Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly who accurately predicted the 2016 presidential election claims President Trump will win again in 2020.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
President Trump we had polls
come out very strong polls
Trafalgar. He called it very
accurately last time
that were two up points in the
Michigan in the Trafalgar poll,
which is a very accurate poll
PETE President Trump touting
polls of our first guest this
morning,
one of the only pollsters who
accurately predicted two thousand and sixteen
election.
He says the president is on the
way to win re election on the
shy voters.
Robert. Thank you so much for
being here.
What are you doing? What did you
do in twenty? Sixteen, and what are you
doing this year to other
pollsters are not doing that?
Make your polls accurate.
Well, we are employing
methods. What is called the shy
trump effect or the social
desirability and thats peoples
unwillingness to express an
opinion if they think well make
them look at in some light to
the person asking the question
that is not favorable and it is
in way we do it with insuring a
little more an themty.
We use a mix of all kinds of
digital platforms as well. Quick
questions.
People participate are some
of the keys in doing that.
Will
PETE shorter poll questions so
people dont hang on the line,
larger sample sizes,
the mainstream pollsters dismiss
what you do they get it wrong.
Do they know that theyre
missing these voters that youre
talking about
I dont know the answer to
that.
It seems rather strange to me
they havent learned any
lessons.
They say they corrected things.
That is nonsense about adjusting
their sample for education
weighting. Yet when we have
again in place in Florida,
Gilliam Desantis race last
year, two thousand and eighteen, they were all wrong
again,
we were the only ones right too
PETE. The governors race in
Florida
take one place in Michigan.
It has Trafalgar race in
Michigan President up one percent
real, clear politics. The famous
aggregator has the president
down eight points.
That is a nine point gap.
You have a strong Senate
candidate there in John James,
when you look at a race like
that in particular. Are you
confident that the presidents
ahead there right now?
You know I really am.
I look at three factors.
One. There is a lot of folks who
are absolutely enthralled with
John James as a candidate.
He is also kind of coming in as
outsider, which makes his message
mesh very well, giving some
strength to the ticket.
Also, we cant there is no one
that Trump can be more
appreciative of than Gretchen
Whitmer, because she is
single handedly created
environment, where people in
Michigan back to business, and
that is also an advantage for
the president. There
PETE yeah
a lot of key contrasts there in
Michigan.
Listen, I for one hope your
polling is correct.
I think people should be paying
a lot of attention to it as POE
Es toddies missing it
Robert. Thank you. So much for
being here
pay attention to the polls.
Transcript generated on 2020-10-25.