Dr. Peterson's extensive catalog is available now on DailyWire+: https://utm.io/ueSXh
Dr Jordan B Peterson and Dr. Richard Lindzen dive into the facts of climate change, the models used to predict it, the dismal state of academia, and the politicized world of “professional” science.
Richard Lindzen is a dynamical meteorologist. He has contributed to the development of theories for the Hadley Circulation, hydrodynamic instability theory, internal gravity waves, atmospheric tides, and the quasi-biennial oscillation of the stratosphere. His current research is focused on climate sensitivity, the role of cirrus clouds in climate, and the determination of the tropics-to-pole temperature difference. He has attained multiple degrees from Harvard University, and won multiple awards in his field of study such as the Jule Charney award for “highly significant research in the atmospheric sciences”. Between 1983 and 2013, he was the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at MIT where he earned emeritus status in July of 2013.
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- Links -
For Dr. Richard Lindzen:
MIT Page: https://eapsweb.mit.edu/people/rlindzen
- Chapters -
(0:00) Coming Up
(1:19) Intro
(4:40) Why you should listen to Dr. Lindzen
(13:00) How Ivy league hirings work
(16:00) Harvard or MIT?
(18:00) Emphasis on racism in the sciences
(19:22) Administrators outnumber faculty and students
(20:00) Wasting time on a broken grant system
(22:00) There is no money for questioning mainstream science
(24:00) 1800’s science papers shock students
(25:30) Scientific journals are not endorsements of the science they publish
(27:40) 1970’s, they notice an increase in Co2
(30:10) Classism and religious warping
(33:40) Impoverishing ourselves for no reason
(38:00) Objections to the narrative
(40:00) Coriolis effect
(45:48) Jordan plays devils advocate
(50:05) Politicians base their policy on scientific summaries written by politicians
(53:20) Bjørn Lomborg: even if they’re right, it’s not a big deal
(54:22) Tipping points, how they actually work
(57:00) Averaging anomalies
(1:03:00) Climate threat still five thousand years away
(1:08:00) Computer models, limitations and benefits
(1:12:13) Fluid dynamics
(1:14:45) Models on top of models predicting nothing
(1:17:45) Where scientists actually agree
(1:21:10) Money corrupts, “Climate Scientist” did not exist in the 90’s
(1:25:10) Speaking for your values without asking you what they are
(1:28:00) Gatekeepers holding back the world of science
(1:32:20) Stoking terror, stifling science
(1:38:30) You’ll falsify your own psyche if you falsify your words
(1:43:00) Standing your ground, living toward truth
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
The
hello. Everyone I'm going to contain-
you today my inquiry into the fraught realm. Let's say of of climate science, the so called settled climate signs talking today, doktor richard Linz and he's an accomplished. Professor atmospheric physicist and media are all just having authored over two hundred scientific papers and contributed to landmark theories in the realm
ozone photo chemistry, atmospheric tides and, most recently, climate stability holding a rear view in opposition to mainstream science, or perhaps not so rare lynn.
and disagrees on the role of water vapor in current climate change models and argue
that alarm ism is widespread, aided by political consensus. Not unlike the once popular research on
Annex doktor, rigid lines is it dynamical meteorologist? He has contributed to the development of theories for the hadley
circulation, hydra, dynamic instability, theory, internal gravity, waves, atmospheric tides and the cause
by biennial oscillation of the stratosphere. His current research is focused on climate sensitivity, the role of serious clouds in climate and the determination of the tropics to pool
Temperature difference is academic degrees are all from harvard university. He is the recipient, various awards,
and as a member of the national academy of sciences and a fellow of the american economy of arts and sciences,
american geophysical union, the american
meteorological society and the american association for the advancement of science,
between eighty three and two thousand and thirteen he was the Alfred p sloan, professor of atmospheric sciences, at mit. He assumed emeritus status as of July of two thousand and thirteen prior to eighty three. He held professorships at the
diversity of chicago and harvard university has also been a distinguished visiting scientist, the jet propulsion laboratory, as well as a visiting professor at the heat
university, tel Aviv university, the.
called normal superior, the university of paris and kyushu university. The first thing we're gonna, determine before we dive into the topic at hand, is why it might be reasonable and important to listen to doktor Linz and so we're gonna go through his academic background and then will proceed.
To the to the main issue. So were you? You did your undergraduate degree at harvard and delphi if that's right in physics from nineteen sixty, let's start from there, okay yeah, I graduated from harvard in physics, nineteen sixty so as long time ago,
I realized at that point that I really enjoyed classical physics and actually modern physics
seemed in some ways intimidating. So they contain
didn't graduate work in applied. Mathematics harvard was different from other places and applied
places like and why you were very heavy into the sea
ethical aspects of applied math harvard applied math with solving problems with applied.
and they were heavily into problem.
in meteorology and other things,
and so I ended up doing a thesis that was really atmospheric physics. It was the interaction of
fluid motions and chemistry
and radiated transfer, mostly in the street
spear and there were a lot of good problems. I enjoyed it. The one problem with it was: there was very little experience with data, and so I went for a poster drawn study period at the universe.
the washington, and there was the superb data now analysed, degree to his on the faculty. There is now deceased
And after that I went to norway for a year.
And there was a very able and famous
dynamic meteorologists. There are to listen
I was also a pleasure and during that time,
I began working on some other problems, ranging from
It's in the atmosphere to some problem called the
he's a biennial oscillation. You may not realize it, but
wind over the equator at about fifteen,
kilometers, roughly plus or minus ten goes from.
East to west for one year,
turn around, goes the other way for another year, the average periods
actually about twenty six months.
Have you been a puzzle
and we managed to find a solution to that puzzled as to how that work, probably too complicated to exist,
it involves. You know: random waves generated by the cuban these clouds in the tropics, interacting with the flow and for me
something that essentially would be called a relaxation oscillator
actually held up pretty well for almost fifty years or sixty years, so
as theories go that did well. It was also a problem with tides mean people
Familiar with tides in the ocean know that
a primarily twelve hour, lunar tides and then
Nor tides, because the moon, although much less method
The sun is so close that its perturbation to the gravitational potential is greater than that of the sun.
But then it was observed that in their pressure at the surface of the earth, the
Were also primarily semi
diurnal than twelve hours, but solar and
a bit of a puzzle because they have to be thermal,
and lord Kelvin lean nineteenth century was
Asking you know, given that the twenty four hour component is much stronger, while was twelve hours, and he suggested that
spare was resident at twelve hours.
lennox lee domini
Did the literature until late fifty's.
Meaning what meaning.
You know, let's say you have a job
Oh wait.
Violin or something is strong,
You get a certain note, let's, because its resident at that note it
right displays that ivories yeah,
and so people have figured out, you know how it might be resident and so on
but after world war, two when one had rockets on realised the atmosphere
not the way it has to be to be resident and we
get out why the twenty four hour got trapped, and so that was kind of fun as problems like that. Let me
in some ways: atmosphere, science, meteorology, geology, cheer physics, kind of fun, it's their great fields. So so you, like the you liked the physics out you liked physics
little bit more. On the concrete side, little more more data driven little bit more
on earth and theoretical realm and then
So you said you were you washington to oppose a and then he went to norway. What happened after that?
and I went to the national centre for atmospheric research
and I was the staff scientists there and
a sort of reason, for it is slightly cynical. Some of my classmates had gone into academia
and I was watching it. What a horror show being an assistant professor was
you had insecurity. You had a heavy teaching load. You didn't have time to do the research
so I decided that I would stay at a research centre until I was sought, pretend you- and I was after a couple of years, offered tenure post at the university of chicago
And then,
The very nice experience I loved chicago and but my wife was a little bit in secure about the crisis situation and says
chicago and when harvard made an offer of a chair, we accepted it left Chicago. I came to harvard and
I spent about ten years there as a what,
eventually as far as the Gordon Mckay professor,
and with some other chair, but I had a close colleague at mit jewel johnny,
who was a pre eminent dynamic,
media, but also very interesting, I'm good friend and he died.
And I was offered his chair at mit and they took me. It was that last
that has to be the early eighties. So I should just point out for everyone whose watching and listening that tat. This is a pretty. What would you call it? Stellar academic track, so, first of all, an undergraduate at harvard and then applied phd work at the postern level in a variety of different
is including research institutions. But the fact that doctor Linden was offered ten year at you chicago continued position to begin with. That's not the normal mode of making an entry
the entire academia usually used.
As an assistant professor, and so that's on tenured and it's very rare to be offered a first time job as a tenured. Professor was
socio level or full prevails. There was this so see it wasn't promoted to look you years later right and then ok. So from these.
Steve Chicago? Then you are offered a harvard chair and I want to point out to everyone whose watching it listing again that that's very rare or so at harvard the hiring streams are really broken into two segments, and so you have family members who were hired as assistant professors. So that's the most junior level of professor and those positions are not ten years at the ivy league generally speaking, and so what the ivy league do is bringing promising young people at the assistant level, but turn them over, and that gives lots of people a chance to work at the ivy leagues and it gives the students had chanced to be in contact with dynamic young researchers, let's say and that, but the second hiring stream and the more important one is the senior professors and that's usually at associate or full professor left.
and what harvard did when I was there that was in the nineties was- and I am sure the practice still still continues and is characteristic of our views in general. Is they look all over the world for the people who are doing the top research in their areas at a relatively senior level and then make them an offer see if they can entice them to come to harvard and show that doesn't happen to very many people? It's very very rare occurrence: it's not that huge university harvard and there are too many professorships.
To be offered a chair. There is a while it's a mark of, I would say universal esteem devoted directed towards a given professor within the confines of their research, and they have to have made quite a splash on the research front
not to happen and then to move from harvard mit. While the same thing is the case there because well harvard
mit battle it out for priority, led save for the most prestigious and high call highest quality university in the. U s, and possibly in the world, can have an argument, but to move from harvard gametes is well that's enough
indication of a stellar academic career. So you went in my day in the nineteen eighties and you didn't you
You were there until you retired, to learn a retired for
molly in two thousand and thirteen. But you know they ve been good,
May I have an office in some assistance occasionally and
Of course, one of the things is you, you no longer have students, that's a bit of a drawback of occasionally, however, have colleagues- and even you know at the end of it
for reasons that are obvious. I had almost no funding
but there were some postdocs who are paid who paid their way from south korea, so that was,
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supporting veterans and america's coffee. So so did you have a preference for harvard or mit in terms of the students you encountered
Not really, I mean the students I encountered changed over time,
more than they changed with place
when I came to harvard,
The students in my area were, I would say, in some ways,
Coming from my mouth and physics, mostly
they were the overflow and there were lots of kids studying math and physics, so they were good you're. You very good
and there was sort of true when I came to my t, bird,
by the nine. These things changed a little bit. First of all,.
Good students were not entering physics in math,
the level that they had once had did the best students often was going in for finance things like that
right right, and so there was no overflow. I think there was this.
light change in the nature of students. Sir,
they were not as theoretical. They were more model oriented and so on there
also a chain.
Should mit, which is not something we wanted
is, it was getting harder and harder to find people working with data.
And so the students were getting less sperience with actual data
those are changes amene compared to current changes,
they probably were minor
at the moment? I just find it strange
there's so much emphasis on racism in leader of instances so odd
sort of glad I'm not teaching at this point yeah yeah! Well, it's that one trick pony that ideological insistence that something approximating critical race theory should dominate every.
Single discipline and- and it gives people who really have no background whatsoever in these fields the opportunity to dominate, and it's it's really quite an appalling thing, to see
we'll see one other well too,
just the vast increase,
In both numbers power and importance of administrators- yes, yes, definitely yep, I mean how well you know it's. I I think in some ways we live inside a giant whale carcass. That's why the beach- and while really it sits
it's a good biological metaphor and there's there's plenty of food for everyone for a very short period of time, and the administrative overloading the university is something remarkable to behold, especially because it's been built on the backs of
send their student loan they're still lawyer, but it's like indentured servants to- and I would say it's it's more than that- its
you now have administrators, certainly out numbering faculty,
many places out numbering faculty and students
They need money, but they do not do the functions that the university gets paid for, teaching research and so
And so we have overhead on the grants and that has become critically important them
overhead, the better the administration likes you. So you know if you have
big laboratory you'll have moreover
then someone who does theory and
if you're a child, when I was there, we we were paying about fifty percent in overhead costs. Yeah. I remember correctly for a given grant, so scientists spent about a third of their time in the united states is one of the reasons I was actually happy to come back to canada as the scientists I knew in the. U s: were spending?
one third of their time. Writing proposals taking a shot at about a five percent chance at getting a large grant and fifty percent of that went to overhead yeah. It was quite the it was quite the waste of time for the scientific community, because that meant you know. The brightest people in in our community were spending thirty, thirty percent of their time at least,
writing grounds that had a pretty low probability of success here instead of and then you know the one. You know, of course, that the problem with writing grants is that they intend to have to study trending topics, and you also can be very daring. You have to take the next autumn
step in some real sense and only in the approved direction, and so that whole
granting system to me. Look like look like something approximating the death of exploratory science that actually also
evolved over time. When I entered academia, the national science foundation actually had very few staff.
and they were eager to give out money. There wasn't that much demand for it right
but as the administration grew, there was also a media.
trade and place a large role.
The behaviour of departments young faculty today I mean, are sunk. If they don't get grants,
oh yeah, and when we get to climate, you don't get grants a few question. The current narrative. So so let us
so let let's delve into that a bit when you are at mit and and and at harvard how many, how many papers have you published? Approximately your colleagues, two hundred and fifty or so
Ok, so for those of you who are watching and listening and correct me, if you think I'm making an error and for proper proposition here. So when I was
working as a family member, we can add a rule of thumb in this psychology department, which was that if a student prepared three publishes papers that we're sequentially linked added an introduction to that conclusion, we would basically accept that as a thesis and so the rough equivalence was three published papers equals a phd thesis and you ve published two hundred and fifty papers so in some real sense. That's equivalent to aid
phds outdo. What do you think about four line, a logic not much help
Well, I'm trying to give everyone, while I'm trying to give everyone watching enlist the sense,
I don't really know what it means to have a publication record like that. Well, I mean because so that's that's what I'm trying to elucidate yeah, I
it's also a matter that has changed with time. I mean people like well.
Joe charney, who I mention too, is the leading figure in dynamic
you're out she pay published sixty papers,
Aren't you listen, who is also a terrific influence, something that order the precious to publish, have increased
and so people's behaviour is different, also publication,
and has become a very different issue
You probably know that before world war to peer review was very rare, and if I have students red papers from the nineteenth century or the early twentieth century, there quite surprised to read them. Why? Because there
formal, their communications they're, not assertions of truth.
They are looking for truth and
you know after the war, for a variety of reasons, a peer review,
Largely because there was too much demand for publication
been a shortage of paper, but frances
Quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society in the uk had a wonderful statement of what the reviewer was supposed to do.
They said you can only reject a paper for two reasons: one
is an overt mathematical error or lack of originality.
The paper then, would be discussed at the monthly meeting and the
discussion- would be included with the paper.
there was no essential thought that peer of amid peer review, the public, is then made today.
That this is a certification of the paper
it is somehow proven right now. It's fact right right here and it's nothing of the sort
if it is to see if the stuff is interesting and it's not overtly
wrong mathematically and not the pleasure
on the other hand, it becomes
something more
mention. You know. I had two papers that appeared in the bullet.
of the american meteorological society that dealt with climate?
the my objections to the current narrative in various ways.
and they got published reviewed, but
of cases. The editor was fired immediately.
and though we are all that's cute, not was win
well when, when that one was two thousand.
and was nineteen ninety one or two
and the other one was so you're on this early. Oh well, you know this issue.
Actually began in the sixties, right and them
it was clear there was a lot of hunting around four
environmental issue that would give people power on the energy sector over the energy sector.
And so you know you had earth day in the early sixties.
But then you had global cooling
The villain. There was the seventies yeah. Well, it was sixtys and seventys and continued to the seventies.
And the notion there is so you wanted to get rid of her coal fired plants curses.
the worm in
ing, creating sulphates that were reflecting light and causing global cooling.
You also had Ass a grain at that time,
and again get rid of the energy sector.
And both of those turn out to be duds and the this global
mean temperature metric whatever is started
increasing the seventies. I said on this well go and.
for a number of reasons. Seo too came into the issue. One of the reasons why the international geophysical year,
began: a measurement programme for co2,
at my lower observatory. Why
This was sir Charles killing
and it was promoted by a man called roger avail who was directorate scripts, which is an ocean grab.
Institution in California.
all right, they notice seo to lisbon.
Increasing
The evidence is it's been increasing since the industrial europe began, but serious levels by policemen,
people were being reached in the fifties, sixties, where it was perhaps significant in terms of heating. Why did they start measuring it? Well, curiosity.
so that's so that was just that was they were just curious. To begin with, I mean it's an interesting
with only plays a role in the photo synthesis spiral.
we have you know like forty thousand parts per million in our breath, sir, it's an interesting substance
And part of the reason, it's interesting is, of course, that it has
infrared absorption answered.
He's a role in what is called the greenhouse effect. Ok
so they found it and
Question then, was sir: what are the implications
but more than that, if you are interested in
trolling, the energy sector is the fact that,
matter. How clean you may
The burning of fossil fuels
inevitably be left with the product of clean burning, which will see eye to eye,
I see so. This was one of couldn't get rid of it. Pollutant icy icy
another promoted, fossil fuel energy became there were never going to get
Carbon dodges, like that was a good now. What why do you think there was attempts to you,
about control of the energy sector. Why? Why bring that into it? Well I mean you're
this is as good as mine, but obviously is at the heart of industrial development into the heart of the prosperity of the west
Yeah, I had all these malthusian movements- parlor leg, John holmes, zero popular-
growth
and you know you see now I mean a kind of antipathy to the working middle class
you begin to feel there were people who resented the fact
that ordinary people were aspiring to live decently, have a car own, a house
and for some reason I think that warm yeah
you don't have a dishwasher and
I don't know why, but that there is
was an antipathy to this,
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that's exodus, nine, zero dot com, slash Jordan, I was talking gal alex time recently wrote a book called fossil fuel oil,
he yeah, he attempted to lay out some of the you might think, theological or metaphysical presuppositions underlying this, and
comment on envy is an interest.
one that you know, there's some antipathy towards Heaven.
Ordinary people thrive, just pretty nasty form of antipathy. His point was that the male do so, there's I guess there.
Who won on the malthusian front and one on the more cause I religious front is that there is an idea that the only acceptable natural light
scape in some real sense is one that's been completely untouched by human beings, and so, if that's your presupposition to begin,
than anything that has to do with industry is going to be like.
a persona non grata.
You combine that with this malthusian notion which we could go into a little bit. So the malthusian knows
for everyone watching and listening is its based on something like a petri dish model. So a petri dish is an enclosed,
lastly container that has a media minute off
and a guard which is a kind of gelatin. Then you can grow microorganisms on and if you throw
microorganisms there. It will start to multiply until it eats up.
The garden then it'll all die, and so
is this idea. That's in some sensible
logical idea that populations left to their own devices will multiply until they do
our all their resources, and then they will perish on mass, and
the malthusian predictions of population collapse that started to emerge in the sixties, were based on this petri dish model in some real sense and the problem with that model.
It is an obvious that single celled organisms are a good metaphor for human beings because work capable of extremely radical adaptation and transformation, whereas,
Celled organisms just basically run out something like an algorithmic programme, even though their quite complex, and so the notion that
when populations are destined to
malthusian end is not it. What would you call? It is not.
No, it is not economical biological fact. Let us put it that way.
certainly driving a lot of this sort of thing we're talking about here I mean it's a little bit.
Ricky, in a sense, what motivates people in its clear that at the top they have no interest in restricting their own consumption?
It's all so very much I mean.
You know when you try and figure out, what's the right population, I guess in some sense you could say
there must be some limit, but you know you:
look at india in my lifetime,
Me before independence
even shortly after its population was worth.
under two hundred million,
famine was come common.
And today is one point- three billion and their food exploiters right right
I just saw chart the other day to the children over,
The last ten years, a fair bit of farmland has been taken taken out of production
Some of those reverted to the wild and yet, despite there being less farmland being used now, the the amount of food in the world is producing is still increasing.
Pretty damn rapid rate, and so it is obvious at all what the upper boundaries for population capacity.
Oh yeah, I mean you know, agriculture's become far more efficient,
This leads to this peculiar emphasise emphasis
Food that has
used, fertilizer and so on,
Well, that's good now we're not at that point yet that would lead to starvation.
Without ammonia, had four billion people would die without ammonia fertilizer nazi elements at the moment,
Yeah I mean so everything about this is: is sort of nuts alex serb stoned, who you mentioned is pointed this out of the sky above yes, I've
With this I mean you could do everything you know bury the europe
very few s. Canada,
get rid of all their emissions period, all dead and buried.
And it would make very little difference to the growth of co2
since most of the world, is not as stupid as to commit suicide
And so, if you really believe the cataclysmic flame which have no scientific basis, but let's say their true you're doing nothing to stop it,
contrary, your impoverishing your societies,
making them less resilience. Because of you,
natural disasters are coming
Where would you rather be today, Haiti or
cargo or new york, or los angeles I'd also the case. It was also the case that
I don't I don't see any evidence at all, because you couldn't,
case. I arguably, if you believe, the carbon dioxide climate catastrophe narrative, you could make a case that its ethically required to impoverish people, if you could demonstrate that doubt, impoverishment actually produced
let's say a decrease in carbon output, but that certainly isn't what's happened in germany since germany's gone, madly green, in fact air energy.
Their energy production is much less efficient than it was ten years ago and it's five times is expensive and it pollutes far more, and so my senses that
I think the data bear this out. To is that if you provided people with cheap, clean
energy on our world basis and eradicated, absolute
poverty or at least ameliorated to the degree that was possible. Then people start carrying about the long term and they start working
for environmental preservation of color local level and that's a far more effective way of taking care.
planet, so not only do impoverished people, you are poverty
people and make the planet worse and, as far as I can tell, that's just essentially unforgivable. So why do you think
So two things we left out, we left something hanging use.
to editors, got fired one
do united to win, was the second one who got fired for probably have the euro.
two thousand and one it was immediate.
Two thousand and one ok, and so now what we, when you start to object to the narrative.
What narrative, where you objecting to in a way round this is back, say and ninety two, what narrative rio jacket and on what grounds, where your objective touching on something that took me a while to understand you know: goebbels famously
You know, if you tell a big enough lie and repeated often enough, it will become the truth
has been a lot of that in this, but there are aspects of
establishing the narrative I he would make something. The truth,
hadn't appreciated. So the narrative was the climate is determined by a greenhouse effect,
and adding seo too to it, increases it
causes, warming and more
over the next
ro greenhouse substances. Besides seo to water, vapor clouds upper level cloud will end
If vie, whatever man does
immediately goes against slid shuttle gaze principle which says: if you perturbed system and it is capable internally of counteracting it, it will
And our system than you do you think that applies the archangel. What that would that's
a very germane issue because well
but let me, even if you please go, have let me foolish because okay, so
that was a little bit odd. You began wondering: where did these feedbacks come from
and a meat
Lee people, including myself, started
looking into the feedbacks
and seeing
whether there were any negative ones. How did it work.
But underlying it- and this is where I learn- if you,
to get a narrative established. The crucial thing is the pepper it with errors, questionable things,
serve the critics will seize on that and not question the basic narrative. The basic narrative in this sense was the climate is controlled by the greenhouse effect. In point of fact, the earth's climate system, which has many regions but two distinct different regions-
the tropics roughly the minus thirty to thirty degrees latitude and the extra tropics outside of thirty degrees plus or minus
They have very different dynamics in the tropics. The crucial thing for the earth by the way- and this is a technicality
much harder to convey than saying that greenhouse gases
or a blanket door that ninety seven percent of scientists agree? This is actually a technical issue. The earth rotates
now. People are aware of that. We have day and night, but very
Something called the coral reefs effect
If you are on a rotating system, it gives rise to the appearance of forces that change the winds relative to the rotation and the only component of the rotation is the component that is perpendicular to the surface. So at the pole, the rotation vector is perpendicular to the surface. At the equator
its parallel to the surface its zero, and this gives you phenomenally different dynamics,
So, where you don't have a vertical component rotation, vector motions to
they do in the laboratory and small scale. If you have a temperature difference, it acts to wipe it out, and so, if you look at the tropics the term,
the at any surface a relatively flat. They don't very much with latitude.
On the other hand, you go to the middle attitudes extra tropics there, the term
sure varies elapsed between the tropics. In the pole. We know that I mean
fishes are called it highlighted its and, if
look at changes in climate nears history, what they consist in is a tropics that stays relatively constant,
And what changes is the temperature difference between the tropics and the pole during the
I say ages about forty degrees centigrade. Today. It's about arose about sixty three, it's about forty
during fifty million years ago, something called the scene was about twenty, so that's all a function of what's going on outside the tropics within the tropics. The greenhouse effect is significant, but
What determines the temperature changed between the tropics and the has very little to do with the greenhouse effect is
a dynamic phenomenon based on the fact that if you have a temperature difference with latitude, it generates instability.
These these instabilities take the form of the cyclic, an ant,
say climate patterns tat. You see.
The weather map. Now the tropics,
very different. I mean you know, even a casual look at a weather map. The systems that bring us weather travel from west to east, at latitudes outside the tropic tropics within the tropics
travel from east to west. The prevailing winds are opposite the two sections and where
Saying that what changes due to the greenhouse effect, however, you look at it is
le at the polls, that is not true, there's no physical basis for statement.
all they do is determined the starting point for where the temperature
changes in middle attitudes that determine mainly by hydro dynamics. Ok, that's complicated to explain to someone and yet
and yet it's the basis for claiming that
Seemingly large small numbers, you notice, if global mean-
which goes up one and I have to greece. It's the end.
that's based on getting much bigger
at high latitudes and determining that
all one and a half degrees at the equator would do or in the greenhouse part of the earth.
Is changed. The temperature everywhere by one and a half degrees which for most of us is less.
And the temperature change between breakfast lunch and the thought that this
the end of the world
this little bit right, so, let's, let's play devils advocate here for and so let me.
Out the narrative incorrect me five if I've got it wrong so that first of all the
at the moment is making a big deal out of climate and associating climate change with the greenhouse effect the trapping of heat
and their associated we're all associating the greenhouse effect with an increase in carbon dioxide and
Initially, we were associating that increase in climate in carbon.
oxide with with global warming,
And then we ve the proposition,
or not only will be warming say of up to a degree and a half or two degrees by the end of the century and
be theirs variation in those predictions. But we are also looking at a system that characterized by a variety of positive feedback loop
and those the danger here is that a one and a half degree increase might not be catastrophic, but that that might trigger a sequence of cataclysmic events. We here
times about the melting of the greenland iceberg. Ice cap, for example, the rapid rise in sea level that would occur as a consequence, the increase of care.
turns out the pools, the release of methane. As a consequence, let's say, of the permafrost,
goin and then a runaway greenhouse effect. Because of that- and you evinced some sceptics,
While about the whole narrative, but also more particularly- and perhaps more importantly, you dont soundly
you're a big fan of the idea of runaway positive feedback loops, oh well,
lot of things and mash what you have said,
even the one and a half degree depends
the positive feedbacks. Otherwise you too would be even less significant. Much less significant
so those you know, you assume that water vapor increases and amplifies it, but
pictures one dimensional, sir, you know it, you have to know.
The area where water vapor is important goes through a mess of things.
and we know now that that probably isn't occurring even people who support the narrative.
you bathing water, vapor isn't amplifying carbon dioxide effects
if it is, it has to be considered as part of an infrared feedback, and nobody is detected that that is actually positive. Came. I heard that I read that the putative contribution
action of carbon dioxide to global warming is low
than the margin of error for measurement of the effective water vapor give you do know if that's better through their debts.
They sound if that's that lead suddenly really sad. If that's true, it is true
If we want to mention, if you want a measure it rather than
I passed the size and what you are saying is true: it's been hypothesized.
in other words, so were- were planning on spending two trillion dollars to remediate problem whose magnitude,
so small that
could easily be hidden within another measurement error on the water vapor front. I think so,
but anyway, that's really quite something. No, I mean it's called the fan
c of the political world.
I'll, give you an example of where, following it,
The trap I mention you know
going along with the narrative, because it has so many weaknesses ignore them
the whole picture of the greenhouse is misconceived on taiwan,
not go too far down that rapid whole, because I'd like to stay focused on on critique of the major narrative
no, I mean you know, I am quite willing to
about the other problems. But the fact that,
you don't have this polar amplification. You know that
gonna be bigger at high level. It may be,
But it's not due to the greenhouse its due to processes in the text
tropics where the greenhouse is secondary.
by a long shot?
There is one example of what you are saying and it helps I think, understand why this issue gets so distorted.
in one of the international panel on climate change and the sea when body report I think the third world
somewhere in the early two thousands
I was a leader author, but that we can get to hit her.
In any case they have this thousand pages that deals with the science has no
index is totally unreadable.
And then they have a summary for policy makers which isn't really
due to the scientists and they
manipulate the text because that comes out six months before the text of which it's a summary,
but you know they know, people aren't even going to read that. So you get a thousand pages
can read that you have twenty pages they're not going to read as
The press release the press room.
This is the iconic statement than that's what gets the headlines, so they iconic statement were
they now arm. I forget how, once how certain there,
most of the warming. Since nineteen sixty is due to man, ok,
that doesn't mean much was about. I have to agree. It was most consistent with the climate
in relatively insensitive? It was basically a statement. This
of a problem here
and say that they just said most of the warming since nineteen sixteen dude man.
So what is most mean? Does this most me? Ninety five percent or fifty one percent
I mean fifty one percent
ok, even if it meant a hundred percent, it wouldn't matter, it was small garden
but how did senators?
cain and liebermann respond to that.
They come out immediately was statement. This is this
marking gun? We must do something
So as long as the scientists can make innocent remarks,
and be assured that politicians will convert them,
men to alarm and increase funding.
Why are they gonna complain and see? Have this in city.
Yes, sir interaction, where scientists
oh there's another guy built steve coonan- was written this book,
and I know Steve well, and you know the point.
is he could use the documents
there are cited on behalf of alarm to say, look
Nobody here is saying it's the problem that the
environmentalists and the politicians are saying. Where did
this coming friday
and the answer is it called bjorn lomborg has done the same bribe and he accepts the I p c c predictions essentially with some criticism but says lock if they are right. This is straight from the horse's mouth. Let's say with regard to the: u n, even if they're correct, that will mean two things. The first is will be slightly less rich than we would have been
a hundred years running out, because economic growth is so high and we won't even noticed that some real sense, but even if it
slightly bigger than we predict we're so
in adapting, and you can see like the curves, for example, in terms of number of peace,
who are dying from natural disasters each year, which has declined precipitously over a hundred years, we're so good at adapting that the probability that we can just adapt to this is a hundred percent now that of course mean that assumes that there are none of these run away. Positive feedback loop effect, but
My problem without on the scientific front, was well how the hell do you predict a runaway positive feedback loop? You can predict that, as far as I can tell, by the way, the feed birds are not run away, study using they just amplify you'd. Have
get a much higher level of feedback to be a runaway system. The tipping point is it
front argument and I find that kind of noddy because tipping points in the
climate system, a virtually unheard of
a good reason for it there,
so characteristic of systems that have what I would call few.
Greece of freedom so ready, sir.
saying. If you want to make the transition from one state to another, you don't have many places to go, so it has to take a leap all right. All I see what you mean
so a system that is constrained in its in its modes of possibility tat because
a couple of states, exact mont blanc system, a system like our that's very good- has an infinite number of degrees of freedom, essentially
go smoothly through anything has lapping, as that proposition been quantum
If I'd like to pick two, I've never heard that before it it. It makes a lot of sense to me that you know a system that flips would flip because it can be frozen
or liquid in the case of water, but but a system that complex and highly and
big because of that has many many ways of dispensing went degree. Extra, so called green looks like any normal argument.
Yeah. I haven't seen it explicitly expressed, but I'm pretty sure.
There's something in the literature about why it makes sense if access them has multiple ways of multiple ways of dispersing with increased energy input. Yeah
then it's not going to. Maybe the probability that is going to do something dramatic has gotta be proportionate in some sense to the number of options that I mean look you know
some say if you wanna, pepper something with craziness. This issue has led to
speak of on that count me one of the ones I like is this metric for climate, which is a very peculiar metric. You know some global temperature.
Yeah, what is it global mean? What is it, how do you get it? Where is it.
I mean? How do you take well fraternal europe's walk into that, while some, while some of that ok, so some of that is a consequence
of many many weather stations distributed on the physical surface of the earth, but a problem with those is that
Many of them were built in places
urban. Where urban encroachment has
founded over one hundred years- and so that's a huge problem, one measurement for but that's sophisticated heavy,
average MT everest with the dead sea? Well,
I'm curious about that. How how not to think of the earth is having one temperature
so you're making the case there. That the mean is the crucial variable right. That's really what it boil. It is saying that, but it's hard to tell
how you get it, they don't go,
by the way, by averaging what they do
look. Well, how else can you get it? Ok, what they do is take each station
Take a thirty year average forget it seen. Only nineteen
in the nineteen eighty or something
get the deviation of the temperature from that average.
And they average the anomalies. The deviation ok
So you know, let's say it went up three degrees at one stage,
and, from the thirty year mean went
two and one inside they average those numbers instead of the temperature itself. Ok, why and who is
nay, the british metal office, nowhere nasa, so everyone producing a temperature record is doing that. Ok,
maybe it makes sense. You know cause you don't want em average MT everest and the dead sea, but maybe
changes in temperature at those places you could average and get an average temperature change. Ok said
that and they show you the graph, but they know.
a show you the data points and it
he showed the data points guy at large.
sliver more laboratory. You did this,
de ninety died. Ninety two: he showed the data points and where
This global mean temperature record
changing a degree, a degree and a half over a century a century and a half. The data points are scattered over twenty degrees
right there. Densely scattered, who dare not. Era is just huge range, just scatter and if you
shows any given period of time. Any moment
there are almost as many stations. Cooling is warming, even though the trend is slightly warming cause. It's like.
And so, when you see somebody at a given location, saying this,
day. I'll come as they say, it's warming, the data says
could almost be is likely to cool, is warm except as a slight bias
And it's you know
when you look at the media. If
the extreme at any given place. They say it's climate right there
because it suggests that case
Well, so part of the problem here is that we have a a single measure, which is this average change. The temperature now that's become a that's, become the standard for assessing something like global planetary,
Oh yeah, now our entire industrial enterprises being bent to serve that particular master so
what do you think's wrong with the average mean temperature as a unit? Very variable mean you talked about scatter, so that some problems
but the other scout another other one problem with it is, and it explains why, for instance, textbooks on climate from the forties through the sixties didn't discuss this metric. They discussed the fact that the earth had many climate
genes dozens and they wanted to know what accounted for the different regimes of climate and the earth, something called carbon classification.
This metric became popular with global,
leading global warming and so long as you want to have something singular that showed,
one or the other. I think there
capitalize are also on the fact that, as.
A british physicist, a novelist cp snow realized
many years ago, that we have two cultures
we have more than that. Maybe you have no culture, but
If you're, not a scientist,
it is amazing how,
enumerate and deliver it,
you can be
so are you
if you are assigned young but there's this,
different kind of ignorance, especially
nation and so on, but most people
Looking at a graph can't read a graph.
ran? So you know if you look at the financial page people
all in all, see the same graph if it went up ten points,
when up a hundred points and went up two hundred boys or they see as it went up
And they reasonable and they show you that, because if they are
they show you something that is objective someday
It wouldn't look like it's doing anything
and so what what would you reek? What would you
regard as the major drivers of august. Let me
go back even further, do you think
that we have any existential, real existential concerns on the climate front, not for the next
five thousand years. Ok, ok, so
so we probably don't have to worry about that for at least four thousand. I think so and then we would see it. I mean it's.
You know we had these massive ice ages and an every
roughly hundred thousand years and the glacial part of it is longer,
then the interglacial that were in now.
so be it.
I mean, but we're talking about scales of thousands of years. For that.
That's a major change.
it was on it
stood by a serbian astronomer.
In a nineteen thirty surly forties, that
this is largely due to the,
it'll variations of the earth which produce
This change is in
solar radiation incident on the earth
in summer, in the arctic of a hundred watts, was permitted squared member
seal to your talking about two words? For me, the square three words for me: one and a half between the ice ages, hundred
and why summer in the arctic, because
always have snow in the winter in the arctic circle.
she is how much of it survives the summer if it's called during the summer, the snow less and builds up on a new base each year.
And over thousands of years becomes a cup
you're, a kilometer to a vice of freedom.
On the other hand, if the summers are warm, the snow doesn't last and you don't build your ice,
ok, so I saw the main drivers of that kind of that was so little
I change doubts, orbital and sold, and those are you said, a hundred watts per square metre really. Essentially
And now you're you're, pointing out that the putative effective of
monoxide warming, is something like to watch per meter. Better order and that's going to produce a comparatively small perturbation knew nothing of the order of magnitude and its associated say with glaciated or the lack thereof,
yeah and also not an amount that will produce positive feedback loops. Are you, though,
of great you producing positive feedback. Loops, I think, is a kind of funny praising the feedback loops are intrinsic to the system.
and the question is: do we have positive feedback loops and I don't think so
really serious one, and yet there
Assumed in order to get a big bang added, the ceo, too
Ok, so what, on what basis are they assume
because you already made the case now degrees and so like. What's going on here is scientifically, why? How can that story be put forward with any degree of credibility?
By saying it's credible,
That's what we're doing
I mean you know, in other words,
smoking Nobby did some papers in the early
However, these were he assumed,
Surely one dimensionality for this system? No clouds, no nothing.
And he said, if I assume relative humidity remains fixed,
I've. No clouds. I dont, like clouds chair harsh.
then because of something called the club
His club byron relation the warmer it gets.
The more moisture the atmosphere can hold and the threat
to humanity, is vague, she'll have more moisture, ok,
and he showed you could get an ample a doubling of the effect of co2 from that
It happens to only apply in the tropics and
It is not. The clouds are not fixed
there are also changing, and
directing its. I think, much of what's happening due to the war away
and changing the area over which the water vapor accidents are much more complicated affair
and the measurements from satellites are suggesting that
the whole show bang when put together is now
producing the feedback that you needed to double the effect.
Now you ve also you numerous new expressed a lot of scepticism about computer models. Now, when the average person reads
that a computer mortal makes a given protection, especially if its reported in peer reviewed paper there inclined to presume that that means two things means data and it means fact, but I am very sceptical of computer,
It is because you have to make all sorts of assumptions and the devil's in the details with something as complex as climate. So on what guy?
have you gone after the climate models. Well, it'll, actually I'd
I have a use for the models
there's no way that models can accurately
There is a way, maybe be fluids
The trouble is our atmosphere, erosion
have motions on every scale.
They have motions on the scale of your finger nail. They have more
on the scale of the planet.
they all have an impact on small scale, turn
whence the boundary led the clouds Travis.
a kilometer or so the
the patterns that have scales of thousands
so kilometers.
and you're modeling them on a computer and eat.
Today's massive computers.
can't resolve a centimeter
That would be incredible
I have to assume what the
as small scale turbulence does they have to assume what the clouds do they have to assume. What do you know? All sorts of things are doing.
and even then there are some systems where you can prove mathematically that
You reduce the mesh size of which your approximating things closure, you're not doing it continuously after just may point
it converges to the right answer.
But no one has ever done that for fluid dynamics.
no. I really didn't converges, so you have to
in these malaria
But in you know often you'll run a model and it goes haywire you throw in damping to prevent it from going haywire.
The damping has no physical basis is just to keep the model from blowing up.
You're doing all these things and we hopeful that
It may still have some insight now. I said very,
Actually, I'm not again,
models, so, for instance,
If you do theory
phenomenon in the atmosphere
usually do what's called order of magnitude analysis. What that means is you take the full equations, and yet
I too estimate how big and small the terms are, and you try
to see. If these terms are small, can I approximate the system with a simpler system,
And can I write tested in this way
you learn a lot from that? Almost everything we know came from that sort of analysis not for models
once in a while, if things get complicated idle
to look at a model and see whether there were things
possibly going on in the model that might go on in nature. They, I hadn't thought about.
and so the models can be useful,
promoters of more thinking about possibilities. Sure of course, of course, of course, that's very different, and this
that. There are valid models of what's going to happen of coils climate and calves of two questions on that front. Is I guess
Hard to approach,
made fluid dynamics, regardless of
size because a fluid sis
has so many degrees of freedom is very hard to do.
I mean nobody would pretend. Let's say you have a gurgling broke with pebbles, and so
it's doing all sorts of me nobody's gonna predict the eddie
for let's say a mile. I mean that would be hopeless. You might make us statistical, forecast and certain things
and you might get useful information and you
be able to make an approximation that tells you
The roughness of the surface affected the flow rate and so on, but it right- and you know
all you do is scaled up
Many orders of magnitude and you have the earth sadness
and there is little eddies that you couldn't track or now you're, whether systems and so on is that I have trouble tracking
social part of the issue here. Is that the
we we're dealing with temperature changes that are of
a relatively small magnitude compared to the potential range of temperature change and what
means is that for that degree of accurate
the indonesian. Let's say you needed accuracy of one.
Three degrees over a hundred years. You
I have an unbelievably finely tuned model at an extremely high level of resolution and then with
difficulties in and include the dynamics. It isn't even obvious that you could do it in principle. I think that's probably true. You know you
you can restrict. As I say you damp the marvels, you keep them for blowing up, you do all sorts of things and in our, for instance, with the greenhouse picture, I've been critical
of it, because I think it only really is useful in the tropics, but
It is useful
comparing venus and mars and mercury for them, you know the gross,
idea of the greenhouse, does tell you why they are different.
But you know the changes in the earth's climate involved. Miniscule. Temperature changes compared to the temperature differences between the planets.
right right right right. Well, then, we have the additional problem on the political front that so imagine you have an unstable climate model or inaccurate climate mortal at the scale of resolution were discussing and then
who put on top of that an economic model and the,
economic model uses the climate model as an axiom, and then it tries to
connect out a hundred years which, like I just don't see, that is
anywhere at all, because you can't predict economic development,
any degree of accuracy over a hundred year period. If you could do that, you too have all the money in the world almost immediately. If you could generate a model that accurate you simply,
I knew it. No. So if you stack a bad economic model on our flawed climate model, you really do have a tower of will and they don't even do that. I mean
economic models that people like Nord house and so on use just take that metric for climate.
and the sign right, but I assume its accurate and they assume that you can put a monetary value on it.
And then you know tune the I mean you know.
model. There are various kinds of models that do these things, but I
I don't know what to say: I mean I dont think any
longer. That is the models
driving the perception.
I think it is the pure repetition of you know
This was understood from the beginning. In nineteen was eighty.
eight, when Jim Hansen gave testimony to the senate about finding
that there was global warming.
and the news weak news. We can cover.
And the cover showed the earth on fire.
And had the label, all scientists agree right right,
Now you know you had all sorts of funny problems at that time. Like most weathermen disagreed
and the american meteorological society decided they needed reeducation,
enlarge the institutions whose pretty effective and we could do.
about that. That's been well
well let's talk about this, because I was going to push back at you again playing devils advocates. So we hear all the time this. This idea that, while ninety seven percent of scientists agree that climate change is real,
which is different in saying that global warming is real by the way, but ninety seven percent of scientists agree in so and now we're hearing from doktor.
Richard linden and he doesn't degree but nine
seven percent of scientists do so why the
should we listen to doktor lindsey, and so, let's start with the ninety seven
sent of scientists agree claim well yeah, I mean there's a couple of aspects to it. There are some studies like one by a man called cook
we're just bogus. They ended up looking at fifty papers specially selected and found. You know this percentage, and this was taken apart.
wall street journal by spencer and best
and that was nonsense, but there are
may, where I think you could
There was a hundred percent agreement,
for instance, if you were to say see out too
say: greenhouse gas
and adding it will probably create some warming. I dont think too many people would disagree. I breathe
I think the only thing would be how much and many people would think I'd be negligible. But no one would this,
agree with that,
So, given this telephone game, where you can say something purpose,
the innocent and the pilot
patients can interpret as saying goes
agree that will have warming.
That warming, however small, leonardo assume, is the end of the world. Well, yeah this agreement
brain is not agreement with what that ultimately, claiming that it's an existential threat. I think, if you post it that way,
You know your friends has noticed that the? U whence I p c c and together
four pamela, climate change, never
It's working group, one which is the only part dealing with science, speaks of an existential threat just right
right, while longer has been telling people that constant yale nor his wit with his attempts to show
In some light, some intelligent light on this issue. He keeps saying well look I'm willing to accept the I p c c forecast, even though he has some problems with the forecast
said, look I'll give you that but
the negative consequences that are often assumed are simply not realists.
you don't even there I mean you know in the part I participated in, we said that you know the marvels cannot handle.
Water paper in clouds and thus there
no basis for our assertions about the feedbacks that was in there.
And it was interesting because the hope
features a little bit noddy. I was responsible with two other people for three pages.
For this, we traveled around the world twice or three times in the meetings.
And you had quote thousands of the world's leading climate scientists, which is appeal,
that probably had a few dozen you know
in my career:
and suddenly, when you piled in the money
in the. U s, I think the increase with
gore was maybe a factor of fifteen
you suddenly had thousands of cold climate scientists,
Now, no one in my department claimed they were climate scientists. Ninety ninety.
No, nobody ban! I you know, I didn't know everything about. You know paleo climate. I didn't know how you is
stay scores.
dynamics. I knew radiation, other people
What does right right
It's not nada. It's not a field of specialization climate science right!
it is the definitive into this.
the plenary thing and nobody has mastered all the discipline
trouble is when you increasing funding fifteen and the condition-
for funding was supporting the narrative they do that.
Get lots of people all of them, calling themselves climate scientists and most of all,
They have not familiarize themselves with the physics and chemistry and so on so yeah
This idiocy of impacts
so you know you know you ve seen it. You know
global warming and obesity, global warming, tiger pickets,
I mean anyone can get a piece of the action right right. Right,
But what happened to you on the funding front when you started to well lowly swim against the tide?
some degree. So really what you were doing was just pursuing your research right now I mean,
for a while. I would
in the nineties. I can t,
to get money from the national science foundation, but never for climate. Our work,
not hydra dynamic instability, other things that were
or meteor logical
but by the nineties,
nineties,
who is known well enough for my scepticism of climate, that people were rejected.
Saying you know you you someone.
money for that nasa, also
was pretty open in the nineties and so forth.
since my work on feedbacks, my colleagues were from nasa.
Ok, but by the end there was,
nasa administrator who is skeptical of climate and they got rid of him.
They got stick depend
and of energy was actually trying to keep balanced funding
and then the government has clamp down on them.
and
so that that also means that so that's very interesting to because it means that.
Not only does the narrative spin itself up to chase the
nothing, but any elements that would run
contra earlier to just vanish. Oh yeah, I mean at mit for instance
we had a celebration of the work of two distinguished faculty members who had died. Some you
ago this jewel johnny and add lorenz chaos, theory and so on, and you know because of my closeness to jewel. They asked me to speak on that
and the administration from mit decided no
in his position on climate and that we have a climate initiative. We can do that. The department was quite ok.
They found someone else to do that. Talk and I gave another talking so be it,
but the administration was upset with that
again. I mean now
really Paul? It's really appalling to hear of that sort of thing happening at mit. I mean I'm always
being that the engineers and stem types will have what would you say, clout and political conviction to push back against this hyper administrative,
invasion of the of the technical technical,
was in the universe of how mit I have to think things are very, very sad. That's variables.
Your holiness affairs hope springs a journal, but you know we just right through
The issue of the georgian abbot, tired of you, heard about tat. I asked
you don't worry him. He was going to give a talk, annexing planets,
Pretty me is keeping away from this issue in a way. Accept is easy,
but on the other hand he had written a piece with someone from Stanford for news week in which he said you know
they really didn't. Think diversity, equity and inclusion was that great they preferred
maintaining meritocracy. Why
having school choice for children, including poor children, blackmail
so that they could be qualified for equity. Instead,
that being the kind of trap.
and so am I ts administration.
Decided that this was not consistent
with mit's values, yep values,
statement. You know, then it got the point who speaks,
for our values and yeah. That is the question. All right
you know this is very much the case with our
every university, every professional society.
A new programme of this, you, the people in these the faculty lee people in professional societies, are busy.
They like their work. They are doing things I like, and so you often choose one person to be executive
director so and that their happy not to have to do it toward
the president of university or dean
not everyone wants to it. They dreaded
their science, research and research here. Well, that's a big problem because it leaves the
the strait of avenue open day, and they can speak for you
speak out of our values without ever polling. You know it's true added the professional society
it's true of the national academy. In the. U s,
There are a handful of people who can speak for the
innovation and the
organization is full of people who would rather do their work and happy to leave them that power yeah yeah. So have you what what's been hearing
experience with cancellation, you said it got harder and harder for you to get ground so that the best that that would run a lab at mit. It also makes it almost impossible to publish, as they say, editors get fired. If you get published, the boy kind thing is
among the peer review. Is they
insists that there be gatekeepers
Theo. Sending a paper and a lot of people have had exactly this experience is a first. It was pretty crude, sir,
the papers I published in the early nineties. I had submitted to science pointing out questions about climate
and they sent it back without review. Saying, there's no interest in this
oh yeah right, but
no interest rate, and then they got
a little bit more, I dont know if I'd quotas
instigated you
the two a journal.
and they would reject it immediately? Some good and it came that wasn't very effective because you send it to another journal so
happened is you'd. Typically and again, this is a common experience. You send it to a journal. They take above six seven months to review
and they send back the review that says accepted with major revision.
and so you spent six months making major revisions. If you pay attention to them, send it back, they take a nap
six seven months and rejected that got them right. Now.
me it for a year or so
sending its other journals
Well, it's also a very good way of wasting their time. Oh you might be actually trying to conduct research right
you know all these things happen
and even with my students, I couldn't tell them. You know
to oppose global warming.
It would ruin their careers, they couldn't even get a while.
well with with it was being associated with. You eventually was bad enough to make it difficult for your students to get a job, no
think so. Well, that's good! That's good! You know
that would have expected that to have happened. No is I
seen it happen, but you know I think most of my
I think, all of them pretty much have seen
clear of climate.
There are other things you can work on, just like with dory,
and I mean you know
he doesn't want to get in trouble. Climate pick, an area which isn't climate.
The only difficulty with it is found
In balance can give preference to comment,
on the other hand, they then do so many people too,
support climate alarm. That
They probably don't have enough money to support all those people who want to go figure of.
Well. The other problem, of course, is that the very people,
who were hell bent on
pursuing their actual research.
That's where all the real scientists are, and so now for innocent
nation, where the real scientists and
it would be the ones who want to do. The research are real
using to have anything to do with so called climate science. Then what happens is that were deprived of the very expert
voices that we would need to bring some sense
well done to the overarching narrative upon which so many of our economic decisions are made now so that just doesn't seem like very good state of affairs
good state of affairs, but its desired by the people who want this state of affairs right right right. So let me let me recapitulate cause we're running out of time on on this section, so we talked about. We talked about your career
and where you worked at mit and harvard primarily on the academic front, we talked about the fundamental and climate narrative, which is that, while climate is a major concern, it's changing primarily because the greenhouse effect that is a consequence of carbon dioxide. Most of that is warming. There are a variety of potential runaway positive feedback, loops involved,
you're not convinced of any of those propositions, that climate should be our major concern that the greenhouse effect as popularly conceptualize is an existential catastrophe that carbon dioxide,
Is a contributor again of existential proportions, or that the positive feedback loops that are often put before us are likely to manifest themselves. In fact, you think that the climate system has enough degrees of freedom to be relatively immune to large scale, porter
patients, yes, is decent summary here I led modify it a little bit. You know, I think feedbacks and tipping point, so slightly different
your conflicting again, I dont think these rights them has tipping points.
It has feed practically without the critical issues, but did not run or lazy backwards in it. Yes, okay, so it's the tipp, ok I'll, make sure that I
Use that technology from here on in and then we talked about the while we we tried to investigate some of the reasons why this more apocalyptic narrative has gained a foothold. We talked about the malthusian we talked about the the the political tilt of the funding regime. We talked a little bit more implicitly about the fact that more apocalyptic and doomsaying prognostications tend to attract a lot more attention, and so that's a big problem, constant rep.
Edition and the fact that children are made you Al Gore or no who's. John Kerry, who made this statement is just astounding and those astounding the talk,
In indonesia he said
thanks to the effect that we all know how difficult physics and chemistry can be. But climate is
enough for any child to understand right right,
when show you the level of his understanding. Well, yeah, but also the impact is, were starting to teach kindergarten, children climate.
Yeah, but you don't teach than his army fine idea right. Your work
is coming to an end in ten years, unless your parents, lobbying and made to our either got that's right, are driving their vehicle or hiding their house.
Or rambo worn by recharging their electric car well
all right, so so so let me
Let me offer a set of propositions to the listeners and and stop me or clarify what I'm saying if I get it wrong. So there are lots of drivers of climate variation. The big drivers have to do with oscillations in planetary orbit or others imperatives
act of or or other factors here there are so many factors that would impact it
there are ocean currents, you know
for instance. Again, it's a technical term, but the surface of the earth is not isolated.
No, it's not in equilibrium with space it has the,
Underneath it ocean circular
Patients have timescales
a thousand years, and they constantly be,
Fluid up and taking fluid away from the surface fluid is carrying heat
So the system is never quite an equilibrium. It varies on its own,
until we understand these systems perfectly well, we don't nessus,
we have a good theory for the fact that, in other words, the mediaeval warm period there was evident
such a warm period. You know two thousand years ago, all sorts of things. There were things.
Oddly enough I mean- let's say at the beginning of the nineteenth century, in new england, ever
town have a learning society and they had their
proceedings, said Anne
Would look at these old documents of ordinary people, ordinary educated people at that time,
discussing whether rome,
when they had vineyards and so on, and so on was warmer
then it is at their time. Then
still in little ice age
and they were wondering if it was just report ties or there was something really different had climate change, they were doing sophisticated thinking about it, which is virtually disappeared from world. We also talked about the ninety seven percent of scientists fallacy, and you pointed out that ninety seven percent of scientists slightly agree that carbon dioxide plays a role in greenhouse warming phenomenon here, but that doesn't mean that ninety seven percent
scientists believe that there are tipping points built into the climate and that we're going to slide off the edge of an abyss within the next hundred years? Oh knows are very different claims, no and and
as I say I mean I was speaking at a group. I think doctors for disaster prepared
This may give me some recognition. I decided that I would point out who opposed this narrative.
During the early ninetys sword, the nineties
And it was leading figures in the field.
And build night. The science man on tv or something.
I was saying that you know these are just all people who they'll die soon:
we won't have these objections and there were some truth to them:
he had directors of major labs directors of the marks plug
The lower heading, the european medium range weather, forecast english premier group, all of them objecting to it
presidents of the national academy song, but.
Starting in the nine these with the take over of major funding institutions, and so on,
going to get many younger people right right. Ok, so if we closed this off- and maybe we can do this- if you- if you maybe you could take thirty seconds and we'll get a lot of relatively young people watching this youtube channel,
and you know their worried because they ve been fed and non ending diet of apocalyptic catastrophe and oppressive patriarchy, since they were like three and so,
if you wanted to address them directly,
say what you wanted to say about what we can expect over the next fifty years led sake as that's kind of not a bad lifespan viewpoint or seventy five years. What what? What do you think? What should we be
complaining on the climate front looks the same. Is we ve seen
you'll see variations.
they ve always occurred. There will be places like the gulf coast of the. U s
which had ridden citrus country in the forties and now is to call for centuries.
Other things will change things, always change a bit.
There may be no several inches of sea level rise, but novel
more there's, no evidence it'll be much more you'll still have,
a situation where, if you live in new england, locked
Remark you waiting
Yet in the weather. Will change will still be true.
and you know that's life, that's why you have overcoats and gloves. Swimsuits
And then there would be nothing special, let's not cataclysmic,
not going to be inundated with
hungry Paul
there's fleeing the already you're not going to have
cities under water
and you know get on with your life. But the question is
if your teacher insists on you're saying the world
is coming to an end, or you want
and promoted,
sure what I should tell. While I've told I told my students, my whole life said now, you don't don't false fireworks
because the thing is you know our italian experiment psychologically allurement. It's quite interesting
and even be valid somewhere,
you bring people in the lab,
young people and give them
Little attitudes, questioner,
regarding their views on a particular topic. Maybe abortion, maybe
I'm at whatever some topic, that's a relatively contentious. Then you have them sit down and write a five hundred word essay arguing against their powers,
and now they know they're doing this in the lab. Then you bring him in a week later and you give them the same political attitudes questionnaire. You find that their attitudes have shifted substantially.
and significantly towards the direction of their writing. And so the problem is, you can fall
Find the word your words without falsifying you think, I'm too young because year your words construct your perceptions, and so, if
in to the teachers ideology. We found this.
When we are looking at what predicted politically correct beliefs so
Trade agreeableness did being
female did,
having a lower verbal, I q did
but another major predictor was whether non nude taken any courses at all that were explicitly politically correct in their orientation. So you have to be very careful
while kowtowing to the ideology, because you can't get away with it, you your falsify your own psyche. If you're false fire words, I think
I agree with what you are saying, but
nineteen. Eighty four you know was
a fairly good example of how society can break that down.
You have, and so my youve maintain your ground. You maintain your ground. How come age? In other words, you know it's the business that for
science is of an older generation up to mine,
much maybe a little further,
We could develop reputations are worth product over a freer time.
The other thing is theoreticians, don't you
this much money as experimenters.
And so I needed money just to support students.
I didn't need equipment. I didn't need very much
anything else right right.
But it was mainly that people were advanced
a career. If you were a director of a lab and so on, if you were near retirement, you could speak freely. The more sad word, the weather men
The people, the media, forecasters and so on, who had a love of meteorology in many
cases were very knowledgeable,
objected to this by law,
showed go on a train right or something
meteorologists from the
you will see me in there and say thank you for that, but the media have been firing. People who go
a tribute every whether that the climate.
Right, meteorologists, no, this is nonsense, but they just
oh, are being pressured immensely and we were lucky. Our jobs were not at issue we tenure and so on,
yeah, but younger people don't have that luxury.
Yeah well, I'm being counseled is no fun. I mean I've known like two hundred people have been cancelled and its
equivalent to a major illness is no joke. So all right, sir,
well, look for everybody who's been watching in listening on youtube. Thank you very much
your time and attention and doktor linden. Thank you very much
For your com and dispassionate
I'm kind, I would say analysis of the current situation
for agreeing to speak to me today and to do,
would be providing all the people who are watching in listening with the fruits of the earth,
aids of labour and if I'm gonna talk,
doktor limbs and from other
half an hour on the daily wire plus platform, by the way, probably on more biographical front, I'm interested in how is career developed, hello,
one. I would encourage you to continue listening to my conversation with my guest on daily wire plus dot com.
Transcript generated on 2023-01-06.