Guys. You should write a book Taylor. Now my belief would be about may be exposing all the dark secret five thirty eight. I wish I had their secrets. We mourn there aren't really methought cigarette. My romano class about my time here can be great hello and welcome to the five define pretty politics. Podcast, I'm Galen droop and we ve got a treat for you today were released. Our five thirty eight approved, pulling averages of the early states later this week, but we're to give you a preview today. So assent.

It will be able to share the best picture we can of where the democratic primary is in the first four states and the nation, based on all of the pulling out. There were also going to return to an exercise we ve done several times during president trumps tenure shortly after tromp was inaugurated. Nitro apiece called fourteen versions of trumps presidency from Hashtag Magua to impeachment. We check back in with those fourteen different versions over the past three years to see which most reflects reality and we're going to do that again today and here's me to do all that as usual, our editor in Chief Nate Silver how's. It going it's going well senior, better Clem alone. How are you I'm good haven't Monday. Thank you, eat and managing editor Micro, common how're, you very nice, I'm just realising now Nate Meyer, color wearing the same shirt today, how you are I mean they're. Only someway men should not allow variety men's fashion. I know a lot of variety in means fashion You can be sure that any business

casual event. You will have almost fifty percent of the men show up in blue check shirts. Meanwhile, I'm wearing a large buffalo check overcoat variant. Wasn't really worried about you, sir. I mean what war my Buffalo check overcoat today, gambling, rail and preposterousness gallons gotta, myself, Dunham think enemy number looks like the male version of like a Charlie's angel, jumpsuit kind like as it, but that's definitely going for. Are let's begin with our yet to be released early state pulling averages as this morning. Here is where things stand, and this is going to be a lot of numbers so prepare yourselves I'll, try to make it easy on the ears now

Finally Biden leads with twenty six percent, followed by sanders at sixteen percent warrant. Fifteen and Buddha judge at TAT in Iowa Buddha Judge leads with twenty four percent. Then Sanders at eighteen percent, followed by Biden and then Warren in New Hampshire by an and sanders are tied at nineteen percent again followed by binding than Warren in Nevada Biden leads what twenty six percent followed by sanders at nineteen percent, then Warren than Buddha judge. Lastly, in South Carolina Biden leads with thirty eight percent sanders at fourteen percent and worn and Buddha Judge follow in the single digits. So a lot to process there but let's start here need other sites have had pulling averages out for a while. What do we do differently? That we think adds value in all of this in it, so that it is highly

what I'm going down to zero shade to like medium shade to hijack joy to try to do it with much modesty, I try to pull yourself out without pursuits. Others down. That's life advice from Clare Malone. If you had appalling average, wouldn't you wanted to be calibrate empirically. I would actually dont do it in this form but really marking turn so they're gonna things you think about when building and pulling average you and there actually, more relevant, probably in the primary and engine election because pull the very more from another in the primary can see big rather sharp chefs right. So just this Questions about like how much should I weight recent polls versus previous Paul's? How much should I shifted? There's an apparent big swing. That's related question right how much and I just for house, actually, no certain pollsters Emerson College, for example, to have good results for for war. And Sanders relative to Biden how much to adjust for that

You have just spent a lot of time with those questions and think we're it's yours that do a really good job of kind of sorry, for the little self Log are but, like detective, signal and avoiding noise and moving setback at so yeah wonderful, I wrote I remember his name, but so far the only reasonable. Well, you know the kind of clever thing we it was that we actually use because they are more NASH. Ozma early staples, so we can use this, actually do in our chair election models, which is you trend line from national poles make inferences about early staples, so So we know, as kind of is the case now that, like Elizabeth, worn, has declined by several points nationally, but there aren't very many recent South Carolina or Nevada Poles, or for that matter really not that many Iron Hampshire, Poles right, we can anticipate the decline, shall also probably experience in national poles. Has it tends to be clearly with the decline you'd see.

Staples. The state unification is made up of the fifty states amateur to Colombia I want to get a little bit more into the methodology, maybe, as we go through this by just to set the table here Clare, how does seeing these state averages change your thinking about the state of the democratic primary race Come here, don't you know a few weeks ago, when we didn't have this information, what I mean in some ways its showing a little bit of what we ve already been seeing, which is like Biden, neat leads now, but in these first couple of states, is he's weak. But then, when you go to them The first States South Carolina Nevada, which come next, although in reverse order, Nevada than South Carolina he's doing pretty well or you know where this or the races different rights Anders is doing better in Nevada. You know, so I guess like sitting here in earth December. It just makes me think,

I have truly no idea who's going to win the primary and I think they'll be a much better idea by the beginning of March, about whose you know who's doing while, like I think, nature of this race is so inducing right now, because there is such a difference between the earliest it's that are largely white and then later. States which have a more diverse population were obviously Biden is doing better. We ve been spending a lot of time talking for the past, twelve years about the differing poet call tastes, basically of college educated its first white without ecology our minorities in the Democratic Party and to me the difference, in the national polling verses. Those first two states is so interesting and it's just the it is the by four of the democratic ideological back and forth kind of encamped yeah. Looking at the charts that our beautiful this team made of these pulling averages

few things jury is the vis seem beautiful. The church beautiful bath are both beautiful. Ok, so wine the national chart isn't too surprising to me, but Buddha judges climb in New Hampshire and particularly Iowa, really jumps out where our pledge averages now show Buddha judge with a decent size lead in, and I were by no means an impregnable and yet out, but a decent size led going. The other way warned decline is really clear an eye when New Hampshire, much of that is inferred from national post question. Mark me yeah. So it saying we test this empirically if there is a shift in national poles- and you should assume all things that you will have more or less translates in a fairly than airway to staples sat in Layman's terms, if it can, it goes from sixteen to thirteen

national poles and she was at twenty in Iowa you'd expected to be at seventeen. Wait right. I ask one question about that, because part of our value add during the general election in twenty. Sixteen was realising that certain states move distinctly from the nation or from other states right. You can kind of group them together, based on the demographics within a particular state. Do we have to take that into consideration like Iowa may move differently, from the nation? Just because it's not actually representative of the nation as a whole? If there are a lot of recent state all that will essentially kind of override the national trend right. That's mostly for when you have only older out of date, state polling or you have a lot of new nationally and hasn't translated the state level. Yet the question about like how important the to comfort correlations Queen different states is like it's not quite as important or not only that important and all because you're not worried about a particular configuration of states rights not like

with and wins, Iowa M Minnesota a soda and was continent. She winced electoral college. The recent electrical Everything is kind of proportional right and so therefore, like You know we're going to work on for the full fledged model, which is something related to a different. This we're thinking. If it's even important to look at, but that's not as much of consideration, it's more like. Yes, if you have like lots of poles in the state That's him most important thing. If you have out of date polling then, and we ve tested this again, you know it's by har better to adjust, then to pretend that magically there's international we're not seeing the state level and in fact, like we ve, been testing us internally for a few weeks occasionally twitting a numbers. We have seen one been Poles of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The membership, like a very big, FISH for war and often bear out and she's at those numbers or even a bit lower when actual poles come out so doing a good job of like anticipating, where the trends are.

I guess the one thing I will say it just just sort of than the new thing sticking out to me. As I am looking at this data is. I've talked a lot to compete who are not the leaders right who are struggling, maybe- and everyone always says- well- you ve got a peek at the right time. Right or like you know, it's you know we might be behind now, but like we're bedding, unlike peeking in the follow up grazing, raising our numbers to me, what is striking is to see Buddha. Just numbers. You know if you look at the National Average Conniston. Really going up from like MID October and then in just the last couple weeks. There's like this sharp uptake, which is really striking to me now and I'm you know you ve, certainly seen Warren specifically go after Buddha, judge, right and Buddha Judge kind of you said like, while I guess that means she takes it takes me seriously right. You know like so to me that that that's the most interesting little friend to pick up here it,

obviously it could go a number of different ways. You have of the four front runners you have to various he can't it's like wondering about our average is when you see them. Is that the number for Biden and Sanders are incredibly steady and we think these little fluctuations back and forth between pretty in twenty five, whereby new myth or politics. We think that just noise, that a more sophisticated algorithm would avoid Conversely, you see big swings for Harris now, hid from the race come Iris as well as Warren Ambit a church and so somehow there like, they are kind of Troy with one another and impact one another, and these other to the two really the guy's seem to have their fairly city base of support and because may gyrations, and there s the rays. Like you know, Biden and Bernie look better, even though we haven't really improve their numbers much just because everyone else is so flush me around. They look like it looks pretty good all the sudden. Now, all the sudden, twenty six percent looks pretty good.

Idle and seventeen percent for Britain, it's pretty good bright. That recently doesn't really improved very much an utter case. That's the other thing that that really jumped out may well. Wine is what Clare was saying, but the Buddha Judge Bomb, which is like very not linear at all of a sudden cars. On perfectly with a worldwide are vs, and do we know from looking at the polls that they are kind of duking it out over the same stock of voters. People have switched their minds from supporting warrant now supporting Buddha Judge, yeah partially, yes, college educated white, I think, are in the process for both candidates. The other thing- and maybe this jumped out of me more than anyone else from to seeing these. These averages on charts is Sanderson's doom, pre freaking good. He is in second place, and I were right now, according to our average, essentially tied for the lead in New Hampshire second place in the vodka second Place

South Carolina and second boys nationally and second place nationally yeah. One thing it's interesting about that in that may be something that our listeners or readers will be a little bit surprised by in part, because I think that hasn't been deprived. Media narrative right, we ve been. I think we have been all really caught up in the Buddha you weren't sort of Battle Royal and your mama, who is on our staff and who has been writing, is really interesting. Media coverage stated the race column. He last week showed me a little to bet that was basically like Sanders, has kind of been under covered by the media? These of IE has pulling numbers, so there is. There is something, that phenomenon of maybe we're not paying as much attention to him. So here's the question is not covering sanders as much the relative to his pulling average justified in that there are some legitimate reasons to think. I forget his name,

The EU phrase it this way, which I liked, which was not so much at the ceiling, is lower, but that may be Sanders. Its ceiling is harder to frame to reach than other Kenneth ceilings. Does that justify not covering centres as factional candidate or no so massive few different things different people. We treaty these numbers out. People like home, They are the same action that you did that oh centres doing on a bed. I would have thought and he's in in our second place in all these states actually think kind of being in places and worth very much, I think, being a distant second place relative to buy, does not worth that. Much and being a second versus third doesn't that men very much if you look at who about in a state, basically winning matters and like second versus third versus forth. Doesn't really mean much. People will look at the number you give it. The ordinary rank after first doesn't matter about marker be a strong third place for American Iowa huntsmen indignant derive their place. New amputated, dropped out before South Carolina. I may look

their sanders or Warren is enough to buy met if they were to win. Iowa the Hampshire out of its an end or it's probably in Iowa, and then you probably also doing New Hampshire. If you one of those two and you and I were like they would probably- catcher overtake him other than to kind of philosophers. Philosophers up at like yeah is burning of actual candidate, whereas the church. Might not I mean to me. The big story is like kind of other models, like the steadiness of Biden. Really because, like I said, neither Biden or Bernie have really move very much, but like You know all the sudden we're gonna start voting in less than two, my but I'm burning needs to in Iowa it four, senders and Warren. Who did you twins, Iowa people like ought to problem if Biden loses Iowa it's actually bigger problem for Warner Sanders, because there, behind Biden

and by the way I walk to be real to the good state for them burning almost when the last time Warren has been ahead in the polls there at earlier point in the campaign right, so, if they don't win Iowa, then all the a narrow in all three of the firms would suffer in Budapest, regained right, but still there below Biden to begin with, and so you know anyway, we're getting to territories in the model and not the point average. It is true that if you have, the winning Iowa, then his which is our close enough. Where that might be enough to put him in the leader also release pretty close nationally- and you know, Bernie is drawing from a coalition that it's like a little bit more well balanced and last time itself a small unless someone forty people in the vote less time right but has numbers, are act. Recently steady across different states, and so therefore, U turn in a respectable performance in each of the first four probably stay or fifteen percent, which, when you get delegates, and so these numbers are impressive in there and there in their seats, That's really are we're going to continue.

Into these numbers, but first today's pie cast is brought to you by hymns for hymns dot com is a one stop shop for hurrah skin care and other wellness supplements for men. No snake oil pills are gas station. Counter supplements just prescription solutions backed by science. Hymns was created by a guy who knows that some men's health conversations are easier online than in person, no more awkward in person. Doctors visits are long. Pharmacy mines for hymns connects you. Two real doctors are mine which could save you hours. It's completely confidential and discreet answer a few quick questions, a doctor will review and if they determine its right for you can prescribe you medication to treat her lost that ship directly to your door. Try hymns today by starting out with a free online visit, good afore, hymns, dot com, slash five, three: eight, that's f, o r h, I M s: dot com, slash five: three: eight prescription products are subject to doktor approval and require an online consultation with a physician who will determine if a prescription is

opera at sea website for full details and safety information. This could cost hundreds if you went in person to the doctors office or pharmacy. Remember that for hymns, dotcom, slash, five, three eight or we're back, and we ve talked a lot about Biden, support from black voters in South Carolina, but he is also doing pretty well in Nevada, where he has a clear lead with twenty six percent of the votes. So what are the dynamics of voters preferences in Nevada that is kind of giving him that strength? thing is a big thing to remember: VAT Nevada. It's also a caucus state and unions are very important in the Nevada caucuses. There are huge, organizing force. There is a huge fight, in the last democratic primary over. Basically, the endorsement from culinary? I think it's a culinary association, whatever it is, like all the casinos have a large numbers of service workers

and the union's really turn those people out to caucus during the day. So I think the idea that Biden has nursed a rapid like this veto, the working. Scranton Joe reputation as friend of the union. Man is something that very much works to his credit. I also Think Nevada has Papa, especially in democratic primary electorate, a high number of Tina voters and they are Vito minority voters in a democratic party tend to favour Joe Biden. I think you get in two minutes It's less of the another seem dynamic as black voters feeling this kind of fealty to Biden because of the Obama connection, but think it gets into this pragmatism. Of a people. See Biden has more electable in the air of Donald Trump. And be latina, voters like black voters, often tend to be more moderate or conservative Democrats which Agnes Arenas somewhat or yours I mean I don't really see particular stir.

Four Biden in Nevada. I see his numbers being the same as they are nationally and his number actually are are decent there. Twenty six percent unease about their in a right Biden has out of coalitions that, like him happened and be present in great numbers, and I, when you New Hampshire, but to me the kind of actually is, I think it's would bring What are the most impressive, isn't about a cause he's out like twenty percent their verses. Like seventeen percent international average, so he's over performing by by four or five points and that's nice. Right. That might mean that if he is able to win new Hampshire that that he can follow it up when in Nevada, which is a more diverse day. When answer a lot of questions cling our own about how brought his coalition can be. I think that is partly like the union support, but like the key thing is like I like that restate was gonna, have a model works? You know every seat relative. The national trend, so Nevada being the most similar to the demographics, the of the electorate overall, is actually most similar of the first for states to the national poles. However, you see Sanderson.

Little bit better there, which is aware timed strength for him and that's been fairly consistent, load have the main of animals, but I think it's, the union and organizing thing there was also a this is not about it was. It was a pull of California think them by Le Tina decisions of lieutenant voters in California that found Sanders leading among those funds sturdy, one percent would vote for Sanders. Biden was in second at twenty two percent Warren Eleven percent Castra nine. Percent Harris recently departed. Eight percent are much her that surprising, but it certainly noteworthy that Sanders had you know a ten point led essential over binding among latina others in California. I mean talk a little bit about the harangue that I think five thirty eight sometimes has about Nevada pulling it's not good. There also hasn't been that much of it ass night, sir not an appalling the tremors, much good after

thirty million homes, I shouldn't- have I'm getting the the sense of results lies right? It's goes it can be, but let people change their minds and is a Caracas and, like I mean I think there is often difficulty polling latina voters in particular, which is relevant and allow the western states, and We have seen even poles attracted brake on a larger sample of Hispanics. Often if a rise of strength wise their trouble pulling latina matters further reasons why it is that in some states you still have some who are primarily spanish speaking and employing spanish dinner viewers is expensive also traditionally why people have their phones more from strangers. I don't know I just the kind of white things like people like answering from college random numbers and out of complicated reasons, but the large companies, and just but all minority groups

to be under represented in poles and therefore have to be up waited right, which means that if you don't find enough letting us you know, you should base in the population and you have to wait the ones you define heavily. Also, a are a young population and People in general are our honey and finally, one more thing like because Latinos tend to be different from community community based on because you are geographically country of origin. How many generations you ve been here and other factors that, like you, can solely with waiting saw for the fact that you get my team, but only a certain type of eighteen, o voter and you're on representing a different type, say someone who speak Spanish. She was newer entry or someone who's per week instead of mexican or something like these are fairly big challenges. Yet and distant

people's sense. There were only two poles of Nevada in November to in October, to in September. That's verses like Ireland, New Hampshire, which are just like battered with poles, so tonight's point about primary pulse in general. Are not all that accurate, but certainly as compared to general election pulse neat to boot, a judge has a six point led basically on Sanders in Iowa. How should people look at that like? Is that in our pulling effort? Is that say fleet, obviously not, but how unsafe us it's not a mean, first of all, its not even remotely safe given other almost two months ago. Yet even action day. It would not be particularly safe. I think the model would say: ok, I mean in a caucus- god forbid right, yes, in a coup. Chris, the margin of error on these numbers is twelve points or something right. The

average iraqi six or seven points is kind of a normal size pulling airway, maybe that annals of company since about like our different candidates related right. It put it it's under performs who over performs, whose correlated it gets more complicated. It's part of trying to say but like, but no he's leads. Narrowly states are safe, except maybe Biden in South Carolina, yet it can. I say one last thing about Nevada, which is there really striking thing? when you go to the early states in Ireland New Hampshire. It is just it's almost like a joke, how much politics and the primaries and everyone's their covering it and the voters feel very entitled unaware of their power and covering the Nevada carcasses sixteen was so interesting because in a lot of the actual caucus, how people caucuses he beer in these like Casino hotel conference rooms and like really long lines of colony workers, but then you literally oh anywhere else, and people are like others like a carcass. Today, you know it's, it's just

It's not there's not Theo, darkness within the state about like there's like actually a big thing that makes a difference here where in. Like Ireland New Hampshire, so they're thing and Nevada is kind of like while we're in Vegas and like there's a lot of other stuff we have, but I do understand A dynamic makes a difference, because that I think it speaks to the outsize effects that the colony workers have on these August. There can organise on it, and it goes to the point of like these primaries and particularly carcasses. People have to get used to the idea that look, a six or some point lead in a general election is relatively safe, Those candidates will lose occasionally, but in a primary because of the stuff Claire talking about we're like TAT, How can we really low carcasses are bonkers? You know, and people can change their minds quickly. Because they're all so dynamic process where, if you don't get fifteen percent- and you can go- join other candidates group,

but ya, Mean about Nevada and its also state, where, like in general, on people moving from the parts of the country, and so we have a state like that. Voter participation tends to be alone. And so we can her cat aid, investing in Nevada, ground game and or has gets union endorsements and or gets endorses, conduct Perry, red yeah, machine right like that Kanak away over perform, I mean The parliament via the subsidence, is because the media fight so weird then attends not to produce a big bounces relative. Other states, I mean you seen this already right. Nevada is the third state to vote. It comes before South Carolina. We ve talked far more about South Carolina, the Nevada. Well, we ve been trying to kid and yet for the model is like. How much of a balance each state produce, and after the first floor then it's kind of proportional to the delegates in the state. It's eleven irrational right for the first four. As far as we can talented model

Nevada and South Carolina are about one fifth as important as Iowa. And so crazy. If anything, work were kind setting up a little bit of Nevada but like there's not a lot of years and which has been kind of in this first for order, but, like typically, doesn't that much momentum per se. They wanted an annex just just a couple, more things and an event at the one thing, I'm sort of cure, to see is whether or not or and gets any surge. She has a big I shall team. I think she has lost a decently easy connection to labour if you're gonna make that, although probably a little bit tougher than sort of Biden, nerve centres, but service unions tend to have a lot of work. In them I think Americans conceptions of unions is typically like the Teamsters, which was obviously super male right. That is not the this was service workers. There has been no it's been less covered, but there is actually quite a lot of sexual assaults, of circuit service workers are poor working conditions for working mothers,

me too, movement did kind of have a little bit if it did have and of a splash. As far as like working class women went, it was too it was talking about sort of like the danger. Serve working in hotels, for instance, or in bars, or casinos, where people, it's you wait, might see women in service roles, as kind of like, therefore, the taking that was a real moment in the past couple of years. So I'm curious if a woman Warren speaking too do you know, service workers who have been were that the numbers are decent, amber women. I wonder if that could have any effect and I think that's a sort of a pet chill strategic advantage or potential dynamic that could service that could surface in the race yeah I'm looking up. The Reno Gazette is tracking endorsement in Nevada and according to their tracking of more local endorsements.

We would, in our endorsement tracker warrant, is getting more endorsements than, for example, Sanders I mean Biden, definitely leads there by significant number, but local members of the dome, A party local representatives are endorsing worn and also I've, seen interviews with Harry Reed, we're he's talked about Warren somewhat As you are his protegee somebody like a lot of faith in bringing her into the Obama administration during his time in office. Yet I believe you may be aware of this article in the lead, took it over a did. It didn't interview with Harry Red, who has obviously been ill, but in the author asks, do think Bernie Sanders. I believe he s like Bernie Sanders, make a good precedent and red kind of DEM. Yours, a bet, you know says nice things, but to mirrors, and then the author asks the same thing about war and any says: oh, yes, very smart, universal organised Basically, yes, an outright yes, you would be a good precedent.

That is an interesting kind of like smoke signal from you know. You know how looming figure and about you talk about the document. Bernie is nodded Democrat. Technically What's that mean who really cares or not right? So no, my care about that is the we're Senate Majority and minority leader Harry Red, who probably thought that Bernie was sometimes a great. The voice, and sometimes too big payment is ass, right and so there might not be a lot of love loss if that becomes important. We're gonna move on our next argument, but just to wrap up here, neat work shining, a spotlight on the averages in the first four states right now for listeners who want to get and some kind of the state of the race. Would you encourage them to pay more attention to the national poles at this point or state level? Averages thanks. When you know you believe me, there are read all my work: what's up You gonna go at you like. How should you got around five? Thirty, eight where'd. You go Smart read over pulling averages, weighty start ever

page, youth economic, different tat. Pretty you started the national bawling average. Ok, you went a little trick. Yes, Pike S, exclusive, ok, the average of national poles and I were poles and that's not too bad. Ok, just the average of those two hurry up at I've ever related question. Should we pay any attention to the later state after the early stage or they gonna change so much that not with paint just go. I mean the Poles change when there are surprises, and we can kind of get into questions about kind of what is meant by surprise. I mean we can have opened their upset about like balances that are produced. I mean to get the thing: that's pretty robust is the relative placement of Canada in state relative international numbers So California, for example, actually is another stay that looks little weak for Biden. That's pretty significant, potentially amazing

Biden falls to seventeen percent nationally, then he might actually hit fifteen percent emanated restless and California, which would mean that therefore he misses out a much of delegates. So so it's the relative order of a state's relative to the national members that I think is important, are let's move on and discuss which of needs. Fourteen paths trumps presidency has taken, but first today's podcast is brought to you by door dash long day at work today, at school, still stuck at the office treat yourself to the meal you deserve and have your favorite restaurants come to you with door dash dash connected to your favorite restaurants in your city

ordering is easy, opened the door dash up choose what you want to eat and your food will be delivered to you wherever you are. Not only is your favorite pizza joint already under it out, but there are over three hundred forty thousand restaurants in three thousand three hundred cities, so you might find a new favorite too, with darted or delivery in all fifty states and Canada order from your local go two's or choose from your favorite national restaurants. Dont worry about dinner. Let dinner come to you with doored ash right now. Our lessons can get five dollars of their first order of fifteen dollars or more. When you download the door dash app and

promo code politics. That's five dollars off your first order when you download the door dash up from the app store and under promo code of politics. Don't forget: that's promo code politics for five dollars off your first order from door dash. Today's podcast is also brought to you by eighty t: commercial for business. It's not politics as usual these days and it's not business as usual. At eighty eighty commercial service businesses, ranging from mid sized organizations to large scale enterprises, think of them as a national security advisers. Just for your company. They provide comprehensive security, fire life safety and risk management, solutions, professional great systems for commercial, great businesses.

The fortune, one thousand trust, eighty to commercial for highly complex scalable, integrated solutions and if you're looking for a great partner to up greater take over the monitoring and service of your current system, eighty commercial can help to install and maintain large scale and multi site business dependency. Businesses choose eighty t commercial, further, complex security solutions, visit, HTTP, dot com, slash five, three, eight to learn more again: that's a deity dotcom, slash five three eight a week or so into trumps presidency. Nate Road, apiece, called fourteen versions of terms presidency from Hashtag Maya to impeachment. We look back on a periodically over the past three years to help gauge how drums presidency is going. We haven't done that since Democrats impeachment push began so today is the day and they again just start off here. What were you trying to capture by this

riding these fourteen different paths in early February of twenty. Seventeen, where I was trying to capture in some sense, was uncertainty and to think about how many different paths were plus, or within history are different sets of assumptions. We knew about tromp. It was kind of a little bit trying to push back and people who thought they knew it all about exactly how the presidency would and or given its on present in many ways I just a matter of you can't like build a model of a presidency, you can't Ok! Well, it's kind of like these numbers in and hears you now. Here's the ninety fifth probability distribution. You can't do that to complicated it's now. The world works right, but It struck me help. Let us think about, let's think about the contingencies and a reasonable range of outcomes, and may be some of the more likely or less likely bucket aren't. You were going to go through these fourteen pans and see what's off the table at this point, what turned out to be wrong?

have we indicative of what would happen, and there are five different subgroups. We're gonna go group by group and it begins with group one extrapolations from the status quo and the three pounds there are trump keeps on trumpet and the country remains. Even divided to trump gradually or not so gradually enters a death spiral and three trump keeps a rewriting the political, rules and gradually becomes more popular of that group. What has borne out in reality? I think it's like seventy percent. One trump keeps on trumpet and the country remains evenly divided and thirty percent to Trump gradually enters a death spiral I think one thing it's one fully fully one, but Trump Trump is not popular I'll bet, it's more, it's more when I wrote this, was he Emily S is precarious? Relate forty three percent? Knows it forty one half per cent, approval running wise, you certainly

make any type of claim that there has been a decline. The overwhelmingly obvious conclusion is that Readiness in his approval ratings, his may, when you wrote this February third made silver and on February third, twenty seventeen trumps approval rating was forty. Four percent approve forty seven percent this, which is like literally the high started ever wise because present simply have a honeymoon period in their first month, thirst, tromp was in that period right. So, like the minute you gonna get out of that honeymoon, and you have stuff actually happening than down to Bowery is now facing is become more unpopular, I'm saying that like look frigate chert, are we taking this episode, look invasion, sharing people you to watch or like clicking scribes. You can see Nate pointing at a screen. You could, like balance, what's a really avail Vaz. An ace of has ok

I mean like I'm, trying to I'm exaggerating the steadiness of these laws but you can well. Oh valentines, eloquence, crystalline object or something artist. Get more interesting as we move on so group to the south. Heading is trump changes direction and that includes path for Trump Melos out slightly five trumped seeds authority, basically to other people and his administration six trumped successfully pivots to the populist center, but with plenty of authoritarianism. Two and then seven trump flails around aimlessly. After an unsuccessful attempt to private seven Not only is none about it. The mutton seven matches the most its seven described him firing lots of people alienating how I guess he hasn't alienated allies, that much

I can assume that he has like pissed off much Ricardo and people any any hasn't done? That seems important factor, and I mean I'm showing violate, which he has its not another reason I say: seven is by early twenty nineteen, their impeachment proceedings against Trump. You have. It isn't and several republicans are considered sitting challenging us router, that's true, although it's not ok, I mean why? What do you mean? Well, the nature William, wild eyed I agree. He certainly has not know out. He surely not devolved authority too If anything, he's tredick to his power, you shouldn't apple of eight of successful or unsuccessful dive into the center. And if there s eyes at islands, there have been hot seconds. Remember neighbours I hashtag pivot bandwagon. Forever when he was going to be friends with Chuck and Nancy that there was a mom,

that's right, yeah, but still, I think none of these really have held true for more than twenty four hours at a time. What is it fair to say that he pivoted away from the most conventional establishment republican figures that filled out his patient earlier on, we also pivot. Yes, but he also pivoted away from like ban and, although Stephen Miller's still there now, it's probably more is banned and Stephen Miller than it is Brent Pre, but right exact. I think I think he can you pivot back in on yourself, canoe double their yes self. I mean that's the point of the the pivot for right magazine. You can turn in all directions without travel, we're pivoting to ourselves to be more like herself. It was more like a step, all change than what is that? What is that? A dance move zone Basque? Well,

never clearly agreed as we're not in musical Peterborough. Second clearly were, let's move on to group three, which only has to think that clear and clarify, or on the Basque, on the path of keep your pathetic people free the three horsemen of the presidential Apocalypse war, recession and scandal so path, eight, trump is consumed by scandal line is undermined by a failure to deliver jobs and ten crumbs line. Order agenda is bolstered by an international incident or terrorist attack, eight trumpets, consumed by scandal and relatively little of nine and ten. I agree with that, look consumed is is kind of a loaded word there, but no power She really is is getting Don yeah nations cap at all. It's all impeachment at all

scan like what is termed a leg. Yet what is trumps legacy like water, his policy the long and short of a wall in the judicial and trade right there is the possibility for yours, I'm here to pass right, there's a possibility for a new China. U S: ideal, but its telling that were about ten to twenty twenty. In your talk him at the possibility right, not a lot has gotten done, but on the jobs one either nine trump is undermined by failure to deliver jobs. What was striking to me about? Actually this whole exercise going back and looking at this. You know these are bucket id into relatively clean narratives, which makes sense- I don't know house he would do. But what striking is how the current reality really borrows from very distinct narratives?

so, on the one hand you have a pretty healthy booming economy. We just had this great jobs report. On the other hand, you have an immense stricken consumed by scandal, which do you think matters more in defining the term presidency up until now, wonder what scandal or economy I would take an average of both hussy scandal rise up. I think it's the morgue grasp Oh culturally, sustained image of the Trump presidency end while commie is doing well, there's an tyre presidential primary. That has in part preoccupied with the idea the economy is deeply screwed up for the middle class, and so I do think that the Democrats have done a decent job, which I think was shown in the mid terms of convincing voters that the policies of the republican administration is kind of like Anti

class. I also think trumps approve. All rating bears a clause. A resemblance to what you would expect of a presidency defined by scandal than what you would expect of a presidency defined by booming Call me look. It is always worth keeping in mind that Trump one electoral college to know when the popular vote and that the GNP controls the Senate Empire because by army has many centres as California, and so you know you can't describe kind of the Trump moving In the same way, you would kind of actually popular populist movements in another country. He is not very popular. He has a chance to win reelection, because a reasons related to Our system were to two party system: either party might not make another unpopular candidate and we think we liked or colleges trumpet edge where he wins a lot of the close races, even though not so close ones mean two thousand. Sixteen was not was not that close right in the popular

so you know these things are very important to keep in mind and it's why we can say phenomena Europe has unpopular president, and that is very defining kind of his legacy and what he means for american history right. However, when is having underdog it like at all for re election. So please keep that in mind. So motoring along were onto group for and the two tracks intergroup for our eleven Trump plunges America into outright authoritarianism. Twelve resistance to Trump from elsewhere in the government undermine his authority, but prompts a constitutional crisis need a little pressure there. Yet all whether these are interesting, I don't think eleventh pressure, I'm time at twelve, twelve,

Twelve hours of China would have my sauce wasting. I think a lot there's, there's wisps of eleven here too, like let lets you the one. That's actually to excuse me. Trump is being impeached right now for trying to solicit a foreign country to interfere in our election. That's how PAM outright authoritarian yet were, of course, where we have. Reach, and I thought, but like a lot of what Trump has gone in trouble for, is be his anti democratic yeah. We're sure, but I think to me, were jumps out on the front page more me is the idea that essentially like the revolting bureaucrats via the State Department, poise choosing to break with the White House. And that no one from the executive, the richer whistle blower, the whistle blower, no one should testify and all these people have have gone before the entire.

In committee and said the skies like cheer point acting it in an anti democratic way, but it's more like the whistle Yet the whistle blower needed to happen in order for that to be more fully reza you to get to see a lot. Yeah, I mean commie. Refusing to you know if we follow the President on the Russia Investigation, I mean I don't know. No luck, I think we could do hope I cast on in which weighs Trump is authoritarian and not at a very complicated one. One thing that I think is relatively unkind to rear Silva he's closer to being our attention in typical american president of the recent past. I also tend to think that if rolls have put together a list of things that three years and strong. As I say they would define as clear signs of authority behaviour not disturbing. They don't like about Trump right, some of which does

Paul is category but things that I would describe as authoritarian and they put that listen time capsule. I think some of those boxes would be checked. I think many of them would not be checked. I don't know why we didn't seven in in in your piece, nay, you link to a farm policy peace that has a checklist. That's basically like ten ways to tell your president as a dictator written in November, twenty sixteen after Trump on, and it's gonna what you're saying it. There's not a ton of slammed donk, o Trump is defined. By doing this, you know systematic efforts to intimidate the media check check right. Now it has Trump jail journalists? No, but he certainly try to intimidate them anyway. If you go through that list, it's it's kind of a mixture, maybe maybe there's a few We, I mean one of the reasons why we chose to to do this segment, though, is like because we haven't checked in on Trump all that much outside the context of the Democratic Party right and talking mainly coop

beat trump, but it is interesting now that we're talking about it to think up through what what December twenty sixteen brains have thought about what's happening now right. Would we be shocked by it? Would we feel that that was to be expected? I think three it's it- has been. Both a steady state of files, of norms, but also some stuff hat is is surprising. The saudi stuff was surprising, yummy then you're takeovers are. These particulars are surprising away. Yet I guessed TAT the specificity of you know manifestation of like

perhaps authoritarian strains in Trump is interesting. I wrote the specific use there of the word. Authoritarianism gets out whether or not the american structure of checks and balances is working or if the president has the ability to basically an act, policies or wishes, and our system of checks and balances doesn't actually work, and I think you know we had a podcast earlier in the year with Kate Shaw just talking about impeachment generally, but we talk about what constitutes a constitutional crisis. President Trump has followed the court's every time they ve made a ruling even with Nixon. There were questions about whether he would follow court orders. President Trump clearly has so far when it comes to what he has an hasn't, been able to do in terms of the Muslim Ban, etc. He's had to change its policies in accordance with the court and what the Congress is willing to. Let him do I mean right, so outright authoritarian doesn't seem to describe the Trump President Salami. Let me add to pieces,

context. One is that in its original formulation, it was sort talking about shocking the scenario where its unambiguous authoritarianism after some period of time, rightly have let muslim ban and then things escalate from there. And instead it's been softer moves against. International norms. Everything by the way is like some undermining of long standing norms has two with republican Party as much or more than Trump yeah himself right. Like now, confirming Merrick Garland, you can argue that ok, well, maybe there's a present for that. Maybe it's any new president whenever owls right, but now in some ways is, does more to undermine at least the tradition, the rules of the game, then most things everything that Trump has done and these stay. Where publicans will lose the governorship and have the legislature passed much of laws regulations to quit. But new governors power. That's all

a thorough tearing, not terrific democracy, and you know restricting Right right I mean these things have sometimes not much to do with Trump and even things that we consider to be the norm. Breaking like maybe there most evident on the international scene are things that our system is designed to allow the president, to do yeah increasing presidential powers. Increased under all recent president, certainly including Obama bummer go back to the imperial present. The way I praise it originally, which, as I, what this lays out, as Nay said, is, is sort of like a deliberate and discreet and shocking unmistakable plunge into author or terrorism. But we haven't gone it's more like Trump just has he's tendencies in those have slowly express themselves, but I think saying, oh, we having gone outright into the state. If that was your only lens for looking at this part of this,

you would miss a lot of what has defined trumped presidency, which is east. These come strong, strongman tendencies are so wrapping up. Here we have group, five trump makes Amerika great great again. Thirteen trump becomes Governor Schwarzenegger and fourteen trumps, a button matching works, because the system really is broken and that's the end of the west. So let's discuss those final too I mean, he's really has become Governor Schwarzenegger closed. You silly owning the centres and where one hundred and fourteen the but matching, I wouldn't say that but MASH and has worked per se. But I would say that because the system is broke in a lot of, but matching doesn't really do anything, and so will lots of life just goes on as normal or a summing up what we ve got over all of these fourteen different paths. What jumps out as the most prescient in terms of what the term,

president see what end up being okay, so we have a big healthy dollop of number. One trump keeps on Trump in the country remains evenly divided. None of the Trump changes direction. Nothing from there. We have a big, healthy dollop of trump is consumed by scandal we have a medium sized I'll, get a lot of pushed back for that medium sized dollop for a trump plunges America into thought, authoritarianism. A word I can't pronounce and a huge scoop of resistance to Trumpery elsewhere in the government undermine Tis Authority and then finally, there is also a big helping of fourteen trumps. But machine works because the system really is broken not literally, but just in the sense that the economy is doing really well, sounds to me: how does only soup taste.

Voters will decide in twenty twenty eight level. The listeners sent us a sentence. A picture of your trumps and let us know what course you think the trunk presidency has taken amongst those fourteen paths but leave it there. Thinking eight thank again and thank you climb things down and thank you if the Trump presidency were a food. What food with a big thanksgiving! Sorry, it's a chilling units alone out here be frog, sometimes stroganoff, reciprocal Chile before we go. I want to take a moment to thank- are in turn Jake our low. This is her last week with us and she's been wonderful to work where the during her time at five, thirty eight in particular, and working with me on an audio documentary project that will come out early next year. So when you hear it remember, Jake Jake, thank you the tremendous job and we all look forward to seeing what you do next year,

we really do will miss you Jake we well. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the control room. One last time are in turn is Jake our low you'd get in touch my e mailing us at pod concept, five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also course treated us we're crust your comments, if you're a friend of the show, leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, cast store or tell someone about us. Thanks are listening and will Yes,