Given the vices none I am. Basically data victorian. My name's Nigger home and data is my only right, I'm sure I have as a good twitter. There is now only thy incidences day and age. How bad device have to be the council vice hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen Druke, and we have a treat for you all today here in studio, we have to Nate's so Prayers are definitely familiar with one of the Nate Nate Silver hi how's it going

They are with both come on come on our audience I mean I'm pretty sure their familiar with both, but just in case also here with us, is Nate Cone from the New York Times. He covers elections and pulling with the data journalism outfit. The upshot welcome and thank you so much for joining us thanks for having me and also, of course here thus is Clem alone. Senor politics rider, Heckler, hey make it is out today, but so let me explain why we have to needs on the pot cast today. So the New York Times in collaboration with Sienna College recently released a round of battleground state pulling. That shows a much closer twenty twenty general election contest in swing states. Then you might expect, if you just looked at national polling, that peat our interest in the five thirty eight office, because it gets it a big feet from the twenty sixteen election, the split between the popular vote and the outcome in the electoral college. So today we're gonna, dig into the times latest pulling discuss, who might have an advantage in the electoral college and twenty twenty, and also talk generally about the state of the democratic primary. Looking forward to that

thanks again for being have, as has so exciting. It's very exciting glad you share the excitement. So, let's begin with you and I think we're gonna have to go with like last names. Their rights are our call. You cone I'll call you silver, WWW, Clare Thinking, economies alone, you I'm alone is actually lorries at very low, latterly moments of great and we got a silver either great name. We comb and we got Miller with silver coin him alone. Now, that's like a ban cake signal, basketball, who's gonna play like the banjo and something

like a poker FIFA. Ok, so neat cone, you pulled a hypothetical match up between the leading Democrats and Trump in six swing. States that are Michigan Pennsylvania was content, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, you found Biden leading Trump by two points on average sanders tied and Warren trailing by two points on average and all of those leads. Our deficits are within the margin of error. So were you surprised at how close that result was given all of the national pulling that we ve seen? That shows a much wider Rais D. I was definitely surprised. You know if I, when we started this project, we actually had some second thoughts about whether it was a good moment to be conducting. This pulled concern that it would come back and trumpet be self overpriced would be so far behind there wasn't much. Point of peering into some the groups. We are interested in looking at like undecided, her persuadable voters. I suppose that one critical question is what kind of national pulling result would we expect based on these numbers in my mind and twenty six,

These states were four points to the right of the country and twenty Eightth. They were five points and at least by our estimates- and this is more debatable I suppose- was not based on a hard result. We think that among registered voters, the Gatt crucial but more six points, so I think that, based on our estimates, you would have me Warren up by two to four points: national based on these numbers of man, which of those three and raising of the losing electoral college- and I think they are, as you would say, that Joe Biden was up, some between sixty eight points nationally, depending on which of those three options like Eddie, you preferred, and that would be short of most of the of the national plans that we have at the moment so Malone and silver. How does this job and we'll begin with UK? How does us gibe with your conception of the waste nationally? Given I mean, I think, ABC jested pulling

all of these candidates were up by double digit over truck nationally yeah. I mean, I think, it's as someone who spent a decent amount of time and, like the MID west this summer and type has talking to Ohio relatives constantly there is a certain sense it I do have, where the races a lot closer on the ground, and even if you talk to people like was confident Michigan who are Democrats right and who, who might be inclined towards the politics of war, and there is a huge kind of strategic element going on in the primary and so there is a constant, but will my in our neighbours a couple counties over vote for Warren or vote for Biden and most and will say either vote for Biden over Warren So I do think that there is a that, can't be between, like the progressive activists, conversation and frankly, like the twitter conversation, which I think a lot of campaigns are tuned into an. The actual what people are feel on the ground and this kind of goes to the past three or so years of democratic politics, which is the

Britain Window shifting idea, The rise of China Sanders Medicare for all litmus test. You know so there's a progressive ism. Bubbling up, but also a lot of places just like their old school democrats, and those places happened to be the electoral college. Tipping point states so yeah. I think this is pulling, is very interesting and jobs and I think prickly. Some of the impeachment stuff was interesting in people wanting to open an enquiry, but not not necessarily impeach the president, which kind of speaks to. I think the fuzzy ness that exists in some of these places the natives richly hearing what this would mean for the national picture, because we have more things to compare that against right. We don't have a lot of swing, state polling, How does this compare with how you're thinking about the state of the general election is not thinking of unease over by government about the primary right now? So yet, if, if you infer from these poles, ok, Biden up to issue in these states. There are limits to the right

national average, it would not be shocking to see national poll showing fighting five or six points ahead. What kind of wealth in the range of so the lowering of the range, but there's a range that ranges from low single Liter Biden to mid double digit seeds, mid teens. Basically, at this point, it's hard to nail down the electorate. The distance between like adults for Sportster go difference likely. Voters is pretty important The question is impart like: what's this mean for those kind of states in the Midwest Michigan Pennsylvania was content in particular, because some of the results, that bad the Florida result for Democrats as a result that you might not mine by plus to Arizona Biden plus five needs are smaller sample. Size is right, so you know, but If Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are problematic in for Democrats, then the math becomes a lot harder Electoral and you might wonder about what about of Arizona plus five and forty two plus two then went about Texas or Georgia. You start asked questions like that, and this pole also,

I owe you pulled Iowa separately. We did and those rules for kind of close, and you might expect in Iowa so kind of bits there, like twelve different ways to interpret it. One thing I'd like to know is: are you guys time you do like, national pole. I think we are planning to do in actual. At some point, I also suspect that some plan for intervention in the texas- we just that it's the tv point out that

up five in Arizona. That's a nine points when from Donald Trump, four point when and Ireland from one Texas by nine so elicits are there are exactly the same demographically, but in terms of the way we would expect them to be trending. I think that you would expect Biden to be running well ahead of Hillary Clinton. Thereupon registered voters at least, and that would imply a pretty tight erase there. I measured some of those pulling, but specifically ABC in the Washington Post, came out with set of national Paul's last week, showing buying up seventeen warrant up fifteen and centres at fourteen over Trump cards. That's just one pole, just as this is just one poor, but do you think that, given how different your picture of the country

twin states and even the national environment works that there's something that your pulling is picking up. The other poles might not be picking up. I do think, that's possible. I think that our pulling has a lot going for amounts. The reason why we do it I'm sure every pulsar will give you a similar answer, that penal advances their case for why they do things where they do to give us on this. So we we have the advantage of having the right number of registered Democrats and Republicans in every state. We pay a lot of money frankly to reach turn out. Voters who are typically highly under rappers. Political surveys and most poles don't wait on that either, and so we both over sample the man way on it. We also are stratified our samples which means that when you look at a pull a pencil mania, for instance, not only do we have the right number of Democrats and Republicans, but we have the right number of registered Democrats and Republicans in every region which, when we, if we were to random sample would actually not necessarily work out and would lead to. Some very odd has the potential to lead to some

diocese and we also wait on education, which I should know is true of all of them, those that were comparing to right now. It is not true of a lot of the state poles still and we are also in the lower end in terms of our educational estimate of the composition of registered vote. We're lower than what the census current Population survey says, because we were- and the american community. Sorry that's a super nerdy, but I'm assuming that this kind of thing your audience is interested in you say you are right, we love it and about because you know not only is our estimate that the electorate is less educated then has that is assumed by a lot of state pulls also little less educated than some of the state polls that our accounting for educational Market University survey or something and we actually just released- are pollster ratings. Here at five. Thirty, eight and then your time, Sienna called pull, did very well. You received in a plus graduation. Thank you, but hearing this in terms of thinking more deeply or just in a different way about the educational makeup of the electorate.

Silverwood. What do you think about that strategy as a polling strategy? to the point of paying more money It better samples of voters who are missed by normal poles, is something that I think was what, frankly outline strategy of the Trump campaign last time around right red reaching some of those local voters. He had a lot of so he was getting people. So maybe there is something to the fact that were in a where politics, I think, become more part of the mainstream and therefore you might have people who are equally to turn out to vote who weren't part of the last couple of elections, equals right, and so I do think its interest, to have that as part of the simple

because I think that was a complaint from the twenty. Sixteen election is that those voters were missed and that that was a problem with the poles are in our twenty sixteen polling. We had centrally the same sampling approach. We have been able to refine our approach with all the data that we have collected overlap, who cycles, but the fundamentals are the same and in our final pulls we found that these voters, who did not turn out in twenty sixteen, who having voted in primaries were very different than the demographically, similar voters who turned out and recent cycles and regularity, and we think that The reason why it listen twenty sixteen Opel's are better for the president in some important states than some of the other pulls out. Rather it worth mentioning right. We ve kind of driven home that the polling error in two thousand sixteen was not larger than the polling error in two thousand twelve. In fact, it was slightly smaller nationally. But when you look at specific state there were state level errors, which is where we ve lost kind of who was going to end up winning the electoral college. I don't mean we five hundred and thirty eight or you enter times what kind of resignation the media etc

those like they were errors that, when an opposite directions in twenty sixteen right, there actually states California how many people were Clinton beat her polls by several points. I think she I have also been her poles in Texas in Arizona some that emerge kind of more multicultural states right, so international poles, if she be supposed by five twenty California that actually can a bout of scale are a little bit for underperforming in the MID West Minnesota If you like for me, you know I'm thinking in terms of more or less like how do we build a model? my principles are okay. Well, we kind of average pulsing other we put more weight on the higher quality poles, including obviously Cnet near Times, right with a lot of that kind of how to wait and how to calibrate having a more diverse set of perspectives and totally just waiting for the most important or not most important, like the highest quality pole and I don't really care how this

This may, because in the long run, we neither tarred deputy interaction of polling bias, ripe, that's a different perspective and we actually have to it. Conduct a poem. In last thing we want any pollster. Do. Is this oh, we have to worry about asks in the long run by some kind of unpredict. How much time till we did last time right and usually when you kind of see that, what year in twenty eighteen, where are the polls for unbiased over all of the word again problems in particular states and districts, some which resembled two thousand and sixteen right? There probably results frankly from some pollsters under Open seating for the last election and not changing enough and, frankly, maybe other pollsters overcome they need for last time and a kind of tends to Kennedy even I can ask for just for clarity, far listeners. So in the states that code has pulled the these battleground states

where there are problems and what were the problems in the polls in the states from twenty? Sixteen, maybe just it to talk specifically about where their certain groups that were being missed, Justa just to give people a sense. Clearly, if you're not waiting for education, then you have problems right, that's kind, I think the kind of fundamental sin of polling and twenty sixteen was like education to become a big divide, obviously how people soon on college, educated loaders might have been missed. Miss him, he would no more right. I mean, I think I know if they're not picking up the phone is off and if we didn't wait by education and start a round states forty five percent of our respondents. What about a college degree? We think that in these states threatened voter populations by thirty three percent with a degree and that's a big, and I would know by the way this correlates not only with the general direction, are in the Midwest, but it does nationwide as well and are pulling the spent less educated,

Voters are more democratic, non voting, hispanic voters or more democratic. So if you have a pull that scrapes, the top of the universe of tension, small, its high turnout, voters, primary voters, affluent well educated voters. You would get the kind of pattern that silver has described here, you would have an underestimate of Democrats in the Sun Bell, because, missing the most democratic spanish voters in your you'd have the reverse that the flip side of that in the matter, tonight. I would note that in the pulling that we've just done, we similar pattern that plays out here, where we think that, very well known, registered voters in Arizona because we think binds fifty points among hispanic voters there and we think that amount. I leave. Odors is adapted shrinks while in the Midwest. We think that way. You do when you play the likely vote or get that by next improve standing in Michigan cuz. We think the low turnout, voters there are, I'm not sure what their conservative actually but they seem to like

at least an ore sample. They are very supportive of the president, so Nate silver. You said that, like kind of it's, it's not your job to pick through the different poster strategies and ways that they weigh a ton, What the poultry is, give you the cone. You are now supposed to write, looking at the way that you do things in comparison to how other cultures do things. Do you think other pollsters are still making the mistakes of twenty sixteen, or do you think that, Austria's have learn. Some lessons I think there are some pulse. Was that of learn some lessons on names. I think, the Monmouth poll waits by education and that's what that's a change for the better. There are some staples that rely on random digit dialing, that way by education I do not see very many pollsters that appear they making a special effort to reach voters who don't have a track record of voting, which I think is at least in our data, always shows up as something that is important,

but she's moved down the educational spectrum. The low educated voters, who don't vote often are very good for the president among white voters and the reverse for non white voters. And I think that a lot of the most prolific state pollsters- and I would include in this by the way some of the online pulsars that are now releasing national. State level estimates based on the national approval data, sir, and based on a variety of different factors that they may have a particular challenge reaching worldwide. Voters want to pick on people, but you like this morning, Council civics, poles. You know they say that the present approval rating has even in Nebraska right now, like K, maybe but like. Maybe that just indicates that there is a real challenge of getting to a certain kind.

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but in the electoral college and popular vote, and this is something I know that the two of you have discussed on line at some length: the possibility of a never popular vote. Electoral college split in twenty twenty. So kind of, I just want to turn over to the two of you do think at this point we can say whether or not I republican damage in the electoral college is likely and twenty twenty, my is that right now the president is as wrong about a round states with respect to countries, as he wasn't twenty sixteen. I think that there is reason to think that it could be larger. That split between the yes and Although I've taken a pole- and I don't do much the predictions you know, my instinct would be that I would expect that to carry through for the next year. I think they're, also toys. I can change. I won't list all them, but my prior is that the president will have an advantage in the electoral college. Again I mean like literally what the prior use in the model is right. The plant of miles. You wait like three quarters of the poor

selection and one slash four the election before. That would be two slash three and one slash three. I forget: what exactly is that? What kind of say? Okay, clearly two thousand- and sixteen was a very good year for the president- the Electoral College. But there are some immersion to the mean and actually doesn't well was a better you're for democratic some other people have a candidate who can kind of recreate that about my coalition. So I think maybe it's a question of like where your priors are. You know, last year, twenty teen, if we're election geese, think last year means less election radios like asking so Clinton one. The popular vote by two point, one points, but it had been point state, Was- was constant, which was at what point eight points. So there's already a three point spread. So if you think ok to say much less time than the default is a three point spread which therefore me That four points or five point would not be so preposterous right. If you think, ok, it's three points, but things get scrambled over four years. Therefore, I'm averted more like one or two points can away mentally than it might say? Yeah, then, if I point spread as possible, but like a little bit less likely, you know, I think that

a source of the argument on Twitter back this summer whenever it was like, I don't know like how much precision it's possible to have at this stage without having a lot of different pulsars along different states right. The distinction register it is unlikely. Voters is fairly relevant. Their big pieces of the puzzle like Texas that our economy text gives us some people's like actually quite important, accounting for us, What is Texas looks a little bit worse than other states for the democratic nominee, but it's hard to pull and there's a one in five chance that taxes is really good for democratic. If that's true, then they can easily. It doesn't matter anymore, right and so like I guess, my objection is more like I wouldn't want to try to sound like a man star out right, but doesn't mean you can't like have a valid discussion about the electoral College in like right now, Kona saying right now, I think the present is in a pretty good position of strength in part, because I think some of these voters, or maybe under counter-

Certain poles or their strength is more powerful. Why? I think that the argument that the Presidency doing better in the battleground states me is nationally, I think, would probably hold regardless of methodology. Like don't you know the civic shatter the you know. The service civics acts are its of x ray the one in it. Here here. That's it the queue year. They had their he say Tracker and NEO right now. They think the presence poor rating is even in Wisconsin or whatever. You know. I think that the x it pull the presence of ratings minus four in Wisconsin. I think that, regardless of where individual pollsters you know make their mouth watchful choices? It seems to me that most of them show a persistent edge for the present and silver you're saying it's a bit too early to feel that confidence are two slightly different things right. One probably saying that I am less willing to be moved off. My priors By the way that you should expect there to be

I'll put me out his profound is and in twenty sixteen and is hardly more uncertainty in then, if you kind of take all the overlap in different states that are correlated in complicated ways than the MECCA interesting, can you some set like conditional on the popular vote. Being a certain number on the democratic winning the popular vote by three point say right. You get a little the problem where, if you increase the GEO people in some areas than areas and are opposite, might actually move in the opposite direction. So it's like that fairly complex, but look at me like that things in our world on social media and elsewhere, you know I mean, if you kind of had to like boil a debate down a mathematical terms. Right, you know, maybe I should be so I think my expectations is two point four point guy and if you like article three point, two plus or minus some number right now, would not really sound that dramatic humanitarian une. So you both think at this moment in time or do we say neat silver, that there is an advantage for Republicans in the talks

right. Now, why not limit rationally? Dont know right now, there's on election man, pro uncertainty. It wouldn't shock me if you had a five point spread. It wouldn't shock me if you somehow had democratic development, College, because it happened in twenty twelve and I don't know what happens if Texas or George, really weird one thing and gum is part. The reason why we we spoke Here- and I think that if you read both of our stuff, you ll notice that it's it's a broader difference and how much the relative weight. We give two things that I I think a lot about. The demographics of these states in that affects my prior think that if you are prickly empirical view of it, where you said: ok, historically, what's the relationship between the actual college advance in the prior election to the one, the next one? You would adopt the same basic philosophy that silver has adopted here and I think that's a totally reasonable approach. When I think about it, I am mindful of overtime- the country has become more diverse. The battleground states are less representative of the country. So to me that means that there's more pain,

the states to move and independent ways. They would know by the way that the fight three model accounts for this in ways that I think are responsible for their electoral college, not quite reduction but not add, or you know, and to support my knife. The rest by the acts are connected with minority ravishing, sending studies- something that's something that's built into the five thirty eight model, important ways down the stretch, and I think that if you accept that that that has consequences for if we think about it now, if you also think that the president appears to be maintaining either his strength, Montenegro, class voters which, by the way, not all poles, agree on, or you just think that the way that the President and the Democrats intended, and pain would be likely or to strengthen that demographic divided. Even it that's my interpretation of the strict respect of strategy, the two parties its mind, Most of the election results that we see, which every election night

every election night in case need to enable its origins in the democratic do better in the subway stated last time that it works in the rural areas. They had last time, and I think that, if you that that broad pattern, we tend to exacerbate the advantage in the autumn, remedial than the difference in electoral college needs over you're, saying that empirically based on local consecrating, you have Prior to that, the past couple of elections, the Electoral college certainly given the twenty sixteen result favours the president's slightly now do things like shift, like White College, educated voters, perhaps going more for Democrats in the mid terms or the presence impeachment inquiry. Does that lay into like your thought process right now, let's break, maybe you some of those here? What are some of the unknown blood in some of the unknown sphere? Listeners like what it? What idling start with a fact we don't into the democratic candidate, would be shortened so how much of trumps relative strength among working class what it was because of him.

Versus Hilary Amene where we kind of figure it out in this pulling in in summer got right. One of the most interesting thing that I read in your piece was: according to this pole, things have not changed since twenty. Sixteen amongst the white Working Class, like the picture today, is the: but it was in twenty. Sixteen that that's what we have, I should it and in fairness, there are national polls that have a different take here. I mean when you see the ABC poster polar the Fox Polar whenever showing the binding. Up ten you, I think the difference between the Biden plus six eight thrive argued. Are poles just in the binding plus ten or more, but the national suggested. Those national poles think that there is a translation. The present strength, my working class voters that we didn't find I do think, though, that in the midterm election that this pattern largely persisted, the Republicans got their white working class at least in relative terms back on board- and I would add that might my personal expectation is that regardless of whether the poles find that vote undecided now that that must have much of it will return to the president. But do you think about a milk I think they're pulling

describes a highly plausible scenario where it's a very close election Electra and then it may or may not be very close in the popular vote. You said, I can't I know it's very funny. The you said. Ok, and nobles right the known announced it to be rounded. Only eleven order knows why we don't even like look at no nominally six months before we would even think about it. You general action sherbet, some other things that people should be thinking about when their when there sit may be trying to inhabit year perspective on this. So we don't know the nominee. Yet what else or what else is sort of rumbling around in another state of the economy a year from now we You know, but like intervening, we don't know the state of certain demographics and how the lean left open, we didn't so one thing that became in our model, at least over twenty. Sixteen was that early on because a mild felt more toward prior early on early on. I think I did she like a small electoral college at four tromp, meaning that it thinks that not the atom favour, but

close racy would be welcome in it with a college, and that grew and became more pair. By September or so right. So if you even throw out the objective it out over like what it pull right now right. There is a campaign, course of a year. It certainly possible that the present Grow stronger are weaker with certain groups. I bethink the precedent of the Kavanaugh hearings is one kind of president for impeachment that actually kind of led to more partisanship, no as much I wonder, of coal- has opinions about like what, if you have turn out of a hundred and fifty five million people are something because voter enthusiasm is quite high like if we get supersaver duper high turnout, cat or even is there even though she risk uses that would help or is it messy in our data and almost What you read from us tarpaulin data, so it in its worth, noting that, although we think it's very good, pulse- can disagree with each other and not certain that we're right, but an hour data as you in

turn out you exacerbate you deepen the division that we're describing here, because the low turnout, white voters in the north, we think, are pretty receptive to the president and we think in the Sun Bell and a non competitive states, not only Are there more low turnout voters, because those are just lower turnout states in general, but we think that those network voters are more receptive to Democrats, low education, hispanic voters Franklin. So when we simulate this, we noted that simulate. What actually happens in elections? You have the bomb adjust plucked out a bunch of low turnout, black voters and out of them the electorate That has a distinct consequence for the electoral about college that is different from a gradual increase, in turn out, but when we just actually increased her. Now we increase the size of the gap between the popular vote and the Austro College in our data. Do you think, then, that in a high turnout, environment Democrats would be better off putting more stock, sunbelt, then the rustbelt I mean our results are registered voters and I think they show that for the most part, you got a full turnout election said

spent in the sun belt, wouldn't look that different, that a state like Arizona might even leap, Frog traditionally democratic states, because there would be this huge influx of hispanic voters into like what their and our pulling. We have the president and, I think, a Leathern. Percent of non voting Hispanics in Arizona. I think that you would think similar in Texas. Potentially, so I think that besides turnout election. If I were a democrat- and I were in applaud now where I think I should invest resources, I would certainly be interested in Texas I'd want, oh, no, whether they would show them weather, but I would I'd be curious because I think that helps them there in the last election. There was a lot. How could they enter the campaign about? Oh campaign is going to put more resources in Arizona and Georgia about hispanic voter in Texas in Arizona what about? What's a black voters in general and black persons, a Georgia, let what can we talk about when we talk about what

will there be a surge alike. Will there be high black voter turnout, because that was sort of theirs depress voter turn, black voter turnout, certain places and twenty sixteen, whether this is a classic as for the candidate, would be hugely important enough. The if, if Corey Buffer became the nominee and did so by exciting I thought is that would have consequences for the actual college. North Carolina or Georgia would move up a list, but I'd say when our Poland, we find very little evidence that low turnout, black voters are particularly and excited about this election or particular excited about these democratic candidates. We actually think that their fairly, I wouldn't say that they support the president, but compared to the to vote there. There at least Trump curious. You know we have as approval ratings in the twentieth among non voting black, I should know by the way, we're not alone on that when we dug into the other national polls from Pew and ties and compile them together. We think I'm an unregistered black door. If it's not the same population, we think the president's approval rating for twenty eight had the presence of rain twenty percent,

of life photos so most didn't have like some name. You propose for like these trump curious younger back. In this vein, I think I think well, there's that that was the fighting thing that people do. Mma MMA popular Like that, I don't know, I think they're into the Trump show. I dont think that when Democrats complain about his conduct really resonates with them, they're not outraged all the time that when you, as did the story, that sort of Doug into the night voters, feelings about. Do you see that pc culture is run rapid. Yes, they did over there were some things that were quite it was not welcome. There is it. There was an interesting, I think you phrases like they were Klute, they weren't like tapped into a certain like establishment Democrat like the cultural, I think the word used for this socialized into Yassin, air people who live in you know Brooklyn or Harlem like or Chelsea like we all do. You know, I think the

live among you know a bunch of people who attended Ivy League schools- and you know we all are familiar with these. Pics of white supremacy and intersectionality and capitalism and so on, and I think that if you were ethically similar voter, perhaps a young thirty five. Old male who went to community college or something that was not that you entered and you're probably barrier like what Erica's white supremacist. What does that about it? And it is totally turn some of them off to the way that you described it. Is that culturally they're not with down but for what it's worth, I think that you know by on on a lot of the issues that we have thought about. Traditional, credit, cultural issues like gay marriage or abortion? I think there are such democrats of show on pc issues that kind of stuff there, not with Democrats, but then on the economic issues there. Like Bernie Sanders right there at least not conservative. The change I dont know that they

I ain't any particular philosopher how to do it. You know, I don't think they're considered socialists or something which sidebar, as is what so interesting to me about the state of the debate of democratic, the democratic primary right now. I think its own training that they're not talking more about the wealth tat stuff, like the things that the party actually agrees on a mean healthcare? Obviously, like you know, certain key throwing themselves in a relief to say, Elizabeth warn people to judge that's. You know, that's good using your standing within the primary, but as a for a party as a whole. The issues that seem resonate with or Trump voters are these economic populist issue So it's interesting that the primary is about this twenty seventeen litmus test of Amerika for our method. One thing, the two nature grit, actually a couple things right: this could be a fairly broad map in twenty twenty or at the very least we don't know. Maybe I can be spiral important states, but those five states are going to be chosen from a group of maybe ten or twelve

We don't really know which ones are going to be quite yet right, sure we agree. We agree on a great yeah. I got it on his like, although it's a very unfashionable argument to make in certain ways. Now you know I ten based on my research. Think that other things being equal, an important caveat, Moderate Canada, perform better and not electoral college. Just kind of in general elections in, like your research show that was truly in twenty, a team, for example every time. Variable and our model to denote parts jeopardy ology. It's really robust right but like that's, not what a lot of Democrats think essentially I think it may be actual from the fall back would be with with non white Democrats yeah. I I expected When we did this play me the poem, the point of doing the survey was to figure out what kind of voters are up for grabs and what they thought high priority it was. We were going to find a bunch of white Working class Obama, Trump, Damn eighteen Salvatore's. He found a lot of younger, less educated voters and I think, they're really interesting. To think about you. If you went to a public,

like I did in a middle class community like I totally know who these people are and it makes sense to me that they are not conservative, but are not in what the college education left has been offering. Can I ask the nights I if it's a broad map wesner's an idea of what the potential states are in play so have at it like Things got really interesting. What's the would be discussed you're, so the sixty polish compensatory was constant. Lord Arizona, North Carolina Texas, georgia- there's some small states and love letter, although so New Hampshire, Nevada. I think it's certainly not safe democratic cuz. It's actually fairly working a slight Minnesota may, in a soda main, the first commercial lifting the rascal The second is that any authority, I think they stand some of the polling- maybe if you bucks into Iowa, if you're the democratic, we swim

handing down- and I perhaps other- how can it probably split between I went so- maybe not a higher, which was a state that went badly for Democrats in the mid terms, swept like eleven twelve states rather other place, some forgetting nothin. That's about right, to my mind, if you don't know whether there will be a big man, I think that if there is a big map, that's the world where the Democrats have an electoral college challenge. I think that the world wear one of those two options becomes clear for them, not the world for the gaps in the popular vote. College knows interesting, so one other thing that I read when we are talking about swing voters where they with who they are was that you actually found that men are likely to be swing. Voters than women and we ve talked on this part cast about you- know non called educated white women, for example, being a swing group. Can you give us a little more detail about why undecided voters at this point in time are more likely to be men than women. I don't think I can be terribly confident about.

The Y on that exactly, I can tell you there are who they are. I have a theory that if you want to be out of the people who are most outrage about the president's combat, tend to be when I think that that, based on the growth of gender gap that space the sort of democratic activists moment women? I think there are signs of that, and I think that, as a result, group of voters who traditionally persuadable and who are women? They know what they think of the present day. Sort of taking themselves out of the group of persuadable builders. That's my theory of the case and I think group of white working class men who are not, both ended by the president and maybe they're traditionally, democratic voters, in fact who on the president side of these sort of post, religious cultural issues for lack of better word of it word for it. And maybe they've entered the undecided category.

More that we're gonna talk about here, broaden out beyond just these head to head poles, but first today's pod cost is brought to you by Casper, say hello to Casper this leap company without regionally comfortable, proud, that help everyone sleep and live better? Their ultimate goal is a world wealth. From award winning mattresses to pillows bedding and furniture Casper is transforming the way we sleep with over fifty thousand five star reviews. It's the most loved and trusted sleep company, so dont lose sleep over finding. The perfect The four layers of premium foam are designed to provide pressure relief for all night comfort me time to decide sleep on it Mattress comes with a one hundred night risk free trial, rest, easy with free shipping and free returns. Get the mattress of your dreams today go to Casper, DOT, com, politics,

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Weeks on end now. So can you just tell us a little bit about what you see as the state of the democratic primary, regardless of who seems the most electoral against Trump? I think that it's an open race. I think that Joe Biden has defied expectations to this point in new, maintaining his twenty seven percent of the electorate. I think that it was Warren, has sort of sort of inexorably gain throughout the year and has plateaued or perhaps even begun to lose a little. Where does she come under additional scrutiny as result of her new found front runner status? I think this He faces a number of challenges from below. I think that Bernie Sanders Used to be fairly strong, I think that he got his weathered his his health, isn't gotten endorsement of ale see. I think that Peat Buddha Judge has the potential to erode her support on college educated as well. He could also trade out the Joe Biden and I think we're entering a really interesting stays in the race, we're kind of going to find out what it is vulnerabilities that the top two candidates have translate into some late changes in the race. My view of it is that

both were uninviting are in unenviable. This means tactically, despite their advantage rise. I think that reason, as people judge. I think that in this that is position, and I with friends both of them Bernie Sanders remains strong, and I think that few Canada, after Sanders. I think that put a judge's going to pry way, both Warren. And an Biden. I also think that, face challenges from other candidates, like you know the Koran Klobuchar, who have not yet materialized, but I think that they'll make a last ditch effort You call that creates a lot of pressure on war and who, I think has vulnerabilities on electability, and I think people are going to begin to think of thought about when they not just our pulling, but just when they see her, come under attack and see what those feel like and look like and in job It has serious financial problems and I think that, as I think that there are a lot of voters who aren't I'm totally sure about whether he'll have what it takes to win and I don't know how the race is going to evolve or the final stretch, but I think that India's earliest,

it's a really dynamic race. Where are the candidates who don't have the lead, have the potential to take it, and I think of the car? For the rest, the map are really interesting and I dont know how that will play out particular on black voters. Intersects are kind of wide open raised that you describe their Clare on the point of Buddhism. You spent the past weekend travelling around New Hampshire. Where him, what do you make of Nay Cones idea of it? He could challenge challenge both warranted Biden. I think it's. A real footage of just doing pretty well in Iowa, and I was on the booty bus in New Hampshire whereas, where he's now, what exactly is the booty bus? It's my name for it. They do not get such as you say that the campaign is not call it that but I think there dear, is ok, do well on our climb up the poles over the next. Months in New Hampshire make a play there and if he does well in this first couple states, maybe you know, like maybe

Momentum will carry him so so my and I think you know to the idea of he could draw from or in and sandals at worn and Biden I mean he draws people from the Biden Camp who want You know the nice young man moderate. They like his military record. They like the idea of cooperation with Republicans and on the war inside they have. Oh he's, smart right, that's the thing so sorry College, it corrects. Yet no, it's kind of pulling their and my question about that possibility. If Buddha Judge starts to start look more and more like a front runner, and this is a path sizing out How does he play in the upper Midwest when you ask his campaign that question right now? They say what people don't know him yet, and so I think interesting. How they'll get to know him? Is it as the a terrier that moderate or is it as frankly, more aid, did he forward ended. It is working.

Gay and am I am- I o k with that, and I think it's a real mushroom are. I think it's about hard. I actually kind of even like calibrate, where the commissioner some is about the premier right now. You know I am little bit more sceptical than when I kind of perceive as the consensus about the ability of a church sanders, build on early state success to build a broad enough coalition to do well to produce. They states, for example, rise up because little judges coalition is pretty narrow, cast too pretty white white collar decayed. Not super do liberal but not super duper conservative Democrats right and that's like you know that might be a good fifteen percent the electorate, it's not a whole lot more than fifteen percent nationwide, and that could be a problem potentially and sanders more. Like kind of you know, you see various signs of resistance, two Warren's candy, see recently. I think Sanders were to be. If this were here,

it is a front runners it was to a tear be your whatever right that you would see, that you would see a lot of movement from what you Skull Party, Elise to say. Okay, maybe we have to support now, because Bernie would be worse right. Things that me. What did you learn about? The primaries is that no concern about a candidate Everett only goes away right. I think centres is run for people to enjoy people to general yeah. What you're dating someone right that the standards of Rome, like a military power reasons, I'm not gonna, call there's the whole theory right that everyone has just one fight over and over again in our relationship. And again in a candidate tie, contain if I think centres has had a very good several weeks. For several reasons. Right, you got these various endorsements from three to four members of the squad. I thought you had a good debate. I think his message has been well but different, indifferent, shitting from war and, I think, warns you'll infringement or scrutiny

kind of four things, putting a burning favor. I do think it again if you were to arise that there are a lot of others were concerned about his health, and that would be a hard concerned to totally bury. I think, potentially you know. Another kind of more empirical question is: how much do the results in Iowa shift? the poles, nationally or in other states. You know the answer to that. Croatia is like a letter like you know, so one reason if you're listening or watching at home, you know I'm going In writing. Lt the site this month, some kind of building our primary fork. So maybe they must have clear danger on model. He won't big eyes out in the end it had something to do with how I want affects the restless, So if you go back to like look at Jimmy Carter, went from two percent national polls to thirty seven percent. Everyone die or something like that right, a recent elections, there hasn't been as much of a shift

crews on island bumping, winning, I wear a bomb, they get some kind of funded off often in New Hampshire, and I kind of also made his way in Iowa Rent John Kerry in this nomination seems a little bit. Two thousand and four is shreds. The worst analogy. Necessarily, it is kind of fun its whole kind of Mercedes about. We need to bring the saviour right. Someone who's, electable, aware else, Now? Just talking Bloomberg now now our time here why it is so we like, if, if there were a big, let's say kind of party elders people getting together like okay, we want it back Cory, Booker or camel hair, us or club, which are the three where it would make me make the most sense right. Steve Bullock are still bullock yeah. Why not? I were both on that unites the governor of Montana. For those of you who don't know crazy

ok, you watch when electable you'd, not technical, Bloomberg, right weeping. My picture like where our people from reddish states or purpose it's where the over performed the national numbers, and that might be the first that you would pick out almost and they're in the race and kind of being ignored? Bloomberg because he's not really running for president, although he did file the paperwork in Alabama Friday cause a big argument by the way cuz. We actually have to have definitions for models and stuff about who's, running and who's, not the plea to MIKE and his team, just better get off the pot make a decision one way or another, but here are cone and Malone I'll. Let you way- and here I mean what do you do- you have anything to say about bloomberg- halfway run for the presidency not really manage yet final, if you got any got lots of money- and you know who knows what he can do without I suppose- but it it- I do not see why he's a particular could fit for these Democratic Party

you'll, see with their own gotta, be Biden two year into killer. It's a really odd plater. Ok, you have to skip the first. Four states were making a super Tuesday play well, a like you're gonna. Do That's a lot of states that you're missing coverage pretty strong super Tuesday Like there's a lot of southern states, there's a protected the vital black voters turn out. I don't like blue has a particularly strong residence with or or like relationships in the black community. Nation, why you can even look at elections in New York and yeah, stoppin, brusquely and also just be billionaire. It. Necessarily, it's not a silly like the right moment for the democratic primary, no shots to Tom style. I don't know I just I'm kind of perplexed by the I understand that he thinks that this is you know,

The top for whatever to media ochre they're not performing wild, but it's an odd it's odd. Think that you are the Savior of in that scenario face value, then it's a trial balloon. I do not balloon has landed over particularly. Full- and I don't know right what largest What I don't you know waited, but I don't think there's a lot it didn't go. How can we go up and the kind of loading out to sea not somewhere in Manhattan, Bahamas or Bermuda Reservation I am alone. Salon really like to know is kind of this discontent with that for leading candidates. That clearly, is not felt. Democratic voters, we asked motors, you like the field than the wrecked numbers are basically tie with the record two thousand eight. How widespread is discontent among again this term party elites right sometimes I can. I think just a bunch of like stupid

people who live on the Upper EAST side kind of thing in that talked to reporters with things organizations because, like the people who live on islands cells right, am I currently they have low, accuse but like in some sense the higher Iraqi was a stupor. You can be right and I think there people who, like often like, are accomplished in their field but like don't really know anything about politics. If you think that okay, hey the answer our prayers is gonna, be MIKE Bloomberg or or Hillary Clinton. Oh you're like you're worried about. You ought to build a democratic kind of village, wouldn't run again, like doesn't really make much sense We question to come here actually so Bloomberg represents somebody who is culturally pretty liberal economically more moderate. It sounded like looking at your pulling there's actually more of an appetite amongst the electorate for somebody who's, a cultural moderate while being economically more,

like liberal or progressive, or something like that, at least on these sort of post, religious, cultural issues like immigration and political correctness or whatever. I think that's right. So, in fact, the part of the field- that's not really being played on more in the democratic primary is literally the opposite of Michael Blue Bird. I dont Michael Buber one thing that I think is is sort of fun to think that has been fun to Mille over and in the last little bit since silver brought up the prospect of democratic nominee. Has the potential to affect the relationships in the electoral college in the popular vote in the next election? Is that I think that PETE Buttigieg has the kind of Democrat who might actually help the Democrats electoral college respect the popular vote in part by alienating. A certain segment of non white in rural and conservative religious the conservative voters in the southern part of tree or under represented in the MID west. You might remember that in two thousand for John We actually had the relative advantage in the electoral colleges better in the tipping point state than he.

Nationwide and that came out campaign that was fought over gay marriage in which shortstop you better among the spanish voters ran up the score and white Working class south. I could imagine PETE Buddha judge treading a sort of other campaigns were playing out. Similarly, in part of the reason Clare brought up maybe in the north, where attitudes but more moderate. He would be defined in the by his experience and you know, being relative, moderate and his military views while he might be about play more prominently in the south, just a hypothesis, sample of identity, be more emphasized in the south would still work to his advantage. No, no! I think it would hurt him a bit in some of these sunbelt states. Where the Democrats count more among the conservative side of non white voters while getting the rasper more enlightened or at least not losing ground the rest. All that much can. I can. I take an interlude to read my favorite detail about MIKE Bloomberg.

From. This is from a twenty thirteen profile in New York magazine by Jonathan Van Meter, who who write vary from profiles, and there were authorised at a Christmas party, You know in the east sixties, on the Upper EAST side and later in the evening. The hosts interrupt me to point out the mayor had just arrived. Did I want to meet them? He goes over to meet him and he his friend thanks him for his position on gun control, without even I'll get the comment Bloomberg gesture, what a woman in a very tight floor, length, gowns standing near by and said, look at the ass on her anyway,

I love that detail, so God like bloom back and that concludes that segment, unmake boomerang home at any rate. Before we do, let you go there's we want to circle back to kind of a couple, big think questions, and this is something that we get all the time from listeners. I was a: u just meant a lot of time and money pulling off these battleground states in head to head pause between possible democratic nominees and President Trump we for years now, almost four years I ve been during this past, have told listeners like a year out from an election. It's too soon to put much stock and ahead had pull dont get caught up in that kind of stuff. So much can change, etc. But you know in your right up of your policies. On average over the last three cycles head to head pulls a year ahead of the elections have been as close to the

no result as those taken the day before so? Do you think the predictability of head to head pulling this fire has become reliably better, or is this just recently bias? I think two things one is the sort of in the same way that my a priors have shifted on the electoral college because of the growing polarization of the country on demographic lines. I think that the poor that the growing polarization the country has sort of ship my priors on how much we should care about pulse. Far from an election Kelly with a well known and come and present, who is extremely solid approval. I think the line in my story, the pulse of and so accurate, is not something that I would expect to be true going forward. I dont think that, as a general proposition that the Poles this I will be anywhere near as accurate as those taken away before. I do think that a few conditions, place now that will lead me to think that the pulling stays at least for a better word actionable, like if I were a democratic nominee, a demo Canada remember democratic campaigner, the president himself, I would look at these numbers

take action on the basis of it. I don't think it's irrelevant. I think that voters have a perfectly good idea these candidates, including the president, and I think that you can act and in part based on this information, there's plenty of time for those actions to change the race. You know nor does with war- and maybe you can start talking to hire capitalist, maybe you can start talking how used to be a republican and you can start talking about how your policies against big corporations are really trying to help small businesses near their ways that you can. You can reboot from here, but I that its information that is founded something for these voters, and I think that, on balance that, in the absence of for them to change that would hold up when you make up yeah, like I mean so, there's a lot of things. I think we say that are kind of first approximation. First proximation is: don't worry about head to head polling a year in advance right there, that, maybe you shouldn't worry about it much and take it with a lot of grains of salt, but when you have cases where you have a polarizing president and a very well known set of opponents, then,

a little bit more attention to it, and we do have those since at least for the top three, it be hired a measure Buddha gesture or messrs someone, a guys, really present, and I thank you, I don't know I mean I think, there's a lot of a lot of belief among Democrat. It's all about turn out and animal persuasion, which everyone knows that the to NATO agree that like actually persuasion is super important, but by Jane Austen Everybody generosity Ah, and like we can debate in the abstract, we abstract how the right you are. How much does that affect your standing right, but you probably should make some effort to avoid positions that are known to be. I'm popular unless they're courtier message right, like I don't think I mean look, people know what where did it gonna get like socialize medicine right, so that might be people with no fur burning the first place, but, like I don't think, Bernie's hurting self relatives I like talking to Medicare for all what is burning without it

burning them restocking about oh abolish ice. I think that's electoral, all downside fur. First Anders. I think enough for warning. We warned us he like a bit more aware. I mean you know you can like centres, you're not in some ways it's admirable. He does like just very frankly that they want to work Warren will head. I dont know what she thinks about capitals and deep down, but you will say no, I you know nothing wrong a billion it's gotta pay their fair share and burial. So we don't need billions in the world right mean billion is not very popular. We must invest example but like, but she does. Some instinct to like you know she put together a Medicare for all financing plan that, like probably involves some degree of hand waving in and some degree of economic I'm not going to take a bullet for the Right when like when like it's like in it, suddenly way, it's interesting that the idea that persuasion is now kind of seen as quaint, I think, by certain partisans and you get a lot of

some four. Let's campaigns like binds and Buddha judges who are kind of in some ways, general election campaigns during the primary, where they're saying we're looking are welcome and that its all about it's kind of about. Like my character, is high, you know, is of high quality. Therefore, I The president and more people will like me and it's about like bringing people into the fold wherein the democratic there's a lot of has been a lot of talk about. You know. People who voted for Trump are race We don't want them in our coalition and its end and some of the idea persuading those voters, the idea that in America Twin an election, you need people, A racist, maybe is kind of like not a popular thing, but perhaps a true thing elect orally, a mere think. You have its complex right I think for a long time. There was a. I don't want to call like a a centrist. Disposition or bias in the media. Right and some people would say: oh yeah, one of them. If they can, it's really far left or far right and like that was because people actually kind of.

No one would ever morning show panel are sent Sonny Way, at least on average, that's what they person would prefer ripe and that person has been challenged. I think largely to the good work you have more transparent where people's perspectives are Currently have more vocally liberal perspective dummy used to, but the empirical finding that, like yeah all things be healthy. But like more moderate, cannot send to do better by marges innocent enough. Like a kind of consent. What's the margins in the upshot polling right, we're not talking about difference of like, in three: it's not like you know. Anyone who, like oh this democratic, witnessed direct, can't right there not doing it right but like could you have a a two or three points? penalty. For a moderate Democrat versus a left wing Democrat, I mean that's consistent with what I think the past research would show right and if, if you have Democrats winning the popular vote eight point, ten vs seven!

and carers, electoral colleges are really come into play if its close within what say, five point where they under that right to be safe, those differences start to become a lot more material yeah. I mean Nate Cone in your pulling. Does it become clear that one path is easier to the presidency? Persuasion verses turn out. I mean we ve already talk a little bit about turn out here and that its not reliably democratic view just boost turn out Democrat when that is like a false idea. What else can we save from your point about this persuasion versions? Turn our debate, so I think, there's a certain segment of persuadable voters who very much fit the category that silver, talking about, they are considered moderates. They think we're in support of left. Their views on the issues are consistent. With that little example pair. They don't want to break up the bank's many of them whole themselves republican. They say they voted in the republic in the past.

Like this is a large group of voters who, I think everyone should acknowledge, probably exist. I like don't like Trump. They don't like trump that much but like they don't mind a policy that much potentially and their will Sport Biden, but not Elizabeth Warrant, then there's abroad, Group persuadable, voters, less educated, not necessarily against those with warns views on the issues more concern on cultural issues, and I think that they only are persuasion targets, but a lot of them. Look like the low turnout, voters, the same basic group of people who do not neatly comport with eider either party ideologically. As a result of that they neither no party they want to vote for, nor whether they should vote because they don't have particularly strong views about candid, too, are trained to motivate them. Devote based on ideological consist of views that they don't hold, and so I think that that what our data suggests that in many cases the two go together, I'm if you're gonna if you're gonna, mobilise and Lord of the poor young working class. You know I don't know

new college student. I think that the kind of since that would could lower than the polls is probably the same one that would be persuasive to a more reliable voter whose you know a factory work Michigan and also ensure food. A vote for, and I think it's gonna go together to relieve things there. Any final thoughts questions: why did your parents name you need This is for both of you and your so the wasps items. And why has some Nathaniel in it, and my parents like an EC name Nate? In fact they want to avoid Nathan. They were quite insisted. I like that Nate Nathaniel Dichotomy and tribute clear, neat silver as Samuel cone. Isn't it does Russia Nathan gone? Why why you know I should have come prepared with the answer that question. I can say, though, that I that my parents didn't call me Nate they called you know, then they called me Nathan Dennis they do, and so do many of my friends who I knew growing up, but oddly

I think this is another commonality through us have in high school debate. I was listed as an eight on the pairing sheets that's how, in a world of debate which ultimately carried with me for some time, I became nickname tonight, we could call your mom right now. Actually, she's on landmines literally in the west, I mean it rhymes with your website that kind of worked out. I didn't even think about that man, first time you face apis said will be called five: thirty, nine five thirty anyway, we will leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us today, nay count thanks Ivan. We make our covers elections pulling and demographics at the New York Times. The upshot figure, of course, to silver and Malone. It's been fun glad we could do this contains route.

My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the control. Room are in turn, is Jake our low. You can get in touch. My email in us at podcast set five thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review and the Apple pie cast store or tell someone about us. Thanks are listening and we'll see you soon. Finally memorized all that closing I've read it so many times, thanks so much, We just have the drop Is that a blog