I was in the store the other day, and so we just said Hate Chad, right and feel like. I owe you look like my friend Chad. I don't think it was demeaning, but like yeah, I got mistaken for like literally a Chad. How did it make you feel attacked hello and welcome to the five politics podcast I'm doing droop after missing his.

Impose deadlines. More than once it looks like Joe Biden will actually announced his running made this week will have an emergency pike ass for you when that does happen, but today we're gonna. Take our final look at some of the speculation were also going to take a deep dive into the polling comparisons between the twenty sixteen election and twenty twenty Hillary Clinton led President Trump in the average of national politics for nearly all of two thousand sixteen and an boss. The election Biden has been consistently leading as well, but his leave at least so far looks pretty different from Clinton's. Discuss how and what the implications might be, and here at me to do that. Our editor in chief mate, Silver Hany has gone a deal and how are you got that was pretty hesitant barrier? You're, ok, choked yeah choked in the intro all the other pressure of all our listeners for a while

of our audience. While they may be curious about Joe Biden, Vp Peg, there might be more excited for a different announcement this week, which I think now ready to share with our audience. So what is that announcement? Barring extremely spected events which he always after say in these troubled times right. There's an earth North Carolina either day, for example, but we will release our presidential forecasting model on Wednesday morning. All right there you haven't, you heard it here, nine rule. Ninety, ninety seven percent chance, it's a will Ninety seven resent giants and, of course, will have a model talk for you all when that happens. Also, here with us is seen or politics rider, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry. I beg you to see gale

and also here with Us- is politics. Editors are frozen in haste era. He came, and Clare is out today, let's begin with vitamins, Vp Peck, and we can keep the short because, as I mentioned, we are going to have an emergency podcast when it comes out, and we also just don't have to wait that much longer until we actually now so spare relation. Is at this point, maybe only worth so much but Perry. Can you lay out for us what the state of the race to be binding, running mate looks like at this point in time, so we We don't know much is the real answer. This question is like we know one person decides and the rest instead of watching that we think it'll happen later this week. I would assume can have. The additional timing is to have it around Thursday Friday, going The convention itself will be announced in his pockets over me, like an idiot, I think the general thinking is the common Le Harris is the favourite

The chosen and it'll be surprising if somebody else, although, as we were talking over we get on it, appears that guy, soon Whittemore flew to Wilmington to meet with the vice president's seven days or so ago, and I think there is a possibility and other picks. Susan Rise, Gretchen, Whittemore Elizabeth Warren, something that has not definitely come over here, I think she's, the person I think, most of the Pandit accuracy in politics, people and Media I think it'll be me and Sarah as people who would qualify as media people. Do you agree? Do you think that it's will be surprising if it's not Kamala Harris at this point, I think it's really hard to tell you know one thing about it. If he picks is that, like there's, usually some element of section or such subset, if Isaac subterfuge so this week, yeah, if you going with one of the obvious choices and you want to create some suspense make, it seem like this person is now. Where they, when their announce kick the tires

Yes, there are less minute issues so you could have a world where it's been Harris for a long time in their going through the motions right you could also world, where you have genuine It's about the obvious alternative alternatives, and that's why you? You know your brain the people into Wilmington, putting out travel. Clearly it serves the interests of Joe Biden or any presidential nominee to puts the name out there see how interest groups react and see what rises to the top you know it officers the interests of the candidate as well. Right, like you know, Karen Bass has a higher profile now that she might have so I think it is very hard to read to me some of the doubts expressed about Harris by Biden allies like Chris. Dad, were surprisingly candid not quite to the point

burning your bridges. But like seemed like more, and it then these remark our ordinarily, but it still doesn't tell you whether alike, in himself has reservations or whether there are kind of vocal factions within within the Biden Camp that might have object. But I think it's really hard to tell what's going on and what you're over there is that Chris Dodd told poetic? among other things, that calmly Harris didn't show any remorse for her attacking violence position on boxing in the first primary debate there? blow back essentially activists. Commentators saying that that was sexist criticism and Kamel Harris's people then defended her to the binding camp and it created. You know a bit about kerfuffle a couple weeks ago, the question here I got Sarah is: does it seem like that? Has the potential to actually shape the outcome of,

the selection process what's been interesting about. It is in that political article, whereas Canna detailing sum of diet, issues with Harris and also seems as if, because he saying oh you now, we can't trust her because of the way in which she attacked by them. In that first the eight she she's, not loyal. That's really opened an avenue for someone like caring bass, too then kind of be put into the national spotlight. Someone who doesn't have as big of a national profile but then going back to needs point, does that really mean that the bite in camp isn't considering Harris as much. I don't know. I thought then magazine had a great piece over the weekend was kind of talking about the final stretch, and there is this line. We're essentially you know all the nominees whether it's Witmer flying in to talk with biotin and kind of do the final wedding They then have to watch all this coverage of you know, advisers and friends of either themselves or by it, and then talking

and gaming. You know his suppose. It thinking and you know to some extent I think we're seeing a test run. Then, if I can, you find holes in some unlike races, resume, who hasn't been in a who hasn't held elected office and gaining dot, is kind of brought bass in ferment. For worse right, but it still doesn't underscore whether or not Harris's candidacy in all of this is in jeopardy per. Do you think that, ultimately, both conflict with in violence batting circle matters for how the ultimate VP pig is perceived by the public, or is this just inside baseball that were only paying attention to, a big, it depends on who the pic actually serve him in his hair ass. I think it will be forgotten and if it's not, I think so I mean it's worth it about what Chris died soon, be implying lakes if Crystal older white Man is going around saying that we couldn't pick common Harris because black woman,

was to mean to Joe Biden when discussing bussing does not great for jobs its campaign. I dont think that is dead will be in the coverage if he does not pick common, whereas it will be in the coverage in a few days. We're matter like totally? I don't know. I don't think this is going to be happy explained if, if the group achieve rationale for Thinking Harris seems to be that she was too mean to Joe Biden. Interracial issue- that's gonna, be discussed, is going to cost verse loud argue personally, I think they'll be not a good look for Joe by them to do it. That way. There are other reasons not to pick Harris, particularly the fact that she ran for president was nobly good candidate at it, but I think then, that region self and sort of lingering bitterness from that in the various you didn't apologize, I guess I'll just be honest, your I worry this process and our nations is Joe Biden, I don't think we should be picking the most pliable black woman. Accordingly, Christa did window and can a where I wonder where we are now, it's like Karen Bath does not seem too ambitious

she's. The aunt I care about is very talented and very smart. I dont think the goal of picking her should be common rules to operate. We can't pick your. I found this process. We further distasteful in the way bite and I don't know, bite and is doing their best, certainly id rendition, Chris Dodd, who are people Joe Biden, was fairly well. Have me comments that I have been uncomfortable with now. I guess the other part of this process that I found to be strange hard to talk about is in two thousand eight, the, he'll choices for Barack Obama were TIM Kane Evan by and Joe Biden White Male, like two dozen, sixteen everyone knew Hillary Clinton would pick a man so in both those process, you had a sort of a sort of affair. In reality there only gonna, pick Obama's like a black person, improbable woman, Hitler's. I could pick a woman, but it was never expressly stated at the beginning. So Joe by

Loretta Swit of claim he was the most qualified person away. That supposed to be quote most qualified older white man was really what he was and so inviting and since earlier this year said, I'm going to pick a woman, I sort of worried that this might turn into a little bit of aid, organization of the role and then as is the come leg, are we gonna have a black when I worries is become even more a token of the role and to be blunt about this Elizabeth Warren, Val dimming and Gretchen Whittemore. Those all three can't be the kit real finalist. Those are three different people you didn't resonates. It would not make any sense to really those are picks for different jobs Some level is hard to imagine he's really taking seriously Elizabeth Warren Gretchen Whittemore unveil It means at the same time, one of those people is kind of fake. Do you think that the

ensuring that you're describing or the divides within the bite in Camp represent divide within the Democratic Party or just something that specific Tibetans campaign. I dont know if there's, via invite as camp or not as I only have Chris Dad's comments for all. I know all the bite and people don't like common, whereas I don't think we know the answer to that question. I do think within the Democratic Party there is clearly a divide between should this pick a be sort of about a rubber international pick, meaning like a black woman. Should this picked be about a left. Word person to balance the tickets so like more like Elizabeth, worn should, as picks someone so one whose story gonna help you more like Torridly Canada, Gretchen Whittemore, hard to imagine Biden is, he buys, must be prioritizing governing Warren, Elect ability, Whittemore, symbolic, recitation, Val di means he must be

in value one of those things over there too, but we don't know which one and we won't know until the pic really. Ok we're. Let's take the easy one of those three to eliminate, which I think at the risk of particularly wrong is probably Warren right, it is a choice where it seems like you to say you're considering her, because that satisfies certain faction of the party right, but it seems a little kind of substantive buzz. About like actual again we're reading TV Your kind of almost literally rabbit assumes like she's, like a name that gets mention kind up in a perfunctory way. I may ethical dimension by Christa, like protection, like all the worst reasons to not take care of it right and the good reason not to picture? As a reason you mention what you said, she ran a campaign. That's probably in the lower court title to be very generous about it of performance relative to expectations. In fact, you might say that this is kind of

If every year you have a campaign, you know feel grammar reject Bush you know, or can't you just kind of totally disappoints than she was that candidate this year and the question is to what extent does that reflect on? How would you would perform? Maybe not as President Barroso vice presidential candidate. I also wonder about picking someone who has an ever run for office before, like Susan Rice, we talked about this a few weeks ago. I know I kind of think whereby news from the perception of do, you least harm that you can write, but it's not entirely clear kind of what the most risk free choices necessarily inevitably in the GDP selection process, some of the leaks, whether it's you know attached to someone like Dodd or more, generic a friend of bite and a friend of ex person who's being considered.

Testing the waters right, like I think, with rice in particular, you ve seen a lot of what about than gauzy. However republic, you know through it one headliner was like Republicans. You like please give us rice rates, would like testing out how various candidates would do, but I think back to what Perry was saying. The fact that in March in that debate, with Sanders, and said I'm gonna pick a woman. It is now shifted. The conversation, particularly as delayed re like he was supposed to do it on his first till do closer to the convention now, but it's now, the council, what kind of woman and less about the qualifications and more just like? Oh, is the right type of women, which I think then kind of as Perry was saying, tokenism the role in all of this, which is unfortunate because, from my perspective, I sort of feel like in March, the most logical candidates for a seventy eight year old person running for president were Amy closure. Elizabeth warning, camel hair like the clearly qualified people

the process, I'm not sure all of this floating and so on. His nose like clarified or change that dynamic in So I am a little bit like. I don't, like you know in general, I think being vet ever BP is good. I don't think the last cohesive ungrateful Karen Bass and I'm not actually sure how seriously erected considering her in the first place and also a confusing, because there's been some like ethnic David Axelrod tweeted on Friday night, Canada, implying that common Le Harris was doing Apple on Karen Bass. To stop her from being the pit. Adam up is true or not, but I think it goes. The pointed is Karen Bath Series candidate or not I don't actually know is Susan Rice. Do it again, I dont know is Warren adding natives right, she's, probably not a serious one, but I dont actually know because we have all kinds of different types of people being like val dimming you if you'd one of how a black woman balconies makes sense

but if you're theme Elect ability, rescuers lot more sentence. I I have found the process. A little bit confusing and unhelpful away. I think- and I don't know if that's Joe Biden Spot or I don't know- if that's the parties, father of this political, it's part of the news media fall, but is something that feels a little bit off here I mean: doesn't it just reflect the different forces in the Democratic party? There's been a large contingent, especially of people close to bite and wake James Kleiber and who, from the beginning that I want you to pick a black woman and so there's been a loud voice, saying it should be a black woman and that's why they have been so many different black women vetted. At the same and the left his sad well, what about Elizabeth Warren and she pulls better with a young African Americans anyway? Isn't it just reflective of divisions in the party? I mean yes and no I mean if you ask the people pushing for a blue, women with true serum, they mean Kamel ahead,

they don't mean Val doings Dave looked at who vice presidents are in the past. They know what they're taking its there is another trying to be sought, a subtle about it, but Why are they say the idea like pushing on here in forcing them into one part, like obviously, don't even want to force one percent on here, but I don't think anybody like there's one it has been a senator representing a black woman, that's kind, why if there was a common harris, and I think there has been a huge push for we demand a black will make has only been we. Whose obviously qualified what about Whittemore, though, and went about Tammy Duckworth, because binding commit to pick a woman. He didn't commit to picking a black women or women of color those are people who, ordinarily there from the MID west there I mean- I guess you can say: Whittemore is only two years into his her term, which is an issue but like worth is someone who would seem like a pretty natural fit she's a woman of color all

but neither of those two would totally shock me. I guess I'd say, whereas, like. Karen Bass seemed more like a choice, a little bit out of of what feel. Potentially, I grew the that's where I think Duckworth, given that she's a veteran too, that plays to part of Baden appeal. They think it still ultimately goes back to Paris. Sad is like because of the active kin, pain from dawn and maybe others in violence camp. The question will now be if it's not comma well, was it because she was seen as too ambitious rate, unlike that undertone in all of this, I think complicates than someone like Duckworth or Whittemore, who have really good recipes for this position, kind of not being seen in the most favourable white. Maybe I'm wrong, that's how them

India would cover, but I think they have to if it's not Harris at this, although whether about Whittemore in women right no be played around President twenty twenty four as well. So this is, the ambition thing is not like judicially vice presidents have plan to run is not been additional qualifications to be VP to rule out running for president, so I dont so the idea that there should be It is a little I think we ve never had a female president, so I sort of would prefer the person whose vice president, women be opened, are running for president, the idea they should rule that out seems insanity to me on some kind of weird loyalty presence, Joe Biden, who thought it already president, when sixteen almost all vps do and so Whittemore, I think, will be issuing choice in that there's: a lotta reflex she's in the west. She did very well acterrally, but in some ways the ambition thinks she's clearly ambitious, which I think is a good thing in all people, including partisans, citing delegation in pig or make a lot of sense. Actually, yes, seventy five percent

became vice president, since where to came prisoner, run for president now. If you lose on a vip ticket, then you do not rarely have that promising a political career, but it become VP. That's a big deal and all these people, Work is considering our women have a lot of Ambition in some years ago, my like critics of Harris were like the worst critics vague If I were a voter, I would want somebody who was ambitious about being president because by MS seventy eight years old, I'm not he's going to serve eight years, I'm not sure about for years, and so it just seems like weird too, Obviously the gender nature of that complaint- I just seems like the exact having to say tat the better token. Seventy five percent. You suddenly like that, so we're to me that

spite and wings in November brightens kicked the next woman president, maybe No, I guess that's, I think. That's a constant reminder throughout this process because it came out announced in March. It's gonna, be a woman as such it drags on? It just takes on a different tone. It was on the merits rate like there's, always like what he was going to pick a woman. So one thing about thing is. Last thing is, I know some of the talk in the party is about it's weird, to have to basically potentially picked between twenty four to Kansas. Now people are nervous about this. A one reason: if you wanted to pick Susan Rice, you would do so, as you said, a stop that process like maybe she runs president too, but I think it's obvious to me that if we Our common law is in the vice president's role. They are going to be planning to run for president and Susan Rice or care embarrassing, and maybe you should have delay the user to defer that decision. You know some even told me the like one, you, Hilary was the inevitable candidate for a long time, but we had some evidence. She was not a great candidate.

This point you have some evidence that common law is not a great candidate. I think, and so therefore you are maybe nervous about putting her in a spot where to get a new Canada. We have to sort of dislodged her. I think that's real there is some real thought about their going. Well, look general, speaking unless you are an elected president don't get a pass for the nomination in eighteen, seventy six when Gerald Ford became President after Nixon Resign, Yoda very vigorous, nearly successful challenge from Ronald Reagan. You know be J in nineteen. Sixty eight was challenged the point where he Britain decided not to run for a second full term. Third, partial turn, so persons, gonna like Walt Scot Free Democratic nomination in twenty twenty four seasoning you're twenty eight, but there might be a fifty two

chance of it and, like Sarah sad right, you know a fifty fifty chance, you're picking, I guess at the next women present the next nominee, but between the chance that Biden didn't remaining office, rough were eight years and the chances person at some point actually becomes. President yeah, there might be a fifty fifty chance. That Biden is picking the first woman president, it's a pretty pretty weighty decision, So this is all the background and we're going to find out who the pig is soon enough and then we'll be able to sort out a lot of what we ve been saying here when we can actually apply to a real running, may pick so expect that later this week, let's move on and talk about how this twenty twenty raise, compares with the twenty sixteen race. According to the pole But first today's package is brought you by a white stream. If you want to save money the summer, why not start by paying less interest on your credit card balances? You can re finance with a credit card consolidation loan from light stream

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Slash five, three, eight for more information. It was around this time in twenty. Sixteen that Clinton notched her largest lead over Trump of the entire campaign. She was ahead by seven and a half points in the national Poles coming off of the Democratic national convention. Today, Biden leads by a similar margin, but even when Biden has led by much more than Clinton that similar points in the race commentators have pointed to Clinton's experience as a reason to be sceptical of the poles. So when you compare their positions side by side, what does it actually look? Like and sir? I know that we have recently done this now, as for the website, as well, so kind of gave us an overview of how violence performance in the polls so far in twenty twenty compares with Clinton's and twenty sixteen okay, so Clinton's peak in twenty sixteen was like a week after the democratic now

convention right and she has seven point: five lead over Trump in the polls. Well, when you look at where Biden is now before, the convention has already had a clear So that's sweet one in his favour right. He has a strong nationally in Clinton at her peak, he also enjoys a higher level of average support. Some of that's not that surprising, because Trump isn't incumbent and twenty sixteen million have any incumbents and so there is less undecided voters, because we know who the candidates are Biden has high name recognition. He did throughout the primary there's just less and decision, but the third point, which was interesting, is clear at her high still led more in certain key states. Particular in the MID West than Biden dead. So while he has a stronger national led than Clinton over tromp there still alive, that could go in trumps favor,

in various swing states, which underscores that maybe his leave. While strong nationally, isn't that much more durable than Clinton's in summer guards. So what does that mean? I mean why would Biden be doing better nationally, but have smaller margin over tromp in some of the swing states compared with Clinton? Some of that comes down to the fact that less voters are undecided, the sheer and then also the states. Where Biden has these huge margins over Clinton, our states like Texas, Arizona and so those speed, to larger environmental shifts that are happening in those states that we saw with Clinton. She performed better in Arizona than you would have thought going, but it also underscores at these states in the Midwest, even though to be clearer by them, is leading tramp in Ohio in Pennsylvania in Wisconsin.

Still not as large as what Clinton's was at her peak, and some of that could be that you know Paul stirs have redefined, how their due? their methodology since twenty sixteen waiting for education or it could just speak to the resiliency of Trump in these regions. Right, I mean The other thing is, we haven't had a lot of high quality poles in the last week or so, but by lead over time, is shrinking a little bit again. We don't have a lot of high quality poles, but in swing. States Trump is competitive, particularly the ones in the MID West, Jerusalem. Sarah laid out there is that Biden has a higher level of support. Then Clinton ever did even when their margins were somewhat similar biden- has been pulling at fifty percent were higher nationally, whereas even though Clinton may have had a seven

one Slash, two point leaves she was still only in the low to mid forty. She didn't have a majority of support because there were so many undecided voters back then Nate. What do you take that to mean for the state of the race? Doesn't let me do look at that insane is definitely in a better position than content. I think he's. Definitely in it positioning. I mean it's the large because the cautious when you're component, whether you're comparing sees me poles against poles for years earlier or polygons what we knew about, how Clinton's vote action a wound up in twenty, sixteen armor Oh yeah detected a little bit of an electoral college advantage for tromp, meaning nothing was favorite doktor culture that he was benefited from. It relates to the popular vote, but that became more clear of the course election cycle and then was even more pronounced in the actual results than in the polls. So if you compare how Biden doing that, in point states. I was doing nationally it's actually a smaller gap in Clinton.

Based on real results, but its larger thing. It was exercising than it was at this point in the polls for and others can have less awareness of how well trumps coalition might play and the electric car to think among pollsters, because education, waiting and people anchoring to twenty twelve in and other stuff look, Biden is. Doing quite well right, he's up eight point something points or national average right now it's been a pretty stay believe there that many undecided voters there are none serious north Secondly, a western, a few states. Third party can it's running. You know that more polarization now, which means or tend to be fewer swings in the polls. There is the in the room which is called covered a and how that could affect the elect between now and November we haven't had the convention's, yet we don't know the VP pick as yet. We haven't any debates, yet and there's a lot of uncertainty and so to different type of issue,

rights more kind of macro level this year minutes like how sure can you, because we certainly in the past, have seen- let me forget clean in some ways when people talk about twenty sixteen, if I can be kind or on, and they reveal their ignorance a little bit about kind of how the appalling really is there isn't a far greater concern for Biden, then twenty sixteen should be ninety Eighty eight, where Michael Dukakis was ahead by you, know eight point to this point: most election by eight points or other years, where poles fluctuate very wildly two sixteen of the Amazon relatively more polling pulling error because binds Ladys the bit more robust from Quincy could survive. Probably a twenty sixteen style error. But it couldn't survive and I can mediate style mistake. I just gonna think like that. Reason to not be that confident will come out in the motto comes out and buy the because, like its earlier.

Best Paul this can be way off. The final averages in early August know those something's point toward. Narrower ranges of uncertainty. We also have covered in negative thirty whenever percent analyze GDP growth in and the protest and and Donald in present in all these stories that can like cause poles to shift potentially and we're in a very polarize time where, in the You might expect the election to tighten entertain. Election trump probably still has an edge and electoral college, but jumped out at me I did I didn't know- was it. I dont think I realized how far Clinton was from fifty and hell closer above fifty Biden Is- and I think that important gazetted, those idea there were so many undecided voters and there are so few less. It feels to be harder for my vote or to go from Ireland who may be undecided to trump or bite into trumpets, feels like maybe I'm wrong with. It feels like a different process, and I think this is an important one. The second one is like

looking at the where we are right now. Is it because in a violence campaign seems to be they're getting a lot of sort of pressure to go into Georgia going to Texas, it seems, like they kind of announced, we're gonna be in Texas. But then, if you look at the ad by its very small, is like they're gonna flirting with it, and I sort of thing that's where we are a little bit now is like the poles of steady for awhile and one of things I'm looking for is like what does I'd and due to not only win. If you can, and but also to ensure that a democratic sit- and I think that's where we are looking at an eight point leave us is a five point. Leave versatile three point. Leave us the ten point led this kind of what I'm watching sort of the most. Can you drag a senator into Georgia or Iowa or Texas, and I think right now the US. It is yes and if I was like Biden staff be thinking about we win by eight and not five

and so I do know that looks like, but I think there's a big part of we're, we're headed, but isn't that also what Hillary Clinton ended up doing in twenty sixteen and then was pretty widely criticised for it? After the fact she tried to expand the map instead of focusing in the states that she actually needed to win and then didn't win. Michigan was called. You know, you know the story I mean I'm not convinced this idea that she showed up in Wisconsin three more times that I am a little sceptical, some of the items they also the different elections. I mean I don't know exactly. This is not my expertise. Other further others on this But you will see me there's someone of diminishing returns here you can only spent. I mean every dollar in Georgia is not a waste. You didn't. Spinelli was cars and I don't think the math quite well. Their way and so on sure I mean. Also the value of a democratic Senate is

streamline high. Otherwise you know if you obviously shouldn detract from winning the presidency, but I think the valuable work ethic senators really really high, so I dont think that they should dismiss there either in campaigning simply in Pennsylvania and lost at sea. Just like she lost machine was Wisconsin right. Now she should attend. Pay more mission was constantly and we should say nobody is campaigning on the ground much in any of the state's anyway. So I guess we're talking more about resources and advise and things like that, even feet on the ground, not me she should intervene. Mission was Wisconsin and, like you should have adopted a more defences, you know, I guess I guess the issues here are the Senate is what was also played. He's exceed those this notion that, like Biden it's a landslide victory to prevent Trump from de legitimize ENG. The result or even I guess you would have to call it cheat his way to victory right by

impounding Hale ballots or something I mean, I don't know how far to go with the speculation on that stuff right. But another argument that was an employee as much in twenty sixteen, but these Canada raising plenty of money. You don't I mean you can play orphans and defence to it's ridiculous amount of money that these candidates have you doing, coordination returns, and so you know my general advice to the Trump campaign into the vine campaign must also give advice by advice. Both campaigns, like don't pick and choose play a pretty broad map. Now, maybe exceptions are big states Centre or on the fringe right. So Texas is a very expensive investment. You'd better, be sure that, like if your Biden or tromp that you care the symbolism of taxes, I'm not sure that taxes is very often gonna, be the tipping point state as we would call it

Ohio is an interesting one in that its actually polling. Surprisingly, competitively even with vinyl a bit ahead, but Biden suing well enough in the west to win Ohio. Does he need Ohio? Maybe not it's not save as a lot of competitive how seats so, but there are some choices to make their but, like all the rest, states, there's nothing wrong with the term campaign making a play for psycho or devout error, or something like that right were forbidden playing beef in Colorado. All these small or medium sized states are not an expensive to campaign in they got plenty of money. May I want to put this question to you.

Well about how much oscillation we can expect from sat pieces like the conventions or the debates, because we saw a lot of that in two thousand. Sixteen, and obviously we ve seen that binds leader has been pretty study. So I think the question is: do we see more of an oscillation? Do we see Trump start to rise around the time of his convention around the time of the debate that you actually have to think about this and creating the model so argue treating those things differ: this year, because I've maybe the pandemic or lack of undecided voters. Well in general convention doubts have gotten smaller because there our fewer undecided voters there are fewer swing, voters so used to become imbalanced would be twelve points right and it's been. A recent elections were like five points. Three to five point, On average, we also decided in the model to assume there is gonna, be half the usual convention bounce you have, number one abbreviated programming

which made it is a matter as much her like that. Our exude only usually carrying our anyway but like, but CNN and on the internet, people followed commissions in la different ways now so there's less to to watch neighbour, you, it's mostly gonna, be virtual. Not enough right, I mean I've watched enough state of the union responses. I walked enough pandemic basket. And baseball unhappy you to say like it does. Look unusual. Will you not in front of alive audience here? Are not going to have for the most part reporters there and so you'll have coverage on tv. But you're not going to have as many New York Times. Rush impose stories about like kind of what it all means. So I think there is reason to expect that the affected That would be blunted, even though you can have people sitting at home board, also, especially for the republican convention, is now clear that the

these speeches are gonna, be terribly well thought through or staged. You know, I mean Trump Dead Cunningham. The much clarity, unlike individually with their plans, are necessarily and so so yeah ADA. The debates, though I think matters much as they always do. The debates. People will be very intrigue by in and trumpet bidding is an incumbents, an intriguing story and, like you know at least Trump one particular came around. People were like oh trouble, refused to debate apparent from keeping was actually wanting to add A fourth debate and or move up a debate earlier, which I think by the way, is a pretty reasonable argument. If you're having people the early than it might be good to have an early debate, but the council presented the Bates the commission or council anyway, the ruling authority. He said now we're gonna keep schedule as it is, but the debates I think could be Superman, sure the convention's, though I dunno police unit, Thirty, eight for all our coverage of the really exciting. Evidence party

yeah, I think we're going to have its daily pod gas during the convention's daily love books. Dan Daily, live logs as well in wrapping up here. One way that the chattering classes look at campaigns is like. Have you been able to define your opponent and oftentimes the stories of the the losers of past campaigns are told through the lens of well. Hillary Clinton got defined in this way or Mitt Romney got defined this way and was stuck in that position and really couldn't get out of it. Now I dont know if that's actually how campaigns work. My assumption is that it's, it's not perfectly reflective actually of how campaigns work, but I guess educate me: does your ability to define your opponent matter and, along its

Wine has trump simply not been able to define Joe Biden in the way opponents of past presidential candidates have been able to. It is early yeah, but I think with the corona virus. It's just a lot harder to have the campaign events, especially for a candidate like Trump who thrives on the input rally, but then he's tried to make the sleepy Joe Monaker work, but he's been less successful in his attempts to say by it in this part of the radical left right. He points to his favorite punch bags in the House and Senate in terms of a cause, Cortez or Nancy Policy, but it doesn't seem to have the same residence with someone like Biden because part of bite ends. Whole political career has been working with the other side

I'll write. He was called them, Conall whisper. I think what sums it up really well is now for the first night of the convention, you're gonna, former republican candidate and twenty sixteen cases Bernie Sanders herein, you know, and twenty sixteen and twenty twenty Harrigan Spiten and Michelle Obama our former. Firstly, all on one night kind of talking about the future of the Democratic Party, I think Biden looks at himself as the candidate who can use, while these different factions right and then for Trump, who needs to have some way to punch Biden down in turn like an opponent, it just hasn't been a successful as with Clinton he could point to. Her emails, the scandals there look, you know it's not October, yet there could be a surprise, but I think to your point: if part of an election is defining your opponent, it's been really hard for trumped. Do that successfully with Biden? Do your order,

yeah I mean I would well. I would say that somebody campaign offers of, like you defined opponents, this limit silly, but I do think it is helpful. Tromp was viewed unfavourably, but he managed to make sure Clinton was also viewed unfavourably in twenty six you know they both by the and have very high negative Solana. Voters like like both these people out of the president, the new person drop versus. So I do think the next three months. I think with them. Protest not being over. The media is much not happening as much, maybe Cove it is not being covered as much as it was perhaps in MID April or may I do think in the deep, Think Trump has three months to now. Try to drive up the negatives abide in the deep candidate by them to liberal by saying there dishonest, by saying that you know the real President, the real president will be whoever Biden Pixel. I do think there is a potential for trump be successful, and I just because by this

Well so far, when I, Are you a lot of you are not engage in the campaign, voters wise I don't I wouldn't rule out from being more successful in the in defining by and in driving, binds negatives up in the next three months. I think it is entirely possible that it can do its possible. I think Biden, China ran as a candid to prevent that re? Brighton kind of ran is like I'm, a generic democratic knees and he's why me the man and his straight and those things I think make it harder to it. Define a member to killer ways right, he's Catholic, which actually bit unusual He is kind of in the middle of his party, so yeah do not mean, I think, like the binding, just Trojan horse for a sea and policy. I think that can maybe we're a certain element of trumps base, I'm not

really persuade swing. Voters that much trump will have the opportunity to make some type of a sustained, coherent argument right. I wonder if it won't mind being about protests, Sir rallies, after all a let me be less euphemistic right, you know you see now scenes in two cities so Portland in Chicago, where you had more violent uprising special Chicago overnight. I wonder if Trump, maybe unsuccessfully might try to resuscitate that thing. Which I'm sure feeds a lot of us natural impulses toward more authoritarian thinking. I don't know I'm not I'm not confident that they're gonna be to say anything. New about Biden isn't kind of already priced in to have others are thinking, because it is one question I have here. It is early is the and was a hit by about ten in the average of poles around July. Second he's a hit by about each now is that these.

Real. Is that not real, because if you know of drunken gained two points in a month, while Hating somewhat normally it is normal. Erratic behaviour may be, can gain two points next month. It six, I mean Isaac, as I do think the protests within their motion, hence moments and the way Trop Reexamine were Harding home and I dont think death factor will be around again, so I do wonder if Trump is going to come, is in the is that a small come back, but I'd be curious. What you guys they tend aid is not nothing but it not just think about you know, look I think when people were sympathetic, After George fly to the cause, clothes matter right and in ways that we're pretty robust, given that people have mixed feelings about that movement before right,. And you so it was a notion that, like.

I do not mean a member kind of covering as a newsroom. It felt like there are these two big stories covered and the protest and that trumpet Somehow, on the wrong side of both of them right now, if you like, there's one big story: it's covert after all, right many them, maybe even more on the wrong side of that. His approval ratings on his handling of her would have continued worsen, but it doesn't feel like there are multiple fronts as much as that. Might that might help him little bit and a kind of opens a question of light. Does he want to like resuscitate the protests? the theme or not, would it be wise for him to do so you know it also gets a little bit tour. VP segment. We talked about earlier right where you know that or by ensues pick a woman. There is no particular invitation to be a black woman than you had the protest

The major story right and now within fading little bit, then maybe they're floating, maybe could be Gretchen Gretchen after all, who is more known for covered being the major issue? So you're not Perry, think I think it it's plausible. Why trumps closed a bit could also be kind of noise in the polls, whatever else, but We haven't gotten a lot of high quality. Recent polling is August downtime for pollsters

I think what happens. Is poles want to take a before and after snapshot with respect to the convention's right or if they can't don't afford both before and after the wait until after see, my guess is you'll have some big national poles from me out late, the sweet pre convention and then another round after the conventions, but it creates a drought kind for the past week or two. While, let's leave it there, we will see what happens or paint unite. Thank you. Thank you, Sir thinks gown and thank you bury let's go. My name is Galen droop Tony chow. Isn't a virtual control room you can get in touch by e mailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us

questions or comments. If you're a friend of the show, leave us a reading or review in the apple pie, cast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and will cease