Catherine borrows teeth. They were you in accounting, crows I thought they were not that cool I mean, like wow, that's surprising, to cool account incur a mainly different phases, hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm dealing group former vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president last week and quickly jumped to the front of the pack in the competition for indoors, According to our tracker, he also raised more money than any other twenty twenty candidate in the first twenty four hours after his announcement according to his campaign. So today we're gonna dig to the initial reactions to violence candidacy, as well as the role that the establishment is playing in the twenty twenty democratic primary? And here we need to do that Our editor in chief in has a guy going good, get to hear and sooner

we try to climb on. How are you going? I'm gonna values and also with us, is managing editor. Make a common area. I'm gonna, have that are counting crows. Stuck in my headlong too soon and taken away may also today, It's an Emerson poll showed that a quarter of Bernie Sanders supporters would support Trump over Elizabeth Warring. If, given that option in November twenty twenty we're gonna ask whether or not that's a good use of pulling, and also We don't see more overlap in support for sanders and war and in general, Walser answer a few listener. Questions what we do any of that. I should also mention that one week from today we will be in Austin Texas tickets, for that show are sold out. Unfortunately, but if you want to catch us in Houston, Texas, next Wednesday may eighth even had to five thirty eight dot com, slash live for details and tickets. Houston needs to step up

you cannot let us look better than Houston uses a bigger city. Come here us debate the question that people in Texas yeah, we'll Texas Term Blue. Thank you very much are, but let's begin things with Joe Biden. According to the indicators that we track say, polling, endorsements fund raising. How was Bygones kick off good fine. I think everything was kind of in line with expectations, but the expectations things are pretty good because he is, he is the front Furthermore, it does not mean that your guaranteed to win in fact doesn't necessarily mean that your even fifty fifty two when I think anyone's even that close fifty fifty two when I do think, though, that, like Joe Biden is the obvious front runner for the nomination, and that people are trying to hard to pretend that it's a coherent run between him and burning, and it's not right. I mean Biden only about twenty eight percent on average

This burn is it about twenty percent by has the most endorsements in the field. Merlin most waited endorsements according to how we assign points on our. However, you only shots fired out. I will certainly look at it. His endorsements, a lot more impressive than anyone else in the field in part because I've come a lot from outside of state grand like delawares of tiny little state right, guy one I mean in any up there with road. I e mails. Thank you, I'm not a totally sure Ideally words on state. Just why combined dismounted and if at all they won't be reasons lots of corporations their Del Sylvain year, something right should be kind of one state. I am so vainly Adele's. Actually, as a appear native. I would give us some some beachfront property I would take that yeah. Why I mean again if we have to purge some states

merged. Dakotas merge Delaware. In a pencil me, it was a tuna Theseus. We regard, we don't have to pay here's. The thing I thought bide ends kick off was consistent with his status as a relatively weak front. Runner arrive. We talk about pulling on endorsements the other big thing as fund raising. Would you say that established him as a week front runner yet record breaking or whatever? First twenty four hours yeah he raised was a six point, three million in the first twenty four hours, which is more, generally more than better work raised, which is largely more than Bernie Sanders raised. So it's like he's the front runner but marginally. As you said, MIKE Abiden re six point three million, but that was from about ninety six thousand people Sanders five point. Nine million, for example, came from about two hundred twenty three thousand people should we need.

Anything of the difference between you now ninety something thousand two hundred twenty something thousand. I think it's interesting. I know it's become this new, like listen money is money one is money. You gotta precious everybody's, mind, analysis, hashtag analysis by the way, I'm an aside by the we need would sidebar and my sidebar is to say I have a vision in needs last tangent of what Neat silver show would be like if it was just like one of those talk. Radio shows where you have like an hour to fill in. You were just kind of talking to yourself. I think you would be so but that would be such an esoteric. Miss matters. Ok anyway, I think he got what he got too if we have to eliminate states within thirty days. That's what I mean is anyway. I think this

all fund raising number is interesting. I think this is one of the first elections where it's become the sort of standard metric. I do think that Biden is a front runner, a favorite for lots of reasons, because he has name recognition all that stuff, but in part because he does of establishment power, I think, Sanders Power, as we always he saw in twenty. Sixteen did come from a grass roots movement, its notable and helpful, as we all kind of like grasp around a little bit in the dark to have numbers like those now beta works team. The way that was presented with slightly misleading so that there can be sort of that's a thing as Ike whenever, after give anybody traffic numbers for five. Thirty eight for like a particular story now I can give them page views. I can give them unique visitors. I can give them how each member I time on site. I think the same is true with the fund raising numbers where you can connect

by some Dyson. Whichever way you want from the press release its often hard to tell what what but like, if you think about it binding. Marginally, more than tenders and a from a smaller base that kind of matches with what you would expect in that he's a bigger candidate, but kind of more in cidery, improbably little more dependent on big donors and every we in the past have you see, filings happen every quarter, so we don't know the specifics behind the numbers that bite and gave us we'll find them out either. The I feel like none of these numbers are impressive, I mean this is your take I don't agree with, but even I actually want to protect so sanders where most of a Democrat in the first quarter is eighteen million. Do you know much senders raised in March, one month of twenty sixteen March, forty four million

so Sanders when he's running one on one against Hillary Clinton raised more than sanders raising against twenty other candidates, yet, but best Hamburg and didn't win chinese raising half as much as polling half as well. So I don't understand why people are like not like. I campaigns on doing that. Well, so you're talking specifically about sand, are you also know? Everybody is fundraising. Burning members are more impressive than binds because berries opportunity, more sustainable with their larger author, small donor number it still not that good and binding I couldn't? Let us not good and trumps effort remain, is also not that good. Like nothing Mercer. That impressive, I feel, like I'm being like gas lighted Oh, my god, birdie has so much money. It's actually not that good old underline. Should we care about the small donor number? Should we just be looking at the big numbers? Could that's all that counts is twenty percent race filigree uses now german, Joe before others. Some axiom called like good. Let's law,

or something we're. Once you begin to use a metric as a measure, it becomes a less meaningful measure. So the fact chemist now, partly because it's become fashionable, but because of the way you qualify for the debates. Fear smaller Canada have tried this kind of dick donors and the door for one buck. Five bucks right like at that point the key still requiring a donation is like more actual money itself. The hope is that they are now on your list and you add to your listen, you build your list and they don't it in the future, which is valuable, but it's different than actually having money right. You make money off of one dollar donation that net and I think it's got a little bit over index. I mean like it things being equal you'd rather have a higher per donor average rather have, for donors and higher Fiona Wrapper almost got, unlike skewed now, words Oh you have a low per donor average or great. Well, ok! I rather have my more money. You know that more money

have a nice headline in exile, so you want both. You want both the most donors and each donor, giving the most money, but just to clarify, because you're in point, was that you don't think anybody's raising all that much money. How much money do you? One of these candidates should be raising in a month or in a quarter. What would be your expectation? I will? I will think if the top tools were twice as high across the border will be impressed if Bernie had raised thirty six million since its launch- then I would say: ok not as much forty four million and one month, but that's pretty good, are you hurt for any of the buried silver says: there's not enough money in politics. Now, on a thing like I'm say, like the money is consistent with a wife open field in which no one is out to that formidable and Diana Chocolate right. That makes answering so, let's talk a little bit more about Biden specifically, how did the other candidates in the field respond to him getting in the race?

well, I think, notably Elizabeth Worn and Bernie Sanders. Both funds raised off that Biden announcement, basically being like look at Joe Biden, establishment, big money guy, please send destinations because were the candidates of the people. We need those small dollars to fund our campaigns, so I mean Sanders a sort of second and pulling has a big reason to just take flights at him that way for war in this very much in keeping with her campaign in general. Those are the most Both things I saw you, I gotta was what warrens emails, sir I'll just read straight from this. It says how did Joe Biden re so much money in one day? Well, it helps that he hostess Winkie private fundraiser for wealthy donors at the home of the guy, who runs Comcast's lobbying shop yeah as the kind of front runner. If it is only a week from you

the other Canada's to go after him nowadays and raise. I think you saw that trumpeted trumpeted call them sleepy Joe now his best, where now it's not good at all at home and also some outside groups, were a little more aggressive than the actual candidates but that's normal, you know normal, but like it's, not necessarily, you know, I think, there's a version of Biden in which is a true consensus, front runner in which you dont have Justice Democrats, which was the group that was behind, see an analog either other kind of new, very liberal, left members of Congress also had a lot of failed attempt to nominate candidates, but they kind of came a very forcefully and Spiten, and while that does not represent the center of the Democratic Party, it may be is a good way to represent the twenty per left most younger Democrats, unlike that sort of meaningful it means vitamins, probably gunning for eighty percent of the pollution, not how two percent and that measures at the margin sure we need

Biden is not a Clinton in two thousand and sixteen level front runner. So we could we shouldn't keep dinging him for not being that, if that makes sense, but we know he's only going after eighty percent of the party right didn't. We know that before Justice Democrats or whoever attacked him no. I I look. I think everything about Biden has has gone to form sorted right, including, like there were swimming signals about the response, because on the one hand he is clearly the closest thing to like gate, extend my and can it from the established with one of you burn. It can make an argument to, but obviously has somewhat anti establishment on either hand the get somebody can. It's ran was not a a sign that the party was usually bind Biden. Fact that, like you oh Obama World people interview food and medicines or partner, would weaken saying about my didn't actually encourage bind to run in twenty sixteen now it's different year,

but you don't see, like obviously use offer Clinton, Iraq or something I like TAT Biden was but like abiding quote, whereas, like I asked Obama not to endorse, may it was a good meal. I think it's a good point. Eight about adjusting number of people in the race takes away by, status in some way of others. There's no preordained person and I do kind of wonder how the past to election cycles, twenty sixteen on the GNP side and- and this is the elections- are gone, the Democrats side being so copulate with candidates if we are entering a period of american politics where Burgess I'm gonna see those kind of preordained. Ok, it's their time candidates. You know whether or not this is going to become the new normal. Now,

you're telling me I think in contemporary politics. It is harder to pull off the next in line. I think voters are just less sort of willing per to swallow that medicine, but if someone asked you if it's a democratic establishment behind Biden, what would you say I would say a portion of it is I'd say a portion of it is, I would say, a lot of people on the sidelines. I would say there are pockets of support, but not more than pact for some other candidates, I'm anything like if I'm come, Harris on balance. I think the campaign going well well yeah. Well, doesn't mean gray but well right, but maybe I'm a little bit for us they I have not had a lot of people outside my home state line up and endorse me collect an argument that hey look, you know, it's not me. You're going be stuck with Biden. Bernie, unlike its down a great choice for anyone in a party, it's full of people of color,

full of women right and fall of politicians were not seventy. Six and seven, seven years old, right and so are mere paid. Ok, Maybe you will see that last right. But if you want a good, solid candy, you can win the nomination and represent the entire the democratic coalition, I'm kind of like first train leaving the station and will be from less freely in the station. I want to dig into a little bit more of how the establishment is thinking or how it strategizing in the twenty twenty democratic primary parts of the establishment are behind Biden. Did the party learn anything from twenty sixteen on either the democratic side or there? look inside in terms of how they should express their preferences or behave themselves during the primary. I think, they have learned. Some little run lessons again. I ethics of the Son, a Pike S before if out of tweeted, I'm sure I think Democrats are making a mistake.

By having a system. Nay vermouth super delicate worked very hard for someone to actually get a majority of delegates in a divided field without there being actually good broke convention you know. I think we should have a systematic less than twenty. Sixteen should actually have been that, like you, to allow can it's a game or momentum is gonna, get very messy, I'm more specifically interested in how the party behaves itself in the run up to the actual voting in the primary during the primary. We talked a lot in twenty sixteen about whether or not the rule working party establishment was weighing in. There are reports that the establishment could unquote, whatever you know, democratic insiders, are worried about Sanders but I really all that convinced they can do anything about it. In the same way, no one was able to do on the republican side. Anything about tromp I mean belie, because what lovers do pull you can endorse?

their candidate. I've been thinking about Obama's role, in all of this down the line because in some as there is a lot of in recent history and the democratic side, there is a lot of like similar situations to this, because Bill Clinton being a former democratic president like of course endorse his wife, you know, is there wasn't a neutral? There wasn't a neutral arbiter, kingmaker role and I've been doing this more and more, which is. Obama is acutely aware of the fact that the Democratic Party is moving in a lot of different directions and I kind of wonder kill way in maybe sooner than people might think. I don't think he's gonna way and for I'll at all, but I'm kind of curious about what he would see his role as being or what the Obama's do with their Incredible amounts of power within the party, Michelle Obama, as in as an endorse her or as

surrogate would be an interesting present, so I'm kind of curious about whether or not at a certain point there are these figures in the partner party who say: listen enough is enough. We need coalesce. This is going on too long. We watched the GEO p and twenty sixteen they tore themselves apart, guess, I could see that, but it would happen very late right, maybe maybe not I I think a bar or any other really big name democrat- could try to put two java thumb on this scale before a bunch of voting as happened. I think it just looks bad, and so I think that could happen, but it would happen in the context of the end ages of the primary when you're down to two or three council take comes down to Santa by then and Elizabeth warrant right. Then I think you could see the but he bigwigs come out, say: ok, guys desist awaits were turn ourselves apart.

At a rally behind Biden or maybe but turn ourselves apart, worn as to compromise candidate. The thing is, those at that point, a lot of voting, has already happened, and the electorate kind of has the will of a ton we're getting pretty far out in this conversation, but to wrap up here doesn't seem clear that the establishment decided one way or another note this point in the race: no, no although I think they have, and we I guess they decide. Not Sanders Right and in a way they decided we're, not gonna try to if they were gonna. Try to engineer this forbidden, yeah virtue that up front yet, first of all, that's why it's good for Harris that boy then come out with two hundred endorsement is really good for access by we say Harris's good with how this is going so far. They have decided not to try to well be better for her if she had to, endorsements right, I mean look to some extent. It would be foolhardy for the establishment alike.

Tat their Canada right now, because they don't know how people going to grow over with voters urban, no debates, yet no one's voted. Yet right. We haven't really gotten deepen the weeds in terms of attacks and kind tax and whatever else, and so suppose those that Corey Booker Turn out to be a really formidable Canada? People like and can get behind and bowed to the different wings of the party, but the ascent when on Joe Biden and therefore Booker. Never has the resources to get an opportunity and Biden proves to be a paper tiger. And loses two sanders, which is what they dont want right. You would much rather get more information. From voters about kind of what their about what their preferences are decided not to decide. Let's move on to support for Sanders, verses, Warren and where there is is an overlap, but first let me tell you that today's podcast is brought you buy. We work, we work designs, flexible workspaces for businesses of all,

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you can make me think of this segment as an extended good use of polling or bad use of pulling, because that's how the idea began, but then we decided we want to broaden out the conversation a little bit beyond just the use of pulling. But let's begin where the pole, in any case, so an Emerson pull came out earlier this month with one data point that was particularly notable at least two Forbes forms. The list of the quote five weird items in the pool and one read: twenty six percent of current Bernie Sanders, nurse said they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Centre Elizabeth WAR, and if that were the eventual twenty twenty match up, so of our listeners flag. That, for us first off need. Is that a good use of polling? So this pull her too fairly small sample size and that they can be better get. That number averaged across a number of different poles for contacts somewhere between ten and twelve percent, depending on the pole of Sanders voters in time, de sixteen voted for trumpet the general election and I think about an equal number either did not

or voted for at their party candidate which Not that high its, I think, pretty similar to what Clinton voters did in the two thousand eight journal action, but Obama M Mccain, remember were burning, got forty three percent of the vote in the democratic primaries, two thousand sixteen. He has about half that twenty percent this year, so if the more hard core people are remaining within that twenty percent and the people more open to any Democrat are now potentially leading for another Democrat. Then it will acceptance of the core sanders of words that he keeps on his corner quote only twenty percent are doing a lot of people. Or Anti Democratic Party who were really aunt, I like the Hillary Clinton version of the Democratic Party and who might not vote for the Democratic Germany in the general election. However, again if Bernie only

it's twenty percent. He doesn't with a nominations. We ass a kind of again reach out an expanded Democrats who, like the Democratic Party and who also like Bernie, so I think the theory of lanes which has very distinct provinces were then the party- and you can kind of group voters into separate lanes- would say that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warrant would be competing or voters. If you disagree with that, progress also say that you disagree with it, but are they at one piece of data? What is the other day to say, but I dont think this data disproves that they share voters, so deadly doesn't disproves that they share some borders, will yeah If you look at, if you looked at the poll, you know what it was. Twenty one percent of Bernie supporters say they would rather vote for Trump and PETE Buddha judge. So it's like all your base seeing as one data that there's this core belt a small actually share of Bernie supporters who are bernie or bust and decide what you know

I'm not, I dont identify with the Democratic Party it just Bernie. I dont think we have a ton of data yet to show that war in and Sanders share a ton of voters, it's more theoretical maybe doesn't even exist? I know because they share ideologies, but their performance of it is different, is very different, which ideas which I think maybe gets to sum up, like the reason why we're, even why we're talking about this, about what not they share voters. I mean a couple things you have sanders, obviously has a movement of support that he carries over from twenty sixteen. He has a brand with, obviously is we ve been talking about these kind of quarter people who just hate the establishment and would vote for tramp of given the chance that kind of thing- and I think that goes to burmese real power as a polemicist right. You know Aquino, he does these barn burning events that kind of thing, so he he has that

so is a little bit of lady angry outsider thing going on which did have on some level. I think Warren Do you not similar worldview? a lot of ways with some important differences. I think she, her appeal is to what I have called in the past? The Hillary Clinton primarily. Voters, which is to say like be more college educated, urban millennial types who are in some way, annoyed I cinders or think that she is sort of like the smarter version of me again. She wouldn't caught democratic socialism, but that kind of idea of of regulated capitalism. Bold progressive ism are somewhat right, but I think that, like the Bernie supporters could make the argument that he has a greater elect ability potential, because that people, I've heard tons of people say this, which is she's very qualify

she might be more qualified than he is, but people don't want to vote for her because and hunger is alone, because she's, a woman and people have like a Clinton hang over so who are Sanders voters and who are worn voters can we tell so far from point. Warren voters are a lot more college educated. Are they older then Samuel centres. Voters are so young that a kind of probably have to begin their cause there. You can As someone who is a a pretty hard core, as cars can play a pretty hard CORE Clinton resistance, Mc Grath, whose like a baby boomers, AIDS woman who did not Bernie at all it is totally fine or even quite enthusiastic about Warren but yeah. There's things you know I mean like loathing about lanes- is like There are lanes, but the existing like five dimensional space, or something where freedom types of voters, their different, reconstructing first and second choices. For some voters there looking very much that policy in trying to calibrate their views against some way.

Average of you know where the can't stand on ten issues that probably does exist, White, that literally, but for some segment of voters not as much as like the kind of media. Slash political science models would assume for some voters about. Are you or the establishment or against the establishment for some borders. There are still a lot of odor, so ABC News. Such russian Post had a pull this weekend where they didn't give you a list of candidates. They just said: ok up Linda question: who would you vote for impact nomination in that Paul Sanders at eleven percent in Seville, percent any customarily gets buying was at seventeen. Instead of thirty warm was at foreign set of eight right back. Shall you there is a group of people for whom it just like. When you read this list of names than he is Familiar names is a kind of placeholder and for all these can it's maybe half a support roughly as people who are actually thought about it and support that candidate. It is just I've heard that person's name in the news a lot lately and they

fine in this weird person on the phone asked me a question about it: Do we mention gender dynamics Amino sanders? Supporters are for democratic party, pretty mail, by the way there are in some, these poles, more female voters who are undecided, so I went off is almost like a reverse Bradley effect. Broadly does the thing that's supposed to happen where we're voters would claim or undecided because they were afraid to vote expressed our support against the black at eight, when I didn't find him over that Black Canada right? I want, if you almost reverse phenomenon here now we're like item? We bug it myself in trouble where women are less willing to us their opinion. When its early in the day certainly don't have all the facts in order right and so lots of brokers are happy to say: oh yeah, Bernie Biden, mere PETE meadow. But women are like I'm, probably leaning toward Warren?

but which are who member but there's no reason for me sure any asserting my opinion about the aspirant class lawyer Raleigh slope. Ok, how big of a different is there thou between male undecided, then female, doesn't maybe she thought it was a pretty big difference. The reason I'm hedging is because, like I have a look at that many other poles again to me, it doesn't. Orderly, add up that you have these white men doing so well, and I saw looking for reasons of takes place, right and one of them. I b that, like women, are more likely to be decided, or maybe people of color, more likely to be undecided early in the process, whereas white men are not that's interesting, we should we should look at issue as we will follow up on that country. But its eye? What are the women thing gang? I get access. What's your voice, oh god or all poles should be conducted in that light. I also have this

related question when you're talking about how many Sandra supporters, overlap with worn supporters. We don't good way to measure this, but we probably still need to ask the question: how much was sexism a factor first some some sand or supporters in twenty. Sixteen, a couple just in a quantum quote data points. One is, I think we all experienced and observed a lot of sexist rhetoric coming from Santa supporters? Online I would not generalise had out to all send their supporters, obviously, but it's just like kind of one data point, but the combine that with Now there was about, but let's say twenty percent of Sanders supporters in twenty sixteen who were never Hilary voters right who either didn't in the general election or voted for a third party candidate or road for Trump. Those words were on balance more conservative there

Democrats overall, they tend to come from red states. So, even though we can't really measure, I think, if we're talking about Warren and Sanderson orders and how much the voters overlap. I do think we have to ask the question of how much of a factor is sexism for some voters, is just gender overall for some voters, and is that acting like I kind of like a guard rail for some voters between those two candidates- Maybe supple for me, maybe not so burning- goes from forty three percent for years ago to twenty percent currently all's I made were debating a what is true that twenty percent right when we should debating what about the twenty three percent, because clearly, twenty per se are the ones with the most hard core Bernie fans and with him at certain circles on them.

They are still Dame recognition, but but law them are real big vans right. How come more of a twenty three percent did not go to warn that we actually get this question quite a bit, which is when we talk about this on the pod Castro. When we talk about it in pieces about sex in the way that candidates are perceived the lower the media cover them without fail. We get people tweeting back or where's the proof where's the evidence. I think that there is sometimes evidence there are sometimes you known in in surveys. People will cut of express what you know. People who run service likes. You know sexist feelings. Are they answered it in this way? But I ask: continue to like my answer to people who push back on this and say where's the status like you have indeed and sexism that I think is an always well measured or well expressed in sir.

A data, and so I understand the lander speaking for myself here, I'm going on gone off book, but we know after I think it's sort of the purposes of tooth question back. We know where the data, I dont know where's like where's the date and your everyday life about internalized. Sexism, how does express itself, it doesn't often express itself in ways that you can in a newspaper amazing article, say that success and we have the data to prove I think sometimes, these candidate choices and whether or not there are framed by gender are the unit with elect ability. Democrats think that right and they think with Bernie Strip White Man, but you are also poles, where, if you look at like who do, you think, is electable and not right, people I think that being a straight white man is correlated with Elect ability. Democrats think that right and they think with Bernie Strip

man, but you are also a seventy seven year old Socialists We must remember that ways which I'm not sure I would agree with right. I think the political, probably say that actually being seen as very far left. Any kind of proud of that probably is a bigger reliability, then your gender, or than your race, but like I thanked him Aye, sir, are reluctant to believe that after twenty sixteen and also when you know Did you hear a lot because there's maybe truth in it is that some degree of trumps sport is driven and racial anonymous. Not Jeffrey Sumter that some degree as can debate, whether its aim degree or a medium sized agree more small degree and support you're there time they like okay. Well, don't we need like a safe white guy to run against Trump then don't forward. I again, I wonder if that wears off December, one people are good if they really fall in when a political way with Elizabeth Warren or or come I'll. Hairdresser mare,

Whatever else right, people are good at coming up with rationalizations for why their candidate is more electable. You know it's interesting Harris in her stump speech kind of addressed, the elect ability thing. Where shall say I'm here to win the like. That's one of the first thing she says I mean you would think that, like de facto I'm running for president I'm here to win this, but she, but in this, raise more national aid, just numbers game, she's, she's saying I'm not. Do into pad my resume and be either way. I think I have a real path victory, but it's interesting to me that that something that she, like showed her kind brainer like we have to address this year to jump back to the to the warrant Anderson. A lot of Santa support, had an independent, small see conservative flavour to it. You know he did better in and states allow home yeah exactly exactly right.

And so, when you look at it that way, you know when you look at it as his supper was sort of or about blown up. A star men and levelling the field. Then lack of overlap with Warren, I think, makes a bit more sense above and beyond that. The gender stuff, even or on top of God, was again he's an independent she's. A register exactly right or wrong before we wrap up. I want to answer a few listener questions. We ve been getting some great questions as the primary has started heat up. So let's do that, but before we do, let me tell you that today's package is brought. You buy one, eight hundred flowers after a childhood full of unsuccessful, to pull the wool over your mom's eyes, you really think she wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a last minute mother's day gift and something truly thoughtful. This mother's day, don't for anything less than the biggest and brightest bouquet from one hundred flowers. Dotcom right now

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Friday. As I mentioned, we received a bunch of good questions from listeners in every so often we want to take the opportunity to respond to some of them. As you know, the primary carries on so here we go. Let's start with a question from Harry: maybe oriented came in on twitter. The question is: how greatly do you guys expect the first round of debates to affect the pulling numbers, especially for candidates pulling between four and eight percent current gray question her very greatly greatly greatly how pretty late we also working conditions required is a good question. How what's the scale, the change that you would expect? I would expect the first debate to produce- one surge big of a surge and for whom and when and where our home does about all, probably for safe mode.

No! What's a search, though, what our weight as a search out like, what's arrange on assert the Buddha widgeon surge, doesn't like forty eight point, Sir Ten to twenty points are thirty to forty points, forty eight yeah, and this is in the model of like the two thousand and twelve republican primary, where everyone gets less than that of men. That's the meaning expectation right over under forty eight point, sir. It's right Buddha! it is actually like a little lot larger than that will depends on which, when you look at Saint or nationals but he's on, I cite that site expect like a two thirds booted surge. I think we might see bigger searches and depths and that on the scale of like twelve sixteen or land down land on the expectations. Next question comes from Stephen. He says with just over one hundred and thirty days until the Iowa caucuses. How many two thousand and twenty candidates do, you think, will drop out before them for Iowa Steven

Stephen have a sea Stephen I gotta go. I need to tell you something about the large. Egos, but it takes to run for president. None of them will drop as my prediction that now I am not by an don't know, because you only need to have that much money to just. You can run like a ban Carson like Book tour campaign, but what have you start feeling shame You wouldn't be eyes down. This question ever asked on the show who feel shame in politics these days come on What are you? Joe Biden ran he dropped out before I was on the people. The people who don't have that much like Yang is gonna fun, Tis campaign. I think the eagle factor comes in for a lot of people like. Why would you might drop Alec right after I love I put a over under tell seek effort, will drop out. I pity over under at either three and a half for four and a half hour, and I put it fibre five now there are a lot of Canada thinks I'm gonna get in right right.

To some extent, if you're, a TIM Ryan or something in your at two percent- and you don't really. Path forward. You really have any money right and you dont want entered your dignity. You don't wanna beyond on the ballot and get embarrassed, I'm saying if you think a future career. You know it's like yourself fur like ten rye and are very had one drop out technically agenda Well, we need very late. We consider major. So we have some s threat. Clare says zero. This is three and a half to foreign and on board made says five, we'll see what happened. A believer in the next question is you think beta momentum is now lost and his space is occupied by mere peat. As the court unquote, White Obama candidate do think there is space for both better and Mayor PETE or can only be one there can be only one I do. I do think met. The Buddha judge has stolen some us. Let us thank you. I think I think need public disagrees with me on this,

but in general I think, of better work and people to judge as being very similar types of candidates because, I see them as like annotation wise as like the safe straight white man who can speak about sort of prayer MIKE progressive Social issues, one of EM dunwoodie anyway, this programme, for let finish my point, speak to read state errors are, or whatever east posters conception of red Staters is. I didn't need argument back me would be Clare. People to judge is different because he is a gay Canada, and you can underestimate that. I think he has more of an uphill fight, because people are there is no, we don't have a conception of help but would react to a gauge and our election candidates, but in general I think that those two guys are caught us their their whole path to victory, I think, is basically the same tectonic gone for the same thing I'll figure that similar really via graphically

the nature of their appeal. Yoda me I mean, I think Buddha Judge, but a judge, much clearer Bashar, but minister, has a much clearer such about like I'm, trying to a kind of bridge the whole red state. Blue state stack, I like I may have been Harvard educated, but from a small town in Indiana Ray. I may be gay, but I work on Ray Day issues and people with that, I'm letting a little league and I'm religious, but no Norwegian and stuff like that right, I think, that's a different type peeled and bad. Oh, who was more like a I calm again. We use like the beer verses wine track, he's like the macro craft brutal great, like the same Adams. I just think you're really wrong about this like what years at your basically, maybe one of running a more concise, clear campaign than the other one, but I think they're generally going for the same thing, and I feel it when

scrapping this you just describing like whose campaign you think is being better run right now, look at other actually going for the same kinds of people. I don't think better has a clear message about I kind of what he's running for other than the flexibility Worthing Peter Peter, Peter Buddha, Sharp Peter either brutish Worthing P as you know, who were you talking? I bet you just proved Clair's point I want to make. I want to make a point, I think you're both. I agree with Clare, Isaac Mica by glue clear, but I think you're both over complicating. I just think there's a portion of Democrat who want to get really acts, did about their candidate and it becomes a thing, and I think it was better, and then it was mayor p, and I think you there's only so much space

in the media ecosystem and then the electorate for for there to be a trend, the hot candidate- and Liberty, Canada, yeah, exactly into in that way. You know, I think they are competing either indifferent archetypes. But he's not even making the argument, but they are the same candidate he's just my god. He's just making argument that there can only be one like celebrity darling of the moment and so, if p Can it be the one? Then it can be better anymore That's why you did more. It's not so much about them. It's about the feelings and dynamics their tapping into and taking advantage of, Tingley Hawaii. What is Chris Matthews getting Twineham down as lucky Booker be Tingley book, he becomingly, just not yet, and if you buy singly, then Mayor PETE won't beating we anymore Zack. I regret. Instead, she is sinking to attain the Tingley lame. I mean we also have this issue that, like I think mere peat has an appeal that

is primarily to white voters. Better comes from a disk that is majority hispanic and if you look at these he talks about it. A lot unlike criminal justice, Immigration on education is actually issues at historically hispanic and sometimes blue Democrats are more concerned about them white Democrats, and so I think, like you know, but he may not be kind of actually gaining traction with minorities we sort of may be trying to. I think, may repeat: sport is gonna, be quite white. Frankly for a long time in the process, I think, as we speak, he's getting lunch with AL sharpen today or something but you know I think kind of tea is kind of Canada like White College. Intellectuals, slash college students and, better, probably hope at group, among others right but like there are other directions that better could go are well. That question started its own, a segment untruths.

And I am sure we will get to more of these questions as the primary whereas on, but let's leave it there for now. Thank you, Nate. Thank you. Thank you. Clare skaters discuss Peter like Peter Bashar. If you have a suggestion for what Peter do their shores campaign slowly, Should they, let's, let's look at this Canada. Five, thirty eight politics we sometimes right like this- would be the item you ever algorithm wrote like up stump speech, yeah Democrat. What would it be? We shouldn't name are fake candidate. You don't you know so far- is like the candidate of five thirty three, with the perfect stumps neutral, five thirty eight metres written by Peter Buddha shy. I don't wanna, looking up particular mirror method and before we go. We will be in Texas almost all of next week.

Public Tax S, former republic of taxes should go, get your tickets at five, but he d come flash alive. We had asked in Houston for it, and then that that's it I'm looking forward to a too I've, been reading the path to power and so Really that's why you're look forward. Do yeah actually really excited be in Hell country, yeah, to see all that grass that Robert Kara has spilled a lot of ink. We're getting their early weaken before I'm actually staying at a trailer, This is why minutes wholesale and stop talking murdered in the middle of an eye by using the trailer, it was cool the heart once with one. Ah he they now. Will you tell me where you are you gonna do with them? I was going to drink beer,

My name is Galen drooped turn each. I was in the control room you can get in touch. My emailing us at pie cast at five thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments if your friend the show? Leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, can store or tell someone about us. Thanks for lessening ceiling her.