He had made him to define three candidates bypassed and even to wreak. New economic data last week showed the largest ever quarterly contraction of the american economy in the second quarter. The economy shrunk by an annual Ized thirty three percent. Now we ve all heard the wisdom that when it comes to elections, quote it's the economy stupid and there are forecast models that try to

direct elections based largely poor solely on the economy, but in an environment like the one word in how much concurrent GDP data really tell us also, as we discussed last week with congressmen, will heard, President Trump has suggested delaying the election because of the pandemic. While he can't make that decision. It furthers the theme of the president trying to cast doubt on the results of the election. For months, he's basely talked about massive fraud related to male voting and said that this will be quote the most corrupt election ever so. What are the consequences of the president's behaviour and how inclined are Americans to believe him? He related Gus our editor in chief neat silver Hany has gone ahead. Galen how's it going with you I'm doing while has our model coming along. I mean it's pretty much done right so I have the knowledge of what it says. I'm telling you later

HU, the suspense also with us is singer politics, writer, Perry, Big Junior, hey Perry, good to see you you too, and politics editor, Sarah Frost and send hey. Sarah hating and Clare is out today. Let's talk about, the economy and in doing so what's ask a variation of our favorite question, which is good use of modelling or bad use of modelling. So there's a segment of the election forecasting world that puts most of its emphasis on the so called fundamentals, which is to say the economy and other fundamental metrics of America.

Life, as opposed to the poles. Those models got some attention last cycle for predicting a close election between Clinton and Trump, and so with this new economic data that we have. Let's talk about how much the economy alone can tell us who well been so neat. I know that you have gripes about this type of modelling, but I just want to ask you up front. You plugged negative thirty three percent annual GDP growth into a fundamentals model? What would it tell you about how this follows election would turn out. Well, here is the problem depends on which Molly you're talking about. If you use the outer onwards time for change model, I think it is right What is the second quarter? Gdp? Not just a number. We got the priorities of the term for incumbency? It predicts Trump to lose the popular vote by around thirty five points. And because the models very competent, it

as the range gonna be almost brochures and green, like forty in thirty four right, there's no chance that he'll only lose popular by ten points. For example, literally impossible according to smile you know when you have a model that us like that, it's a sign the models, barely design, but let's take another differ, while some models, for example, used third quarter GDP, so foul GDP, though, because the election that expected rebounded, maybe b plus seventy plus eight percent, that the Trump big win rights are models used disposable income, because cares bill actually, Americans for the time being have more money in their pocket Sophie use core disposable income. You predict a Trump landslide victory support. The problem, is it there are a lot of ways to measure the economy, we don't have a very large, simple, a previous elections, and so the models vial disagree with one another about what they actually predict now

but who make those models will go in and change those models which kind of getting the question of light is even pretending to be objective science. This point or is this kind of reflecting well subjective, priors right, but these models are basically crap out We are basically crowd fared eventually that your judgment is bad use of modelling. But can I ask before we move on to talk about the economy? More broadly from the perspective of people who back this kind of modelling? Why do it what's the point in focusing more on the fundamentals: an actual election Poland, because they want to skin straw into gold. They want to pretend like from members. I will not from your three hundred because they bored and we study american elections and you like to be empirical right and the fact that we only have like twelve elections with reliable polling data, Sixteen elections with reliable economic data just keep feeling what progression specifications are you find them? What you think is

twice it. I mean it's like that: science, I'm not being empathetic here, because but I've been really against these models, for years and years and is actually a moment for me where, like back- and eleven and twenty two others law debate about the economy is gonna mediocre. What's that mean for President Obama's reelection channels? Mitt Romney rights, just don't like months and months looking at these things and- it was a real eye opening moment for me that how sadly, these models that, based on past data, claim to being credit precise and predictive how they completely fail. The many is when applied to new data, wasn't known to the model or at the time, and in fact these those literally did worse real data your unknown elections and actual prediction, and if you had just predicted fifty fifty so There is a term called overfishing, which means that when you have a lot different ways to look at past data, you can look at a hundred different hypotheses right and you kind of pick whichever

is about these? Does the best you're gonna kind of wine, the model that, by chance alone happened to work on ass stated that won't actually apply very well going for when he hacking is related term. I'm trying to get not to technical lobbying that from what like it literally literally is bad. Science It literally is bad science and the performed a record fortnight. Performative sees me I'm getting a little bit to welfare right. The performance reckonings models on Data is not very good now, I think there are better ways, design economic models but like the notion of You can somehow came point habit. Feel about this economy in a pandemic and therefore be confident about the result based on economy alone, I mean it doesn't really add up in part because, like spewing out all my arguments here, down which I should you know,

you gonna save a lot. Let the other paneless way- and I want to see a going back at this point, but yeah are Perry and Sir when it comes to the as I mentioned nineties, wisdom of presidential politics and that it's all about the economy. This is extrapolating from this model in question. To what extent should we buy into that? How much does the economy actually sway who wins the auction. One thing that stood out to me is in recent elections. Like so many other things. The economy is increasingly polarized political science now showing things like consumer sentiment, which used to mean that people were happy with the economy and that that was a good indicator for president's no longer seems to have as much upon the fact and something that Michael Tesla wrote for us recently on the site that really stood out to me was You know here we are in the middle of a recession, worse than what we saw in two thousand and eight. And yet, if you look, pause in two thousand and eight both Democrats. Anna

Applicants said the economy was bad and in fact, Mccain. He got widely attacked for saying you know the fundamentals of our economy. Our strong people, like no we're in a recession whereas now, if you look at the polls- and this was tourism late june- the gap between them- the crowds and republicans on how the economy is doing is the widest its ever been Republicans It's good Democrats think it's bad. We saw the sender Obama. It's gotten worse. Under tromp techniques question to some extent, if your partisan lenses that strong already I dont know how much the economy really does impact you at the ballot Box connect astrogation. The name I am curious like when you know reclined. Adviser in ninety two said: is the economy stupid? Were they even then was the economy more effective in the Eightys and Ninetys. Actually generally dont know what I, the objective is like the precision with

which these models claim to be other predict. Elections right, if you have to choose between I thought this number one, the economy lately determines elections right. You never have to look at Nepal and about it we're, too, that the economy has nothing to do with it, number two is actually closer to correct, statistically if you model is properly you know in our estimate, economy, explains from our model, which we think is avoids. Most of these problems do not all we think the kind of things about Eighty per cent of variants, unencumbered performance. So thirty, four is a lot right if you can explain thirty percent how will you come? Their party does based economy that can tell you quite a bit. But it's also a long way from a hundred per cent and at least plenty of room for candidates campaigns, and and, worse and pandemics, and things like that to matter now. This requesting a of like it period has economy the world to be more or less. Predictive has been true. That, like a kind of

the seventies eighties nineties, economy was fairly predicted. These models, one of the reasons why I am sceptical these models, because it doesnt turn out to have predictive if you extending analysis backward and when you have really small sample size right then you would want to expand it missing a cake. What make. What kind of look like in nineteen o four and see? How can a party did then right? We try to extend our now spected eighteen. Which more than double sample size, but the other other question is like: can a normal economic indicator B, in a pandemic like this one, like you mentioned Galen, we have the word. Quarterly GDP number in history, if you look at, how does feel about present trumps, hamley and economy in poles. The actual use, even money. Look Its average of its economic job rating say forty eight point: six percent approve forty eight point: zero percent, This approach is actually technically impositive territory on the economy.

Suggests that somehow that GDP bigger might not kind of capture how the public thinks about the economy. In the middle of a recession One reason: why is that the government has until now and putting a lot of money: people's pockets. We talk about disposable income. You know there hasn't been inflation, which happens in some economic crises, be stopped market has been pretty steady prices is actually a little bit unclear right, but like Peter I think also understand that, like ok, front, may have done everything wrong in the pandemic. It's very important for his response of covert and authorities and why is it able to lose out? I dont want necessarily blame the economy on travel take your money when the economy on covered. So it's like the fact that you have to the fact that if you take some of these formulas like the IRAN what's formula and apply it to the real data, it comes up with ridiculous answers, I approve at how ridiculous

exercise is in the first place, so automobile from those fundamentals based forecasts models, because you have disposed of them thoroughly. But you know when it comes to how Americans are thinking about whether they want to give Trump a second term or not is the economy? The key does the pandemic trump. Absolutely everything I mean. We ve already seen that voters have said they would rather use restrictions to help temp down on the spread of covert, even if it will damage the economy. So is this an election where So is this an election where the economy is just going to take a back seat period? miracle in national elections. Studies like they ask voters each election. What the most important issue is facing, and

economies since await has led on that matter, green it. It was more important, more voters in two thousand and eight than it wasn't twenty sixteen and what we ve seen in polls that are being conducted now with the Annie. S, of course, is only in the lead up to the election rate that more Americans are saying. I am concerned about health care, which is related to the pandemic. If they don't ask about the corona. Specifically or a few ex ago- is the protest right that was top of mind forever voter. So I do think that the economy could be as neat was saying earlier to rightly, people are blaming tromp for the economy there blaming covered. So at the ballot box, they could be carrying more about the corona virus than the actual economy, even other kind of linked together. I would say the economy matters in two ways in the context of this election. The first is that for most of his last three years has been saying: look whatever you

give me. The economy is booming. Under my leadership, republican voters, voters, city, that's what they're going from one republican legislators and members of Congress that's why I think when you look like tromp cared for Six percent of the vote into that sixteen is pulling in like forty forty to someone like that, You think some of their drop off is probably explained by the fact that the one thing the people said I am voting for trial because of the one thing tromp has been effective. That I would argue, is now been undermine. Zoning does one fact: another gets a big programme. The second is big media coverage matters and helped people perceive trump in politics more broadly, and I do think Trump would be hovered differently, and I would say more positively if unemployment was a four percent as opposed to being in double digit. So I think the media coverage of top has been very critically. These last few months they have their voices heard, endemic. Democrat relates to the protests, but also as to the fact that the one thing the aromatic cares about the economy. The trunk was good.

He no longer loose good at, and I think trumps reaction? There has been a third issue, which is that I actually think too. In some ways has over interpreted twenty sixteen. He seems a bit He won the election because he sort of did this. Why lady politics stuff? And I, Peggy wonders in importance. He's a republic in Iraq is both Republicans and I sort of think he is decided the economy, bad loony lean into the identity stuff, and I think if he decided the economy's bad limit picks the pandemic. Let me say I don't want to raise taxes. I dont there. The he's shifted from economy to the sort of re stuff, and I think you gopher option see I think that's right and deprives tramp of the most traditional strategy for an income, and would you call them in America, strategy right or even kind modified Trump version of it were

you would sometimes hear from voters yeah, we think don't like the tweeting in the president's may be lower. I says right, but the economy is good but apply right, and I can't say that now you can't like maybe they kind of going rate for for a few people write it like a liquor, delivery. Business or something right, but for most people You cannot be happy with becoming to say the country I'm just saying. Oh, that like covered is predicated too this right and there is no kind of consideration that economy independent of covered I guess into the extent there is it seemed like my positive for tropical people forgiving. Stone they? Whatever, through years of growth we had before covered before women We ve seen a little bit of uptake in terms of trumps approval recently and even in some battleground states does it look like he hit bottom a couple weeks ago and things are

going better for him now or is that an over interpretation of a small amount of recent data? I think it's an over interpretation Was this moment a recent data. Things have moved on without said, he was down nine points before eight in half an hour ever right, like a man, that's a big! That's it. Margins and you might expecting to tighten right, I mean you know one way to when we can look at this is just a kind of say: okay. Well, we what our prior should be about, economy right, let's just kind of throw our hands up. And say we assume that it priors it's. Fifty fifty two towards a competitive election in polarized electorate. Right I mean that's, not a crazy approach to take, and then maybe you expect some tightening potentially we're in a technical debate already signed, I was working the debt, but I think you know some pulling averages like worker politics, don't account for house effects and a mix of pulsars. They have concerned artificial swings,

pulling average, hopefully avoids that and shows us that especially look at kind of state poles and not just national balls when the state also been in roughly speaking, is four trumpets, the they have at any point in a campaign and before we close the economy subject. I would like to say Voters are no longer determining who d for a based on economic growth, great the press has very little control over these things is always been a dumb party politics effort is George Bush, didn't hurt the economy and ninety two laws, because it he had no control over, like the president, sits the tax policy so that changes the economy a little bit in this case, the present as head of the pandemic badly DES effect. The economy you be much more logical to both basin, whether you work programme choice are pro like judges and, if you think, big Obama Donald Trump Urge, John Mccain can fix the economy which they have no expertise pressure, yet so in some ways, maybe becoming more, Artists in and

on more. Your preference for president based on the economy is a positive effect of an increasingly partisan political world silver light anyway, let's move on and talk about, the president's attempt to cast doubt on the results of the election, but first these podcast is brought to you by white stream. If you want to save money the summer, why not start by paying less interest on your credit card balances? You can finance with a credit card consolidation loan from white stream. It's an easy way to save hundreds to thousands of dollars and lower your interest rate lights offers, fixed rate credit card consolidation, loans from five point: nine five percent, a pr with ATO pay an excellent credit that, lower than the average credit card interest rate of over nineteen percent, a pr light stream. Words: consumers, who have good credit with great interest rate, and no fees can alone from

five thousand dollars you a hundred thousand dollars, you can even get your money as soon as the day you apply. Listeners conceive even more with an additional interest rate discount and the only way to get that discount is a white stream dot com, slash five, three, eight, that's l! I e g h, T S, T r e, a dot com, slash five, three eight subject: accredit approval rate includes point: five percent: oughta pay discount terms and conditions apply and offers are subject to change without notice visit, light stream, dot com, slash five, three eight for more information. Last week, President trot suggested delaying this falls election quote until people can properly security and safely vote. He doesn't have the power to do that. Congress does and, according to reporting last week, lawmakers of all political straight. Aren't onboard. But his suggestion is part of a theme for years. The president has cast doubt on the results of elections. He claims obviously baseless that millions of

People voted illegally in person in two thousand. Sixteen now he basically says male voting will lead to quote massive fraud. What are the potential consequences for american democracy of President Trump working to deal agenda? as the results of the election I mean is, it appears to me President Shrub says things all the time that are problematic and misleading and outright fall. So eight. The questions he becomes not if true what wrong says does matter, but whether people follow that particularly do stop counting the red. I think the one thing the trunk really is an over is elude appears. The person truck is put in charge of the. U S. Mail system is making some changes. The trunk really isn't it back over is it appears the person What is put in charge of the? U S, mail system, making some changes to it in terms of slowing down mail delivery did might affect the she than the other.

It depends on your voters. Spickly republican voters come to believe that all male in votes are rising over whatever reason decree the issue of like if a state has slow counting is the republic at Bay. In this they pressuring them to stop counting so that matter something is important, not isolate, Trump says all kinds of misleading, crazy things all the time. The key question is: do voters believe those things and do republic in eleven? If it shows act on those things sir. What do we know about the extent to which voters believe these things are a prime to believe them a study released earlier this summer by five thirty eight contributor led dark man with the voters study group. Looked at this question of the war on terrorism and where Republicans and Democrats fall on that question, and one thing they found that was particularly striking was both Republicans and Democrats were open to their preferred presidential candidate

checking the legitimacy of the election if they could claim credible evidence of illegal voting or foreign interference and not touch back to a pool from the Washington Post that came out in twenty seven team. That found among Republicans, roughly half believed Trump one, the popular vote, and they would support postponing the twenty twenty election again was twenty. Seventeen- it's been a few years now, but the fact that that voters

they grew came out the summer and echoed that finding I thought was particularly chilling and cuts both ways for both Democrats and Republicans. Is it fair to say, then that this is a significant threat if the President WAR to follow through on August the extension of this, which is doubting the actual results of the election, maybe making some statement as to his wind before the ballots have been counted, ease that a genuine threat? to you no american democracy, or is that alarmist at this point is feels alarmist straight. The tramp this is also familiar territory in the sense of how you opened Edna Wright like he did this and twenty sixteen claiming that people had gone in person and voted a legally and gas recently had poles and granted. This was from twenty nineteen, but showing that you know only four,

percent of Americans were confident in the election again. The majority was not, and in theory that probably will be other new high. This fall by thinking. Back, though, to what Perry was talking about earlier. A lot of this will come down to How do other elected officials respond? How the Republicans handle this? If it continues, to and what we saw so far re. Does that mean Did not stand with the president and his pushed to postpone the election. What are the incentives there in terms of how Republicans respond to this. There is some situations in which Republicans push back pretty forcefully on certain things that president does or says point troops out of Syria is one example. This is another example. So what are the patterns in terms of when his fellow What lawmakers outright rejection I mean Trump has not got into too much support on these it's from other Republicans. I don't think you can certainly

they have not done enough to push back or denounce him. I think state level officials like governors secretaries of state probably feel number one. People generally like to make it easier to vote and they want option to be able to vote by male during a pandemic number two. There's a fine line between pump. Trying to whatever prepare the ground for attacks on democracy and things that will discourage turn out from his own base, which would hurt Republican and down the ballot right. If you kind of alleged that hey this day, Read many people, at all. If you say, hey male ballots are rig, maybe people in our counting, turn on election day, but things come up on election day, so trouble Mozilla, got them much support from other it officials by kind of. Always dangerous says withdrawn: it has makings of a coherent plan.

Plan where you create, which is going to happen, I think now a big, partisan split and who votes by mail and who doesn't in there things that you do added neglect or deliberately to make it harder for me about to be delivered to people and our people to get the male ballots back to their states and or you know you at the very least, clear situation in which, counting is slow. Maybe you have a lean but when I M on election night, because not all male ballots will have been right and then you kind of cast doubt on the outcome The casting doubt on the outcome, I think, may ultimately not lead to winning or a constitutional crisis, or even that It is like DE legitimize, the next and then, if it has Joe Biden, Could trigger lawsuits and stuff like that things are so slow like regime when it isn't from salt, these premises in New York, where still there

a recent undeclared is taken months to count ballots. You can imagine put in a swing. State Arizona was consular. What not, how that might affect things? so there are some areas where it gets messy Your question earlier about, like is a time to panic. Whereas an alarmist right. It's way things were like the more alarmed people are now, then we, the less reason there is to be alarmed here I mean it's almost like covert or something right, the more, you are the less things get out of hand right. Nonetheless, the prisoners to panic their different groups here right now, line voters and be prepared for bigger, diligent about making sure they get their ballots and making sure they postmark? Him said the man right number two: the media it'll be more prepared for the fact that we may not have a neat and tidy election night that we probably won't. Although the election is as much a blow out as Paul. Showed is currently maybe it will be resolved. But odds. Are it's going be a long election weaker, longer and number three kind of

it local officials and Congress. Also right, I dont know what type of leverage? diplomacy? Has authority has a lot of leverage because, like it would be really There were another stimulus package that would probably heard Trump if there should have won a leverage to make sure there is enough funding for county out returns enough funding for the post office. Sometimes, I think Frank Pelosi. Doesn't use leverage in that way is effectively is like Mcconnell Minor, something but people are alert to this, I think, is is less reason to worry, but there is like there is a real plan by which Trump could cause, at the very least real confusion so I would say I am alarmed- and I would say two things first thing is that President of the United States hinting suggesting implying we should change the election date is bad, even if no one else follows it is a bad thing. That's alarming in the sense that no president accurately would do that of either party. So the second part that I think is really problematic is

it looks like our election systems are already not very good pre covered like we had very long lines: blue states, red states, urban areas, relevant Billy urban areas, long lines were too public, counting male imbalance in too slow. Even before this, we have lots of. U will get their meal imbalance rejected as they forgot to sign the third signature requirement and which we should be very clear about. So when on these existing systems happen, red states, he states everywhere and you in theory within the middle pandemic need a president who saying we too electronic media like spend money to improve our entire structure because it's our Dban app a pandemic makes it worse instead the present, who is very much not doing this. You have a situation where I think my real worry is gonna be some state with a number of mail. Male imbalances are rejected or Herndon late is high.

More than those in the margin of victory is one of the candidates, and that is really worrisome and I was going to leave it at Joe Biden when they stay or if Trump won the state. You should more rejected, then there are the margin of victory, is how is this different from I ask this intellectually governors moving quickly too. Bone primary elections earlier in the year? the cases which were seen as the responsible thing to do well constitutionally, the date of the primary elections are not mandated. But now I don't know that it was a good idea for governors to do that and They were too many liberals who we're not even thinking long term. And saying, of course you have to be moved. Writing how dare was got. Some people go out and vote limits. This pandemic where it's like again custody the trap has no authority to do that and theirs. The allocation of these dates for mood. In a way that contravene the constitution.

The precedent, wise yadda. It was a bad precedent and the fact that people can like? Actually, I mean playful commentators don't seem to give one iota of concern about like actually being intellectually consistent, No, I think that was not great there- is there much criticism from the left? I don't know how everybody in the left, that is, that there is criticism on from the people who did say moving the day. Is bad trot. I take advantage of this don't do this. I think there were some crumbs under which there was some Ngos Ohio, particularly when people are like what are you almost constant both? Unlike what are you doing here, I mean I would say if I want to be honest if, on November, first two thousand and sixteen rob me was president and he had said hey, I think, give people the vote on this day. There's some pandemic this dangerous and it might kill lots of people I would have it differently. The doll trouble not get opportunity. We live in a different world. John Mccain Mitt Romney George Bush Rock of Alma Bill Clinton, John Kerry, saying it is

a further somebody who vial democratic norms. All the time, I think, is worth noting. Donald Trump is different and All of you know. People should be more sceptical about things he says in this regard. You brought up three there in some signs referring to past presidents- and I want to dig a little bit more into whether we can rely on history at all as a guide for this moment I know that we have had controversial elections in the past in the United States, probably the most recent one being the two thousand election and the role that the Supreme Court played, but in this particular case how can. We rely on history as a guide for what happens when the legitimacy of election is called into question, and how much is this simply very different from something that we experience the country, before there is precedent, in the sense that you know we had an election during the civil war like one of the

Hallmarks of american democracy rate is like the peaceful succession of president's right in eighteen. Seventy six was hugely contested. One Samuel till then, and whether for be haze and essentially in order for haste to wind reconstruction ends rate in the south. The Greece, too, it is told him had been the Democrats, so we ve had contentious elections. What makes this different? again goes back to Perry, was saying about you could imagine if President Romney was saying or President Clinton. If we have this life reddening pandemic, we should take precautions. That means postponing the election by a month. That would be different messaging rape right, but at the same time his arguing, let's postpone the election. He saying that open school. So there is a lack of consistency. I think it goes back to meet was saying about it. Doesn't it they fall within. The president's will have to make this decision need to have Congress. There would have to be the case

involved in. So it's just the way in which he chooses to go about trying to push something that on one hand, could good instincts, it's a life threatening pandemic doesn't Actually in practice achieve that stated goal. So it is to you know, we're this election in two thousand. There was very contested, I think after in two thousand want isn t there was talk, people believe in the system anymore. They won't trusted Supreme Court. I don't think there is borne out. I think in two thousand four we had a traditional election. George well, why not think people are going around people hated? George Bush, you are Democrats whether they be believed he originally wanted two dozen, for even two dozen. Sixteen. Has been a russian investigation, but I'm not sure that Democrats doubt that more people in Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump, then voted for Hilary Plan, they help Trump is contested issue. I don't think people are questioning the actual results of the election that much so his

Frankly, I think we haven't had at least recently we haven't had real questions about legitimacy in the election results. I guess my worry about this one is, I do think the Partisan slash, cultural divides and the electorate are deeper than ever meanings. Like the White Christian, already versus the people who are not white and Christian is kind of gettin movement westward deeper than ever. I do think two sides really don't want to see the other women. I think the Democrats, like the second term of Donald is the end of american, some somatic Joe Biden implies this. At times a trump is very using great. Very language is well your way of life in the suburbs, so I think it met since the stakes feel really high for people. I think mistakes as election feel higher to people in two thousand, and therefore I think that in the fighting we're like the results be much more divisive,

tens if the results are in any way. Dispute yeah it feels like a lot of these things right, we're like directional either. There is kind of precedent for look and trying to make it harder people about. Generally, there as president for very messy elections from Samuel tell them. Two thousand I guess I feel like Trumpeters cross several lines I hadn't been crossed before I'm not sure, I'm completely confident that- and I would refer who know more about Canada, history contested elections? I know I don't think There has been any sitting president before who said hey the system that got me elected. That system is rigged, you can trust was going to happen in the next election right. I don't think there's been that line cross before I have to think I think, if you decide how serious I think these claims have like making a poster Dysfunctional are right. That would see you're probably crosses a line, but maybe

right. I mean. Obviously we had for some years and years. This country, where, like like people, were dysentery, sized officially been unofficially Eureka. So whenever right in women can vote be born or twenty one couldn't boat, and so I me know some sense. The right to vote has been kind of at the centre of all of its potentially by it feel like this is a normal. That's that's one way to ask it to extend this to its potential logical conclusions, what would happen in a scenario where President Trump rejects the apparent outcome of the election and refuses to concede, even if he has lost I tend to think this is depends a lot on what actually happens. If, if Biden wins, every swing state, Georgia and Texas, the media, Claire's, bite and obviously want this Ricardo starts. Making plans for the next did, I think, did troubled speaking of people be ignoring him and on January, twenty people walk out of here, he'll just it'll always be a bit of a bunch. In other words,

I think this is very dependent upon what the result. It's our authorities. It is down to one state if it's like with comments, if, if is down to like. Did there like a to sixty two sixty electoral, the wise and Trop is about it was consumed by four hundred votes. Could be hard to remove him to be totally honest and I think, there's a problem even that he actually lost, I mean I think people should be honest about who won the election with asking to be more. Challenging The results are more clear. I think that is a useful thing to think about. I totally like here in Kentucky for Moreover, I you know in twenty I t we had a governors raised, were met, Bevin, who was the in public republican governor lost by about five thousand votes? He was kind of hinting at a really care. What am I going to do and when they miss MC condoms, like seems to me Anti Bashir one, you know everybody else should have reacted. Oh this is over you not five minutes unfortunate that it took. This will have to say that I know, but I know you did it once I don't doubt of Trump loss. Clearly he might

doing it again, so I think the republic in reaction to be important, and I think, telling I think the media. You know we work for the american Broadcasting companies so worth noting that the media is fairly unequivocal about, seems, Donald Trump lost years, where things work and I think you'll see polling showing Donald Trump. She led the way to us, and I think public opinion back in business. If Donald Trump says I didn't lose and he lost back there about every republic and will be stand with him forever. I think there are plenty of republican to believe in the rule of law and believe they can. We, twenty twenty and twenty four. Not I'm about this. I think people might react in a the normal way of Donald Trump, loses particularly he's dead. Aid in the polls. I think people are anticipating Donald Trump losing, so I think it's not gonna be out of nowhere, yeah, Stephen caliber Bracy amassing a name right here is a co founder of the Federalist Society, wrote an up trumps claim saying hey. This is Oh you know I used to I trust by alive MRS Way, over the line, but

had a person that light might actually split from tromp in the event that he tried to infirm grounds like say: oh somehow, I wine and justice is and so forth mean there is a process for reply all this out right I mean, ultimately, it goes two thousand representatives in a ghost electoral college right you can live with. Crazy scenarios, where he policy becomes President Bush. The Senate. The Senate has another point of GDP, the house that we will achieve consensus- I do they would pick adjudicators. It really liked your college right then in theory, I genuinely chow twentieth this term is over goes to the line of succession and anti plus you become acting president. So, you know interesting scenarios about our scenarios where whoever the scent confirms, as vice president, will become president. If the house is deadlocked So you know interesting times, but yet what happens? If trip like physically refuses to leave the White House

even though the price has been carried out and he lost constitutionally he's we're president, I think kind of Further you get from like November third, two January twentieth, the more its January twenty. At the more there are clear laws on the books about what happens right, it's more like if you had a close election and trump. With the vote. Counting the net creates or, if he messes, with the perception legitimacy for, for President Elect Biden or whatever But those are, I think, do different grades right, like messing with the actual results. In such a way that there is evidence that, like making a higher people to vote. Well, that's a swing, the margin, some key states and change the outcome or worse two thousand thousand area where stopping counting when they were ballots before Sunday, I counted, and that would change the outcome that the bigger crisis then merely

de legitimize the next president. I mean about still bad right, but if you actually had some evidence that, like shenanigans affected their resolve and that's a bigger problem, or if you have, Instead, like say, some state appoints electors, that don't seem to reflect the popular will of that state right back it to be a pretty big crisis right yeah. It seems like there's plenty of dry tinder here for people who would take advantage of a scenario where there is already both faith in it decisions in the United States, and that brings us to another question which all of you have brought up at some point during this conversation. That's the role that we all play. In this conversation, the media in trying to make a potentially confusing and contentious election last saw what can we do either now or on watch a knight to make sure that we reduce the number of potential problems that come with this tricky

You know one thing that both you know: attorney General, William, bar and tramper saying is male in voting leads to widespread voter fraud. There is no evidence of that, as we said that the one thing that I think we're losing sight of is this could be it action with unprecedented meal and ballots re like Nathaniel wreckage look dad primaries held here during the covert air at nearly every state had an increase from their last previous primary. In the amount of balance that recast remotely. I think we need to telling reader in our audience that this be a messy election, not because there is widespread fraud, but because it, scale that, by which people are being remotely and the types of issues that raises, because I feel like Trump has that conversation, fraud can no longer have it with new answer intelligently, but it is

the thing that I think we need to be doing more for readers to understand that this this could be messy and not because of fraud, I guess I was law, the media- yes, I would say we should think about. This- is like a two month process of the election. We're gonna have post election day. I think Torres, going full of voting early voting, but by mail. So on October is not a trivial issue and that's our that's always been happened. Now now really really to have a different kind of action, as has been November, will be counting not the thirty so you're. Ninety seven person panel, which you you have ninety seven people who excited excited to say what the election means, maybe rain that in it we don't know what the election means. If half the votes have not been counted yet. So I think this notion that we have to have this be election night and we ve all trained ourselves, for, I think, is have to be sort of unwound in a really aggressive way election night is no matter what Donald Trump says

Action night is probably not going to hear a speech from Joe Biden on Election Day or Donald Trump about who will we may have to wait we had to just the eggs. I mean in denying this New York. These New York races have taken a long time. I dont know if we need six weeks of hopeful it'll be suited areas is that I think we need a faster than there, but I just think we have to get the mindset of. Maybe we all know the one lesson until December. Even I think that's a realistic possibility. I'm having trouble think Trump given what to give an election of his head and the popular version and their lot called States right. I agree. The media has a big role here. The smaller point I beg- and this also features in the conversation you know we had as a group is like people, I think, we'd better themselves to look at situation in individual states and what the expectations are far as time you different boats coming in in individual states, united Florida, for example, often when poor clothes they report the first tranche,

I pointed out or mailed an early, then they report election night, and then they report lay returned absentee ballads so that concrete interested patterns right if they actually, two very democratic You might actually have Biden, way ahead, eight o clock and then Trump really catches up and maybe already expired. But then things begin to ship back toward fighting rights are being kind of familiar with these scenarios and how they might play out, because they can potentially sin for signals in multiple directions. To it's not like some random patter, Dr Energy lobby. For each day but like or separated two billion alike, different tranches about when their account we ve never bother way before had this big partisan split, in intention about by mail or not its use has been pretty non partisan, that's possible! That People who say I'm about impressed,

There are probably going to actually do usually voted by mail and state like Arizona, here's, my biologist, easier, said Anne are or who knows but light in Heaven election night need all our forecasts. I think he's gonna be fine. Yeah. I mean we do with discussions very hands on design we're not going to have an election night forecast. Their negotiations about that? If it were totally up to me, then we would tread very lightly on that. I think we can. We might Did you have scenario she can game out. Ok, if Biden wins, does not state, then housing outlook, then, but why without getting into my trouble with my bosses and Airbus's right, like yeah, I'm united the very worst, the station of like minded jumping to conclusions? Might if you try to light all these unknowns, for which we have no real precedent and plug them into like some type of model. Now I do think like if you literally your times and you

We literally are going to do fifteen people to this such night or election month project half time? fr to life soon November. Third, and they're gonna research every new evidence of how they vote will come in and talk to sector is a state and elections, officials and like plan for thirty contingencies. If you wanted to put that happened massive scale into it, then I then that might really valuable but I'll be mostly reporting project and not like a statistical project right? you know, Cisco models work? when you have surpassed press to rely on and with you to the big debate about like how many since our enough with sample size enough right at human apple of zero, then statistics d- you much you're right you to rely on reporting to understand what you anticipated situation there it s a living, I might say, is

news or Jason's tend to cover what the president says is news and often first we is present, says x, you might not be data be like to be like Trump says. Trump says like. If you go to vote in Florida, you will die at covid. Nineteen may not want to like do an alert on that and just have it a transfer with the president's administration. The president's teams have an incentive to create is leading comments, will be incumbent upon the news media Facebook Twitter to be there. Did you learn about making sure he does not sort of alter the electoral process in problematic ways by spreading misinformation, so fratricide. This will be on election like none other. Sorry sorry to all of our listeners who might have been excited for a regular election night by? I guess in exchange you get potentially weeks of election night coverage, so hopefully can live with that. But I think that's it. Does anyone have any thoughts as we wrap up here I mean it

every election Galen. Every election day I say how areas it's crazier, how can things it even crazier next election. And I wish I didn't think that foreigners election month. Here we come, I guess I mean. Fortunately, you can't really take a vacation anyway. So I want to say that I find your vacation for November for you, go anywhere anyway? Maybe By the time we actually know whose president then you'll really go to more than two other countries as American. So you know, look on the bright side are indeed the bright side bloody repaired made. You may make a gallon figure. Perry miniscule ambiguous

things going on in some housekeeping before we go. I wanted to let listeners know that we are not planning to have a second podcast this week, unless, of course, there is emergency news, because Joe Biden announces his VP pig, but we have a lot of busy weeks ahead of us with our forecasts, launch and the conventions and so on. So I'm gonna be off, but you don't. We will be back in case of emergency, otherwise will see you next week. My name is Galen droop Tourney Chow is in the virtual control room ugandan touch by emailing us at podcast, five could eat dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a reading or review in the apple pie, cast store or tell someone about us thanks for lessening animal her