Senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics Sean Trende joins 'Fox & Friends' with insight.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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will we are three days out from
the election
final push to voters
the race to reach two hundred and seventy electoral
votes still up for grabs,
which states should would he be
watching
here to break it down? Is
election analyst for real, clear
politics, Sean Trende,
thanks for being with us this
morning,
im going to ask from you and
the viewer, patients and
forgiveness.
My first time at the election
touch screen,
have you laid out for us Sean
three different scenarios that
we want to walk through?
We are focusing on seven states
here, according to you that are
key
Pennsylvania, Florida, Episcopal,
Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania
and Ohio.
All white right now
lets go with your first
scenario: Sean. That means we are
giving Iowa and Wisconsin to Joe
Biden.
What does that mean about President Trump and what he
president Trump and what he
needs to win this election?
He needs to have strong shows in
other states, for it all to add
up
the difficulty that we have in
that situation is that if he
loses Iowa and Wisconsin
a lot of these other states, he
needs to win, and the upper
Midwest are demographically,
similar to Iowa and Wisconsin.
He really finds himself in a
hole
I assigned Iowa and Twoisk
Joe Biden. That puts him at two hundred and sixty five
talking about Arizona, Florida,
North Carolina, Pennsylvania
and Ohio going for President
Trump,
and you can see that would make
it two hundred and seventy three to two hundred and sixty five.
Now we back those back out of
this scenario and give everybody
now back to blank.
Your second scenario, Sean you
say, lets keep Iowa for Joe
Biden and give him Arizona
talk to me about president
trumps path to victory in that
scenario.
Well, in a situation where he
loses Iowa or Joe Biden wins
Iowa, but Arizona flips to
President Trump again, you are
looking at a situation where
President Trump has to really
thread the needle.
You know I dont have video, so
I cant see the map that you are
putting up on this connection,
but again demographically, very
narrow for Trump to win,
but it can be done.
Will it can here is what
happens if he takes the two
states you mentioned Iowa and
Arizona. It puts Joe Biden at
two hundred and sixty six
that needle that President Trump
would need to thread then, as you
laid out for us, would have to
win Florida, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania, Ohio and
Wisconsin.
That would put him at two hundred and seventy two over
Joe Bidens, two hundred and sixty six
Sean. What I keep noticing,
though, in all of your scenarios
is Pennsylvania, is key to
President Trump.
Is that correct,
thats, absolutely key and
its part of the reason you have
seen the campaigns going there.
So much
have you seen Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania,
you have seen Barack Obama to
Pennsylvania.
The campaigns are going to be
hitting in
everyone knows that this time
Pennsylvania really is the
Keystone state.
Will I want to do one more
scenario that you laid out for
us.
This might be what some would
consider unlikely Sean.
We will switch Wisconsin back
over to Joe Biden and then
President Trump,
so he takes Arizona, Michigan
and Wisconsin,
and that means President Trump
would take Pennsylvania,
Florida, ohio- and this puts, I
believe this scenario and I
dont have it mapped out right
here. You did lay out a scenario
where we essentially get to two hundred and sixty nine
to two hundred and sixty nine,
a virtual tie that would be
Maine and Nebraska split
electoral votes go one way.
How likely is that two hundred and sixty nine to two hundred and sixty nine
electoral split,
not the most likely scenario
we have said Pennsylvania is the
key and I think North Carolina
and Florida and Iowa if Trump
were to win Pennsylvania, would
likely go to President Trump,
its not out of the realm of
possibility.
Thats a situation where the
House of Representatives gets to
determine hot president will be
Sean Trende, real, clear
politics, not where the
candidates are appearing. This
map,
seven states, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin,
Iowa and Arizona seem to be the.
Transcript generated on 2020-10-31.