Emily Ekins, Cato Institute director of polling, previews the path to 270 for Trump and Biden on 'Fox & Friends.'
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Which states will be key to either of the guys winning who here to break it down? Emily Eakins joins us from the d dot c area Emily good morning to you good, to be with you good morning, Steve its good to have you. You know the Trump campaign is confident that they are going to win Florida and thats. One of the question Mark States, part of the puzzle to figure out who is going to win. Ultimately, its going to come down to Pennsylvania. Both camps are staking everything it seems like on the Keystone state. Yes, Pennsylvania really is kind of the grand prize state in this election. Both campaigns really need to win the state which is rich with electoral votes. If they are going to win Steve right, but then again we hear it from the Trump campaign. They say you know Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania. Those are the three up for grabs.
We have swing state ideas, so we will have you fill in the blank. What if Biden would win how to get to two hundred and seventy for Trump? He would need to win all of what we call the toss up states. These are the states Florida North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Georgia. All states that he won in twenty sixteen but polling shows too close within the margin of error, to really call it for one state or the other. He would need to win all the toss up, States, Pennsylvania, Grand Prize and hold on to Arizona which is leaning Biden in this election, but it has voted republican in every election since one thousand nine hundred and fifty two clearly within the realm of possibility that Trump holds on to Arizona, Steve thats interesting. I was talking to a couple members of the Trump team yesterday and they said they feel that they have got Arizona in the bag.
So that would be interesting to see what happens now. What if President Trump wins, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, then what would Joe Biden have to do to win so for Biden? He would just need to flip one of those toss up states just win Florida or Ohio or North Carolina and then hold on to Pennsylvania, obviously, and then or excuse me, wouldnt win Pennsylvania in that scenario, but then he would need to hold onto the rest of the rust belt states, Michigan and so forth, and then he would need to win some of those purple states like Arizona and Colorado which right now are trending in his camp Steve. Ultimately, what today is all about for both campaigns, Emily they are both trying to convince the people who have not early voted. You have got to go out and vote either today if your state still allows early voting or you have got to go out and vote in person tomorrow.
The Trump campaign feels as if they have a one million person advantage, for instance in Minnesota, they feel like they have got four hundred thousand people advantage in Michigan and they have got about fifty thousand people advantage in the state of Wisconsin. So if those people show up tomorrow, they feel Trump could win. It certainly is within the realm of possibility. Another important point is Biden is under performing in those states exactly under performing to where Obama and Hillary were during this part of the campaign, and so I think that is why exactly Donald Trump is really focusing on Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Another reason is that these rust belt states have a higher share of voters without college degrees, and polling has shown that these are precisely the voters that disproportrtionately vote for Trump over his political opponents. So I think that this is why Biden is probably under performing in these states. While
is he over performing in states like Arizona but that traditionally have gone Republican, Steve, thats, really interesting, because the Biden people have been saying you need to early vote, but now because Joe Biden is under performing Emily now they are saying you know what we said that last week now we need you to show up tomorrow right early right now. The turnout figures are a little bit surprising for the Biden campaign. They are finding not as seventy eight african, american and latino american voters, as they had hoped voting early. What they have seen is a surge of white voters without college degrees and based on past voting behavior of these groups. You know, noncollege white voters tend to trend for trump, and so I think this has a lot of people in the Biden campaign worried, especially in states like Michigan and Florida, where they are really depending on turnout. So they are waiting for election day to see if those numbers change Steve all right. Great conversation, Emily Ekins from Kato.
Transcript generated on 2020-11-02.