I welcome this because it was at a main, Marilyn Massachusetts. Michigan Minnesota means it is our amity and thereby hampering during an election regarding your honor quarter or high or go home organ the veto on South Carolina. That's gotta, tenancy taxes, you too, from Virginia Washington, West Virginia Wisconsin. Wyoming. Hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen Druke. We are exactly one week away from the Iowa caucuses and the democratic primary race is in flux. Senator Bernie Sanders has gained support in national and early state polls, and his odds of winning the nomination according to our model, have noticeably increased. At the same time, Senator Elizabeth Warrens odds have taken a tumble, so today we're gonna, discuss where the race stands in the final run up

I want also to check in on the political, calculus freezing republican senators after new reporting on a draft of former national Security adviser John Boltons Book Bolton reportedly claims that President Trump. Blizzard. We tied freezing military aid to Ukraine to investigations of Democrats, including the buttons inherently, the Scots all that our editor in Chief need sober has a gun on you know is bother. Basically, you said the intro. Every where exactly one week away from me, I will cause there proxy. At night we recording instantly mornings, it's more like a weak point, five away, seventy five days away. That is the most ninety eight thing if I ever saw, I think it's important to keep in mind the Caucasus are at an actual thing that people get together. You can't pick and choose We will be clear, your disputing that he's not using the hour

it's, a literally, not important when I've actually hasten. Also here with us is sooner writer. Clare Malone. High pay this time you do, it meant that's how you do it if you and I were caucus, go when you go to your cock, a site exactly when we will recordings dot village not later and worried about your worries. Somebody empty someone's listening, and I wonder, like a one be cool way. Ok, also, when people listening to us we're just gonna, be DR time today, when we, it will mean Langley one week, wow, gave him one that one might drop. Kalen walk if I drop our guy. Also here with us, is managing editor Micro, current harry you pleasure to be here, and despite all that night, we have some happy news. It is our fourth birthday launched this podcast exactly one week before the Irish Caucasus in two thousand sixteen listeners compared how we spent four years together. You announced that in the tunnel on friday- and my initial thought was like need has been met-

pod? Cuts are by your heart, are in power who hunt? Would you say it the voice of improved, worsened over the four year? What would you say improved? I think it's gone through phases. You I mean, I think it's I feel like listeners, get get a weird impression, but, like we they like each other. We do we actually sort of hang out and enjoy them yeah, surprise how a super convince up up up up here. According to the CDC here, the milestones a four year old should reach cooperates with others children. No. Now we have reached that often can't tell what's real and what's make believe, ultra for us No, some basic rules of grammar, such as correctly using he ensuring we do that

call stories, we do that. I think we're maybe we're a little behind for a four year old but we're getting there. I listen to like ten minutes of the first episode we ever recorded. We have improved its improved yeah yeah. I think, like recent additions to the podcast, have really so solidified I will say, be minor, see plus two to a it. You Take me a lot longer to edit the podcast cast O interesting. People help. I just have Stockholm syndrome. People have gotten better at speaking. I think just in general. You not using feller words or being concise and to the point in expressing our points. Sometimes well. That was fun. Happy birthday, everybody anyway. According to the five thirty democratic primary forecast Sanders,

odds of winning. The majority of delegates increased from twenty two percent. On Friday, just three days ago, to twenty eight percent today, on Monday night, what's behind Sanders, as surge beyond the top level odds as clear that its more based on early state level, pole or national poles, its both, which is kind of what you'd expect this kind a medium, speed, media size surge right. It's not kind of sudden like the camel Harris or death a debate it hasn't been his prolonged, as they now reversed. Frankly, Elizabeth Warren Surge of the summer and fall, but it's well timed what is behind it? I suspect, It is that believe it not. There are actually so degree of lanes the primary, and I think that probably some people were on the fence between. Sanders and more in our coming back to Sanders. I also suspect that there are undecided,

voters and there are bordered votes for minor candidates right who buy about the re, sir, might be at one or two percent right and some of those probably go to it to Sanders. It does really seen in becoming at binds expense and if you look at our polling, you know that Biden is like always at exactly twenty seven percent, and is it exactly when he's ever twice point one or something as recording this this morning. You know if we get more complicated, probably some conflicting dynamics going on right, we're Buddha Church has fallen a bit. Maybe his supporters go to warm than some warrants pledge going to Bernie write me by would actually be gaining in holding Seti, if not for this actual Bloomberg gains in the pulse of their always different dynamics. Let me say one thing: this this kind of mean going around her neck going around that hey Bernie has always been the split has been ignored. That's not true. This actual five or six point surgeon had these had is pretty important because being fifteen per nationally, which is where Warren is.

Our model is a much worse position, not that it's hopeless for her, but like much worse than being a twenty one percent. We're Bernie is, is it accurate to say this Sanders surge, such as it is its content it happened in two stages where there was I don't. I was like a month ago, a month and a half ago, where we were writing on the site and talking about on this podcast haze Bernie this is actually in a pretty decent position here and as this, I can most likely to win the nomination and then more Certainly you ve had kind of another little surge wearies. We yeah. I think there is kind of like a few weeks a month ago, like this change and perception exactly that was people. Finally notice that oh ok, well, worn is up to the third place that happened in our polling average around thanks, giving that centres overtook, worn for second place, but more war and falling than him gaining right and warlike okay. Well, they were always kind of man

scenarios where develop Patrick will get in her Bloomberg will get in which he did. I guess writer something will happen. Club ajar, surge or something, and none of that really happens, but I kind of like ok, well Biden, doesn't when it and by Dell, four cases. Someone is also oddly kind of ignored for being in a position. The poles then Bernie will actually either way or be the main rival, but then he has actually gained recently gently and now those are important game, just like you can't winder in any state with fifteen percent about you can't win state with eighty percent of the vote, the one slightly sour note for Sanders? Is that I'd say asserted is the most ambiguous in Iowa, and let's talk a little bit more about the specific. State of the race in Iowa in a minute. But first we can look at all these Well then see that centres is doing better. Obviously, the poles are not themselves gonna. Tell us why exactly that's happening,

What are some theories are incurred? You haven't idea what's going on here for voters, if it's the conflict between him and Warren or something else. I think what's interesting too, such with cinders in Iowa- is the actual patch he's giving to voters. Which is a general election pitch right? He is saying basically like same thing on the stump that his I'm sure virtual talking points to door. Knockers that started the horn feud set, which is very sanders, brings trump voter types back to the democratic party. More than any, their candidate well, and I think it's an interesting patch now you'll see tons of Obama people campaign. I'm from about the Obama era floating around in saying we have to cut this off at the leg. Cinders cannot when the primary. He is not a good general election candidate, you're, seeing you see, newspaper endorsements go to me

moderate candidates, but I think that the argument that Elizabeth Warren is perhaps troubled from the and we use it. For with all the fruitless that entails was with worn, has instructed Elect thing in part, because she is a woman, I think again, because she's, maybe even trying to ride the line, a little bit more about how liberal her positions are and how doable their people just kind of like the aid, that Sanders has been this one thing The entire time- and I think, there's some got instinct from people but where they say, oh, maybe has a point about the general action that right and I think it has a little bit to do with war and falling and Sanders Qana having a good past month, or so I mean, I think he was pretty good on the blast debate our voters and debate actually like warrants performance, but in seem to translate into a machine. I haven't, got a good run, a general election poles. If you look at National Paul's like just to keep this super

both Sanders is increase, has coincided with a slight Warren down tech and a gradual Buddha judge down slope and just kind of at a glance that makes some Mama sense to me that he would pick up that his brutal judge voters well, why? Why would people? I mean if you look at the overlaps, people say who are you considering Buddha Judge Sanders one of the least overlapping, but you're you're talkin bout again of a few percentage points here so like you gave it, I mean it's not like it takes all that many voters to increase it, but like yeah, why would one vote for budget right he's this thirty seven year old, mayor of a small town. I think one of the big reasons people were considering him and our considering them is, they think, he's electable. They think here's a fresh face will look at on

the babe stage against Trump? Until I wonder if some of those people are now looking at Sanders, as of actually maybe countering they have put their ideology aside for a second Sanders is actually the electable candidate. He can put some of these places in the mid without excites young people to excite young people can, whenever some of those above top boaters, etc, etc. One thing that you mentioned it that I wanted to come back to you is this idea that some of the minor candidate could be losing support that ultimately goes to centres. I've heard talk about that earlier in the race like Toasty, Gabert or Andrew Yang, if their support would eventually go to Sanders, is there any actual evidence of that pulls at this point. So Yang is actually Yankees, urging the Yang surge as actually and he's actually ahead of the much or heralded Amy Club, which are in earnest calling aborigines at like four percent so Yang out? The answer is no basic right, but you know, but There are a lot of other cannon.

Right there were formerly Camel Harrison and Corey Booker and helium right and they didn't do that well, but they collectively had Seventy percent of the vote you undecided about that It was around twelve or thirteen percent right at me, MIKE it's coming earlier, which is like important emphasise right. We're not talking about an earth shattering the large change in absolute terms. Right centres has gone from fifteen or sixteen international pulling average as a kind of the mid too late summer to eighteen percent as December to twenty one percent. Now right, That's not like a earth shudderingly large change in absolute terms? It just happens to be pretty important, just because the way the math, where Would you go from fifteen to twenty one, as I say like, though that's important kind of infection point, and so I think we're talking about him. Having made enormous pick. Ups are just import

and you know- and there are these kind of loads floating around- that they give you opportunities to gain ground at or maybe that's why the search looks more dramatic if you're looking at the forecast than if looking at national polling. Well, it's not even that dramatic in the forecast minutes meaningful, but it's like his chances have gone up. What for a percentage points, and we will by work what are they doing about three days? One thing about the forecast that were nearing actual voting right. So if this were a week a week, if this were the summer, not exactly a win. If this were, weak point This was a summer, then every reason say: okay, well, that's dies but like their problem, more shifts in the race right, so its timing of it that matters right, because he I mean you can kind of silk and unruly change while the block right simples Ivan downs above them up, but like gaining a few points, at this time, is pretty a sleep time for bed

I don't mean to make that employers, though, like he's just been lucky Maybe it is in all the fact that he has a lot of money has very enthusiastic porters me. I stopping appeared a moment in this whole campaign is the moment Warren surges, she's kind of declare a national front runner or co front runner in MID October and then neither the left. Nor are the kind of matter it's really embrace. Her right I can either one of those things. Having happened, you could imagine the left. Having said we have, you like about burning with things like about Warren. Work is almost in a position where she can be Biden and GOSH now for sport to her she's gonna, be nominated, ripe, didn't happen. In fact, Sanders got like some key and prince from AIR Sea and the squire The Sanders supporters who were summit must vote people were became pretty, Anti war and rights that happened at the same time, the establishment,

terrified of nominating Warren Mere Peak they from the right kind of worked right in Sochi, really got squeeze and Sanders hasn't actually gotten that much attacks, dauntless surly stick in part, like you, see I'm getting a little bit more criticism, particularly in interviews with journalists? Were people say he continually fails to give specifics policy proposals, but I do think voters are also kind of like doesn't really matter. If you don't how specifics you're probably knock it again, you think passed but we'd like to have a forceful advocate from the side of things I think there's something interesting going on with that and also there's a little bit to go to the grass roots support stuff. If we're trying to really think through tangibly. What's not in these last couple of weeks, and I are on the ground and the clock is things I wish you, the Caucasus. Are the communal persuasion, the way of voting and the sea. This campaign is had this kind of viral persuasion campaign where people will say

talk to your friends and family about by your voting for Bernie Sanders right, which is kind of away. I think for the campaign to recognise the problem tat online with certain supporters giving the pain, a sort of noxious name and some other staffers react red Mark, Tracy's profile of David, Sir RADA, a sometimes sparring partner of needs over the twitter. But I think that that's an interesting thing illegal. How playing out in Ireland last week before the Cox's. You know that those sort of like a home spun persuasion liked talked a grandma about hey you were in a union Bernie Sanders is the union. Can I think there are some type of shift that kind of coincided with the heart attack that centres had and the kind of Bernie is back, which focus on a more positive message right, because one interpretation is that Sanders would actually,

underperforming before that haven't gotten forty, three percent of the vote before and being at only fifteen percent nationally was pretty weak and that he is now fulfilling his potential as they shift in a more positive message, include the campaign alpha telling it almost four liquidity hate beach. We'll be nice right, as opposed to kind of the first for the year, whereas it was very online, very confrontational, and I think you have you know that gear. Obviously, but I do think that, like the tone the shifted in a way that has helped Sanders. I wanted

a little bit more specifically about Iowa, but first today's podcast is brought to you by C span: go deep, direct and unfiltered with sea spans campaign. Twenty twenty you'll find in depth coverage of all the candidates, issues and events that are staring us to election day, follow the campaigns unseen band and then did even deeper in sea. Spans online archive get an unfiltered view of politics with cease bands campaign at twenty twenty on the C span television, works on the c span app or online at C span. Dot Org make up your own mind with sea spans campaign. Twenty twenty. Today's package is also brought to you by eighty t: commercial for business politics as usual these days and it's not business as usual at eighty eighty. Eighty two

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Iowa. Is that you'd surge late in the game and beat expectations is what Sanders is doing? urging late in the game or is there still kind of room for things to get mixed up quite a bit when it actually comes down to caucus day as far as I will goes, I mean question Galen, I think the end there is the timing might be perfect or it might not be perfect, and we won't really know until from today weak and changed from today, yeah. So they're literally, is that you know the kind of scenarios it surging extremely late. That has happened before, like John Kerry surge in two thousand for happened extremely late. Santorum surgeon. He doesn't twelve happened, extremely late, so I know what the mechanism might be, but you do have to me. Look our model still has his gigantic conference intervals for Iowa Rights, as will burn you get somewhere between eight percent and forty. Two percent of the vote, probably right

the that is borne out by the fact that number one pulling in the Caucasus little bit rough number two, you absolutely can of a meeting area that shifts over seven days, I do think it's amazing by the way that the two national front runners there's not really act like negative storylines about either Biden or Sanders right now, you kind of wonder if the Sanders. Recalling Miss not from centres himself, but from people around him makes people afraid to attack him, and that does Bernie good. Right swimming when it comes to media narrative in the run up to the Caucasus is one thing that happened over the weekend. Is the domain register endorsed Elizabeth Warren?

we tried to a little bit about whether not endorsements matter in the past, but clear Michael. Do you see this particular endorsement being meaningful, given how important Iowa is generally on this progress? We talk about endorsement from like party elites, elected officials here we're talking out and in a newspaper endorsement right, which is similar, yes, but but a little different, Jeffrey Skelly on of our elections analysed looked at this for the site. The Damone registers endorsement has at least coincided with, on average, about a four five point bump in when you compare people's poles at the time of the endorsement, to eventually finish now. Some years, like John Edwards in two thousand for was pulling out about eleven percent when he got the endorsement and one about thirty three percent of the vote, so that a huge bump was it down to the deployment of Stern dose meant. Well, I don't know other years. There is basically no change right, but I think the right way to look at it is what name was just getting out, which is.

Primaries are so fluid and Mary pulling a so inexact that you just have to go into it. Thinking, hey anything could still happen here and our forecasts reflects the rights alike in this last week. It is totally possible, let's say people and I will conclude the Buddha Judge- doesn't have a chance. His support that rates. Where does echo, let's say closure, who has actually been gaining ground, and I were Paul's she's like in the high single digits, how people might conclude o actually that she didn't get high enough that I'm not gonna waste. My vote on closer, I think, a lot of alive. Her support could go toward right or to bite or anybody else. So I think this race is still very much it Like any including club which are any of these, people could win, and it will be that surprising right. The cool but surely will be surprising because she has to prior that for other people. It would not

surprising if she got like third place which values in which case, given that you like a new Hampshire, endorsed Snoop newspaper endorsement. How would that serve like like each that's an interesting thing right, include Bashar does decently well, and I are probably isn't gonna win but like Please show she plays their shows. What does that do need for her chances in New Hampshire these if the model Maybe this is a good explain, moment club, which are actually does what Oh ok in New Hampshire specifically, but I am sceptical of like, like their different scenarios, where club char, let's say, finished top three, and I were the media which is after knowing how much they are kind of frankly, seems eager. But our surge right, I could see her becoming like kind of it. Sort in the way that, like John Husband, was brief? fact her right after finishing third in New Hampshire and then Maybe she also finishes there New Hampshire, and then you know frankly, I know

Thank you, they're, Nevada or South Carolina looked like very good states for her, and then she may be Windsor Minnesota primary. A milliner caucus. They produce day and then bows out or something right. So, for every Wednesday, Actually Windsor comes close there, ten scenarios involving her becoming a factor but actually coming close to winning that's a barrier right like if she were consistently theirs. All that came out last night, air at twelve or thirteen percent in third place right, That's pull the, however, as an exception. If you consistently had poles like that, if you really have thirteen percent instead of eight like actually matters a fair bit at thirteen percent in Iowa yeah, I don T with any of that. The one thing I will say is you could imagine closures urging and I were and it being super isolated, just give her regional connections to the state

I do think it's no worthy that she has also climbed on time, but she has a climbed a ton and I were either you know she's up to the minute I single digits in New Hampshire too. So maybe that does suggest that if she is able to do something- and I were she at least- has some based work off of in New Hampshire, weak. Heaven it away from talking about the domain registers endorsed, warrant, but I'm curious Clare. You point about, Sanders is closing argument in Iowa, basically being birdie beats tromp, which is what you see on the science right. What is Warren's closing argument ones closing our meant seems to be one that's more of a traditional democratic primary appeal, which is, I am the one who best represents your desires for the future and and the smartest and best equipped to do the job. I think in other years. That would be a persuasive argument. You democratic primary voters,

But in a primary where people are obsessed with Trump trumpet like this fascinating bogeyman to democratic primary voters for good reasons, certainly but there's this idea of how will he get under the person skin? Right as if we we don't we haven't seen for years of evidence for how he does it, which is like leg. You know how that may be about to hurt you. I hope you gotta. Let me tell you something, and I think Also that mean this is the sort of more interesting part to me in some ways, which is voters seem to care last suppose, ability to do the job, probably because of trap right. The idea of there used to be this. This idea that only geniuses, MEG Lemon I call or otherwise ran for president and were good at the job. Perhaps the pub has been disabused. That notion there's more of a reckoning. In that. Presidency is can be bolstered by smart and powerful and influential non

Doctors and therefore you want a person who is ideologically pure from your point of view, Turkey, by the office anyway, laws of war- and I think states perhaps does we're seeing through the numbers, suffers from having quite a coherent and traditional. Appeals to two primary voters. She's also making the elect ability case and that in the last days did didn't on registers Us Headline Elizabeth warns, closing argument. I wins women win, quoting. What am, I think, that's telling two ways one. It chose to some extent. That she's been on the defensive on that point as pit as people have raised these elected body questions but to at least unless there's there's a swing unless we days you know it does suggest that declares point the bogeyman of tromp, I think he saw in twenty eighteen democratic, odors after the Clinton lost in twenty. Sixteen we're like we're, gonna rally behind women, try to elect women to offices. That's important us. I thought

you ve, seen beating tromp take the place of that to some extent and twenty twenty where a lot of voters I sang electing. As important as beating Trump is the first priority and that's how we have such a three men. You know atop the poem chart, I'm curious. This is something that the model can tell us, although it public information. We can see what would happen if each one of those four candidates were to win the IRA Caucasus. In a nutshell, I do want to take up too much time on this but how does each of them winning the IRA Hocker's shift? The national picture by winning puts them in a fairly commanding position has already had nationally. There be a lot of scepticism about why this burnt. Thing is allowed or whatever, Bernie winning, I think, leads to a very competitive race between probably Bernie and Biden in which, depending on bird, brings margin of victory and whereby

ashes either candidate could be kind of a slight favorite Warren winning would, at this point likely create a big bounds, come back story. Her polling is now. Robust as Sanders is, or binds and states after Iowa. That could be case where you get about it becomes very compatible really might be more more fifty fifty s right also Sanders might not want, I don't think he'd quit unless you really badly right and boost winning is kind of your kind of club which our country the same case right, that's your kind of classic. They would get a balance and become a big part of the conversation I attended based on looking at centres in the model, they would not necessarily my favorite, they might become a second favorite behind, depending on who did well. There may be Biden or something, but it's not that hard to figure out. I mean that one the silver lining in Iowa for Warren

much rather be gaining in the polls in Iowa you'd. Much rather be in burning position than weren't position There is a slight silver lining, which is that, because expectations factor into the bounce Now burmese win in Iowa is a little bit more expected that might lead to a smaller ounce warns, when would be considered very surprising, even though she's not that far behind, I think a bullet when would be considered surprising now, even though he is also not that far behind. In fact, he's really just a couple of points off them runners. So, in some ways like the question is Ok Sanders is like Sir, well, timed miniatures, probably yes, but the downside of that is that conventional wisdom. Even the polls show basically Sanders in and by the time now that the commission was that Iowa is Bernice to lose, you know or burn out with low to like downplay expectations a little bit, because that, we not really justify, based in the polls

tied family than you have. Third and fourth, and maybe, if its place who's. Not some chance is also so long. Rap on this, given how much attention has been focused on Santer is now that he's improved his position in international and state of appalling. Is the Democratic Cavalry Establishment Cavalry coming out against him, or they still choosing to remain someone on the sidelines in this primary well great question: there have been rumblings for quite a while that Barack Obama is not like her Anderson does not want him to when the democratic primary Hilary clear, obviously stir a lot of Knowing last week when she Bessy said no one examined does want to work with him, which is obviously lots

but I do actually like I'm writing, choose more referring to interpret that she was referring to the establishment, but you know there's a political peace that quoted, for instance, Obama's twenty twelve campaign spokesman on the bolts, basically saying he's gotta be stopped now: Obama World people did forcefully push a peace last week that sort of said Obama himself has said that Nazi under severe, I think the Obama people are really protective Obama's sort of role, as he the one present in this Trump Obama tussle is actually maintaining his dignity. Cares about the constitution about me in a sort of higher statesmen like duties and he's not gonna put a thumb on the scale for anyone, no matter how he feels. Personally, I don't know if that's true, but that certainly the public line there taking and taking very forcefully. So I think that's probably coming from from some. You know, informal networks of that.

Form a white house. But it's interesting. Obviously, when you, when the name the Obama coalition, is you know it's your name. In the Obama coalition being in class whites and young people and black voters. Turning out in you know, on cancer to elect a Democrat you might have yeah, shall we say, bias towards that particular strategy where Bernie Sanders would say it's old. It old paradigm. You can't think that way anymore. So I I don't think the democratic establishment, has done anything meaningful to combat Bernie. I think you ve seen sums. Worries about. You know it's kind of like the republican, serious concerns, and it is in the nature democratic party to do that limit and are in addition to that, Democrats have the same problem that Republicans did and twenty sixteen, which is that the most effective way If you're really worried that Bernie Sanders

a general election and you want to prevent him from winning the nomination. The most effective way would be to rally behind another candidate. We seen biding climb Indians in our endorsement tracker a bit, but it's not like most most Democrats are still sitting on the sidelines he's gotten court a few endorsements, although their mostly from like Mary, urban representatives right and not like centres and governor right, so I just don't think you ve seen anything any like any movement on the part of established Democrats to stop Barney that when that is at all likely to have any effect yet now, if he wins Iowa Winds, New Hampshire, I think you might see a lot of Democrats say: ok, that time is now we're rally behind Biden, blah blah blah robot, depending on salt or maybe not like you, we kept waiting for that to happen and twenty sixty limiting publicans and never did. Let me raise three very important differences, which is why I think this sin There's trump parallels are overstayed, at least in this respect. Right number, one

is that Sanders is much low, sir, to the democratic mainstream. Then Trump was what we understood, pelican mainstream, to be in twenty. Sixteen right, he has been on the left to the party, but is gender? Isn't that different than other candidate, who feel laughter mean compared to tromp right he's not explicitly criticising past. GNP nominees right. It's a matter degrees, but, like rare, ok, number two. You can have a debate about that. We can have a substantive debate about you could and make the word you put in there that we understood at the time are important there. I think Trump is pretty close to the republican mainstream, but not the way that the establishment perceived it work here, an example? Trumbull literally flipped, some republican positions, unlike Social Security and Medicare, for example,

is Sanders literally flipping a core democratic policy poor like free trade, he flipped the Republicans position on free trade. I think I guess my argument would be forget, like policy position for a second most, local actors are like super crass and don't actually giving about any of this stuff and so sure fine, and so it's more about. How would this person being the nominee affect me right, and I think what we learned about Republicans was they decided? I could get by just fine I wonder if Democrats will conclude the same thing with burning. You see a lot of reporting about red state centres and about Bernie Sanders as a nominee. We saw the same report and with Trump in twenty. Sixteen, but like, ultimately, you know, that's we're lobby north for coming from four Biden is actually from or in those or other Kensington might Bloomberg is coming from

Swing district representatives, but maybe two other differences right number two. Is that so It is not in a strong position, as Trump was. Yes Anders not leading a national pulls by ten point he's trillion vegetables by six points uptake. That's big right number three! Is that credit delegate allocation rules guy The party voters more ability to- change there, my late in the base- because you do not have these winner- takes all states, and so Bernie It has to win the majority or else Superdome gets come into play, and you have kind of a scenario that, of course, all the journals Fine really fine, but I confess it convention, and so that gives the party like a bit more time than you have with promptly that is when you take all states so that their lives are France's. I mean there's also like I didn't write negative the reforms that you. I think it would be this earlier. I think the party

doesn't necessarily think there's a slam. Dunk Elect ability, argument against him against him. Babe, I think, if you talk to the average democratic party actor, I'm just going to guess. Okay and it's matches cannons fishing poles. I think it would say if we have to pick between the top four, we would prefer on electability grounds by but after that, exactly maybe already. I think it's honestly what the average, if you corner the average establishment person, I think that's what the average person would think there it, but to be clear, There isn't a slam, dunk electable it ok against Sanders nor war when it goes a second best in the polls against Trump. We will wait much, but like it's worth noting will we actually have one more topic to discuss and I refer to impede, had an almost entire podcast about the current state of the democratic process

raise an IRA and centres etc. But let's talk about these new regulations being reported from the draft of John Bolton's book, but first today's podcast is brought to you by zip recruiter. Hiring is I but there's one place you can go where hiring is simple fast and smart and grew businesses connected qualified candidates that zip recruiter dot com. EL tourist, zero, Dylan Mescal at experience, how challenging hiring can be after unsuccessfully searching for a director of coffee for his organic coffee company But then he switched zipper cruder and saw an immediate difference. Who can too by signing up for free zipper, quarter, dot, com, slash five three eight zero critter doesn't depend on candidates, finding you it finds them for you, and it's technology identifies people with the right Sperience and invites them to apply to your job, so you get qualified candidates faster. In fact, after posting, his job to Cyprus,

Dylan said he was amazed by how quickly great candidates were applying, and he found his new director of coffee in just a few days tries ever heard or for free at this web address, zip, recruiter, dot, com, slash five, three: eight, that's zipper! Critter dot com, slash five, three eight than not the letters Zip recruiter, the smartest way to higher. On Sunday, the New York Times reported on a manuscript of former national Security adviser John Boltons book. The times wrote that quote President Trump told his national security adviser in August that he will, to continue freezing three hundred and ninety one million dollars, insecurity, assistance to Ukraine until officials there helped with investigations into the Democrats, including the violence Clare. How is this reporting from boltons book different from

what we already knew. Well it spelling out what a lot of other people have basically said, was their impression of what of why Trump Wanta to withhold aid from Ukraine, namely, You hold it over the head of the Ukrainian so that they would get caught Uncle John Biden, Bolton is kind of saying it from the inside. He sang it, you know How does a not as a Democrat right, but as in the tank Hawkish Trump White House Republican. This is what happened as an actual security adviser. I was privy to a lot of stuff. This is true. This was what Trump wanted and hears Here's a goddamn, but a great ambitions in the hand, is worth saying that Trump tweeted out shortly after this maritime support came out. That bottom was not telling the truth and this never happened. Yeah and you know people, I guess will do a lot of things to sell their books, which is

is what transfiguring his line of argument nation is, but it seems given the fact that this is basically bolstering what now numerous other people have said and probably like what com sent, says in many ways, given the accumulated number of people telling the same story about what Trump was sank like it's. It's not a surprising. It does not coming out of the blue, well known saying given want other people have said Anne trumps record of lying. I think you you would you would easily conclude that Poland is telling the truth if these reports about what is books as our true but declares point the fact that this is just coming out now when his book goes on. Pre order is ridiculous, like let us be clear about that. How freaking crass can you add. You have the impeachment of the president of the United States. You have relevant information about it and I dont know that these leaks came from the bottom camp, but it's

looks that way and you're like you're. Using this, relevant information to sell your book like are you fucking kidding, The Bolton I've worked very humble shares. They could see the boat. People should say our saying. Oh, this is coming from the White House just getting out there come I like ok to make a serious point off off of their site. I think it goes to Are you how there have been moments during this impeachment trial, where media sort of like pretends that day, is an actual debate about substance and people are actually kind of weighing the legal order it's for and against impeach men and the constitutional questions and the evidence for net foreign against what what

allegations are against Trump. This kind of thing, just I think, should serve as a reminder of like how much of a game this is to the people involved right where one of the principal players in this drama feels fine. Withholding relevant information may be his book is available for sale like it should just be a reminder that there are a lot of peace? taking all this seriously and they should a lot of the principal actors involved are not to some make sense. I mean I don't know if it's fair to extrapolate from John Bolton that people art debating in an intellectual way the legal requirements of the constitution? Like the argument over what actually happened? It's pretty clear. What actually know would have had that information, but then saying and therefore, according to our constitution, this present needs be removed. I believe that there are people who are grappling with that intellectual question: principal actors like senators, how many

I don't know. I I think the majority of senators are not approaching this passion than I jack this and talk about the institutions of of government this is about. Is the other visitors in the gallery Abraham hijack in a different direction, so interesting to read articles about, like the rate, these are terrible for this, and it's like really cannibal, because its super boring I've watched it. But what's crazy is just like a total neutering of the legislative branch by legislative branch self Neuter put I mean it's astounding, it's amazing, it is, is absolutely sounded like that's that's. My whole reaction to the is just like they're, just like getting an institution given that doesn't seem this new information will because actually

make it you're saying this is coming out of the perfect time for Bolton. There's also coming out of the perfect time for Democrats if they were going to put republican senator in an awkward position about voting against having witnesses right so does new information change, the calculus at all for at least four republican senators on the question of whether or not there are going to have Bolton testify, oh my says Hence a story came out Romney historic him out with written Mitt Romney, saying he thinks it's like likely that more Republicans will say we need to see witnesses, although Romney said. I haven't made my final decision yet Balboa, Lindsey Gram, tweet. Something like if we hear from witness is we have to hear from the bite in sport, something like there needs to be rather profit sharing accurate and not really sure it does now. It does

it kind of does from appear from appear a few gonna call witnesses, we're gonna call witnesses. It makes sense yes, but this isn't like this. This is the impeachment of president. It's not like who gets to take turns playing ski ball. It's in the wood. The witnesses should be relevant to the two. What the cases about right, I sleep in here is like the damn american who's that road and falling impeachment that money can find out about. I'm very much, not us and our eyes tat. I think this is relevant. I look it an ILO convention morning brought is relevant, the bottom stuff, like it obvious. It was obviously do Trump released. The transcript of there was a quid pro quo in the way as zone recollection of the call now the conquerors lightly obvious from day one wait. So then how much does not change anything if, as Europe stand in for the american voter, there was,

from day one, because this is someone very credible, saying dirt clearly that there is a quid pro quo and it's coming after me this goddamn, making its case and saying, there's no direct. Not anonymous allegation of a quid pro quo and what and another, and now there is it for. First of all, some of the context here is the trumps embers people are actually getting worse. Not dramatically worse, but, like it's gone from forty eight forty nine percent the fifty one percent and none of gone from forty seven before something right dramatic but like it actually gone that well in the Senate, part of the trial and necessarily- and also like, Reggie up Santer. You dont like having the rug, pull them from under you. You don't like having a I'm sure of this. Nation between the White House in the Congress image Mcconnell about kind of how to run, operation and they probably are smart enough. Some of them to know there's a little bit of kabuki going on here, and they can act it roller?

is another tongue and not say anything when they know that committee's happening right. This makes the White House like very disorganized and kind of a show. Is very damaging to Trump they are hoping that it would only come out after the trial was concluded, and they might say like? I do not think this is gonna unfurl one thing that always a risk with any impeach. Immediate action is that the Senate votes to not to convict and then further evidence comes out after word, that is very damaging to Trump and then maybe, if you are a swing state Santer you're like you didn't do you additional duty, please listen to the evidence and call witnesses like I can imagine that being a problem for a swing state republican. I will say: Emmy, nay, brings up a great point, which is the evidence, is kind of basically said all this. From the beginning, the White House admitted Munich but really prince a memo, not a transcript. That basically said the same thing. It seems like the evidence is really accumulator to say, like guess what happened, and I think

It's been so interesting to be locked in for the past couple of months into this just totally bizarre backwards. Reasoning based entirely on artisan, and to go back to my point about the gutting of the legislation, legislative branch it's just like this really fascinating, but just it's like it: nothing, but a moral quandary for these centres. Right, like that's what it comes down to you. I don't think it's at evidence base thing it's like if the it's it's like, it but in some cases a classic jury trial right. If a judge has just decided decision, the lawyers appeal differently right, they d, more intellectually, more evidence based fewer try, a lawyer. If your specialists, nothing, you think about the way you dress the thing you think about the way, talk to the jury, its inherently subjective process and that's kind of what this is too and like the jury is actually the american public rather than the senators, because american public elects a senators and the senators are sort of him in the thrall of what they think the public wants to do. I love that's a cold

thought, but I just want to say it's like completely like. We should acknowledge for a second though we ve been, in a completely like bizarre world for the past two months on this impeachment stuff just two months, while I and finding it to that to this being a heightened period of bizarre in us. Because no one whatever this, It's no longer interesting to say this, but that's the point is that, like everyone, A locked into this thing that the Senate is basically like stepping office. Are strangling itself and everyone's kind of like all, look, there's some swinging over there. It it's in, it's insane visible, I say it such at such Kabuki theatre is first of all the bones. Is new in the sense that, even though I think the call transcript showed this already, it connects trump directly to the quid pro

A lot of the test money in the house didn't have first hand exposure to Trump doing the quid pro quo right so that no, but it's not like the defence from Republicans or trumps defence is simply saying: hey some bad stuff happened here. We think democratic over it. It's not impenetrable right there's. They are like questioning the congresses, ability to conduct oversight, of the presidency for abuse of power. It such an extreme argument that that the president's backers have sort of explicitly and implicitly sided with that. I think it's as clear said it's like it stunning to watch- and I think, belies the emptiness of the whole thing that it is Kabuki Theatre too, to a large extent show, does anyone here. I think that this new information,

John Bolton fundamentally changes that president trouble be accorded by the Senate ignite. I don't know we got it could shut, like Susan, I thought all rural our eyes, like maybe get it. I've been this type. Now I do think, like you know, it could be. We always talk about Susan Collins. I get its becoming struck, but Hearst. This is worth saying, visits in her statement about the buttons If she says the reports about jumbled book strengthen the case for witnesses, prompted a number of conversations among my colleagues in our internal slack channel. Someone then posted a tweet from the of Nebraska, whose end she says quote it doesn't take a subpoena to put out a statement if Ambassador Bolton has so big day. He could do that. So that's it that's! The idea of you don't need to call Bolton tat to let him have, as you know, have essay the man can just like you know I'll talk to your stuff, Annapolis or something TAT is true, yes, which is true, so ok there too

Of course it right does the boat news change. What Republican Senators- are likely to do with regard to allow witness testimony. I think that's possible muttered likely, but it's possible and certain it certainly likelier that than that of all that it will change what they do with regards to acquitting Trump at the end of this week, but I've been saying all along. Despite events continually may wrong that people are like underestimating. The chant is that this doesn't ended quit or again. I don't think it's likely. The final piece of this here is so the likely scenario is that President trumpet is acquitted. How much then do senators of votes on the final resolution of this acquittal or removal from office affect their electoral prospects of going forward? But can we look at the Clinton impeachment

say that some senators had to pay a price for how they voted. So far, principle super are little higher than they were pre impeachment process, even though it in sport also gone up a kind of converged, little bed, olive economies been pretty go there other kind of factors that factor air report, anymore, Parson, move because democratic, primary and stuff, but yeah. I mean. I know that we have finished this brother, their electoral repercussions for how you vote. In this I mean for Clinton like pretty clearly couldn't over perform in the nineteen? Ninety eight, I guess it was meant terms because people did not like the impeachment trial I was pretty clear at very rare, for a party to overpower actually gained seats in MID term Democrats did and impetuous explanation, that was a very, very unpopular. Impeach impress where's this one's, like mildly popular, and so it's it's a bit different. I mean you know. Sir

for calling my witnesses is very high, so the talking point that hey whatever you thought about impeachment the GEO. Refuse to actually have affair. Trial and call witnesses, like that's a pretty decent talking point, I think for Democrats right so if this is faded to end in acquittal anyway, to democratic, actually not want with witnesses, Maybe it well, ok, maybe right, because It just gives them a good time. It's a matter of was apparently laughing. I continue to think that enough of them would under the rates it is be willing to throw Biden under the bus reciprocity. Yeah. Anything is possible in this topsy. Turvy world. We live by the way by the warriors. Agri, snuffing amateur frame. Dont refrain now rain. Unframed frame frame frittering, I was going to say we should put. We should officially put

key theatre on our do not say, a book. Legit ive things, kabuki dance heads if you watch any of the networks, while different coverage is going on basic kabuki like I know it goes, it add added to my list a pet peeves of use of state. Nicknames and kabuki. Honey- I don't hocker, so I'm going to have as its you're out of your right hawk is, if you, if you're right, I would. Forty seven, I must say I why why yes salute. You can also just saved all strongly held opinion you're, just a dusty if resident autumn, the hawk I state could could write in it. I don't care level eating away, literally, don't care, it is so foe, folksy, stupid and I hate it forever. External EU tacitly Iowa hackers. New Hampshire, mica, granite state. I knew the grandest South Carolina Palmettos,

Nevada, Saddlehorses, Silverstone. I know we're leaving an I go all out, because I did that fifty states Areas- Can you guys all say the states in order People Alamo Esker, errs on August, Alfred Cholera, romantic aware Florida, George required ILO, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, ILO, Kansas who is at a main Marilyn Massachusetts. Michigan minutes items a bizarre amity and about to happen during the mexican government on a quarter Ohio homework on the veto on South Carolina. That's gotta, Tennessee taxes. You too Virginia Washington, West Virginia Wisconsin, Wyoming Boom. The closure. It's not that hard. You name is seven non state nominating contests and the democratic primary Guam Parliamentary year Us Virgin Islands a broad democratic grants abroad. That's what the other vote on Super Tuesday Like our unloading, you say, but it's like a ten vapor, don't Micronesia they get screwed.

I am ready to answer for four. The other than I know you give us ahead with its The programme is soon you're missing to really obvious ones and one Washington Dc American item, our american tomorrow to my question, and then this one's a hard one. This is an easy one to supply the first. We should again non state. Voters you're, erasing military, erasing, that's right or out of bad stuff happened to a recently Guantanamo, very supportive of the innocent Erika history. Every day I got all I'd like to be heard their democratic parties and wants out about Guantanamo Carcass can you imagine the animal we a pretty miss one famous one, which is our one. The northern Mariana islands. Clearly running water fund because it's our birthday but we're gonna, we things there. Thank you need thank again. Thank you. Clare thinks gallon. Thank you. Mica. Send this birthday present.

A couple of things before we go one we alive show in Manchester New Hampshire on Sunday February. Ninety two days before the primary there go, get your tickets at five, thirty, eight dot com, slash live! Also this five. Thirty is launching the when women, IRAN Project and here's a little explain about what this is. One hundred years after women were granted the right to vote the? U S has more women and political office than ever before. Yet gender has haunted the twenty twenty campaign, including questions about whether a woman can win the presidency so to better understand what it's like to run for office. As a woman, we spoke to ninety seven women who have done it. We're gonna be displaying their stories, their words on our website and in this pipe cast feed and Clare. You spoke to Stacy Abrams S, part This project will be a stand on podcasting review in somebody of that come up later and then all

On Tuesday we have a compilation of many of the different interviews that staffers from across the five thirty eight newsroom did so check this feed on Tuesday and then again towards the end of the week. Every Friday is when we're going to have the Stacey Abrams Interview and again that's the when women run project so check it out. Further data come on this point I M very excited, but there is a real real say: white efforts in the summer, so I d rooms in the empty, but also just like so much of the conversation around gender and sexism and in elections is like Abstract and which she was. She answered just it's hard to measure, and so talking all these women who ran you get a tangible sense of of how it affects these elections in a way, I think that's hard in most data they covered the looking for My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the control room. You can get in touch my emailing us at pie concept, five, thirty dot com. You can also course treated us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave us,

rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell about us. Thanks for listening, Yes,.