If you just open this, like I told you to tie yourself down to whatever chair sitting in this email, is going to be a rough thing right. Can you make it to every email starts with that, welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. My name is Jody Avirgan, it's. Finally, here the first federal election of two- Teen this Tuesday tomorrow is a special election in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district, a district in well. Pennsylvania that Trump won by twenty points, but it is a close one. The polls show a tight race. Between a longtime republican state representative and a socially conservative Democrat, whose names are won't say now: listen if you got to stick around to hear their names national

publicans are spending all say. I know how to really keep national Republicans are spending big bucks to defend the district and Democrats are hoping to notch another upset. So let's talk about it all with our usual crew gathered around the table, editor in Chief Nate, silver, hello, Nate, hello, Jody Somehow we've been doing this so long, getting more and more often politics reporter clear, Malone, hello, clear he did it. He strapped in this is gonna, be allowed right and politics writer. Sorry upgrade an politics. Editor, Michael Cohen, hello, MIKE hello, politics, rewriter shots fired is that what's going to talk about last week's, very strong jobs report, the continue debate over steel and aluminum terrace, and just in general, the state of the Trump economy and what it will mean for him and this mid term here, but before we get to any of that. Of course, and we like to ask from time to time, good use of polling or bad use of polling and

I would say that I think we're a little conflicted about whether we need to keep doing this. We were debating it in slack, but if the president, United States continues to tweet about polls, then I feel, like we kind of have to address it in fact check him. So just the latest one this past Sunday, Donald Trump tweet did Rasmussen and others have approval ratings at around fifty percent, which is higher than Obama, and yet the political pundits love saying, my approval ratings are quote somewhat low they know they're lying when they say it turn off the show, fake news this was going on and somewhat low hello yeah. Thank you yeah! Well, he says around fifty per and but then give someone else a hard time for saying, somewhat low. But anyway, let's fact check that there are a lot of facts in there. I suspect all of them are little off. Might do you want to dive in here? Ok, so Rasmussen and others have my approval ratings at around fifty percent. That's probably true, use in I mean like around four.

But it's not true forty four percent five percent. Now that's around fifty percent in the same way John Mccain came around winning the two eat dinner election. He lost by seven points right. So Trump is like just a simple points off of like a brick, even writing, and so- and he said Mccain says: Trump is right about this characterization, the Rasmussen poll, and he says and others oh I'm worth pointing out here. Rasmussen tends to be an outlier. Is that right and tends to be higher than others yeah? They tend to show better numbers for trump than other pollsters. I'm just looking through our page, forty four, isn't Zogby interactive as good when having your quiver at a forty, eight percent that forty eight morning, setting konsult or consult, I'm not sure which around forty three and then the other elements of this tweet well. First off this is a chance to tell people what we look at, is the average right and that's where we

cool for on our site. So if Trump is telling us Rasmi and others have my approval rating. What is actually that that average so accord to our latest estimate, his approval rating is forty point, seven percent to compare that to a body out of sense Trump brought it up. You know at this point and Obama's presidency. He had a forty nine point, one per approval rating trump. Is it around forty? So he's nine points less than Obama was at this point and I'm looking at the If you have right here, he was he's, never been much closer than that he's always been or more points below where Obama is so far. Trump's approval rating has been his net. Approval rating has been worse than every president since Truman for his entire time in office with one except

maybe I think maybe hearing Ford or Carter, this guy yeah- you know you never know when Ford or Carter has a dip that can happen. Clinton Clint had some moments first, first first term for it, so it compare that that this plan, the President Clinton he he clips Clinton at one point, a hundred and fifty days then, and that but, like also let's say he had a bomb, his approval rating, which was what forty eight or forty nine percent. You could characterize that as being somewhat low, not very low. It's below fifty, though right and it was enough to get democrats- and the trouble at the twenty ten but, like the point, is like you're holding up Mister President a free. And Rasmussen reports poll that only has you at fifty in theory and actually has had forty five as being like the best you can do, I mean come on dude, let's get like has your like fifty seven or something, and then you can grab, I don't exist, but, like man, that's like pretty thin, gruel clarewood,

with all due respect, Mister Mister President Claire. Would you make the turn off the show part of this? What I always You have to show like fake news, not all of the tweets that between yeah I'm sorry, what show exactly show that is his twitter feed to show. That is the news. He ends his tweet by saying turn off the show fake news, which I guess watching television when he tweets, which I guess is something I just love that it's like it's a constant theme, but it's like subtext may tax t's, like yeah, don't watch people said. Well, I I also love this is getting a little off track, but that Trump does not television in real time right they recorded for him and show it to him a couple hours later, but then he live tweets that everyone's, like Trump is, live. Tweeting television right now he's live tweeting morning, Joe from four hours ago. It's just this weird time shift, I think,

Let me a check on a larger question on this. Are there a lot of things that trump tweets which allies or you know deep distortions? But what do we make about of of this sort of repeated use of polling? in this way do we feel like it's incumbent upon pollsters to push is there any I'm just trying to think like. Is there anything that rash? Is it in coming, say, Rasmussen to say no issues As I know you have done, you have interpreted this incorrectly. Mister president. No, I don't think that's a recipe since job. I think it's our job and other outlets jobs to correctly interpret the average of polls and say, like that's, not correct or contextualize for people. What the president's talking about, but pollsters, I think, put out their poles and they want to make sure that I think it would be a bad thing for a pollster to get dragged into a political fight and then be discredited for the next two to four years in the guise of partisans, but then do we have to keep correcting this every time. Yes, I'm not having fun. Bars on the internet for a long time. I don't

Let's see the thank you for your service. No, no one here by the way listeners last week, the seventh March was the ten year anniversary of five hundred and thirty eight dash twitter fight fighting with people. You know they give you for your first that comes with purple heart purple, heart purple, heart but my first internet was with Glenn Greenwald, which I feel like is like the holds up pretty well. People will not fight with on twitter. Why 'cause he fights if it's dirty I kind of halfway agree with them and it's like dangerous territory, but anyway, let's get back to your point about I use it all. I generally believe it like repeating like a false claim, a special it's like a kind of a trivial claim, sometimes they're a bottle just kind of one's a bag,

finding that most claim. You know, I think it's also frankly, Trump is kind of playing on distrust of the polls, as a result of, I think, miss coverage of holes in twenty. Sixteen people, not understanding that actually sometimes in a close race, as in Pennsylvania, fifteen The candidate who's narrowly behind is going to win and that's a pretty normal thing, and so I think, until kind of Republicans have an election. Do poorly as correctly predicted by the polls and then held have some traction with that. I suppose okay, but just to know one more round on this, even though I kind of think I agree, but if you are doing something that is continually being misrepresented by the audience and in this case, an audience of the President of the United States. You don't think you need to do a little,

you can about that. I mean we think about how to put our model. I shouldn't Rasmussen say the president is continually using our polkas Rasmussen. Has this clever strategy of always having republican leaning pole and then in some years, like two thousand and sixteen you look smart and then some years like two thousand and twelve, you look like no masses right. It's kind of a business strategy, but I don't think Rasmussen is that interested in being the most accurate poll like. I don't say that for like that many pollsters, I think, like they have had a persistent I can lean that gets them into trouble in many years and of course, you know other years does fine but they're, not that interested in like the actual science of this, but I would say, like I don't think, Crumb's claims get the much traction really, I mean you certainly see like a lot of citations. Actually, if anything, if anything, you see it both ways you see. Also in the press, I see lots references Trump's like thirty five percent approval rating based on one pull that will come out quinnipiack, you know, so I think people actually times are a little lower than the average two I mean you could make some trumpet make some arguments gets a look

number one. My numbers have improved a little bit. That's true and number two. If you look at polls of actual voters, register likely I'm a little bit better than in polls of all adults, and so he can make a couple of like halfway credible claims because back to a class that I think, which is, if posters jump into the fray on this, it hurts there are, maybe it shouldn't, but it will hurt their credibility yeah. I the job of media to correct it. I don't think it's worth us writing an article about it, but I also don't think it's something that we should let him just like have flying there yeah, but I don't correct, but the main point- maybe it's maybe it's instead of rebutting it. You just say here's Trump's approval. Here's. Some advice, coach, don't Other people claim the terms of debate right, sing a lot when you let someone else, wouldn't put it a little differently. Ok, very nice. Let's move on and let's talk about the special election in Pennsylvania, so TIM Murphy.

Used to hold. The seat. Resigned last fall after admitting to an extramarital affair, with a woman who he allegedly asked to have an abortion for the identified as a pro life politician, he was a republican the open seat has made for a test of the political waters in what has been characterized as Trump country. I think we want to talk a little bit about how this is and is not trump country. The Republican I told you I was going to tell you the names. The republican running is Rick Sakone, alternate pronunciation suck on it. I think we One of us is going to use that pronunciation for the rest of the site and the Democrat is Connor Lamb who Lamb lemon. We just left him like nothing right now. You can call now you can do now under lumber the names. Ok, ok, I'm bothered by it sukhona, not saccone,. But you know that one of my head in the americanization, I think it's a come. You know what I'm ahead and skills is to correctly pronounce last names upon seeing them, and I would definitely likely improperly Tord

well, mine is Maloney yeah. What do we need to know about this district MIKE. What kind of district is it you just need to play Bruce BR. Teen born in the USA. I think Trump is to be believed or they get that's about the Pennsylvania eighteen now. So it's the interesting districts s western PA, including Pittsburgh suburbs, but also like some coal mines. It's probably a mix of like suburban and rural, it's red, it's really red and the fact that we're even talking about it is a testament to how democratic leaning the environment is. But it's not homogenously read, I guess is what I would say. So it's a mix of like republican voters, who trump overperformed width and

the converters who jump under performed with right. So it's a mix of like suburban Republicans are probably traditional, fiscal conservatives and maybe new were republican. Voters does Obama Trump voters that we often talked about so people who work may be treated only in the 70s eighties, 90S Democrats exactly, but I've slowly switched over an interesting lee. Trump won by twenty points. Romney won by about the same, I imagine those were different kinds, Republicans who got that big man Mccain one by like twelve open election. You lost by seven points nationally, and so it's been pretty and actually like relative to the national trend? It's just been republican, except I mean, if you way back to like Bill Clinton, I think about for Clinton, but like it's neither especially trumpy, nor especially like NASA Bernie yeah, just like kind of a conglomeration of operation, one of those the the rations rom

the glom. It's like a glum of various types of republican NEWS, at least in presidential voting. So is it you can characterize it as any writer are less red than other districts in which you see in special elections this year, so by our index, which looks at the last two presidential elections putting more weight on the most recent one. It's a twenty point, republican district. So that's about the same as Montana, for example, but see- Is that South Carolina fifth election, it's less than Alabama less than the one in Kansas? Were Democrats came close, so you know and you can debate what, if you look at down ballot, races and so forth? Will TIM Murphy the incumbent didn't even have a democratic? Calendar in twenty sixteen and two thousand and fourteen in two thousand and twelve. He went by like twenty eight point source

thing to like well what about down ballot? What about see what I mean? Okay, you know at some point it becomes like special pleading where republicans are people for whom the spin is in convenient right. If you're someone who's written about the importance of Pennsylvania, Trump Coalition, someone so, for example, this is a really problematic datapoint winner in that fight, where this district, that, like Trump won by twenty points, now looks like a toss up. I mean that's really problematic, because this is her definition of Trump country of that right, whether it's an actor definition or right, but anyway, there are not a lot of good excuses for Republicans to be in an even fight in this district. One of them will change a lot of silicone My three year, Lamb, wins by three? You know anywhere in that general vicinity of like Sakone, win of five points or less or certainly a Lamb win. I mean all that's pretty bad if he got into the mid high single digits sakone, just by the way possible people don't process

How error prone these polls are in one off special elections like these you know, then you'd say that's not great. It's under performance, but it's kind of consistent with what we've seen elsewhere. But if he wins by one or loses by four, certainly or something that's a big swing and and the excuses for it, are pretty feeble on the GPS, let's linger a little bit on this narrative. That seems to be out there that this is Trump country and I think Trump kind of hasn't Is that a little bit over the Israeli over the weekend, but clarity, think that's? A fair Authorization and does the result of this election tell us something about Trump and his publishing more than maybe some of the other special elections would so I think the reason why it's being characterized as Trump country an also why maybe has a little bit of a chance here, is because in some ways Pittsburgh the Pittsburgh area, like places like Buffalo and Cleveland, are

of former industrial strongholds. There also places where unions have been historically strong and there's strong community ties to unions and in some ways I think that kind of that's what people mean when they about Trump country. Here, it's kind of voter who has the populous politics that are really popular in the industrial midwest I mean, we've talked about shared bound on this program. As being you know, someone who has these traditional views about tariffs about the way that the USA economy should favor american industry an those trump policies that he's now in the past week professed loving these tariffs that plays well in some place like Pennsylvania, eighteen because of a long history with american manufacturing, but it's all of the unions are turning out pretty strongly for Conor Lamb and pulling their medical weight and saying listen. This is your guy. What is Trump done for you? Vote for Conor, Lamb he's a you know, he's a nice. Catholic boy, you know is personally pro life but

about you know like there's a way to spend Connor Lamb and in a way that's friendly to a voter whose may be crossed over to the republican side, because they feel culturally out of touch with Democrats, even if they might agree with you know, Union Democrat politics. The district certainly includes Trump Kind yeah, I mean it like literally borders, West Virginia, Appalachian, if you Appalachian pennsylvania- and you also have some nice, it was a bit that's what a weird like kind of incoherent distressed, much got the excerpts, basically yeah, but does border which, like literally, if you someone should do this. If you like, did a map like a heat map of all stories that the Trump country storyline and like where the date line from the stories where we literally think that heat map would center. On or around Pennsylvania eight, you know some mix of Pennsylvania, you know Kentucky West Virginia and open two thousand and eighteen yeah, I think literally, you would end up like somewhere in that you just have to track

Jd Vance is Google MAPS and you'll just find that heat map. I think, but can we give it get back to the Lamb and how he's positioning himself might clear kind of hinted at the fact that he's a centrist that we used to talk with the centrist democrats. I don't that's a useful term it out, but is that really kind of what he is and is that as this traditional play, where like ok, it's a deeply red district? Let's throw out our most centrist Democrat and that's how we're going to get success pretty much I mean he's like he's a full stop, no He is not running the type of campaign you saw in Like Georgia, six by what's his face, all suffering as a as a blank slate, but like kind mainstream Democrat or even know Doug Jones,

Alabama, ran as pro choice. Yeah right. You know this is a more. I don't know if the old school so my term, but yeah, it's a it's an old school democratic playbook. Where you talk to the center on abortion yeah, you know he didn't come out all the way for Trump's tariffs, but kind, the idea he he sort of reminds me of and he's also importantly, at a new flavor stand to this blue dog thing is he's, come out and I don't really support Nancy Pelosi as speaker yeah, which I think is that it's becoming a big big way for people to push Democrats to push back or running in these more conservative districts. I often look to someone like TIM Ryan who challenge policy in the leadership election, who represents Youngstown, who actually is a pretty progressive himself, but he sort of frames himself as a blue dog and is super

putting a lot of these candidates. I'll also point out my one last little thing is that Conor Lamb also shares a certain biographical profile with a lot of democratic candidates, have been quote unquote successful in recent months and I say quote unquote successful because some of them have lost but asking about someone like Jason, candor connerly and they are all there all have military service in their background Thompson, unlike South Molton who's, a rising star and I've written about this before but they're a certain younger white man who is able to couch progressive politics? You know maybe we'll accept Lamb a little bit and from here, but couch, progressive politics for more moderate or republican districts? And that's, I think, an interesting thread to talk about an interesting biographical detail, or anything in that play with this district. Specifically, is that bass the play for I'm going to get the suburbs of Pittsburgh and I'm not going to get the northern appalachian part of this district

or is there? Is that an appealing kind of Democrat for even for quote unquote, I'm just kind of the convention listen about what you should do. It is a republican, strongly republican district. In the last several elections and less of a congressional elections. So you the center. It's not it's not! That complicated. I think, there's only The last couple of years have shown a lot of argument within kind of party that, whether that's the right move yeah, but I'd really like left. I think a lot of people would argue right. Yes, welcome to jump gum at the same time, which I really can't well, I I feel like people uh mistaking cig strong. Karma Collins. Actually I don't know her publisher, Penguin Penguin Press. If you build models that tries to account for ideology in different ways, which is a little tricky to do, especially for someone who hasn't run yet, but you know you'll show that it has an effective, maybe two or three points, either way of terms of vote margin which is meaningful, but

huge. It can definitely be outweighed by other factors, including environmental factors, and so it's a little bit like now. I'm really get myself in trouble like detecting the signal for like climate change or something it's like wide variability from race to race since, like usually swamped by other things, but you probably rather have a Conor Lamb than someone else. Well, also, it's weird 'cause. He was kind of like demographically fit like the work progress, they've done, but like was trying to like be milquetoast and, like I mean I do think alike. But it's also like people and I have this lazy habit of explaining residual relative to their expectations by all the candy, early candidate was bad. You know I mean I do think like Conor, Lamb is on the spectrum of being a stronger candidate and all stuff was not

about a mediocre candidate and that probably matters at the margin but like there are way too many excuses that republicans are making for having all the results were. Democrats way overperformed previous outcomes in the district and it's different in every race right. You know that race in South Carolina where Democrat came close and it's really republican that was like well, it's really low turn out, which is true, but here you have what's expected to be pretty high. And have a similarly big or maybe even driver performance in all of them. It's Roy Moore yeah. You can never make some excuse for Roy Moore, but sooner or later, if you have five or six different excuses for five or six different bad race Virginia like oh, it's a suburbs right, it's a suburb, n suburbs, you know, but the opposite of where we're seeing elsewhere. And so the fact is that the environment, as manifested in these options, is really bad for Republicans right tomorrow, tell us.

Really really really bad or merely really bad. You know, but these special agents have been a terrible indicator for Republicans. I guess fortunately like they would rather take the generic ballot or something which is also a pretty good indicator and shows only an eight point democratically, which sounds like a lot, but actually might not be enough for them. Take the house, but do you think Nate that so, okay on the special election results, we look at the result as a group right rather than anyone thing, but there are, it seems, like a lot of Democrats are looking at this race as a test case for whether a lamb type can and a lamp type campaign can succeed in these districts. Is that overwrought too, because it's just one of a Billy yeah, I mean what you can do it again. Looking at like eight am because, like a second order thing right, so the first order is just How do you do relative to some reasonable expectation, and we use presidential results for that right? you have now what this is the seventh or eighth or something

right counting to Rolla Federal Election right. That gets to be a point where it can be meaningful for a first order effect, but then trying to discern within oh, which types of races are more of this or less of that. That becomes trickier, though We have learned by also looking at the data set of state special elections, which is dozens and dozens is to say that some of the areas where Democrats are bouncing back the strongest are not necessarily suburbs right. There may be places where they deteriorate, alot in two thousand and sixteen you know the place I'm doing really well in like state special elections are like Oklahoma and Missouri and like whiskey, and in places like that that actually shifted quite strongly Tord Trump and it's easy to explain. It's like based on reversion to the mean you know here again, you have districts like a mix of Romney and Trump Republicans is about evenly mixed between them, and so you might know that much about the district, but I don't know I mean so. Let's keep going and talk about Rick come here and what we need to know about him and then we'll talk about the state of the race. Michael, you want to

What do we need to know about this? Guy now he's a Republican, but is he a Trumpy in repose I mean we talk of the two types of Republicans in that district is the Trump in Republican as he and more suburban Republican? Is he being embraced by Trump Trump out there right in saying yeah, I guess he's trying to brand himself as a trumpet in front before Trump he said yeah he with Trump before Trump is Trump. That's the exact quote: I'd put it this way, I don't think he has any distinguish distinguishing features that should color our interpretation of the race. So there's, no Roy Moore factor and so, like I said, there's no but he's also not particularly going to sway it because of one particular feature of he. He also off of p eighteen. So maybe the more interesting something that you want. Jumping on this guy, unlike Asaf,

he's actually held elected office before he's a longtime member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives which is just and it like and you can a like anality and policy positions, and he's a little bit too far to the right on social issues relative to what you want, but he is like a credentialed politik, and not someone who heard particularly much I think about until three weeks ago, when polls suddenly began but I guess that's my point. It's like if you're trying to explain the results of this election, either before or after hand, I don't think Sakone should be on your list of explanations, okay. Now one thing about him, though, that is getting a fair amount of attention, is the amount of money that he's ready. He is not raise that much money and the GOP it's kind of come in and throwing a lot of money his way. What do we? phenomenon and clarity. Think that's like a good move on the part of the GOP to inject a bunch of cash into this one race. Well, I mean I think, they're freaked out about,

but losing it, so they want to because it's the president doesn't handle those losses well and then it's been to a national story, and I think if Lamb wins, it's going to be a national story, no matter what. But you already see Republicans, even as they put money into the race sort of trying to do, the softening of the ground and say well, he might win. He wasn't that strong of a candidate that sort of thing, and so you can tell that there a little freaked out about the bad press at this race that losing this seat would bring basically- and I think it's to say that Trump, if succumb wins Trump will take credit. If he loses Trump will do the he's going to lose by ten, and I he only lost by three and that's because I jumped in and tried to help him but beyond beyond help this one of the harder ones to to spend. I mean if you win, that's the thing: if you win to explain to people that winning by one point, when you should quote unquote, fly nights, that's hard! That's just I mean half little rest doesn't understand.

Bob Woodward. What would happen so it's hard it's hard, you know, but like a lawsuit, I think is, it may not matter. In the end. Someone point out to me on twitch. The singer Democrats been really bad about the expectations game in these special. Are losing this one. Yeah. What do you mean they lose in the expectation. Wisdom has become that, like Lamb is going to win this thing yeah, I know comfortably, Let me again point out that the committee system, as a spouse by like reporters, is ahead of what it should be based on the pole, You know this. One Monmouth poll came out of her broadcasting, the head louse, just looking for that but they also had what God they had Lamb up. Six also use like thirteen different turn out models, and so you know, that's the new thing: posters it down. Yeah yeah! and make it read all thirteen while we were here having a conversation. But if you look at the which polls and kind of have priors of republican District plus, noisy messy polling, You know it's within the realm of Nate Silver predict Sakone when

What would your life? But here here's the thing, though Jonathan Bernstein friend, five hundred and thirty eight was like ok, you're right that Let's get right! The Democrats have been awful job Nathan, Michael you're, right. The spin wars and Claire, but does it really matter gotten sitting right because look at like chatty retirement San recruiting right, where maybe actual members of Congress are like. You know what I can tell that it's really bad news that Democrats from most of these districts they haven't won anything except, Alabama, I don't know it may be like, doesn't matter it doesn't matter as much would you? How would you guys react if sakone wins and tomorrow trump tweets, like hey, but I know Secon one by three, but this is a really read district and so relative to the partisan leaning of the deaths traffic. Yes, they got together a point that yeah yeah. So let's talk the polling. I mean I said that I mentioned that it's a dead heat, but there have been enough polling for us to get a picture here, or is this one of these sort of local elections where there is an attendant attention? I mean I don't know

is even bother calculate rolling average may give you serious mom, like the preview we published today, which does not have them at the pool. Let's, let's add the Monmouth Poll and read real time, but the preview today, th annual rate catch on our sitefivethirtyeight dot com. I'll spell it had all spelled out, had the average four thousand six hundred and forty six so toss probably goes to one one slash two point: lead I'm going to calculate an average here in real time. People don't double count: Monmouth 'cause, it's probably in the previous average. So just take that out yeah. You can't cheat two one slash two point: Lamb is what the new average, including the mom, with Paul. We just updated. My rabbit old mammoth pool with a new mounted pole gets here. Two one slash two for Lamb. Ok, two one slash two is in that annoying range, where it's like. Just on the fringe between saying. Oh, what street is a toss up and had you know, I would say lamps a little bit ahead based on the polls, but anything from like a six or seven point. Sakone window like a ten point lamb when would not be that surprising,

in the history of house special election polls being not very accurate. I hope we have a great preview on the site. You can go, read that now to get you all up to speed, and can I just actually point you guys mentioned, Thirty eight all spelled out, you know how it because we don't own five hundred and thirty eight counts together through it all spelled out well very clever listener of the podcast tweet it at me last week and said you should purchas the url five. Create all spelled out 'cause we and then on. The way that spelled out no like three eight, a l, L S, p e l, l e d, o, U t dot com which I now purchased an oh, you mad. I bought it at chili's command retirement money on that, so they selling that make the bullet to make the bidding is open. If you want five, three l spelled out com because we say it on this particular time. People are confused. They need to go to the site I own. It so just make me an offer, but wait. A second five hundred and thirty eight and five hundred and thirty eight all spelled out com is not spelled out. That's correct.

Five. Thirty eight all spelled out think about that clear how you wanted I by the fact that it also five thirty, eight all spelled out all spelled out, yeah okay, but you can go to five. Three eight all spelled out dot com right now you can see the site that I built, which redirects back to our gas page so up next Trump last week signed off on steel and aluminum tariffs to the constant, Many Republicans in Congress were going to talk about that and the Trump economy overall, but before we get to that, this week's podcast is brought to you by simplisafe Simplisafe. A home security company that you probably started hearing about on this podcast back when they were started, well. Today they have transformed into the fastest growing home security company in the nation protecting over. Two million people we did it. I think it's entirely because of this podcast and they just release their brand new home security system, the all new, simply safe. The system has been completely

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Then some items in the news very strong jobs report last week also last week, Donald Trump sort of, upon his pledge to enact new tariffs on steel and aluminum. There are still some questions about what kind of exceptions will be in there, but it is a fair, he rosy economic picture right, set it slowly, which indicates treading on thin ice there. But let me ask you this sort of big question first and then we'll get to the details, but should President Trump be getting, but for a relatively strong economy, and is he getting the right amount of credit? Do I look like former fired economics? Correspondent Ben Casselman this is more political question. The economics question little bit. I think the economy is good somewhere between good, like one slash three of the way to very good but good right. I think the press maybe doesn't spend enough time talking about economy and how it effects people's lives. I think do presidents

credit for economic performance. That's, I think, a debated question, especially just a year and change into his term, but like this is one of the two for the house. There are two big saving graces world licons have, one of which is the way districts are drawn means that could lose the House popular vote by six or seven or eight points and still be very competitive for having a majority of seats and two is the economy. Uh put it like this. If the economy was crappy, Republicans would be in a catastrophic position electorally. It certainly gives Trump something kredible to talk about to say: hey, we have added lots of jobs. We have increased wages market is doing. Well, though, it's dangerous to always brag about the stock market. So yeah I mean like look. This is a big plus for Trump and Republicans. I don't get into the question of like how much credit does presidential policy deserve for these, and that's not, I think,

our former colleague them Katzman is very good about reminding us that presents maybe don't have a ton of affect, but it's still political factor. I mean the conventional wisdom actually says that the rule should we need mid term. Voting is only moderately, so it's not like the here is whether it's a little over eight in the presidential years anyway, where it's strong but not like as deterministic as well whoever fit models. Think it is, but it is. Certainly a like the main thing on the site right now, right, it's a driving force and I think why people support him. I certain republican support him, but I think I think the reason why there's so much focus on the economy is because there hasn't been because it's a strong economy, because the one legislative accomplishment that Trump has under his belt is This tax cut bill. That was a big deal and that's something that Republicans want to run on in twenty eighteen, and so that's kind of the thing that they've got going for them right, there's not a lot of other stuff. That Trump is pushing like what happened to infrastructure week and it's so. But the danger, of course, is that

stock market is doing well right now kind of he's doing well right now, but a lot of people are saying. Listen. The US economy is due for a downturn sometime in the next couple of years, or you know what happens and that's and then select what happens that? That's People are a little bit wary of owning the stock market too much as president now and that's what it was really interesting to me about. The tower of stuff is like Trump and Republicans have a really good story that can tell on the economy they passed. His tax cut bill. It gets, I guess, we're going to get to this, but you know the bill gates way more popular after it passes to economies doing well. So, like oils being equal, if I were republican or if I worked in the White House, I would not with you if it ain't broke right exactly so. I was surprised that they did, but that lol, surprise Gary Condit, but the tariffs issues we discussed this a little bit last week is a sort of classic trump political or economic stance,

and so it's maybe not that surprising- that he reverted back so that I'm not surprised at it. We always knew he supported tariffs. It's just surprising to me. That means his appointment. Yeah exactly, and I mean he support a lot of stuff. That is. And done anything on yeah when it. When you encounter a member at any kind of head of the consumer electronic show in in Vegas, true or I am really to we're talking kind of moderate republican business people that, like yeah, we had mixed feelings about Trump, but the fact is that Trump is very motivated by the stock market and it's not going to do anything that upsets are kind of people. Basically- and this was in contradiction to that right- look- you could also argue that, like the Earth are kind of one slash two measure going to water down, Canada and Mexico, other people who are friendly, you might exempt, and so like it's more symbol,

which, by the way is a consistent pattern with Trump right is kind of the sub headline is often less dramatic than the than the headline you know, and these terrorists are probably not enough on their own to substantially disrupt economy, might have an effect at the margin in a trade war can escalate, but rip off and kind of feints or not. Bluffs interaction takes a half measure, and then people because the narrative about Trump is what is assume. This is the first. No default, and often he just kind of pulls back. You know we solve the weekend with it meeting with N Korea, where Okay, you know what the limit. Let's stay on task. I think that's really interesting this the sort of notion of the terraces a political stance, more than maybe an economic policy, but then the bowling was really interesting. I mean it came out and it was generally unpopular Well, if there is some disagreement in the polls way. Second morning, council found forty percent of registered registered voters supported the tariffs

that is higher than Marist Twitch asked a slightly different question, but mask found twenty seven percent of people thought the tariffs would help the economy. Forty two percent thought they would hurt the economy and Quinnipiac with which found, I think, the most anti Tyra for itself, which was american voters opposing that I fifty to thirty one percent, so that's kind of in order of pro tower to anti tariff morning console most pro then, then quit appear, and all of them are in the like five to ten to maybe even higher fifteen or almost twenty. You know against. I mean. Was I wrong in characterizing that Americans tend to be opposed to these terrorists? Republicans are pretty supportive of it. In the political morning, console poll sixty five percent of republican support versus just twenty four percent of Democrats to Republicans are on board

not overwhelmingly yeah, but it's interesting 'cause. It's also. I mean this is tariffs or not a traditional republican policy, but it's obviously a trumpian polisy. So in some ways it's an interesting tilt towards. We were asking this question a year and a half ago with the Republican Party become Trumpian. I mean I don't know. This poll is a certain like a little a little whiff of how people Republicans views are colored by the presidency is on a pretty non traditional republican policy out Dick look. There are two polls that show the are quite unpopular. There's one poll that shows their slightly popular in that pulls off often an outlier on questions such as these. So in the absence of more polling, I think so. This is not a terribly popular move by the president and the following that and sort of declares point. These numbers maybe tell us more about Trump than they do about tariffs, meaning if this had been the first thing that Trump and engage in a thought exercise with me. If this is,

the first thing that Trump had done day, one two thousand and sixteen do we think could have been more popular because they are they of Trump red meat and the fact that they are popular now. Does that tell us something about? Maybe people are just pushing back against anything that Trump supports, because he's he's an unpopular guy. The idea. I do think that that they'd be more popular, 'cause they'd have more time just it now, just because they would have been right after the back trump. It was riding high, bigger shocked, I'm not sure because the travel ban was the one kind of radical he did right away, not because you're, not in love loss, but you could have lost the Republicans who are now with them, because you know he's doing a lot of like traditional republican economic things time, but yeah done terrace right off the bat people been like what is this so the Republican Study Committee, which is a conservative group within Congress, took like a straw poll and I think, like eighty five percent of their members, were opposed to the terror of so it kind of cuts a little bit.

Awkwardly against the base may also has again, as I said Before- I'm not sure the magnitude of these really enough to like have a big effect on the economy he also kind of don't want to do things that hurt the and so I don't know people tend to like Everything is somehow this is decreased frankly, but like for awhile like everything is a brilliant dimensional chess move by Trump? I mean some things are just kind of dumb ass things that, like aren't necessarily fully thought through and are kind of half measures like I said, and I think you have been reporting for awhile that he was itching to do something on terrorists, and maybe it reflects like a kind of sincere polisy belief on his part, rightly or wrongly, but I think he

just kind of gets bored must say: ok, here's this button over here I haven't pushed. Let's see what happens yeah, I think that's right because, like the the republican tax law has really I mean it's not like wildly popular now the Realclearpolitics. I would push back against that too. I think that text law is getting a little bit too much. It's still kind of unpopular, and so the notion that, like this is bright like a of Republicans, I think, is like actually not not usually consistent with the evidence. But no, I don't think let let's lay out that evidence, because that's where I think we should. We should start to move to its attacks the tax bill, so the real, clear politics average has, on average forty two percent of people approving of the tax law. Now forty five percent disapproving that's a net of minus three percentage points that is significantly improved from when the bill passed. It's a bought about a twenty point bottomed out at twenty points under one. At one point, and now it's three I mean we were- we were covering the tax. Although cloud we sat here and said, this is very

popular right now and we don't expect that to get more popular and it's gotten more popular yes, isn't that a notable trend yeah I mean it's good for Republicans. As far as two thousand and eighteen go, because this is something that their account campaigning on an if you're, you know that generic ballot republican candidate you're excited that the tax bill is playing well. The people are saying all right like this is one that Trump is actually following through on and the, economy bears things out so yeah. It's good news for Republican but the timing of like so the generic ballot, for example, improve for the GOP and now has begun to decline again the timing of that lines up pretty. Oddly with the text bill where the improvement didn't take place until like a month after it had passed, and then began to revert again towards some type of long running or whatever right and so like so people have looking really carefully. It's not clear that there is much of an effect So, let's add where I think we touched on it a little bit, but my cat

this notion of the economy and electro performance being strongly correlated with seven million times on. The show we don't have to get you know will probably do a proper segment on that going forward, but do we have indication that this year. Will be a year that continue that trend or bucks that trend, or is that still to be seen? I would guess that all of us being equal, it would continue that trend. Do I think Trump will underperform what the economy yeah. I think he probably will because he's such an outlier in other respects, but I still think the economy will have will be a big influence. And so for Democrats. I don't know what the this is: a sort of improper way to phrase it, but is, is the strong economy, Claire a liability and may perhaps the biggest liability for Democrats going into the

Well, it certainly. I don't know I mean I think the Democrats are still as we talked about a lot. The Democrats are going to campaign under sort of anti trump line, but I think the fact that they're still struggling to come up with like what a Democrats like what is it specifically that Democrats were saying to people like is bad about the tax bill. I don't think american voters have a good idea of what that is. I mean Democrats whole arguments like it's bad for people, long run, blah blah blah, but they haven't given that to people in bite, sized nuggets, and so in some ways, I guess hindsight being two thousand and twenty. It makes sense that there's some sort of leveling and greater approval of the tax bill for from voters Democrats have smart. I think just moved on moved on Is that smart, though I'm not sure I mean back in the tax bill, yeah may, because Democrats could have dropped. Their attacks when Republicans more vigorous defenses of it. I mean part of the issue. Is that Democrats were making arguments about like earlier versions of the tax, and in the four or five versions they had. They did

actually make it so that more middle class people were getting at least a little something like the early versions. You know was like purely troll for the middle class, they made, you know, so it improved as a political measure, maybe the possum as you're too, over the course of the debate. But to the broader question about the economy I mean look. The economy is the first thing that Trump would want voters to. About whether tax bill is somewhat unpopular or some of the popular, very unpopular you'd still rather include that as part of the conversation and probably even include tariffs or other conversation, if it means you're talking about the bill and not Russia or N Korea or corruption or stormy Daniels or whatever else. Ok, let's end it, it's over. Thank you very much. Thank you Jody Glam alone. Just you and Michael

thank you my pleasure. Thank you. My name is Jody Avirgan Galen Jerkers I producer and Tony Chow is in the control room you can get in touch by emailing US podcasts at five hundred and thirty dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. You can visit us at five hundred and thirty, eight allspelledout dot com or you will find a link or five hundred and thirty eight ball spelled I'll spell it out like comfort, we will soon be purchasing if you're a fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the apple podcast are when you leave a rating and helps our rankings, which helps others discover the show thanks and for listening and will see you soon