Does this only error, there's a shot, correct Chris will fit in there This could be a late night, your time, eight hours. This will live in limbo. Welcome to the five thirty eight politics, podcast emergency shut down its decision. We are going to on the shorter side, an listeners I'm just going to tell you I'm going to lay our cards on the table. We're recording this on Friday afternoon. I predict hold on me. Let me explain the logistics here. You are hearing this. It means that there was a shutdown but wait show it twist- and I predict yes it's three hundred and twenty four pm, I predict with one hundred percent certainty that there will be a government shut today Friday after and the only reason people would be even be hearing those words as if there is ever a hundred percent certain on anything it's remarkable make up, but look, we obviously don't know the particular to.

In terms of a shutdown, but we wanted to record this because, mostly you know if there is a shutdown- and there is because you're listening to this- I'm sorry confuse myself, we mostly wanted to add some of the context that we feel like is important to have this weekend and then on Monday show when we do our Powershell, we will talk about sort of the particulars and see where we stand, but here gathered in emergency. Podcast mode is editor in Chief Nate Silver, whose voice you heard hey again my voice once again, Clare Malone, who's voice. You are about to hear Please don't embarrass me in front of my friends practically alone and hey everybody What's going on, I see on this lovely lovely, I guess Friday, but really Saturday love alone and but Harry talked to us about previous shutdowns and they have tended to play out. I guess let's ask question, you know. How does it play out in terms of who gets blue

and does it actually have a legit political impact? Well, there's actually pricing, the limited shut down polling prior to the last two shutdowns, are left to shut down periods right, so that was the two thousand thirteen shut down when a bomb was president, and that was also to shut downs during the nineteen. Ninety five to ninety nine six period, one in November and then one that spanned December an into January, one thousand nine hundred and ninety six and the appalling does suggest, is that in both of those cases, one side was actually blamed for the shutdown and in both of those cases it was congressional Republicans, not the democratic President Bill Clinton in nineteen. Ninety five. Ninety six and Barack Obama

two thousand and thirteen congressional Republicans were to blame. They did lose some ground on the generic congressional ballot about five percentage points in both cases, but the president also saw dips in their approval ratings in both cases, However- and this is the big, however, to this entire situation, in both cases, the game for Democrats made on the generic congressional ballot went away. They went away after a short of time, so, for instance, if you look at the real clear politics average, the last shutdown occurred in October. Two thousand and thirteen by Nova two thousand and fourteen Republicans took their first lead on the generic congressional ballot that the entire year they they never held one until November, two thousand and fourteen that was just a month after the government shutdown, and we saw a very similar situation unfolding in the nine thousand five hundred and ninety six shutdowns and in both shutdowns, the president's approval ratings did recover eventually, after the shutdowns long before

Elections actually took place that followed them meet. On Monday, you kind of downplayed what the political implications of a shut down Harry just said: you know putting aside that dissipates pretty quickly. If there was an incident that has an on average five point hit on the congressional generic ballot, that seems like a pretty big deal right now. Really not if it doesn't last dude, but there were any other event if there are any other event that came along, and we saw five point shift in that in the generic ballot, we would we're talking about cover. It is news I mean this reminds me of like the tedious news cycles and he's like. Oh well, you know it's so awful now. The reporter or someone covering politics in twenty eighteen. I would take some crazy trump tweets over a God dam shut down, news cycle, you know I would enjoy the tweets actually, but like now, look if it

Tates an we don't have any elections, maybe there's a special election Pennsylvania. Alright, that's a while away. You know, then the stakes are kind of meaningless. The only reason why care about the generic right now the measure of it's a very predictive measure right. The generic ballot is not like approval rating. It's like it's like saying, who's going to win in Nova. Two thousand and eighteen we only care about because November, two thousand and eighteen, and if you get like a misleading reading on the generic ballot, because there's some predictably temporary effect, I mean you'll, see it's like after conventions where bleep conventions temporarily move the numbers toward whoever just tell the convention by three four five six points or whatever it is conventions are another thing that you know a good chance to visit. Wonderful. Another reason why this like disruptive new, Michaels better man better than the old action news cycle guys know, but like I think the only way it really matters Tord November is, if there's a problem

shut down or if otherwise economies impact. I mean it matter if it were happening in October of this you matter happening Tober. This is like one of I mean we recently I've started to think about american politics. As like a reality, show that the rest of the world is watching and like every week. You need something to happen right and like the best thing that happens in the season on a reality show. Is they go on like a trip to Puerto Rico and I'll get in a fight which is like your October surprise right, and this is basically, this is just like wine, throwing it someone's birthday This is like this is kind of a minor two episodes from now they'll be a make up session yeah absolutely that, like a couple of them, will be like school, you got to hide a couple next to it. You know you lash backs and like some of like some of the people who are feuding, a k like the potential twenty twenty presidential can't might be like John engine was not on my team during the

and brought time. So we don't know, obviously the particulars of how this exactly went down 'cause. We were recorded after two that very point about the sort of battle lines and the different factions and so forth does. Is there some impact there or something least, to kind of read about how people are shaking out within the river Party or within the Democratic Party. Well, I mean, I think the demo Party is the more interesting one in here, because it's kind of like their move. They are the impetus for the actual decision to say, like we're, gonna hold back our votes. I think I said this on last monies, pod and and I've been proven sort of correct, which is that I Democrats are taking a more they're leaning to what the base kind of want them to do, which is to to hold the shut down to make this doctor thing a big deal and in some ways it it makes the most sense, because if you look at was at the Washington Post poll that came out today, Hary where there can said that they would not blame the Democrats by a margin.

Thing was like twenty eight was forty eight to twenty eight. I believe right so so in that case, forty to twenty eight was the was a poll. What so the ABC News, Washington Post poll that came out today that was taken obviously before the shutdown took place, show that Mmhm nearly a majority. Forty eight percent of Americans said that the blame, if the government were to shut down like more with congressional republicans right in which If you're a Democrat and you're like Nepal is probably made you even better but your decision, it's kind of a win win. You get your base to like you and no one. Going to blame you for it. The one question that I have is, I think, that voters, this is my guess. I don't have any data to back this up, which is always a dangerous thing, but Republicans control the house that control the Senate. They control the presidency. So in the voters minds of the government shutdown, then it's the Republicans fault, but it should be point.

Now, as Republicans will be trying to do in the upcoming days that they could not pass a continuing resolution with out the support of Democrats just need sixty votes and they're only fifty one Senate Republic, the branding on the shut down there I mean besides, you know like what are they trying to make it Schumer shut down computer shut down? There is obviously the branding iron, but to that point pass and we don't have a big sample size of previous shutdowns. But in the past the blamed for shut down as tended to land with the part it's seen as being opportunistic about that moment sort of using it as a moment of political leverage, and I think it's a fair, I went to say, despite the fact that you can point to the fact that you know doctor maybe should have taken care of been taken. Care of, obviously is yet yet yet yet are the Democrats are generally the party that is kind of doing that seizing on this moment of political leverage and saying we're going to hold up this even resolution, because

I think the immigration I think shows the share out in that way. I think you're overestimating um under meaning how much the average American has better things to do than follow this debate no seriously, but they're going to that in some way. Right. So that's my question. One of the one liners first this year is taking place kings are in charge of everything. Right and Republicans are the ones that are procedurally more likely to cause conflicts, and so the basic heuristics are going to first be to blame Republicans now the difference might be that the media be kind of clued into the fact that, In some ways are exploiting that simple heuristic, and so you might have a lot of media types kind of in this case. Actually correctly. Blaming both sides and that might penetrate through a little bit people are going to like soap with with zero for may shun uh the government shutdown people blame Republicans

the little bit of information 'cause again. This is that interesting, a story unless you are going to a national park or are on a federal worker who would be not furloughed but would be you know many classified or because I think that is a percent actually would not be going to work or not get a paycheck either for that matter. You know if you're, not I'm one of those two groups, then you're probably going to act like kind of pay passing attention to this and whether it's framed as this is a GOP's fault or its Democrats fault or a mix of both probably a mix of both then, and that's what here. So I think I might like default to like people's partisan baselines kind of end of it the faults of people's partisan bass lines. Then you know that's good NEWS for Democrats, at least in terms of the fact that right now, the you know, Democrats are doing quite well in the generic congressional ballot is very tame. Yeah. It's

this is exactly cut. I just want one one other thing that you know how this could be different. You know just playing the devil's advocate card here is government dissatisfaction is really high right now it's listed as the most important problem, a Gallup and gallops website right now, and that is something that potentially is different. You know this isn't a case with the economy is going poorly economy is doing well. So maybe this will be somewhat that I think the correct baseline with everything that we know with the polling. That's going on in the error that sent. For goodness sake, this Trump White House makes news every single day. If, in the average

hey, shut down these things that have a long term effect. We know that what yeah this is that if the shutdown lasts for a month a month and two days after which we be talking about Trump, did X Y Z right, I think if this were a more drastic shut down like if there was sort of an immediate feel for a lot of people, maybe that would have some effect, but it's kind of like Yeah. Maybe that's a good note. I mean the economy. Thing is not trivial. What economies most the economic impact of a economists think the economic impact of depends on how long it goes for depends. The pentatonix we pretty minor it's something like you lose zero point five percent of quarterly gdp for each week, which is not a lot when it's the first quarter of the year just look at it in the second half of the mid term decision with that said, one can argue that the he is a little bit frothy right now. The stock market has increased an awful lot. Consumers are very optimistic if consumers start

leave that he is a sign that things are a little bit of disarray: consumer spending stops. You know, frankly, when there's a big run up in the market and sometimes The minor pieces of news can be exaggerated by the market. Trump, I think, maybe has benefited from economic optimism. I mean it's not huge, but Scott's approval up from thirty seven to thirty nine one slash two for something you know so that kind of warm feeling about at least the economy is doing well if they were some disruption. I'm I to look I'm grasping at straws here and I'm basically, like short short this, the smattering in part, because Republicans already so unpopular if they were pitching a perfect game, and things are going really well on. They were running on a message. Of like we're, bringing order back to the free, then it might be more damaging to the brand right. But you know give all the swing. Voters who are deciding between Democrats and Republicans are probably, early voting,

like right now or at least not voting Republican. I think the things that would really harm them further would be something like a decline in the economy. Frank Cooper. Voters might become more upset, but already down eight or nine or ten or well depending on which day you look at our generic ballot average, then then you can be pretty and popular on a particular issue and have it not hurt you learn this many times where many many issues most countries against Trump, because he's so popular the approval rating doesn't get any worse. Ok, let's leave it there. But because we we wanna on leave ourselves a little something to talk about on Monday, which is, I think we will talk about how to the sort of political battle lines and the sort of framing this are shaking out and obviously some of the policy implications. If there's a shut down doc, I still out there, you know we'll people's lives. Are. You know going to be affected by that, and so they to discuss that area we die once you got it exactly right. The electoral implications of this may not be great, but the impact on certain peoples lives could be, and we will see

not all shakes out next time. We gather at this table, which won't be that long from now on Monday. So. The one other thing I want to point out is that I went back and listened to Monday Show and Nate you did on that show say if there is a shutdown, we're going to have quote it's and brews office. I see no pizza, I don't know beer, we will have to Ambrose next Friday. Ok, because there is a shut down in this, branch of reality? So you know yeah. If you see a five hundred and thirty eight or on the street next Friday and his podcast, but he is probably had lots of pizza and Beer Thank you, Nate Silver,

Thank you. Thank you, Claire Malone. I see you on Monday and thank you Harry Anthony Good Shabbat everybody. My name is Jody. I began a producer scale, Andrew Ryan, and tell Antonio Tower in the control room thanks again for listening and will see you soon.