Hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast cast iron galen drink and today we're talking all about georgia. In twenty twenty georgia found itself the center of the american political universe, georgians handed control of the senate to Democrats and a pair of dramatic run offs and voted for a Democrat for president. For the first time in twenty eight years, the state also became a target of former president trump's attempts to overturn the election, and then in two thousand and twenty two, the stage for a high stakes face off between competing factions of the g o p. Georgia will once again help determine which party controls the Senate, this fall, but just a handful of years ago, georgia was hardly considered a battleground state in two thousand and sixteen trump won the state without visiting a city

at the time as the republican nominee. So how did georgia find itself in such a prominent place in american politics? It's a question that atlanta journal constitution reporter greg bluestones sets out to answer in his book flipped how georgia turned purple and broke the monopoly on republican power. We're going to discuss it through the lens of three different election cycles: two thousand and eighteen, two thousand and twenty and now two thousand and twenty two in the answer are all kinds of things we like to focus on. Five, thirty, eight changing coalitions and demographics? How campaigns and politicians influence voters and where our politics are headed next greg welcome to the podcast. Thank you so much for having me before we get into the details of your book. I just want to ask you: what is the overarching theory for why georgia flipped in two thousand and twenty as far as you're concerned

Yeah there's a few that's a great question. One is that, of course, the atlanta metro in the suburbs, just like we've seen in so many other parts of the country. The suburbs have I swung decisively from republican strongholds to to democratic bastions We've also seen Democrats lean into a more authentic message, that eluded the party in past years, democrats in georgia used to run as gun in array democrats who were quiet about issues like same sex, marriage or abortion rights and now they've leaned into those messages forcefully along with others like criminal justice reform, another key messages and that has helped energize voters who often skipped mid term elections and even some presidential elections, they ve how poor as in galvanize, energize a base of voters who felt disenchanted disenfranchised as part of the reason. Twenty eighteen, twenty twenty were so competitive is something different

cannot rely on and twenty two, which is the polarizing effective, donald trump, either in the white house or on the ballot it might be. I look forward to that for very democratic twenty three four, but not in I need twenty two and we we've we're still seeing Donald trump's effect on the g o p and his divisiveness in the europeans in georgia, but certainly he helped motivate a lot of voters who use. do you consider themselves, republicans or or who might now consider yourselves independent, who backed the republican party in years past, swung to the Democrats and twenty eighteen, twenty twenty and now they're cut up for grabs. I want to read you an excerpt from the new york times.

It's an analysis by the upshot in the immediate aftermath of vitamins victory in georgia in twenty twenty, and I think it caused some debate. I mostly within the democratic party over how accurate it was a painting, a picture of what had happened in georgia. So this is it Joe Biden put georgia in the democratic column for the first time since ninety ninety two, by making huge gains amongst affluent college educated and older voters in the suburbs around at lana, the blue, share of the electorate fell to its lowest level since two thousand six, based on an optional analysis of newly publish turnout data from the georgia secretary of state in an action marked by a big rise in turn out black turn out, increase to, but less than that of some other groups, that finding suggests that Mr Barton's win in george, may not yet herald a new progressive majority in what was a reliably red state, as democrats still depend on the support of traditionally conservative voters to win state wide doesn't

jive with your understanding of the twenty twenty election in part, because look Democrats did benefit from the fact that tens of thousands of reliable republican voters stayed home in the run offs in particular, and who voted in the past for the job didn't. but also democrat state on message. They did nor joys key parts of their base. There new levels in terms of getting white voter participation, there's It has been the sort of vaunted threshold of thirty thirty. It's black voters reaching a thirty percent share of the electorate and white voters, signaling thirty percent of support for democratic candidates and it kind of got near there in twenty twenty Democrats feel like if they ever reached the state that standard it is a solidly blue stated that point, because voting is still so polarized in georgia along racial lines.

In the real concern for democrats here in georgia in twenty twenty two is that that the presence of of two african american canada on the Senate ballot, herschel walker and rocky warnock, there is a fear that especially older black voters might veer more towards herschel walker. Given concerns about inflation economy. Disenchantment by whatever it might be, and we ve seen some early early polling. That suggests, in particular, older black voters, are argue, getting seventeen eighteen, nineteen percent of support for Hershel walker, it doesn't like a huge number, but enjoy You're, were black voters routinely vote, ninety percent plus for democratic candidates,

even a small fluctuation in voting patterns could have a significant impact on the november election. I think we saw in two thousand and twenty that the democratic party had already begun to lose some support amongst working class voters of color and it was to a significantly greater degree amongst hispanic voters, but I think we saw some movement amongst black men as well. Did we see that in two thousand and twenty in georgia, or is this new in the two thousand and twenty two cycle as pertains to the herschel walker pulling that you're mentioning yeah? I think the bigger concern It is a merging trend, the bigger concern for them. France is not necessarily more black voters. Switching parties in voting for the gnp, although that is a concern its that african american voters would stay home, It's a liberal voters and general would stay home. You know, It cost so much more money. Come so much more resources to try to energy as an emotive, eight persuadable voters, the few swing voters the few middle of the road voters

in these days than it is to try to you, know, get get a base voter, a likely democratic or a likely republican voter to the ballot and camp the made the strategic decision. To mostly, focus on getting the sort of get above. Voters rather than persuade the persuadable and, in this case, democrats are worried that people upset with gridlock upset with Joe Biden's track record Democrats who, voted for him in force who haven't seen the sort of progress they like to see. mark legislation that they hope to see that they were promised on the campaign trail.

Whether they'll stay home and that's going to be a significant factor in the two thousand twenty two election yeah, I mean talking about sort of turnout, vs persuasion. I know this is a constant debate that gets talked about in political analysis, but in georgia. According to five thirty eight analysis: the electorate is particularly inelastic, which means that it is not as likely as perhaps other states other voters to change with the political winds of the nation. It's actually the second least elastic state in the country. But let's get back to twenty twenty two and a second I I still want to focus in on what happened in two thousand and twenty. So you mentioned about thirty thirty. Nine are black voters making up thirty percent of the electorate that happened in two thousand and eight when Barack Obama ran for president, the first time in twenty twenty Biden only achieved twenty seven percent black voters made up twenty seven percent of the electorate in georgia, but still won. However, it seems like in the run up just you know a couple months later,

Rival warnock and John ass ass were more effective action of keeping turn our up and keeping black turnout up. While you know, white voters sort of fell off more particularly white voters, who would have been inclined to you to vote for trumpet twenty twenty election or vote for kelly, leffler or david per day in the run off. Should we look at that and say you know, bite in and then Warnock and us off ran different types of campaigns and sort of showed different blueprints for winning in georgia, Two stories come to. My one is John us off opens that run on phase knowing that have more money than in those inconceivable in just in it, obscene amount of money for his campaign could do something unique with it. He knew he was going to run behind Raphael, warnock Raphael warnock, pulling ahead by a or two he added

images that John ass, I didn't have these it. Let's, let's, let's do something different with with all the money we're getting one of the things he did was pretty much every ad. I think it was every single run off at that came from his campaign were geared toward african american motor. he knew that there could be a drop off and it didn't want any sort of drop off to be fatal to his campaign and closely monitored wide support in his poles and knew that, if white support started, dropping he'd have to pay it back. His ad strategy There are people, including minority leader at the time, chuck Schumer who who might have thought he was crazy and he was like hey do you know you sure you're? This is the right way to go, but he stuck with it and helped them keep his african american participation numbers at a high level. He also pioneered the sort of pilot program that worked and in his case, where again they had so much money they could. They could afford to do unique things and they each doubt to these grit basically created a programme where they had thousands of grass roots just regular folks,

who who they would pay to tap into their cell phones. It's happened to their contacts and just text It's all their contact. Saying hey haven't heard from you know oh, but this is so and so, and I'm voting for John as often here's. Why and it showed not a huge uptick in participation, but a few percentage points and participation from those his voters that were contacted that way by someone they knew they trusted. Someone. friends with someone they went eyes goes into someone they worked with. Who said, Here's why I'm voting for Jon ossoff and that seemed to have you know a positive impact on his camp. and at the counter side the flip side of the coin republicans gave got to the point with Kelly. Leffler were, of course, we had kelly lever and david produce. Appeasing trump at every single level. You know thinking that calling for brad rapids burger, the secretary of state's resignation was enough, then that wasn't enough- and it got to the point where Both of them had to go and call for mike pence to block georgia's electoral college votes on january. Sixth right. That was the sort of ultimate step they have taken right.

The rough it still didn't matter, it still didn't work to appease all of supporters. I talked to one of kelly, levellers top staffers, who said a centrally their internal database is like every campaign. Does all their likely voters and all their potential voters and all the voters that work in a back them and they had one full of tens of thousands of names, of reliable republican voters who voted and passed p run. Some primaries and were seen as locks, but they call the geo p. Not voting in these were basically that die hard trumps supporters who bought into the fire Conspiracy theories, the lies about election fraud in georgia. Who, no matter what the campaigns on no matter, what Did you try to reach out to that block of voters? It was a waste of time. There are spinning their wheels because they were so ingrained in this whole rigged election falsehood. You mentioned that warnock ran ahead of us off. What do you attribute that to

A few things in a major way look also was known in Haiti. We want since twenty seventeen back, then he was unknown right. I mean the time I ever heard generous ives name is when he called me in twenty seventeen. I remember I was in the parking lot of a hospital visiting a friend and he goes hey. My name is Jon ossoff. I've got two hundred fifty thousand dollars in cash commitments, endorsements from hank, Johnson, John Lewis, and I'm running for congress as okay, At that point it was like that is a very long shot, because this was a sea that the income it Tom price had won by more than twenty points, in election just a few months earlier and he was appointed as trump's hhs secretary and and it was the suburbs a republican. Area in the suburbs, and he made it we run of it. But in that campaign which he lost. My four points in that special election pummelled with negative adds. So it was Basically years of negative ads that had built up on jon, ossoff whereas Raphael warnock was new.

To the scene. He was known. You know in business circles and, of course, religious circles in civil rights circles. He was the pastor of ebenezer baptist church. He was in the news, but he didn't have a necessarily a soaring profile and he benefited during the first stage of the special election from basically avoiding head on attacks, I mean there is months they went by where republicans were focusing more on internal feuds between kelly leffler and her republican challenger doug. Don't because they knew that there'd be a run off no matter what a special election with with a number of candidates on the ballot. I twenty there's a scene amount of getting on the ballot, raphia ward was the main democrat in there is no chance appalling, show, chance of him winning the race outright, and so is a battle between Kelly loeffler and doug, collins and Raphael? Warnock was kind of the sideshow to republicans, at least until he

add into the run off, and so he was spirit of a lot of glp attacks. So he was fresh on the scene and he he also had great ad smiths. I mean his ad team kind of crafted this image of him as this puffy vest wearing friendly guy, who had this cute beagle named alvin, who walked, suburban sidewalks white picket fences behind him who talked about you know things that folks agreed with more coronavirus relief, a more balanced. Two budgeting. You know you wasn't talking in these ads about divisive issues. You saw this like friendly guy, who seemed like a buddy to everyone and it's still shaping the twenty twenty two campaign. I mean it just the just. I have a story that just came out a couple of days ago about potential split ticket voters, and one of the republican activists I interviewed was like hey, I'm voting for a herschel,

walker, the geo pino many nominee. But I've got a lot of friends who are voting for Raphael, warnock and its part, because he's coming across as so friendly in the ads and has become such an issue for republicans that in twenty twenty he was branded as this radical liberal and it You know it fell flat and republicans are now saying hey. We might go back to those attacks, but right now the narrative, is he's a good guy, but he supports bad policies. So I think that those were several several the key factors and, of course, also Raphael Warnock african american. It is the first black us senator in georgia, history and that did motivate on the number of black voters who voted for and they might escape

Jon ossoff or who might have held their. You know, begrudgingly voted for janessa, but they were there to vote. They were on the ballot to vote for for for rafale warner. I want to get sort of abstract for a second here and ask you this question. That comes up often in like political theory, one on one classes say in college or something like that, and it's this framework for describing historical events through three different windows right. The first one is through individuals and so individuals in georgia. As case might be you stacey abrams, and I think a lot of democrats, view Biden, success and warnock and allsopp success there as the responsibility of stacey abrams. Ultimately, this second window, it his internal factors say: population and demographic changes. Things like that in georgia and the third window is external forces, which would be like the political environment in the nation trump's.

That didn't see the economy. Things like that. You like think that different activists, journalists, even politicians, have focused on those windows differently. In order to make a point about georgia in reporting out this book. Do you think one of those windows, describes what happened in georgia, so very good question, because I think they're all interconnected. I think the individuals matter, though, in a major way, not just stacey abrams, but the other democrats who can lead the charge here and stacey abrams, certainly was the leading factor in this paving the way, even today, even or even a democratic critics within in georgia, I'm always give her credit for proving you know not just in the two thousand and eighteen election, but also continuing to needle into into into owing to call and pressure national, using her platform to pressure national democrats to pay more attention to georgia, saying that, in her words, georgia's You know it's a lot easier to slot cheaper and easier to compete.

in georgia, then lives in florida and in some of the more expensive states, and especially states with with multiple, very expensive media markets were in georgia. Atlanta is expensive, but you know you can there's a lot of of of much more moderately priced media markets in smaller, mid and mid sized cities in georgia. But also look I mean you know, Democrats couldn't pull up where they did without demographics moving in your direction and that's why Democrats remain confident, even if two thousand and twenty two doesn't go their way, the twenty twenty. Four will still be competitive in twenty twenty six. It's hard to think about that. let's hope, also be given

because they know they're in an uphill battle this year with the with the climate and then and then you add in the trump factor. You add in the fact that that republicans and former republicans and independent voters were sour on trump and in many of those were disillusioned by his his first term in office. I think he needed all three of those pieces together that you so insightfully outlined, but I do think that the people in this case- because you have these figures and who don't along I mean you know. If you have, you don't have a state's abrams type figure in north carolina. For instance, you know there are just you. Dont have those types of democratic figures that have just vaulted onto the national platform and have made themselves a force in the states abrams case, folks, were ready to write her off after her hurt her defeated Brian Kemp in twenty eighteen and yet as camp himself, a joke to me on a helicopter ride in middle south georgia. You know he does why all my opponents get more famous than I do right

save those unable to elevate her platform after two feet and who knows what will happen? in two thousand and twenty do in the aftermath. If she does, if she doesn't pull off a victory against Brian Campbell, if she's able to maintain that, but certainly after twenty eighteen, you know being quartered by chuck Schumer to to give the state of the union rebuttal begged, basically to run for us Senate and then, given the stature. You know a recruit vetted for vice president and then given the stature and using that platform to fight to flip georgia. And you need that and of course you need this army of activists and volunteers donors and that that is still helping to make georgia a competitive state to this day, to the extent that it was stacey abrams roadmap that contributed to fucking georgia. What was that road map, because I think, there's even debate about that- that some people say oh she's, a true true, progressive and she's, proving the point that progressive can win and can be even in the

deep south and for others will say like I don't know where she got that label from she's. A pretty pragmatic person who runs on popular issues and sort of leaves the unpopular stuff to the side and that, like more than anything, she's registering people to vote you know, she would probably say both. I know it's a cop out but she's very progressive and uncertain issues right when it comes to criminal justice overhauls when it comes to in abortion right and issues the guns issues again that not so long ago. Not not. This is we're not talking about decades ago, during the nineties, Sixtys and seventys I mean, Candidates for governor right before in twenty fourteen and ken it's for us senate candidates for statewide office routinely label themselves. Nra Democrats, they didn't want to pick a fight with an array interfere with guns. They don't want to lose campaigns based on second amendment, whereas we this wholesale shift with her campaign Two thousand and eighteen, where democrats were suddenly embracing issues that they stay away from same time she has carved out a

magmatic streak as a state legislature as the as the state's top democratic house member and the in the georgia legislature, over year over years she was known as a pragmatist. In some cases, I am. She worked with russia wiggins, for instance, on this bill that ended up at rolling back hopes. We have a scholarship called the hope, scholarship. The gifts that I that I benefited from that gives free college tuition for students who maintain a b average it's proving to be too popular for its own good and it was running out of money to just continue giving all the benefits that the folks like me got you know years, and robust guns had the votes to push through more string changes and she still didn't love the compromise that she came up with that they came up with, but roll back, some of the more stringent restrictions on an excursion things like that. You know that became big issues in the twenty eight in primary with her in another state lawmaker, name: Stacy, haven't you know

It showed that she and she has a pragmatic streak, and frankly, if she wins one that she'll have to employ the legislature. That's going to continue to be republican making all sorts of big promises about about initiative just expanding medicaid but giving teachers eleven thousand dollars pay ranges giving law enforcement officials raises giving billion dollar worth of tax refunds to georgians. All these things, you'd have to work with the state legislature to accomplish you know. If she wins, there won't be a. They won't be in a mood to bend over backwards to help her jimmy claire in factory. It's current forecast, we share of Brian Campbell and eighty six percent chance of winning reelection, and I think that matches what the conventional wisdom looks like on the ground as well. I mean do you have any further insight into the dynamics of the gubernatorial.

and why it seems at this point like it's comes to lose look. This is this is something I could never have imagined, but david reproduce challenge did Brian Kemp has only strengthen his hand, and back in december or even well, even before that, when David Perdue is rumbling about running. I looked at this It's a toss up, Donald trump's has been georgia used to be, for republicans at least used to be basically a golden ticket and you is very well known there. Rockstar. Among republicans, I mean I don't want understate it, but I'd go to events and republican events and David Perdue would get the biggest selfie line. He'd get the loudest ovations. He was treated. as this like superstar figure, in a way that even baffled him, because when he ran back in twenty fourteen, he was the outside

or who no one seem to even know or record or acknowledge, and then suddenly you know a couple of years in office and he was the superstar. Meanwhile, Brian Kemp was getting booed at republican events. Not just like you know, die hard trump events, but in a little county meetings in rural georgia, where he was once he was being booed. So David were got into the race promising to unite the republican party had of november. He dead united against him. In for Brian Kemp, and now Brian Kim enters he he to the right on issues, he might have moved to the right on some of these issues anyway, but he basically channeled all sorts of republican energy, the legislative session, towards a number of of of sweeping changes. in one of these alone could have dominated your typical georgia legislative session, but he pulled off victory after victory after victory,

even in the face of skepticism from from fellow republicans, who I knew didn't person support some of these issues, the speaker of the house of of georgia, for instance, who wasn't a huge fan of Brian, kept a couple years ago rally behind the got in mine and ended up supporting legislation in hopes of bolstering Brian Kim's case in the republican primary and we're talking about a massive expansion of gun rights that in Georgia that rollback of a permit carries call permitless, carry we're talkin legislation that base of the pave the way for a band of transgender else playing in high school sports, we're talking a complete overhaul of education policy model. After what happened in virginia with sea artie,

in all those republican buzzwords and we're talking. You know a huge outlay in public funds to give teachers pay raises, and public employee pay raises. All sorts of feel. Good efforts based on Georgia has a record surplus, so some key changes that helped him win. A fifty Two point: primary victory over David Purdue puts them basically with a mandate of job you in the ruling party. Most recent poll, I've seen came out just the other day. And showed him with ninety five percent of republican support, something that we would never have imagined just a few months ago, with him being at the top of donald trumps target lest his enemy less right. Now he's at ninety five percent of recovery sport, so there's very little question about whether or not he has a mandate with within the gp and a lot of independents who You know that that Paul I mentioned, show that among independents about doing stacey abrams by about fourteen points, it's a lot of middle of the road voters who

either want to reward him for standing up to trump because he rejected trump's attempts to overturn georgia's election twenty or just simply happy with the way things are going in georgia, because our in oh there's, of course, there's inflation and, of course, there's economic uncertainty and scarcity of of products and and high energy, It's about the same time. Unemployment rates here alone and folks are. He is making the sort of his economic platform the fact that he decided to reopen georgia's economy even against donald trump and they get em with lots of democratic criticism way back in march April of of twenty twenty. So there's that in an ant and of course, We talked earlier about how John us off trailed warnock in part because he was pummelled with his years, more of of sort of negative baggage on him from glp attacks

stacey abrams has been the top target of state republicans since two thousand and sixteen two thousand and seventeen you know if you were running for dog catcher in. rule georgia. You were running and stacey abrams right, so she's got that weighing her down as well, so That's one reason, or several reasons why Brian Kemp's feeling pretty comfortable right now and just a backup, the five thirty aids, a forecast, stacey abrams camp herself says: hey we're we're an uphill battle we are. We are the underdogs, do not underestimate Brian Kemp, because there's a sort of complacency that they fear, among especially in an donor, the donor, based on side of georgia who see that she's setting all these records and and all over the media and in frankly, they're. Not seeing that here right Democrats here very squeamish about this race. They know it's not an uphill battle and you can

with the campaign strategy as well. You know every to every week it seems like Stacey abrams is outlining a new proposal, getting lots of headlines for it. Brian Kemp You know he's respond to those proposals, but he's in no rush to outline his twenty. His second term platform hasn't said a word or a specific word. He's talked about in general. He'd, keep you know, he'd keep the stay the course, but he has an outline of specific broad proposal for a second term. Yet no rush to do so because pull show him in a commanding position right now. Today's podcast is brought to you by shopify

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methods and effectiveness stay focused on what's important to you with noom weight. Psychology based approach sign up for your trial today at noon, dot, com, slash politics, that's n, o o m dot com, slash politics to sign up for your trial today, contrary to the governor's race, the Senate race seems genuinely competitive. Our forecast currently gives warnock of forty five percent chance of winning reelection. I think that will actually change once we update with the latest poll out of georgia, which was an a r p poll that was released, this morning that showed worn out with actually the slightest lead over herschel walker, while at the same time showing Biden with only thirty four percent approval rating. In georgia, we talked a little bit about how warnock has a sort of nice guy image in georgia which works to his advantage. So my question here is more with such an important

raised on the line for republicans. Why did they nominate herschel walker, who you know new scandals have come out since he was nominated, but when, at the time of his nomination they knew that one can obviously wasn't inexperienced candidate, but perhaps like ok granted. That might not matter all that much in today's political environment, but he also has accurately sins of domestic abuse. Shady business dealings are now. He also has reports that he lied to his campaign about having secret children and the race wasn't even competitive like why. How did the european georgia let this happen? This is a great question because even before he got in the race and we're talking about months before he got in the race. We knew about some of these issues and will report erratic behavior violence against women. Women, including his his ex wife, exaggerate of his business record lies about academic experience, all these things were,

we're not just suddenly found right. We've been reporting on them since last august last last the summer before you even got in the race the fact that he lived in texas for decades and only moved here last year right, but I think, goes to a couple of things. First, is look there's a rare alliance between the mainstream republican, our base and donald trump's faction bit behind partial walker. You know not only did trump quickly come out and endorse before walker before got there, I think it was February where he tweeted, or he sent an email saying that herschel walker will be unstoppable. If you ran for us senate- and he has a full endorsement, so that froze the field because of your kind of a congressman buddy Carter, he's a south georgia coastal georgia congressman who is seriously thinking about getting the race and could raise some money and had a power had a base of support, but if your him- and you know that

but trot, was going. You against. You use your steering clear same with a lot of other big named David Perdue, for instance, quickly decided he wasn't going to run again. Kelly loeffler another vanquished, you a senator, also decided that she wasn't gonna go who try to go challenge: herschel walker, but I think even beyond that alliance and even a boy on trump support. But it's hard to sort of explain this to folks who don't live in georgia the hirshhorn, walkers name. Recognition here is not just a sport star. He is something above that and for people like me who, who I was not born when he was playing at university in georgia, and my parents are not huge football. And I did not grow up, you know steeped in u a footballer, but even so I grew up. Hearing herschel walker's name into me like, still synonymous as a georgia boy and as You geographic, like herschel walker, equals legend.

It's just something above you. You know that name, recognition and, and that and the his ties to to you js greatest moments, and just even if you're, not a huge fan, just as ties to georgia. Sports in general, I gave him this name recognition boost that very good candidates, very smart republicans, very able contenders said. I can't I can't go against this, and so the only names that showed up- and there was you- know- they're no slouches- a guy named- sadler. Who is actually the the student body? President of? U, when I was the editor of the of the student newspaper, former navy seal. I mean again no slouch at all, has a long history of working. The trump white house, very good campaigner, ran a very good campaign. He got in the race one of trump's top surrogates in the black community. calvin king, who often winter african american can

genes and events. I'm talking of boosting the former president, I'm here and in the biggest name, was gary black. Who was a three time state officer he ran, for he was the he is. The agricultural commissioner of Georgia has garnered millions of votes. I mean he knows, has success on the statewide he ran as well and get each of them got in the race, knowing that it was a longshot. Each of them go raise. Knowing that you do not feel battle any genuine the race. Knowing all those issues that we talked about about iraq, pay, violence lies, falsehoods, conspiracy theories bumbling statements on the campaign trail, but herschel walker got an injured. The campaign poll showed him at seventy even the percent I think, the lowest. He wasn't any pull that I saw was kind of close to like low sixties, never really in doubt and ran his campaign. As such. You know, despite stories that we wrote in the other outlets road.

About these vulnerabilities at first. His opponents were wary of bringing them up and wary of attacking then it was only gary black who would who would do that then a few there's got in, but have the money to put it put that message out there, and it is so there there tax only went so far and we would cover them, but they weren't plaster all over tv and hershel walker never felt worried enough to even name his opponents. He never! You know. I never heard him say a bad word about gary. or any of the others. And, of course, that's the biggest signal to me at all when it went when you see a candidate start to start to, you know, push back or attack back. You know that they're in trouble, herschel walker, never felt the pressure at all never did conventional campaigning, never went to the big forums in the big. You know fish fries and all the other things that people like me cover and that all the candidates go to never did debates because he didn't have to and

and he ended up getting a little bit less. The just one of the surprises to me was: he had kemp actually outdid them in the primary, but he still won with a personal walker, still garnered about seventy percent of votes. He is sort of easy victory, but now is the trouble right now now rafale does have the money he has more than twenty million dollars in the bank right now. So he does have the money to go push messages about about these issues and what he's starting to do is Not even talking about his campaign is not even pushing on adds about the violence its women in these other issues that could be more damaging to him. There are starting with hey. He just you know not so long ago he gave this baffling interview where he said a secret magical spray. He kills covered right. So they're they're going with the the this narrative, which is a real legit thing that herschel walker says lies a lot and says it makes statements that make no sense and he has done

on the campaign trail, you know, there's there's an example. What about every other week of just sometimes at softball questions from friendly interviewers and fox news? Saying: hey? What would you do about about guns, and he gives a statement about you- know social media platforms needing needing the better watch, men and women like things like that, where even his most ardent supporters like? What did he just say? It sounds like Hershel. Walker might have even while not primary, without trump's support who knows, but he was actually sort of hurt, though didn't hurt any was actually a rare win for tromp in georgia's primaries, which served as well. You know something of a I dont know like focal point for this republicans of a war that we ve seen since twenty twenty election. In terms of

or being a divide in the party that trump has in large part created over like who supports him to the nth degree and who just generally supports him, but you know trump's and dorsey's in georgia. Primaries ultimately did really poorly. You described. Why perhaps kept it? So while you know he he knighted republicans around a conservative agenda that just sort of avoided the you know election stealing question and the election stealing. Why? But why did terms other endorses, do so poorly as well yeah, and indeed I think you I agree with what the point you made at the beginning, which was hershel walker. It didn't hurt him, but hershel walker would have won without trump's endorsement. We can never prove that, but I I would I would. I would make that argument and the other big win that the trump slate had was bert jones, who is a candidate for lieutenant governor, but he also put millions of dollars in his own money into running for lieutenant governor

beat back eight, a republican and by the way in georgia, as in many other states. It's not like the other reply, running, including governor kemp, were were forcefully. You know opponents of a donald trump. They were all very. supportive of his policies, and many of them were very supportive of him himself, so like this: never trump coalition verse drop. It was just the trump endorse candidates, verse other candidates who still like truck or or like this policies. But why did the others lose? You know this baffled me because I've of course cover these down ticket races and no all these down ticket. You know incumbents and candidates for years it's really hard to get georgians interested in the race for insurance. Commissioner, on the november ballot, let alone on a primary ballot right you'd have these candidates who got in at the very last minute. There's this guy named Patrick Witt, and there was this big had domino effect. This guy patrick Witt, who no one in georgia there ever heard of who is running for congress and

donald trump decided he liked this other guy, who just had just switched parties to run for to run in that seat for congress, and so he convinced Patrick, went to run for commissioner, has said and endorse you. The guy gets in in February? Simply is only argument against an incumbent republican named John king, basically exactly who the g p wants he's a mexican american he's. He would be the first mexican american elected because he's to a statewide constitutional office in georgia, history. Gives a little bit of diversity to a slate of Republicans is mostly all white man's a few outliers, but mostly all white men from comes and endorse this guy, the no one's ever heard of who doesn't have any money whose entire message was trump The same thing happened in the attorney general's race and intuitive degree. The same thing and in the secretaries dates race where congressmen jody highs got in the race tried to coast It wasn't doing a lot of media events and doing a lot of high profile role.

she was going to. You know party breakfast on the weekends but wasn't out there making his argue every single day in a in in a high profile way All of them got not just defeated, but humiliated. I mean that the challengers to attorney general chris Carr and insurance. Commissioner John king lost by about fifty points right Entire platforms again word trump trump trump trump trump and it showed like. Hey, even if, even if that would work they needed, they needed means of dollars by that message, when the polling that we I often saw showed especially internal polling showed that a lot of republican voters- Not only did they have no idea who these challenges were. They had no idea that they were endorsed by trump So, even if it would have swayed votes, they just didn't have the money, together in from the get go. I knew that hey these you're getting in these races in February, where the incumbents have been running for years you know it's going to take a lot to get georgians you know

engine beyond the senate and governor race that we had been writing about four, so often talking about nonstop to get them involved in an excited about an attorney general race against against your mainstream republicans. work out there opposing donald trump. I mean Chris Carr, the attorney general and John king. The insurance commissioner had done nothing to alienate the trump base. The only you know that red mark on their on the report card was the fact that they were allies of governor kemp. So this was totally part of Donald trump's revenge, tour against Brian Kemp. In your book, you write about the tension within the geo grp dating back to perhaps Brian Kemp, appointing Kelly wife lara to the vacant senate seat instead of Doug Collins who trump wanted. Obviously, we all saw how that played out. Doug collins ran against her colorful ultimately won, but then lost the run off and then just the whole thing broke open and the

after the two thousand and twenty election with trump trying to get broad ravensburger to find votes to overturn the results of the election in georgia. It all came to a head earlier this year in the primary. Is it fair to say that, to the extent that there was a sort of like civil war within the g o p in georgia, that it's over it's settled the you mentioned. Ninety five percent of republicans back brand now support brien camper have a favorable view of Brian Kemp, like is has been resolved, look will trump still dog republicans, you know, could he still? I the whole gp election machinery. Yes, you know there has been I have reported on this more recently, Kemp's team has reached out to trump's team and hey you. Well. Everyone knows that he was going to wake up one day and say I suddenly, like Brian Kemp right, the guy, the former president even said

he'd rather see stacey abrams as governor Brian Kemp, so you. Didn't just color flip a switch and say like the guy, but they Can we have just a a truce at a taunt? I know what the best word is. Can you just tone down, focus on other perceived enemies and just lay off Brian Kemp, and so far you seem to do that. So you know, and because no they're, not in the clear and that more stuff could certainly happen, that would they would complicate brian camps, real action and threaten his support. Among republicans, but at the same time, he's managed to his manage that relationship. So far in sight. things for him is a good thing. You know donald trump, not talking about georgia. And focusing on wyoming is is wherever is a very good thing for him, I would say that his is has helped seed the ground right now. Is it over now, you know a lot can still happen puts, and

and democrats are going to seize that if they can, even if they don't do it publicly, they will. They will point to the ongoing geo abusive, a war, but right now things seem kind of quiet. I think Democrats, dr georgia, to learn lots of lessons about how to wage and win elections having recently flipped at but equally interesting lie in all of this. What lessons has the georgia g o p learned about how to wage and win elections in georgia after the sort of crazy handful of years for the state? One of the big lessons is, you know: imitation is the best form flattery and republicans. I've learned from states abrams efforts and waiting that a note is much as tv ads and all that stuff is still important. Its building apparatus early and they ve got a very formidable job. I guess this is to go toe to toe with stacey abrams in an infrastructure.

Worms, has eighty full time staffers right now in her campaign and she's got, you know, offices all over the state and and infrastructure all over the state. I should say instead of the democratic party of georgia, kemp can't rely on the georgia glp, because they're a mess right, No, so instead, the governor and his allies are creating their own infrastructure and they've been creating. It he's been running, reelection since the day he took office, he put a about raising appeal out I no a day or to two after he took office, saying we got to stop stacey abrams in twenty twenty two, and this was way back in twenty nine and nineteen. They realise that, yes, it is important, as is the showering the If money is it's also important to have those door knockers day to target voters smartly and to go after what with to bill what they see as the red which is republican voters just a stage. When, after disenchant

are just illusions. Voters who did not unknown midterms but might have voted in the presidential election campaign is trying to do the same thing in trying to give conservatives. Isn't to go vote by citing some of those legislative issues that I talked about earlier. But whether it be in the education overhauls aimed at directing how teachers talk about race and gender, or whether it be gun expansions or, of course now, you know in a more quiet way talking about anti abortion legislation that he signed in twenty nineteen democrats are talked about for a while howard, Stacey abrams has national ambitions she's been upfront about that she's been on this podcast talking about how she would like to be president someday reasons that we've done at five. Thirty eight shows that, ultimately, if you do lose, two consecutive elections for senate governor or president you're quite unlikely to ultimately go on to be successful, we'll see what happens.

If we're not wins the Senate race, I think there is going to be a lot of attention on him and his potential national ambitions. What has he set about those? Or what do you know about those, regardless of what he said? Yeah, it's a very good point because all you're right, a lot of attentions abrams, but to other leads. You know national democratic figures in georgia. Be that john us off the first you as you, a senator in georgia, histories wise thirty, two thirty three now and and then Raphia warnock, who, even before this, had the platform of being the senior pastor of Martin luther king Jr, church and atlantic right. So I think all three of them will be names that we talk about well into the this decade in the next and in some former fashion. I would count any of them out from being potential of running mates in running themselves, for the white house in the foreseeable future sure I can imagine how that will all play out, but

Senator Warnock is not. It has no luck. Ambition and senator, so I think I think that they will be made it stays on the data as long as they stay in office- and you know no, no unforeseen scandal or controversy happens. I think we'll be talking about them for a very long time. It would not be surprised to be hearing that that there are presidential ambitions for either, though senators down the line,

Not we're not talking about twins, revolt or anything like that, but much down much further down the line I mean who knows how pronounced, but we have the forecasts or I won't ask you to speculate on where georgia goes politically from here, but I do and ask you. You've mentioned a couple of times the amount of money that has flooded in to georgia, and I think this trend sort of started with John also have special election in georgia's sixth, that was the most expensive house race in american history. At fifty, five million dollars was spent in total by candidates, politicians outside groups, and then of course, in that pair of run offs in january of two thousand and twenty one, nearly a billion dollars in your budget. Your say: nine hundred thirty million dollars was spent in total by both sides in those two races. How does that kind of massive influx of money into geo politics change the state sort of it's politics?

and how the parties behave. You and you get to a point of diminishing returns, pretty quickly to write when, when there's back to back to back to back democratic ads on tv, which happens when campaigns are spending, big bucks in remote markets in alabama and tennessee florida because they have a little tingle in rural georgia right already. We have two hundred and twenty five million dollars either spent or reserve and airtime in georgia through november I mean a quarter of a billion dollars. Essentialism looked a reserved in georgia, with only one really expect in a one expensive, medium, because the rest are relatively. You know good deals, and it's just going to grow so I'll always look to what the candidates do. That's innovative! It's different! You know whether it be hearing. Or staff, whether be building lasting infrastructure, because the tv stuff is important, I get it, but it you start

I have a neutralizing effect where people just kind of tune it out or it doesn't affect them as much, but it's the it's the unique stuff that that candidates do like what I mentioned. As of earlier with trying something new because look You know we're no longer in the situation where not so long ago. If a candidate, you know how to bad badass or something in georgia. That was that they had good chance to like hit the window cuz they didn't have tens of millions of dollars. They only have maybe a million and now in canada, to put a bat out and quietly pull it back, because it's not working and then tried twenty different ads, because they've got that. That's fine, but you know it's the quieter programs initiatives that these candidates are are do and that is again the state that the most closely divided state, eleven thousand votes, basically divided Joe Biden and donald trump in two thousand and twenty.

Even the smallest fluctuations in voting patterns could have major impacts in november. So I think it's it's it's it's it's those things I'll be watching out for so much the innovation. You know the quieter efforts by these these candidates. That could really make a big difference. Alright, well, we'll have to see what happens, but let's leave it there for now. Thank you Greg. Thank you for having me greg. Boosting is the author of the book flipped how georgia turned purple and broke the monopoly on republican power. My name is gail and rick. Tony chow is in the virtual control room, Chadwick Matlin, as our editorial director and Emily, even as key as our intern. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast, at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening, and we also use them for