Guys. I think, there's a risk going too far into the weeds here. Welcome to the the first big primary election date of the twenty eighteen midterms. Can you feel the excitement? We've got primaries and Indiana Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina was called the I seventy to I seventy seven primary prevention, one hundred and seventy nine s, and I select the basketball, it's the basketball, primary Indiana Carolina, really good at basket big best of all states? we listen to our episode. Last week you got up to speed on the West Virginia race. We will talk a little bit about that, but we are also going to check in on all of those others, the people here to help do that check in and perhaps brainstorm some names for what tomorrow's primary is going to be. We've already got two not

names on the table at her and she fades over Helen, eight, allegedly politics for a clear Malone: hello, Claire, Hey Judy and Politics editor MIKE Echo, hello I applaud applaud all naming I like naming Claire's anti naming yeah yeah. That really upsets me. That sums up the difference between Claire and I it's very cutesy. I also don't like state nicknames which will proliferate on twitter tomorrow, yeah what kind of person doesn't really state nicknames after we discuss tomorrow's primaries in the Hoosier state, the Buckeye state, the mountain, stay in the tar heel state. We will talk about a question: that's been kind of honor and what is going well for. President Trump will talk about what is going on, whether he's getting the right kind of credit, but let's begin with the primaries. Let's start with Virginia again really quick and check in so liquor has the polling. There changed at all with three people in the republican primary for Senate

Politico says that Don Blankenship who's, the most controversial of these three is closing. Again, The weekly standard this morning said quote: Republicans are panicking. What's going on, we have very public polling in this race- as I I guess, there's a Fox news poll from early April or late March, or something that showed, I think, Jenkins, lied, Morrissey and Second Blankenship in third recently. There was a political report that that had this internal, poll number showing Blankenship Surgery MIKE is hold your horses. A hold your horses, whole, I want. I just want you to know This is Nate Holdings for Cisco. It's got one more so that maybe pull should be in quotation. Marks. Ok finish your point: there isn't it. Arnold Poll that reportedly showed Blankenship surging? Actually, this two internal polls that reportedly showed like it should the weekly standard than reported today, yeah political reported their existence and then the weekly standard reported

chel numbers now I don't really know you know what to I have any other recent polling. So now I'm actually kind of curious. What would your advice be made? Don't This ignores completely and go in there, and we know that their internal polls for Lincoln CHIPS, rival campaigns not from Blankenship right. So this is presumably either Jenkins or Morrissey, showing that plank My advice is when you have public polls to nor internal polls and even like kind of almost bet against them really, but we don't have. Recent public polls are, the Fox NEWS Poll is old enough to be out of date, so the next best idea is to try and reconstruct why the polls were leaked. And think about that when you're assessing them and you kind of try to mentally like Di biase them. So this weekly standard report says there was one poll that was conducted first is Friday, sat instead of Saturday Sunday at a blank and ship twenty percent,

Morrissey spelled wrong. Twenty seven percent Jenkins fourteen percent unnecessary. She I almost you know why I'm going to show you. I almost copy that and stuff Morrissey run myself in a tweet that went out to all my followers right for some reason have that Thank you check it. Sam added spidey sense of Morrissey something's wrong about that, but like if I am make it embarrassing tweet I'm going to throw shade at you weekly standard. Ok, keep going to me that looks like a palm pilot critic. This infection listing these numbers instead of just referring to them right now, at least on. The way toward being useful journalism. To me, this looks like a polar. The Morrissey campaign released to show hey Morrissey, is the only establishment horse course in town, if you don't get behind the Morrissey horse, then Blankenship will win right Let me, then, the reporters at politico or weekly standard then called the ' in this campaign and say hey. What do you have an

they say? Oh well, Actually, maybe we aren't looking that great, let's a poll showing a three way tie and were point ahead of Morrissey and Blankenship slightly ahead, now quit the narrative, it's a big mess and that Blankenship since I take him seriously, which, by the way, the chickens campaign, both the Jenkins at the mercy campaign, kind of want the Blankenship threat to be take. Seriously. Ordinarily, you would say: hey look you release Paul, you discount that candidates numbers by five points in this case, though they want it calorie, they come in, they want trump to come. Say, don't offer. Blankenship is a real threat here right, you know so Decoding of this is that Jenkins is not doing great because even his internal, 'cause, he did not release the internal. I can promise you this. You did not really see internal to politico. That showed him fourteen points behind right, Therefore, by process of elimination he must have release. Showing him one point ahead of Morrissey behind Blankenship So one point ahead: thing is like boy can like I

I can be s my way if I make every possible assumption to like a one point lead, but actually like trailing a bit. So, oddly enough I mean, I think, like if I had to guess The real numbers going to quote. Are it's kind like Blankenship, thirty Morrissey thirty in Jenkins, twenty four or whatever Trump Junior had tweeted last week? Listen, don't Blankenship. We don't want another Alabama support Morris, your Jenkins, and this morning his father Donald Trump. The president did the. With the same thing, we said: don't vote for Blankenship Vote for one of the other two. Now I thank it's going to his father, his father treated now. Can we talk about that should be about whether or not that's a great strategy by establishment, Republicans by the White House to say: hey this guy Blankenship is maybe in the lead vote for these guys yeah it's because because it might split the vote- and I know the Trump team is, I think, it's to come out in a with a full throat.

Endorsement of anyone after the Luther Strange Roy Moore uncle in Alabama, where Trump basically said. I regret. Interesting Luther strange, but it does complicate that path to victory for more establishment. Republicans, doesn't I thought it would just. It seems like if your goal is to defeat Blankenship. You should pick a horse and try to get everybody. To rally behind that horse, which, as many pointed out, is probably what was what the more see campaign was trying to do with leaking this Paul. The problem is: if for Trump, I think is like with this street he's kind of getting the worst of both worlds. If Blankenship wins, you're still, gonna get a bunch story. Saying Trump loses another republican primary as he did in Alabama right, but I have the added benefit of signaling to your supporters. Hey here's for you! So you should get an eye and I think it's a symptom of

Patrick Morrissey is seen, is seen as formally kind of a never trump kind of guy and Devin engines was used to be a Democrat, so maybe the Trump team feels sort of like we don't. I don't know if I want to put my finger on the balance with either of these. So will just you know? Well, it's not I'm not saying it's great strategy. No, but I guess the other thing that was also just like. I'm not sure Trump can have much fact. Anyway, even if he employed optimal strategy, I mean we saw that in Alabama he didn't or stranger than then more one We also wonder about the kind of subliminal message of don't look for this because he can't win- which is something a lot of republican establishment figures would have said about Donald Trump himself, yet It's kind of a little front runner sort of things. A little weird Blankenship has gotten a ton of media attention because he is the most outlandish candidate in the race in the media's defense. The media doesn't cover just any

outlandish candidate. They can, I have to show a certain level viability, but once I show viability. Then the kind of media will go all in. We saw the same thing with Trump right. I do wonder whether the Republican Party has a problem where they have these kind of outlandish candidates. They're able to get meet this minimum threshold to qualify from. Attention. Then the media goes all and and and in these prime where, where there's not a lot for voters to grab onto to to distinguish between candidates, if one can it get eighty percent of the other coverage, you Know- and also I mean Blankenship even before he was even before he got a lot of national media attention. I think he had traction in the state, because kind of running, an anti Obama administration race, where he saying I was scapegoated by Obama administration that plays really well in West Virginia, which you know, Obama had the worst approval ratings of any state in West Virginia. So I think, even before he got attention, Blankenship got attention for his kind of

his racist remarks. His sort of nutty tv ads people in West Virginia were kind of like a hearing. The Anti Obama campaign and b he's running an anti Mitch Mcconnell campaign and anti establishment campaign sort of in a vocal way. Those are kind of like you're, pretty far number of that party yeah yeah, that's a sexy pair of underpants in a in a GOP primary right there. Anyway, it's really important that Blankenship is one of only six candidates in the race, three of whom are viable right, that it's not that hard to win the three year thirty five percent of the vote, which is all that he may need, and it not necessarily mean that West Virginia by and large, with regions are happy with them. It just means that, like when this multi way split and you can Why is media attention when he had that cocaine Mitch ad coming Lysol, all the journals be like? Oh my god, this is so crazy. Why would never do that? Well, they would do it because of like people like you, you know,

We journalists, who would like kind is there for like a maybe a number of ways, it's a certain type of okay, growing germs, fair, I I know like a certain type of like of journalist comments in a certain way on, like you know, in a savvy way on campaign developments right and like you know like this- make any sense. Why would he do that and the reason? Why is because there for people like you, talking about it and it kind of re the debate as a referendum and like if it loses Blankenship I'm ceiling on his support. It doesn't or he's only thirty five percent. This is like the Trump strategy writ large twenty eight to thirty minutes a theme of these and by the way, the multi candidate splitting the vote into like pluralities in the primary is going to be the theme of tomorrow for a lot of a lot of states. So keep in mind. So, let's move on to another one of those state. Indiana or maybe this dynamic is at Play Republic

for competing to take on incumbent, democratic, Senator Joe Donnelly? There are three main contenders in the Indiana Primary Representatives: Luke Messer and Todd Rokita. And former state representative and business executive, MIKE Braun, Messer, verses, rokita versus Braun sounds like a tub cleaner brand. That's! Ok! No problem key to through and through, like I so since already begun to going down the path toward such trenchant analysis? What else do we need to know about this race? I don't think, Race is all that interested. No, it look all three of these candidates that there's some differences between them. Rookie does a little more tea party ish than Messer. A little more establishment D. Braun is a little more

outsider, a bronze, lark, largely self funded. But all three of these candidates would be serious contenders against Donnelly in November, so, unlike West Virginia, I think this is a race where republicans have good choices to to to. You know, party seems to have its act a little tighter together yeah. If these were tub cleaning products, they all work pretty. Well, I'm respect your adherence to that terrible medicine, so bad. So this which state just will sort of crude but there's another site where there has not been much public polling. Why is that? Why aren't we here when it feels like. But it's you know, it's or it feels like. This this call to ex these, are these are trying their as you still think, a primary level like people are going for money to do willful really hard. It's hard, yeah part of town is like it's actually there's both US journalistic interested,

and the polling is a lot harder like you can really embarrass yourself with the primary poll, if you, if you're not isolating the relatively small number of people that actually vote in these things, especially in Multi Way primary, which these are which are dynamic. I look in the classic sense. You would say, What's the sign of a good or a bad candidate, and one is what level political experience you have. The fact that Braun is a state represented instead of a? U S, representative yeah, that's winning he's one notch below you know, I think, is not seen as particularly corners, crazy or anything I mean he's self funding, former Democrat right but like It's not like you're, going to have a disaster or is Karen eight, but I do think Joe Donnelly has not taken quite as many slings as some of the other vulnerable Democrats and key yeah, you kind of pretty Achanak to beat him and so and uh. Can a versa, pretty academy, maybe the distinctions worth making, but the stakes are not as high as in West Virginia. What's the

through environment, for how we should see whether Donnelly is actually susceptible to being unseated here, I mean Donnelly is certainly one of the five or six Senate races that the you know the Democrats are really worried about and worried about, losing that seat, but we we should mention that nothing of rake. It has a a big primary preview up this morning and funds for thirty, eight dot com, all from which we are all just repeating. The point is thanks Daniel thanks to Daniel, but he does point out that it's a very republican, leaning state we put its partisan lean at nineteen points towards the republican side of things. Donnelly certainly faces Joe Donnelly, who is in incumbent, certainly faces a tough reelection fight, and I think it's going to be head into the late summer and early fall one of these states where we're going to see a probably ad dollars targeted. So it's going it's going to be a race that will know more about, but right now I think where you're seeing a lot of special elections or races like

Virginia where there's a little bit more of a uh human interest in the in the candidate stories Indiana is a little bit flying under the radar as clear mention Indiana's, very republican, leaning, now so republican leaning that it can't have a democratic, senator, obviously, but still very republican, leaning and Donnelly is going to trouble, no matter who wins this primary. I think the the I was gonna complain earlier about that all we had for these rates, as was Gravis polling gravis, is a ninety nine for like doing the best polls, but as many points out pulling in prime,

it's hard it's expensive, so we should be thankful for what we have, but Braun leads. I think Rokita wasn't sack and mastering. Third, as I said before, I don't think there's a lot of difference in in Canada, quality quality there, but that's actually kind of reverse of of how I would rank them in terms of you know, experience and having all that buttons buttoned up for for November, but again that crevice ball found like a basic. Half the electorate was on the side and said this is really anybody's race, which is also a theme yeah. It seems like we talk about that, a lot that there's been these large number. Even in the limited polling we have these large swaths of undecided. Is that that say anything about about this year? Is that always the case? it's pretty normal for primaries right now, people don't have you always have a big undecided. Typically, I mean it's actually kind of a sign of An honest pull sometimes, is that you have a fair amount of undecideds. I mean voters. Aren't that like this is not the Mitchell primaries. The number of people who vote in these elections are people who are pretty

Caden, loyal partisans. There listens, but also they have? What's I mean primaries, inherently have high and it had two people, usually multiple candidates that they like in their own party and are late to the game, to collect information and so again, like the average error in presidential primary pull so something like eight points. So you can only imagine what the error is when you go even further down the ballot and have lower turn out. I hate when people use the phrase like tos to describe things, aren't really toss. Ups but your mental. Your should be kind of like in a Senate, very good material primary. If things are sort of vaguely close, then they think of it. As anything can happen, right, you're, better off thinking if there's three viable Candice West Virginia They have a one in three chance each right. We could debate that probably whatever Jenkins Little bit lower than that but like, but that's the right here a move on to Ohio, where there are a number of races Claire

Jody. I never see him for an NBA playoffs. Now you know I'm, I just thought of it just been harping on a little too much yeah. You know they really want to tap into the Sixers Let's move on to Ohio, the home of Lebron James and all the other people who play on his team who he carries on their back. Every single game. Marquee race is the primary to replace Governor John Kasic, who is term limited, cannot run for re election. Will he run for something else who does? But both Democrats and Republicans have a well funded front. Runner and then there's insurgents of sorts and both sides. Let's start with the Republicans clear you when I laid out. What's the what's the scene, look like for the republican primary well, you've got my two one he's a former senator from the state, the current attorney general he's, the republican frontrunner and retailer who's K. Six current lieutenant governor is running. Those are the top two contenders. It's sort of a weird dynamic, because Mary Tail it's been. Basically,

Valencay sick, even though Tkacik is endorsing her, because Tkacik has taken obvious, very anti trump stance throughout Trump's. See in term of office and with a with a republican primary crowd. That doesn't play very well and then on the democratic side, the top two contenders right now are Richard Cordray, who is the former consumer Finance Protection Bureau head and Dennis? who is a former the former mayor of Cleveland former presidential candidate. I have thoughts about the I'm not completely gone the Republican, so sure yeah yeah talk with the democratic side, so it Can the polling to winds up by fair amount? Each is that where we sort of stand yeah, I think a fair amount yeah. I don't think he has a decently safely, but you know, I guess, never say die, and can you carry

is why he seems to be pulling ahead. Well, I think he's just an well known name in the state. You know he's been around for many years, she's been around in there republican establish. For many years he's. You know he wasn't part of sort of an anti Trump administration. What Claire correct me, if I'm wrong unlike Merry Taylor, is running to MIKE. The winds right does not necessarily that much room to his right. Like he's not like a case sick, moderate or anything, is it now right? It's there Both kind of I think, frankly, Mary Taylor is sort of hurt, just in Jenna I heard association with the Tkacik administration, even though she sort of been trying to shove it off. I think there are some. You know, accusations that she's she isn't fit. There was like a weird scandal where she used a state airplane for some new shoes flying home somewhere,

I can't remember the year of plain scale, but it wasn't in the spectrum of political scandals. It's a it's a blip on the radar, but I think that's the dig against her, but I mostly think it's an association of Catholic mean these midwestern states, Ohio, Michigan,. Indiana, although had a problem with the nomination there, a couple years ago, ten to be fairly reasonable. Close quote for republican parties who have like kind of a stream wings, that's pretty strong assumption when it's like not super liberal, so like kind of in anyway, but they tend to nominate pretty decent candidates, at least in statewide races, I never thought I would urge the usual caution about like they're being margin of polls about maybe Kucinich being someone who would generate more more enthusia potentially about Cordray the guy who wrote a tweet saying, Ohio '

is a unique and pleasing shape, which was when I like the which, by the way, it's good chance. He didn't say which Ohio actually looks like Ohio looks like a heart that's why their slogan was the heart of it all he's like it's a Pentagon or home plate straight side, all that into one tweet, a much more. What do you you're saying you would caution against people dismissing Kristin are you would caution against people? What's the narrative that your question yeah, I would caution of yeah. That's just caution, cautious in cautious people now against a state, we don't have a lot of polling where primary polling is inherently not very good and good material races, especially- and you probably one can he's going to have like it enthusiastic group of or verse another candidate who generates broader but less enthusiastic. So this is this is where I do have some thoughts on the democratic side. So I'll point out that there is, bottom Wallace Poll that just came out. That said that forty one

democratic primary voters are undecided. Thirty one percent favor Cordray and fifteen percent favor kissing shout out to the Ohio Matters Podcast, which is you know great little podcast put out about battle politics, and I thought Kyle Kondik, who it who works for crystal ball was on. There is also in Ohio need of friends of the show final show the show what I thought was a very funny on the nose way of framing the support for Cordray Vs Kitsune. Said, you know, like cord rate- is kind of Classic Columbus he's like sort of like vanilla there, whatever kind of like an inoffensive, moderate and Kucinich Cleveland to the core I mean he grew up in slavic village. He's got the kind of ethnic white last name that people frankly do vote on and he's got the bomb stick style, but not sure, just

It's also has better name recognition than Cordray. In the state, which is probably something but to me, the forty one percent of people who are unsure food is like Kucinich. It also has a reputation for being a bit of a wacky guy right, and I think that that You know people are saying like we could have huge turn out in progressive areas of Cleveland, maybe, but also he has mutation for being Dennis Cousin yeah, like that's kind of an Ohio joke and it and it's a little bit, but was he? Was he the people like him as a mayor. The boy mayor because was they kicked out of office after the after the city went into bankruptcy. Looking back, it was an unfair thing. He to say municipal power. It was actually quite a thing in the 70s when when Cleveland was not doing well, People in the after effects said casino made the right choice,

but he was an incredibly young mayor. People said his administration was sort of irresponsible. I mean that's like a whole different, but I guess story, so he doesn't he's Adam Scott's character from parks and rec. Oh yeah kind of yeah. I guess my question little declares are Ohio ends, judging Dennis Kucinich on his track record Ohio or this notion of what he is on the national stage. As this guy who ran the super lefty campaigns and tried to run for president over and over and over again, I'm saying sort of intertwined. I think because Kucinich would say I have the classic American Working class straightening. His whole thing is about how he lived in a car and slavic village when he was younger. You know I was the four foot. Eight football player at my high school team he's got the bird you know he's the on he's trying to really spend the underdog Rustbelt story and he's got this.

Nationally of of the Sanders pack. Of course, Cordray has worn in his corner so you've in interesting ways. You've got the feuding factions of the democratic, progressive wing. I'm a little surprised to hear you guys both may and Claire say, youth kissing each other has a real chance here. I mean obviously it's but it, but I said no, no, I'm urging caution that I'm not sure that everyone sort of saying Kucinich could win. I'm saying I'm not sure I get it. So I'm not sure he gets that big turn out in the Cleveland area, because because because Ohio is really a state, that's quite different in its three sections. Northeast Ohio is very different politically from Ohio from the Cincinnati area. I I hesitate. A little to say this because I feel like it it it's so conventional wisdom me, but I think it's true. Kucinich wins here wins here, that's a big deal, big deal for Democrats, potentially really hurting themselves in a in a race they could and maybe

good when I should but could win can't see him winning right now, but I mean all eat crow. If you general election primary I'm not sure how win I I'm not sure I feel like there's a lot of tenant across the winds, but I feel like there's a tendency to play up. He said it's because he was a national figure but, like I said this is a guy who took money I'm a pro Assad organization? Now he gave it back after it came under media scrutiny. You know kissing itch. After he lost his seat in Ohio. In Congress said. Oh, maybe I'll, run in Washington State like he's a little bit of a he's, got a reputation. It's just it's. Just a lazy has a reputation yeah, let's, let's revisit a little bit of that narrative that you mention Claire, because we've seen a number of races that have been cast as this represents the establishment. Democrats versus progressive democratic wing- this has been cash.

Last I tell if it's a fair assessment or not as well as actually a race within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Yes saying I, you mentioned Warren versus Sanders, so how Significant! Is this as a symbol of just where the Democratic Party is in general I guess it is significant. I think that the place where kiss in edge is going after Cordray um is a Cordray. Is more gun Lang, and so in these debates kissing it has been wearing or one debate h war like an a pin with an f on it to signify his like an r, a F rating. So I guess you're fighting That, like that's an issue where he's trying to differentiate himself in trying to say I'm more progressive than Cordray but yeah, certainly interesting that there I run a progressive person now I in some ways it also might speak to not the Ohio Democrat party is in, like the poor state that other day,

parties are in, but maybe it has less of a maybe it's. It can build more from a new place because it has you know they have. Won the governorship in awhile? You know, Republicans have really been dominate, on a certain level in the state, and so maybe they like listen. We can kind of have a fresh start I mean some of you know Bill O'Neill, who was in Ohio Supreme Court Justice. I just feel like they need to shout out this small another mini scandal. He tweeted about how he had with fifty women like there's just a lot of it. Like a lot of little like people, gain traction in this Mary, maybe our little who maybe, if the party and stronger. Maybe you wouldn't be getting what he tweets as a Brad Kerr. As I can't remember the context, and ultimately, the context was not important. Just like we haven't even gotten to my favorite scandal. Yet, which is this later in the next day and the next. Ok, will get there in a second, very

There are some other races in Ohio. So it's clear, you don't give you a to to talk about those there's some house races. What should people have their eye out for? Well, I think Ohio, twelve is the one that a lot of people are keeping I on. It is a election. The republican representatives T is, is and so it's an open seat. It's an incredibly tradition, only republican, and now it, but I think it has what some of those it's it's a sort of like wealthy or well educated white suburb of Columbus, that that's the sort of demographic of the of the district and those are kind of the people that we become reluctant trump voters. So I think, there's more of a chance at that, but Democrats, EC. Canada could have a good chance there and then there's a similar race going on similar districts, demographic in Ohio, sixteen yeah fun fact about that race. I was excited

see that former Ohio State STAR Tony Gonzalez is one the republican candidates, who he's about. My agent was friends with one of my friends, older brothers, and I remember being at like back to the Garden Christmas Party, I remember being in a basement and like a basement House party and people trying to take surreptitious pictures of Tony gonzalas like what was in huge, no, he was infamous for sleeping in an oxygen tent, I'm really tickled than this. But this it's full circle from my college days, the broader point stands that these two just sort of up in the air want a special action, one just a both Ohio. Sixteen is the internet allows, but they have it in it's a mixture of sort of rural voters and then some suburban white voters. Both also have more establishment friendly. And it and then kind of more extreme.

Jim Jordan, whose co founder of the Freedom caucus in Ohio in native Ohioan endorsed candidates? Those are two I would watch to see you know so. Twelve district has a five hundred and thirty eight partisan lean of our plus fourteen. The 16th district is r plus seventeen, so these are both districts that are red, but you know, Democrats have been outperforming in special elections by one thousand six hundred and seventeen eighteen points. These are you know the difference between a good candidate and not so good candidate. Take the difference and just to give their names. Teaberry who's, the outgoing guy in the 12th district, is supporting a more. I guess. The the more of Roy Balderson is a state senator and then Jim Jordan of the House. Freedom caucus is porting, Melanie Lenahan, so she's kind of like the term papers person. Let's move to North Carolina. There are no statewide races, but some interesting house races further down the ballot but apparently make his favorite scandal

you know I got complete. I got with that now I got. I got you it's actually. I missed my chance to talk about it, ITALY in Indiana, Caroline isn't that interesting anyway, so in Indiana there was this story about. Key. Does memo to his drivers? Have you guys seen us know oh about like this kind of read it. It's a memo supposedly leaked by the Messer campaign. If you driving Rokita around the district for the day, it's an eight page memo that was given to them. That is freaking insane. Like. You would think this guy was. You know, president of the United, something it's like okay reading like contact. No, it's it's not that far from that. Actually, okay, you have to bring his toothbrush and toothpaste, but also stock in tote around the district, a twenty item supply box that her Kita staffers call the football. That's it there

that's their the football exactly so not the nuclear football case of emergency housing projects. This doesn't seem that crazy hell, I'm not doing it. I'm not doing a good job, I'm not legal body. Man, sorry keep going make sure you pull the car far enough forward that exhaust fumes won't get. In the garage, my God there may be an angel retentive empty the trash bin. If there's anything in it, you have to do that in the morning and then, when you drop them off like this I say what you're going to say. I think I agree with you. I think this is like an angel retentive assistant who is like. We need to make sure that all of this is covered because I have a lot in turns rotating through Imbaba Box. For me, maybe this sign MIKE at that I would be a tyrannical, cannot right handed it like. I think it's very worrying that make doesn't find this appalling, but did you I mean? Let's just six dude, don't you think people like kind of abuse their systems in this way pretty regularly? I luckily the

I was an assistant for awhile and I had a very, very lovely boss, but I think I know that some people get like really just like move. And last thing, though, I was an assistant at the at the New York Times no answer from getting coffee. It is the best way to tell you not to learn about people. How do they treat the lowest person on the totem, pole, okay, Unix is simpler. For you know, I worked on like the national death, the farm whatever so so. That concludes coverage of the North Carolina. We will be covering them on the site tomorrow. So actually, let's talk about that Michael we're liveblogging tomorrow we're going to have lots of coverage on the site. So what should people expect so will launch at like five hundred and thirty exposing Indiana close at six in some parts of state, seven and then the rest of the states close at seven hundred and thirty

so we'll have a you know the whole gang liveblogging from like five hundred and thirty to let's say nine or ten at the beast. It depends eastern yeah. It depends. You know how what results come in when but now come check it out it will. A lot of fun and then, in the mean time, maybe you can tweet at us and say if you haven't a clever name for tomorrow's primaries, we perhaps will names and If you have any. If you have any questions you want answered on the live blog at five hundred and thirty, eight politics: How about the May seventh primary two thousand and eighteen, that's what that's what I called them actually in the amount which I read in full could email. Actually, I skimmed it but ok, Let's move on up next we're going to talk about what is going well for President Trump, but first let me tell you that this weeks, podcast is brought to you by at one eight hundred flowers, let's be real Your big mother's day surprise consists of one well crafted text message, no matter how well crafted it is. You probably need to go back the drawing board as soon as possible. Moms deserve much more than just emojis. Do it right?

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ordinarily, that president, if it were Obama, if it were Bush, if it were bill, Clinton, would be getting a more credit from the media than I think Trump is I to be it's. Crazy, like it hasn't gotten more attention I mean in general. I kind of I thought North Korea to the downside for Trump with getting a pension is as a story that has extreme contact, outweighs potentially a lot of things that people talk about from the back when he was tweeting deliberately so forth yeah. I thought I'm I'm! You know sites right. You know when we had Ali on the spy castle, raider. Five. Thirty, eight correspondent, you know he and I to now. The schedule is like well from a game theory: standpoint trump is actually little bit you're, dangerous n Korea because he's unpredictable and therefore we actually is able to exercise leverage more rich! This, like super predictable Obama tradition. Foreign policy, where you're very kind trained by diplomatic norms,

Your moves, are very decibel right where you don't. I still have a lot of leverage goes like the threat of like actually using military force. Creation is maybe not that kredible right. So I don't know, and again it seems like a big story that hasn't gotten a lot of coverage. I agree that Trump hasn't gotten enough credit for the pretty diplomatically radical move of agreeing to talk with North Korea. I mean in the same way that, like Obama, Obama got a lot of credit from. I think this is, the reverse situation of IRAN. Obama got a lot of credit from some Democrats. Are my progressive democrats? 'cause I was against. By saying, like listen, I'll talk with her on an Republicans were like this is crazy and now the no one's really saying like it's a good idea that Trump is talking to the North Koreans when maybe a different Republican would have gotten more praise. I think no saying it's a it's a good idea or knowing it's not a lot of people are saying, like I'm saying saying like he should get credit for. This is a a good idea, but I think some of the

I do was made on that. I think we're some of the tempering of people's praise. Perhaps we have people who would praise him put their praises tempered because Trom doesn't have didn't have when he agreed to this. Like a I can't member, if Tillerson was gone at that point drop currently on the way out yeah I, There is a south korean ambassador, which is pretty important. A lot of people are worried about the fact that there may be are clear preconditions to the talks, so there are actually quite a lot of substantial concerns surrounding the actual talks themselves, but the idea that Trump opened up the the of talks is something that I think is I mean I don't know if we'd be reading about it if Hillary Clinton or President or if JEB Bush were or president, or we almost certainly wouldn't right, wouldn't be really

about this is a win or we would be reading it wouldn't be. Reading about n maybe would be reading about N Korea talks in general, or maybe they wouldn't be happening this suit. I think that's right, but look. This is a subject that I feel very uncomfortable like. I don't have a good sense of whether these whether Trump has negotiated these talks so that they're on good footing for the for the right, and I don't have a good sense for how meaningful just getting to this point is, and both of those criteria are ones on which you would you would want to give Trump amount of credit. Depending on the answer, but to Nate's point, I mean the the larger context that the trumpet, Asians operating in is where some of that credit comes in so so I guess I'm trying to get a sense of how much of these things interconnected people, the media or the public, don't feel

some parts of the Trump administration going well and so that hedges their desire ability to give credit another so should we be able to disaggregate, and well we've done with. We definitely should be able to separate them, but they're not separated in the sense. I don't think the your vet large is sophisticated enough. That most of the coverage you'll see of Trump doesn't have enough expertise on North Korea in particular to make a lot of these judgment right. So the only options available to much of that many of those reporters and editors and how to include myself here right, though option available is to just praise Trump for for it for the talks in general right or not cover it or cover it more straightforward right, but the yes in Trump other problems in the media's general kind of dislike of Trump precludes that kind of just general praise option, so so they're kind of lost, I think just avoiding it or or covering it just straight straight forward, Mr For

yeah it doesn't, it doesn't fit the narrative of like kind of a administration. It's like kind of stumbling around right again, ironically enough. This could be a case where the unpredictability of Trump actually and this important, although somewhat specific context, proved to be beneficial strategically. But, like my big thing is like people talk about like media bias, I think their actual, like. Seven different forms of media bias that we should tax them at one point: go right up in real trouble, but you know it's the same media that, on the one hand, will engage in equivalency and downplay things. That Trump does that are very normal or unusual, or that would have been a gigantic deal. You know only their hand. You know there are lots of times when Trump maybe doesn't get much credit. Like his campaign. Never gets very much credit for what it did in the Electoral college, for example and that was I remember at the Harvard managers, copper you know Kellyanne Conway, with Trump campaign felt like we accomplished.

It's pretty amazing, where we won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by which they want talk about, but still like you know, We credit for having insight to target white working class voters in the state was all about how Clinton screwed up right, and so it's kind of like the expectations for Trump, are so low. I think, sort of lots of reasons and like that plays out in different the complicated ways in different contexts. What else Add to this list of things that are potentially going well or that we feel like we should be discussed this as Trump the economies connecting really well. It was very positive on Friday and so MIKE we've sort of slipped into media conversation here. Should we separate out the way the

Media is covering Trump and the way the public is seeing Trump in other parts of other elements of the Trump Administration the public is seeing is when well, I was actually going to use to how the public sees Trump to push back on the idea that the media maybe hasn't given Trump enough credit type I went through, and I collected Quinnipiac ask these questions of voters of like do you approve of the way Trump is handling the you know. Russia gun foreign policy, immigration right and if you look at all these N Korea, by some margin, Trump gets the best marks on fifty two percent of people approve forty two percent of people disapprove of the way Trump is handled N, Korea right now, five thousand two hundred and forty put so that's plus ten on that might not sound good, but compared to his overall numbers, which are four thousand one hundred and fifty two that's pretty good and it's only better it's- really the only issue on which Trump gets a net positive marks, so what it. What are the other issues that are sort of in that at least break? Even

so yeah, so taxes, terrorism, economy, Syria, those are kind of close to even China is a little worse than forty. Two percent of people approve the way he's handled China. Forty eight percent disapprove and then, like Russia guns foreign policy immigration, trade all get that negative, but like North Korea, pretty good marks. In an era when things are really partisan and polarized. So it's not like people, don't know but I mean, like the media, must be covering it to some extent to some extent He doesn't have the story. Sort of one hundred and eighty degrees reversed in some sense, and one and let me give you the sense in which I mean that right trump right now gets comparatively good marks. On the economy and on foreign policy. Traditionally, when we, that if a president is seen as successful,

what's two areas, then he must be really popular right. Fifty five hundred and sixty I percent approval rating overall cruising toward reelection. You know and said Trump is at forty, one percent and maybe I'll get you to forty. Two percent is up a little bit right, so in some sense of this or, like, oh my god. No one cares about all this violation of norms. Maybe the people do and let's wait against things that would ordinarily make Trump a pretty popular president. But I don't know you know I I think that's definitely the case. I mean Trump. If you look at these issues, Trump gets good marks, an untraditional with what they just said. These big things, but like very clearly, you know, if you ask people, do you think Trump is on do you think, he's you know helping the USS image? Do you trust him on this and he gets super bad marks. I mean people care about that stuff, Trump's approval rating is picked up a little bit. It's around minus ten right now is not approval rating. It was about minus twenty,

at the beginning of the year do the things we've been discussing affect that, can we draw a line and say: ok, maybe decent marks on North Korea is what's keeping his approval rating a little higher than where it was even a few months ago he said being, as erratic radic issue was before, like he has. Done anything like the travel ban lately, he's been having some Muller investigation stuff, but I think I think the firing stuff has become kind of normalized like that to the course of business in the Trump White House I mean, I think, in some ways people are kind of getting used to his rhythms as president and that perhaps that accounts for some of the stuff- and maybe he received in some people's minds- he's preceded a bit. I don't know like it just because some of the noise of like firings and the mall, becomes the regular thrum of the news and not the thing that you're overly worried about

to know as if Trump has gone from thirty nine percent to forty one percent. Does that reflect just two percent of people shifting or is it reflect like thirteen percent people shifting one direction at eleven percent? Shifting the other, you know, I wish pollsters did more tracking where they track individual respondents over overtime 'cause. I want to see if 'cause. You can easily mistake translated directions again, you have kind of North Korea. And Syria and the economy really big deals in ordinary political times, those three things as major foreign policy actions. Economy you know and on the other hand, the Russia investigation maybe getting worse. I guess a little bit less erratic like kind of the way in the eyes that tweeting as much. Maybe he is, I don't know about going after Mauler Mart going after Muller, more not quite sure how that plays exactly. But maybe it is kind of two things that are like pull. Toggling in kind of canceling out a little bit

I do this. I guess I guess my biggest point is just like look. If Trump wins realize or if democrats fail to take the house, no one, really be all that surprised, because the economy is good. Three point: nine percent unemployment people would call that very good. You know he has maybe a couple of foreign policy accomplishments now and in the mid term, Democrats have to win. The house will talk about this more at some other point by somewhere around seven points in the popular vote. Maybe it's five it's nine, but, like you know those three things make for a pretty powerful set of defenses, and so no one should think that, like anything about Trump is a gimme for Democrats Trump MIKE, I'm sure you've noticed this tweets a fair amount about how the press treats him unfairly

so how effective? Purely as a political talking points is that line you know, I'm not getting enough credit for the things that are going well, I think it's super effective, accusing people of by s alters their behavior. We saw that with call me. Half of the stuff coming did was because he was afraid the F b I would be accused of bias right you could argue, Trump is in the White House right now, because people queued certain people of bias, an they overreacted too, and it effects. I mean it also effects peoples. Whenever you tell someone your reporter, they always ask which side- and it is that is not a thing that happens at it. I'd agree five years ago. Whatever Well it more recently. It's a pathology. I mean this pathology is behind how certain news organizations make and then you do I mean. Then you do have places like the Huffington Post, which are very clearly pointed.

If you or or than likely, how they're concerned like three beacon and places like that, but the pathology like avoid perceptions of bias explains a great number of the flaws with contempt I can put the Journal NBC actual bias for six playing. Well, I so the other flooded twice in a kind of cancel out different direction. It also that it it it lands. You know, let's do the NBC story last week where they had to correct something where they said that Michael Collins phones are being wire tapped. It turns out that wasn't the case and that they've gotten wrong. It was a different kind of way to track his phone calls. That didn't involve listening in this. In that story, isn't great no one likes to issue a correction, but it becomes something more than like a correction. It becomes. Are rest or evidence that the media is out to get Trump evidence like more evidence of partisanship of the media, and so everyone is on tenterhooks. You know when it comes to these just just

publishing stories that are inflammatory well, and I do want to be a little cover held up. We have a lot of criticisms of the media. I think this tendency to to work. You know over correct for perceived bias as one of them, but, like those of very different than Trump's critique of the media, which is very wrong and incorrect and and gets not only the reality wrong, but the motivation for that supposed reality wrong but again yeah thinking about this as sort of trump strategy. Nevertheless, see that's ineffective strategy. If you look at right wing media, I mean this notion of Trump derangement Syndrome, which is something often point out to make one is an effective fuel for saying: look the media freaking out about Trump, so I mean in a way that's a win in of itself is creating that

No, I don't I don't like gray yet that you also don't see right wing media making this critique that much making the critique of the critique that, like Trump, is not getting enough credit for North Korea. Oddly enough, my wrong it's not like I mean- and I understand that there's like a cautiousness because, like this, could spin in a negative way in many different ways right, but it's like the partisan media or the cause, a partisan media. If you wanna call Fox NEWS that it's not like they're reluctant to give Trump credit for other things, but it's like it's like the whole platform is founded on grievance and that here, some of which might be a major freaking friggin accomplishment? I guess you're some republican senators, who want to give him reps as Nobel Prize right, but it doesn't seem like like if I were Sean Hannity, I would be like yeah man, this guy, like a cheap, what no other democrat or republican President did in media is ignoring it and the

ignoring it, you know but like, but because there's only particular grievance there per se it doesn't get as much attention as like the mall stuff, or I don't know it's interesting to me. One last question heading into the midterms returning to some of the races that were watching, do we think that candidates can republican candidates can Some of these things that are going well while distancing themselves from what's not or is it just going to be on with Trump? Are I'm not there was going to be nuance in it, but I think it depends on the state. But right now in the next couple of months, you're going to see a lot of republicans say to their republican primary electorate. I'm with the President look how well things are going and then, once you get to the general, maybe you'll see people tweak things a little bit to say: listen I've had these so and so bone days going back. You know two decades I'm a conservative I'm here to like be sensible. I'm on the

You have common sense, that kind of bullshit you know so, but right now, I think in primaries. You want, if you're republican speaking to republican primary electorate Hank presents doing a good job for the country and I'm with the president. I guess I think that, like Republicans, LG will stand behind Trump in the general election. Two I think the goose is too depends on. The state depends on the state, but in swing states. Maybe for Governor's. Maybe the governor's have more room to distance themselves, but if you run or Congress. I uh Oh it's a little bit late to distance yourself from from Trump something we will keep our eye on we're going to rap for today. Thank you, Nate Silver. Thank you. Thank you, Claire Malone, Thanks Dan. Thank you, Michael Cohen,.

Pleasure, my name is Jody. Afghan Galen group is our producer, and normally here is where we say that Tony Chow is in the control room, but Tony Chow is not in the control room because, as of this morning, he is a new father. So congratulations to him and his wife Janice really cute kid very cute name, unlike unlike most kids, really cute

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