Where what's in these any says, you're a white. It's a girl. I thought that I was up all night and nieces yeah like what your wings daughter hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty politics podcast, I'm gay group and today we're going to take an in depth. Look at Senator Elizabeth Warren's bid for the democratic nomination, so worn been in second place in the real, clear politics average of national primary polls for a little over a week now, and it's the first time that she's clean to that spot. Apart from a one day, black back in July and Overtook Senator Bernie Sanders to get their warranty, pulling around seventeen percent to Biden's. In Sanders, is sixteen percent in those national averages. There's some measure of the conventional wisdom a week ago, Warren overtook Biden as the,

we to win the nomination? According to betting markets on predicted, it was just ahead months ago that Warren was pulling fifth or sixth nationally, with numbers in the mid single digits and following the backlash to the release, or dna test, she seemed like a longshot. So here we need to talk about how Warren made her come back and what her staying power looks like our senior politics, writer Lemelin. How are you also weather, says managing editor Michael Cohen, hello and joining us from Kentucky, is senior writer, Perry, Bacon Junior? How are you I'm doing great good to see you guys? Likewise, an Nate is out but also later in the show we are going to take stock of how the conversations about mass shootings and white nationalist terrorism have developed in the two weeks since the shootings in El Paso and Dayton. But let's begin with and perhaps we can think of this as an updated theory of the case like we did when candidates originally got in the race so clear for starters,

How do you think about how Warren made her come back from fifth or sixth in the polls nationally, so I'll kind of cribbed from a very good piece by Walter Shapiro in the new republic? He did it, pile of Warren and he basically is talking about this whole narrative of her sort of gradually ticking up in the polls. He's saying you know what chain, She you know in the movie version of this. How would it play out- and his answer is that nothing really changed, she's sort of been doing the same exact thing, the entire time and it seems like the slow and steady wins, the race kind of thing, not literally, but so. Instead, he takes up in the polls and overtakes the second on the leader Board for pulling average, I guess in the five hundred and thirty eight parlance, but I think to answer it more fulsomely. She is over a period of several months. Basically, since she launched built an identity that is surrounded by

a see plans. Now, there's like this whole mean this whole thing that her campaign is, is sort of trying to use of the. I have a plan for that. She is t shirts all this stuff. Now, if you read some of the plans more detailed than others, but they are all. Out there, and you know two thousand to two five hundred words on medium and you can read them. The idea is she sort of getting herself as eminently prepared govern. I the vision of this all this stuff and she is caught on. Among essentially Hillary Clinton, vote. I would say the democratic primary electorate, like surprising number of profession urbanites early college. Educated white people, which tend to be like the readership, the New York Times and the columnists of the New York Times so there's a certain and I would call it word of mouth energy. That's a little bit of a trickle down from from the top. Is that a? Is that a good kick off a yeah? It is a good kick off and I agree with all of it except I do think there is a distinction between warrants voters and Clinton voters. I mean there's

or lap it there, but, as you would expect, with Clinton, she was pulling at sixty percent in the polls, and Warren has fifteen to twenty percent. Warren support is much more limited very liberal white educated urban, religiously unaffiliated, then Clinton Support was Clinton. Support was a little more diverse sure. I guess I guess yes, I mean person primary field verses. Of course. However many person primary field- and I guess I say clint- voters to warn Warrenville because war, and so has in common policy wise with Sanders. I think it's just notable to say that that she is much as she is. The economic can she's an identity candidate for a certain kind of Democrat that wants that woke. Person. Vision of America like Elizabeth Warren is to them sort of safe. Because

they ran a white middle aged white lady before and you can either go with the thing up. Well, she won the primary and she won the popular vote, but you can also say well, she lost the electoral college, Warren kind of combines that, like the populism of Bernie, I don't know, there's a certain like safeness I think that a lot of Democrats seem to be starting to feel with Warren. That to me feels a little bit like all. These are the People who shunned Bernie Sanders, but now a person who holds a lot of his politics is being embraced by them. Kind of what I'm trying to get a. No no- and I agree with that- and actually it's notable we, we ran a piece last week that showed that Warren is actually from. If you look at who people voted for and twenty sixteen Warren is actually drawing her support, equal, the from Bernie voters in twenty sixteen and Clinton voters, and

two thousand and sixteen, which I think is notable as you say, because she has so much policy similarity with Bernie. It suggests this other thing going on with her drawing from Clinton voters. I think it's interesting that you describe her feeling safe to some people right, we can get more into what doubts people may have or whether they do you think she is safe in either the primary or the general, but before we get to that Can you wait in here on how Warren, has risen steadily from x nationally now to second, so I think she actually had a really good campaign strategy to line up with her, so you have to campaign Or you know more than a year, so her thing is: I'm the Tokias of Milwaukee's of the Waukee an each week I'm going to roll out or each to enroll at a plan, something in America happens and though she has a plan so it's really well into a campaign like if you compare her to Joe Binds Camp campaign is basically I'm

actable. You can only say that one you can say that every day, but it's not a particularly interesting way to campaign Kamala Harris Campaign is like I'm left, but not deadly and that's sort of like about other people, not you pizza's I'm young and he says I am young in a variety of ways, but it's still the same message. I think Warren has a great way to sustain a year long campaign, and you can tell people like every issue she has a response to. She is in the news cycle. People are talking about her other. Can it's reacting to her? I think, is a really well organized and thought out campaign Do you think that this is somewhat of a reversion to the mean, in the sense that this is where we would have expected her to be all along without the negative coverage and backlash surrounding the dna test? Or is this something totally different like this is a strong campaign working its way up through the polls, and when she was fifth or six, it wasn't just about the dna thing. That's really where she was naturally an she's progressed since oh

yeah. I don't know I mean I thought an interesting thing that that Walters piece pointed out was that and I'd kind of forgotten this? I think we talked a lot about. How she made this announcement about. Listen, we're not going to take big fund raising big donors. Lawyers and her had a finance quit you really spent a lot in the first couple of months in early states, building up like an organization and his line that pieces like you can up an organization and do the media after, but you can't have a months long organization whenever there's some things that need to come into place first, so maybe it's a sense of like oh yeah, they've kind of been plugging and chugging the whole time and had a vision of what this is going to be. I do think, though their initial stumbles with the native American DNA test

beliau certain blind spot of the Canon, probably her inner circle, which is not as diverse and not as like with it necessarily, but they seem to course correct pretty quickly on that all things. Speaking for this campaign, I think a lot of it's just kind of a reversion to the mean, I'm if you remember when she was languishing in the low single digits in the polls, we were all sitting here being like well yeah. Why isn't she doing better even weeks after the dna test controversy? The other part I do think is what Perry said, which is she's an Emma Claire, just mention, which is run a really good campaign. It's been substantive. I think she's she's been smart about organizing in the early states having that infrastructure. The other thing, though, is she's caught some breaks in terms of who else has struggled

one Bernie, I think, has well, I think, it's safe to say the campaign for Bernie hasn't gone as well, as they probably hoped just in terms of he starts off really high name recognition, pretty meaningful support in the polls that support dips a little bit. He's kind of feels a little bit, I think like a rerun at two twenty, sixteen, not a lot of new notes. Warren capitalizes on that better work struggles. I also think have been kind of inherent for Warren in the sense that he's the White College educated, liberal yeah, exactly so, if you're, if you're, if you're, trying to target, at least as a first step to kind of super educated, super liberal, sag, white segment of the Democratic Party, the other candidates going for that doing, portly helps you're right, even even put a judge. The fact that the Buddha Judge surge

kind of has tapered off a bit. I think that's helped her to so MIKE is saying the other candidates have underperformed. I do think I don't have a very logical theory, the case Warren kind of bubbled into she could run. Electability has no things like double so she's in a bomb is a good strategy of running as issues person I feel like Beto Booker PETE. In Harris or all trying to run the Obama campaign of two thousand and eight I'm not left, I'm not center. I'm charismatic look how charming and exciting I am, and I do think that debt strategy may have not say Warren, had an opening to run sort of a policy based campaign because she was running is for people who kind of really not saying anything and then bye. And who is to the right of her yeah. I think that makes a lot of sense. 'cause there is that sort of Oh it I'm going to make a soaring speech edge of things and then there's there's Biden, who does just say, like I'm good friends with Barack and also

you know me, I will say like she has to warrants credit got intellect politics very recently, but her brand was always incredibly specific. I mean think about her first kind of national viral moment. I think it was this video of her doing that very small in someone's house speech about if you're wealthy in America, you used our roads. You did all these things like you didn't get by yourself- and I do think He has a little bit of that. Guy your I use this to describe a politician, but folksy right like there is a. The way she plays it up to the end. On the trail. Her stump speech is eight. Yes, perhaps anyway, it's very folksy, but I think that that's kind of authentic to who she,

I mean I've talked about this with friends before about the way she presents. Herself is actually quite different from a lot of female politicians. Let's just look at like Harris, Gilibrand and clubbish are all dressed in. In finding tailoring of a professional woman right for lack of or sheath dresses, sharp, suits pearls, in fact, Harris Sidebar there's a sort of like interesting little thing. She has with like she always wears pearls because someone relative, broader pearls back but like really, she just wears pearls because pearls or what you wear when you're in public life- and you want to look pretty, but you don't want to be. Anyway, Elizabeth Warren where's Lou sweaters and when she goes on the debate stage, she kind of wears her own version of like a suit jacket, but it's not quite the suit jacket that other women where she's, but she kind of, looks like your mom's friend who wears either.

Fish, or something more down market and athleisure, almost sometimes yeah, and it's kind of this that's probably how your grandma or your mom dresses and I think, that's sort of to her strength, I should also note that after we recorded our podcast last week, a video of Warren went viral of her running up on stage in New Hampshire. I saw several people comment on for like clear pointed that out last week that the older It's they're always trying to show themselves running into being active in order to you know, okay, is that they're not too old to be president? It says yes, she is projecting like I'm your spry grandma, so described where Elizabeth Warren is right now, but of course she's still in second. And barely in second place kind of just got there by still more than ten points ahead of her in the national polling averages. And when you look at

or in support, as you've already described. It's very white. It's very college educated, it's very liberal, it's very one part of the Democratic Party. So how does she get free? here to there and that's kind of the question that we asked A lot of these candidates got in the race, which was what's their theory for the case. How do they win the nomination so Perry? What do you see? What would have to happen from here or in to become the democratic nominee. So I tend to see it in terms of states, and I can see it very clearly that she could win Iowa, because she there is that white liberal base and I would exist for her. She could win New Hampshire because other whites state very educated near where she lives and then from there if she could win those first, two primers not easy at all, but totally there a possibility. Then I think it becomes a question of like

I think you to struggle in the south with a lot of sort of more conservative, white voters and African Americans. Who are, I think, any more closely to bind her hair. Somebody else like that, but I think if you win those first two primaries, they give you the momentum and helps our sort of grow, her basically, which gets an endorsement After that, I think the question is: how does she grow herbs outside of what you described? I think the answer is some early wins, probably help with that yeah I could potentially see Warren doing kind of well in Nevada, like getting maybe a big, a big union endorsement, because she speaks the language of unions. Her, having an organized team on the ground, turning people out to those caucuses? That could be good and then you could get back. I agree with parent like there's a lot of votes in the south and she probably are isn't going to get those, but she could win a few super Tuesday, one of the two super tuesdays, you know she could get some of those midwestern states. I could see her winning Michigan. I mean Sanders one Michigan, two thousand and sixteen

it's not to say that she would. She couldn't win a thing like that, so you could see her making her way through Oklahoma. You know just states where, where we don't think about that there hiding and I actually think to her credit, actually to a lot of can it's. But you are seeing them say: I'm painting here in Mississippi? or Alabama, and I'm going to come back right like the idea that they are more in as a as the candidate as a White Canada and the current candid of like White College educated people is cognizant of the fact that she would be embarrassing if she had no right black support or great, like that is an important part of the democratic coalition or not just embarrassing, but also perhaps not viable her candidacy to win the nomination, so we talked,

maybe a strategy in terms of just the sequence of primaries. But where does she actually have upside in terms of voters like which other candidates could she gain support from if they faltered, you know, 'cause even She is now she still wouldn't win and I'll caucus who gets hurt who's cars. Does she get when they fold? Ok, so one there's a share of Biden. Supporters who are mostly I in now, just because they think he's the most delectable so. If Warren wins Iowa New Hampshire, you would imagine all of a sudden she seems a lot more electable, 'cause she's winning elections. You know she picks up. Let's say a handful of percentage points from from Biden Sanders been sort of like hover, got around. I don't know what what's he been at like thirteen fourteen fifteen percent in national polls? You know if he is stuck there,

all the way up until Iowa. What like what does he do? I think that's a really interesting question I mean: do you think, there's any circumstance in which all Warren could make the argument to Sanders. If you don't drop out, Biden will win serve. You believe in your cause, Jeremy, yeah, and would that be? Would that be convincing to Bernie Sanders math test in Excel properly. You have to ask Bernie, holding possible Bernie Sanders with Indoor Swarn, if she he definitely is not going to bite I think there's not. I don't think those spring yes hospital. I don't think it happens until like after March, that should and that's more reading into like this. Ology of Bernie Sanders as a true believer in his singular knots in Bernie Sanders, and I don't I mean They'Re- all listed wait. This is not to like slash extra, no, there all version themselves, but they're all crazy, but like we all

the template of twenty. Sixteen, as sort of indication of how Bernie might make a decision, which is to say, like He was a little like play to the whistle kind of guy, so now. I don't know what he's going to do this time around. So here's another way to think about. It is what demographic characteristics does Warren. Kind of over index with right now at. Could she improve her support among the opposite of that? In other words, right now, Warren does disproportionately well with very liberal voters when you go to somewhat liberal, she does worse and when you go to moderate conservative, she does way worse could

see her doing a little bit better with some. What liberal voters, maybe but she's really liberal you know so so I think that'll be tough, look at race right. She does really well. She does disproportionate well with white voters worse with black voters, worse with hispanic voters. How could you reverse that that's a little hard to see to honestly it's the same problem. Bernie had the one area where I, where I can imagine that happening more. I'm remember that these demographic groups all over lap right. So this actually is in a perfect way. To think of but it, but she over indexes right now with very well educated voters you could imagine if she does it right her kind of populist structural change message resonating with voters without a college education voters who just have a high school

degree in the same way, Trump's right, populist message did still, though it is a little bit of the of the Bernie Prob. The only other thing I'd say is: if you look at like how it this is. This is all from up of really interesting pew report that came out of right now, d support. By can it it isn't super differentiated by gender. There's, not a candidate that doing really Matt well among women or men relative to one another and I'm curious to see if that stays the same or or or changes, depending on how the field to win at this I think I think the point about Warren. I don't frankly, see her excelling or competing with Biden. Harris like like Perry, sort predicted with black voters in the south but I do think she has an opportunity to win over moderate white voters and to make

agreement in the general election. She could do something to appeal to more moderate people and what I think, interesting that her campaign hasn't hasn't done. More of is play up. The fact that she used to be a republican play up the fact that she took a little bit of a winding road to get to her liberal positions. She in fact it almost felt like a full lifetime to get to those positions, and I think that that's a It's less of a neat narrative than single, mother which she is, which is currently sort of the thread of her stump speech, grew up in a household teetering on the edge of the middle class and poverty. But I think that I now that she was a Republican for much of her adult life is very compelling. If you want to win over more moderate voters, and I think This is where some of the like the weird: how, women and men are perceived when they when they try to do. Populism is really interesting because

while Warren grew up super middle class and spent most of her life as a Republican. She sort of reads as woman Harvard Professor: where is Joe Biden who has been, a senator since he was thirty. You know it's been in the national spotlight for a long time is still Scranton Joe and a lot of people's eyes middle class Joe, and so it is it's just a little bit of a different feeling, and those two things all right. Let's continue this conversation in just a minute, but first let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by Casper Mattress, it's the middle of the night, you're tossing and turning not sleeping drenched covered in sweat sure running the ac or fan all night- can help a bit but to sleep, really cool and comfortable, get rid of your heat trapping mattress and get a casper the Casper four layers of pressure: relieving farms for all night comfort. It's off your shoulders and firm on your hips for healthy alignment and extra support, plus breathable phones are designed to keep you cool all night all summer, long with bedding, bad

Ames and even a dog, bad Casper has everything you need to create the perfect sleep environment, also has free shipping and returns so you'll be able to try your Casper mattress for one hundred nights risk free in your own home sleep uncomfortable every night get a casper. Try yours for one hundred nights with free shipping and returns, go to Casper DOT, com, slash politics and use code politics for one hundred dollars towards the purchase of select mattresses, that's casper, dot, com, politics, code, politics and get one hundred dollars towards the purchase of select match. Alright, we're back, and we were just talking about. Perhaps some of the ways in which I was with Warren could pick up ground with other parts of the electorate and maybe in a sequential fashion, when the nominee and by convincing people that she is in fact electable. I want to read a quote actually from columnist Henry Olson in the Washington Post and see where you, if you think this is right and will go to you Perry, he wrote warrens tactics so far

more in common with those of evangelical religious right republican candidates. Then, with eventual nominees, those men MIKE Huckabee Ricks Forum and TED Cruz? You strong support From a large party faction to win early knockouts of other candidates with broader based support, but they each just when the race winnow down to the final stage, because the factors that burn them support from the just write, alienated them from the party's silent majority. Does that sound like Warren and perhaps an argument for why wouldn't go on to win the nomination. Not quite the idea, I guess here is a college educated voters in the Democratic Party are like evangelicals are welcome party. I don't totally see it that way, but I guess what I would say is kind of being. The candidate of white people with college degrees is limiting that's about one slash three of the democratic voters voted for Hillary. I do think one natural place for Warren to go is to go to. There are college educated,

who are not white. So that's a part of their credit party that we don't talk a lot, but this one place would be logical. Well, you can imagine sort of a Stacey Abrams style person. They came down to bite in verses. Warren would one of those I think, would endorse Warren over, but over biden- and I did- I wonder if you get some more black elected officials- Hispanic like that officials, people who are prominent to endorse Warren down the line this, you honestly wind the black vote, but she'll like narrow, the, because the key thing is, you can't have a gap that this the Sanders Clinton gap was so big you can make up for that. It warranted sort of have a more narrow gap. That's the key is not. She can so I think Henry is right that she can't be so factual that she can't win. I think the other thing I mean talking about getting like prominent politicians and surrogates of color in certain states to be powerful. Her for her people have made a lot of sort of like in the inside baseball baseball stuff about. Oh, would she choose cash,

there was a running mate. They seem kind of chummy, they seem kind of like they complimented each other publicly. The idea that someone like that drop out endorsing her. You know like that, if you're playing that kind of game are getting certain, prominent mayors like like, Inter Gillam that endorsement will will matter. I think when it comes when it when it happens, like they're people like that around the country who could come basically like let her credibility, sort of like to be a little bit frank about it kind of do what Obama does for Biden, which is sort of Land Elizabeth Warren like more, reach in minority communities and more credibility yeah. I agree with that. I should also say, and this to slightly correct what I said earlier in that Pew poll I'm- and I think this goes to the Castro point. Warren did best among white voters like I said she got. Twenty percent of first choice support, but yet you can't do that much worse among hispanic voters. She got fourteen percent of the first first,

I support? She got four percent among black voters, so maybe maybe that suggests that hispanic voters are a logical sort of like next step for her, which overlapped with what Perry said about college educated, non white voters. The other thing, though, I think this gets at Claire's point and it's a it's a key advantage. Warren has over Bernie, even though we're we're talking about like in some ways they have the the same problem in terms of how they build out their coalition. I do think it's. More likely, as Claire said, that Warren can get a lead endorsements than Sanders has been able to or will be able to, for whatever reason. She's. Just I mean there are a lot of reasons but she's just more part of the establishment and then the last thing I'll say up to that

about is the kind of very liberal college educated white section of the Democratic Party akin to the evangelical section of the Republican Party and therefore is Warren Affectional candidate in the way that sent a warm was. I think this gets out. The conversation we're having on the podcast last week about Iowa Right Iowa in both parties is defined by those factions right for Republicans, evangelicals for Democrats, very liberal white voters, and yet I was been predicted in the Democratic Party, but not predicted in the Republican Party, and I think that's. Why is a complicated question, but for whatever the reason it does suggest that the relationship between Those factions and a larger party is different between the two parties, as Elizabeth Warren has gained steadily in the polls. Does it seem like concerns about her quote, unquote, electability,

subsided at all I mean- to read these polls to say more people think she's electable than they did six months ago. I read them, but I don't know I'm sort of dubious about the we tried. I know where data focus website, but if you asked regular people, all you just go to South Carolina tomorrow and ask people what are we can water here win they'll say: are you even saying we just watched Hillary lose? You know, I mean, I think the women can't win as a really deep feeling among Democrats, and I think that's her biggest. Is it more about her ideology or her gender at this point doesn't seem those questions. I think it's will say it's about her ideology because that we have to say in college

then on tv. But if you actual voters talk about ginger lot, 'cause, they don't know much about ideology. I think we underestimate the truly pessimistic streak running through the democratic primary electorate in general. Just the idea of people not voting in a silly for what they want in their heart of hearts, but what there brain tells them. They should do because they're sort of trying to seek out what other people want. And yes, I mean, I think you there's there's just a lot of pessimism about who can when and where America is right now, after Hillary Clinton and after Obama's presidency, I was interviewed by Vogue reporter the tech point of the the Chic Mica five hours, telling clear last week that I appeared in vogue with that. What yeah Micah and Taylor, Swift,

his name hit Vogue the same day, I don't know if my code is one of them was a cover story. Is yeah yeah, one of us one of us, but the the conceit of the article was about Democrats who are resigned to Trump winning reelection, which I think there is this. This streak in the in the Democratic Party of deep pessimism, about what voters are ready for an led, but that I actually thought that the purpose of the articles interest because I mean it's not a crazy bias to have that Trump might well win the election. I mean he is the sitting president no. It's yeah. Now he has a very good shot of winning yeah. That's not crazy. To think it's like preordained is not supported. What at this point can What do the numbers tell us about how people view warns electability? They view her as as not as electable as as people like Biden or even or even like Bernie, I think, burn,

It is more electable than one is yeah, and I think we actually haven't talked, as I think in part, because there is I've been a lot of talk about race right and Joe Biden and her Booker and how they're going after Joe Biden's support the black community, and we, I think it's like we haven't, talked about sexism for awhile, but to go back to the guy. The idea of electability like yeah, like my two thousand and sixteen like a lot of people there was. There was a I remember sexism and like Adnan from all the dudes to follow us on Twitter. I got like where's the numbers on that it's like. Well, you can't you can't numbers to sexism everywhere. Some of it just like lies deep our hearts, but also but there is, but this is not a crazy thing to think that, like some,

electability notion surrounding it was before and have to do with like she talks. She talks kind of annoying and she reminds you my teacher, like people do like people. Listen to this podcast might be like that sounds crazy, but people say that stuff and people feel that stuff so yeah. I just think if you went to the republican convention in twenty sixteen and saw the number of science I called hello Rick. A you probably wouldn't question the Excel two and we're set no one worse yeah that takes him some of them, but just to put some numbers to Mchale and ask a you, Gov Survey asked people to select each candidate. They felt could beat Trump an Warren was ranked second behind Biden, far behind Biden. Six and sixty one percent of people picked by DIN forty six percent picked Warren then came Harrison Sand at forty three percent and it was a survey in which you could just mark whoever you thought

you can make as many cats as you want and then a I'm, a mom of pull from June. Ask people to assign a number value from zero to ten to each candidate select the bill he and Warren Place. Third, at six point four behind Biden at seven point one and Sanders at six point: five. Now I think a lot of that to Perry's point. It's just like, as her support has grown in the polls. First choice support, there's more people, I think, are inclined to answer positively on warrants behalf, other poll questions such as these, but look like I don't know. This is such a tricky conversation but, like we know that all else being equal, an average candidates for- from the ideological center, do have more trouble in general elections. That's just true will it apply to Warren if she's the nominee in twenty twenty, I don't know

We also know that, as Claire just said, there's a deep sexism within this country manifest itself in a lot of ways. Now studies show that when women run. They win at at a rate equal with Matt, right and similar conditions, but all the studies are of House House Races and Senate races in gubernatorial races, and I think there are reasons to suspect that running for president is different, but it's very hard to predict how how that will play out. In fact, it's hard enough to predict how that will play out that, like I don't you The probably safest best is not to make a bunch of assumptions about who is electable one and who is- and I don't think we know you make an asset of you and me exactly right.

Because, at least that you wear when you look at two thousand and sixteen of course, Hillary Clinton will not nomination of relatively easilly an came very, very close to winning the presidency and sort of take. Also that information and then say, there's no way a woman could win, feels like over emphasizing one part of the data and not allowing other parts of the data to speak as well. Oh absolutely, but I think this is sort of tide into other issues, which is that there is a device right in the Democratic Party between it's sort of left left and it's left center and a lot of people who don't warns big problem. Who is that I think she's going to have a real problem? She wins Iowa New Hampshire, also that the a certain part of the party will endorse anybody else. Who's standing there to make sure she doesn't win. Anyway, if Sanders and a big six. It is different than Warren, but he had a big problem. Sixteen that the basic

Every black person in America, who is elected official, basically endorsed Hillary Clinton. Today's standards, one Hampshire, because the party does not like the party with the party leader for Harris or bite into Warren or Sanders yes of the issue. I think that's a real Good point, and I would I think, if people want to know a little bit more about sort of, I would call it like the Intel. Troll arguments on the center left with Warren. If you go into the the the new Yorker, did a profile of her back in June can Elizabeth Warren when it all some of it is like sort of like your basic life story, profile thing but once you get if like maybe halfway through, there are some really interesting paragraphs that are from people who are sort of giving the what's the academic answer to why the wealth tax might not work, and I think it's an interesting Review, perhaps of what will see more of in maybe the later democratic primary. If she keeps doing well or the general election in certain spheres can can she win the democratic primary

without making at least some inroads with black voters. No right. Which is going to make me some black voters are only That is really what twenty five of the electorate. So yes, but she can't do that without you can't lose whites without degrees and black voters yeah, which is what she's doing now. So I think it's both fair. But you know I think, you're right Perry that, like numerically sure she could put together a coalition that gets her above fifty percent. You know come being very liberal white voters, educate college educated white voters with let's say some non college white voters. Let's say some hispanic voters black voters are such an important part of the constituency, though, that I you know how I do think as I

earlier one advantage. One has over over the burning campaign is, I think she will be more acceptable to the party establishment. Will the party establishment be okay with a Canon who hasn't shown any you'll with black voters. You know one reason: Hillary Clinton lost in twenty. Sixteen was black. Turnout was down I don't know the answer to that side. Miss curious, like you know how much will officials demand? hey. If you want to be our nominee, you got to show an ability to win non white voters generally and black voters in particular one problem with the whole electability conversation that I've found to be challenging is I don't think when I talked to voters, I don't think, were they know we're talking about it like in the scenario in which war and has a thirty percent chance, but by me, as a fifty percent chance is different from by

has fifty three and Warren has fifty nine and it's different than Warren. Has seventy five and bite me has eighty three and part of his sessions are are harmed by the fact that we don't have sort of a bass line so some peace. So if you ask me, I think it's more the fifties for both you know the fifties or all of them, but right now at least, but I think a lot of voters are not sure if it's like thirty or seventy- and I think that's why it's a little hard to talk about is the choice between a slight, yes, for because Warren is more, let me see the woman she's, obviously less electable than buying this, not very controversial, so I mean the question is like how much less elect when I think people are really struggle with the question. Is we don't really Good answer to it. Do you mean and you're talking about in head to head against Trump like people are conceptualizing it as bite with seventy percent chance to win against Trump and Warren would have a thirty when really probably differences in electability are much more minute. That's an interesting

yeah. Well, I don't know I'm not saying that. I'm just saying people are having different, whether your assumption is it's. Seventy for one person, eighty to the other or three thousand and forty or Warren will lose invited? Will win, obviously shakes the primary much different than I think it's a private people that are more left for Canada is more risky. What they don't know is how much more risky right. The thing is at this point even asked us to come up with some kind of like data answer to this. You can had to have This point isn't very useful, so we literally couldn't tell you and not only that, but you know I think it's fair to say. We know something about how the layperson thinks about probabilities. And my an, but You know you're talking and I'm like, but they don't think about probabilities in in fine detail, a man in like fifty five percent. First, fifty one per

so my my supposition from talking to people, but also just from like experiencing how people think about probabilities, is that in their head? It probably is oh, even if it's not articulated this way biting has an eighty percent chance to be Trump Barn has a ten percent chance. Alright! Well, of course, this is a conversation we will continue to have, but let's move on 'cause we have another topic to talk about, which is aftermath of the Mass shootings in Dayton, EL and and we'll get to that in just a minute. But first today's podcast is brought to you by Ziprecruiter recruiter. Used to be hard, multiple job sites of resumes a confusing review process, but today It can be easy and you only have to go to one place to get it done: Ziprecruiter, DOT, com, five hundred and thirty, eight Criticize your job to over one hundred of the web's leading job boards, but they don't stop there with their powerful matching lg Ziprecruiter scans, thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and invites them to apply to your job.

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a while Congress is still in recess and won't be back until labor day, but two thousand and twenty democratic candidates have continued to talk about the attacks on the trail I want to with you two weeks out. Does it seem El Paso and perhaps maybe dating to, but of course a brings in the issue of white nationalist terrorism as well, but does it seem like those mass shootings were a defining? meant in american politics, I think they were an we can discuss how we define american politics, but I think if you look at how the New York Times and other publications are covering white nationalism, Trump Speeches Box, there's been a lot of stories saying this shooters words in messages were echoed from Trump speeches, and so on that the manifesto he wrote came from outside the Essentia Lee, I'm seeing a lot of stories about people calling in or the local law enforcement arresting people who have put up you know who have written.

White supremacy and there seems like there's a heightened attention in the public and from law enforcement on the idea that white nationalism in shooting city coming. So I do Did the media and maybe institutions outside of government in some ways changing their approach and there since the white Nationals is b, I think the FBI and my guess is going to be due more focused, and so I do think institutions are changing. I think it might be. And I in that way without disley, changing kind of boats in Congress, well, my actually ate. My initial response to that question was going to be no, but I think Perry's right. It's Maybe the answer is something like it did produce some lasting change in terms of how, as Perry said, people and institutions treat and think of white nationalism, but not with guns 'cause on guns, I don't think we've seen as many changes I mean. We've talked about guns before

cast, and it's always in the same frame of like is public opinion on gun control, changing and, I think, generally come to the conclusion that it has sort of steadily changed and more in favor of gun control, and I would guess, pushed back a little bit and say republican governor of Ohio. Obviously one of the shootings was in Dayton, MIKE Dewine called for a version of a red flag law. So it's background checks. Things like that and I think Trump maybe initially wanted to support it. But then perhaps I should today. I think he made some noise about well remember: we already have a lot of background checks. Then it's really about mental health, so he kind of yeah but I guess I would say, with every shooting there does seem to be. I think some nominal change. As far as the idea of

talking about white nationalism and talking about white supremacy, which I actually think are interesting. Those definitions are being refined. Quite a bit talking about right wing terrorists use using the language of this is a white nationalist people in the media, drawing kind of comparisons to well. Some of the, things like San Bernardino, that was sort of an ISIS inspired terrorist attacks. So this in El Paso was a white nationalist inspired terrorist attack that essentially the same kind of thing. We should talk about them in the same way, but I think the whites the idea is, the one you're seeing like Tucker Carlson push back on in this way where he sang supremacy is only the KKK and people who go to meetings and tattoo swastikas on their heads and do that kind of thing? Whereas I think a lot of institutions are

Lee and rightly talking about what supremacy as the idea. Systemic racism exists and that it's promoted in various, cultural and political over hundreds of years, but that's a hard concept for people to get ahold of and that I think has been more difficult. I think the idea of designating white, nationalist terrorists. In the same category as muslim terrorism is an easier job for the media to do the white supremacy. Conversation is much harder and it's tied into slavery and everything that came Latin America. So it's like talking about american history in a radically different way. Yeah, that seems May. I do think the media has with white. Nationalist or white supremacist terror attacks takes up much more of the position as they do

with Al Qaeda terrorism as it existed, or ISIS Terrorism Are you guys saying that in a way the Conception of the threat of white nationalism has changed. It sounds like yes, I think the answer is unequivocally yes, that this is a much. More serious and under well understood threat than it was three weeks ago, and that is a meaningful change in the electorate and institutions, matters. Even if there's no gun control build or white nationalism bill that passes next week, I'm not eating any legislation. I'm just saying that I think that these kinds of culture- changes do matter, and I think something happened the last two weeks, but you think it'll last parry I do, I do think There will be more of a focus on some. Wrote some weird post on our Facebook page, but how they hate Jews, and I think of the more likely that the cops in city will be like. Let me do something

for the Walmart gets shut up? I just think there will be more aggression around these kinds of things in thinking. It's like ISIS in a certain way like Claire said. I think that is it is any permanent. Yes, I do there was a shooting that was supposedly stopped by law enforcement right was similarly motivated, like white nationalism motivated the identified asian of that in american media has probably been slightly slow and by outlets, like Fox NEWS, where, if it's a right wing extremist It k what we're now calling white nationalism is almost always that they talk about the mental on this thing and it then that becomes a whole conversation, and so so MIKE, it's very apropos that you see the Trump was saying this morning. It's all about mental illness, like I do think that that talking point has severely retarded progress of how we talk about that, and that,

to find that in media. In terms of talking about politics government we usually talk about. It looks like the House Democrats when they get back and reason is going to push bills on banning high capacity magazines and some kind of red flag law. So it's like that, you know it's not surprising they're taking those stands but they're going to try to ramp up the issue in terms of the president, pain. What you've seen is the big idea that sort of emerged last two weeks is, I think, Cory. Booker was the first person had this idea of this code, national gun licensing, which is kind of something ideas like getting a gun license to be a port like if a president getting a passport you have to apply. You do have to some interviews at the make sure you were crazy. Essentially, but with women being book order. Now Warren Beto Castro, that's now kind of any stream idea in the party. I don't think buying. Stick it up yet there's a lot of canvas on that idea. So I think this sub shift. This happened and the third one is Beto's campaign. Specifically, if you think of

not the kind of running a basically anti trump campaign. Trump is the problem with America. You know and sanders are. These kind of camping is along the lines of the big business, the wealthy another problem in America. Play. Doh is now moving pretty fully to a kind of an anti racism campaign. Racism is the probably if you seen him, he went to Mississippi to talk about the ice situation there. He he's up these he's in Oklahoma today. The memorial for the Oklahoma City bombing he's been talking. Erase isn't talking about racism. A lot I do think Beto. I don't know it's going to help him win or not, but I do think Beto sort of amped up his kind change his campaign made it about kind of kind of racism. Bluntly and I'll be curious. How the other canvas react to, and it's just starting to watch it I'll, be curious to see what four months of running is kind of a sort of my campaign. Anti racism campaign, looks like yeah anti racism, but also like doing the whole thing or he's like, but I'm willing to talk to. The other side like he was in Arkansas and he went to gun, show and talk to gun owner? You like there is that kind of

The relaunch of his campaign after the El Paso shooting is interesting mean in his sort of re launch speech he kind of addressed some people say I should run for Senate, but I'm here to like fight the higher force, at work in America, I am frankly like skeptical of it still I agree with you. There it'll be interesting to watch, but it's not I mean It is one thousand o'clock, but is he re launching his campaign if he was at eighteen percent in the polls, know right you're, saying that he wasn't working out, and this is another thing that he'll try and the chances are that, given that he already wasn't working out this won't. Workout Perry outlined some of the ways in which Democrats have responded. The mass shootings, both in Congress and on the twenty twenty trail house? Republicans reacted. Clair, you mentioned the governor of

Ohio. Have we seen anything? I know Greg Abbott. Of course, the governor of Texas also launched a domestic terrorism task force. What about trump? What about other Republicans? What is the response been like? You could describe it a bunch of different ways, but I think there has not been much response from the ripple. Active engagement is yeah. Like look Democrats, I think if you look at the long history of guns as an issue in this country, there, it has been changed on the democratic side. Officials are much more willing to come out forcefully for gun control now than they were years ago, let alone. Twenty years ago I mean remember, like John Kerry going duck. Hunting was docks good evening, something a goose or something yeah democratic politicians now- and you see this among the twenty twenty ten It's are very willing to come out forcefully for gun control. Have we seen some republican officials come out in favor of the Red the law or Trump sign that the bump stock thing, I think, the

error of mass shootings. If you can call it that has resulted in republican official being more willing to pay some lip service to gun control, and then to nibble around the edges a little bit policy wise, but but are republicans going to get on assault, weapons ban or harry. Do you think, there's any chance of Republicans in Congress would get on board with a ban on high capacity magazines. Of course, not ourselves, but I do so. What I see is in this happened after the shooting in parkland. Initially Trump and I'll, say I'm open anything. Let's have a big discussion, let's and then I'm too cynical to say this, but it seems like there should have running out the clock in a certain amount. Of course, the first few days is we're prepared to do re election the next week and by the time Miss Mcconnell, very small.

He knew the shooting happened in August and Congress was going to September, so he was able to make comments that there were maybe, if not disingenuous, he knew that he would be off of him by the time Congress back in September. So my guess is Trump will do something in executive branch to sort of make it harder for people who are mentally ill to buy guns. It will pass in Congress because I don't think most Republicans in Congress want to vote for a gun control bill, but I think in the trunk give us some kind of cover. Doesn't all it's back to see all right? Well, I think that's a pretty good explanation of where things stand at this point, so with that, let's wrap it up. Thank you, Claire Thankskilling. Thank you, Michael you're, very welcome and thank you very all thanks, Gail, thanks guys and to reminders before we let everyone go one march we still have merch and I think they do it kind of in periodic orders, and I think the next one expires in three days, so go to fivethirtyeight dot com, slash store.

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