Can we add a disclaimer before the podcast that I am not Galen, I know some a lot of really confused welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast emergency podcast Friday afternoon at Robert Mueller Indictment Edition. According this, at around two p pm eastern and a little over an hour ago, we got the latest development in the special counsel investigation, headed up by Robert Muller latest is an indictment against thirteen russian individuals and three businesses, troll farms, essentially alleging that they worked to interfere with that one sixteen elections, it's a bit of a reminder, All the questions about Trump's behavior, in collusion that the goal the stated Goal-

took over. The Muller investigation is to investigate russian meddling in the twenty sixteen election, and these are the first charges that go right at that. So here to talk about it and discuss about what we learned, we didn't learn the chaos and confusion that was two thousand and sixteen and continues as a user. True, Nate, silver, hello, Nate, Happy Friday. Everyone Happy Newsday. All these on Fridays, politics Clare, Malone, hello, Claire and Politics- editor, Michael Cohen, hello, Micah. Not only does the news always happen on Friday, but people in the office know that I've had. Maybe I've been going to dentist more often than I should, and probably the past four appointment every single time. I've had to cancel because of huge Trump Administration nice, but MIKE is Gums are bleeding all white people. People see. My argument would be that almost any day that you schedule a dentist appointment, there's going to be a huge Trump administration that would cause the politics editor. I have to cancel his appointment, I'm talking I'm talking before

stories about tasks and whatever we have live podcasts there's at least gigantic news. It was the Manafort indictment huh it was today. It was, I think, the travel ban Well, I made it back to the dentist. Well, listen. We have more fascinating things to discuss one more thing. I got my teeth: call processing. This, I think, will say that there is a lot. We don't know from this we're all kind of reading as we go, but Nate. What that is. Actually in this indictment as you've been reading. It jumps out at you. I guess, there's information the scale of the operation I think, was missing before organization. What's it called. It's called like the internet, research internet research agency. Lc KA media Centers LLC,

aliases aka, there's like eight aks, but so they're talking about an operation that has, I think they describe a couple of one hundred people, in which is a budget that was about a million and a quarter per month. You know the head count is: more impressive than the budget. I guess in the sense that I guess people in Russia are pretty cheap to employee, but you know if you have three People are thereabouts kind of working too often in very clumsy ways but kind of infiltrate. Control and see discordant, trust the the election, that's uh scale, then, for example, the previous disclosures about advise on Facebook, which I need to. I think, like only a million dollars total, which is not really need a liver, but you have like three hundred people again, that's a that's a more so

a separation then then, and not necessarily, people would have predicted, but certainly had been confirmed before class. What stood out to me was certainly what what needs heads the scale of the operation. I was sort of looking for the connections to the Trump campaign and basically, what we have in this indictment is that these people from the internet research agency did contact Trump campaign officials, but in this indictment, there's no word here that they ever responded to these. These people are reaching out, certainly activists associate grassroots activists associate with the Trump campaign. Resp add to these false identities created by this agency, and so that's interesting. You know it's just it's. It is it's more of like the nitty gritty and filling in the blanks of watch this looked like, but as far as whether or not you know this book, I'm sure we'll talk about this again and in this podcast. But the collusion thing them is what I

see anything clearly outlined here. That said collusion well. This is a nice reminder. This document that there's some there's two, maybe more than two tracks in the mall investigation. But one is this question of meddling and then there's the question of the ties to the Trump campaign. But is this It feels like it's sort of as a reminder that the goal of Russian interfere. It was your so chaos, it wasn't necessarily, Hillary, not elected or get Trump elected or whatever there's just a lot of it's here that it was just cause chaos confusion make enemy. I think the scale of that is kind of one of the more impressive things here or one of the more of kind of stunning things. Yeah. The indictment says the stated goal was to not only so chaos but distrust and in american institutions and elections, which I think was successful and I think we've seen learn about this, but the eroding trust, I think, is in a really important part of this, and- and you can see kind of how that jibes with maybe

russian goals nationally right, I do think kind of clause. One a of that of that goal is, it seems, pretty clear to help and I heard so so there is some in here that says you know you're hurting Clinton, maybe even a higher goal. You know I don't know if we want to about ranking members like Clinton, chaos and then well as a result of that pro trumpet sheet of this have always sort of been that Putin personally disliked Clinton, and that was unthought twin and thought she would win and was basically trying to? I believe please correct me if I'm wrong that some of this sort of what's contained in this indictment about suppressing minority turn, things like that, just to kind of like Ding, what might be typically democratic, yeah, there's one of the political advertisements was titled Hillary, he doesn't deserve the black vote?

we're trying to do what you're you're holding the indictment in front of us in in front of you. You were the only one of us, the printed out, thirty, seven, a justice, I'm w what I read some of those other some of the these are the ads that were run your better reading stuff, no go head. Okay, I say note to Hillary Clinton. I say no to manipulation, join our hashtag Hillary Clinton for prison, two thousand and sixteen just I'm getting a little note over the transom here from Galen who says in the indictment. They clearly say that they're supporting Sanders and Trump once they get to twenty sixteen and that, prior to twenty sixteen, it seems to be more just sort of it's not clear who they're supporting it. Sort of the disarray yeah after yeah there supporting in there also Anti TED Cruz is an anti Rubio, but they're explicitly pro trump, and it says don't criticize Trump or Bernie, because they are the people that were trying to

they're they're, more destabilizing candidates, not coincidentally here's October 19th, two thousand, and sixteen quote Hillary is Satan anhur crimes and lies- had proved just how evil she is is a Satan is a safe one of many and no copy desk here at russian farmers, dot com, it should be, is Satan is a Satan. That's right! Thank you for that. I think titanic stuff? We want to talk about- that's maybe not in here, but to just ask the sort of broader question first and then we'll go back into the actual how. How well will this change public opinion regarding the russian investigation? And you know the questions around both russian meddling and try hi structure, I don't know it's a little hard to predict how much staying power that is have I mean certainly when I was looking today, was being treated as breaking news on the various works. I interrupted my schedule of watching curling to watch a little bit of scene

Fox NEWS and still be bus? I work in a way. You know we cover sports. I was never site, so it is actually for work, we're starting a curling podcasts next week. Look, I think it adds some tangible substance. Investigation, which had kind of gotten caught up. I mean you know: as you said earlier, Muller Scope is fairly broad includes kind of russian Interference includes collusion and it includes obstruction of justice right. You know, I think, the more kind of will evidence of russian interference. You have Broth. That makes it a more potent soup. The ultimate protein would come from collusion, though I do still think that it's going to be really hard to prove collusion. So I'm going to frame things a little more boldly than Nate this, she is out, the story of Russian interfere to really well

We know the name. Of the advertisements that were using. We know their budget, we know the names of the companies, we know the department's they had so in my mind, this will go a long ways towards cementing the fact and the form of russian interference in twenty sixteen right. The big question, then, is how does the American like disentangle russian interference, verse collusion, verse effect and then breaking down collusion is it on conclusion, which I don't know if that's an oxymoron orwid inclusion here. It's all unwitting right. I think- and I think that question of Kalua and or not will become a very partisan thing so already you've, seen sort of Democrats or, like you know, people who are on the far left will say

Russia was interfering with our elections and that there's, like an immediate jump to, and the Trump campaign was Braniff Ending, with very fitting. The from that there for people in the Trump campaign should be indicted. Well, legally, they're only going able to be indicted if there's proof that they knowingly now, I'm not a lawyer. So but it's like proves that you proof that they basically like broke. The law broke the law and then I think you could like, if you're, Eli. Maybe once this this comes into the blood stream of the political landscape than Republicans. You could see a partisans but were republicans, say, Okay, the Russians are bad guys and they tried to screw with our elections, but listen. The Trump team didn't know what was going on. It's almost like a stupidity. Please right so or or or you know, maybe there's there's going to be no evidence that the Trump campaign officials ever responded to the stuff. I mean this is taking away for second, the Trump tower:

but I think that I got that I'm not part of what I think it is there. It is there any weird way in which this like shifts focus, and potentially provide some sort of you know twisted cover for Trump, because now like well, it was the Russians who are also make sure you have been talking. Not going I've been doing. Research for the segment going through Trump's, tweets and trying to see What extent is he saying that there is no collusion versus. Is he saying that Russia is a phony There was no muddled, it's a it's collusion, but there is, for example, the someone infamous tweet Russia must be laughing up their sleeves watch. Thing as the USA itself, apart over a democrat excuse for using losing the election excuse was in all caps. So that's why I raised my voice, so this kind of ambiguity. I guess it's easier for them to pick a defense strategy and Hey Bob my

reset, I'm sure it's what they'll say. I'm sure they'll start saying Bob Muller now said that there was. It was right. He basically prove that. There's no collusion, of course. Obviously the way people think Muller works is maybe this is the amuse Bouche I'm trying to use many working days? Here's the thing! Here's the thing I earlier on. If my memory serves correctly used to hit the there was no interference note much more often than he has he's kind of cell, which can I know, can I mean it is yeah so because this is important to separate that that that Trump has made statements both about saying I have not colluded with the rush with Russia. But he has also denied that there was any russian meddling. Perhaps that has shifted overtime, but on the 26th of February two thousand and seventeen there's a tweet that a lot of people- flagging now that Nate did not find in his quick research where Trump says Russia Talk is fake.

News put out by the Dems and played up by the media in order to mask the big election defeat, an illegal leaks which seems to be him saying, let's February two thousand and seventeen so MIKE is point, I think, is right, which is as I'm scrolling through these. There is a shift on the thread subtle shift, but from my kind of no interference to no collusion exactly, and so you higher population of the no collusion message later on, but here's what's interesting to Maine. Ok, so most people already think that Russia interfered in the. Sixteen election right, I'm looking at some bull here, an In January, twenty one thousand hundred and sixty eight percent of people thought they tried. Twenty seven percent of people do not think they tried So majority a healthy majority already think they tried Interesting to me is do these details and does this story of interference that is now so flushed out take this interfere

which is really kind of been bubbling in the background of the political conversation and move it to the foreground and is that change the way the that voters process all this? In other words part of what I wonder is even if there's no collusion right. Does the very fact that Russia interfered to help Trump end up having a bigger, a on his standing than it has once the story is false. I think it's, I think, that's a good point. I think that for Americans and for public opinion and for let's say, Democrats who are looking to win Congress back, potentially to impeach Trump, which is sort of like a stated ultimate goal of many Democrats? Then the interference of Russia in the election is like the right public message to But when it comes to the actual legal facts of these things, you are much more likely to impeach Trump on the grounds of obstruction of justice. I think- and I think that, like it's a weird like you

to keep them at next to each other on the road you have to. You have to promote the message of russian interference, while knowing in the background that, like legally eventually, it's probably would probably be like impeachment by obstruction of justice and that's the thing and look if you're a Democrat, listen to send, you want Trump out of office. The process that will get him there that will get him out of office is going to be a political one right, whether it's impeachment twenty 25th amendment it's gonna, involve politics right and so the or that Russian in because we think an obstruction of justice. Finding is much more likely allusion the more that russian interference is an accepted fact in the public's eye and taken seriously by the public, I think the more weight they might put on an obstruction finding. To extend your car metaphor no obstruction in.

Like driving down the road together right obstruction in collusion are the gas this is the oil. You need some oil to write if you're out of If you change the oil in the car stops functioning right actually works. Better department gets gas price in part, because that's like that It's also like kind of Muller's, a sensible entry point into the Seattle right, investigation right, and so I kind of you know if you're, if you want to put like Miller being Super tactical, look, let's diagnosed Miller's. You know like this: is we, like you had to change the oil? You have to make sure that we have like we're moving in some direction and that direction is also tied to the fact that Russia interfered in the well and the other thing you you're hearing from critics of Miller's. Also he too focused on Trump he's looking into these ties he supposed to be looking into Russia, and so this is a reminder that he is doing that as well. There's a lot we could talk about. I want to sort of frame two things, and then we have to wrap up getting back to what

in here and this description of the sort of chaos that was sold in the russian interference in the efforts, mostly on social media MIKE. It is there's nothing in here that gets to the fact that these efforts had you know it's a it's a compelling kind of yeah. Description. How important of a puzzle piece is that to sort of try to understand the effect? I don't know whether it's mother's role or not, and then how do? even go about measuring so This is a really interesting question. I was sort of surprised actually a clear and I were watching the deputy AG give a press conference at the first question from the press was about the effect and the guys line. All along has been it's not a job. It's not our job. To judge, I think they're right now. I think that I think it's right to how important is it I don't really know. The thing is, is like it's an impossible, and to answer, I've actually tried to get Nate to try to tackle this question several times, but I think Nate has resisted because Nate it's basically

because this information and these activities were happy. Over very long time span. You sort of can't disentangle all right yeah, because it's like the kind of definition of drip drip drip, and you know I mean again, if the scope is larger, so by the way, one reason why I say that is because one can point toward other things easier to measure- and we know, did matter ie the they letter, for example. But you know, if you have this kind of constant here. We have three hundred people who are working to kind of throw the media narrative in a certain direction, and the media narrative about Clinton kind of did go in that direction. Lots of voters thought for lots of reasons that she was basically a crook and crooked You know lots of Bernie supporters thought that to certainly the most peaked stage of the primary process as well, and so, at the very least like it's the same direction as the problems that undermined Clintons campaign I mean people forget,

that, like the reason why Donald Trump became president is because Hillary Clinton was really unpopular, right, Donald Trump, really a popular electoral college, helping him had news events. Obviously the the coming letter, but Hillary Clinton was Liam profoundly unpopular and people kind of take that for granted a little bit like it's obvious that, like she's, a bad politician in like did all these speeches, which were stupid. Way you know had her email server stupid by the way right didn't go to Wisconsin, but like people, I think, take that a little bit too much for granted and don't examine 'cause. If Hillary Clinton has like a forty five percent favorability rating instead of forty one? She wins the election by quite a big margin. Actually, you know so did this kind of contribute to an environment where there was none, an alignment of things that voters were hearing frankly from the media, about Clinton and from her republican opponents and at certain stages. Of the primary press from a democratic opponents to and when that message you here so consistently- and this is like adding fuel-

That then that's it's interesting. I wonder Sanders is going to have a response to. This can be very interesting because this sort of specifically says that these russian trolls, where you know yeah, advocating for him in some ways- they're not attacking and Whenever we want to, however, we want to meet in the other thing is the election was so close up like it's probably safe. To say this. The russian campaign swung the election right all right, but I you know, I think that certainly Try to sign, assign this piece and then you kind of want to have your head around recommendation. You want not safe to say it right, it's not yeah, but it's yeah. You know I'm a Satanist and that's where we like that, like a ground, we like the fine between what Johnson, by eight tenths of a point which is tipping point state right. You know the on average. Maybe the magnitude of this is like if you're like, have a probability distribution point maybe no, maybe more than that right, I'm saying, but it said why distribution, I can imagine cases where this was Totale just

in bucket almost no effect, I can imagine cases where it was quite profound It is interesting that, like some of them substantive allegation. In this indictment is about efforts to suppress the african american vote using Facebook, ads and stuff No, I can't imagine a study around that question right. Maybe you have some way to determine how much different groups of voters were served. Certain adds an was black turn out, especially low, in swing, states or in precincts are in counties where there are more of these ads serve like that's a good thesis idea for some aspiring Phd student Pitch Natan pitch my cat return to your original question. I think, because it's so hard to measure and because summer, so close that a million things could have swung it. I think it sort of lowers the stakes of what effect it had one last thing: I'd love to get your thoughts on, and then I think we will continue. Obviously to talk this on Monday and beyond, but looking forward to

It's falls election clear. There were hearings last week where, our intelligence agencies all said that there is evidence that they are convinced that Russia plans to interfere in the twenty eighteen elections. Does this change The pressure on that the Trump administration is not kind of ordered. Any efforts to prevent that. Do you think that's going to be the story line for the fall. It's state effort, so states would have to take measures to protect their voting procedures. Sure I think it's going to be a thing will see how much I guess action is actually put behind it, but I think it's definitely a percolating concerns. And I mean from a sort of public. Is the public in our sort of rally you do as they went to the public rallying around this sort of century view? We have to get our act together. If I mean Election Administration has long been a hot button issue with the voting public side. Imagine rallies and protests yeah could be, but I think you're going to see. I feel like it's going to be stories in the local news about. Are russian trolls

nine to sway, yes go board election or something that, like I said, I'm sure that will be coming in. What are the thing I mean it does make it hard for Trump. To dismiss the investigation out of hand right now, there's something tangible- and this is an important even if I had nothing to do with Trump and there's no claim that Trump knowingly participated in this indictment. Right. You know this rises to the level of significantly a newsworthy event and kind of justifies Mullers investigation and also indicates that, like the department justice is not screwing around right, I'm not sure something that Trump wanted, and so you know, if he later on, were to go back to him and we tried fire, Muller, Rosen Rosenstein, then that would be problematic. No what I said before it's sort of my main takeaway is, as Jody earlier. They dictation was started in large part to look into russian meddling, so the firmer that is established. It's like you know what

We already got the gas or oil, but for now I think we need another letter, the punching things that that are heavy at the bottom, and so they puff back. You know the for the that the more established that foundation is the the the harder it will be for Trump and his and his supporters to carry around versions in color on mother or obstruction or any other. Any other thing that comes with the investigation. He's got pipe it up just had a clear one thing you just mentioned just made me think that I mean. Obviously our discourse is going. Continue to get more and more annoying, but I think we're going to see more and more just like dismissing people's bots and

Kohl's online, like if someone says something that you disagree with, it would be like oh you're, a bot, but I mean that sounds like a very bot questions. But can you imagine how annoying it's going to be over the next few months? We now listen with my whole state news. Bot thing is just going to get worse and worse, and this was fun an interesting and illuminating and we will continue to have these conversations gotta finish reading and we know what paper sounds like Nate Silver. Thank you very much. Thank you. Not like cancer clip loan thanks thanks thanks Kelly and Michael coming. Thanks to you thanks is Jodia began our producers, Galen Droop and Toni Chau- is in the control room thanks to the two of them for scrambling on this emergency podcasts. Our next show is, on Tuesday Monday's a holiday I will be out, but this crew will be here to continue to discuss this and lots more thanks

and for listening and will see you soon