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now it's gonna be manifold right and then the welcome to the five thirty Jody african one political emergencies happen on Monday mornings. We don't have to do an emergency podcasts. We can just do a regular show how convenient we are recording this at noon. On Monday and just morning we had a three alarm political development, maybe four alarm, five alarm twelve alarm will find out. Let me alarm, I thought I was short alarms. I thought when the manifold thing came out, that was like two alarms. You know when people expecting three or four alarms, but with this other gentleman Papadopoulos, is that right. Papadopoulos I was, I had the misfortune, being the first one to say this. So obviously not someone who is highly visible the campaign, but I will talk about that- would interpret

many hours, the alarms for area a lot yeah. It went from being, I think, a little over played before then. We can talk again about the context, but yeah. That's that's a big It's so for context, and then I will say hi to all these all these voices. Your hearing here is what we know now recording at one thousand two hundred and fifteen. On Monday, former Trump campaign Chairman Paul Manafort, has been indicted on twelve charges as part of special counsel. Robert Muller investigation Manafort turned himself into the F, yeah this morning, along with his business partner, Rick Gates, who was also indicted. We will get into this. But the indictment focused on his lobbying work in Ukraine and what prosecutors said was a scheme to hide money from tax collectors in the public, with no explicit mention of Trump or the campaign in that and but then, as you heard mates over just kind of mention, while everyone was parsing this man a fort gates, news prosecutors, all revealed that George Papadopoulos.

Who was an early foreign policy advisor to the Trump campaign, had pled guilty back in early October to the FBI about contact with a russian professor who ties to Kremlin offices, so they are a much more sort of direct connection between the Trump campaign and russian visuals. I will add here that metaphor, the presumed innocent Apob levels has pled guilty. Nevertheless, a big development on two fronts are pal. Malone is traveling today missing out on all this hubbub, but today, with us is editor in chief mates over who you I heard from a little bit hello Nate. Thank you for your feedback. Press, the back from vacation, we missed you, which could have internet here as well. Political writer, hello, Harry hello and on the phone is contributor. Julia Azari, professor of political science at Marquette University, and realize the bringer of historical context, which I think we need today Julia. So thank you and welcome back to the show thanks so much,

and I will say that later on in the show we're going to be joined by our colleague, Perry Bacon, Junior, to discuss how Washington and Congress are responding to this news, but Nate just to sort of take a step back. We've done this thought exercise the number of times on this podcast. I might be useful right now, if, in a history book fifty years from now, the Trump ERA Administration is reduced. To two paragraphs does today get a mention in two paragraphs. Maybe not, I think it's more like the start of a new phase of the process. I think it's far from certain how that process will turn out like, I think, if you look at the overall nexus between Trump Slash, Russia, Slash collusion, class obstruction of justice, the biggest event so far was simply when Trump fired the FBI director, the second biggest. I

INC, is probably the news of the Trump Junior meeting with Russia, because that was pretty solidly reported and in many ways admitted to buy from junior desire to collude. I think it's probably three, which makes it a pretty major star. So what's important right, what's important here, I think in the long run, is the fact that Papadopoulos has pled guilty that's relevant and also that he seems to have talked an awful lot with Miller and other people in the government that there are these people like senior campaign official in capital. Letters named in the document that there are ten Chile damning communications where they say well we want to. You know we want to send these little of the guys his communication not clear. It's because they're directing the desire to collude or because I just want wash their hands of all these weirdos right, but like that's, potentially pretty bad and also that Manta for it now in custody. Enormous amounts of his property has been see used his finances

a mass, and so he might have an incentive to cooperate with the government to, So that could be the long run impact right now you have the people in place to take it from smoked a fire. I don't think in today's allegations- or I guess admitted accusations and pop it up in this case. I don't think that itself is fire, because I think he's a little too peripheral and manafort more central, no denying that those are all about financial dealings and tax fraud and failing to disclose it's not about the campaign itself right. So it's kind of like two halves and I don't know if they today make a whole but they give Miller a lot more to work with yeah, potentially Julie, as an opening move by the Muller investigation. How did this strike you? I had kind of told myself yesterday that this is most likely going to be much smaller fish with less name recognition.

Someone like man for and obviously I was wrong. Luckily, I'm used to that playing after the last year and a half or so. I think that it it gets us back in the new cycle one of the things I've been thinking about. It is how much I was writing and thinking about all this stuff over the summer and then it's kind of faded away with you know, with public policy and with the other tweets and and the NFL all this other stuff and to me you know I'm still kind of thinking about this. So these are my very first thoughts, but I just read the indictment and it strikes me in some ways as a as a fairly political. Document in the sense that it really emphasizes the role of a man of war and dates as I'm registered lobbyists. That word comes up quite a lot enough to really politically Loaded word. I know it's also. You know it's a technical word, and this is a legal document, but it's you know it strikes me so far. This morning is a fairly politically impactful thing to have someone at such a

level being indicted, even though it's not as Nate pointed directly related to the to the campaign, it's interesting because 'cause you do see people to that point, kind of down and saying well, look. This is about Manafort's personal business deal years ago, Donald Trump tweeted and said show about a guy from years ago. But you see it as a document in this way here in the tea leaves of this is really wow. I I I I think you know Nathaniel pointed this out. I believe on our live blog and within our internal communications, as if it had just been mana for it, and that was the only thing that come down a man of fourteen gates. Then you could have said hey. This is just has to do. A business dealings has nothing to do with the Trump campaign, but then, when you get the news that Papadopoulos has pleaded guilty that in itself kind of brings it back to. I think, just as I got opening salvo from from, but it is more of a set because this Papadopoulos plea deal was reached earlier this month, Albert First week of October,

Remember October, fifth at Tober Fit so the fact that he weights three weeks and issues that today seems to indicate that it's a little bit of a warning shot to trump in the way. Mouse and to some extent, to campaign reporters, because if you have an indictment for mammoth and literally all the pdf isn't searchable, the word Trump did not appear in that. I don't think I don't believe it did either. I created a searchable pdf from this and the Congress by the way, right 'cause, you can say maybe legitimately like you know. I think this is pretty serious crime number glad you found it, but like it's, not your job Muller to go, investigate any contact by Trump campaign, which is any kind kind of my background. That focus is Trump and Russia and obstruction of justice related to that right, and so it's like

kind of saying, a signal that, like look metaphor for some other serious crimes for like this, all those tie back to the investigation, and you know because he doesn't like a lot Muller now ask only certainly he can kind of like commute Kate, it's like what's that movie arrival or whatever but you're like sending weird signals right. The molar signal is like so keep focus, because this is ultimately going to turn back on trump and so just to be very clear here. The shot is basically by doing these two things. At the same time, on the same day, it's basically and the signal is these are not related, but trust me. I am working towards a way to make these, because if he doesn't do that, then there's the possibility of Trump saying it's like a wild chase. I don't have quite center trump would right, but, like saying, let's say anything stuff, so Peripheral Prescott, if you want it's not going to be an impeachable, Manafort stuff right and so, and you could have you could so you could lose trust from Congress in the investigation. Lose

press, the meaning. The media would be interested to matter what to be honest but yeah. That seems like deliberate as a want to sell, but I think it is deliberate. I I will point out more than that. You know. I think there almost a number of different audiences that he's speaking to in this particular case, he's probably also speaking in my opinion, in the opinion of some people who are more knowledgeable in the subject. He's kind of talking to people who on the campaign and currently in the White House, which is hey now is the time to, good deal. If you want to make a deal, if you do I'll give you a a pretty decent deal, otherwise, I'm coming after everybody, so I think that's something maybe going on the other thing but point out is: I think it's also a signal to the american people. Even if he doesn't have this in mind. You know, there's been a gotta talk that this is merely been a distraction that there's nothing going on here, and this is the first. I think real sign that this investigation is going somewhere. That's a tangible, tangible thing!

Julie. Let me ask you a question about the timeline because it feels like that has been politicized in a really interesting way. You see people on the right in Trump's can't be like. Oh, it's been a year, we've been talking out Russia, and you know this is the first time that we've gotten any any movement on it. I've seen other people, you know, I think, mostly on the left, say wow a few months into mileage. Investigation he's already indicting folks. So what is the context? You know about the timeline and how is this moving compared? Maybe to other investigations of this kind. It will be hard to know what that uh find really means until after we kind of know, ultimate results of the investigation. But everything is about on pace for the Clinton mines in front of me, but I remember that being kind of drawn out set of revelations with the Monica Winski stuff and the fact that Clinton had perjured himself and then the kind of pace to impeachment that took place over, I think

cared about two years with Watergate. You know I remember pointing this out a whole lot after Comey was fired back in May better part of a year between the Saturday night massacre in October of nineteen. Seventy three Ann Nixon's resignation in August of one thousand nine hundred and seventy four. So these things tend to take time, and are kind of public collective memory tends to be of the the most exciting part at the very end, but they, you know they take a long a long time and they should take a long time. So I think we're about on pace my impression into

mission or whatever I don't think. Muller has the whole case made out. Yet I think he's still actively trying to make the case and the fact that he now has more people who may be compelled to cooperate with the government will give him more means to make that case. Potentially it's been pretty well proven. Proven is a strong term, but there's like some smoke here. They're kind of is a desire for the Trump campaign to collude with Russia, at least to get dirt on

maybe not beyond that, but that would be closed into itself right. There has not yet been the kind of fire of like oh, this is Paul Manafort who authorized it or someone like above him, so Kushner or Trump. I guess Trump Junior, I'm not sure called peripheral or not only clearly desired it. On the one hand, this is, I think, maybe a little bit on the earlier side in terms of like when the first indictments would come down. 'cause people talking about this could take a year or something right under their hand like. I don't really think we're, like necessarily at like a climax right now. I think you're going to have like the same pattern right where you have bombshells come out every few weeks

a couple of months. By the way, I think you still will see bomb shells reported by the news media by the times and the post and CNN and everything else. In addition, the ones that come from the investigation itself, but the pattern in some ways been consistent, we're like kind of things bill all. Then you have a big bomb shell. Every couple of months, I think you've actually had fewer smaller bomb shells recently in part, because Miller doesn't look very much in part, because I think, frankly, some of the more gossipy people in the White House have lost their positions with the White House, and so therefore that makes a sourcing a little bit tougher. But it's proceeding on overall preceding kind of about in line with expectations, and it's probably worth saying that next name that we hear whenever this bombshell this next bombshell. This next move comes, could be.

And we've never heard of it's not just like everything is going to escalate, bigger and bigger and sure it bigger right. It's an investigation. It goes in all sorts of different. Exactly I mean the bottom line is: if you typed into Google George Papadopoulos before today, the first image that would come out would be Alex Karras who starred in Webster, and that was his characters name. So We don't know who you know what will go on next. It doesn't necessarily mean that we're heading towards a climax. We may just be heading towards nothing. You know it's kind of like Are there storms? Sometimes the ingredients come together and make a big nor'easter, but sometimes it's just a few showers and you br. Enbrel along for twenty minutes, and you forget about it. One of the things that's kind of lurking here is the idea of what would constitute that sort of climax to the story, and I think you know there's a temptation. I think that there is a clear legal threshold for that. An obstruction of justice is obviously are occuring the men are very small end of presidential impeachment charges, but really this process is political. The idea of what constitutes in uh

knowledge that there was collusion, or, on the other hand, that there wasn't. I think that whole process really is public. Opinion is about the political discourse around it. So, that's to me it's important to keep an eye on that and not just assume that there will be some legal mechanism that will kick in if there's a search,

type of revelation. At a certain point, the way it but when you say its political say a little bit more about that, because there's a mother's job to find actual defineable legal violations, yeah, of course, but the whole process of what it's going to mean for the Trump presidency is going to be completely political and to go back to your question before about what will we remembering about the Trump presidency that really depends on? It depends on the outcome. It depends on whether something is revealed that makes people in Congress want to move forward with impeachment and who is in Congress is going to be, I think, the deciding factor in that, and then what happens with those impeachment charges. All of this is going to be, if that, if that comes to pass, all of that will be. There is of of public pressure and how the public understands the series of revelations, so that I think, is really critical to understand this as a fundamentally a political process. Even though it's superficial

legal one, you row on the live blog this morning, Julia and we should mention- we've been not all morning, I'll, probably still be liveblogging whenever you you happen to hear this, but you wrote choose this morning if indirectly formerly calls into question two of the fundamental institutions of us: democracy, the presidency and the electoral process. Furthermore, you, These are among the things for which the constitution provides the least recourse. What exactly do you mean by that that the concept I want to start the morning on a light. No, yes, let me see if I can flush this out a little bit. The challenge of the presidency is: is the presidency the mechanism by which the constitution and the law becomes real or the executive branch is the mechanism by which that happens. I know it's kind of abstract.

Essentially, the president carries out what the law says or what the constitution says and when the president is, you know this is kind of the kind of the root of the Nixon quote when the president does it, it's not illegal right, we sort of chuckle about that, but there's a really scary truth at the at the core of that. The executive branch is really the branch that position to carry out the law and if the president does something wrong or something like that, French, is something wrong with the other branches need to get their collective action together and move forward, and in that case, in the case of removing the president, you know, if that's the remedy, that most obviously on the table, then we have impeachment and then within the executive branch in Congress we have very fraught 25th amendment and those are those are not processes that have actually been used as meaningful checks against the president. So that's what I meant on the president side on the election side, I wrote about this back in July on the site is

leaders know what the constitution does not exactly for C national elections and it's really unclear what you would do if the national presidential election was was found to be tampered with or fraudulent, so Nate? If then, this truly is arguing. We can't turn to the constitution to give us guidance for what comes next, especially with in terms of the consequence for Trump. What does come next for his presidency, his political power? This is one thing I do get like a tiny bit annoyed by liberals on

or is it there is a mechanism called elections. That's important too. We have seen some polls lately that show Democrats with as much as fifteen point lead on the congressional generic ballot. It's not the average, the average more like ten or something, but that's a big shift that would give Democrats control of the house. Maybe not the Senate. That's a powerful consequense. If the public were then elected democratic president in twenty, twenty, that's a powerful check and balance to sell. You know that is a big mechanism here. Potentially do you say? Are you saying that it is most likely that that will be the net the time when that big consequence for Donald Trump from all this stuff, actually manifest itself? You don't think that it's gonna be something but before then, before the mid terms, yeah I mean the midterms aren't that far away, it's like basically a year away today and at some point sort of, like Republicans, said in a somewhat disingenuous way with when Scalia died.

At some point they might say. Well, it's like close enough to the mid term, where this kind of the voters weigh in and by the way again like. I argue I would argue that might be kind of a good strategy for democracy that, like Trump was elected in the pub, is not had any chance to weigh in, except in a handful of districts where you've had special elections. So why is a good idea to have a mid term election and it can be a referendum on Trump and impeachment and look a little bit indirect? It's not presidential election like maybe that you should be respected. Yeah, I don't disagree. Disagree with that at all, and it's going to be interesting to see over the next few weeks, whether or not this has any impact on Trump's approval rating. You know the polling that had come out before this before these indictments came down, indicated that many Americans thought that the

Russian investigation was a distraction, including among a majority of Republicans, so that might be part of the reason why you won't see republican lawmakers come out to force the one way or another about following these indictments, but I also point out that you know Trump's approval rating did drop after you, fire James coming. An the question will ultimately be is whether or not this is seen as a partisan issue or not if it is seen as partisan than Trump is going to be able to skate by on this despite the hand wringing from the media, but if it is in fact seen as something more than that and the scene, perhaps this corruption or what not, then that could spell trouble for trump. When you play one more thing about the elections point yes, so the kind of three most prominent cases of impeachment proceedings

So far, Nixon was a second term, so is a lame duck. There's like not necessarily more records in the public. Clinton came to light in the second term, and Andrew Johnson was unelected. He was Lincolns vice president, so never elected popularly right. So in that sense you know those are all cases where you had just had a guy elec less than a year ago. You know: can we believe in approval ratings to an if if Trump numbers did start to sink, although keep in mind that, like they're, pretty darn low ready to begin with close to his bottom at at thirty seven percent. Now it almost feels like when there isn't crazy one Trump related news at that rating wants to perk up a bit to like forty or something or forty one, which is also bad, but like kind of more within the usual range of bad that were used to Obama, got down to low 40s, sometimes so, maybe the second of perpetual flood of like bad news,

keep it that low, but but we'll see we have an election in Virginia and a jersey. Next week, they're not fair. Elections are state elections. Therefore, I think they probably don't really tell us that much, but I'm you know I'm always a big fan of people voting, and it is worth as we do from time to time and the people that, on the day that Nixon left office, he had a twenty five percent approval ratings are for contacts and in terms of people. Thinking like oh wow. How low can can we go? You know just worth throwing out there we're gonna we're gonna turn to Perry Bacon Junior in a minute and talk a little bit about what we sort of teed up here with regards to how the GOP is responding, Julianne

final thought from you, especially since we started to talk a little bit up past impeachment, SAM passer of scandals. I would have you know which major spun out, of which I've heard other people spit out, also which the Democrats, when the house in two thousand eighteen and then some kind of impeachment, was Ford that we will. We will kind of completed another round of this pattern where this kind of thing doesn't happen unless there's divided government and like mate, I'm a fan of people voting and I'm a fan of of elections, meaning something, but I think that that does fit into this longer standing pattern that impeachment tend to to be again really political and carried out through partisan politics and not the winning kind of of clear legal standard. That's a that's! A really good set up for conversation next to talk about just how divided the Republican Party is, but I Julie as sorry thank you as always, and people can continue to read her online blog

on the site, but no, you have a class that teaches this afternoon. So thanks for thanks for making time. Thank you take care thanks. Julia we will be back in a minute to talk about how Washington is responding to this. But first a word from this week: sponsors this week's podcast is brought to you by blue bottle coffee. Have you ever had an experience where you try something new and then can't fathom going back to the way things were well? That is what blue bottle coffee is like for all other coffee. After that, first sip you will feel like you've been drinking subpar. Coffee, your whole life, that's because blue bottle has an insane dedication to coffee. They take freshness very very seriously. They work farmers all over the world to source the most delicious and sustainable coffee they can find. The bottle beans are then roasted within forty eight hours of your order and shipped right to your door. There were I, your home at peak freshness, there's no sitting on

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Blue apron, a better way to cook. Okay back to the show. Okay, we're back and let's turn a little bit to how Washington responding to this news of this morning? Even the news is only a few hours few- are as This point, Perry, Bacon, junior politics reporter based in DC, is here with us, oh Perry. How are you doing great so war, you have been tracking a little bit of the responses from congressional Republicans and Democrats. What's your assessment of of how people are responding so far, you know Congress is not. It doesn't usually eat that much on Monday. So you don't have the possibility of like where reporters will often grab members and they walk out the floor, and things like that. That's usually how we get particularly republican to comment on things. Trump has done that are controversial. So basically, unless somebody wants to tell us what the reaction is, we're not getting so you get Polo see who called for some kind of

special investigation. In addition to Mahler's pro that Schumer another other Democrats they basically this shows the special counsel. Looking this very carefully and I think Corey just said, we should pass a bill that makes your trunk and part of a special counsel, hello to the testing. If you remember us so far, very few republican comments at all speaker, Paul Ryan, giving interview in which you basically said. I have no comment on on policy and then start talking about tax so that there were. We are very few public comments. Democratic comment. You expect Harry how much will g o p, in particular responses to this defined kind of what comes next or is it really just all about but Miller, and it's you know I I I mean I don't. I don't think Bob gives a flying Frick. What republican lawmakers say so he's gonna how about doing what he's doing? I think it obviously has political implications.

You know if republican lawmakers decide all of a sudden, hey we're going to let go a trump, then you couldn't fax, these some real desertion within the republican base from him that that's not going to mean that Trump's approval ratings going to drop. You know twenty five overnight, but it could mean you know Trump, was approval rating in our trackers. What about thirty six percent? I think of thirty six point: six at thirty seven point something right it doesn't take very much for him to go below the floor, which is already gone and that all of a sudden could open up the floodgates. You know heading into next week's elections and then beyond that the selections and then heading in the twenty eighteen. So I do think that power republican lawmakers respond will make an impact in terms of the public perception of it, but it doesn't really have much of an impact in terms of the investigation at large. I was looking at it from the other direction which that, if Trump wants to go the extreme route of trying to get mall in the investigation, I think in that food Republican.

Who do matter and if I had seen in the province that if we're still early in the day If you had seen you know it, you know several dozen members are a big bunch of member say this investigation is stupid. We don't and it's going on. You should be in tomorrow death. The kind of thing that could make you know could give Trump the room where the freedom to do something evolving muller though it can be, president breaking you haven't, seen net so far, it's early in the day, but I haven't seen a lot of Republicans or any Republicans really criticize the investor. I guess I've seen a few, but I haven't seen a larger republicans criticize the investigation either. I think death silence is fairly important. Yeah. I think that's an interesting point. I think that we need to be careful in pointing out the difference between what might impact mullers actions versus what might impact Trump's actions toward smaller, and I think that

that's a valid point from Perry that, if Republicans gave Trump the backing say- and he felt secure enough to fire miller- which I think would be a public relations disaster. In all honesty, looking at the polling in which most people said that it would be, in fact a he be abusing it, Trump would be abusing his power if he got rid of Mahler, but Trump may in fact view it as a possible move. Republican lawmakers backed him, but it in so far is Perry pointed out that that's not the direction things are going in. In fact, I know that at least one republican lawmaker said give Miller his space he's doing fine, I mean you do have Fox news, downplaying the issue and also Fox news talking about how Miller should fired. You have the Wall Street Journal editorial page, which used to be a source of thoughtful conservative perspective, saying that mother should maybe be fired or whatever, and so you definitely do have like parts of the conservative media

coming to Trump's defense and that's important. That matters is that I take them out, but for what? It's worth over the weekend before this. Do you think that today's runs up came out it today right? That is a large. The third thing which we did you know what go was gone too far, so conservative media, I don't think- has abandoned Trump yet, but Congress might potentially and- and there are some voters who do swing back and forth, it's a little bit of a myth that, like nobody, would change their mind on Trump is going back and forth between thirty seven and forty, which is not huge but with relatively minor kind of news, and so some may news could affect things right and it is also gone back. You know his strong versus his somewhat approval ratings, which may in fact impact who turns out in the MID elections, one thing I just have to point out so funny was that when the news broke of

and the indictments of Manafort and gates. One of the things that Fox NEWS was showing was our our own survey about Reese is being the top incanting own five, our own five hundred and thirty. So we appreciate the shadows for what it's worth. I tuned into Fox right away when the news broke, and it was actually surprised at how sort of forthright they were in discussing this. They had uh Dershowitz on and they kind of went right at it and heading for sure. Yes, I understand that this is being spun in lots from the way you want. If you want a good indicator that the New York Post is sometimes a good indicator, see what their headlines are next couple of days. You know they're friendly the trump, but they also kind of care about news and they care about bomb shells, and so how many days a cover and what's the tone of that coverage, look at the New York Post cover the New York Post is trying to sell papers in New York

Obviously it should be pointed out that, across all of these different networks, there are different personalities and they all have their own agendas without them Perry firing Muller. How probable is that move? I think it's very unlikely, but I thought firing

he was very unlikely in Heaven, Jola backfire as well to the point where I think I was in the New York office that day I'm really New York office. But someone came up to me and said you know Trump, just Fire Coney and I said oh, that's funny. You must be kidding. That seems like a ridiculous thing to do and they were like no, no user right. Something is trump. So in that sense, Trump does things that I don't predict, but in this case it looks like it leads right now. If you look at the even you look at the two indictments look at the the guilty plea, even then you're at the point where I could imagine Sarah Sanders at the press briefing next time just says something like none of this directly involved, the president, I think you can imagine them saying that the low level people you know Paul Manafort was only made to campaign for few months. I can see them pudding, some guesses between between Trump and this news and therefore not moving to some kind of alarmist move. I mean for me: there are three nuke,

your level events, one of which is Muller being fired, the second of which is, pardons of high level officials in the third of which is if mother comes down and says the President himself conducted obstruction of justice or other conduct traditionally thought to be teachable. You know it's tempting to say that we can learn. How the nuclear scenario plays out from lower level. Skirmish is. Maybe it's not true, though, exactly necessarily 'cause, it's pretty easy to say to say, wait and see until one things happens. I agree with Perry that, like we haven't, heard a lot of republican senators or members of Congress come out and say all this proves. There was no collusion. I guess glad they didn't, because if they had said that in the hour before the papadopol thing broken, they would the kind of foolish

later on by the way that itself could be like a little bit of warning shot from it's like I don't don't get out in front of this 'cause there's more coming but yeah I mean, I think I think Paul Ryan still going to text. Cuscus Paul Ryan really really likes tax cuts for the rich. That's what he likes. That's what pop and uh, so he's going to try and keep getting them. You know I don't know, but we'll see I mean you know. Trump's conduct is important here too. Obviously, so why would you be surprised if he fired Muller that'll, be surprised only in the sense that it's not clear to me this pro bowl ever actually get to trump an obstruction of justice and really imperil? His presidency is not clear to me right now, if some, if there's some leaking in the next few months, suggest Muller is thirty percent or forty percent of likely to accused Trump or suggest trump and stuff, and I think that would change it for me. I don't see that that that

age right now like I said I prepared to be wrong, but that's kind of what I spent my assistant. Is it seems like this? Might not I'm not sure mall is going to really go after tropical see I mean to me: you have people in the Trump orbit like tweeting hey! This is just a cover up for the real Hillary Clinton scandal and that to me seems pretty darn deranged and the firing Muller, which, thanks to Mister, you can argue either way right. You can argue they're not going to call my bluff and you know it'll be a lot of I I just I think and I would say it's a mistake. Is I mean partially based off of the fact that when he fired call me, he obviously had a lot of backlash, and I you know those types of things so far throughout the administration of tended to repeat themselves from the public. You know if the public gets over upset over something once they tend to do it the next time it occurs. We sought with healthcare,

and I mean if you fire, Muller, just look incredibly guilty. I mean I know that doesn't necessarily play into Trump's mind. You know he could easily fire and be perfectly you know he would just say it's messing around he's getting in front of everything and he's screwing up thing and that's why I'm getting rid of him, but I mean I think, in the in public side. If we were to fire Muller, he would look pretty gosh darn it just by the way to get the question the first segment about the timing of everything you can argue again: Miller who's, the guy who doesn't like to leak, but clearly is aware of the politics of everything you want to like get news out in front of people so that Trump faces more consequences for firing, use and stuff is kind of on the public record. First, it a makes him look more guilty and be gives people something to work with, so you in some sense, maybe if Trump wanted to fire Mallory. She done it on Thursday, something instead but Perry. How much is mullers credibility

he or public opinion about Muller a factor here? If Trump is trying to disgrace him to either you know, sort of cast doubts about the to gay shun or maybe set up to fire him. Does it matter that the public sees Muller is as reliable or that Congress sees molars reliable? I assume that public opinion about molar an investigation, wellbeing. The raid, the polling read about about people want investors, get to continue right now in the polling, but I assume it's like Fox news from in the Republicans in Congress ran an aggressive campaign. These last you the next few months in really cast molars. Being a speaker Democrat, I mean it's the basically the way it the Republicans treated Mahler the way the Democrats in the star in the nineties. You can imagine Mahler's deliberating going to forty percent pretty quick she, so I don't think you having Mahler's not really known by the public that much. I assume republic

muse, particularly about him or someone malleable and could be moved toward being somewhat negative if they had a sustained campaign against smaller yeah. I would point out that you know there have been polls that have asked about Robert Muller's favorable. Writing and they tend to show a lot a lot of people who are undecided so sofa, Rinse In a August I George Washington, back at George Washington University, Battleground Paul thirty. Nine percent of Americans had never even heard of Robert Muller, and an additional eighteen percent had no opinion. So majority people had either no opinion or had never heard of him.

I sell yeah. I would say that opinions on Miller so certainly Mallya ball. If Republicans decided, in fact to start a campaign against him, then that could in fact type things. But I guess the question is what day and so far as you know, while certainly some Trump loyalists have tried to do so, it doesn't seem that the Republican Party at large has necessarily try to. I mean we talk about the kind of strong approval based versus the broader Trump voter universe, words. You know twenty five percent versus forty five percent, roughly, I think, going hard after Miller, is harming his credibility with the forty five percent to bolster with a twenty five percent, and I I don't think Trump needs that right now. You know because a twenty five percent frankly the GOP is looking for an excuse to impeach him,

especially if a mid term, where you see a president with poor approval ratings, face a damning mid term for damaging. Excuse me mid term for his party, and so the instinct of like doubling down on bashing Muller. Doesn't seem so smart, I think the instinct on saying Venice effects me. It's not collusion. It's been overblown like that's, not the worst argument. I think it's a pretty good argue or smoke them fire. You know, I think, that's not the worst argument, but if he makes it personal and stuff at Hillary Clinton, uranium and like it I mean it just seems. I think ridiculous. I think it's not like this savvy. I mean you're going thirty seven percent. Super low, he hasn't gotten very much done. So the political context is important, but recoverable still- and so I don't know you know again- number is one mid term election is important is because you see all these awful numbers for Trump in the polls and so forth, Republicans

say. Well, what's that really translate into often when maybe Democrat Twenty, whenever. Now we can argue for so they might and it may be. A bad comparison is not of federal race right, but they can say you know yeah. You know when push comes to shove, people come back in the Trump fold. If you have a bad midterm that all goes away, because Julia was right that, like it, is a book a process I don't cook took go, I don't go quite as far as Julia. I think the substance doesn't matter it's somewhere in between a political process and kind of legal process. But you know what we have on the record. So far is I think enough that you might have Trump in peace if you were at thirty percent approval and not enough, if you were at forty percent of his office to forty right now, right so kind of the combination of how much worse

does it get? How much less bothers him he become. I mean those two things in concert decide his fate. Okay, we gotta start to wrap up, and I will say that is it is reaching one o'clock as we tape. This usually don't talk as much about the timing of the of of our recording, but at because Sarah Huckabee Sanders is about to give a press coverage, so we will see what he says there, but obviously we will not be able to address that since we're wrapping up our taping now but Perry, a final thought from you, and in particular is there anyone listener should keep their eye on in terms of as response does to this development in this week start to come out from lawmakers who is who is a good canarian? The coal mine, who is an interesting figure to keep their eye on, I'm probably most curious about what Richard Borrar says, he's the head of the from the end, okay, he's kind of been someone who, among the Republicans, has been open to investigating russian

illusion, with the same time, he still a Republican and he's not been he's been keeping over the top he's not been in the Mccain Corker Flake kind of Trump bashing either. So I'm curious like what he does and what he says and how he used this because Muller's getting along now in sort of making an accusation about what happened in the twenty sixteen campaign, obvious curries that are But you said that, or for Roebuck Roebuck said, or what he does exactly ok well Perry thanks for joining us today will tell our listeners that you wrote it probably feels like age is Aw Rd in published a great piece of the beginning of today, a profile of Kentucky Governor Matt Bevan, who's kind of, as you argue, pulling off Trump with being trump, and I wouldn't urge readers when you sort of step away from the craziness of today, spend some time with that he's from Perry 'cause. It really is phantom.

Can these are on our website along side, the the live blog and all that, but thanks again for a for making time for us? Okay, that's it. Let's get back to a campaign to live bloody mates over. Thank you. As always. Thank you Jody. I can't believe it's only Monday, Harry Enten. Thank you. I can't believe it's only

how much diet Pepsi to drink today to get through today. My name is Jody Avirgan Galen Jerk is our producer. Our politics, editor is Michael Cohen. Toni Chau is in the control room and our intern is cape. Bhakti are over. I will remind people that we are going to be live blogging and certainly all day today and as this continues, maybe will extend it into the week, but this is a big week. So stay with us at five hundred and thirty dot com, you can email, uswithanyquestionspodcasts530, dot, com or tweet us with any questions or comments thanks again for listening. Who knows when the next emergency broadcast will be? If not, we'll see you next Monday, thanks again.