Jedediah with election day only sixteen days away, Americans are voting early at record pace more than twenty six million voters have already cast their ballots, representing nearly one slash five of the total vote in twenty sixteen. So what does this mean for both candidates here to discuss real, clear politics, cofounder and President Tom Bevin, Tom, pretty big numbers when it comes to early voting? What does it all mean? I dont think we know we are in the middle of a pandemic. Are both sides particularly Democrats urged their voters to turn out early both going to the polls in person during early voting periods, but also sending t benefits. These are early voters who would show up on election day. Otherwise it is tough to get a handle. What this means, who is benefiting from the record early turnout that were seeing Jedediah? You mentioned Democrats and the Republicans and the distinction there look at numbers, mail in ballots by party registration Democrats,

five point: nine million returns, Republicans two point: six million returns. That is a pretty big distinction there. Some Republicans would look at that and become concerned. You said that is note necessarily a reason for them to worry. Can you broaden and explain a little more why that might be the case. Sure all the polling data shows that Democrats, you know by twenty or thirty points have suggested they are going to turn out early and mail in their ballots use mail in balloting as their preferred option. This time around Republicans, two slash three of three slash, four say theyre not doing that they will show up on election day. There will be a red wave in terms of Republicans. Turning out to vote, meanwhile Democrats will have bank ad lot of their vote early via various options. So I think Republicans. Actually some of these states feel pretty good where they are in terms of their early vote again, theyre, counting on a big turn out on election day Jedediah. I want to take a look with you, Tom, at three important

states, battleground states comparison between two thousand and sixteen and now lets look at Michigan, two thousand and sixteen Clinton was up three point. Six percent now Biden is up seven point, two Pennsylvania, two thousand and sixteen Clinton up plus two point: one Biden is five point: six Wisconsin join ton up six point: five Biden is plus six point three. When you look at the numbers, a lot of predictions that were made a lot of predictions wound up being falls. What can we learn? What we saw there is still two weeks left in the race depends where the final averages turn out in twenty. Sixteen, our average in Pennsylvania was under two percentage points that is pretty close. Two of the final polls had race tied one had trump leading by single point. Michigan was three one slash two points: Wisconsin was the big miss in terms of pollsters Donald Trump over performed polls in Pennsylvania by two one, slash two points: Michigan by three one, slash two

points: seven points in Wisconsin. If he performs, in that same time around, he would fall short, he needs to tighten the race in these three states, Jedediah Tom Bevin, great, to hear from you. This will be a fascinating couple of weeks coming up and a.