Senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics Sean Trende joins 'Fox & Friends' with insight.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Only for a limited time to learn more go to sleepnumber dot com will we are three days out from the election final push to voters the race to reach two hundred and seventy electoral votes still up for grabs, which states should would he be watching here to break it down? Is election analyst for real, clear politics, Sean Trende, thanks for being with us this morning, im going to ask from you and the viewer, patients and forgiveness. My first time at the election touch screen, have you laid out for us Sean three different scenarios that we want to walk through? We are focusing on seven states here, according to you that are key Pennsylvania, Florida, Episcopal, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Ohio. All white right now lets go with your first scenario: Sean. That means we are giving Iowa and Wisconsin to Joe Biden. What does that mean about President Trump and what he
president Trump and what he needs to win this election? He needs to have strong shows in other states, for it all to add up the difficulty that we have in that situation is that if he loses Iowa and Wisconsin a lot of these other states, he needs to win, and the upper Midwest are demographically, similar to Iowa and Wisconsin. He really finds himself in a hole I assigned Iowa and Twoisk Joe Biden. That puts him at two hundred and sixty five talking about Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio going for President Trump, and you can see that would make it two hundred and seventy three to two hundred and sixty five. Now we back those back out of this scenario and give everybody now back to blank. Your second scenario, Sean you say, lets keep Iowa for Joe Biden and give him Arizona talk to me about president trumps path to victory in that scenario.
Well, in a situation where he loses Iowa or Joe Biden wins Iowa, but Arizona flips to President Trump again, you are looking at a situation where President Trump has to really thread the needle. You know I dont have video, so I cant see the map that you are putting up on this connection, but again demographically, very narrow for Trump to win, but it can be done. Will it can here is what happens if he takes the two states you mentioned Iowa and Arizona. It puts Joe Biden at two hundred and sixty six that needle that President Trump would need to thread then, as you laid out for us, would have to win Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin. That would put him at two hundred and seventy two over Joe Bidens, two hundred and sixty six Sean. What I keep noticing, though, in all of your scenarios is Pennsylvania, is key to President Trump. Is that correct, thats, absolutely key and its part of the reason you have seen the campaigns going there. So much have you seen Bernie Sanders Pennsylvania, you have seen Barack Obama to Pennsylvania.
The campaigns are going to be hitting in everyone knows that this time Pennsylvania really is the Keystone state. Will I want to do one more scenario that you laid out for us. This might be what some would consider unlikely Sean. We will switch Wisconsin back over to Joe Biden and then President Trump, so he takes Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and that means President Trump would take Pennsylvania, Florida, ohio- and this puts, I believe this scenario and I dont have it mapped out right here. You did lay out a scenario where we essentially get to two hundred and sixty nine to two hundred and sixty nine, a virtual tie that would be Maine and Nebraska split electoral votes go one way. How likely is that two hundred and sixty nine to two hundred and sixty nine electoral split, not the most likely scenario we have said Pennsylvania is the key and I think North Carolina and Florida and Iowa if Trump were to win Pennsylvania, would likely go to President Trump,
its not out of the realm of possibility. Thats a situation where the House of Representatives gets to determine hot president will be Sean Trende, real, clear politics, not where the candidates are appearing. This map, seven states, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Arizona seem to be the.
Transcript generated on 2020-10-31.