Heather Listeners Galen here I just wanted to let you know that we recorded this podcast before the news broke. The aim inclosure would be dropping out of the democratic primary and endorsing Joe Biden, so we do mention her as though she still in the race but just know that she's not I hear you, hello and welcome to define party politics. Podcast find you drink tomorrow is the big day for ten states and American Samoa will cast their votes on Super Tuesday with one thousand three hundred fifty seven delegates up for grabs. That's a third of all the delegates available. The democratic primary ways and only a hundred fifty five delegates have been awarded up until now. So just as a point of comparison, we're gonna preview, where the re stands in those states and nationally were also get to talk a notable drop out. This weekend, Sunday night PETE Buddha Judge got out of the race. Saying quote

have a responsibility to consider the effect of remaining in this race any further. He did not refer to any candidates by name in his concession speech, although I'm sure listeners can get the sub text hear me to discuss our editor in chief mate. Sovereign has a going to Unwell, also Let us is in our power to try to climb alone. How are you getting and managing editor make a common area very nice? Thank you. I won't psyched. First super Tuesday can be a late night. Do you think are the gross culturally some moas year. I ran out where they named after, like American Samoa like. Why are they call back? You know, I don't know any girl scouts listening to the five thirty politics parkers, please I suggest you, girls, girl, scout cookie, sees right, but I don't think that's why american tomorrow is having a carcass, but our summer was the gross ones. Just like November, aren't even cocoanut. Another runs yeah there we might not have elements are good, but there the pride of the best, ok area, so

the winner of the IRA Carcasses- is out before Super Tuesday. Let's begin with Buddha, judges vision to get out of the race Clare. Why did he get out now? Well myriad reasons one: he doesn't really has path forward. You know, I think, a lot of ways. People judges campaign, sort of saw the writing on the wall early and made a deft pivot. He kind of started off is one of these like more progressive campaigns. It was. He was kind of on the young woke train along with a lot of the senators. And then about halfway through? He was like and basically like flipped Huey and was like actually I'm moderate and stop talking about a lot of the kind of systemic change things he was talking about and really kind of double down on. I'm a unity, Canada Bob so ended up being a cannon. Who was largely focused on Iowa and New Hampshire in part, because he was a new name and that was needed a place to make a speech

but also didn't, have much appeal outside of white voters. Didn't really do that well in non white states, and I think new, that's Post South Carolina life would only get more difficult from on that front and, I think, probably does have is future in the party to consider. He is no longer the mayor of soft bend. Indiana though forever in our hearts, Mayor PETE, I suppose. God branding when you got around right on earth with that, but I think he should be public feels a certain amount of pressure not to be like an asshole spoiler candidate, and so, if you get out at a time when you can make, make an endorsement of someone who tat, perhaps Joseph Joseph Robin Abiden, who might be kind of the The stop Bernie candidate and may be. Peat is angling for an eventual position on a cabinet? Perhaps given that their

really many statewide offices you could run for Indiana. I've talked to long upon a silver here: Serbs the growing from that. How does his exit from the race effect the other candidates, given your mention of possible endorsement and not wanting to be a spoiler. I mean forceful plan from our PETE Run for another Shep run for another midseason western town and our mission mercurous for Taylor should be shaking in his boots, so he can just be kind of like like it like. That would undermine the turn out there. Just like a mercenary may, mercenary mirror don't like your mayor, call p restless, in Vienna, your get anywhere at village. It ok getting serious. What effect does his exit from the rays have on the other candidates and their chances of winning the nomination there are two levels of this? One is that it has some effects on the delicate math, where you have Bernie and it is a national front runner, or at least was precise through a liner and has a pretty broad

listen where he was gonna get at least fifteen percent in almost every state Gresham District that matters, because you need fifteen percent to qualify for state or district delegates. You had a bunch of other candidates who are kind of flirting on either borderline a fifteen percent, so both Blue Earth and Warren are very close to fifteen percent nationally. And binds mostly by fifteen percent by in his weaker states, might be below it, and so The fact that you now have mare page ten percent distributing the other candidates means that it helps to the candidate above fifteen percent as all that makes it less likely that Bernie has a runaway margin, and so do we expect that support to be split up evenly across the candidates or child disproportionately to other moderates like by or maybe I mean here's where the context matters right- our model basically takes that ten percent divides at evenly between the top four and a half candidates who hath calabash

in the context of their actually is like a lot of bullshit closer overlap, but she's not doing very well and so by anyway. Let's just say that, like you take that support right it among the five non gabert candidates evenly, which might be a decent assumption. Ordinarily right, but you have. Strata occurring in the context of the moderate, laying consolidating around Biden Novice uneven. At the very least evolve undecided. Voters who just hurt a lot of good news about Biden and theirs dance that by time here listen this or not. We don't know that they may be an endorsement of Biden right you know, I think there is a lot of upside for for Biden more then Our model shows majority, despite in about three South Carolina about like, but I think this is a pretty good development for Joe Biden. I with that, but you can understand why the model- and I think that you divided evenly

cover candidate has something going for him or her. You know Warren. She has a lot of college educates. Support just like Buddha Judge Sanders The most popular in the re, so he he would get a share I didn't, as in the modern lane, just like Buddha Judge yeah. Nepal is a bit ambiguously, but but is not a little bit like everyone gets a ribbon. Aren't people closure and born COBRA Reynard West? That was last one, so I'll catch you later in many ways, sort of like a simply out of there. As far as I used to voters, no, they get a sense that they want to pick somebody who has a shot or no, I That's right! That's why they are your eye, saying I think the most upside is forbidden however, in Minnesota in Massachusetts respectively, exactly then the two home state centres are the best shot showed you want. It not have Bernie, be nominated the thing but, like I made the point about the model like it, is an approximation and inferior like

hey we're going to use some relatively conservative priors, because in three or four days will have enough polling to sort out by the polling? in this case we're gonna get hardly any polling. I very little pulling South Carolina, even less points, Post Mare, PETE drop out, so it's kind of like direction I think the model is right that, like that binds chances are way up, Are we over under estimating we have allowed together? We're gonna, move on to the state will raise nationally and Super Tuesday, but because this is the first time this is happening that somebody drops out of the race who actually has delegates for listeners edification. What happens when somebody who has delegates dropped out of the race we're happens to their delegates, it hence the district delegates they keep. Now those delegates are selected by the campaigns, and you know, pit mere PETE could instructed delegates vote for

Biden or Warner whenever they want they don't have to go along, in fact, in Iraq, along with everything the deputy. Actually all I would we I would definitely be outsourced Billy, I'm doing whenever I want don't tell me what to do what Murphy pick you up here that type of personality, but I'd be like a sleeper cell of maybe hurry and Clare Prom with authority. But let me I'm giving too some delegates are reallocated the delegates that you get at state why level, which is about a third of the total area I hated to other candidates, depending on when you drop out. If you'd wrap up targets, are chosen Van ethnically those get reallocated Canada or also viable so already in our delegate tracker. I think other news, you have not done this yet you have merit losing like six Adele gets. He got, which I think go like three or four them go to one goes to binding like Tudor Warren or something so already accounting. For for that,

a molecular factor later on, like let's say that Michael Bloomberg gets three hundred delegates and Super Tuesday. A hundred of those could be reallocated if he were to drop out later now there are things like you could suspend your campaign and not formally drop out and say. I want to make sure I keep. I get my delegates right and then casually direct them to do whatever you want out. The convent yeah me why? Don't you have more leverage that way also might decide okay. Well, you can do the math and say: ok, I'm Michael Bloomberg, if I drop out, I do well. The same states Biden does therefore sixty would go to buy Thirty two burning intend to war in actual, go ahead in and give those two Biden, punch delegations. I want Biden to win and

for so he has some options reality there and we will probably dig into that more as more candidates drop out in the future. But let's move on and talk about the state of the race nationally and in Super Tuesday states, but first today's podcast is brought to you by zip recruiter, hiring used to be hard, multiple job site stacks of Razumihin, a confusing review process, but today hiring can be easy and you only have to go to one place to get it.

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Stands nationally. So the big question is whether Biden Surge in South Carolina was a state specific event or whether he was surging nationally and we just didn't have up to date, pulling showing that search. So, Micro, what's the answer, but I mean we had polling showing him surging national I mean surging surging is, I guess word but bedlam. Why don't? We didn't have national pulling showing Biden up before South Carolina yeah? I'm national, ok, yeah yeah. I guess the poles were mostly just showed him up in South Carolina, so you re, we we no, no. That Biden has surged NASH, may yet at all. Really I mean it's suffers just moving way too quickly. Its events are unfolding faster than pulse can can capture them. How confident should we be

bite in is up nationally and like Bloomberg is down. I think we should be relatively confidante yeah. I agree here, but I do also think that if this had been, if, if like North Carolina, where the state that voted instead of South Carolina forth in the primary line of things. I'm not necessarily share Biden would have done as well right, like Biden is really dug in with South Carolina politics here It was on vacation there. He like you're here he has tended to this particular states in a very particular way, so it was basically like once I mean I think, Kleiber kind of putting the endorsement out and deciding like. I am going to give Joe this extra boost right before God bless. Here's thirty points as a walk away when whatever, but I do think Biden has probably

if moderate voters or pragmatic cortical, pragmatic democratic voters our seeing Sanders be labelled by Europe. People like us, as it it's his race to lose he's the front runner. Well, that starts to make people nervous about the general election, and then they kind of go back to the Biden. Well say is so bad is it you know? Does it you know, doesn't matter that he sometimes steps on his words, whatever so economic sense, that as Sanders rises. So two does the anxiety of the moderate democratic voter who's been trying to choose a bunch of other different people? I think that totally right, and I think that partly explains why you saw some movement towards Biden in South Carolina before the debate after about it. If, before the debate, the other thing, I would say just as evidence that Biden is up nationally and we just don't know it because we don't have polls- is he's gotten a bump in more than just South Car,

I know he's up in Virginia he's up in North Carolina he's up in California, not the California is improved and colorful He stopped sorry not wanting their high yeah yeah. Sorry, he had improved and all are you talking about the recent polling, polar their odds according to our model, I'm talking about are pulling average. Okay, so just to ask us right now are pulling average shows sanders at twenty nine percent, nationally Biden at seventeen percent nationally Bloomberg at fifteen percent and warrant at thirteen percent. Should we more or less disregard that and basically say we don't have enough, Recent data, in order to feel that that shows a good picture of the race yeah, so we don't know posts after allowing national poles, so the model makes some inferences about, guessing at the size, the bounds and it would have more, like I think it's like roughly at three or four points to Biden. Take do away from burning. It would have it like Biden, Wendy

one Sanders, twenty six, twenty seven, that's probably, if guess of what a national would say right now, except the both get some points from british. So maybe it thinks it's like Sanders. Thirty Biden, twenty three or twenty four are. We gonna do much more data before people vote or in a little, but clearly not enough not constitute like many. You basically need like four or five new poles after an event happens for you to check out your price. Right and say: ok, that's enough data. Now we have a solid average, We're gonna get. We might get one or two nationals, and will you dont get by the way you don't get like the so called gold standard? Abc washed imposed, canopy Ak Nbc Wall Street Journal Type Telethon poles because they usually take three or four days Is there very uncomfortable going into the midst of like a one day, news environment rights? You can get mostly online ivy. Are you know, text kind of poles it can tell you something, but you know we're not going to have like,

National numbers come up for Super Tuesday, so but like by again them Zeb error, are very wide here. Would it surprise me if, if you did have Poles I'm out when it surprise me if an embassy sure, Nepal, Head Biden thirty two sanders. Thirty, two tied. No, that would surprise me. It would surprise if it sought centres. Nine points ahead. There's a lot of work that we are going to be resolved before Super Tuesday in some ways? Does that mean that we should expect the result on Super Tuesday to be off from the pulling averages that we have shown? As there hasn't been a lot of data input www outlier attire model is giving Biden some credit for abounds, number one and increase the uncertainty. So we have really wide confidence intervals on our forecasts. Let me go to California here, for example, so Sanders forecasts thirty, four percent of the vote, but there's arranged between twenty eight and forty and arrange only covers eighty percent of the outcomes, likewise Biden, Rachel, nineteen and thirty percent, and note not now

chile bindings high enough his range in California overlaps with the low and a burning range. It's not very likely stop very likely, but, like It's now possible that you'd have we're ok, so we really are flying some a blind here. Where would you guys put them look? Would this is, I guess, work into Action to take all this with a grain salt, but where would you put the national numbers right now? again. We have Sanders twenty nine Biden, seventeen Bloomberg fifteen Warren thirteen closure- five, I think Biden- is probably a bit higher than

nineteen percent in my I'm Bloomberg, lower and lower and lower. If I would guess that you seen support fall away from the non sanders and bite and candidates, because he, I think it's pretty clear to people at this point, especially after Buddha, judge dropping out young that that's what the race looks to be, and I think that yeah and that's it. That's a strong signal to voters from they D judge. I think I'm kind of curious if MIKE Bloomberg, if he sort of doesn't do very well on Super Tuesday, if he then drops out o, like so convinced. He's gonna really underperform his paws on Super Tuesday that have begun to doubt myself just because, but you think he would drop out an indoor spiten if he didn't do well and Super Tuesday, given that that's where he is his investment, I think you're, the merger yeah yeah, but I don't know if it's hard to say, because I would have never expected him to get the rates in the first place. Yet back at him to give Biden money in whatever I mean it's our kind of like the take away. This is basically like yet

or changing their minds right now, as we speak, there aren't that many poles in the field and what they morning probably very early morning. I think the shape of the race will have you know we will have since been a little bit have the race will have shape where an be directing over their shape gargantuan super, what shape where? Oh, my god This is the part where our podcast switches over to the paid premium content, and if you would like there are clear- and I talk about shape where, in the context of the democratic primary showed our patria. Now I'm kidding, we don't have one recent, whereas the modern girdle Spinks. Yes, I would say like Sanders thirty one bite in twenty six twenty seven Bloomberg, seven eight war and seventy eight We're gonna hold you to have enough votes there,

I think there are lot undecided. It's like nice national, pulling advertising. It's like Anderson Biden both that thirty two, how interesting having sanders style had really you. I don't know what, as close out we're gonna find out what the shape of the race looks like Wednesday morning, which is even more reason that people should tune in why I got our lie: sour tat guy exciting day tune into our lie blog tomorrow, but also check out they right now. We have this really awesome tool that lets. You predict who's. Gonna win each state on to Tuesday and in show you how the odds change overall, depending on result, for example, if you assume that Sanders is gonna win. California, his chances of winning a majority of delegates increase from twenty two percent to only twenty three point. Seven percent because of his

Its large look. Egg environments. California goes from thirteen to forty three ok habitats, though give California Bernie but give taxes to Biden and his chances increase from eleven percent to seventeen percent overt Anders are so go check that out, but let's get into the specifics of Super Tuesday and give listeners a preview in the states. They're gonna be voting. So, as I mentioned, a third of all the delegates are at stake and we're gonna go through this by region, but to give you ve, just the biggest prizes are California, with four hundred fifteen Pledge Delegates Texas, with two hundred twenty eight, and then there are six other states in the South Virginia North Carolina alibi Tennessee Arkansas and Oklahoma, two more in the West, Utah Colorado, three in the northeast main Vermont and Massachusetts?

Its then lonely Minnesota in the Midwest, and then American Samoa will also caucus and Democrats abroad will begin their voting process which will end on the tenth, let's start with what probably the most interesting race tomorrow. Americans, my american cinema, sorry factual issues Texas so clear, what's happening in Texas, who'll boy, while Lotta MIKE Bloomberg money in Texas, I think he has is the most field offices there and is making a push. I think to be kind of like this is one of the big, delicate troves is where my bookmarks kind of planted his flag. If he's gonna be a spoiler, he's gonna be boiler in Texas over open primary. So Republicans can vote for my Bloomberg if they want to correct that said, like going, some other time at earlier. Who knows it you're gonna take Bloomberg seriously right, like maybe they will have seen him in the debates. And be like, or maybe they will have seen bags performance in South Carolina.

Either better either better moderate option. So I'm not gonna go for four Bloomberg, but that as you know, money and time and a state do get you places. So you know we can look to Biden, South Carolina, win and say like ok, you tend to your garden, it might grow, and perhaps Texas will bloom for, oh god who terrible metaphor, taxes will bloom for MIKE Bloomberg, while blue bonnets. Yet it seems to be a little bit of a question between the strength of sanders with latino voters so far and then maybe Biden with black voters and moderate white. How do we say that playing out and what we can do? We rate the race, Oh, my god, I I think it's a very close race in Texas and I wouldn't begin to guess kind of who has an advantage there. In an appalling average. We have both sand there. And bite in our up. Our have been climbing of late.

There's, leads overall twenty nine percent to twenty four percent, and you know we have, We have gotten some Texas pulling. We had a today. We have you yesterday, so it could. A pretty close, interestingly enough, but Berger, you know was still The climbing for awhile got up to like eighteen. Nineteen percent he's like level off down like seventeen percent, but he hasn't cratered there and worn is still at twelve percent. That can I ask and open primaries question. What do we think about the Renault to call it the narrative that go with it was going around that people were pushing for Republicans to vote and the democratic primary and to vote for Bernie Sanders doings. Avenant media so to construct explicitly said over four Bernie There's always the story lines about that's mischief making and it never happens. People are gonna happen, one

happens in a meaningful and meaningfully Texas more widely than South care, what you know but Bloomberg being like an actual centrists as opposed to live A mainstream Democrat, like Joe Biden, I mean there might be Republicans and independence or like actually we want my glimmered me my president summer form in the primary in open primary states. Yet we are not needed. So much easier to make the downside case for four Bloomberg but remember you no use at all these states, fifteen or sixteen percent, and that before undecided he does have kind of aground game. He make it Samir PETE supporters, you dont, goaded by dinner. Someone else right I mean I I think there is almost no case were like Limburg winds, five states right is there a case where he candidates as Paul Every and gets to energy, get some men has some power is about.

Her than may be sure it's kind of a fairly decently likely scenario. So right now are model shows Biden where the fifty five percent chance of winning the most votes in taxes and Sanders a forty three percent chance. I buy the teams about right. May it almost a conflict with binding with a small edge. That makes sense you ain't gonna, shows that, since we have Biden up or down by five in the raw polling average than them, those figuring almost none of those poles or posts a thrill for really give abiden. If I point Bautzen Atossa, that's moralist what its will say and we do believe that it's a two way race there and while Bloomberg may do well he's not in there to actually, when is that fair, a would be kind of A surprise was gone so here here here would be my prediction do if lava

If Bloomberg winds estate on Super Tuesday, I think it'll be one of his stronger states that less contested like I do wonder a little bit on some of these states like Arkansas or Oklahoma, where he's been spending a lot of money and nobody else is like super contesting exactly right is: is there that's where I would expect in unexpected Bloomberg when rather in Texas, air everybody's in in the sand pit. Ok, let's move on to California, which, as I mentioned, has four hundred fifteen pledged I'll get the most populous state. What is it if California, where its own country and have the six largest economy in the world? So is there any question? Who will in California. Yes, there is not much there's, not ok, there's a base The one in ten chance at Sanders does not when, according to our forecast, some ninety percent chance that he does when eighty nine ok, but one in ten. This is

lesson in probabilities for early one in ten spread. The good news is: look there. How many states are putting on Tuesday fourteen something like that so in terms of probabilities. You know you would expect a couple surprising results may be. A Fournier will go to tools gabert around anyway. Clare. You ve spent time reporting out the dynamics of the Democratic Party in California, one of the contours of the race there from the perspective of of the leading candidates, but also just from the perspective of who, California, Well, you know, I think we all have a kind of stereotypes about Californians as being Superman. Well and obviously it's a state that is dominated by the Democratic Party and has been for essentially a couple decades, but there are staff, Bushmen voters within that state, and I do I do think that there is room for abiden surge in part because of that right, like, for instance, Dian Feinstein Feinstein, I was

go back and forth, but pronounce her name in one of them is correct. Yes, she's pretty establishment Democrat who's been in office, therefore really long time. But then again, you know, take Kamel Harris, who has not endorsed anyone since dropping out like who had come. A Harris vote, for, I think, is a really good stand in winter, ass, the first for the California middle of the road voter Joe, I didn't catch me. Am I the questioning town? Why do you say? Well I say that because she does not seem to be a matter for all populist progressive. The senator who see she took Barbara boxer just endorse Joe Biden. I know that the progressive left in California is not a huge fan of Combat Harris, Crow prosecutors record and just in general per being more establishment, etc. So there obviously the florentines quite loud Californians, who don't like that kind of politics. Also, California is very wealthy, where there are a lot of rich people who I don't necessarily think want to see an economic revolution. So

I'm saying is like while Sanders is currently the leader California- and we have this image of california- is being you know, this trove of liberal voters, which it is on some level like lots of young people state, obviously a strength of Sanders. I do still think that there's a lot their lot abiding voters there by the way people judges campaign, you know had a certain amount of you know if he had made to Super Tuesday, would have focused on California would have looked to be kind of the ok, not Sanders Super Liberal, not Biden Super Old School, but this kind of, like nice, young, moderate in the middle and as we ve talked about before and pack ass, a lot of those words my go to to what's wrong with me Biden in again I have not mentioned Elizabeth worn in part, because I am doubtful about voters seeing her as a viable candidate right now. So I'm kind of I do. I think we are all kind of speaking in term in a two percent,

race terms. Now again, maybe they'll be surprise like you look like if something to say about them always says the private. Just such a wild card is such a good question of like do voters see Warren as a viable Canada right now, you think no, she hasn't done well. State really safer. I was a little bit. She you. But you have like a lot of Pro Warren Voice. Those are pundits are kind of like you know, each got about your conscience. You have to you know you have to ignore the pole. All the eldest worked out yet of over the person. You think them it would make. The best president right from with a well depends on Your preference you have between fires and binding right if you're, like I'm relative mood, indifferent between them. No. It's in fact take longer to make a decision and prolong it. Maybe there's a symbol

chance in hell that she can emerge as a compromise between them. Right I mean it's, not crazy, crazy, crazy. It might be crazy, gray, Otto qualifiers of but like yeah. I know it's like we are showing fairly large chance. There's no majority. We really know how that plays out riots that totally not tat crazy to say that hey, I want to be someone else. Someone in my life cited back to me last night, we'll five thirty, each who's, that no one winning is the most likely outcome right now. Reach felt very like ok, wait, somebody who new you work for five, thirty, eight or somebody who didn't yes. So is the real question here who will make it passed the fifteen percent threshold in California and who will make it ass, a fifteen percent threshold in California burning centres? We predict women,

past thresher guy bide, Unwilling Joe Biden is a close now is pretty safe at this point, Even in the polls now they're like pre, South Carolina is of delight a percentage is gonna get undecided in more PETE voters, yeah the lower bound abide ends. Eighty percent range is nineteen percent arrived some but I say then Warren and Bloomberg are very close to fifteen percent and where they get there or not, that's amazing Bloomberg is forecast to win an average of fifteen percent. And more into that. Sixteen worn is that sixteen and others a range there, but that the average, if your Biden or Sanders, how do you want that to play out? Do you want worn and Bloomberg together Fifteen August, I assume, is it if your Biden, you want war and to get about fifteen percent, but not Bloomberg. If you, so yeah if they get. I think I think so. You're just treat them as a collective item

for a change of aren't, employer or and Burg well. Then I went to hang out with her that's woman. Pure love war burg? So if Europe. Bernie, you clearly do not want anyone else to get about fifteen percent if you're buying Islam, ambiguous because, on the one hand, actually lose some of your delegates on either hand. Bernie loses more because you'll probably have more right, and so why doesn't Bernie want Bloomberg to get about fifteen percent because Bloomberg within take delegates that burning we win most of right, because there is not a redistribution of your second choices by so like. If Bloomberg doesn't get about fifteen percent, then it just gets divided between Sanders and by right. So enchanters wins. You know whatever. If its birdie centres, forty Joe Biden, twenty then Bernie is getting toothache. Doug US in California, if warrant comes and get fifteen

and she takes away from that pile which party is getting two thirds so that it is an advantage for, but it got now god I was gonna, ask it Insane question must now I really want you to go out. What have centres are actually kind of meaning by the way. What if Sanders or Biden gets Corona virus? No, because there are, I mean, is I mean this their older candidates? nor touching signal hugging, although many people- oh my god, I'm sure I think I'm thinking about this. What, if that happens, could one of their candidacies go completely down or would people be like okra viruses in their path? I also would they be? Ok, that's so that goes without saying. Well, so sharp live turn their current of recital I

eight of the model kind for the pandemic by wash your hands. But I mean I'm serious, but this like what, if something weird like that happens, the guy who is running corona virus, ever Bob offer Ghak arrive. I was I was texan about this with my friend. If the democratic primary, Santa Bite in Britain Bernie to go up against the general against tromp. Then the chances of some health thing are, you know, but to get us back on track for a second cask, a question about this, this pathetic which of among Biden Bernie, wants what Warner Bloomberg to do well will there be some dynamic further district delegate, where He would want Bloomberg to do better, because Bloomberg would do better in the type of district where biding would be more likely to win delegate's yeah, like Orange County,

that such an over it yeah thinking it it's like posts and more complicated right. On the one hand like you can't do that, ok, it simpler, but as you know, it so funny, isn't there mate first answer during this part gas? I thought to myself. I didn't say it out loud vows like I waiting for the moment where Nay answers the question, just like there's really one way to look at this: instead, Really there are six and a half levels to this and men. Thought he was just gonna. Do it be like our Europe, thinking that this and then it was both simple and more complex. It'd Anna little on between, but there's uncertainty about that to sign it. Not me The simple way is like you, what everyone else say under fifteen percent because you you want more delicate for yourself that only right the cops get away as like there are basically two vectors to wash on tomorrow.

Cecily Tuesday, one of which is Bernie Verses Biden, one of which is kind of Bernie and Biden versus everyone else, and I think of them has been relatively perpendicular to another. Your Bernie, let's say you have a relative. A mediocre night against Biden, but that, foreign and Bloomberg enclosure totally flop, and there never any targets right. You know catches. Survey majority would go up. I say plurality. Chances might go down right. How do you feel about that? How do you feel if you're Bernie Sanders about like winning eight parotid banana majority? You probably feel better about that, if your Joe Biden, you probably if I'm Joe Biden them the he likes me well enough, you're, like a ball enough, Joe Biden, If I get a plurality of any kind I'm gonna get I'm under the regulation. The errors of Bernie like where I don't know well, I think I think, of burning get to plurality is gonna get the nomination, but I think it's a thirty eight to thirty six plurality right

we know that Gaza, but I think Nate Point is a really good one of how much do the other candidates get onto his day. Go a long way towards determining whether anybody is able to reach a majority or it so much. With California and wanting to keep in mind as we get results tomorrow is that California is on Pacific time. They also have vote by male. They also have a complicated way of allocating delegates. So it might be a while before we get results from California, but will have a good idea of how things are going well, probably even end up recording our reaction podcast before we have for results from California. So just keep that in mind and wait move on to the rest of the state's voting on Super Tuesday, but first today's podcast is brought you by simply safe with home security. There ways you can go about protecting your home there

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And the next most important region of Super Tuesday is the South generally Virginia North Carolina Alabama, Tenancy, Arkansas and Oklahoma. So Clare how'd, you describe the the race in the south and, of course, our and says between those states but they're more similar than say. You know our offers. California yeah, Joe Biden has always counted on southern states on Super Tuesday to be a potential trove of delegates for him. You know his campaign chairmen as a black congressmen from the south there, hoping that those more moderate block voters will choose him and he would have run up. The count in those places again by Bloomberg is like a press, a prayer, It's in those states. I believe he was in Alabama over the weekend days ago, I share of an acquaintance from college who lives in Alabama now and she was she was.

Uninstall dumping, like I'm I'm from Bloomberg, which I was like, but so weird to see. Like you know, it's the organic percolating of of probably a lot of advertising and stuff like that. The south, I think, is tougher for Bernie Sanders, so Biden is more heavily favor In the southern states there are timid Felix out there s area there is, I was just sit. There are different flavors of south, so you know someplace light North Carolina is more colon quote New South, where it has more of those sooner. Those those cities, college towns. What is it the research triangle where perhaps there will be more favourable to Sanders?

that kind of thing for gene is a different kind of south on the topic of Virginia? It's one of those places where Democrats have targeted it pretty heavily for flipping districts in two thousand, a teen and also just kind of getting it squarely in the Democrats column I mean how do we see those newly democratic areas, particularly suburbs voting in the I marry their big question mark. They have generally been good fur Warren embitter such low Bashar, none of whom are terribly strong southern. Late, nor are This would have of momentum. I was dropped out. So it's kind of a question of like is that good for Bloomberg is place where Warren holds on against these two percent of the vote, or are those tackle voters you slip to slip flip both I guessed Abiden. These are people who are like Usually skeptically fairly high news consumption voters,

they're watching cable news they are reading. Newspapers are listening to pipe, so they might be them to say: ok, high, suburban voters, listening to Marco Polo upscale suburbs, because Virginia, which is a rich state might be the ones who might tactically shifted Joe Biden, but that's a big, that's a big wildcard, I would say yeah inaction I think Virginia among all the southern states is poor. The one that maybe centres has the best chance in the other, There are two groups here right, there's does like the Ozark South the Ozark South, though I think, almost argument and western state, but will save that for further we ve had fight too many paragraphs tigers. Those states Tennessee Arkansas Sanders Oklahoma have not been pulled very much at all. In theory, they're kind of their the wider south and there like neither particularly great for because her a little bit too conservative, but for buying there s a pretty

Why right yeah? You know our model actually has Bloomberg melted, whether because you might win one of those who, like twenty percent of the vote, something right and because the cap has not spend as much focused there, Maybe the advertising goes a longer way, then in Virginia Carolina and by the way- pulse was gonna get on if there is a big by search for these are kind of not really in their control right. If I were a poster, I would not want anywhere in the South accept Texas. To have a pole showing anyone other than Joe Biden ahead, which is how to protect Joe Biden Gonna, like win oh states, but like I wouldn't feel great about a Virginia pull from weeks ago showing sanders up for or something but ok, Ozark, South Arkansas. Oklahoma, Tennessee. Well Tennessee. I think bite in intense. He has a higher share, a black voters and male temporary white ray it's a committed itself. Yes,

Let's call those more more of a three way race between Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, Deep, South Alabama, obviously North Carolina to a lesser extent, Biden heavily favoured and then begin yeah, you know, is probably somewhere between those two groups for for various reasons or right. Let's move on because we ve got a lot of other regions to discuss so what power, through the West, Utah and Cholera any questions are Santer Sanders country. I can we move on well- and I say recital? Let me say five weddings, but a long, three different arrest, re, perfect or two, Tomorrow is cell phone in some ways the theoretical Bernie stay right, you know at the same time loves it taken labor at the same time that you is this time for your beer metaphor, Montgomery, Michael Boot, At the same time, its very wealthy enough,

girl laughed craft beer craft beer so could be like a good Elizabeth warrants. Issued in a little bit better, I get to pick one nigh Massachusetts state for warrant to win Colorado. Maybe Colorado Right, Utah, is very young electorate. Actually, the democratically tar a progressive, it would seem very good for Bernie, but I both states, by the way as his Minnesota, our having pray, areas for the first time are usually cock estates, and so that might make them a little bit harder to to model may the primary electrodes lot different than the carcass electors, where the cholera gave the world both Michael Bennett and hit Cooper. Jonathan upper wait. Why third kind of similar? Now I know that my man they're, like it's just weird, that you have come to interchangeable people, come from

I love Colorado, speed all Colorado's be beautiful, also no shadow who can make an upper Bennet, their great people, gray public's heart, never state draft. We show, oh, my god but that also behind the pay. While moving on to the northeast, we have main Vermont and Massachusetts made over my you're going to say there is I've already called it. Even reverse you produce. They happen. Massachusetts, wait! Don't maybe a weird aim is the Kentucky of New England may by the way, potential first want rapid, corn and eight. Maenas weird stay. I would not necessarily out on I mean it's obviously very Bernie, ish ripe alike? It's some kind of unexpected things primaries before we actually a burning with only a seventy percent chance of winning main arrived. So I retract I do, however, already call the primary for Sanders in Vermont, I'm fine projects that Bernie Sanders has won the guy's we'll get in trouble with David

decision to outsource varied. That was that literally thousands of earth child easy standards that was humor and parity, a thing that we sometimes during this podcast Massachusetts making generously Massachusetts. Anybody want to make a call. Why has been ahead in the polls? They're not by much has been said, the poles they get a big rally in Boston Pablo Weekend, pop quiz, hot shot. Why is but which are more of a favorite Minnesota than wars and worn is en masse because a Minnesota club is Heaven the Poles and in Massachusetts. War is behind. It knows I'm asking why their popularity sunk after her first election right have. We talked about this before how like Warren performed worse in her reelect just then, and so maybe it's just

One is just lassie populate the residual. If I'm closure is like an overwhelmingly popular, I think when you become a national figure, as a centre of may be yeah, that's her and publish our really has become a national figure. I mean be nice here, and that brings us to Minnesota, where this is when they get uses Minnesota acts AMOS author. That is not a Minnesota MAX. You say the state name, like a poseur Minnesota yeah, soda, you say, namely how do you know it Atta Minnesota, Nevada, Minnesota VAT. I had so much Nevada Nevadas about an about everybody happy now leave me alone my God, how do you start getting real? How do you see the countries both to eighty eight are caught her eyes to live there? You can say multiple ways I venture to pen cultural country cut from the UK. That's that yeah, if you're arab, if you

Non Arab and you live there. You probably say cutter or Qatar or Qatar if your British, how can I just say in general, you should pronounced things the way their their meant to be paid. Without a doubt, but people who correct other people's mess pronunciations We are no better than like the people who are like did you may? Actually it was an ounce Nevada actually was its Frankenstein's monster. You know what it's best pronunciation. Did you do it on purpose, misunderstood what I say: mispronouncing Spit Miss I'm not back over, but I corrected. You saw him networks yeah you're an indictment of me. It is so Minnesota No, it's Minnesota the closure or not going to close our. What are the odds are amazing, Amy Club, which has a three and five chance she's a fifty four

percent for the car? Will Moderates Minnesota, reboot they're supposed to do their bit? Having too They will say, ok well Biden, they forbidden why the way heightens economic union and a soda. So what acts rather do is have Clovis our win Minnesota and when you think that standards from getting another w in the press is reproduced, Debbie's verse delegates, because Biden is forecast. Whenever to sixteen percent of the vote. Minnesota is very close to the threshold, and so from Adela perspective. I take it back. They should vote for club a shy, and and assume that she will probably drop out and give her delegates tibetan rail so that yeah so this is, kind of work as lay under the second right. This is kind of what I was trying to get on with the club Bashar verse. Warren question is, but ultimately the answer gets gave his right, which is closer. Super popular Minnesota, warns US popular Massachusetts, but also there's like tat

course, strategic voting, inflection point where I dont think bide in in the polls have it has enough support where would make any sense for strategic voters and said it to say: let's all get behind bite in so then he can be Sanders. I didn't get the delegate benefiting person which he might not otherwise ray. It's very close, actually binding Minnesota. But do you think people are thinking that India, a detail over a private pilots. Let's, let's look at this from the centres campaign point of view right. His campaign is spent I'm on a time in Minnesota am asked you sets to get winter, though state when the dog, its might not be affected, that much right because he wants to kill off the campaign. Of war and unclear Bashar. Any once a narrative that its Bernie but the very worst is Bernie Biden and not our it's a big mess and forty four p m

on states a musketeer mention, because that clearly, like you know, that makes it hard for him, and so I think his campaign has been smart about that and I think I feel that does show that, like winning matters, I think they're probably corrected that assessment. Ok, to wrap things up. American Somalia and Democrats abroad, who begin voting on Super Tuesday. I mean, I ve learned about is up in American Samoa. Well, we know anything else. We have no idea that we are now idea of you were met. Cried abroad, yes, you they're, probably the tat person he likes. You actually maybe likes Warren Alot or like spring sanders. Barbarity is aid. I think he was like a leader of the debt. If you want Democrats abroad Bigley in two thousand and sixteen you know really are heated and this package, do you mean to have you ever met a Democrat while abroad? I took it to mean. Have you ever met a Democrat while abroad. I don't know that I've ever met a democrat, broad coup votes as a Democrat abroad and yeah yeah I've I've

anyway. I've met a Democrat abroad. I haven't met. Democrats abroad is a good, is a good state, so to speak, for burning action is not us. I understand that more collection of people, a diaspora, wizened Democrats abroad estate who fifty first state are so final should hear and then we're gonna rap things up. Who do you think will emerge from Super Tuesday. Looking the best thirty, eight! I then we're really gonna nail. Our coverage live bog, video podcast, I think people and they really happy good answer. Art Nate knock, I mean it gets. If you want to watch CNN and get that answer, get that they're going to kill you NEO watch. You know I've seen it we're here to observe what the american public does with their votes. We don't try to predict things here at five. Thirty, eight Galen news to me are so you take its course

I think yes, the safest bet is probably that Super Tuesday will further solidify the primary is a two way race between Biden and tenders are not leave things there. Thank you ate like a game. I think you're Clare thanks. Thank you MIKE. I thank you and again check out our wives blog on five thirty dot com and also check out neat on ABC News and ABC News live where she'll be giving you all the dates from the very fancy studio upstairs from us making you can you shot out on ABC News to mine? There are lots of people that deserve shouts of. As you did you and me, I can you just imagine they like last year that Virginia Win is really big for sanders. His chances and our model increase to sixty one percent of a majority. A pledge delegate also shut out to make a couple of the autumn. My

and his gang droop Tony Chow, is in the control room then touched by emailing us at podcast at five thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If you're a friend of the show, leave us a rating or review and the Apple podcast store, but not both things were listening and will cease her