Let's take a second to talk about something businesses, love reaching audiences amazon adds helps brands connect with audiences through their passions. Here are some examples. You can huddled up with sports fans during Thursday night football exclusively on prime video or connect with all the creative communities on twitch and short for streamers when they binge watch their favorite show audiences know what they like, and we touch points or every passion, amazon and knows how to reach them. You ready hello and welcome to the five day. Politics podcast, I'm doing drip made silver, and this is my little talk and in fact this is a model. Tat live from washington dc election day is just

two weeks away and were recording one of our final model talk episodes of this election along with six hundred friends of the pod at six than I in Washington d c It is our first time back in front of a wider audience since january of twenty twenty, and in fact this is it actually, where we were in january of twenty twenty I last live show pre pandemic was here at six than I I wanted to start off by saying a big thank you to everyone who is here tonight being together in person like this is really nice and you, the audience, are what make it, what it is so give yourself

was it a big round of applause and, of course, a special hello to those of you who are joining virtually like my grandmother, my grandma, it's great to have all of you and I as well. So, like I said india is just two weeks away. it's an election that seeing record levels of voter enthusiasm in the polls. It comes after the supreme court's historic, decision to overturn roe wade amid forty, your high inflation and, as some politicians continue to cast doubt on the legitimacy of american elections altogether. So I would, if I got all of it for them. You who aren't familiar model talk is the part of the five between politics pie cast where we talk about the numbers behind the five thirty eight forecast at the time of this recording,

those numbers are as follows: Democrats have a fifty five percent chance of keeping control of the senate and republicans haven't eighty one percent chance of winning the house the Where's raises are currently toss, ups in arizona, nevada, wisconsin and organ, and since it The life shall I'll give you a sense of how this is all going to work. We more or less treat this like a regular podcast cast aping you'll hear things that never make it into the final cut. Maybe some swear it may be a lengthy tangent. I dunno I've got something they would ever do only you here with us tonight will ever know what happened in this room tonight, later on in the shower, we're all going to be joined by some special guests replay around of midterms trivia and then we'll take some questions from The audience are therefore ready. Before we,

to the state of the mare terms here in the EU ass. I do want to answer a really important lesson are tracked question that we received from across the pond brett asked How does the model feel about the head of? Let us that predicted we end up with trust. It seems that vegetable got worse. Worldwide attention for one correct off the cuff prediction The model sits in obscurity in a server room in manhattan, doing all the hard work. Then, if I the model, I would hate that had of letters with the heat of a thousand sons I mean the model is not hated. Anyone so much since Paul the octopus in the world cup. For those of you who are familiar with this head of letters, became famous after the economists publish the following quote.

Lives. Trawls blew up her own government with a package of unfunded tax cuts and energy price guarantees on september. Twenty third take away the ten days of morning after the death of queen Elizabeth, the second and she had seven days and control. That is roughly the shelf life of a lettuce, serious question: is it easier to forecast political outcomes in britain? Oh no effect it's like hard to even follow political outcomes and britain, because people are making so many jokes means, unlike what actually happened to take, a long time to find the actual information they also seem to have just wild, swings than we do in the. U s right, like they'll, see a politician when a seven percent approval rating. No there there is a part information there right, a fact that labour was ahead, thirty five points before she was, I knew you would never see that new s, context where there's no chance given contempt, liver coalitions that you know Joe Biden could cancer in defeat,

but a more prudent, and I don't know what else happens right Anyone who, like fifty fifty one percent, if we want okay, so shall we get to business. Yes, let's begin with the sun, over the summer after the dogs decision, we saw slow, steady improvement in democrats, odds of keeping the senate over months. You know like two and a half months. It took four democrats to get to their parents having a seventy percent chance of holding the senate, that it hovered there for a while and then in the past, or so we ve seen Republicans odds, improve abruptly the odds of each party, winning the Senate now set about fifty fifty, usually you would see something like this one there's a big news story, but unless I missed out, I will know that we have what's going on, I dont know

I mean it can be, and that's the shower thing I don't remember having I mean. First of all, although he is not presenting like an exact replica of reality right, I don't mean the sense of our poles, accurate or not. I mean like that is some luck in some way. Science and in when certain pearls command at certain times. You know, I think of you some true infinite number of holes in every day that might have been more Smooth of downward. You not theirs other theory used it's kind of influence. Kink in the graph happens like right. twenty one day window where poles in five thirty eight count for future pollster ratings. I don't actually think pollsters are literally concerned about that. Little conspiratorial, manga, okay, but like look. pollsters have incentives to be accurate right? I'm a kind of either phase now aware, if you have a way of that could generate

negative reputational risk right. So it's not crazy to me to think that pollsters would be kind of Number, they really think more than kind of. Oh just press the data, numbers. I don't get crazy. If you extend that argument to its logical conclusion, you would say that there is a better chance that the poles are currently off in the direction of favouring republicans more than they shut. It's not easy to think that I mean are our model more than you might assume kind of still seals. rules will favour democrats apart because we are still seeing a fair number of wholesome on registered voters. It's pretty clear that revoking do better. likely voter poles and the model adjust for that in something you have out of date pulling the model just for the fact that we haven't had poles. Yet the new regime. So it's making a timeline adjustment as it's called in some states. fundamentals totally particularly strong for Democrats, so they've kind of overcome the fundamentals, all cycle, maybe not anymore. So if you want to bet relative like the fight for the public,

average still better there on the ash. reality more republican, then the poles, but it's not a crazy argument, ripe, You should always consider the possibility that, like it, maybe it an unusual cycle, one thing my head, is when you have had actual elections since dobbs democratic. very, very well right now it did not look like a red wave. whenever borderline blue wave year. I think We have very little incentive. Two The poles miss and democrats do really well within us in boundary. I if they do like crazy, crazy, well right and like Rhonda santa's loses ok they have like a night on the high end of expectations. They pick up two senate seats. Be the houses? A photo phoenician goes to some regions what are they gonna can't laws? If that happens, but of the rivers happens, we're screwed yeah pretty much, but.

Came, those incentives. People respond to those incentives. Potentially, so do you think at this point to forecast is getting ahead of the poles and away. our congressional model is not particularly aggressive right in part because have these fluctuations that kind of tend to even out over time, because you know it's like our men's is so slow to adjust to dogs. You see like dobbs happened middle june and it takes both at timber. Twenty second for the forecast of peak right couldn't sceptical capital sceptical, but they may be actually just too much meaning about that ways. It it's like actually kind of like a tricky question to define. What you're trying to optimize for, but nobody not as aggressive as like our presidential models where, where it can shift by a few points in a day, one of the thing too, that's a more technical point is that whenever you're near fifty fifty in something near the fat part of the distribution,

it will affect the numbers more right. It doesn't take that much to go from seventy two. Sixty it takes you go from eighty five to ninety five because you're out on the tale, sawr them part here, any otis The forty one waste for the only way isn't that bigger shift in some sense. There are two weeks laugh: if this were a presidential election, we would say shirk. This forecast could change again by fifteen percentage points between now and election day. Do you think that still possible and determined I mean, I think we'll be somewhere in the sixty forty bucket. I think I'd give two to one odds that will be somewhere in or one to two hours that will be somewhere in that sixty five, where the odds were getting worse. we're getting your money, we're gonna get you gotta change the topic, I mean I looks while like so the past few days, all have seen a little bit more stability

You know you ve seen in some are seen in. Poles are pretty good for for Democrats, for example, Less of the sky is following by me. Look we're gonna go in, election night with some degree of considerable rio Certainly the senate and the house will probably wait now where there has to be like a system, pulling error favouring democrats for them to do another again like: the poles and the model are slightly different things right. The model of assumes that there's gonna be a fairly big turn out differential with that, happen. Men, then the house. it's more competitive right If you take the rajah Eric ballot on adjusting likely. Voters eschew plus point five, if you actually, that being the popular vote that would be potentially for competitive in the house, but but We re now thinks it's actually gonna turn out to be three point republican advantage to like formulate republic into three and a half year.

one reason for that is that there are more empty districts. Where Democrats don't have a candy that accounts for like a point or point and half of it so these are likely voter adjustment that that effects that speaking of the generic bout, let's move on to the house, so republicans have an eighty one percent chance of winning the chamber. I think for a lot of people and eighty one percent chance sounds like a done deal. We started putting that uncertainty in context. Just now, you know put these other contacts most it's over. What is an eighty one percent even mean it's pocket aces against pocket. Fives Democrats have pocket five. Sometimes you hit a set on the flop. Okay, you're not happy about it, and what's one house district that you have your eyes on in terms of sort of judging the outcome of the midterms or reading the tea leaves

of where the portico coalitions go from here I mean I think, the ohio, nine re screen capture and reduce ski he's, the one who allegedly he overstated, his military credentials and it's a trump be a think in toledo, she is still ahead and our model. he's been very little polling, that's kind of the classic of like you have a problematic, the public in canada and a fairly strong incumbent, but how can you survive in a red issues in a red reddish year. So that's probably a pretty good benchmark. How much has the importance of incumbency declined over the past decade or so because we still see prime examples incumbency mattering, particularly maybe an incident raises that we saw in twenty twenty two twenty and eighteen bright, Joe mansion susan,

recent collins famously show. How do we go about judging when incumbency matters and when it doesn't Its decline quite a bit in it's kind of hidden in certain ways, its hidden in part. because there are so few comparative districts. Maybe the upper incumbent and win because you're states really redder are really blew, but now the commission, despite just probably only a couple of percentage. it's on average, if you're in a who breaks from their party if you're incumbent, who, as you know actually in smaller states, so states like for virginia or montana or alaska. Incumbency can be quite a bit more powerful. You have more relationship with your constituents, so in some such matters more, but like the generic term. Sadder, oh ohio, oh we're florida, it's. Your private doesn't have much of an come and anymore,

during the summer. As we saw Democrats improve their lot in the polls and in the forecast, we actually, a way to test those numbers, but you brought up before through special elections. We had a good number of special elections throughout the summer before the dogs decision Republicans had a two point over performance in those special elections. After the dogs decision Democrats nine point over performance in a special actions. Now the sample is small, but we were able to look and say this isn't just differential response by us this, Is people actually getting motivated or demotivated or persuaded, and turning up to the poles we you know, unfortunately, for us we want all the data, can I haven't had any special elections after this pulling shift. In republicans during.

Japan- is there any other way to test this in the absence of a special action? I know there's a tough coming in two weeks, but we know if we just way for that region. There are no there there aren't. I mean there are right. I mean there's like don't look. We vote data. Just just don't do it, don't do it no in two weeks will be a test. It would have been nice to have like you know, what's that have some random special action in pennsylvania this week, every fun? But no I mean you it's. It's almost like you almost got an inner like the fog of ignorance. Now we're like, like obviously are forecast, can shift and will shift to some degree between now and november, a right but like it's almost like you could go to sleep for two weeks ago. The grand canyon monoliths troops were like you go in the grand canyon, unlike nine eleven happens, or something well out of the dark. Aren't you diagram? Are you mining your own personal lines? Now I feel like you're, like thirty,

stories and esquire magazine historically about like someone it was the grand canyon like a two week, camping trap and then the world changes when they is the like of me. I I don't about that, but I got rid of what out there but like now, if you like, relatively good time to do that. So we are you, then, MR silver yourself, one of the people who would say like don't look at the polls, don't look at the forecast you're going to find out soon enough. Our boss is sitting right there and we want traffic, so This might have to be off the record. But what are you saying? I mean what what more we gonna to learn. I I guess there is some question about like kind of houses, republican surge abated the continuing right, but I'm not sure we're gonna like like we're gonna go into election night. I think with like the Senate being the uncertain and with the clear republican, but not impossible, democratic path and in the house. So, despite your suggestion that people sit in the uncertainty for two weeks

nah, that's not what people are going to do outside, even what we're going to do, and so, in the run up to a close election like this, people try to look for other sources of data to try to read the tea leaves, and that brings us to today's good or add use of pulling one of these pieces of data is oftentimes enthusiasm and NBC recently published a pole enthusiasm with the following right. Up quote the pole found seventy percent of all registered voters expressing high interest in the election either nine or ten on a ten point, scale the highest percentage ever in the survey for a mid term election. At this point. This comes after, of course, record turnout and twenty eighty by party. Seventy eight percent of republicans have high interest in the bit terms compared with sixty nine percent of democrats. The ninth point- gnp enthusiasm edge, is up from september when it was plus three and august when it was plus two

useful is enthusiasm, polling like this. That actually is a pretty good indication historically and different ways. my question, sometimes people ask how this compare. To your usual interest in the terms that, like that questions been reasonably predictive of Both rural turn out in Canada Renshaw, and so you know yet the theme areas there is yours, Can I have a year like twenty, ten or before, fourteen were democratic. Turnout was pathetic, right, you're gonna have at least pretty good democratic turn out. Pollsters are pulses, are totally of ripe but you're gonna, have also really can republican turn out, if not better, and Democrats might have the deal closing the deal we motors voters on an economy. We also can we talk about why this is because I think after the dobbs decision, the word on the street was

that enthusiasm was really high amongst democratic voters. Even independence were motivated by the issue. Republicans had become somewhat demotivated now that were sort of in the fall. Is it that you know the historic trends are set again when, when your party is of power and you don't really like the party in power like decided. Faction is more motivating in politics. Electoral politics then satisfaction. I mean it well, yes, in general, there is a enthusiasm advantage that helps our party the opposition party this year, the republicans there's also historically been just in general you're a republican turnout advantage because they are voters tend to be older wider use to be more educated. They face less fuel barriers to voting right in have historically higher turnout now some of them is shifting now that you have democrats, have this college the coalition. Those people in the mid term used more and more look at about. So I am not sure whether there's the historical she'll, be biased, like the voters

but there is the conditional advantage that you're out of power? again. My should be careful when, because, like you know how. Out of power is the gnp. When you have a lot of major states where you have very aggressive gnp governors, I mean you have a supreme court that is pretty activist right so What kind of argument? That's like the historic, democrats have a if they hold the house, then s argument for. Why did it is because the gnp was dead strange voters of how much power it had this off your election, but this brings up a good point because in some ways, if you look at the individual states, obviously in each state a different party is oftentimes in power. There are some states where there is divided power, but you get the point. Do we see deferential turn out amongst partisans based on the

or partisanship of a state like democrats and a red state might be more motivated to turn out because their upset about dogs, or something like that or republicans in a blue state are more motivated to turn out because there so about the shot down that inflation and whatever it may be, I haven't you about how I like tests that question empirically it's like not crazy thought right that you are reactive in part against, I mean every now and then it seemed like a get like you know. What was this got round? we election back and twenty turn right, where If you are in a state, we wrote usually doesn't matter for some reason. You randomly get an election where it can matter It can be motivating. I mean. Probably there are states you move and if you re republican in new york city than you kind of just disappear from politics does your vote doesn't really control very much. Maybe it sitting around around them.

But I haven't looked at that rigorously, while speaking of frustrating partisan conceptions impulses. Let's talk about governors and, yes, you guys recognize who that is finally, is here with us today, of course, so governors raises tend to be less partisan than house or send it raises. That's how you end up with popular republican governors of massachusetts, popular democratic governors of louisiana. Recently we have seen poles showing closer than expected raises in states. oklahoma and new york in Oklahoma incumbent governor have instead is only leading his democratic opponent. Joy half my store by a point in our pulling average, but our forecasts suggest: but has a ninety one percent chance of real action. What nor should we pay more attention to the forecasts for more attention to the polling average. The forecasts, For more information

man with confidence to first This is where the power really like a big data thing, that this is where the power of empiricism helps right. If you go back and look at all the elections where the polling is kind of clothes, innocent that you they really read or really blew, and what happens? It usually defaults too, to the partisan winter. In that I mean I should show their different routes to the forecast, the light in Oklahoma has you know, has it fixed I thought, thirty, five or something right and the fundamentals version has it. You know eighty twenty or something, and but like that, you know the expert forecasts of your. Happening, these are probably like you have, a few recent polls but they're kind of smaller full size, poles, So a lot of pollsters in Oklahoma. They have a long track record, and so it's like not like you have like the murders row of pollsters pulling up a home, for example right, you have suggestion the races comparative like if you look more often than not it,

one point behind in Oklahoma, and they want of having a real till they could hear about losing by by six or something so should we by the same logic to new york, where we ve seen democratic governor Cathy hoboes, lead over republican, leaves out and has fallen from sixteen points. Seven points since labour day there are pulls out now showing both single digitally it's for Cathy hope or again, our forecasts. Just then she has a ninety seven percent chance of winning reelection or there circumstance those in which we do see someone like a result in winning in a mid term environment where partisanship applies less took material raises. You know, one party has full control of the white house and congress. I mean he does not have the profile of someone who you would think when over performance much nor Local seem like she has any enormous problems a thoroughly. What do we have that risk?

realistically I mean, I think I think pretty low for his album, but like represent chance. First of all, she has a pretty big. We in nepal weather so to perform? You're not is one thing but like there's also like a fish, number of spamming, poles, it is affiliated poles in that raise If you like array If you are trying to make happen a little bit like south carolina lindsey graham couple, ago or something but but you know, but south carolina is less red in new york- is blue. No, if she loses them, we're again, my god pulls out another disastrous night. You know aftermath where have you a very bad route for Democrats? I don't think she is like, visual factors? That would cost

lose in less like just the poles are totally bed so that what we have you have other topic of governor and check out the site when there is a rising star. as in both parties running for reelection or election in gubernatorial, raises this year round a sentence in florida carry wake in arizona, better or work in texas, stacy abrams in georgia, gretchen Whittemore in Michigan, which gets me thinking about twenty twond? for you ready, I'm always ready. How will the results of twenty twenty two shape, who runs and even who wins in twenty twenty four and let's we're going we're gonna do like you give me like an a one, a two b, one b tier when you're, trying to like break down your explanations for how things are going so a one is how does

Biden decision about whether or not to run again and twenty twenty four get shaped by the mid term outcomes, or is that irrelevant? Well, definitely effect like the media narrative about Biden back when Democrats look like they're going get rooted in the mid term? You heard him when buying a thirty seven percent of already heard almost assumption that he would be out of office after first time and then a kind of shifting towards course he's the strongest democratic alternative. I mean I think they are the over shifted role to the decision that I can probably about, like you know what his physical and mental stamina offer for years and or how does he think that will play with voters and for liability, my family, you does, he think he is the best person to win. We election for for Democrats but certainly if you have your head candidates like given newsome running for twenty twenty four,

you'll have much more of that may be quietly at first. Not so quietly after that, if democrats get get around it right you have less of that, if they like have a good year and in the middle then it's kind of status quo. I guess, but like africa I mean you know, you, gotta prediction, markets, It still Biden have Biden as an underdog to run and are to be the nominee not to run necessarily but to be the nominee in two thousand twenty four. So let's break these rising stars into a couple of buckets. We have the folks who have almost no chance between little chance at almost no chance of winning beto o'rourke and stacey abrams. If you run and lose two high profile, statewide campaigns and then embeds case also a national campaign and lose all of them is your career over.

I think they are in different buckets. Actually I mean I think, like so. First of all, like in general, parties benefit from having plausible stand, ends in case something goes wrong. Greg abbot has some major scandal and success? Can it's five or ten points, then, can win? And so you know you were there And when you have a problematic democratic candidate as well I mean abrams, I think, is under performing a little bit right, I mean camp. Most certainly environment, but obviously there are two very different rates of different races but like, but she thinks you're any kind of more of a national israel. where she's running to the left, if anything a little bit and You know I'm not sure. If she's not trying to businesses, more for like just being player on the national seen in a part of the

rotation right, but I do feel I cannot get like if you're a political party to have candidates who are credible candidates who take that five percent or temper flyer that comes through sometimes like you want to courage that- and so you know that probably both gonna lose and they get like alive crap at them. But like it's, a healthy for a party when are are running away anywhere they have even a remote chance. Will you here arguments on two counts. One is what you're saying on the off chance, something you know if camped doesn't when the primary all of a sudden, stacy abrams, is running against David Purdue than the rays might look different, but you also know the argument, like oh party, should put up strong viable candidates, even in states where they know they might lose, because it's a process of building a party infrastructure and like one day we will win. Is that how politics works?

I don't know, I mean party in you. Never get like Alaska is a state. Now, where Democrats have a house incumbent, I mean it's rather because of the way, choice, voting system right but like, but you never know state like alaska become more more competitive. It's like not crazy, think that alaska so eccentric. Like in eight years at twelve years, alaska some type of swing state. No, I think it's always good over the long term and democrats have kind of forgotten that right the whole kind of fifty streets. energy under under dean and now look I mentioned earlier. You have far more just there is no Democrat running then no republican running either maybe things where you know. If you down, Bela races, going down to dog capture and city council You know he doesn't even see them on the ballot. There's no street ticket option, then that can that could potentially hurt the party to the flip side of this is like people, I think, stand too much time donating to hopeless races with me

the five candidates right, that's that's one way, Israel's that people aren't spending their money in cases where it would matter more, but okay, so next buck at rising star republicans, ronda santas and Kerry. Wake rhonda santos has a over ninety per cent chance of winning reelection. According to our forecast, Kerry lake is in a pretty competitive race, it's more or less a fifty fifty proposition the gubernatorial race in arizona. Do folks like that, have a real argument to make against trump as the heir apparent to the nomination in twenty twenty four. I mean, I think what the this is clearly like, knew somebody, the more so kind of already running. A twenty four campaign right is not officially declared yet restaurant for that matter, but he is doing the thing.

to gain and national profile. You can see him carving out a kind of wings. The centre where, on the one hand, the true facts lose watching Services might actually think that he is more on the ball. Talking about the contrary, the day and bussing immigrants to Martha's, vineyard and critical race theory right, whereas a model I think, at the end of the day, he's a little more saying men trump and we can trust him a little bit more you know so he's already kind of running a somewhat tactically effective. pain. I think it's somewhat remains to be seen how, like charismatic, appealing actually use as a candidate lake is someone who you can kind of verdict. Given. The psyche of the media would attract a lot of attention right as here someone who is trumpet in a much more presentable package

this is someone who says staunchly that the twenty twenty election was rigged basically made that the centre of our primary campaign and has it has stuck to it in a way that even other republican candidates have not in competitive statewide in a in a swing state to do and he's now, you know are performing masters little bit with a what's up with that right, like she's, an extreme candidate, the things that she says about, twenty twenty are verifiable false and yet she is doing significantly better than blake masters and that raise because she has this tv. News cast your persona we can kind of like I don't they should come cross to the. Voter as extreme and she walked a line that I mean with trumpet. no explicit right, like dissenters, it's kind of like so naked leap, tactical and kind of it

cruising way about, like with like it's like Oh, you can kind of speak with some ambiguity. To have practices like on talent where you wash like a business with John Carl right, he just kind of the line where, if you don't know the subject and the context and she says well if the election, is fair and of course I respect it right like that, once that crazy to the average What are necessarily right, it's more the sub of what she really believes over time. That makes her further, at least on stop the steel stuff right wing, then someone else might seem final barbaric here. As I mentioned gretchen, where markets we're talking about gubernatorial candidates, you can maybe add Raphael worn out to the pact. Even though he's running for re election and ascended campaign, is it clear who other than Gavin do some would make a start

like plausible pitch, to be the next democratic nominee in a way that would maybe encourage Joe Biden to be, like maybe as an asset michiganders. I think Whittemore is so. She is a fairly heavy faye and might over perform in the environment. Right, I think you know, She is also going to be a few. Israel acted reacted by the way that church rate with cotton of a toss up right now, but are in our foreign gubernatorial. We in our forecast, women is doing very, like our forecasts she's wedding. She went ahead, which has been solely ahead in the polls. There's some that have a smaller argentina have a wider margin right, but now she has a pretty good argument: from governor from a swing state. Our performed before mantles if you're inferior second term you to have this thing about like it's the weird, if like better, somehow one right you're like a finally, when an election now I'm gonna run for president. I that would be pretty weird right.

I'm not sure these kind of first from governors are really gonna be plausible candidates, and I Warnock is interest Thing if you, if somehow stacy abrams one in jerry you'd, have a a democrat reappointed to this Right then, I guess from a social action beheld I guess you have like, but she would go up yet and if you somehow ran right I mean you ve democrat like. Maybe if warnock wins Democrats lose the Senate anyway, then maybe the one. Forty nine and fifty two doesn't matter, but the fact that he would cost democrats campaigns at least temporarily ascendancy, is kind of a vital role in respect of all you have to resign to run out. It really don't have resigned investors laws in georgia. That would compel that you don't have to We're there. If you win, you perhaps to resign, we're not going on about? Let us all right. We have made it through our forecasts. I hope that answered every question you ve ever had about a merry

politics in the house, senate and governance mentions across the country so now it's time for our special guests. I want to welcome up on stage five thirty eight, washington dc bureau Amelia thompson and and Nathaniel wreckage get out of here today is podcast is brought to you by better help online therapy. It can be taught to train your brain to stay in problem solving mode. When faced with a challenge in life, but when you learn how to find your own solutions, there is no better feeling a therapist can help. You become a better problem, solver, making it easier to accomplish your goals, no matter how big or small, if you're thinking of giving therapy, I try better help as a great option

convenient, accessible, affordable and entirely online get matched with a therapist after filling out a brief survey and switch therapists any time when you want a better problem, solver therapy can get you there visit better help. Dot com slash five three eight today to get ten percent off your first month. That's better help b e t, t e r, H, e l, p, dot com, slash five; three, eight, the numbers, not the letters, better, help, dot com, slash five, three, eight walk right here, it's seven, forty five! This was supposed to happen at seven, forty, five and seven. This has never happened freely, yak gas. Thank you. Ratify amelia thompson, is a senior writer at five thirty, eight round of applause,

Then your wreckage is a senior elections analyst at five. Thirty, a another round of applause, the I dunno I dunno, if I'm allowed to do, runs but take off scaling is sitting right sitting right there. I asked her before I do that connect strip during alive shown shoes. Nike air go for it here? We're friends? I have a five should enter here as radical vulnerability. I live in DC and was perhaps you could join us tonight. We're gonna play some midterms trivia, but before we get to that want to ask you a little bit about your beat so Amelia you,

covering the dogs decision and its political and legal ramification since, before the decision to even came down and in the wake of the decision, as we discussed, we saw record numbers of american saying that abortion was a top issue for the country. That's fallen some sense, and at this point I'm curious. How is the dogs decision shaping these midterms. So I think there are a couple of ways to look at it. One from my perspective as someone who's been covering abortion for almost a decade, is that what happened over the summer was crazy? I am used to Looking in these issue, poles and kind of looking down down down down down the issues, an abortion is right at the bottom. It was just not something that was on people's radar. It was not something they really wanted to think about, and then the dobbs decision happened and it was shocking and a lot of people were angry and other people were happy, but it was something that brought

issue forward in a really visceral way, and we saw that in the polls and abortion was in rising. Hi is the economy and inflation, but it was up there with issues that I'm much more used to seeing at the top of voters' priorities, and so in that sense, even if abortion has fallen a little bit- and I would caveat that by saying I don't know if we know that it's because of boris it has fallen in voters, priorities or because something like economy and the inflation and inflation is rising. We don't know that we just know how their prioritizing in a waste or a group of three by even Then, if abortion is less salient that it was a few months ago, it has already shape this meant terms. It has brought democrats into the mixture, certainly helped bring democrats into the mix in a way that we would not have predicted. So that's my argument for

Still matters I mean: does it matter even more in specific states because, of course, we're going to see states where there are valid questions on legal abortion? We're gonna, see gubernatorial raises where the individual candidates have set themselves up as a proxy for voting on legal abortion or where have you are their particular states where you think, like you're, going to be able to look at that election and say well, okay, that definitely mattered in michigan or arizona, but it probably wasn't really motivating voters in new york. That's a super interesting question because democrats, trying to run on abortion everywhere. You ve got the Oregon. Durban coral race ads are all about abortion, I have to say organ is probably I dont know if it's the place in the country abortion rates are the safest, but it is really up there. So, if you're thinking about issues that would matter to Oregon,

yours as their thinking about their own life and perhaps their own ability to access abortion. You would not accept that to really motivate people, On the other hand, a stately michigan, we're voters were literally be going out and voting on whether abortion is enshrined in their state constitution. It matters a lot in obvious ways there, and so I think one of the interesting questions will be How are voters motivated in states where the outcome of the midterms will really matter for abortion access versus how much is this an issue that has percolated into the national environment to the point where, even if you're in

blue state where abortion access is not under threat at all. A candidate talking about abortion and talking about the threat to abortion is still going to make. You want to come out and vote. Both speaks of the nationalization of our politics right people aren't necessarily looking at you know whether abortion is at stake in their race. They just think abortion is important nationally and that's going to motivate me to vote right, but it's, but it's interesting with abortion, because I spend a lot of time talking to people about abortion and people in texas, I'll just say anecdotally. This is this is not something that I I pulled out a survey, but people in texas seem to feel this issue a lot

More strongly and sort of experience, actually, then people in blue states for people in blue state through I talk to who care about abortion, they're saying you know, I'm donated to own abortion, found them doing x y see, but it's not the same kind of like I see this in my community. I see this in my state and I dont know if dobbs change that I think the mid term. There's gonna be a really interesting on test yeah. I once we get, the results were going to come back here and do us all over again. Then I answer all these questions. Were you know the real hard data you don't get to the bottom of it all now we will come back because another life shall live annual. Speaking of the election, and we get the results yeah when we got the results. I know this as a synagogue, I'm sure I'm just going to This is the scary part of the podcast cast a. We are were there when I watch day turned into election week in twenty twenty

I don't remember it, but if you say so, I the vigour remember is that I presented my birthday party because I you know we're stuck in my apartment for six days cover for the election this year. Again, I now, but it's hard to sell its hardly go hard when you know that there is an election and pray You know I got my party, so outwards really get tied up so election weak. There were questions about the building process. During a pandemic it took days to get the results in key states once those results were in the president and other republic cast doubt on their legitimacy. Should we expect twenty twenty two to be different, well. When you told me that we were going to be talking about this, I did some research shrill pink behind Britain are, and all this is all staged folks

I you know I originally. I was fairly optimistic that we would, you know, get all or most of the results on election night after doing the research, I am not as sanguine about that. Unfortunately, Yeah I mean you know it just comes down to you like, especially like, given our forecasts, members in the house right now, right control, the house. If things go as expected, will probably you known and election night republicans? Will reflect that with some room to spare? the senate. We now know. Basically it's gonna come down to three states, right, pennsylvania, arizona and the vat. I think earth are not arizona on patenting to georgia and about it, and I think that there are real questions as to how quickly will get the results in all of those states, at least two of them plus arizona, which is why I mentioned it, which is, of course, probably number four on the kind of priority list for the senate, so in pennsylvania, pennsylvania,

estate. That does not allow processing of absentee ballots, which is why it took, I think, five days in two thousand and twenty for the result to be called, and that, of course, was the state that deliver the presidency to Biden and because of that- and you know it just is going to take a long time to to count absentee votes, and you know these counties the people who are counting the votes they have we're experienced this year a lot of counties that actually, like literally we're like ok, it's ten p m, we're gonna go home and stuff counting again in the morning they have said they won't be doing that this year, so that should be faster, but Nothing is kind of fundamentally changed in terms of the the. The big thing here is like the question is how many people are gonna vote by mail, of course, during twenty in the middle of a pandemic, a lot of people voted by male, obviously around fifty percent of pennsylvania votes were ballots. Will it be this

hi this year, probably not will it be higher than usual? Still probably, I think there are a lot of people in particular Democrats who voted by more than twenty twenty we're like hey. This was really convenient, be, and I'm gonna do this going forward. and so yeah. So I think that a state like pennsylvania, especially given the american factor here too, is how close these races our right, even if every ballot were election day and kind of cats in the traditional manner. If a racist super close, you know within a recount margin, half a percentage point or something like that. It's gonna take days, if not longer, to get through the winter. There in a state like pennsylvania? That can happen in a state like georgia that could happen. Nevada is a state where they're actually not allowed to report any results until the last voter in line has voted, and so we probably won't get any results in nevada until I dunno eleven midnight

eastern time and then about it, is a meal. It is now it is permanently switch to a vote by mail system, so that could also take days a cow. I wouldn't be surprised if we're waiting on about it as high control, the senate, and then in georgia, we have, because you run off, which there's a good show. It rightly December repeat: right here is a good chance to diagnose the catholic thanksgiving plants, without probably everybody in the audience already knows this, because you're out of five three politics by companies even about if nobody in if no candidate in georgia gets at least fifty percent of the vote. That goes to a run off in December. So yeah control the senate. I I don't think we'll know on an election night, so when it comes to first round we've brought off to the side for a second, you had to pick a date on which we will know the results of the twenty eight twenty two midterms, which and then you're gonna have to do the over and you can hold its need. I mean

like a lot does depend on like whether the the polls and the forecasts are accurate right if kind of things go down, as we expect and like nevada in particular, is super super close, I'm going to say, like maybe thursday, You know in terms of just kind of being able to identify a you know, a candidate with a clearly there and and but again like if it comes down to georgia, run out yet yeah. I mean you're taking me over sorry. When will a b c news call the election or when will I know yeah to which like to pull the curtain back for a staggering? I don't even think we've ever talked about I went about an election night, twenty twenty knowing who had won.

Well, that's on that day, yeah yeah I went to bed and morn is it was clear who had once and after that, no aki the yes like the pianist convert into bad resolve, Arizona had been called by the time I went about it forgets. Cotton was called, can only honest. We just have to like this. I should cause. I was there immature by fax. It was, and I found out- maybe you're calling me like It might be something you know, if arizona is been called then republic of the very few out right they would have the kind of sweets remaining races by arizona was obviously very but we also beyond just the fox call. We had reason to believe based on how to vote was being counted where the vote was etc. To believe, would end up in democratic com. So I take your criticism of foxes call. I still went about on election night, knowing who won back that's what he's going to take over under thursday,

For women I know I'll, take the under I'll take wednesday, you're gonna know it's a weird like, I think, there's like a sixty percent. Chance. You have a clear enough outcome that will go on some we our the morning on election night right in any kind of becomes elongated to wear, that georgia run after us, throw them into some doubt. So, maybe like fifty fifty, we know no election. I I there's a call right. You know. We don't know election night. How can we know. next day, whether its call, but you have the function like what you really want to just like tier there's, our fear, etc. Now you want to cover every single bass liking, you're fired, they building ragged narrower an hour. We love an art, deca explanations. I need summer Amelia over under I'm gonna say over to be interesting and also because this election has been way more interest

and then it should have been on restoring why? Why should it stop being interesting? And why should our november be com? And all I heard it is all about us raid, the whole politics world, as it is designed to make our own regular elections is based on what how much I hated my life. Really rent or whatever. Anyway, I got some really weird stories. I can share the time, have a lot of good stories from two thousand and twenty election weeknight. Do you guys know what's next trivia? political trivia ready ok, so the way this works is whoever gets closest to the correct answer. We'll get a point

there's no negotiating correct answer. As I know, the people that I'm playing with, I know you are ones to try to squeeze out that extra point debate your way into a win. That will not happen. I love we in turn and we ve been asking track down a lot of this data she's right there give her out of an enclave, she's she's, also part of our dc bureau. But if you have any issues with the answers, you don't think they're actually correct. You can take them with Emily. On your own time or not, I mean you know you're, so much more funding yellow happened, emigrating, okay, so the neck. The first question begins with a little bit of a story, so when I was getting ready for this wives sheraton I pulled up.

The slide show from our last lifestyle, which was at six than I on january. Sixteen twenty twenty and the first slide was the five thirty eight democratic primary work has twenty twenty, showing the odds that you know. Joe Biden, Bernie sanders and Elizabeth Warren people to judge, etc would win the democratic nomination and I just thought: wow. It's been a long couple of years, and so the first question to all of you is on january, sixteenth, two thousand and twenty. What was Joe Biden's chance of winning the democratic nomination, we're going to change up the flow from one question to the next, because I know there are advantages to going last, so Nathaniel going to start I did study for this, but I didn't study this and gosh. I really did memory whole twenty I'll say forty five percent.

Well. Is this aversion, where we have no winner, where we have contested just as a scenario, because our model, like that one for awhile. I'm gonna go thirty, eight percent, ok area. This is challenging because I have to remember how many people were running at tat point I will say Forty per cent and Amelia got said it is forty percent. Now thor. The folks listening along at home. There's then sanders with a twenty three percent chance, no one with a fifteen percent chance of touring with a thirteen percent chance buddha judge with an eight percent chance and all others at a one percent chance. One point amelia next question: what percentage of the voting age population voted in the two thousand and eighteen midterms which

was a record setting turn out year start with you, the voting age population. The voter eligible population voted voting like forty nine. Forty nine, a guy Amelia. I think it was forty seven now nathaniel line a fifty fifty It's fifty three percent rate. If you got at the in two thousand and fourteen there's a data from the census, the census bureau recorded the lowest turnout rate on record, which was only forty two percent of the voting age population. Turned out so you know, like you all thank but like we weaken. or pools and surveys.

americans on all kinds of things were like. Oh, this is what americans things is what americans think and especially when you're, focusing on poles of all things elections, especially an amateur I'm like this, without actually talking about the only thing about like half the country, yeah yeah yeah, a lot of people don't care alright, Amelia you're, ready to I I was this- is a fun way, Jimmy Carter holds the record for the most movies watched, in the white house family theatre, many movies did he watched during has one term as president. That's an extremely impressive rhetoric, as the only serve wouldn't Maybe that's why you didn't get reelected, he was watching movies, I mean. Was he watching a movie every? No I'll say two hundred and fifty two hundred fifty Nathaniel highlights the way higher than that

did you do. I gimme quite familiar from a guy, say, six hundred I'll get. if these six hundred and eighty nine to forty nine, I took me under the president is busy okay. I want to gauge what the audience thinks. The answer is, so we're going to go you're going to vote by applause so who thinks it was two hundred and fifty we think it was six hundred who things it was two hundred forty and. Eighty movies nathaniel debts that so little.

A little horrifying to watch movies. Lithuania would have given a middle east, wrap this data I'm courtesy of Paul fisher, the white house projectionist from nineteen fifty three to nineteen. Eighty six Jimmy carter was also the first president to watch an x rated movie in the white house, bitter project midnight I combine with his family. Ok, so it is made silver, zero, Amelia one wreckage too we back to where we began guess nebraska, nevada and washington dc borders are deciding if they will increase the minimum wage. This election cycle. In the past twenty years there have been twenty one ballot measures to increase the minimum wage across the country. What percentage have passed

good question! This is a very real. You love a man. Ballot measure We are you really nobody here and there in front of me when you get out of here we're one. Ninety point force if percent, which is out of twenty one, you gotta routed to the nearest tenth. Ninety point: five percent nineteen out of twenty one. Ninety point: five yep guy trying to figure out the final jeopardy scrabble to here. Ninety seven, ninety seven or eight bald, which is not a Amelia, said eighty

Mr Silva, you get it at a hundred percent wow, the next expression. I think that the fears may have a little bit of an advantage here. The district of columbia is not a state. I figure Emily for emphasising that question. Writing she wants you to feel it, but when compared to all Fifty states, where does washington dc rank in the gallons of wine consumed per capita? Is it me first this time? First, first so my allowed to safer, stronger uk? No, no yeah, You can just don't get tired of over the rules with ok, we manager,

did you know he allowed to safer emily? You get to pick and choose to say. First, I don't. And they both anymore. I don't I never rarely remilly, that's ok, I will say third, then You'll. Can you guess who's first, there what's number one, because he first oh yeah, ok for a bonus points. Why didn't? I just sometimes have difficulty with math when I don't have a calculator in the front range, so it's one to three one right, one amelia three in its annual one knee! Yes, it's a bonus point of view can does number one so that this was the same as last time naked or organ tat kind of california, Wednesday.

Vermont, what we're ok dc- we have. We have an actual simple to pull right here. So, if your second, who do you think, is number one wisconsin wisconsin, they print like even bigger. Are they didn't like they were about to order a glass of wine. We either. Ok, let's try one more time: yo lots! More state kinetic gets a good. Why had etiquette is carbonated israeli guide yeah? I honestly here a single person saying guys idaho again, so sensors, and we all know that data is not always so there's a spirited antimonium in the house today. So we,

oh, no, that data is not always so simple and there are different ways to measure with us and we were measuring it by. Guy, when of ethanol, alcohol per wine consumed by state, We're capita! Oh well, if you told me that which, according to the national institute on alcohol abuse and alcoholism is the best way to measure. How zone. Italy right back up up up up up according to the beer institute heard of it and I haven't according to beer institute, washingtonians drink, more wine than any state, but they measured by the glass and based on estimates so consolation prize for all of your data. Yeah

Ok, so it is now one amelia one nathaniel free of presidents. Since world war to president obama was the most combined house and senate seeds during his presidency, counting all three elections after he was first elected and that's the tumor terms and his re election campaign. How many combined house and senate seeds did democratic lose during his president see I gosh I dunno. This is a bad one for me to be going first and one hundred and forty one hundred and forty nathaniel eighty eighty, eighty one Mr Silva gets at its aim. That is only too more than dwight eisenhower lost during his presidency,

was going to say eighty five, but I'm just playing my positional advantage here, no need to yeah they're going to strategy first, okay. So it's three two one: oh alright, I'm going to step up my game. This is the final question that we're going to take audience, crush if you're, ready, according to census data from two thousand and nineteen dc, has the highest percentage of same sex couple households in the country when compared to the fifty states, what percentage of dc households are same sex couples. You cheering on the audience for statistics of the audience is its nathaniel lotta whispering. And so I should say we try to try. down the gayest congressional district at america a couple years ago for something I was working on,

I just happened to be that I didn't mean it doesn't exist anymore, but it was near its tenth and it's complicated because the american community term doesn't ask straight up like are you gay and like? Are you living with your partner, and so the estimates run low I'll? Give you that hint, like, I think DC, is gayer than this number actually interesting so like roommates, whether or not count there was just like it whether there are too many rooms like signed a relevant and their married. They have to, I think, other mary. Oh it's a run. A romantic couple.

Ok, I'm gonna get back there by you guys, either way so to say ten percent figure for four seven. I'm going to lose anyway, seven dropping for hundreds of it's seven point, one percent, the that is the highest compared to any state in the nation, with the national average being one point, five percent, so congratulations dc on being so gay laughed, and now we, are going to and with some questions from the audience, but before who who one go outside I doesn't

daniel you. What round of there are right that the rapid

Today's podcast think you need amelia and nathaniel the, and thank you to six than I have for hosting us tonight. A special thanks to vanessa Diaz. Our colleague, who took the lead on organizing tonight's, show the inherent Emily Emily, even as gave boys played a big role tonight. Random was the most importantly thanks to all of you for coming today, the you can get in touch by emailing us at podcast five dot com. You can also, of course, we at us with any questions or comments. You can also watch this podcast on youtube. Thanks again and we'll see us in the now a word from our sponsor better help. It can be done.

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