You know, I'm we're about those I forgetting like friends. Like spell in an kids in like dogs, names, hello and welcome to this debate. Recap: episode of the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop, and we are coming to you from this spin room of the debate in Manchester New Hampshire for folks, not familiar with the jargon this room is where all the press hangs out and if you Using this as a video, you can see the media and candidates swarming over our shoulders. Remind me, you should check out five three thirty on Youtube. If you haven't, you can watch us there and see all the action behind us anyway. It was a high stakes, debate with the next primary, does, of course, here in New Hampshire only four days away. It was also high stakes b. Because of the way the I want results or lack thereof, have jumbled the leaderboard. So there's an honor

competition among the more moderate candidates to try to emerge as the leading alternative to Bernie Sanders. Who currently leads the polls in New Hampshire? So how did it go to answer that are here with me? Editor in chief needs over how's, it goin, let's go Great Galen, also here in US managing editor, make a common area very good, hello, Emmy, M C macroeconomic Cohen, and also here with us, is politics editor Sarah Process and Harrier GAD, Hake Ellen all right. So, sir, let's start with you, what are your top line? Take away from tonight's debate? Well, going, and I believe the New Hampshire Party Chair had said that this was the most consequential primary debate ever for New Hampshire. And I got to say it- did not live up to the hype because taken us down, and we know centres and buddhas judge to your point. You have kind of both been crowned as the victors coming out of our right and they both at

good night. So it's not like someone else who had it benefited in some way from Iowa. I felt like Sir the spotlight from them. You know to his credit, I think bite and did speak up. More was a bit more energetic and emphatic about why you should forget about it. Even if his opening bed was like look at do well in Iowa, I'm also not going to do well in New Hampshire. He moved away from that, though right he pivoted to South Carolina. He talked about Luke. I get things done in Congress. Here's why you should vote for me, but that said at the at the end of the day, due to Judge and Sanders. They had great performances

are also doing well in New Hampshire, it's hard for me to see how that shift it tonight. So I didn't think they had great performances, but I would say, like they did fine and their what there wasn't anybody that really stood out for me on the positive end or on the negative and really- and I think that's the that's, but Sarah saying is Right- is that this doesn't feel like a debate. That's gonna change the trajectory of the race. Really, Do you agree with that? Of course he does. I think it's I felt like I innovative that take fifty minutes go oh these, oh gee lonely, but there are good and change much take. Let me give you some nuances. First of all there should you like not being caught now it promotes we received an and saying it's neutral right light you now booted such took some.

Income they hit so much in cartoons and on his experience level, his record on race in South Ben right. You know On the other hand, you know it's kind of affable and lowers people were raising their vault voice. A lot more tonight right, any kind of unique, can see some New Hampshire independence like now sought, You know, I don't know you putting reacted by its performance, which is different and previous Biden performances. Certainly it does seem like that. Pundits. Autocracy is single Amy Club, I was the winner, I think club a shower. Probably have like kind of objectively the best debate, I am suspicious of hurried debates. It was her best. Or she has had several debates of all of the candidates. Presently, if you're judging on debating point, I mean to sound like cynical but like, but we have seen how Bashar be judged to be, Winner of numerous debates, I think, may be fairly judging on debating points right and like

really has that move. The polls that much, although even like you know, even if one or two point shift towards global char, could have some effects and probably would come, maybe from the Buddha can't mainly from the Biden Camp mainly from the war in camp. I don't know I want to drill down on that a little bit, because there you started off by saying it seemed like Buddha, Judge and Sanders kind of captured the night in the way they captured Iowa. The me tension of the evening was perhaps- and you can argue against this idea- if you want to but like who would take up, moderate mantle as the alternative to centre right and clearly you know the main contenders were Buddha. Judged by an enclosure did club ashore Biden, do much too like stop Buddha, judges, momentum or take away. Claim of being, at least in this moment. The moderate alternative,

I didn't definitely was like I'm still here right. He he made it clear that he is going to continue to fight to be in this race, even if he does poorly in New Hampshire. That said, I still think if he comes and fourth that that's just not a good luck and it's going to be harder for him. Ford. I think, though, for closure to needs point yeah. She had a strong night. She also had like three strong debates and it's done nothing for her either nationally a little bit and an eye when you have little by little bit, but, like I am very sceptical that that was enough to take her over the finish line. Maybe it is for New Hampshire, but right now, she's pretty low and our forecasts for chances there. I also would would push back but Galen over your framing of the night, just in the sense of like that finish in Iowa was, you know, Sanders Buddha judge something that still mass

then Warren, then Biden so like I, I think where war in fits into this race is hard to plain, given the lanes or I dunno. Maybe she just as a small part of of one lane, but but Biden has has the cop all three of them now now maybe can but like Worn had a fine night too, and she doesn't show any signs of going away so I will organise a spoke among the leaves. Where did I unsolicited three? I guess you trying to call them frontrunners, because the first tied by one of those leading national Poles rights, Abiden, Buddha, church and Bernie got the most speaking time, more like perception, but like she, actually God decent amount of speaking time, like it just she didn't really necessarily have a terrible.

Aggressive strategy? Most you got the third least after styrene Yang. Ok, so close our spoke more yeah, I mean what is like. What is her position at this point? What path forward, I think you're path forward would be going after burn me. I know right at me. The problem is like it's all a little bit fluid where she can address a little bit into the kind of college. Educated one key lane that is not entirely separate from the lane that route to touch it but which are in a meal. One kind of origin question I have is like how much your new Hampshire, Voter Ryan, Actually, you probably know you're normal New Hampshire, but if it was this podcast but like how behaving tactically right, because Biden skis me for a moment go to church and sanders are pretty different candidates. If one or two of them wins, it has pretty big implications for the rest of the primary countered

not necessarily eliminate every other choice with due to choose map, we tend to leave things more wide open right in because it does only with voters yeah. I am not sure that even if he wins do have stability, which is a particularly safe bet to win Hampshire, simply not South Carolina right how much will vote or say I like Amy, and I like PETE, but Peter chance actually win. I've seen always poles therefore emanistic with PR move to be right. Also why, like I thought, not execution was that warrant. Exe you'd better at that strategy wise by gay people more memorable moments passed we kind of an negatively almost. I think it's almost smart because you don't want, like that vote or to say, ok. Well, for A job is kind of aid. In the background, when a pic Bernier Buddha church right, you want them to say

You know what actually Emma Joe fan and ease he needs to get as much I have to stay alive here right and because I think the interpretation of by diminishing third versus for maybe it's stupid. Maybe this matter I just gonna feel like binding. Seventeen percent in third place. We received a lot different than by getting you no thirteen percent and fourth place, yet it it would maybe rightfully so, but I just don't think these debates are not a good venue for bided. They never had been, even if he has a good strategy and an. I don't particularly disagree that, like being a little more forceful on a more combative, might be after after the fourth place finnish- and I were it- is just not a great debate there. You know I'm I'm nothing. That means you wouldn't make a good

residents but like he's reference in these bills that past thirty years ago, it's hard to follow the thread. A kind of feels like every fourth word gets dropped out of the sentence is just heart the father of any did they did and we need to get a couple of hits in on Sanders on gun for all that I might not be effective. Perhaps your actual use like a relatively gun friendly the amount of financing weird about it. I felt like half a ton there waiting for South Carolina We're not arouse where I am the challenge and one who I think they got three times a two centres from New Hampshire, Maggie Hassen yeah. You know your point about a debate for South They did and of having a lengthy discussion about race. You know, even though, all but gang of the candidates onstage were white people. They

like a pretty wrinkly conversation about raised, I mean how did that did not play to one candidate strength or weaknesses now then applied any a nice like. Nor does it play particularly tiny of our friends, but still, I think, even relative to not expert declaring their strengths into play. Any of their strength right. I'll, even think, like you don't owe me, give a low expectations, did meet expectations. It wasn't very good, but it's ok. So here is my main question. Come out of the debate. Buddha judges strategy seem to be. Ok, I'm gonna get some incoming in this debate. I am largely not gonna hit back. I'm just gonna claim positive. Positive messages. I wrote a high road and talk about being a united one was

good strategy and to how well did he executed. I thought he executed at while I was a pivot, though I think from some of his stronger debate. Performances where he has been more aggressive and his attack of other candidates. Then again, though, in the ass debate, I believe he was particularly harsh on war in at least in our post pool with Epps. Saw a decline in his performance and sue me, Like you know, internally, there like don't, go quite as harsh on her. You have this victory coming. If I were now you're the unified I've, always that he has a great aggressive strategy, though, when debating- and you didn't see that side of him tonight so then maybe the trade offers there's not as many like there was no lake Chris Christie moment, where you the summons, leading into marker Rubio like there, wasn't that level

of animosity. This evening, or just like pointed singers and he's good at that- you mentioned Chris Christy, Margo Rubio moment from two thousand. Sixteen. I do want to ask about how much this debate matters in general for the primary Tuesday, but before we get to that, today's pie cast is brought to you by hymns. Frankly it with a kind of weak that could make you lose your hair or pull your hair out between Iowa impeachment, the state of the EU in this debate. The list goes on. As you may know, there are now options for guys who want to stop their hair from thinning or who want to grow some back hymns can you with a licence doktor online, who will evaluate you and, if appropriate, prescribed finesse dried, which will be shipped directly to your door. Financed ride, isn't FDA, approved daily tablet. The increases the volume and health of your hair, beginning after about three to six months of use its what dermatologists recommend for hair loss and its shown to effective

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Now I got something something we can do what in six minutes both the Emerson College, tracking, poor and the Suffolk Dragon, coal will come out o out, so we have to go at least six minutes and then you're gonna. Try me I'm gonna get with breaking new. We put they did. They did surveys after the debate now come out on them and I think I care about the debate which the working during the days are totally unrelated to the debate. While you could have a few unless what wonder why you would bring it up on a post, a part because its exciting, but joining that point point, though this debate is only four days before the primary and that's the closest. A debate has been to an actual, action. So now the question really comes into play like do these things change people's minds? Have we seen them historic? We shift the numbers

es I mean we're memory mica shaking his head and neck is saying yes, sir. I'm in here handedness disagreement go ahead. Nate do I, May we, you know I've waited Lord a year in this very state. I was ordinary primary four years ago. We must stop Mugger Rubio got humiliated by Christopher Christy. Totally sapping lose momentum from finishing a good third place in Ireland we, but now I cannot tell whether or not you're being sincere. Do you actually vital mode will guide. You think the debates matter. Yes, I think they d, I mean clearly that they can debate. No eight mattered. I mean this year. That is so the debate about manner very much. The first when did we come, arrest that got very high ratings. Just do just that. I've, given you a sum nuance historically, they have, but now

but I don't need no, no wait. A second debate can matter. Ok, it just takes a lot for them to matter so, for example, the Hare calmly Harris Attack on bite in that a wholly moment. I mean in real time we all watching it we're like wow. What a moment right that moved the Poles right, Christy's attack on Rubio was out what is going on moment in real time, daylight date right we were here. We were watching it. We're like this is crazy. Rubio, like stuck on repeat it was like a skipping cd or something, but also have blown up in the neck couple days right and so, and there are, there are self reinforcing a magnifying effect. But, like the point is debates are a forum that if there is a moment that moment combat can matter, is anybody think there was a moment tonight? That's gonna, get repeated

he did and and change a race. That's the thing now. Your point, like Jeff Scully, had actually looked into this further debates this year and right said one in June with Harris, invited that's about like an eight point. Difference in the polls after but all the other ones is one or two point changes I'm unwilling went through October. So maybe you know the one in December January at a bigger movement. But again I just don't think there were these moments that you are talking about. Having happened, why not are the candidate holding back specifically because they think that voters don't want to see them go after each other, like what's goin on here. Its debts are hard question to answer, because I look at the look at the Rubio Christie moment that would like a perfect storm in a lot of ways: ok, Christie. Clearly I was actually in like staging room

arrested- and I almost asked him sort of like about that moment earlier tonight- early tonight- you I didn't for the record- he was eating pizza, so I don't want to interrupt him maybe see my colleague Chris Christie exactly gets pizza who doesn't know Peter. I bet you can find some ok think about that moment. It was like a perfect storm, so one Chrissy clearly had this line of attack. He was prepared for on Rubia right it was it was. It was a tactic they had planned out. Rubio perfectly sets Christie up for the attack in the debate. That's not guaranteed happened right, but he perfectly such Christiana Christie flawlessly executes the attack and

an Rubio like does the same thing. Christy's talk about like five more times. In other words, it was like at any moment in the chain of events. If Rubio had just kind of snap out of it or Christiana loved flood. The attack, then maybe it's not as a dynamic you know what I mean to you know, I got a lot deadly reach that level. So why? But again why it? Just like you only get worse, per cycle. There's something you know the Democrats got. There is in the first debate. You think they're being seriously the attic Madame amicable one thing like sire, certainly awful m o who agree refreshingly lands decades liar. I don't know, what's number one there not that many attacks and attacks are things that tend to create high risk Reward right in the Buddha chats, certainly changed dynamics of warrants campaign I think, and that debate and took it the about Medicare for all that was asking.

On an underlying weakness of our lack of articulation of a clear view on healthcare, but you know, but also like all the cancer fairly consist of bakers, by which I mean not always to good it held by consistently mediocre, but like it's not like like varying radically from from performance to performance or kind of may be placed in a little bit. You know I don't know all so while we wait for these two, pause to come out and to prepare our residing to come out. What are the stakes here? What is the current pulling in New Hampshire and how much has it- did since I guess ruddy yeah Emerson, cows, tracking, pull twenty democratically Sanders. Thirty one percent minus one booty touch twenty four percent plus one

one eleven minus two Biden, eleven no trend club, which are nine no trend. So you know ok, as the other is the other while well, and that was the one that would have a closer. So it is so and ever since Biden has closed the gap refuse me british, because a gap from ninety seven, its use of benefiting call for burning in suffocating they have just one or two points we are waiting. Waiting results are going so why we prepare ourselves again for that. How much has the diner in New Hampshire shifted since Iowa, but a smaller bump in New Hampshire rate, but Sanders still leads in the state, but Post Iowa Buddha Judge has seen, we would all agree like modest games like he hasn't deteriorate, aviary, Hampshire, Wapoota, yet Buddha judge no accident like where we're going about five or six points here right well, in

his you're you're, looking at depends on in our for a dynamic labour conservative for the regional explain a moment here, which is that, because there is a debate, are ever does actually has a lot of time between now and the election and politics time right, cuz. The debate is worth like six days of campaigning. Therefore, it's as though the primary is ten days away, and so therefore it will not get soup some after debate right. If we see bulletin to search continue after the debate, then it would start to pick up on that more than you look just like, Kepler Poles and show four points on our It's right. Our model social, six or seven, because it's like me like well we're going to totally throughout the old data, because it's not time to be super aggressive, you're, saying that the most recent polls show of four point gap between centres and Budapest, but our model shows a five to six point gap. Sixers

but because it is still not throwing at all data that should centres with a huge weed and it will. If we see that trend, continue post debate right, daughter, then it'll say: ok, that's a new normal! Now, four point: but getting a little bit conservative, if you had, if you had to which seems like yeah, it seems like british I've got a modest pump in a modest, but meaningful bump is maybe the way we can. We can all agree to put it in New Hampshire after Iowa. Have you heard about? How would you describe it? If I had a bad thing, Madeira tat about it, there adjective sounds so that our all generally show sander. Ok, oh my god.

Making New Suffolk University Pole surfing, fifth Amy Clover, Chiron fifty six percent, Joe Biden and fourthly, eleven percent Elizabeth Warren, there. Forty percent Bernie Sanders in second place, our mere PETE Buddha judge of South. In Indiana former mayor of southern Indian at twenty five percent, so that's his first, ok, actually new post. I was so so that's dat, something that policy generally pulse have shown Sanders leading in New Hampshire, a handful percentage points above of Buddha Judge whose there's a wide gap between british judge and war in San abide in his opinion,

Warren and clever to write. Things are moving so fast in these days that I do wonder a little bit if it gets to what they were saying about model if the kind of poles haven't caught up with the Buddha Judge, the butter recalling the big judgment them, the Buddha judge from the Buddha Judge bump where I I it always very like trying to predict, which way the possible move is kind of a game. Nevertheless, I I hide her sister. I nevertheless resources to try to guess how the Poles would move. I do kind of think that you know over the next few days were Polly, we'll see butchered climb into a tie or thereabouts with Sanders. You can replay this when I'm when I'm wrong, I don't you take for granted for sure? Why aren't you can't another? My knees, prognosticate man argued Here- is about getting the results. The satellite carcasses and how that really helped Sanders.

Printed at that point so the media narrative it already been that Buddha judge one I'll right of his lead on the state delegate, equivalence. Now that we have that data x, I these, It was probably were in the field before we got that on Thursday, may I once again so

if that adjusts now or if it's already been said, that no both Buddha judging Sanders, one iota included, judge, gets all the benefit or, if it kind of Vienna recalibrate since, like actually Sanders did really well, and you get more of the credit and now to be clear about like what the facts are at the moment, Buddha Judge currently in the reporting still leads in state delegate equivalents by a tiny, tiny, tiny march. I would, I would just called a type the the who knows. Ultimately, the sample size is too small, but my my assumption would be that what happened in when he twelve would happen again. So twenty twelve, when Mitt Romney was declared the winner of our pockets, is on election night and then send torn was declared the winner like two weeks later correct me. If I'm wrong, but like Centaur didn't get there wasn't like a retroactive right. There wasn't a correction to the record or anything like that in terms of the polling. So

think booted, judge kind of like got the cat got the moment you can. I can't go back, you know are well. I think we can leave the Prognosticated here, because we actually have a lie show in just two days. We will be able to update everyone like where the race stands in New Hampshire. So look for that in your deeds on Monday, but I think that's it for now already away these so called at the life. Oh yeah, very cold in and and as I mentioned at the beginning, if you're listening to this, try watching this. If you, if you listen to this and not watching, You don't know what I'm doing right now. Wouldn't you like to know Billy Curlew many animal doing right now is really very real. Alienate creeping. Ok, I always you always sneak in this. Where were the times are like hard for me, the added the now as best

We're doing these in a late night pods, I'm like ok, we gotta get it up soon and then the listeners love it. So you know cursing yeah, really, oh they dossier for sure anyway. Thank you, mate. Thank you, Galen! Thank you mica. Would you forget it? sometimes different, I dont forget it. I'm we're about those forgetting, like friends, like spouses and in kids in like dogs me all right all right, thank scale and beg you, Sir scale in my name is Galen drooped, me Chow, Anna Rothschild and Kevin Rider are here at taping with us. You can get in touch my emailing us at par concept, five, thirty dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If you're, a vein of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store tell someone about us actually telephoned tell your what's. Your friends spouse you really are about dog, forgetting your friends then another like. Ok, thanks for listening and we'll see you soon

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