Hello, and welcome to the to do politics. Plot against politics knew in drink. I need silver and this. Is model sock, whoop, bit less enthusiasm than usual. It's been a few weeks ago. We ve gotten together to dig into the details of the presidential forecast, and we also just got a whole bunch of new pulling listeners also have a lot of questions, so organ did through dig through it all now's. The time as a Thursday afternoon, the forecast shows Biden with about a seventy percent chance of winning and Trump with a thirty percent chance and our national pulling average shows Biden leading Trump by seven point three points. Sunni. On Monday, we said that we didn't have enough recent paulding to fully characterize the race. Since the convent

and and the violence in Canosa and Portland. What did we learn from the most recent slate of polling? There were almost twenty different national poles. I believe that have been released and the conventions, and so there's a lot of data and they show that Trump did not get much of a balance. Maybe a little bounce, so Trump is currently behind by seven point three. He was behind by eight point four before either convention by moved up a tiny bit, and then it shifted back a bit toward trumpet call compass, maybe a point closer to Biden nationally than he was before, roughly seven and one slash two instead of eight and one slash two and have only gained a point after your convention, When you're down eight a half is like not great, we ve seen pass emissions where you in two thousand and eight John Mccain

european briefly pulled into a tie with a bummer after their convention in twenty. Sixteen Hillary Clinton got a pretty big bout. Some her commission went from like a free point, led to live seven point we. So this is really on a low end as far as a commission that shook up the race nodded direction and how has that affected are forecast model, if at all, not very such in part, because our model number one kind, built in, and adjustment for, the convention bounds and also a kind of hedges a bit. I'm someone explain each one. We adjust works for the commission's historically and trying to guess how basic much about will be but I ve gotten smaller and smaller overtime with increase partnership. We also so. Much for this year is one of the things that you have to make an educated guess about that, because of the virtual, nature of the conventions that you might not have traditional typical convention bounce so

we just said well, it's kind of halfway between a real common. And not, and therefore we can assume that much about to be path as large as before. So how big of about did the forecast assume that that's my gatt, so the model assumed it would bounce. If you start at eight, it would abounds up to around ten four Biden and then followed like seven so actually very close to what sound get year by did not quite get to turn the up to nine point. Something but so just kind of this gas that there would be a kind of half convention about seemed about right. The Oracle got it right, I mean sometimes, but in any case so the forecast more or less saw this coming. So does the forecasts not chain, as a result of that basically yeah bindings bounce was like a little bit smaller than it bought and so deep down a little

when Biden got maybe half a pointer appoint only in the pulling average, but then it wound up in same place? It expected it to wind up some kind of minister, all pretty small shares right. They went from like by net. Seventy two percent to sixty seven percent, not back up to seventy percent or something pending constantly arriving new poles, and even if it had gone like seventy two to sixty seven and stay there, we're not talking about a major change, but from what I understand the forecast basically says we expect the candidates to get a convention bouts, and so we're not going to take that into consideration in terms of coup, ultimately is likely to win unless it's a durable bout. So it has to wait. Maybe two weeks or something like that. To show that the movement in the polls is real and not just a fleeting effect. So there are kind of two defence mechanisms at the model. Has wine is,

to adjust the poles for the anticipated convention balance, which is what we been talking about and two is to just hedge right. We're basically says here: it is shot that we had before the day and see and we're going to you, that snapshot as part of our forecasts. Even though we have newer data because actually the commission sometimes Poles change it and revert back to where they were before us that use some of the old preconception polling average in this case again kind of the the average and the new adjusted average kind of wines up being the same right as if it says. Ok, trumps minor? Seven point three. We are just at eight point three and the previous average is eight point four ripe. It can does matter what the formula it was anyway, but then asked serve as a hedge, that other hedge by the way will also apply after the debates? So if Trump has a great first debate,

and all of a sudden, the pulling average goes from Biden plus eight to Biden plus four. Then the motto will hedge a little bit, not it's on, but a little bit in it knows that gain trap has made, has been more sustained, so we ve gotten limited state public, but in particular on Monmouth Paul from Pennsylvania came out yesterday, showing Biden led down to three points. There are average, shows him leading by around four points in the state and given that our forecast at this point sees Pennsylvania as being the likely a state to be the tipping point. What does that say about the expected popular? the electoral college gap at this point in time at the beginning of September, so I think it's always a mistake to focus on anyone pole in general, he's gotten some, let's stay column, good, but knack rate state pole, to get a good for him, set of state poles and North Carolina

Arizona and Wisconsin from Fox NEWS. An ok result from my mother, North Carolina in this frankly pretty mediocre pillar from moment in Pennsylvania, mammoths media, claiming that wanna be up more than two points. Among likely, voters would have the pull hasn't it's pretty close by it is. One slash four hundred person pole in the totality of data. It's a little perplexing. That Biden keeps getting these kind of mediocre polls in Pennsylvania and then pretty good polls in Wisconsin. You would think that Wisconsin will be the hardest state to win back, but you know the polling continues: show Wisconsin having a larger bite in March in the pets yeah, but look the reason why Trump has a thirty percent chance and not a fifteen percent chance for a ten percent chance is because the electoral college there is still a pretty big gap between where the tipping point states or Poland. And where the popular vote is right, so you see Biden with leads of cot. Forty six points that have been points

versus seven and a half points in our national average. That's pretty different right if it's really like it or a five or maybe a six point rays, then trumps done out of it from could win that from doing well debate. And then maybe the poles little bit off, and then you have a second. For President Trump, and so the electoral college is so important. I can't do that mental math and you can be like ok well binds. Seven or eight it's like bigger than Well, to break Obama's margin, that's like Bush over Dukakis, roughly pretty close to it, not far from rig Ricardo was nine point, seven points or something right, but still, while a eight point win be a blow out a landslide by most people's terminology. All of a sudden at five points It's a competitive, raise because electoral college right there scenarios whereby could win the popular vote by four and a half point

and still Lucy electoral College. After about five point, two becomes mathematically more difficult, although not impossible, but you know that's keeping trump with much

livelier odds and he would have otherwise. Yet it seems like there's a thin line between what's a blow out and what is a tight race, given what we are seeing in the way of Tor College. I want to read the numbers that you posted yesterday in terms of what percent Chance Biden has of winning given his national pulling me she's at Biden leading zero to one point, has just a six percent chance of winning the Electoral college, one to two points: a twenty two percent chance of winning the electoral college, two to three point: forty six percent chance so still below a majority chance three to four points as where he gets a seventy four percent chance of winning the electoral college. Forty five point: eighty nine percent chance five to six point: ninety eight percent chance and it goes up from there, and so it really that divide. You see between maybe three points to five points where you go from its really tight re. Slash Biden is not favoured necessarily to win to all this

You could have something looking like a landslide in the electoral college. Why? It's actually is that? Can we tease out that the line between the tight ways and the electoral blow out? So, let's look at it this way right now, Abiden is leading international pulling average by seven point three points, which is the margin of seven point: two wars in point: three: did Obama beat Mccain by in two thousand eight, so well, look it is to say, where is by doing better than Obama, because my definition, mathematically, the place, where he's not doing better here we doing worse to kind of contract that so one group of states by doing better is very blue states. He is ahead nor California pulling average by like thirty two points. Instead of twenty five he's ahead, I messed used by like thirty, three point: instead of twenty five New Jersey in Connecticut Maryland Wash,

Instead I will set us a longer at fifteen point Lee, but a twentysomething point lead. You know. Twenty five or thirty China could really are and really blew states where Democrats are winning by dance margins that helps them not at all electoral college, so kind of wasted, votes, the other member states we're buying, is doing better, is kind of in the sunbelt, so by will almost certainly be better than Obama in Texas. See may win taxes. It's pretty close. You know by I will do better than actually about it. Okay in Georgia, I think, but you know, Biden will very likely do better than Obama in Arizona. For example, you know George Office is trending more purple with those stone, actually help Biden all that much either. Lest they actually become what we call the tipping point state. So you know again Texas. Very compared, and it would not be surprised if Joe Biden wins. Texas, Our model has trump as a slight nuclear favorite there some other models to, but if by Texas, he's probably already one

Arizona and Florida and North Carolina, and so it's not at the tipping point right. It's superfluous now of Texas shifts further. In a couple of years, then that becomes more of a problem for Republicans and you start to erode the correct. The current electoral college advantage they have, but like a vote in Texas, Is actually less important than a vote in the average state model figure it's more important vote in New York or Russia in DC by. There are a lot of people there. It's not very good return on investment, although it's better than it used to be so, basically other also buttons gaining it's a small thing. Democrats gain ground with Mormon, so you make up make upload round and like

time, Idaho UK, when those states, though probably enter with something like Biden, has to win by say three or four points in order to hold the MID west, but then all the sun, if he's winning by six or seven points, he's passed the point where its closing he's actually winning some of those sunbelt state. Which put him into something like blowout territory. Yeah I mean it six or seven or eight. That's when you start to win and North Carolina Arizona. You probably already one at that point, because here too in Georgia, North Carolina Texas, might also win back Ohio in Iowa, so yeah a bunch of states and are like pulling currently with by with the seventh point, national leaders somewhere between biden-

to North Carolina did trap plus two in Iowa that whole group, if Biden in our beaches, poles like other points that help through probably goes Biden and all of a sudden. You have a really impressive looking map, but they're not really tipping. Point states, except maybe North Carolina, come on the fringe. We focused on the appalling here when it comes to the fundamentals in terms of the economy or the trajectory of covert cases. How is that shaping our forecast at the moment covered cases themselves only her model on a very indirect way, having do it, how the states are correlated so leave aside for now. The economic news has generally been pretty decent relative to this. Obviously unprecedented downturn that we took when the economy closed under covered, but yeah wanting itself

Tromp in our forecast is that our model assumes that the race will tighten because economic conditions will not necessarily that bad by November is a job support coming out on fire, morning that you may know the results about the time. You listen you this. You know that will figure into our forecasts the stock market figures into our forecast right, but in general If he were assuming that you're going to have some type of typical recession, We had a slump that last four months or years. That's that what's happening, You're right, you don't usually at this kind of very sharp optic. Just a couple of months. Late and so we think, by the way, if you look at approval raining poles or carbon economy whose numbers are pretty decent. Like forty, nine percent approve forty eight percent disapproves of like that. So we think that the economy is. Perversely, me

be more a strength for a trump than a weakness that voters by the argument that, like things, you're going grape until covered came along, they may blamed Trump. We're not handling covered. Well, it's one reason why he's down several points, but they buy, is excuse that cobra does that of indictment of its economic management per se. Also, member p, We got a lot of money in their pockets back in the spring that it's starting to wear off. I could have an effect potentially, but if you do people money

need some case were making more income and they had before. Then that will affect economic perceptions as well are I want to go to some lessen our questions, but first we have been inundated by questions from listeners, lots of really fantastic Russians and we're gonna get to as many as we can, but, of course, will be back with more model talk in the future. So if we don't get to your question today, I hope we will get to it in the future and given that world try to keep these answers relatively concise. But let's start with cress who asks what would the now cast our IP say today? Essentially, the now cast was our forecasts that to say basically what the model, what project, if the elections were happening right now, so essentially, if the union were to Morrow Night, what would our forecasts I dont know because you put the now, ass in kind of a broom closet and don't talk to it anymore. I I would thank you will be in the vicinity of

and being at ninety percent to win the electoral college. Something like that. I mean look. A seven and a half point led even given the possibility of here, an terms. Electoral college of image, seven and half point lead in national poles on election day is reasonably solid, it's not rock solid, but if binding is up by some have points on November. Second, we're doing the less version of my talk right and if we say There cannot be a pretty big Capone screw up or electoral college. I was going to have to fall just right for Trump and its possible a one in ten chance, wouldn't be nothing decently high, but that's more the realm of you're getting a little bit more on the tale. Speaking of polling errors, we got a question from a reporter who ass, if their name not be years, but I'm so happy that we got a question from a reporter and the question is: can you explain waiting by education? How is waiting by education factored into the current polls that were seen?

so back up a little bit here. One dirty little secret about polling is that if you just like kind of random, I call people on the phone. You will not get through random sample. Women are more likely. It's the phone than men people more than younger people, white people. Then black and hispanic people so You have to wait. You're pole to population demographics. So basically say: ok, We know. We only got five percent of black people in a state where they're going to be one thousand two hundred and ten to turn us. Therefore, let's count every black person two and a half times right. It's going to be a see. What happens one of the variables that also kind of which is who answers upon who doesn't is based, I kind of Is consumption and education levels, If you are more highly educated, you read a news you more likely to be interested in taking a survey you're also bit we're lucky that turn out to vote. But still there is a

bias in poles tour people who are more. Are bigger news, consumers, more educated, since it having a college education, the education of life might be different, but you know have more formal education, and it used to be that education was not very predictive of which part of your vote for but now it is where the more educated people vote democratic primary early. So if you don't wait, recent education or some axiom education. Then you risk having to me Democrats in your sample. Many pollsters due weight for education. Now they are kind of a few did beforehand, You were made aware of it by twenty six seen some other pollsters do not wait for education, but other mechanisms they used to try to avoid the buyers they could be introduced by not doing that and then a few pulsars, our kind of oblivious

are doing what they always did. Probably at the risk of overrating Democrats again now is this region think that there would be a democratic bias in the polls. I don't necessarily. So one reason. Why is that you may have some pulsars that kind of wind up over and sailing in the other direction, so they were correctly way for action but people who also use like a really different likely vote screen that actually isn't helpful and theirs well, we gonna make sure we're not under a trump again so so they do three things: when the need to do one thing and wind up missing a direction there, Also rightly like some automated poles, ivy. Ve are poles that are varied, dodgy methodological e, some of them don't call cellphones, there's one pulsar, preferring to give it a try make a shy trump voter adjustment, which is very dodgy so, be a case of like you have a few straggle

live collar poles, but don't think about education thing and you have a few spamming. Be rubber polls that our kind of republican, leaning in don't even bother to fix that and I need Winesap cancel account and the fall of question here was: does this have any relationship to shy trump voters, and I think the answer here is no waiting by education- takes care of people in the population who are difficult for posters to reach. Where is shy? Trump voters usually refers to people who support trump but are actually unwilling to tell pollsters that right. I mean the notion that like like, if you actually just randomly dialed numbers and made no demographic waiting whatsoever. You probably wind up with their really Trump sample

like a lot of all why people who sit by their phone younger people are hard to get on the phone. Even if you make repeated contact right but like older people with landlines are more likely to its just kind of been how you should be in this country right, the phone you answer, strangers phone call, so it's not a matter of shy per se rights matter of like there. Different biases and you get on the phone and uniform ones perfectly honest there you're not gonna, get a totally truly random all you have to do several things, try to wait, you're sample too true population demographics and just to get us out of the way, because people have been curious. Is there any reason to expect that respondents wouldn't be honest with posters particularly there is some evidence of social desire. Only by a swear, if you believe something which you think that,

Frazier on the phone might be offended by that? You might not say it, but generally speaking, people aren't embarrassed The presidential choices they are happy to talk about them. And you know so- was a big theory that, like in two thousand eight dollars people would say they were voting for Obama, but wooden we're racists, but they didn't want it They mean to this pollster We thought okay, this person, second above the after American and Obama, kind of hit his pole spot on actually outperform them a bit right, I was kind of one example of socialism. Billy, biased, not actually having an effect mean part of. What's weird is like number one, the idea that, like Trump are shy. I know I have That's some from voters. I think their people, shy about their phantom for tromp. If any There may be more demonstrative about it, so maybe there shy Biden, voters also The idea of like ok,

Go ahead and take This pole in and lighted pollster, but then you gonna, give you as you know, in the voting through them, and it just like not actually much evidence for this. We have also looked at because U S! It's a small sample right! You haven't had a candid like crop before international though there have been many nationalist parties throughout Europe, for example, if look at all the Poles of Europe involving right. Nationalist racial identity, politics parties, they do not any better than polls show emails, this kind of constant myth. But others right Wing Party in Germany or Denmark Gonna beat their poles. You know it's just not true over a pretty large sample, one other two is like a lot of posting. We're not done. By the phone anyway, there don't online are you also knocking reveal you're real pension online right and there's not much of a gap between

the online poles say and what the telephone poles say. So The shy trump border theory is under but insists under theorize kind of pain, so weird view of trump supporters, I don't think really kind of matches any. Dollar empirical evidence and, although, We need to be very aware of the possibility of systematic, pulling error, meaning the poles or offer the same direction in every state, or the swings AIDS, the assumption that has been much more robust over time. Isn't that can go in either direction? It's absolutely possible that wake up on Luxembourg, and trumpeters poles, and once again right it s actually possible that, like we, wake up and the actual action right and Biden has won by twelve points. Instead of eight one South Carolina or something and we're like what the hell was that, and it turns out that maybe holsters we're doing enough to capture blacker.

Ethnic voters, writer, maybe they were kind of being very care because a twenty sixteen and actually went up over compensating right. So I don't know if you come up and talk to me about shy trump voters, as a thing as opposed to one of many possible hypotheses. But if you're like a well functioning as a shy trump odors, I tend to think that you have a sophomore act. View of elections, where you re just enough to think that you have some proprietary now, if you dont, actually read the really an actual people who have looked at this very carefully and said, there's not really much evidence that it's a thing. Let's get onto a more eleven our questions, the next one it is. Do you ever worry that the models tales might be too fat and the persons are some of the edge case,

our pretty far out there. We don't multiple questions about this. One person noted that there is a variation on our forecasts homepage where New Jersey goes for tromp and then every other state goes for by and because we show some of the examples that the forecasts simulates and so essentially, people just want to know like w e F is up with some of those cases I know about the New Jersey, one I mean in developing. We actually had like a bug. We're like one in every one, in a thousand simulations like blue state would become red so that New Jersey, when sounds weird but all the other stuff is, is very deliberate so number one it used to be. That was pretty hard to predict how things would shake out state to state Now, since, like two thousand onwards, twin succeed had kind of the same map, but you know that actually a bit unusual, historically

and we want our model to be robust. Two different regime changes right some year. There's gonna be a realignment. It maybe not be detected ahead of time. And so we need our model to be robust, said not just make, if you assume, if you assume ok, calibrate our model off of two thousand and sixteen the states are very predicted oh and the poles are pretty You had some issues in TWAIN. Sixteen, obviously right, if you calibrated off just the recent data there may be Trump would be eighty five percent to lose or something instead of seventy percent. But we know that it's a good idea right! It's very small sample number one number two we are living in somewhat unprecedented conditions and it's true So far the pulse of unstable and if the poles remained seem, like a said Biden chance, probably go up to eighty five, ninety ninety two percent, or something but we think especially before the conventions

a bit less. So now it's hard to meet human presumptions about what things will look like in the mechanics goes headset let's all the data we have right, we have national Post one thirty, six in state Paul's, Winnetka, nineteen. Seventy, two or seventy six right. You know if you can all the data we have, then it would compel you to be a little bit cautious again like it's also like, because you big national leave. That Biden has only buttons only ahead by by three or four points projected not the poignant for projected in the tipping point states right if the model expects the race to tighten by a pointer. So then, all of a sudden, these up, you know four or five. It becomes three or four so to say. Ok, a three or four point Dave projected election day. Margin on September early September has about a sin. Some chance of holding up that's what you get empirically

The way we do our model. I think intuitively that, like that kind of holds up between the puzzle, things. Change further interrupts direction and pulling your election day right about us having sex set by wind seemed like a pretty reasonable answer. So our next question comes from Chloe who actually went to college with so shut out declared she asked what is needs biggest concern about the model, and then we got a similar question. That was, what do you think? Is the models biggest shortcoming. Another way to put it might be, if you had unlimited time and resources, what would you change about the model, and I have some concerns about it. As I sleep confident. Well, I mean ok, you wanna be honest, like you can kind of, like no other then I remember before the model has were kind of pulling back the curtain a little bit right. There's a humongous amount. Running room, The model has between.

On the one hand like predict, market, to have the races toss up, which is ridiculous, and other hand. Other models that have binding eighty five and eighty percent, which we think is maybe not ridiculous but, like we dont, believe, reflects modeling best practices and we believe, reflects the kind of environment it somewhat like a conditional I guess we're if you're a process. That is true, but these are the things then ok can see how to get there, but we know about those things in advance. In an environment where you have a seat. Sample size taking place in unprecedented, and by the way we know them weren't, so accurate and twelve. Sixteen either right. You didn't okay, now you're going to solve the riddle. Well, ok, how come you had this mediocre performance for the poles and projections and twenty? Sixteen, not necessarily a great fact. So like so, but a lot of running remain there and a lot of run out and we're, like you concerned about your forecast hasn't make concerned. Actually less concerned right because, like

because what the question was? What are you most concerned about? Not what are you least concerned about? I'm not really. That concern I mean I'm concerned for the actual election itself, I'm concerned for what happens if you have a close result and its dispute or not so first result in Trump refused to concede. What? If there is some big snafu with male balloting, we do try to account, for some of that, we do look at like mean we're, assuming that turn out, and therefore the margins are less predict bull because covered and male voting- but I don't know- I mean I would not. I don't think the model is the most important thing for the country right now, a meme aggregates friend I've. Let's move on, I want to get too some rapid fire question. So in a word or a sentence, let's run through these questions. Does the model account for combing letter like events or

their unforeseeable October surprises sure, yeah mean the commie letter is kind of a nor Well, I cover surprise and, like look Ordinary news events is even so. Extraordinarily, these events is part of it that binds at seventy and not and not higher right now. Next question comes from worry: does the model run every x amount of hours or when there's a new set of poles? How free he doesn't refresh. It runs whenever we enter a new pole and then it also will run at seven p m every night, just to make sure it's one at least once per day. But now there said proposed today It runs constantly, in other also other inputs like, technically speaking, every tick of the ESA. Ninety five hundred technically affects the model that we do update it for economic data alone. Let us all major variable that has been updated. So monsieur running it eight or ten times,

Dave were entering in a new plus once for the early evening crowd next question, which state is most likely to flip from Democrats to Republicans and a scenario where bite and wins the presidency. I'm guessing New Hampshire in Minnesota. A crack yeah, because you can, you know they were pretty close last time and binding can to lose New Hampshire in Minnesota rashly, let me take it back. I think probably see ticket for the most are New Hampshire and Nevada. Because the matter is kind of like a one off right, because the exact math and if by any kind of winds back Those western states and he can afford to lose. I think it is that or New Hampshire, but not both. There are some maps of producer to sixty nine to ties. Down to like does he also win? Can rest six in Maine and Nebraska, but yet You have to worry about our weird states in that they're kind of March, their own drummer, a bit Minnesota if by

loses Minnesota then well did he was constant, then did anyone Michigan? it's loaded, I see a right, that's a case in which, like the sun Bout ended up being super strong forbidden, the poles were pretty mismatched in expecting that than the upper Midwest would be closer than the sunbelt right, then that there be a pretty sharper brutal. Yet I next question: where would you most like to see new poles from right? Now I mean we just got a lot of new poles, but This is our particular state that you want to see Poland from I looked system like articles in Minnesota. Nevada, I mean a thing: is we actually mean it's kind of the chronic issue now right? It's kind of a chronic lack of of high quality, staples periods never like you even get to appoint. Now we're like like there are five highquality pulls the state I feel saturated. I would still take more power. Pennsylvania Florida just because they are so important to our model. Everywhere, really

I was gonna say: oh, we fund to see a pole of kind of Texas in the year. There been fewer recently but like Texas is actually not like to be the tipping point said so maybe it matters a bit less but I don't know I mean we actually have like it for numerous oppose Pennsylvania. Just kind of like is such an important stay and it's kind of

Hilda me hard to reconcile. Why binding like doing surprisingly well, it was concerned, and not very well in Pennsylvania, just kind of weird, but if there were one either to such a request, I say Minnesota and Nevada. Nevada. Next question is: how are you considering the impact of third party candidates in the forecast, and I was just looking at the forecast from two thousand sixteen other day we actually had Gary Johnson listed with his chances of winning the electoral college. Of course it was very low, but people who are looking for work ass this I can tell that we're not projecting the odds of a libertarian or green party candidate waiting. The electoral college is Dela factoring the forecast not exactly we have what we call a named third party can a right, which is if a Canada is pulling if they're a pulling it in

single budget nationally b, our, including most poles and see our on the ballot in most or all states there and we will model them explicitly, Gary Johnson metals arterial s time around. Nobody does this year so the matter will reserve some vote for other candidates, but it doesn't do anything purely fancy with that no keep the mind. If a libertarian can aid or country western areas on the ballot in certain states, then a pollster can ask about them, and so, if Can you must be in the balance we stay. Hurts bind by a point which, I think is by the way is far from clear, could be it away. Then they would have by sending the poles and so therefore the model, but account for that implicitly. But you know their party, Canada or not factor this year by the way they are also not like any really highly relative.

Third party carrots and risks for Congress you're either. Would you ever consider making the model opensource? I know the answer to this is no because this is how now makes his money come on guys I mean we, so we try very methodology provide all the inputs to the models, fight, all the outputs right, you can, let's be perfectly honest, rape. There are people that have reverse engineered versions of the five thirty eight model without having the code, but now I'm in the code is quotas, proprietary. Last question here when the House and Senate forecasts coming out they're coming soon, I'm kind of finishing up a initial version of them today. So when you by the House and Senate is like there is like two types of data that we use the House and Senate model in some ways. It too much more like rich data. Big data exercise,

in the presidential election, where you just have twelve examples, right Paris for Congress, you have like four hundred Seventy races every year, which are somewhat if more another right, what's information you can, use, and so it takes a while to like surely wrangle the data. We do a couple of things to me. What we really want turn meter model. Eighteen perform really well and we designed a pretty carefully so a pretty carefully. So we're not making a lot of changes there. A with of things, respect like how the mild years with house effects and a polling averages, maybe accounting for the effects of partisanship a bit more effectively there a couple of things around the margin where we may introduce some changes, but they'll be will be pretty mine. Will also assume for Congress. As for the presidency, it is a little bit more so for air on election day because of Kuwait and male voting. On more, but like makes things a little bit more aircraft and I'll say we did get a number of questions about, for example,

five, a fox, the new bottle carrier that helps five. If you really understand the forecast, we also got questions about the presentation and general. Why there's no map this year? Things like that and I actually want to have a special model, talk episode where we bring on some of the five thirty eaters who helped design the forecast and weaken kind of talk through some of those questions, then, but I have heard your questions and we want we will get to them in due time. Our final comment, though, comes from Keenan Keenan says people should stop hating. I need to underline midcentury modern masterpiece, so there is a lot in common, you think you can- and I appreciate it- it's not underlined its lit for people living in the house right, it's lit for people who want to be looking outside right. It's not lit for four podcast television channels for Youtube, fair enough people check. You got designed our houses,

that their well wait for you to vary as it happens. I really looking forward to when you have our design interactive people on. I think, philosophically, twenty twenty is a weird election, writes a weird. It's a weird time we create an election forecast and so many civilisations that are a bit more kind of unexpected and surprising. And a lot more kind of non linear right like that is intentional to some extent you know what I mean. Basically, we wanted to reflect the chaos twenty twenty. In our forecasts, we really it's been simplified. Actually, I think right yeah, but a little bit more excellent. Moreover, through lying the forecast then kinds being dashboard and we might back to more of a desperate looking twenty twenty two and it's a mid term in a friendly, the viewers, we for mid term elections are our different there much winters,

EL, the detail, midterms themselves cells are more detailed right by the way. If you dont know, if you go down in our forecasts and you can see a section called like it says low data ripe and your several dish, no files that includes more detailed data. Then we published on the interactive and we're adding we're file so that all the time so some the info that, like that hard core users, wanted it still there, but it's in a place where you can download nice Csp file with all that in in fact I'll be up for going back, so I will keep adding to that. Still at we are going to add a few more elements keep in mind. This is like the first time ever where we tried to forecast the presidency, the house, and the Senate, In the same year. Frankly, it looks like it. Maybe bit anticlimactic because based on initial Turning to the house models wells, anybody else's house model in the expert forecasters and what not the house does not look super comparative, but we

trying to give you everything this year were stepping governors races, sorry, sorry, Indiana North Carolina, the weird states you know for Martin after you have heard, every two year. He now, whatever sorry rotten, Hampshire, Naga Pretoria forecasts this year, but we are doing everything else, while clearly you're very busy, considering everything I have just mentioned, so I will leave it there. Thank you may think again in my name is Galen jerk Tony Chow isn't a virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at podcast that five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. We will have future model talk. Episodes if your questions warrant answered this time around. You know email them again, retweet them, etc. If you're, a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple pie cast store

or tell someone about us also subscribed to five hundred and thirty eight on Youtube. Thanks for listening and will see you soon,