she's a walkie person which is not to say she doesn't do a lot of public speaking, but I would be interested to see like again. This goes to the weird nature of the campaign this year. How much she would be like on the campaign trail virtual or not, and how much it would be like Susan Rice is doing a really hands on work with like the transition, because you know. We think that this is gonna, be we need to be. You know, ready even before day, one whatever it is like I'd I'd kinda be curious to see what sort of spin they'd they'd put on her as kind of like getting back immediately to work. This is someone who super familiar with government, the.

Edged with Obama, the invisible bridge or whatever you know I mean- are visible on me. I think moods wants to be explicit I will convey for a third term and fine I'll on that for some reason that my group will be maybe staying up too late? We're gonna model not being able to be critical of his? I wanna be, but there's something about like if you someone who is a safe pig right? She was in the White House. Faster than a scrutinised where the entirety of Obama's eight years in off. That's right. So there's some degree of that have just taken place. She has security credentials. She made. I have pain for office before were right. That then, ok, people who had run national campaigns most of our, not unless shortlist anyway, and, like I mentioned earlier, the one who did come, whereas a kind of a mixed success shall we say as a national candidate and so you know you're right, you can understand like Paris, a kind of

why Biden might be might be led him. Some kind of did. You know that diverse paradigm yeah I mean when it comes to risk a virgin you do after one or both the not previously elected and to her nomination to Secretary of State God. You know well held up and then clashed because of the whole Benghazi story and how she came out and said that the attack on the consulate there had to do with an Anti Mohammed video that people were angry about and I ended up not being the case. I mean obviously there's. Although there was a lot of politics involved in

degree to which bring gauzy was emphasised during the balmy years, but you know what you would be curious to see how the campaign thinks about dealing with that yeah she's. Also, like I don't know how much this would come up if they picked her but she's. Also incredibly ensconced in Washington, like I believe her family, like her mother, was very good friends with Madeleine Albright, like it's a very like DC, she's, very DC person, not just career wise, but I think, like upbringing, wise side kind of a curious and who knows, if that's gonna people would even pay that much tend to do it. But it's just like an interesting thing: tickly when you think back to twenty sixteen and trump constantly beating the outsider drum or it for should we talk about next, we got with their store lotta people on the list of possible. Does anyone got a choice? Now then think was an egg or would be an interesting pink. I know that she is fallen off a little baby. I don't know why were talking about this?

teens again which their reference, of course of legal protection markets at one point about was rocketing up rocking it standing, the conventional wisdom, and now it's kind of cheese fallen back a little bit, but you know former chief of the Orlando police from Initiative Florida, but from a swing state in Florida, will be carried out, has some local experience, obviously ready As you know, in on the surface, it seemed to be allotted Is there a right? I do wonder if there are concerns and left whatever else about like people call a couple. Call me this is our. Like literally, was a cop right nature. There would be examination of parity are in Orlando, but you know, but it seems fairly logical, and have criteria that by my thicker by we don't have to guess. Political has already done a story on her time is the police or landowners? This isn't. She was pretty defensive of officers who were involved in controversial incidents. So I think that would we

You got to get their stories already. I think that that would be a real problem for her even more than Harris a big part of the media narrative and a one We really have to think about it. The victor I mean Creating that kind you you're late. A little bit too bindings benefit right, we're like oh, my god. She might be too conservative on these issues rather than in other countries like very concerned with police violence. You know I'm not sure that it will be a little bit like by himself right where I mean half a time when people left like a bite to moderate and one of them actually helps Biden, net net mistrust electorate. I think that the deal to read in the media narrative and on these issues very different. Since I agree with you on the Elect report of may not be, the worst is to have the left saying: she's she's, a black woman, she's too conservative. I would not want to be a sort of bide instead have to deal with the first floor,

days of people bringing up like this person, Orlando with an officer gets, I dont know. There is some risk that the debate about policing and democratic party you get. Criticise too much for taking the units of the younger black vote for It's an exotic there'll be a lotta complaining with the dealings Biden ticket. Is that matter elect him? If you, obviously you win whites are rather than wait, swing voters in black, but what authority is the one who is much bigger than the other? But I think that one, be very happy to see, and I think that will be a mediator and I would not want to do with Ike Harris rather, president is able to get out get the policing issues off the table. To some extent, I wonder if dimming spins, you ve been two weeks on them with her, I mean it

if you're a mayor of Europe, Elise, chief, your kind of gonna be inextricably tied to your police department because your job to defend them, you know so it. I think you get into this problem with like black white, whatever, like state and city officials, will have at some point been on the record defending officer actions or controversial actions. Probably speaking of mayors somebody's been on the list for one time I think has been acknowledged to be on. The short list still is crucial when bottoms mare of Atlanta. What are the ups and downs that I think the those coverage will in part B? I think she's perceived right or wrong. I've not study this to be handling covert. An affair Aggressive way and like you could see like the pic is Joe by you know. In the time of the time of Covert and George Floyd Joe Biden,

pigs. Vice president, someone is perceived to be biting covert, pretty well leading that effort and also someone who fired their police chief in the last few months. In the midst of this receive suggesting she's sort of like aware of what's happening on racial indicators. I think that is the those are the two things and, along with along with the other big inherited being Joe Biden, pick the mayor of a of a place who happens to be blacks. I think there will be definitely a sort of imply fomented action. Maybe she's not qualify part of their two that I think, would be in the coverage, if not stated, directly than sort of implied so Maybe a mayor would be unusual. We decided on by the merest big for VP recently, so she's been realised. This is very good on tv, I would say I think that she might be able to explain her qualifications pretty well. In this time in the world's history being a black mayor of a big towns. I think this is, but I do think that a narrative achieves maybe unqualifiable also show up, I think, being pro

Responsive corona virus public official, particularly in the south, probably provides an advantageous contrast, and I think it's also. You know I don't know for gonna how much we can talk about like Stacy Abrams, but the idea that if you want to pay someone from a state that would be like a real, a real wonderful win for Democrats Georgia would be really interesting and Nate. I'm kind of curious to hear you know you're staying at the top of the segment that, depending on the size of the state that the candidate the potential VP from a state might have liked negligible effects, I'm kind various what you think about the let's say the Georgia and the Michigan situation like those those size and envy potential VP effects for those particular states onwards, and here of course you know when you don't want measure going to turn my Gretchen Whittemore and the other option for Georgia, as you mentioned, is Stacy Abrams, so yeah need Talkin,

George Georgia is one of the more interesting ones right, a medium sized states. It's a state that. Currently is compared. I think is not that. First, what we call the tipping point, namely state that could be decisive, so in theory, leaning heavily into Georgia could be interesting. You know Brian Cowen, its response to reviving enters into the unpopular there in Georgia, which is at its own fairly that outbreak it might be Little matching, whether remember about Europe here, is that it's what it's pretty polarized, some a pillar not very elastic name like yeah, Georgia's close to fifty even it's kind of hard for Democrats get over the home because it is divided between borders and upper limit urban. Why the professionals in cities I get by on the one hand, and then there conservative, white, evangelicals and. And many other attacks. The state, on the other hand, rights it's like you, don't have to swing. Voters

but I can never be a logical pack right. I think if binding were worked for points ahead, the Senate Eight points ahead then he might be a little bit more inclined to go in that direction. I think, both she and April. Like everyone right in terms of how the media narrative revolves around Biden ticket with both Gretchen Whittemore and casual ants, bottoms is the campaign kind of tying itself to the covert outcomes in those two states in the run up to the election. And it is that of potential reason that a risk of our campaign would dear away from somebody who has executive experience at a time like this, you can probably argue it either way in Georgia right. If go down than you say: ok, it's because

near bottoms in which these like Atlanta are doing right and they show this can be effective cases get worse places because Brian Camp, You did with her without wishing the science where he could probably play that either I think I do think about them. Weekly, ABC new statement, which I hope turning into the EU by that? I do think that, like maybe the country a little bit underrated Chance like there is a lot. We don't know about current virus, maybe some things come together and things seem to be demonstrably improving by November in general answer from bombing campaign. I don't think it's like Georgia specific risk, as this was actually I agree with you deal and I actually well of you asked. The question would actually think now that I've thought about this, that debt

the risk that I had not considered. Is this like your perceived as handling covert or you proceeded handling together, police shooting, poorly any your area? That's probably going to be harmful to you in the chair. It raises Cobbler Harrison WAR and in depth. Work are really in charge of anything, so that does make them soda like nominally more or less risky, because, like governing choices, do matter right now. People look at those close. Eta gets interesting point, so we mention a lot of people here. There. You know, there's Michel due on Gresham there's Tammy Baldwin, I dont know what the shortlist exactly looks like I want to say anything about those possibilities or any one else he's out there as as a potential peck Michelle Obama. You have to go there. Sorry, the scottish teens ever like before you get most likely company, I don't get. It happened,

and we ve information Alabama wish, should excluded from this narrative taken as a terrorist we're flying it is so. My final thought is: this is a big pick in terms of how you see Joe Biden. However, I think that the important thing is like nay can it hid? It is an outrage directly. I sort of Sea Joe Biden is a fairly a person with a big league. And I stood on a fairly conventional, traditional politician who doesn't make a lot of big risk, so I think, is very likely he picks cobbling heiress. I think, if somewhat likely, we Susan Rice, I would be surprised but not shock- is pick Elizabeth, worn and I would be us How do you think anybody beyond those three, if I'm not gonna, make it

it shouldn't cause. I've had only could operations by duty in this case is worth sort of thinking about. How do you see the person is a politician and they will likes. I thought Mitt Romney would pick a governor for like Paul Ryan was, the bravest picking the world, but it was a little bit surprising that be the Mitt Romney didn't pick. Another senator governor is what I expect from him. Like Obama, I wrote about TIM, came being picked in June worry twenty? Sixteen that was Hilary, did exactly what I thought she would do. I wrote in February that I thought it become aware: bite does not become an heiress edited. There's a big one It's three I'll be spreading out. We gotta be a happy, but obviously to be wrong, but I think it also to change my thoughts about his his own thinking. What I think about here, none, I think that it is right that, like look Usually these pics dollar fairly, pretty the ball trajectory unless someone's way behind them. They are bolder. I mean, there's like not any particular reason to deal

from that strategy. Right is not some game theoretic, optimal spot reactor like use deception, something like that? Right minutes will be deception like you somehow. I do wonder if, like please mini bubbles around Bell, demings or maybe even Susan Rice Little. She seems to be taking very seriously right. I do wonder if some of this is like, maybe the carriage of like he's, trying to build a little bit of intrigue to make her seem less The ball will mean, I don't know well, we will know soon enough and we will convene an emergency pike asked one that does happen, but until then we'll just let the speculation right. Let's leave their. Thank you. Thank you gave him. They declared skin and thank you bury they steal. My name is given droop Tony chow is in the virtual control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also cost. We deal with questions or comments if you're a fan of the show leave us

building a review in the apple pie, cow store or tell someone about us, things were listening and we'll see you