It's the perfect solution for medium large and entered the it's the perfect for medium large and ended up not give this a Hisses Vegas This is what Vegas hello and welcome to the five three politics pod cast Iron Galen droop for rice present, Joe Biden is currently leading in democratic primary poles and all the indications are that he's going to enter the presidential rates, but the past few days have shown what kinds of challenges his potential campaign could face last, a former Nevada legislator, Lucy Flores, said that bite and touched her shoulders smelt her hair and kissed her head at a campaign rallied for her lieutenant governor bid in two thousand for tee, She wrote in a peace in New York magazine that he made her feel quote uneasy gross and confused. So we're going to talk about what that means.

Violence bid and what considerations he's making more generally in advance of his possible run, and here with me to do that, editor in chief needs over him and consequent skill and fine good scenery six writer clamour land area dead, and managing out of the Microtel Inn. How are you I'm very good, fabulous happy Monday to all although today we are going to discuss whether President Trump squandered last week's the Good NEWS the weak seem just of no more indictments, no finding of a Trump Russia conspiracy, but trumps positions on fully repealing the Asia and possibly shutting down the border with Mexico quickly took the spotlight and his approval raving didn't really go up. Much we'll talk about that. But let's begin with violence As I mentioned, Nevada legislator Lucy Floor, as wrote last Friday, that Biden inappropriately touched her and kissed her head at her campaign event in two thousand fourteen by

spawned with a statement on Sunday writing in my many years on the campaign trail and in public life, I have offered countless handshakes, hogs expressions of affection, support and comfort, and not once never did. I believe I acted in appropriately. If it is suggested, I So I will listen respectfully, but it was never my intention and that's the end of the quota. So Biden is talking about displays of affection. More generally, in that response, do you see either those displays or floor is as account specifically as preventing Biden from getting in the race. At this point, I so many thoughts about this one looks at it the political dimension, Flores is I like slackness entreated this on Friday, when this came out, which was we kind of already knew. That Biden had this way of acting touching being affectionate to women We have known this for a long time and I thought floor, as is framing of it, was interesting because it was the first sort of

like non late night, non comedic, non parity kind of thing it's had. This is why it made me feel uncomfortable I am not calling it sexual assault. I'm saying it was like an inappropriate thing and I'm kind of curious if that changes the political tenor of the discussion around Biden in this sort of like ongoing weirdness that we ve known he's had around women coupled with the need to hell, stuff and and all the sort of gender thing swelling around Biden. I think separately at kind of theirs, that there is a question of how democratic voters react to it right I mean I think people will probably put it on a par with the african allegations of the franc and went a bit further, but I think people see it in the same same realm of like kind of socially acceptable, and that's where I want to get to my third and final point, which is just the way that people interact differ. With women in public, for instance, visa thing. I have long noticed that when you

someone for the first time or like meet them in and take a bite him at the end? Men always shake men's hands and they always hug women until people too treat women differently and social situations there's more of just a feeling that, like you, hug women, are you like Touch him and more and not even like an creepy way, necessarily but they're, just a different approach. Women of lake how to describe it, but it's something I've as for a really long time and in college, for while I stopped I've spoke, was like Haug, I shake hands which is like a weird, reaction, but you're a levelling of the libertarian phase yeah, it's like I dont have, but I do think it puts into the public sphere this kind of thing like. Why do we feel more? free to touch women like when you're pregnant people touch your belly like they're. Just more of a feeling of you just treat women differently, even if you're not like coming onto them are meaning it to be sexual. So I think that the Biden thing has also brought to the fore:

this interesting culture old norm that we have around women and women's bodies in the way we treat them and kind of ours. You ve begun to explain its brought up. What is potentially difficult conversation in for a lot of people in terms of what's the difference between treating women differently and obviously inappropriately from their perspective and sexual harassment or sexual assault How do we talk about those things in the media and how does the public in June, of react? Where do they put up lines in their head about what is acceptable candidate and what is not acceptable and I think we're gonna have conversation. I guess in this primary now. While I was a little, I was actually a little bit surprised by Biden statement, because I didn't think that that very complicated conversation, I didn't think I didn't how to go there in re in response to floors, because her what she said pretty narrowly defined,

She said explicitly dont consider the sexual assault. I dont consider that sexual harassment, I thought I'd, come out and say: listen, throughout my time public office, I have always been very affectionate and wanted to reach out to people. This me to error has been in educating tie for many men and four, and for me important. And I'm now learning that what I viewed one way was then viewed another way. It will never but again, I apologise in steady, almost reacted to it as Ike as if it was a mean again. Florence was she took off the table, the kind of more explosive ways to frame what she was talking about. She did say it was disqualifying, though, in her eyes. Yes, but that's it political Politic right. I'm talking about what labels are you putting onto these this behaviour, these actions, and so I was surprised by how bottom reacted too weak to finish your thoughts,

you thought he was too broad and his. I thought he was too God did you got may be regarded. The word could you you do see some responses when the accusations are more extreme, you see responses like, I believe women should always be believed. I dont have any wreck action of this year, but it's like that and inviting was I kind of close to that when I thought there was this coming easier avenue available to me. I don't know, I think you a sort of half way between. You know cause it says like in my many years. Are the campaign tray on a public life. I have offered countless handshakes, hugs expressions of affection, support and comfort, and not once never did. I believe I acted in appropriately if it is suggested. I did so. I

listen respectfully, but it was never my intention. I may not recall these one with the same way, and it may be surprised that when I hear, but we have arrived at an important time and women feel they can and should relate beer, variances and men should pay attention and I will and then being strong advocate for women blah blah Betty. What is What struck me- and that is, is this law which in their hinting at hey? I Biden recalled this differently as if sort of the actions at the centre of this conversation are up for debate, but there's like video impairs. The ones interesting to me as a key is almost interpret it as, oh, my god, like this I meant to be like sexual bubble when I think in some ways what was bound up and Lucy Floor this explanation? Was she found a paternalistic if not necessarily even sexual, it was just like who is this like I'm, state legislator. What is this guy doing to me? I, her essay. As binds behaviour was yes, we

but also the kiss on the head is, is a paternalistic expression and so by it is almost reading it, as purely like I didn't mean to do. Sexual thing to when it was when I think it's more complicated than that with a lot of lawyers. But they read that yeah, let's wait, let's generalizers for a second, I think what sort of interesting is what you can't read into binding statement? Is him saying that's not how I met yeah and the response is sort of like no. We know how you meant it. That's the problem right. It's like I mean I think. Judging from that Stephen, which was meant to cover broader instances than just this one, this is likely to become a part of his. You know eventual campaign. If he gets in the race has he addressed it? How do we see this larger conversation play

out with regards to bite and behaviour towards women. I'm someone who has, I guess, a politically incorrect view, which is, I think we spend too much time focused on how candidates addressed something in the politics of that and not enough on. Like that actual behavior, I think people are too focused on he apologized or she apologized and the right way, whatever else? Clearly, it is not maybe only instance, of this type of behaviour- that's alleged to have occurred and allow them a kind of in plain sight, where he's kind of I mean we sometimes used the term hands short term response to use for headlines there, like you, know, binds affectionate style with women but seems like not quite right either trifling tread fats

I'm China picture, like the five thirty eight headlines channel only like so quench colleague hands. You remember twenty twenty or thirty our debate but like like, I think, if you look at the political tactics here, Biden is trying to do to do things you know, on the one hand, in the event he gets in the race and goes pretty well, he and afford to alienate large groups of democratic voters, be they women are younger voters or whoever else right. On the other hand, I think there are, a certain number of older, Mostly male Democrats who may not regard this is particularly serious and yeah trying not to look if you're buying camp, I think you're kind of like we need preemptively apologize for this, because it will be a thing among people on the left. Who already dont want Biden as their candidate and see him as the big dog in the recent they wanna take down. But on the other hand, I dont think

goes out of his way to be overly apologetic and solicitous because as neighbours just set part of binds theory of the case? is winning back some Democrats who were lost two trump in twenty. Sixteen, his is to older democrats, who I think, dont have the same. Sensitivities to social situations that maybe I just laid out of about no handshaking versus how truly, unlike or if they do they say. Listen I hear you? I also don't think it's particularly important in the presidential campaign When a vote for Joe Biden Cause, I think he's gonna beat Trump and like that's how they feel about it. I'd go even other than that and say you can imagine if you are trying to appeal to like a rat of republican electorate? You would say this is pc cultural run, a mock right, blah blah blah blah. I you know this: is you can't even behave like a normal human dealing with other people. Now you, after everybody, has to be carted off in a dumb

My primary, I dont think that works by. I do think Probably a lot of people underestimate the extent to which there are a lot of voters in democratic Party, who probably feel that way. I think he saw some of them both for Trump in twenty sixteen, but a kind of does overlap with. Maybe the electorate bite him was going for anyway. Some commentary about this primary so far has labelled it almost like the democratic apology tore. Do you think that their voters in the democratic primary electorate that are actively turned off by having candidates apologize for everything. I guess that kind of what you're describing or more specific to this. That is, I think, voters who are turned off by weakness and I'm not sure

Paul jiving for something like this qualified would would be viewed as weakness by voters. That's the thing is, I think, first, certain set of voters. It's more that listen I'll, take Joe Biden, apology at face value and say he does regret it. But also she's, always apologizing for Anita Hill and for the things he's around this perception. Why are we going in the past right? We have a whole new crop of care. So, let's move forward like you, can see a whole, a big slice of the democratic electorate, saying that, and I think that comes down to more like an age thing that gets to the sort of uncomfortable question for all the baby boomers listener. She read into me when I talk about ages, the party, but it's a real thing where the Democratic Party has been top heavy with baby boomers and this. Twenty. Twenty election has seen a real bumper crop of younger stars. Does thirty seven saying hey we're the bench elect us forget them.

Yeah. I mean the one issue with saying: oh it's a different time. I come from a different era. Is that a kind of mixes? out of touch on multiple dimensions, I am of your age. Reminds voters at cultural moors have changed a lot, and so you know fundamentally with Biden and Bernie. Why should I party nominate some whose six seventy seven, when you have people who are like two more and the age range of typical presidential nominees for the damages? The democratic primary sponsored by Liberator kick a thumb, keep visit, This is something answer at this data, this is something that you are getting at earlier. But do we have data about whether or not a democratic electorate genuinely views these kinds of things differently from a republican electorate? Did

quote business insider here that counted and said that president term has been publicly accused of sexual misconduct by twenty three women since the nineteen seventies. Obviously he won that private and he was elected president, so that a lot of people in the country for whom that's not just Oh fine, do we know based on the data that it is? qualifying for democratic voters. Yes, we do. There have been several positive tried to get at this question and in different ways, Mornin consulted this porn February and what they were trying to get up was how voters viewed candidates accused of various things and when those candidates were a member of their own party or the opposing party right? Basically, what was their hypocrisy? They locked her. So what they found was ten percent of Democrats would consider said they would consider voting for a politician accused of sexual misconduct. In other words, most Democrats would not consider voting for a politician accused sexual must conduct that number ten percent hold true, even when it was even.

And the question said: would you consider voting for a Democrat accused of sexual must counter that numbers way higher for Republican? So thirty percent of Republicans said they would consider voting for a Republican accused of sexual misconduct. Twenty percent of Republicans said they would consider voting for a politician stuff sexual misconduct? So yes, there is a partisan gap here and how severely voters. Respond to allegations of sexual misconduct? May we see that in the polls We ve also just seen that, although look I, I think I have to be careful with that pull away, because a lot of Republicans implicitly take this question about president tromp right. If you they asked in ninety. Ninety nine, would you consider voting for a president who is it use of having a consensual sexual relationship with someone who reported to him in the White House. You know, I think to be like I'd? Consider that you know its consent Joel whatever else, so I

gets a little dangerous to infer from that that Republicans are in here lay more tolerant of scenario enough but has not been proven out in real life, haven't republican politician sort of lived, long in office. What once accused of the north- and this is our no- that's not sexual son Harry. However, though Governor of Virginia as sexual must conduct allegation. In fact, our rape allegation although we should say survival Marino. We do know that these things have an effect and even re more lost and with very extreme accusations involving underage victim, delusion Alabama and it's hard to lose in Alabama under any circumstances, are public, and I wonder if it's an age thing to right, if the republican electorate is older, the democratic electorate is young, early on in has more women. It's a naturally skewing thing. It's a sort of the dilemma that Biden faces. If it were, a plurality takes all opera Mary were all you have to do is win thirty percent

I guess, and then you're the nominee, and he didn't care about his reputation. You're, killing the party or anything else right that he might kind. Lean really hard into this Angola, where he's like in all these social justice warriors on the left, crazy and I'm the one who can be tromp right, because the left party to feel this more crowded, then the right the candidates in the can but a kind of more in the center. Our bike beta booty catch. You are younger and probably the younger voter, so violent bill. I can court of the market on old. Moderate Democrats, there are a lot actually and I can win that roughly thirty per cent of the elite, Europe, and everyone else can divide up the remaining seventy percent ten ways and their screwed. The problem is what happened Biden does that anyone can a very divisive primary and then you get point where the feel has to win because you have binding, Harrison and Warren, or someone or Bernie right. So the fact that He saw it trying to run this out of his friend run on it like a year,

fine message, but part of it with him, considering like the one term pledge. Is this notion that oh, I can kind of step in urgency basis, Halibut, to me, I will run the country normally and competently for four years and will pass the baton off to my vice president, and I think that message is complicated a little bit. So I just want to jump actor Clare of point about thereon, for women in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party and their become parties over all older, so needs needs caviar about tromp looms over all these questions it is right, but a pr I pull from August twenty eighteen September, twenty team some around there did ask, would you definitely not vote for or still consider wrote him for a cannot accused of sexual harassment, and there is somewhat of a gender split, so republican man, twenty eight percent would definitely not the

for I cannot accuse of sexual harassment. Forty one percent of republican women would definitely not vote for such a thirteen point gap right. You see something the other way by thirteen point more of republican man which still consider voting for a cannon queues of sexual harassment on the democratic side. Seventy six percent of democratic man would definitely not vote for a cannon accused of sexual harassment compared to eighty four percent of democratic women, given on the democratic side, there's a gender gap. There is not, quite as on the Republicans yet make. That is interesting and I do want to broaden our conversation a little bit and talk about biting considerations with regard to getting in the way more generally, these floated some ideas of as need. You mentioned that one term pledge and some is about choosing a vice president early, but before we do that, let me tell you that today's podcast is brought you buy. We work

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Kings are, let's continue our conversation about bite in, and I mention this at the beginning and we never really got around to addressing it had on. Do we think that reason to believe at this point in time that Biden broke in the race I mean I didn't This Mamma, I forget: where was a member in politics meeting or an where weekly editors, meaning where I was Ike. It is a little weird that is still not in the race re yeah look. I mean the fact that here the race now I mean, of course you here, whatever you're the usual read, the reports at the back stuff, oh yeah. He intends to get an right, but like it at some level of thumb, I don't know if you don't like any other since involving someone who hasn't done something and they kind of keep missing opportunities to do it. You know if your partner promise is a start, go into the germ or whatever and does not ripped from needs personnel have both my partner do go. The germ cells is. I was just looking for some example or another. I know it

Everything we do here is a real world example. Time. Nate Missis deadline to file a piece, the chances that never file the pieces that's a good example for example. So it's Ike wanting to MRS three or four deadline? There's like a ninety percent check that the peace will never come. Could you model the whip pieces, limbo zone beta hot spots? Their data hotspots paper there really there's one where you promised it for like literally a year, and it never came. I can't remember what it was, but anyway it would, M pretty what was what was the the leaked comment? Awhile but where it was like he doesn't want to get into a race that he's not going to win. Yeah parry I do not want we're having this conversation awhile ago, where he characterize it. As Biden says in all these interviews-

There is as yet only gonna get enough. It's like a shorter, but I can read it just the thing, which is that, which is, I think, he'll run, but I do think the psychology of a man running for president for the third time at an older age and fear down the prospect of personal humiliation if he loses with for someone, if you, if you are in trouble, no matter who you are you the healthy ego and that amount of power. No humiliation to ponder, on a national stage must be quite a psychic burden, ended and it is not an uncontested primer, obviously so I'm sure he has the practicalities of thing put things pulling against is real mental block. I would guess known he'd be he'd, be sitting in jeopardy. A pretty plum position right now. Would you know the elder statesmen? Did the story exactly the stories we are talking about earlier? You know if he doesn't, we still mostly beloved in the party has the best favourable ratings, etc, etc. And, if he's like, if he's waiting,

for evidence that he is anything more than a meagre favorite too Thus primary he's not gonna run. That evidence doesn't exist when it comes to increasing those odds. His camp, it seems like, has floated a couple potential measures that he would take to try to appease any concerns with regard to his age or the fact that he is on older white man, both in maybe floating in turn, pledge or choosing a vice president during the primary who is younger, a person of coal a woman are those Poland Lee wise promises to make does that increases odds first of all, call Stacey Abrams think we had a very long, so I can chat on Stacey Abrams, and I have a lot of respect for Hers politician and I think buying would be lucky to have her in some capacity on the ticket

it doesn't seem like Stacy Abrams necessarily wants any part of it said she kind of said like when asked and she's doing her own kind of publicity tourism that would make you wonders she may be Thinking more seriously about running man, she's been given credit for, but that helping strange right. It was published in access, which I shot coming shot. Coming, there's a lot of it. We offer the parity piece by piece. Permitting about Axion about Trump was thinking about recognising the king of France in any way but like, but there's like you think about it. Yes, we're like it's, where a lot of thinking out loud takes place on matters that that's like that. Actually, The charitable view of what access does a here's, what I say for actual When did you get some real scoops number to it? unvarnished and unfiltered trial balloons right. It's not like dressed up in some language that will make you take a particularly seriously. It's like an obviously a trap.

Lemme twenty went to acquiesce rosy. I we'd like vague as you have to meet it where it is worth taking gale and just got back from Vegas likeness. See need we shouldn't get into a debate about access, but I think you're saying that as a Ober sophisticated me the consumer, when my issue is, for the average in an and tat Bore as an insult and now I'm gonna, but but for Europe. Average reader. I dont think there are many tap off that it's like just thinking out loud anywhere, but little bizarre and they kind of afforded her name in this public without her sign off. Maybe they signed off any were. Obviously I think her team is obviously a bit taken aback by so much is almost like smacks. A little bit of tokenism took my privilege clearly that was a little bit odd. But let me talk about it more in the abstract in terms of the calculation here, demographically or

ever kinds of calculations Biden is making or potentially making. Are they smart ones? The one term pledge naming a younger maybe women of color to run as his running. They are these smart strategies. I think, there's a way we you get in the razor and you you can say, listen, you know I'm certain generation as a white man I have a certain perspective, I would seek to balance that perspective and expand beyond my personal experience in all my appointment, but most especially in in picking a vice president that maybe we could have gone over a little better than like leaking or whatever they did spit difficulty Stacy Abrams with apparently not like calling her campaign beforehand, but to me that the Stacey Abrams thing, and the one term pledge thing was like the first tip off that there chance. Biden might not run look. I know this isn't based on

any reporting or anything it's just like fighting is wait, leading pause of democratic rays, and yet is like, urging for these fixes to a problem I dont think can be fixed, which is just that any one person is not going to have a good chance of This primary possess lots of viable candidates in it. So if that's what you're looking for that, they're not gonna find it. Yesterday I may look every with every. A? U point, two reasons why they want win. But by his live in India, is not even any added. My pants that the one the one that strikes me as the most interesting is the one term pledge, because such an immediate, like lame that it's a fascinating of like go in being a lame duck. Does matter at a moment if your proposition is too like heal. The country should also kind of grandiose proposition is a bit of it.

Spawns to trumps, I alone can fix it. I mean Biden is kind of bring an, I alone can fix it by saying I'm the one who can do this. One term thing we know put a stable administration in place of that there is a certain mirror going on yeah. The one term pledge would be particularly interesting bow if it was coupled with very early on naming summoned to that VP slot presented moves from just straight up tokenism tools listen. I'm old, I'm gonna be out of here soon, but I'm gonna like co president. This and then set this up. Percent up when were years to run after, but he doesn't have a willing second fiddle. You have no idea that I mean when did winded TED crews name,

if your highly fearing tat his his VP around the time of Michigan so well into the primary calendar I haven't done, it was early. You have to get. You have to have a few people's lino dreams be smashed to smithereens before you get someone who's gonna be Our final do it, but it goes back to you go question. You know like none of these people, are wallflower Khaled love too busy to well. Why am I got you hook? Mylar? Yes, let me say one more thing about buying news. Getting thirty percent, roughly support in the pole which is considerably more than any other candidate sanders had kind of surged power has now been brought back by the tied to twenty two percent or something. I do think that there is a risk that people talking about button on twitter it up cast in particular and, to a lesser extent, throughout the media. Are these people who are more an younger and kind of more

concerned with the way behave towards women and other things right, and so I don't know we should be content. Own biases as our using yet I mean I can both be true that Britain, that Biden has a lot of problems. Economic between You know if you have a guy who is the clear pulling front runner right now. According to protection markets has only add, depending which market you look at market has with an eleven percent chance of winning the nomination that, because, in those markets, gang has can ninety three percent. Ok, ok, I'm not sure I seriously. I would take us ok but like there's another man, s with a sixteen percent chance of winning the same as like PETE British such are the same as peep bided impede budgets are judged the same in terms of their chances of winning the pretty close and in the better markets interesting. So I don't but isn't that high there's a lot of discount built in marital, like the commissioner was about by the chances, I think, is a risk of like

counting we're, like you know, owe me are: let's talk about trumps first week after the conclusion of the special council investigation, but before we do that, let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to buy light stream. You know it feels great paying off high interest credit cards, getting a lower rate in saving money, refinanced, your credit card balances and save with a credit card consolidation loan from light stream get a fixed rate six point one four percent, a pr with ATO pay, get alone from five thousand to a hundred thousand, and there are no fees and you can even get your money as soon as the day you apply want to save even more listeners, get an additional interest rate discount. The only way to get this discount is to go to white stream. Dot com, slash five, three, eight, that's l! I e g HD asked he r e m dot com, slash five, three, eight, the numbers not the latter's subject. Accredit approval rate include

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a calm, slash politics to get started today, that simply safe dot com, slash politics and be sure to go there. So we know we sent you it's simply safe ass, I m p ally, safe dot, com, slash politics or we're back last week, seemed relatively good the start for tromp there would be no more special council indictments. There wasn't evidence of a Trump Russia conspiracy, but who created some new political tension. His administration took the legal position that the affordable care act should be fully repealed, which will likely lead to Supreme Court Battle and Trump threatened to close the border with Mexico. Is Mexico doesn't put a stop to immigrants entering the US illegally? So, let's be very 538e up at the top trumps approval hasn't budged much since bars letter. It's up zero point, two percent. I don't know if we consider that in any to be significant, but was their reason to expect it to go up? And if so, why hasn't it,

I have a whole laundry list of reasons why you would not expect to go up as part of the peace that hopefully we'll be filed, fatter near its deadline. Look, and I would have said I dont want to suffer too much from hindsight bias. When I wrote about bar letter after it came out which go Sunday. I said I wasn't sure what from the brain would go up or not. I think if you had kind of put a gun to my head, I would have such I'll go up by appointing a half or something, and so far it's gonna buy may be. Zero maybe half a point or somewhere in their so very little. But there are a lot of reasons. Why might be the case solving them in no particular order number one? Trumps proceedings have not moved very much for anything, and so even momentous events like health care or coming being fired, might move things at a shut down that my move things by three or four points. It seemed like we're pretty bad with a narrow range or to the mother report itself has not been released and voters are reserving judgment

Three voters, don't necessarily the Miller report as exonerating Trump in part because it does not exonerate in mothers on language of obstruction, it's hard to say more, having seen the Miller report number for the public's expectations for the mother report, rapidly pretty modest, contrary to some very loud pundits. You say the whole narrative was about Ben Putin. You know kissing in a tree or whatever a shadow has been lifted from the White House. Tat number five, the White House, Talk about more, like this part of the theory right that the White House, a spin, has been or they have that much of other unpopular stuff is trying to ride the coat tails of this we're six to investigation is not a big priority for voters. So look at that now again. Benefit of hindsight, and you like it actually quite overdetermined. All these reasons. Why move a needle very much the thing that kind of ended up taking over? In the wake of the summary of all his report? Last week, were the administrations position

the affordable care act and then, by the end of the week, a threat to shut down the border with Mexico. I don't just want this to be a segment about. You know: hey those are political. Stupid things. We ve said that many times that, if you always doubled on your base that that's not a strategy to necessarily win reelection, but So maybe so maybe here's a question right knee if his approval really doesn't change all that much then, who cares like? Why not try to take these risks? Why not do? they may be politically unhappy over a large chunk of that, But if you know you're not give it suffer the tanks, the economy it could have negative, because his power, you gonna lose for preventing as forty two percent amount. So that's a loaded statement right. You can pack that record of your it here. First folks know, but like Trump should not be happy about the fact that his approval rating doesn't move if it were fifty two percent and never moved you be thrilled, because then you kind of luck and a victory.

Eighty per cent you need where things happened, a win, one of which is that the Democrat is also really unpopular, is very possible by the way. Maybe you have eighth party can it who is much more interesting to people than Howard Schulz, as, for example, obvious You can benefit again from the electoral college, helping you that was a big factor, needless to say, helping Trump in two thousand and sixteen. So he still at forty percent has the path saleable by which she one in twenty sixteen, but a lot of things had to come together and waiting for him to win and, like that's the whole point it's like if this doesn't lift his numbers then what's gonna, let his numbers me people talk about like this kind of high floor. A trump, but the low ceiling is a big is a big problem, four closes a lot of options on how he would try to win the when the presidency? The other thing I was thinkin, Pat, disregarding the mother report, is, you know a pole came out must been like a month ago.

Two months ago, and it showed that Americans favoured impeachment if mother found obstruction of justice, at about the same level as they did. If Mahler found collusion I was super surprised by that, because it my mind- and I think for the kind of narrative had been a media. Land collusion is the big thing, obstruction a sort of one or two levels below that, and I think it's another example- nay kind I gotta does, but it another example of where voters view of the Moldova mother report and and how that view fit in with the kind of the rest of their considering is, is is kind of way. Print them, then the media's, but it also it speaks to these other things, where is importuning a good moment for him by going after

bomb care again and by going back to the border, I don't know I I feel like it's all baked in like it was never going a good moment. I think I said that on this podcast and that this isn't gonna hurt him, because it's all already bake them nothing modern afford no words like me, but I really do not now have always been like, and I have always been of. The did. Nothing matters thing is everyone's already dug in part is unwise and in some like the shutting down the borders, does feel baked in the health care stuff caught me off guard to be honest, because healthcare is such an advantageous issue, Democrats, China, sea into trumps political mindset or the administrations pinnacle mindset. Is it ok, we're gonna, show people that were giving at the good old college. Try. On the other hand, now there too there trying to take away. The provisions are super popular with people, treatment of covering pre existing conditions than those things like that. So I do have

a bull, seeing the political logic there. On that one I mean. Does anyone thought what are the potential repercussions of kind of giving Democrats the opportunity to run on the popular provisions of the Asia? in twenty Twond aiming does out. Who does not women? Does it Wyndham independence? Does DR turn out I mean: is this a useful political tool for Democrats now, yeah probably does Birthday But I think we only see that if all of this all of this needs to happen in a sustained way, I think for there to be real political repercussions from it part of what was powerful about the initial GEO P effort to go after Obamacare was that it was happening for while right it was like week after week they kept trying to do it and was in the news, compare that something like the child separations at the border right. That policy on behalf of the Trump Administration with Sir

Cooper unpopular. It was I really really unpopular, but you didn't see all that much movement in trumps operating, partly because it's big then also just because there was never really time for for there to be an effective like they were doing it, and then they stop doing it. So I think it would take it. The administration renewing its it's kind of anti Obamacare push in a sustained way, being in the news for awhile and or you know, if Trump actually does shut down the border and the like stay shut down. A has all kinds of economic concept does and all that, then I think it has an effect. Can we just explain what the irish people are more familiar with the Asia and provisions for covering people with brings us in conditions and the medicate expansion what does shutting down the border mean. Trump goes down there with a stop sign and appellate gun. Ok-

shutting down the trade border essentially or the poor, the ports of entry, shutting down the ports, which means stopping the flow of people and goods between the? U S and Mexico, Sir, ITALY. The topic may be illegal immigration, but shutting down the border doesn't really have much to do with the ways that people enter the country illegally. It's all about the ways that people and goods enter the country legally, I don't think we should try to see too much logic in this necessary legate. Yes, it is about. It is about shutting down what Trump has the power to shut down right, which is like the warts? It's like the one. That's like the war, involving its procedural wall, was what it is a good way to put it yeah Ami, when gallop asked people an immense the mid term, which issues you consider extremely important are very important. The top as she was health care at well. They asked about the bottom issue was investigation into russian involvement in the twentyth century selection, and so it just dumb,

damn for her for Trump. I mean immigration of different. I think immigration in the way I was very unpopular and I think it was kind of maybe adjacent enough to the wall. Words not helpful for him, but, like I know it does put you something to motivate his base and depending on like China, which policies he picked. But, like me, in other legal run through the courts at Obama. Care is one of the dumber ideas. I think Trump could pursue if he wanted to maximize the chances of re election and in twenty twenty eight. While I think that sounds like a good place to leave it. Thank you name. Thank you. Galen. They declared thanks gun. Thank you, mica. Thank you Clare, and I should also mention that we have some used to renounce. We are doing a Texas lives. Tear ass, so we are going to be in Boston, unmade, sex and we're gonna be in Houston on me.

Helstone housed in those new Yorkers Donna. How to say yesterday and for more details and tickets. Gotta, five. Thirty, eight dot com slash lives. We had a great time in New York. We look forward. Seeing you at our lifestyles and Texas. My name is Andrew Tony Chow is in the control room you get in touch my email in us at par cancer, five, three dot com you can also, of course we did us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the ship leave us a rating, a review in the Apple podcast store cartels. About us face for listening and we'll see you soon her