We model. You talk, no big, where we near my hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics, Parkhurst Andean Drink, I'm needs and this is model talk. A little delayed. Are you distracted by the governance model is pending the work. We have three models house and Governors- Iraq, rebuilt or built from scratch. We haven't had a house in a governess forecast, since two thousand ten, you know, did a lot of work on the Senate forecast. So it's been, turn. Can we say that on the pike asked well yeah, but we should also say what the headline as that the governors model is out now, all of five thirty eight thousand by the time you listen this the government is being published in seven minutes from now.

Not from your now, not from your nose listener, but from our now some will hit a button and you'll now build a sea going to toil forecasts and all thirty six. It think it his states with governors race and that's where we're going to talk about today. When I talk to you for me about the governors raises, you did not seem protection We are interested in and out of love, her lower opinion changed at all. Now that you ve gone through the process of actually creating a model. Yeah me my info, DINA for a while. I was like before the Senate model. I was like. Why are people wasted our time on these Senate Poles right, the house is so much more interesting right. Nose like oh yeah enough House polling, we're really get some some sense. Data, so yeah might interest boxes and wines with my money time. You're spending on that model, yea I put that governs races, are pretty interesting in a couple of respects. One is at individually the races for exam oh in Florida and Georgia, where you have after American Democratic Kenneth running our interesting. The MID West,

interesting where you have a big democratic, come back, it looks like maybe Scott Walker will lose, looks like he's actually printing a bit and are pulling average others at local level. National interesting in the sense that they are like fairly clean test of whether it's a blue wave election or not right with the acknowledgement that partisanship is also a factor in governing wrist. We'll talk that later there's no gerrymandering and governor ships right. You want to stay state there's, no electoral college right. There's no National Council of Governors, and probably as the national debt Societe? But no one really cares about the national governments. Us here and right. So are you winning the big high population and or swing state? in rest for governor is a fairly pure test of what the political environment is and there's a bunch of keys swing, states that have given a tutorial elections. This fall so Here we go any further into that. What are the top line numbers? What you just said, kind of

leads us into the way that the model actually portrayed whose ahead in the race for a man governor ships? I guess it's, maybe that's putting on a describe at the top line. Members are a high, in ninety four million and two hundred and three five million mind blown and what are those numbers me they represent? on average, how many people we expect Democrats to control in the states where they'll have governorship like how many american another will be represented by a democratic and governor controlled by you hook, principle fiddle we're home, fair enough and so that almost two hundred million on one hand, how many Republicans one night, for it when thirty five is all different. If we used to seeing numbers like electoral cows numbers, you know, we got numbers in the millions YO so about sixty percent of the population. We project

there is uncertainty in these projections, like every other protection that we publish, but the average projections about, sixty percent of the population will be democratic control, and so how did we decide to express the governors raises in this way I mean you could have put it in terms of the vote. We can. I ask you least, swear on packets, God, debt cause it's stupid to treat each state as equally important. One not just votes, you can say how many votes you projected democratic governors to get since republican government did Emily a guess. Armada probably calculates the popular vote. Work ass, a man like you know, but Gunnar ships are winner, takes all right, If you lose Ohio by one point, Europe havoc you dont kind of half way down Ohio hi also can be gerrymandered little bit random better. It ain't, no still gonna kill a nearby exile, gerrymandering Jerry. I remember it's the same aspect to the electoral college. Right, yeah, twitter, it winter taken but state lines are unsure. While you can argue you can get to our

It's about like whether the decoders where a gerrymander there should probably just be one Dakota, I feel like north and south, or maybe just north dakota- gets a lot of crap on the spot can usually from Michaela South Dakota. It is quite a bit or interesting. You got like the black hills. You got my Rushmore South Dakota, a pretty good state. North Dakota, on the other hand, is our you're implying. Ok, let's get into the meat of things some individual raises, maybe going in order from closest according to our model, and there are a lot of tight races, it looks like the closest race. Is Georgia, followed by Nevada than Ohio, Wisconsin Kansas Florida, some really key states, their first talk about Georgia. You have Stacy Abrams, who was trying to become one of the first African Americans elected. Actually, I think tea and Andrew Doom are trying to become the first act. Merkin governors in the south, since Douglas Wilder was elected and the first ever in Georgia, and then one must undoubtedly, when

you want to know what an eighty nine footing as odd number gears elections are eighty, nine or ninety. Where think? Eighty, nine, probably she is down by about a point in our forecasts, which means it's a toss up, although if you had to pick, you would have saved camp, has the slightest edge. That's a state where there are contradictory, even term controversy ripe. There have been efforts by Georgia Republicans to make it harder for people not to register, but to say that you have to have exact name matches, or else your registration goes in some purgatory. They territory by its a case where it's like close enough that things like turn out well, and our, but even attempts to curb turn out could manner to enjoy and remember Georgia's a state where it's not very elastic by which were in you tend to have either it's all turn out. Yeah see having black voters and or liberals in Atlanta and or college students right who are in a typical year about forty six

forty seven printed so accurately, NEO, conservative white or fifty three percent of the electorate and, like you know so, for Democrats, it's a state where every vote counts. It's not a place. We expect to see Abrams win by sick, right, but maybe she can win by one or two and and right now he's behind by one and which is close enough to toss up at that's the way to think about it, but very, very close race? Is it notable that their race is that closed in Georgia? We don't really think of George as a purple state Dewey. While Georgia is a bit like the equipment of New Jersey for real begins where New Jersey, including this year to some extent with Menendez Right, is often a state that wines up teasing, Republicans poles pretty close to the end and then and then you look up What should I and this race that was shown is a six point raised, went to being at thirteen point raised it. You know what I mean so their been a lot of teases for Democrats in Georgia in a lot of races for a long time? You know. Typically, you get some indication where the Republican pulls ahead toward the end, at least, and I am now

for that to happen here. It's gonna been pulling as a one point raised in one direction or another all long in units. One piece of framing forget as like turnout, mid term elections is low to begin with. So if you can turn your voters at a disproportionate rate compared to how they vote normally mid terms. Then that can have a big effect, so Abrams, probably hoping for it, did Rachel turn out where you have big turn out from from blacks and liberals obviously consumers are motivated by camp but yeah but the other reasons there in the talks on camp are higher and Nevada. Ohio interesting right, because we project shared Brown doing pretty well. There remained not even really being endangered there. What are the ass going into this? Our higher is I'm. You know how you have two fairly General long I'm carronades might do mine, which Accord Ray you know. It's a little bit an exception, we're all the other industrial midwestern say so Pennsylvania Tom Wealth Incumbent looks like he's gonna cruiser election in Russian Whittemore. The democratic, like she's gonna crews, to a fairly comfortable victory too,

walls, Democrat Minnesota looks its worth as likely Democrat. I The democratic a little bit ahead to upset the republican incumbent, for example. Illinois right out was a conference on a higher, though, is pulling as as more of a pure Atossa mean Ohio is like a little bit red, tinged with a vote for Trump. I, like eight or nine points, or something, and in two thousand and sixteen it wouldn't be surprising if we're hoping to get a little better. There then stay in Wisconsin, which is more truly purple and we do have Wisconsin as Lean democratic and obviously they will be Scott Walker's. Fourth election since taking the governor CT runs for a things and winds. Things and winds. Recall actions is so Wisconsin is there to challenges in Wisconsin? One is that you actually have big spreads and the pole where I think one pull our democratic ever up like ten when power, as avers scares me oh you're, from Wisconsin, why not from Wisconsin, but I've never be done my time, Tony ever Beaver. Yes,

Ok, twenty avers, so the poles. The place. The other thing is that usually in when reelection that not breaking any news here, especially in purple state and saw the finance Forever model says: ok, if its close there, maybe Walker pulls out he's when a lot of close elections before despite that, has ever as a sixty sixty two percent favorite, but that will be closely watched race. I think so. What I find interesting in looking at this is there are a bunch of races where the rejection is not dramatically different. Buddy mean significantly different between the Senate. The governors raised- some eggs, are you now Arizona, Florida to be leaning more for the democratic undergo em in the total race than in the Senate race, for example, another example. Higher mean should do. We just expect that between the centre and the governors raise people's but their tickets pre often I don't let it swiftly. Maybe I should I mean I'd say even like Tammy Baldwin right she's, not even really endangered, whereas the guy We do not and pretty tight in Wisconsin. You have aid,

republican the dynamics, your aunt Amy, Bobbin and Scott Walker are pretty different and there also like a lot of swing. Voters in in Wisconsin regime. You know incumbents from opposite party Water is a real Bing ride for attention, Baldwin intends to keep her head down a little bit more. Florida I mean the the Gilan Poles and Nelson's poles have tracked each other pretty well, except it seems like there are just a few. Voters who are Gill M, Slash, Rick Scott voters and has been consistent enough. In the polls. You know, I'm not sure who those are, but one theory is that their hispanic voters that Rick Scott by virtue of how is handled hurricanes, for example, has kind of slowly but surely built up a little bit of a trust with some hispanic voters. Order, whereas Bill Nelson may be seen as out of touch, and so you do have a few people does have to be a lot right but but that's why give them seems to be three points, a habit Nelson is if that, in a one point ahead. We

however, some of the close races here, but if listeners want to go check out more of the individual race as they should Can we do that? You can go to five thirty eight hour com and play with a model for yourself, but speaking more broad terms again. How can we please this forecast in history? Would democratic governor is representing? Sixty percent of the United States be significant? Historically, I guess I mean after two thousand ten right, you had republican Guy as sweep so one of things it happens when you get into an election. Try isn't there all types of logical things that you think you would have research before going on. Your own pike asked, which you haven't raised. I don't know how to put that. Sixty forty spreading contacts have you obviously had really big kind of very strong average yogi governors in really amid twenty tens, a decade that were still in, though you know they never took over the governor ships of New York, and when

what's? Nigger lost California, for example. So I think they would have been pretty well ed but yeah, we should mean that we should have research. We will look back up. I will get back to you model. Talking about. My hunch is that governor ships, I mean there are conflicting trends here. Conflicting trends, are, on the one hand, there look at more localised, even as compared to house races, which are more localised in presidential races. So you can have things anymore. Using Craddock on either hand. Partisanship is a much less powerful force in governors which makes them swinging here. What sort of a state that ordinarily votes republican for president by thirty points in a governess race? You'd only expect race to favour them by about a third is much so a ten point advantage, for example, That means is that a strong candidate can overcome partisanship. Much more fan and also that, like National times, can become a partisan lean. Much more often in the governance race than in a house no centre base worst

the majority of House District Stone, forfeit the house districts, It doesn't matter how much a blue wave there is. Our isn't there just always the same way, the matter Do we know why that is. My guess would be that you focus on a governor of policy. More than you focus on their partisanship, whereas a house representative is kind of an abstract thing, a little more ideological. Is that all the reason or is there another reason, I'm institutional question right and one that thank you don't have to calibrate to the National Party as much right. Your life hey, I can be a Marilyn type of Republican, if I'm Larry Hogan, where I'm like openly critical of Trump tromp, I have to vote in Congress right now really rely on national, in committees to to raise money right can be openly liberal. On social issues and be like a bit more. Fiscally conservative right what you'd tend not to have can it's like?

get nominated in races that our national lies and also voters might say you know it actually agree with with Hogan but like. I don't trust him too, like actually vote that way in the Senate when they, peer pressure, from which Mcconnell some happen, elements as my governor by you know if he runs for Senate, it's a whole different story. Honestly, voters are right to say. I think this person's gonna along party lines in the Senate, no matter how much moderate clothing the draped themselves in that's imperiously what happens right, bright, Basically, you really do have some moderate looking governors who might have very democratic legislatures who actually do govern moderate, and so the voters are right to trust that promise. The House and Senate model are the same. Are there any key differences in the governors model that we you know about me or some other things, for example, for four Senate incumbents and housing but we use their voting record is awaited, help forecast the fundamentals of Europe if you break from party ranks for

more often than you tend to do better. Actually, if your jaw mansion or someone for example, that data isn't really available on a convenient form for governor, so I cant use that bit of data, but it's more like not how the model is constructed, which is like ninety ish percent, the same as like what things more or less important right so again, the big one being that, like state level partisanship, is a lot less important and governors races. People should not be surprised that in Massachusetts in Maryland, in particular that Republicans are or way ahead, fundamentals model says that that's what should happen because their popular incumbents who have really really outrages their opponents and the fact. The Republicans, is a minor disadvantage a major one like it would be in a race for Senate, for example, is uncertainty any different

the governors model or the factors of uncertainty. I mean people who go to the forecasts will see that at the very top we don't have and uncertainty band. That shows where eighty percent of the elections might fall. For example, I mean is that ass uncertainty neural anyway, there is that, like I dont think, people are really that, maybe I'm right. I mean it I should like presenting like a population found is fairly novel. I think we felt, like maybe people weren't, that interested in the conference animal around that fairly novel calculation anyway, Verona, maybe we're on give us, you know, give us feedback like it. There If you really want to see that uniting the governess forecasts, then I won't people, and I can I have one influence anymore right because, like people so busy, even I can cancel the boss car. And I should also say that you do see a confidence interval. If you scroll down to look at the individual races, you do yeah.

We're gonna, take some questions from listeners, but before we do that, should we check in on the house forecast I know that there is quite a bit going on there with new fundraising numbers that came in, and maybe we will touch on that in another podcast very soon, because that could be a whole conversation. In itself. But is there anything you want to say because it could be? Is there thing that you want to say before we move on to listener questions about the House forecast the House's ticked back up the Democrats. Kind of bounced around between about eighty and eighty five percent dependent and when you look, which is clear, to the high it was at an early mid September. That's partly because Democrats we just had Q. Three fund raising Numbers Rowan to our model. Those were very good for Democrats. They have out raised Republicans and about ninety percent of competitive races, which is kind of unprecedented, including lots.

Places where republicans are the incumbent or Republicans our favoured, and so one big concern. Our model has four Republicans is like. We currently show fifty five zero likely republican seats, which are places where Republicans between a seventy five percent chance of ninety five percent chance of winning, so those are places where you bet on their publican. Confidently bet on the road going even odds right even at two to one but they're, not gonna win all fifty of those. In all probability, even The poles are about right. Overall, there will be some Corky districts where a republican income and is under prepared for democratic challenger, where the demographics have change more than anticipate that's a big liability to have all those lean republican seats or lack thereof, conceit, where your opponent has outraged you and can have like a strong finishing so that's one reason why our model has become more optimistic for Democrats as the fundraising numbers, but also-

The generic ballot has improved a tick or so. For Democrats, its backed around eight and a half point led verses, I'm having begun to seven have. It seems like pre minor things, but that's what can send the forecasts from five percent to eighty percent, which is not a huge if the house never really shifted that much after cabinet anyway, right so didn't shift down that much and it just back up the kind of amount that it lost and people that are keeping track will notice that the light forecast has Democrats at around seventy six percent or three and fortunes because there could be several reasons, but in part, the fund raising numbers go into the fundamentals that are only factored into the class the and deluxe yes, a light is pure poles in also for more more uncertainty, so makes a spread of wider. Et Cetera and seventy five is percent, whereas class is eighty four percent, as I write this winter Nepal Data Billy. Eighty two percent or eighty five of time you read this but there's by the time you read them-

Didn't you will not only will never read thus, but I you listen, the actual there. Airbus is now about right out words from Pike S area and tax, but yeah, so that Fred they'd, almost totally converged, spread open back up a little bit because fundraising numbers if you dont trust, but the thing is like we're, not like banking, that much on this or model isn't. If you I use a per Paulie version. Ok, is your life He radically altered the chances. Are seventy six percent versus eighty three percent in out. I would not their stone the same zone Where Democrats are it's a long way from a toss up? It's also a long way from being certain, so I dont think it kind of changes. The fundamental characterisation of the races so much but like it does like yield some kind of uncertainty, that may be even is larger than what the model implies in the sense that so, let's say you ignore, fund, raising firm I would say that all the data lines up in a way that tells a very consistent story right

yet the generic ballot, showing Democrats up aid may be eaten. Half based on historical trends in mid term should expect them to win by seven or eight Given trumps upriver rating, the district paw, seem to line up in a way that would suggest maybe seven or eight or nine points right. So all the data, well behaved except the fund. Raising numbers are like this crazy outlier that, like no one ever seen it like this before right- and it wasn't like this- had been building for democratic engine small donor fund, raising time right into the sixteen is about fifty fifty Unf. All the house, races who raised the most money was like actually think I'd tiny bit against two thousand and fourteen which we could do if a year right, all of a sudden, they like aid to the one in fun, raising any you when they dont have romanian comments, usually come through better job of on raising its like one of the kind of big outliers I've seen in the data, However, my hands is says: okay. Well, you know it's one of several factors, so just kind of average in which may be using a bad strata,

here. I e shouldn't ignore it, you not. So when you haven't outlier anything say: oh, let me just ignore that data right. That's not actually good technique. All right! Well, as I said, we could spend a whole separate podcast on fundraising and I mention we don't have time to get her by will mention that, according to the Senate, Forecast Democrats have one in five chance. Of winning majority there and Republicans have a four and five chance of and lets take some listener questions, but before we do that we have a word from this episode sponsor we work whether you're a team of two or two hundred at we work space me. As from singled out solutions and innovative amenities, too flexible private offices designed to grow along with your head count. We work gives your business the space you need to connect, focus, build and succeed.

Work now, has two hundred eighty locations across more than seventy cities in twenty four countries around the world, making the perfect partner for your next satellite office regional headquarters or remote employees, Europe. Remember, spend over a third of their wives in your office space, where I didn't realize, spent much time here but why not make an exceptional everything from eighty and maintenance to security, cleaning, wellness, programming and cold brew on tap is handled by we work. We were provides intentional design infectious energy an outstanding service. Your team needs in order to show up and do what they do best visit. We worked dot com to find a location near you today. Speaking of that winter, office, it's starting to get a bit Nepi out there, so we should probably look into that and we sat alone Ray. I wasn't we did decide our real air who or who or who we'll have to get Stephanie onboard. Ok, we are back and it is time for listener questions, but I

The first thing on the dog. It is more of a listener comment eliza, or at least I don't hate you pronounce her name. She says, the word that you want is fortnightly. A fortnight has always meant fourteen days, so fortnightly is an occurrence that happens once every two weeks. She says I knew it's an old fashioned and forgotten word? But I challenge you to bring it back. Six commited lexicon rate. Goddamn word, I'm fortnightly. So this is unrest, to too last week as having a conversation about whether this podcast happens by weekly or semi weekly. The answer is: it happened fortnightly, but now it's happening every week because were closing in on election day, but thank you. Elisa Isaac asks. Right now. The model shows Democrats with an eighty five percent chance. I think he sent us yesterday, one that was the case to take the and all they need to do is when every race that means Democrat in two or three toss ups, but he says I remember that four weeks ago. When Democrats were hovering at eighty percent, the model show that

could win the house with only races that leads Democrat, meaning they don't need any toss ups to win, so he asked. Does this mean that the recent shift upward and Democrats chances has, come from weakening, likely and lean republican districts rather than improved democrat odds and raises that were already possible so on? So you right now have two hundred and sixteen issues that are either Lindy likely D or solid d, which has three short of what they need to having quite hit that fresh, then so along the recent gains have come from this likely we're We can category expanding where you either head pulling Data fundraising data when those two things to suggest

maybe if you more raises are in play than people assumed were in play so in some way, as it's like, I think, like part of the debate that we're getting into with other forecasters to the extent there is one has not really been that he did this year, I would say, or trying to stop that a flame via onsartin happening as much as we think the likely republican category is pretty important. Where you have fifty opportunities for some the girl right and if it goes right in ten or fifteen percent of those, then all of a sudden you gain five to seven more seats and your house math is a lot more robust. Sir Isaac, your analysis is correct, that the improvement for Democrats is happening in the lean and likely republican category on to the next question. Hilary asks- and this actually gets something that you brought up earlier- do the models account for voter suppression and, if so, how and she talks about reading the AP report on

what's happening in Georgia, surrounding checking voter registration for exact matches. I assume that it's not in the model bunny. No, we don't I mean in in theory. Pollsters should try to account for that. How would they account for that? You could ask like: are you ready her devote. Have you verify that you know? Have you verify that with the stated urgent that you're currently registered. You could do something like that, including the threshold, the thing about what depression. Efforts in the short run is that voters fresh efforts if their publicized can have the effect of boosting voter awareness and therefore you have people who are targeted by four percent effort to become more diligent about voting and checking their their status. So a lot of political science work in the short run says that clear how much effect if any it has The cumulative effect, though in the long run I think, obviously, can be pretty significant. You know where,

What becomes a new normal? I mean, you know things like male voting. One reason California and organ in Washington to become really blue is because you can vote by male. They are not the only reason but like that. Definitely This has turn out. When you have an option. You know at sea like having early voting, increases, turn out and so kind of the Kyoto might be pretty large right but like in I'm in Georgia, there MR so close. It like that might be like Lily a case where it might matter, but could not the direction right. It could be that, like ok, now blackmail those who do not traditionally vote in Ireland, MID term. For like these Republicans, should I turn out about last wearing, for a monologue, especially so how to be careful about like assuming that like which direction away it goes in the short run The short answer for your Hillary is that it is not in the model, and I think, we're planning on talking a little bit more about voting laws over with some other folks from five hundred and thirty eight in an episode coming

so definitely tune back in Jason asks what some of the races in which you think your mom, those are missing. Something noteworthy where you trust your model, the least. So is there a place where you see, I don't know about that model. I mean standing at know any race. We have divergent outcomes you now this West Virginia third District, where you Richard O. I guess that's how he says he says is Democrat in a dispute went for Trump. I, like fifty points based like very like military guy. Greedy westwards, also apparently Clare was saying that he's never voted for a Democrat for president, so he's like democratic. Then he is, you know, he's like three points down in the polls. Our says that you know we are really trust. The poles here, www about ten fifteen percent chance of winning in May

bet on on him? I dont know right, but I like em in general, like the sources of uncertainty, the model is first to account, for I mean, I think, the handling of cases with scandals can interesting and that a kind of uses like a one size fits all fits all metric for scandals, so the Chris Collins race in York- twenty seven you know our fundamentals. Model says that actually has a kind of close. I take them back as a democrat race, a lot more money, less than Collins did it's a case where it would say you know what it's a scam aubanus such republican district, if not quite enough to get Nate Nick Mary, who sent the kicker for the Buffalo bills, are something over that the being indicted by the FBI for insider trading dropping out and they realise- and you can actually really drop out right- I mean that's probably your impact than an ordinary The scandal right, so I can buy so everything

scandal takes off the same amount of points from your fundamental yet and that's a pretty big scandal, plus the fact that he's not kind of actively campaigning there but is unequal up in the polls now or people are really pulling. It is right, but, like our miles a bit more sceptical, then like it's a case where it's on a huge difference, actually the light version wherefore just poles, only has MC married a Democrat with a thirty five percent chance classic which cause for fundamental to the twenty eight percent chance, maybe a closer thirty five a big gap right, so we're going to move on to rapid fire pretty soon. But before we do, we have a question from Paul. He says how do pollsters define likely voters? Is it based on simply asking the pulled individual? Is there some gredients response like on a scale from one to ten, or is it based off of you know? Looking at an individual's history? voting record. How do you define likely voters? How do I define likely? Voters are divided

how are you gonna do with a poster, so there are a whole wide range since a banquet a book a bouquet or bank, where constellation get those confused a whole. A constellation of approaches, the simplest of which is justified. Ass people are going to vote as they say there. Certainly in a vote or almost really going about, you call them likely boaters right, that's one approach. A more complicated approach is to take. Ask them a bunch of question, about like do you know? We are pulling places. Last time right, you know who's relating to the campaign and each a score base unhappy boys questions, then you say: ok, we're gonna have an overall target for turn out. Let's say it's me: no eighty five percent of registered voters and then the fifty five percent of it who do best on that like on little many Queer forgave him about how much about voting are called likely. Voters, if I just described that it

kind of a stupid, cockamamie method to do it, and yet that was like this. The industry for many years and many false or still applies of, like that. A third approach, which I think is the best approach, although it, that often use, I think, upshot sienese doing something like this is to say. Ok, we're going to measure the voters probabilistic Lee Year Propensity Europe let us healthier to vote is a big factor, but not the only fair there will also way past what history I dont know if they re demographics, are not an that's better to me right like not. A hundred per cent of Luxembourg will vote, not honour Plenum unluckily, voters want vote, and so it should be probabilistic if you're not doing it stick way than theirs? Actually like no intellectually coherent defence of that? Just worse, it's easier, but it's worse, and yet most opposed benefit, this a little many diatribe about like my dislike of of now problems, voter models, but like there are a lot of front ways to do it all right now. It is time for

the rapid fire segment of listener, questions we're going to try to keep the answers as short as possible. First up Michael asks: does the model take primary turn out into account, we got a lot of these kind of. Does the model consider acts thing? What would have through I'm real fast alot of people asked. Does the model what states early mail in ballot return numbers. I know the answer to the real and because everybody acid in two thousand, sixteen that the answer is definitely not nope Alley asks. Does the classic model take the stock market into account? Nope Timothy? I was curious about how the Senate and House models account for third party candidates, particularly in close raises where the third party vote could potentially shift outcomes such as in North Carolina, nine nope nope We like so we with a where, but we call via all right basically means if the third party candidate is almost always being included in poles. We will treat them

viable and you know, another kind of general could hear a stick is like if the third party candidate is pulling in some poles, but not just one pole in double digits, that's a pretty good threshold for viability were they He a factor in the race. I am sceptical that when a carriage at four or five percent in a house race, I'm sceptical that lie that, will necessarily show up on election day. And were that that if it does the Poles pick a good indication of that? A third party vote is a wasted vote house, sometimes their party voters can be undecided who will either pick one of the major Party Canada I vote by election day, and so that right the threshold of ten percent, I mean there aren't really any house races where, where that's a factor, Aright lane asks, does the model take into account the possible effects of

choice, voting in means Olsson and how seats house how the races nope it doesnt nope enough. I mean it. You know it's We actually, I should add some work on. How do you do come for that? It's not gonna make a big enough differ. Lungs resources, it was a lot of monitoring is not going to make a big difference. Next question in the rapid fire Erin asks how much of a difference does it make in an election, or not. You have a well run campaign, no pass that nope. Look so carrots manner, allied right. One way to kind of look at this is like if you just looked at district partisanship and self, earth. How much variation would there be based on the Canada it would be a lot right, but how much of it has to do with like the political environment? It produces those candidates verses like

how reliable other indicators arbours how well they run their campaigns is, is a little bit hard to say. The irony is, like people pay so much more attention like the nuts and bolts the presidential campaign, the present community, whether you might say the campaigns, don't matter that much, It's so media driven and so people are so partisan right that, like then, present campaigns like campaign doesn't really matter that much begging, good candidate verse, good campaign is a hard distinction to two parts are a name I think we ve reached are, and this was a long model, talk eating. The servant had lunch, and I want to say that I Oh you know now that we have three forecast, there's so much to cover any We model, you talk, no big work. We will never mind what are you going to insert coffee to accelerate that lie right? Coffee talk, coffee, talk on more moral talk. I think it's just muzzle time, so. What are you gonna do with all of your time? Now that you don't have any more forecasts

fourth model coming out an election election night. Goodness they Wilson when cool, thing is so we now actually have collected data from a b c on over the past three or four elections, but the vote data that they receive look like in real time and when they may cause right and so you know a lot of problems with election night models, and some of them do great, some, not so great. It's kind of a high risk enterprises that, like it's quite assumption driven, and you only have like one chance to Chester substitutes day. So we now have data on like. Let's say you had a fork, that initially was lean Republican, but eighty percent. Though, is in an estate, leans democratic by five point right we now have an answer to like how much ado adjust the forecasts, and so let's go. So get ready guys, you should definitely be focused on our election night forecast is basically when they need. Thank you.

You know what I'm doing. Drake Tony chow is in the control. Room will be recording. Another model talk again soon, in fact, in just one week, so send your questions they're on Twitter or at podcast, five, thirty, eight dot com. I know we couldn't fit in any questions about the governors model today, because launched. But we look forward to seeing some of those questions also, rate us on apple pie. Cancer. Tell your friends about the show! That's it from and we will see you soon