Can't you get a haircut, oh, my god. Are you accusing me of breaking the law I will never leave you work at home or with the medical, while Galen yourself done. Haircut is really really good. Fellow and welcome to the factory in politics. Podcast, I'm Galen, droop public opinion on the black lives matter, movement and racism in America. More broadly- has moved dramatically over the past three weeks. In fact, support for black lives matter grew as much in two weeks as it did during the entire past two years. So today we're gonna take stock of the various ways. Public opinion has shifted and look at how politicians are respond,

also, as businesses reopen and protestors continue to gather around the country will ask whether we are seeing a second wave of the corona virus and what the political implications could be, and you want me to do that. Our editor in chief needs over headache. Hey everybody else here of us is sooner politics, rider clam alone Heckler, began an senior politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry do so. We are going to get to everything that I just mentioned, but first by popular demand, we're gonna ask one of our favorite questions, which is good use of coal or bad use of pulling listeners may have already heard about this about I'll, just run through it. In case you haven't CNN, published a pole last Monday, showing former Vice President Biden leading President Trump by fourteen percentage points nationally trumps re election campaign. Then wrote to CNN asking for the network to retract and apologize

the poor. They wrote. The pole is quote designed to mislead american voters through biased questionnaire and skewed sampling, and they went on to say quote: it's a stunt and a phoney Paul to cause of voters stifle momentum and enthusiasm for the president and presented a false view generally of the actual support across Amerika for the president. End quote so as far as our accusation of skewing goes, they take issue with the fact that only twenty five percent of the poles respondents were Republicans Nate. Let's start with you, is this a good use of pulling or a bad use of pulling the Trumpery election campaign- words of its both the baddies, appalling ended bad faith are We can have debated, how much engaged or does it by thirty eight because, like weeds, I really don't believe in research being too both with arguments that operate on the pretence that, like it's, not snapples but like this category two unscrewing in twenty twelve, where the theory is that ok,

a party should have a certain fix, set. A party identification, so expert on the electorate is republican experts and independent experts sent as democratic. There are a couple of issues with that, one of which is that can change over time if you feel frustrated with the Republican responds to corona virus, for example, or the protests. Then maybe you say now: I'm actually an independent, so twenty things you're trying to serve the people what their political identity is. That's one issue, I can issues there's a lot of kind of apples to order, comparisons? Some Poles wills Ok, you have to picking the democratic looking into samples will allow you say other samples last. What you daddy is by the way what Europe situation is what your daddy is things right can be registered Republican, who identifies as a Democrat Register A new identifies any but always know its democratic, and things like that raised. So there are different apples, oranges, comparisons that people are making, so It's just that really the kind of argument that I think people who

appalling that much take seriously. It is true that fourteen point is a big lead in fourteen months is a big led, then beggarly than other polls show. We are pulling averages coming out this week. Spoiler alert, and that shows on average binding with apparently right so shown by fourteen- that's a big led for sure. But if you can studies. Suppose for what you're gonna get some some outliers and usually there isn't need to like asked for a ology or allege a conspiracy pair. And Clare. I'm curious what you thought about how the Trumpery election campaign when about this right is not just a use of pulling their asking for an apology from CNN and for them to actually retract the pole. I mean that's it, asking for an apology- is just it just away to elicit in future media appearances, or why has press briefing of the idea that CNN has still not apologise for this Paul blah blah blah,

We all know this by now that the Trump campaign is using in part folder animists in a republican base, the media as a strategy that kind of get people angry about everything. Angers agreed. Later in elections. We should be very honest about that. So it's a rhetorical ploy. You know, I think I think make kind of dissembled the actual substance of it So I guess I would say two things I guess the first is this is I think this is like now. I'll, be back in a certain way. Chum pursued resources when Eve on roads are learning about him tightly Aspasia Retract, the Paul not just criticise it, preserves deadly an authoritarian element how he handles these press disputes that, I think, is problematic in compare the jobless, Sir George Bush Romney, or urge our John Mccain Brok. Obama origin by the second

is, though I do worry. That's when you haven't outlier pole like this. There is some sort of science evidence that people tinder tweet those more than in the red, those whether they get more attention they otherwise would again I'm looking pulling average and in the view of the poles of the villages, have been done better ten there is a ban, was fourteen Biden, eleven bite and nine by the thirteen by an eleven by an eight sisera, so I saw some of the tweets Sienna reporter sent out and they were very possessing the the fourteen and not saying this is kind of irish. I do worried bit. Every news opposition has an incentive to hide their own pole, but I dont think that is good for so the audience who is not normally like, I dont, think downturns by fourteen a lot of fourteen last week either and I do worried that we don't do as a media.

Java saying this as a pole, this is big news and its buzzy, because it shows him down fourteen, but we're not really sure that's the most accurate betrayal of the electorate right now right there. There's not a lot of literate writing a round holes which is basically like, don't write a story based around the single Oh, but if you're renewed organization is putting out the Paul, you probably get props from the boss when you tweet out the pole with like the sirens and bodily parent, you know to go back to your your point about it being a deeper issue. Like I'm up this authoritarian instinct, I use them. That's right! unlike as we saw some stuff about, like the media's lying or like they're lying to you about the actual support behind Trump mean a lot of stuff. More darkly plays into the idea, nothing that term budget before the twenty. Sixteen election, which was so in doubt about the results of the future results of the election right. He was basically laying the base for there not counting your vote votes. There are purposely obscuring things, and so it it does play

to the conspiratorial instincts of a certain number of people in the country. I mean, I'm not sure it's even smart. Tactically, you know one thing: from campaign. I think I did a good job of in TWAIN. Sixteen is because, like They didn't really trust the mainstream media anyway. They actually didn't get in a lot of these disputes polling and send you out there memos that most campaigns can't seem to resist right. I think I'm uh ceramics campaigns actually look good, often forced the campaigns in turn. Alters to take a public stand when they should be giving honest advice to their candidates. It s not clear like hey. If one Canada has a big lead, there are competing theories, One theory says created: bandwagon effects are therefore. Oh, I see bite over binding events. Just the opposite says: okay well makes you complacent, and so the by but don't turn out. I think for you here in sum which affect, prevails, really ambiguous and not very persuasive. A new direction, but it's not very clearly from campaign, wouldn't be better off saying the mediators says a huge underdog and we'll show them

November third, that was kind of more their attitude and when succeed in that seem to work fairly well, Claire, maybe you're right that, like you, can imagine a world in which bind wins and trumpets alleging fraud or something shenanigans and people say well by one or more robust evidence. That kind of this is that people really felt there wasn't anything untoward that, when most evidence? That kind of this is that people really felt there wasn't anything untoward that went on, so they have to discredit the poles to right. I'm not sure if it's that elaborate, I mean. I think one of the disincentives for any one kind of trumps orbit is that Trump apparently through a lot of reporting gets very. Noise when you kind of give him back pulling results. Rights could be people trying to curry favour with Trump right you critter with Trump and you kind of bash CNN. You can are killing two birds with one stone in that way, but I think it actually help tromp and in general I think Poland, people for campaigns

not having public profile should not engage in any type of interpretation or spin, though, to democratic it true that are also both from a particular kind of spending to the candidate and of the public. That can get you down, eddies that I think are often not very constructive if you actually want Donald Trump to be re elected or so I think we can say that this is a. Bad use of polling and perhaps not a good faith argument and give those stamps for both. I guess sometimes you can have a good faith argument, but does not do the pulling analysis, particularly well. So, let's move on and talk about, recent shifts in public opinion on racism I mentioned at the top of the show that support for black lives matter had increased in two weeks. The same amount that increased in the previous two

ears. So beyond that big shaft and a whole bunch of other pulling that's going on that illuminating? How Americans are thinking about this so Perry? How would you describe Americans view currently with the reckoning with police, violence and racism? So I there's a big shift going on with everyone in terms of how they view the police and how the police treat black people specifically. So most people of all parties think that what happened the George Floyd was terrible may disagree with any of the officers fired and beyond their which are seeing in the polls is a plurality,

if not a majority of Republicans and allow the poles, are saying that there is a broader problem with how the police conduct themselves regarding black people, and maybe there there is some kind of racial, discriminatory issue in terms of policing so using deaths, among Republicans and in those views are already shared by most black people, and then those numbers have gotten from like eighty two like nineties, they were already shared by most democratic. Those numbers are again getting very high and pretty close. So all Democrats meeting like wine Latino Democrats, an increasing degree with black Democrats and all those people see

overwhelming evidence of police biasing, its black people. Now so that's on policing, you saw the universal changes now, in terms of when you ask other kinds of questions, then you get more division. When you ask any questions about how much racism there is an american kind of more broadly, you find, a put you find, is a big, partisan. Gabbett. Beware Republicans generally say that there is not nearly as much discrimination and other sectors of life outside a policing. While democrats say there is a lot and the democratic members are pretty unified, but across races and the republican numbers are pretty unified as well and the third thing I've seen you get to question, does not questioning get you later, but there's a lot of division among questions we get to like taking nuggets

Romania's or you get to define the police so that when you get a specific policies, then I think that unifies the unity breaks down even among Democrats on some level. Yet when we look at pulling on all kinds of cultural issues more broadly, how notable is the shift for support of black eyes matter and just people saying that there is real, in how the police conduct themselves. I mean it's a pretty notable shift its pretty unusual to have policies, a dime that much there are comparisons to views on gun, violence after parkland, for example, so If you're an American that thinks a shift is welcome, then it will be a cautionary tale that something happens: people kind of persuaded that the kind of things fade after a couple of months. I think one thing that Harry said is actually may be important, though, which is like

in some ways. It's easier for underlying opinion to shift if there not necessarily like a particular policy Coastal on the table. Although there is talk about, funding the police- and there is talk about what defending the police actually means. But the fact that, like people can be we agree with the sentiment that black lives matter is They understand now what that means, and eight understand how that can be empowering an idea, they support right and they understand that there are huge problems in police. Toward minority communities and maybe policing in general. It is also in addition to being fairly sweeping, is also fairly broad, based Are you really going to see this among there's a shift among most every ethnic group in almost every party you know so now this is not is not normal. Horses on normal times. You know we have had a very strange few months as it can, Maybe that kind of maybe makes people more willing to like reset their priors.

Bed and reexamined things, I must say I had four context who is like Trump is not very popular and so oh taking a stance, racism and a lot of american see present Trump as being racist. If you ask them so taking us racism can also be a way to kind of say you know it, president, transparently, certain parts of President Trump are things that I do not stand behind. Yet no idea that I think very tough this he was running through the number, but the idea of defending the police and, furthermore, specific policy ideas that three really start to get into bed. What kind of being right, I don't know, I mean answer to thinking of defined. The police is like that

to abolish ice, which is that its rhetorically too strong for a lot of Americans. But it's it's. The product of activists who are kind of trying to pitifully say like this is like our policy platform. In one phrase, you're gonna see a lot of politicians who you know a lot of their job is to kind of complicate those things and to make proposals more palatable to more people. So it's inevitably gonna water things down, but I think that the turning tied against police broadly is sort of interesting and We talked about this a little with SAM August two weeks ago, when we were looking at citizen deaths at the hands of the hands of police in America, and it was interesting from the data to note that citizen deaths in the hands of police and I've been purposely that can encompass both, shootings, but also Freddy Gray right in the vat rate. Don't really know what happened. Those have gone down in big cities, but have gone up in

suburban and rural areas, and they ve got they ve gone up fur in a white people, in those areas to so. There is this kind of broad I think american displeasure with the police. Are we see there huge racial elements to all of this, but I think a lot of Americans just don't like tops. I think like no other way to put it, decides that but but recognise the need for a lot of people in the country to feel like. There's someone policing society, so it's Lincoln into his counter, really sticky thing of like maybe not sticky. You just have to have conversations them. I like. Well, maybe we should move away from the fund, the police and be specific about what we are actually talking about Perry. What does the polling look like when we get to the specifics of deferring the police

something like that. So we look at some numbers. There was a great list of questions. What he's policing ideas Dunbar imposed with them, aerial and resilience? I think they did s request, and so do you support defending the police, twenty seven percent support fifty seven percent oppose so that's not popular banning police officers from using chokehold syn. Percent oppose who are those people? Seventy percent support a fit all the street for complaints against police officers. Seventy percent oppose seventy percent support, making it easy for the federal government to charge officers for excessive force, sixty eight support. Twenty one oppose limit the transfer of military equipment to police departments, forty six support, thirty six oppose and in budgeting s money for your local police department and more for social services, for instance. Social workers and mental health professionals. Forty four support forty one approach:

So that's kind of a narrow issue. So the come about the conversation, then of like I've, got to see some languages annoying, but it's like I wish the conversation were more nuanced because they were we're, just gonna have a national debate about, should we defined the police and sometimes as the conversations I just want to make you like scream, because it's like the warrant or talking about semantics are not actual things which, as parodist reel off Americans have thought. How center of the discussions on I don't know. I mean we're on own bubbles. I guess write to me. It feels like are people saying be found? The police, unmeaning arrayed in things by an amateur campaign, is pushing this. I dont know that the average American necessarily sees the protesters backing their goal of people by and large seem pretty sympathetic with the protests.

And so I am not sure if that narrative is breaking through or not yeah, I mean it s kind of seems like Obamacare, almost where you pull specific provisions and you find support, but the branding has just bad or just doesn't get support. What do we know about how those issues break down like is defined the police? Enough of kind of agitating idea that Trump can use it to his advantage, or are people more focused on all that

Parry mentioned that the majority of american support I mean, is worth noting, as is obvious, but worth noting Joe Biden. Nancy policy are not talking about defining the police, so what are you doing craft say and what the activists say are entirely different. Conversations right now, like as a democratic, build at the writing in Congress and Bill is about banning chokehold and adding registries in it has like five of these things I listed were two thirds of people support, so Joe Biden was asked whether they said deepen the police. You said no immediately, so I do think that desert so the trunk campaigns challenge of some level, two graft onto Joe Biden views he actually does not hold. He might do but I think this is really a challenging thing. I do think in the in the cities and the states where, like in a most policing, is written at the sea level, not the state or federal level. I do think you're, seeing so amount of like, if not quite defending their heads some cities that have already said we're not going to increase funding, we're gonna change, our funding formula, we're gonna, get please help

out of our schools? So that's gonna be defending a sort of actually dumping de funding. You know I hate this, I'm weary of the Overton Window concept and I think it can be ever done and silly times, but I do think in this particular instance. The defining conversation has created some debate about what is police supposed to be like an American. I do think that people's views are evolving on some of those questions. Yet what I was going to say is like a chump campaign is not I mean Joe Biden is gonna, come out and start talking about this stuff on the campaign and help develop something probably along the lines of leading the national ban on show called. We need the national ban on. You know one other policy and it will become part of his stump and will use it. I think, probably as a way to say wow. I thought I was a person, a white person who is crusade for reform. I didn't know anything and ITALY

as vital to be part of the mainstream of american public opinion, but also from a machiavellian point of view and allowed by the have a little bit of a rehash of his image, which was basically like hey. This guy was the architect of the the crime bill which put a lot of black men imprison. So it does also offer Biden crossly a political redemption story if you, if he swings it from defined the police to a conversation around the police in America out of control. Joe Biden has these specific plans to curb them that sound, reasonable Do the moderates. You know who who are alien needed by trumps rhetoric, so he him so using. He himself is trying to identify as one of those white voters who, over the past three weeks, has changed their appeal, and started to say that racism is more prevalent in America than I previously realized any. Basically, it's it's

it actually, not. Basically only read you a quote from Joe Biden in a political story I thought it made enormous progress. We finally elected an african american president. He told voters and alive streamed young Americans, town Hall S. We I thought you could defeat hate, you can kill hate, but the point is you: can and then days earlier bite and said he thinks others are experiencing a similar awakening to their own wilful naive, a day, ordinary folks who don't think of themselves having a prejudice bone in their body, dont. Think of them. The others. Races have kind of at their mask pulled off. Guys like this is the guy who, a couple of weeks ago, gotten trouble was Charlemagne, the God, because he was like you, ain't black. If you're, not loading for me over Trump, I mean it's almost as if, from the Heavens, He was given this gift of, like you, can kind of get em all again you're, really,

Canada, on the lines talk about race that really clumsy to a lot of younger voters, strictly younger black voters, and you can kind of say like yes, I am part of me Reno the continued of white people that is awakened- and I didn't know I was like completely in the dark about all this stuff. I think it's it's kind of this again. This is class, but it's like a bit like a pretty big saving, grace forbidden in some way, and it happened really quickly. He's had like a really awkward year, long struggle with certain voters in the Democratic Party to prove to them. That he's like the right person for this time with a lot of Americans are kind of a week into the the racism. It has been in the political system for a really long time, because trunk kind of makes subtext text any trumps. First, rallies and Tulsa on June team, which is a sight of you, know this infamous killing of black.

Maybe she brought they postponed it by a day now, but yes, originally, it was scheduled for June to India. I mean sorry that this is just a sidebar, but I put this in our slack Tina and gasped. When I saw that I mean that's, like pretty strong symbolism the norm in the question of whether Abraham, in President could exploit this and the question whether Trump will successfully exploit. This are two different questions, because trumps has very credibility around issues related to race relations. It's like, the worst issue we asked. How does handle this issue. It is worse issue and has been even before George Floyd. His sleep. Political strategy is often very very clumsy and like by nothing, can kind of almost oh here is older, average is kind of guy. Who, who can be little comes? around things right and is perfectly correct, but there's a good heart Bob law. I think you can kind of police

off, whereas I trumpet just don't really trust her measures related to raise, for, I think, that's a pretty valid reasons, and it's like it. Very hard for him to have any strategy, apart from like just hoping at other issues, become more sale? Aunt em, he might even prefer covered. It is, I don't know what you're talking about covering a bit actually not sure about that the combination of covered- and caution about race in Amerika, around police violence and largely peaceful protest at this point is like kind of the worst possible combination of issues for four trump. As Trump has said, that, for example, he doesn't want the name is of military bases, changed from honouring confederate generals, etc are even though the military seemed open to it. We have also seen from people like Mitch, Mcconnell being like. You know, this is

time that we need to pay attention to what these protesters are saying. Is the Republican Party Writ large more in line with trumps vision of Dante down the statues? Don't we name things, and I dont know what Metro Connell's position on those things is but like or is it more like yeah? This is a moment that we should rethink some of these things. You others, a republican effort in congress right now to find some kind of build taken right, this kind of a police reform bill it would, I think it is. They are disgusting, like banning chill calls for answers themselves. Tim Scott is heavily involved in writing that bill, so I do think republican fully aware, does anew Scutcheon happening here in Kentucky Cook Republican supported an effort that happened over the weekend to remove Jefferson, Davis statue from the state Capitol in Kentucky those of Boredom Capitol Hill to change the names of some kind of some bases that have the names a confederate generals on the right now is Europe's Moroccans voted for that. So I do think it

Space and also tromp himself, has said what up with George Floyd itself was terrible. So I do that. This is naturally a totally partisan issue. I think Republicans are trying to find new putting here, trying to signal of data like what's up with some of the police, either their open. The changes also means racial issues as well, so I do think they're trying to find their footing and in some ways the Republicans on the hill are doing a better job, I think than Trop weight, but Trot said yes, we're having to George Floyd Wise, bad and his family should see justice etc, but on a lot of other things, give more pushed back against some of the things that Republicans have been fine with, like you know, maybe changing the names of military bases and so on. Like I asked us alive, maybe this is a dumb question at this point: is there a strategy behind us, or is this just like a closely held belief?

I think he is more responsive to certain elements of what he thinks of ass, his based even gonna Trump rallies and you gotta trump rallies and there's a there is a contingent of police officers. Like that's a pretty strong thing. The military trunk does see his base, as kind of being, like law keepers right go what because he is the law and order candidate to use. He is for people who keep arson

in order literally, the confederate statue. Stuff is like to be a pretty like. I don't think Trump has a super, deep understanding of the roots of the southern strategy, but I think he has picked up on the conventional wisdom of the Republican Party for the past few decades. That sort of says, there's a base in the south that you should keep happy, and so he knows that for a lot of those people, there are strong feelings about confederate history and he kind of instinctively has reactions to those things I mean. Trunk has picked up a lot of backing the conventional wisdom of the party as its developed over the past few decades, without thinking all that much about the potential electoral implications in twenty twenty. I e at a time when a lot of american seem to have a problem with his over racism and the racism of certain elements of society. I e the police and therefore he is

alienating electoral, perhaps more people than he is exciting in his base? I think the more that this gets into issues that are kind of on the periphery of the story and not about police violence and racism in the protest and the more likely it is that people who are now extreme. Partisans will out and therefore you can we're typical partisan response right, like Guenaud confederate statues. The scene sounds like something which private average person who saw the My video and hissing. The protests won't have a struggle, about as the police violence themselves. Right are itself, so I mean it one way. That kind of stories- eventually work their way out of the new cycle is eventually people have expressed their opinions talked about things and reports have covered story. From different angles and a kind of spends. Often too

day controversies and next next day controversies of men, those kind of become less impact, full yeah. I mean to back you up on this name in terms of how public opinion has moved once you get outside of the core issues. Looking at the half posts polling with Aerial Edwards, Libya's Perry mentioned earlier, they asked about opposition:

removing confederate statues and in two thousand seventeen forty nine percent of people were opposed, and in June twenty twenty forty nine percent of people were opposed so like actually nothing has changed on the issue of removing confederate statues, even as we see in some of these big shifts elsewhere and when it comes to the confederate flag. In two thousand seventeen forty seven percent disapprove in June twenty twenty fifty one percent disapproves of only even for points of a shift on the confederate flag. I guess I want to cut a rap things up here. We ve been talking about this in general, but to ask directly like how do all of these changes in opinion affect the twenty twenty general election? Do these changes broke

back to the mean by November, or is this like a real reckoning moment? That's durable for four and a half months I dont know I mean that the prior is probably that there is some degree of meaner version. If you do look at something like gun violence, There is also a kind of ok here, because I think, actually, frankly, like your priors are important right. You know one story tell myself about gay marriage, for example, say. Actually this is a case where. They're kind of is a right side of the argument and so overtime no you ve raised I'd, be allowed to get married. I think disclose political can ya! Think gay people should be allowed to get married. Should they be allowed to knock you're fired from their jobs for being here, and I think that I also think that police have JAG normal problems with racism right, I think it's good that, like you know, that were shining more of a line on that? just landed all out and their ape like, but I mean you think there might be some debates where, like just kind of one

side actually kind of has is more morally persuasive, not to every last person, not that things can get complicated right, but, like I don't know, I mean this gets really could wear it. I was gun violence in that category. Two, at an hour to me, it's a little bit more located and usually issues that are plainly about kind of like discrimination right and also the fact that, like look, I'm impressed, like very aware of my kind of cherry picking evidence will you can have twitter threads with, like hundred or three hundred examples of police attacking, brutally just during these protests and not a black people by the way, often people to write like that's? Not those are two hundred isn't isolate incidents anymore, you know anything Timing are the world's eyes are on them. I mean, I think social media is important and kind of working people to some of this stuff. So I think I'll be me. I think there are various ways in which they can be like a broader sure or political, more than cultural backlash Democrats trying to centre racism,

I'm rotation I do set about like George Flight and police particular, is something that might that might stack their current airports or take her side three thoughts. Ok in terms of the who is going to win the election question, I tend to think virtue, the mean, but the one thing they did happen in this month in this period was you had more than the gym mattresses? The leads him. A cask ease, the bushes, the Romney's. You had more of these like Trump handled this, so poorly and what happened was so important. I think allies will we're looking for a place to say I don't want to see a second term for Trump, and this was the place for them, and I do think that might have some marginal impact electoral early, like if you, if you lose enough, even the Atlanta suburbs of the Dallas, covers the uses of herbs that is either Rina. Whatever suburbs, that is a problem with the one place right, think Biden might, if truck its eighty. Six of the republican vote is that of ninety percent, that

Turley matters so that the first thing the second thing is in terms of how the Democrats campaign it is like we're gonna have Joe Biden, talk more about police brutality ratio in it, The end issues like that before I would argue that Camelot, Harris's chances of being vice president, probably gone up and Amy closer iciest, probably gone down as a debt itself is a as an important effect, What's happened. Last mother, maybe I'm wrong about that, but I think that this model right now in the heart of a gimmick, low Bashar, AL easier to pick somebody's black yeah. The one last thing is, I think, Perry need above spoken very well, I'm like what the effect of this will be, but just to go to like electoral ramifications

I do think this. This election will be a lot about race and about crisis and the fact that Trump is perceived broadly and specifically in this crisis as being racist, isn't electoral problem for him I mean you know, Reagan went to pains to like appear before the UN, W C p so that he wouldn't seem races to like white

bourbon, independent voters? Trunk doesn't do that kind of stuff, really he's not going out of his way to sort of provide white voters who might be on the line about him kind of like this cover that, like see he's not a racist trumped, doesn't really do that he plays into it, which I think could be bad elect orally. You know that makes people think like yanks too. I really want to go for racist. So that's my that's. My last thought about like what this night outta, the twenty twenty election there no votes and restoring to think about like talking about racism and opposing racism, isn't just about getting the block vote for historically republican candidates. It also about suburban whites. I mean I have got to the point it alright, let's raft things up by looking at the latest trends in Corona virus data show. Looking at the past couple weeks. We see that in states like Arizona, Utah taxes and Florida there's been an increase.

In infections and there's been some debate about whether we are seeing a second wave- and I know now that you have thought about this- so are we experiencing a second wave of the corona virus pandemic? No were in the first wave. Is the short answer, yeah, so look couple. Things are important places where cases are increasing, tend to be play where they actually were not hit that hard initially despite a lot of focus on the south, in particular from commentators the south. I have very high overall rates of induction back in March and aid author to North EAST and some parts, the Midwest so You're not sing waves in the south in the South West on the West Coast even in some states that are very isolated rural, that were kind of avoiding the first time around, and there are a couple of reasons why that my The case right number one is that if you dont know people in our community, our getting sick. Then

You might be less cautious about individuals and governments may be less cautious ripe number two. Who is there? Are some factors related factor? York, where it missed made twenty five or something percent population already had corona virus. According to various sorority tasks in various fiscal estimates that actually makes a fair amount of difference, it's not enough to prevent spread on its own according to most estimates, but like if one, every four people that you would pass it. You are at least for the time being. Is we're not sure how long this lasts immune that can damp and spread a fair bit of Europe I swear it. Can anyone acceptable then? These concern to spread more fast, like I did in March in some places, So no it's kind of these posts are experiencing a first wave Experience in a first women are still cresting. More may be was a plateau and has now started a tip back up a little bit again

You are not seeing the huge, very rapid grow, if you hadn't New York or something or case or double every couple of days, it's more gradual but like, but the key very we ve talked about before is called are so we caught are not our effective, our t eat out there. Are it doesn't matter ramshackle, If that is above one, that means cases are growing right, the New York city, are, was by various routine, we're from like two and a half, maybe up to three after four at the peak, its growing, very fast ripe in Arizona. I know what be one point two. So it's like it's not growing areas. Faceted New York, the problem is that one plenty means like you're increasing by twenty percent roughly every five days, the increase of twenty percent every five days and you most whatever a few weeks. You don't have conditions to control the spread and have become the problem after after a few weeks, so yeah, it's bad news. It's not us wave and I think people who called a second wave or kind of not actually looking at the data fur?

kind of what is actually happening in these places and where its happening. What does this mean? While this is an epidemiological question that we might not necessarily try to answer it? Also critical question. I think, earlier on, in this pandemic there was a pretty clear, partisan divide. Democrats were more adamant about reducing risk. Republicans were less adamant. You know now you see thousands of largely left, leaning protesters gathering in large groups. You also see liberal city is starting to open up and people out in the street, in crowds without mass on drinking, and so if this was happening in Texas and forty in Utah at their work, these big liberal cities with crowds and then you might see Democrats arguing that this is unsafe. This is dangerous. You need a shot back down, etc, like where are the dividing lines. Now, what are the

The core arguments that get made it orders. I want just ignore this so part of the issue. From my point of view, this is looking at the numbers going up in some of these places is the we sort of no we're not gonna have shut down to get like the shut down. We here, which I think in some places, probably worked to reduce the spray, and I think, the political consensus for that is over now. So I don't think we can have those the kind of most dramatic action is no longer in the policy menu. I think does for a variety of reasons, and I think that by partisan on some level, so in that sense I am worried about the spread because of their reason alone and also a partisan elements are like me, republican governors, that we get done do see. Rhonda Santa's, Brian Camp and Donald Trump to stay up in like where mass all the time and do a mask are good press conference. That would be useful, even if they did not necessarily shut the businesses. That again, I don't think you're gonna do that either and that's kind of where I the worry is that I wonder what kind of public

However, having more spread, I wonder what our public policy options realistically are to stop it, that we can all agree upon deck in work a realistic and I'm wondering if that list of options in April and May was very short with very high and now is fairly low yeah I mean because now the public health experts there basically warning against the It happens in every single american news story, which is fatigue, and so it becomes you. People the normalization of eight hundred two thousand deaths the day in America from this disease. I think, ultimately, this becomes an economic conversation towards the end of the summer, beginning of the fall, which is basically like ie hottest time. The general election campaign. You know you're gonna, see, there's people predicting Interdiction crisis were in a recession, theirs, I think

but there is an interesting thing where the protests have provided this. This kind of sheen of it stability for liberals to go out and be in the world? old and kind of almost assuage their guilt. At being, being in the mainstream of like Corona Virus Quarantine fatigue. I think everyone, the country feels that, but I think the public, the public health conversation that side of things, the disparities in death and what communities are hit hardest, blacken latina communities, that's kind of lost now into me from political. Have you it's almost become just an economic recovery story, which I think is disturbing. I think, swimming is lacking as like, there's a little bit of a lot of a lack of kind of consensus over like what even p- are supposed to do back in March: there is consensus of kind of health policy experts like we

to shut down for a period of time were kind of figure out. What comes next right, unlike and now just like. I don't think, there's like any kind of coherent strategy from anybody. Frankly, I think one of the things that kind of doesn't get express enough is out like sure you can keep doing a locked down. When you with the lockdown, then maybe have cases go up, maybe not maybe they're enough conditions and players. I wish there were kind of more people who were like aggressive mask brows right and my girls right who are like you know what we can go party with our masks on. You know domain but, like I mean the surgeon general today like going to really reinforcing idiot like actually it seems like him, I don't know, too much in today's over the protests, probably too easy to see if they can hear the protest in the daytime, but like black. Actually, if we're doing things with mask on and then we can get kind of back to more of a state, normal, and so I kind of really wish that, like people who are pro ending,

downs were also very kind of vocally pro mask you mean like mask for mask. Is that what you're talking about when you say, mask Brown no they're, like a man, what's gonna parting, with masks on its risk. Tolerance that, based on almost like people's own personality, is not their poet. Persuasion meeting. I might have a different tolerance for risk from Perry or from Galen, and therefore feel differently about reopening and there's kind of this weird retrofitting of like are used for or against such and such a policy based on political party, which to me seems wholly inadequate because it really about like personal fear, frankly of death, which I think like manifests itself differently in different people, regardless of how feel politically yeah. I think I think it's about kind of revealed preference verses. What someone may sensibly say in in a right and I think what motivates people like your Sinclair's, like people, will

stay home to the extent that they feel they are taking a personal risk that ways to benefit and whatever activity they want to engage in right. People will not for very long. Stay home as a result of altruism meaning. I can go out and unhealthy or get sick, but if I do I can increase spread my community. I think the face people stay home because of altruism is probably over, and I think that is in part because It's not a very united country right now can kind of a now. Both sides sorties. That phrase do have enough examples kind of blame and point toward hypocrisy and say no, it's it's your fault right, and so, but none of that is good for people behaving altruistically. And kind of when you start to make it a risk assessment and people began to say. Ok, I'm wearing my risk right. There is a warning. Thousand chance and if I get on a plane, the corona virus, but nothing you back and spread to other people on that plane or whatever else people I land but like. I think the outrages

this kind of its own and that's kind of what makes the discourse and even more like raw than it was before so Actually I pull about this. Two percent of Americans went to these protests. According to axioms Poland's, let me than most people. We won't load of political and did not go in fact that the vast majority that, like I talk to people throughout last week, who said I agree with the protests of course, I'm not going to protest, I'm sixty five years old, the idea rain or protesters insanity. So I think I see I feel more heartened about what I'm the cat going, but I do see the pictures I see, the protests are alot of people wearing mass on we're not going the protests of the restaurants. Releasing Lobal who are all expanding their outdoor space was tells me people again that message they should eat outdoors. So I do think if Lebron James Donald Trump Conservative, Ector. Why country, music categories of persons, Z, all said we should wear

ask whenever you can eat outside whenever you can in two other things we're not going to close many business any more, but I do think there are four things values that are too. We can probably for five things that we should try to figure out some consensus around that are not that hard and they made it. We should shame you about those three or four things. Do not just go Willie like wearing a mass is not that hard close. Your bid This is hard, and so I do. I do think, I'm hoping for more consensus around sort of a little less controversial thinks I'm looking forward to that. Grand James and Toby KIDS, Pierre savagely, violence, yes, but you yeah it registering the

even though it seems like the partisan positions on this have broken down a bit. Now that, as you mentioned, nay, like both sides have clear examples of people not socially distancing, whether its protest or honestly, you know if you saw the video of Saint Marks place on Friday, tons of young people out in the street drinking with no masks on you know it seems, like the partisanship has broken down. So when you look at polls, people are answering as if this is a partisan position. So are they just like saying that, because those were the indicators that they got from a lease early on and are sticking with them, regardless of their personal behavior or like what's going on? I don't see that mean depends on what you asked and I do think the evidences in the polls that I've seen still suggest people are not behaving like its February. My right there is some police showed. I think conservatives they're not turn out. As pro mask is Democrats, but there are plenty conservatives who are generally opened the idea of wearing a mass, not tire gating. Like other curious with this, like, I think,

in Tulsa workshops. Gonna had this, I assume most people who from being a little bit silly here, but most people who voted for tromp are probably not going to be at that rail. And my guess is some of them will not be there who wanted to be there because of the Krona, Aristotle Polypus. I asked a question. I sometimes think we overdue the partisan divide on Why will you to a large concert voluntarily tomorrow is, I think, not This is an issue that most people are still saying, no and that's across party lines. As far as I can tell. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think there is still some agreement here yeah. I know. And you know, one of the problems- kind of sharing these photos of people parting? Saint marked place apart from whether shame is an effective strategy, I think probably not right is like it. This isn't a sailor representative right A lot of people are staying home, are being careful. You little pockets, that are occurring. I mean even like, even like a fifty,

thousand person protests in Brooklyn. I was gonna going through my had this morning trying to make assumptions about like how many new cases with that cause. Given various assumptions, I'm not now it is. I'm not gonna give you my speculation, it's not but many though relative to a country of thirteen and thirty million people. Or a city of eight point: three million people, New York City, and so you know it's a kind of every day behaviour that people engage in That probably is a lot more important than highly vis all things, some casino in LAS Vegas, her some protest or party in the ozarks or no one. Ever l some, like I don't know a mere definitions that people are fatigued and kind of letting their their guard down a fair bit at this time I do when I like, and what kind of a note of very Very very guarded. Optimism right, which is like the goalposts are shifting a little bit

where was made first early may be near times can publish the story. So we are worried that, like by end of May, thousand people a day will be diagnosed turn a virus and three thousand people a day will die those we're not consensus predictions. They were kind of this, obviously per now, obviously, but somewhat dubiously claimed my hospital since its nuclear. If anyone actually believed in these in the White House, but now we're talking about, like you know or the past week around, seventy two people have died per day. Not three times and then we're debate when the case are going up or down, but they're not like we're, not a tutor thousand case. We might be at twenty three thousand So there has been some goalpost shifting I do think in terms of additional shaming, not working. I think like for some reason like time you say actually kind of this city is doing so, smart in the states has contact tracing now right and Hague Casement the state for for two weeks, five weeks oh right, there's no kind of celebration

these kind of small successes and so kind who I am I mean there's been some other researchers says like when people are fatalist stick about current virus because they feel like it sucking it fixed than they actually do. Distancing. You know I mean they're like well screw it. I'm not gonna distance for eighteen months, right also like disconnect, as you hear all these things about, expert, maybe them because respected in areas where the absolute returned the highest. If there are increasingly no kind of no people who have it and then I don't know, this kind of? I don't want to encourage people to have like end of the world parties right yeah. So I think this has been devenant into saying conversation and, as per usual role, just see what s happening as these behaviors continue and as we continue tracking the corona virus data, but I think that's it for now. Nobody has anything else they want to end on. I invite all of you to my under the World Party. Would you serve or drink? Would you serve

It's is when I was in college by my first your senior year. I was my papers drinking colonists, and this is when they had a lot. You remember, the large hadron particle collider in in Switzerland. I was obsessed with a story that they were going to afflict the switch, and there was like extremely slim, possibility that a black hole would form and that the world would end, and that was like the theme of my drinking column, the weak the thing came out is I want all these different bars bartenders made me the drink, but you're going to serve right before the world Ass, though, without knowing no we'll just die in an instant well, we know they are footing the sledge like. What do you think, the guy, the guy who fled the switch? I didn't, I probably have like daiquiri or something adapter. What's your end of them

drink. I, like old fashioned, saw this habit of the end of the world drink. Is I can't think of anything else honestly get me something stronger than alcohol. I think yeah? They really just like half a bottle of every kind

the world, I think, would clearly it has to be hard liquor, not like wine or like an idea right like that, can't be your last year. There are doubling people in this world who would have an idea as their last drink I'll just have a soft on the palate shared many ripple. Well, let's leave it there. Thank you need, I think everybody they declared thanks gun and thank you bury thanks to my name is due. In truth, tony child is in the virtual control room- uv untouched by emailing us at podcast that five thirty eight dot com you can also, of course, we did us, but any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us operating or review in the Apple pie cast store or tell someone about us dates for listening and will cease